Meeting the governance challenges of integrated health and social care

Background

Many countries are experimenting with novel ways of organising and delivering more integrated health and social care. Governance is relatively neglected as a focus of attention in this context but addressing governance challenges is key for successful collaboration.

Methods

Cross-country case analysis involving document review and semi-structured interviews with 27 local, regional and national level stakeholders in Italy, the Netherlands and Scotland. We used the Transparency, Accountability, Participation, Integrity and Capability (TAPIC) framework to structure our analytical enquiry to explore factors that influence the governance arrangements in each system.

Results

Governance arrangements ranged from informal agreements in the Netherlands to mandated integration in Scotland. Novel service models were generally participative involving a wide range of stakeholders, including the public, although integration was seen to be driven, largely, from a health perspective. In Italy and Scotland some reversion to ‘command & control’ was reported in response to the imperatives of the Covid-19 pandemic. Policies, budgets, auditing and reporting systems that are clearly aligned at all levels were seen to help with implementing innovations in service organisation. Where alignment was lacking, cooperation and integration was suboptimal, regardless of whether governance arrangements were statutory or not. There was wide recognition of the importance of buy-in. Enablers of greater engagement included visible leadership, time and long-standing working relationships. Lack of suitable indicators and openness to data sharing to measure integration hindered working relationships and thus the successful delivery of integrated services.

Conclusions

Our study provides important insights into how to more effectively and efficiently govern service delivery structures within care systems. We will discuss approaches to governance that help support more resilient integrated care systems.

Key messages

• Different governance arrangements face common challenges to greater integration of care. Enablers include strong leadership, inclusivity and openness to work across traditional boundaries.

• Meeting the governance challenges of integrated health and social care requires clear lines of accountability, aligned policies, budgets and reporting systems.

Exploring the link between cancer policies and cancer survival: a comparison of seven countries

Background

Disparity in cancer survival across countries has been linked to variation in cancer policy delivery but there is lack of empirical evidence for this association. We traced the evolution of cancer policies in 20 jurisdictions in Australia, Canada, Denmark, Ireland, Norway, New Zealand and the UK since 1995 and present the findings of an exploratory analysis linking cancer policy consistency to cancer survival.

Methods

We systematically searched and analysed national/regional cancer plans and strategies, mapping timelines of cancer policy evolution. For 10 jurisdictions, evidence was synthesised into five categories: oversight function; cancer plan; implementation plan; budget for plan implementation; and evaluation. We assigned scores evaluating whether a category was present or absent, and weighted scores for consistency. Summed scores were correlated with trends in survival from seven cancers between 1995-2014.

Results

All ten jurisdictions had implemented a high-level structure overseeing, steering or delivering cancer control policies (1995 - 2014); all had also published at least one major cancer plan. There was great variation in oversight mechanisms, ranging from institutionalising cancer control (New South Wales, Ontario) to cancer steering groups or taskforces (Denmark, Northern Ireland, Wales). Frequency and consistency of cancer plans also varied, from a succession of plans that build on each other (Denmark, New South Wales, Ontario) to the publication of isolated plans (New Zealand, Northern Ireland). We found a positive, albeit weak, correlation of cancer policy consistency and improvements in survival over time for six of the seven cancers.

Conclusions

Jurisdictions that have implemented consistent cancer control policies over time tended to be more successful in improving survival for a wide range of cancers. Our findings can help guide policymakers seeking approaches and frameworks to improve cancer services and, ultimately, cancer outcomes.

Key messages

• Sustained and consistent strategic cancer planning and investment are crucial for ensuring better patient outcomes, and this requires strong and sustained commitment at all levels.

• The findings can help guide policymakers seeking approaches and frameworks to improve cancer services and, ultimately, cancer outcomes.

