Early Detection of Novel SARS-CoV-2 Variants from Urban and Rural Wastewater through Genome Sequencing and Machine Learning

Genome sequencing from wastewater has emerged as an accurate and cost-effective tool for identifying SARS-CoV-2