Characterization of Signalling Pathways That Link Apoptosis and Autophagy to Cell Death Induced by Estrone Analogues Which Reversibly Depolymerize Microtubules

The search for novel anti-cancer compounds which can circumvent chemotherapeutic drug resistance and limit systemic toxicity remains a priority. 2-Ethyl-3-O-sulphamoyl-estra-1,3,5(10)15-tetraene-3-ol-17one (ESE-15-one) and 2-ethyl-3-O-sulphamoyl-estra-1,3,5(10)16-tetraene (ESE-16) are sulphamoylated 2-methoxyestradiol (2-ME) analogues designed by our research team. Although their cytotoxicity has been demonstrated in vitro, the temporal and mechanistic responses of the initiated intracellular events are yet to be determined. In order to do so, assays investigating the compounds' effects on microtubules, cell cycle progression, signalling cascades, autophagy and apoptosis were conducted using HeLa cervical- and MDA-MB-231 metastatic breast cancer cells. Both compounds reversibly disrupted microtubule dynamics as an early event by binding to the microtubule colchicine site, which blocked progression through the cell cycle at the G₁/S- and G₂/M transitions. This was supported by increased pRB and p27^Kip1 phosphorylation. Induction of apoptosis with time-dependent signalling involving the p-JNK, Erk1/2 and Akt/mTOR pathways and loss of mitochondrial membrane potential was demonstrated. Inhibition of autophagy attenuated the apoptotic response. In conclusion, the 2-ME analogues induced a time-dependent cross-talk between cell cycle checkpoints, apoptotic signalling and autophagic processes, with an increased reactive oxygen species formation and perturbated microtubule functioning appearing to connect the processes. Subtle differences in the responses were observed between the two compounds and the different cell lines.

The role of leadership in driving change in cancer survival outcomes in seven high income countries

Background

There is well-established variation in cancer survival across high-income countries with seemingly-similar health systems. There is much research on reasons for these differences, but the role of leadership has been under-researched despite being one of the WHO 'building blocks' that underpin a functioning health system. Leadership is variously defined as including governance, stewardship, responsibility and accountability. As part of the International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership, this study looked at these diverse aspects of leadership to identify drivers of change and improvement across a range of high-income countries.

Methods

Cancer strategy documents were analysed from 22 jurisdictions: Australia (3 states), Canada (10 provinces), Denmark, Ireland, New Zealand, Norway, and UK (4 countries). Key informants in 15 of these jurisdictions, representing a range of stakeholders, were recruited through a combination of purposive and 'snowball' strategies, and invited to participate in semi-structured interviews. Documents and interview transcripts were analysed using a thematic approach.

Results

Different facets of leadership emerged: diffused vs centralised (including the central role of a cancer agency in some places); national, regional and local leadership structures; links between primary and secondary care. This study, however, demonstrated a central role for sustained leadership and political commitment, crucial for initiating and maintaining progress, as was a coherent vision that supported the implementation of national policies locally. Clinical leadership emerged as vital for translating policy into action.

Conclusions

Improving cancer outcomes is challenging and complex but is unlikely to be achieved without effective leadership and sustained political commitment that can create effective co-ordination of care.

Key messages

Different facets of leadership of the cancer care system emerged as important when exploring the reasons for variations in cancer outcomes in high-income countries. The persistence of these variations is unacceptable. Change will require political commitment and effective leadership, especially by clinicians.

Clinical and policy contexts for cancer care: Evidence from Denmark, Ireland and Ontario (Canada)

Background

We know there are large differences in cancer survival between countries. We know much less about why they exist and persist. In the International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership, we are seeking to understand the influences on patient journey in different countries. In this study we explore how health system factors impact on cancer care in Denmark, Ireland, and Ontario (Canada) to identify common themes, national specificities, and messages for other health care providers.

Methods

We systematically analysed (i) cancer policy and strategy documents from the three jurisdictions, published between 1995-2014 (n = 20) and (ii) interviews with key informants representing government, health services providers, professional bodies and patient organisations (n = 25). We thematically analysed both datasets using NVivo.

Results

Five themes emerged from the document review and were confirmed by interview: governance, quality assurance, service delivery, infrastructure and workforce. All three jurisdictions introduced a designated organisation to lead, monitor and, in Ontario, fund cancer services. Reducing wait times was prioritized, with the expansion of diagnostic capacity from the 2000s, for example. Concentrating services into fewer specialist centres was widely viewed as crucial for improving survival for some cancers. Yet policy intent was not always successfully realised on the ground, with lack of sustained investment, organisational barriers or logistical challenges impeding implementation. Jurisdictions face particular challenges maintaining and upgrading infrastructure and equipment, and recruiting and retaining critical staff, specifically in radiology and primary care.

Conclusions

Cancer care is complex and understanding the interrelationships between factors acting at different levels of the health system is important to improve outcomes. Continued investment in infrastructure and people will be essential.

Key messages

Countries face common challenges in creating health systems that optimise cancer outcomes. Sustained investment in equipment and human resources will be critical to optimise cancer care and survival.

Amenable mortality in the EU-has the crisis changed its course?

Background

Did the global financial crisis and its aftermath impact upon the performance of health systems in Europe? We investigated trends in amenable and other mortality in the EU since 2000 across 28 EU countries.

Methods

We use WHO detailed mortality files from 28 EU countries to calculate age-standardized deaths rates from amenable and other causes. We then use joinpoint regression to analyse trends in mortality before and after the onset of the economic crisis in Europe in 2008.

Results

Amenable and other mortality have declined in the EU since 2000, albeit faster for amenable mortality. We observed increases in amenable mortality following the global financial crisis for females in Estonia [from -4.53 annual percentage change (APC) in 2005-12 to 0.03 APC in 2012-14] and Slovenia (from -4.22 APC in 2000-13 to 0.73 in 2013-15) as well as males and females in Greece(males: from -2.93 APC in 2000-10 to 0.01 APC in 2010-13; females: from -3.48 APC in 2000-10 to 0.06 APC in 2010-13). Other mortality continued to decline for these populations. Increases in deaths from infectious diseases before and after the crisis played a substantial part in reversals in Estonia, Slovenia and Greece.

Conclusion

There is evidence that amenable mortality rose in Greece and, among females in Estonia and Slovenia. However, in most countries, trends in amenable mortality rates appeared to be unaffected by the crisis.

Quality of care assessment for people with multimorbidity

Multimorbidity, the simultaneous presence of multiple health conditions in an individual, is an increasingly common phenomenon globally. The systematic assessment of the quality of care delivered to people with multimorbidity will be key to informing the organization of services for meeting their complex needs. Yet, current assessments tend to focus on single conditions and do not capture the complex processes that are required for providing care for people with multimorbidity. We conducted a scoping review on quality of care and multimorbidity in selected databases in June 2018 and identified 87 documents as eligible for review, predominantly original research and reviews from North America, Europe and Australasia and mostly frequently related to primary care settings. We synthesized data qualitatively in terms of perceived challenges, evidence and proposed metrics. Findings reveal that the association between quality of care and multimorbidity is complex and depends on the conditions involved (quality appears to be higher for those with concordant conditions, and lower in the presence of discordant conditions) and the approach used for measuring quality (quality appears to be higher in people with multimorbidity when measured using condition/drug-specific process or intermediate outcome indicators, and worse when using patient-centred reports of experiences of care). People with discordant multimorbidity may be disadvantaged by current approaches to quality assessment, particularly when they are linked to financial incentives. A better understanding of models of care that best meet the needs of this group is needed for developing appropriate quality assessment frameworks. Capturing patient preferences and values and incorporate patients' voices in the form of patient-reported experiences and outcomes of care will be critical towards the achievement of high-performing health systems that are responsive to the needs of people with multimorbidity.

[On the road to deciphering the tubulin code: focus on acetylation and detyrosination]

Microtubules are cytoskeletal fibers formed by the assembly of α- and β-tubulin heterodimers. They contribute to cell morphology, mobility and polarity, as well as to cellular transport processes and cell division. The microtubular network constantly adapts to cellular needs and may be composed of very dynamic or more stable microtubules. To regulate their diverse functions in a spatio-temporal manner, microtubules are subjected to numerous reversible post-translational modifications, which generate the "tubulin code". This review focuses on two modifications characteristic of stable microtubules - acetylation and detyrosination of α-tubulin - and their deregulation in certain pathologies.

Novel in silico-designed estradiol analogues are cytotoxic to a multidrug-resistant cell line at nanomolar concentrations

PURPOSE

2-Methoxyestradiol (2ME) is a promising anti-cancer agent that disrupts the integrity and dynamics of the spindle network. In order to overcome the pharmacokinetic constraints of this compound, a panel of sulphamoylated estradiol analogues were in silico-designed by our laboratory. In this study, we analysed the potential of each analogue to induce cell death on a panel of cancer cell lines. Moreover, the mechanism of action of the most effective compounds was determined.

METHODS

Cytotoxicity screening of the compounds and intermediates was performed on five different cancer cell lines to determine IG50 values. An in vitro tubulin polymerization assay was done to determine the effect of the drugs on tubulin polymerization while their intracellular effects on the microtubule network were assessed by immunofluorescence microscopy.

RESULTS

IG50 calculations showed that the sulphamoylated analogues induce cytotoxicity at nanomolar concentrations in all cell lines, including the P-glycoprotein pump overexpressing multidrug-resistant uterine sarcoma cell line. The non-sulphamoylated compounds were only cytotoxic at micromolar ranges, if at all. The sulphamoylated compounds inhibited pure tubulin polymerization in a dose-dependent manner and induced microtubule destruction in cells after 24-h exposure.

CONCLUSION

Results revealed that the novel sulphamoylated 2ME derivatives have potential as anti-cancer drugs, possibly even against chemoresistant cancer cells. These compounds disrupt the intracellular microtubule integrity which leads to mitotic block of the cells.

Anthropogenic 129I in the atmosphere: overview over major sources, transport processes and deposition pattern

Wet and, to a lesser extent, dry deposition of atmospheric (129)I are known to represent the dominating processes responsible for (129)I in continental environmental samples that are remote from (129)I sources and not directly influenced by any liquid (129)I release of nuclear installations. Up to now, however, little is known about the major emitters and the related global deposition pattern of (129)I. In this work an overview over major sources of (129)I is given, and hitherto unknown time-dependent releases from these were estimated. Total gaseous (129)I releases from the US and former Soviet reprocessing facilities Hanford, Savannah River, Mayak, Seversk and Zheleznogorsk were found to have been 0.53, 0.27, 1.05, 0.23 and 0.14TBq, respectively. These facilities were thus identified as major airborne (129)I emitters. The global deposition pattern due to the (129)I released, depending on geographic latitude and longitude, and on time was studied using a box model describing the global atmospheric transport and deposition of (129)I. The model predictions are compared to (129)I concentrations measured by means of Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (AMS) in water samples that were collected from various lakes in Asia, Africa, America and New Zealand, and to published values. As a result, both pattern and temporal evolution of (129)I deposition values measured in and calculated for different types of environmental samples are, in general, in good agreement. This supports our estimate on atmospheric (129)I releases and the considered substantial transport and deposition mechanisms in our model calculations.

Intercomparison study on (152)Eu gamma ray and (36)Cl AMS measurements for development of the new Hiroshima-Nagasaki Atomic Bomb Dosimetry System 2002 (DS02)

In the process of developing a new dosimetry system for atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki (DS02), an intercomparison study between (152)Eu and (36)Cl measurements was proposed, to reconcile the discrepancy previously observed in the Hiroshima data between measurements and calculations of thermal neutron activation products. Nine granite samples, exposed to the atomic-bomb radiation in Hiroshima within 1,200 m of the hypocenter, as well as mixed standard solutions containing known amounts of europium and chlorine that were neutron-activated by a (252)Cf source, were used for the intercomparison. Gamma-ray spectrometry for (152)Eu was carried out with ultra low-background Ge detectors at the Ogoya Underground Laboratory, Kanazawa University, while three laboratories participated in the (36)Cl measurement using accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS): The Technical University of Munich, Germany, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, USA and the University of Tsukuba, Japan. Measured values for the mixed standard solutions showed good agreement among the participant laboratories. They also agreed well with activation calculations, using the neutron fluences monitored during the (252)Cf irradiation, and the corresponding activation cross-sections taken from the JENDL-3.3 library. The measured-to-calculated ratios obtained were 1.02 for (152)Eu and 0.91-1.02 for (36)Cl, respectively. Similarly, the results of the granite intercomparison indicated good agreement with the DS02 calculation for these samples. An average measured-to-calculated ratio of 0.98 was obtained for all granite intercomparison measurements. The so-called neutron discrepancy that was previously observed and that which included increasing measured-to-calculated ratios for thermal neutron activation products for increasing distances beyond 1,000 m from the hypocenter was not seen in the results of the intercomparison study. The previously claimed discrepancy could be explained by insufficient understanding of the measured data.

129I measurements in lake water for an estimate of regional 129I depositions

Estimates of (129)I depositions from (129)I releases of reprocessing plants are so far based on measurements of soil and rain water samples. Because (129)I concentrations in these samples show a highly temporal and spatial variability, the (129)I deposition values deduced from single measurements cannot be seen as representative for a larger area. Here it is proposed to use lake water as an archive for former (129)I depositions, to overcome these limitations. If the limnological parameters of any lake are known, the local (129)I deposition flux can be deduced which is temporally averaged over the flushing time, and spatially averaged over the catchment area of the lake. Samples were collected from various European lakes and from Lake Baikal (Russia). The (129)I concentration in these samples was measured by means of accelerator mass spectrometry, and values between 0.3 and 8.1x10(8) at/l were obtained. Deduced (129)I deposition fluxes averaged over the flushing times of the lakes range from 0.3 to 9.3x10(12) at/m(2) y. The (129)I deposition fluence measured for Lake Baikal is attributed predominantly to releases from the former Soviet reprocessing facilities Chelyabinsk, Tomsk and Krasnoyarsk, while the (129)I deposition fluxes deduced for all other lakes are attributed to releases from the European reprocessing activities at Sellafield, Marcoule and La Hague.

Investigation of the aluminium biokinetics in humans: a 26Al tracer study

Despite the well-known toxicity of aluminium in chronic renal failure, a solid database on its biokinetics has been difficult to establish. A highly sensitive method using (26)Al as tracer and accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) for detection was used. No perturbing background and saturation effects were taken into account using a delta function input of aluminium in time. Aluminium absorption, distribution, speciation and excretion in six healthy volunteers and in two patients with chronic renal failure were investigated following administration of a single oral or i.v. dose of (26)Al. Serial samples of blood and urine were taken. In a speciation study, the time dependence of the binding of (26)Al to low-molecular weight molecules in serum was investigated. The measured data were compared and interpreted with simulations in an open compartmental model. Fractional absorption, distribution, excretion and time constants for the aluminium transport were determined. Typical intestinal absorption rates for AlCl(3) were found to be in the range of 10(-3). The ultrafiltrable percentage of aluminium in serum of one volunteer was estimated to be 5.6+/-0.8%. Differences between healthy volunteers and patients with chronic renal failure were deduced. The employed method using (26)Al and ams has proven to be highly sensitive for investigations of aluminium biokinetics at the ultra-trace element level. With the model, the measured values of (26)Al in serum and urine were used to precisely determine absorption, speciation, distribution, retention and excretion of aluminium in humans.

A comparison of the alcohol-attributable mortality in four European countries

BACKGROUND

Deaths due to alcohol consumption are an important component of all-cause mortality, particularly premature mortality. However, there are considerable regional variations, the reasons for which are unclear.

METHODS

Estimates were made as reliably as possibly using vital statistics and best estimates of risk of the alcohol-attributable mortality, by age, sex and cause for four European countries (England and Wales, Germany, Denmark and Italy). Twenty-seven alcohol-related conditions were considered including the possible cardio-protective effects of alcohol.

RESULTS

It was estimated that there are approximately 2% fewer deaths annually in England and Wales than would be expected in a non-drinking population and 0.3% fewer deaths among East German females. In West Germany, Denmark, Italy and among East German males there are more deaths caused by alcohol than are prevented (between 0.7 and 2.6% of all deaths). The highest age-specific proportion of alcohol-attributable deaths is found in East Germany where around 30% of deaths among males aged 25-44 years are due to drinking. Among young men in all four countries the largest contributor to alcohol-related deaths is road traffic accidents involving alcohol.

CONCLUSIONS

Possible explanations for the variation in alcohol-attributable deaths between countries include different underlying heart disease rates, different patterns of alcohol consumption and beverage preferences, and different use of mortality classification. Differences in the reported alcohol consumption levels explain little of the variation in alcohol-attributable deaths. Estimating alcohol-attributable mortality by age and sex across countries may be a useful indicator for developing alcohol strategies and exploring ways of preventing premature mortality.

36Cl measurements in Hiroshima granite samples as part of an international intercomparison study. Results from the Munich group

Within the effort to resolve the so-called Hiroshima neutron discrepancy, an international intercomparison study has been carried out on granite samples from Hiroshima, with participating institutions from Japan, the US, and Germany. (36)Cl and (152)Eu produced in these samples by thermal neutrons from the A-bomb explosion were assessed independently by means of different techniques. At the Maier-Leibnitz-Laboratory near Munich, Germany, (36)Cl concentrations were measured by accelerator mass spectrometry. Measured (36)Cl/Cl ratios ranged from 1,670 x 10(-13) (at a distance of 146 m from the hypocenter) to 2.2 x 10(-13) (at a distance of 1,163 m from the hypocenter). One granite sample not exposed to A-bomb neutrons was measured as a control, and a (36)Cl/Cl ratio of 2.6 x 10(-13) was obtained. On average, our experimental results are 20-30% lower than those provided by model calculations based on the dosimetry system DS86. The results presented here do not support previous assessments of (36)Cl, (60)Co, and (152)Eu which had suggested much larger thermal neutron fluences than those calculated on the basis of DS86 for distances from the hypocenter of more than 1,000 m.

Infectious diseases before and after German unification: trends in mortality and morbidity

After the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 the former communist countries of central and eastern Europe underwent substantial social and economic changes that had a major impact on health. The situation of the former German Democratic Republic was unique in that its existing institutions were replaced rapidly and it was quickly integrated economically with the West. This study describes recent trends in morbidity and mortality from infectious diseases in East and West Germany before and after unification using routine data from 1980 onwards. Substantial differences in morbidity and mortality resulting from infectious diseases were observed between East and West Germany. These seem to be the complex result of societal and health system differences in both parts of Germany before unification, differing population dynamics and health behaviours, and an increasing westernisation in the eastern part of Germany during recent years.

Changing life expectancy in Romania after the transition

BACKGROUND

While Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic have seen impressive gains in life expectancy in the 1990s, Romania has not. In contrast with the other countries, there has been very little research on the causes of the pattern of mortality seen in Romania.

OBJECTIVES

To describe the trends in life expectancy at birth in Romania after the political transition in 1989 and to evaluate the contribution of deaths from different causes and different ages to these changes.

METHODS

Decomposition of life expectancy by age and cause of death using routine data on mortality for the years 1990, 1996, and 1998; comparison of death rates by age, sex, and cause of death.

RESULTS

Romania has experienced an overall decline of 1.71 years of life expectancy at birth from 1990 to 1996 in men and 0.54 years in women. The major contribution to this decline was an increase in mortality from cardiovascular diseases and diseases of the digestive system, in particular cirrhosis, among the middle aged and elderly. The recovery observed in 1998, of 1.12 years in men and 0.89 years in women, was mainly caused by a reduction in deaths from cardiovascular disease in the middle aged and elderly. Infant and early childhood mortality fell throughout the period but there was an increase of approximately 40% in mortality at age 5-9 that was almost entirely attributable to AIDS.

CONCLUSION

This is the first Romanian study that describes the evolution of life expectancy after transition. Romania may at last be beginning to follow the path of improving adult mortality seen in the early 1990s in some of its neighbours. It has, however, been unique in eastern Europe in experiencing increasing childhood mortality. This is attributable to an epidemic of paediatric AIDS, consequent on the tragically inappropriate policies adopted in the 1980s.

Temporal and spatial pattern of infant mortality in Germany after unification

OBJECTIVES

After unification in 1990 the two parts of Germany underwent a complex process that has led to convergence of infant mortality. The pattern of change did, however, differ in east and west. This study investigates whether these differences conceal a complex pattern of heterogeneity at the regional level.

METHODS

Examination of routine data on infant, neonatal and postneonatal mortality. Time trends in the 16 federal states of Germany (Länder) from 1991 to 1997 were studied using a log-linear model.

RESULTS

In 1991, infant mortality was higher in almost all eastern Länder than in the west. By 1997, this east-west gap had disappeared. Over this period, infant mortality fell in all Länder but one. The decline was steepest in the east, ranging from 31% to 52%. Improvements were largely due to steep declines in both neonatal and postneonatal mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows that, at the time of unification, there was an almost complete demarcation between east and west, a pattern that disappeared by 1997. There is, however, still a substantial regional variation in infant mortality that is largely determined by postneonatal mortality.

What is happening to the health of the Croatian population?

AIM

To describe the problems in the interpretation of Croatian mortality data and explore possible reasons for the recorded increase in mortality in the 1990-1999 period, particularly related to different methods of collection and estimation of data on deaths and population.

METHODS

Numbers of recorded deaths and population estimates were first obtained from the Croatian Institute for Public Health and examined in detail. The Institute used population estimates supplied by the Croatian Statistics Bureau, which included de jure population data (including all Croatian citizens wherever they live) until 1996 and de facto population data (including only population living in Croatia at least for a year, irrespective of citizenship) since 1996. A different set of population estimates based on de facto estimates since 1992 was obtained from the Croatian Bureau of Statistics. We examined trends in age- and sex-specific death rates from major causes in 1990-1999 period, using the mortality data from the Croatian Institute for Public Health and both sets of population estimates. Lung cancer as a cause of death was examined in more detail, since it is relatively stable over short periods of time. Interviews were undertaken with key informants to identify the reasons for any discrepancies.

RESULTS

In Croatia, relatively stable death rates from lung cancer in men ranged from 84/100,000 in 1990 to 79/ 100,000 in 1995. In 1996, a marked discontinuity appeared in the Croatian data, with a 14% increase compared to 1995 (from 79/100,000 to 91/100,000) and a further increase in 1999 (94/100,000), which is not credible on the basis of the natural history of lung cancer. Analysis of mortality rates with de facto population estimates showed more gradual increase from 1992-1996. Methods used to estimate population and mortality during the 1990s were inconsistent and misleading. At present, it is impossible to be certain about the true level of mortality in Croatia during 1990s, as the numerator (deaths) and denominator (population) were incompatible until 1998.

CONCLUSION

Major problems in data collection would have been identified if the investigation of unexpected mortality trends in Croatia in the 1990s had been done. Systematic analysis of health patterns should be done as soon as data from the 2001 census become available. Capacities in public health should be strengthened to make this possible. This issue has received little recognition from the international donor organizations, particularly those that use health data.

Compartmental model for aluminium biokinetics

An open compartmental model for describing aluminium biokinetics is presented with a central compartment consisting of transferrin- and citrate-bound aluminium in blood plasma and interstitial fluid, and three peripheral compartments for organs, muscles and bones and the gastro-intestinal tract. The rate constants describing the transport of aluminium are normalized to an estimated plasma volume and do not depend on the size of the individual. Effects due to changes in compartmental sizes or to transport characteristics are described. The model is applied to biokinetics studies of a volunteer after i.v. administration and of Sprague-Dawley rats with different iron status and with nephrectomization after p.o. administration of 26Al.

Changing mortality patterns in East and West Germany and Poland. I: long term trends (1960-1997)

OBJECTIVES

To examine the long term evolution of mortality in the former German Democratic Republic (GDR) in the period from 1960 and its specific position in health terms compared with the Federal Republic (FRG) in the west and Poland in the east.

METHODS

Decomposition of life expectancy by age and cause of death. Differences in life expectancy at birth between the former GDR and the old FRG were decomposed by age using data on all cause mortality for the period 1960 to 1997. Changes in life expectancy over time by cause of death were examined using data for 1974 and 1989 for both parts of Germany and for 1974 and 1988 for Poland.

RESULTS

Male life expectancy in the two parts of Germany diverged twice, in the mid-1960s, favouring the GDR, and in the mid-1970s, giving increasing advantage to the FRG, while female life expectancy remained similar until the mid-1970s and began to diverge thereafter. The initial advantage of the GDR was mainly attributable to an improving mortality rate among children compared with that in the west in both sexes. During the 1980s, mortality among men over 15 and women over 40 steadily worsened relative to their western counterparts, although men were doing considerably better than those in Poland who actually experienced deterioration. In the FRG, falling death rates among adults of all ages have contributed substantially to the improvement in life expectancy between 1974 and 1989, largely attributable to falling deaths from cardiovascular disease and from injuries at younger adult ages. In Poland, death rates among male adults have risen at all ages over 35, mostly attributable to worsening death rates from cardiovascular disease and neoplasms while women experienced stagnation. The GDR showed a small worsening among men under 60, counterbalanced by improvements among those over 60, and some improvement in women, attributable to falling deaths from cardiovascular disease among the middle aged and elderly.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides further evidence for the complexity of the east-west mortality differential emerging in the 1960s in Europe, highlighting the intermediate position in health terms the former GDR occupied during much of the communist period. Further research is required to assess the underlying causes for the specific position of the former GDR between east and west.

Changing mortality patterns in East and West Germany and Poland. II: short-term trends during transition and in the 1990s

OBJECTIVES

To examine trends in life expectancy at birth and age and cause specific patterns of mortality in the former German Democratic Republic (GDR) and Poland during political transition and throughout the 1990s in both parts of Germany and in Poland.

METHODS

Decomposition of life expectancy by age and cause of death. Changes in life expectancy during transition by cause of death were examined using data for 1988/89 and 1990/91 for the former GDR and Poland; examination of life expectancy changes after transition were based on 1992-97 data for Germany and 1991-96 data for Poland.

RESULTS

In both the former GDR and Poland male life expectancy at birth declined by almost one year during transition, mainly attributable to rising death rates from external causes and circulatory diseases. Female life expectancy in Poland deteriorated by 0.3 years, largely attributable to increasing circulatory mortality among the old, while in East German female rising death rates in children and young adults were nearly outbalanced by declining circulatory mortality among those over 70. Between 1991/92 and 1996/97, male life expectancy at birth increased by 2.4 years in the former GDR, 1.2 years in old Federal Republic, and 2.0 years in Poland (women: 2.3, 0.9, and 1.2 years). In East Germany and Poland, the overall improvement was largely attributable to falling mortality among men aged 40-64, while those over 65 contributed the largest proportion to life expectancy gains in women. The change in deaths among men aged 15-39 accounted for 0.4 of a year to life expectancy at birth in East Germany and Poland, attributable largely to greater decreases from external causes. Among those over 40, absolute contributions to changing life expectancy were greater in the former GDR than in the other two entities in both sexes, largely attributable to circulatory diseases. A persisting East-west life expectancy gap in Germany of 2.1 years in men in 1997 was largely attributable to external causes, diseases of the digestive system and circulatory diseases. Higher death rates from circulatory diseases among the elderly largely explain the female life expectancy gap of approximately one year.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides further insights into the health effects of political transition. Post-transition improvements in life expectancy and mortality have been much steeper in East Germany compared with Poland. Changes in dietary pattern and, in Germany, medical care may have been important factors in shaping post-transition mortality trends.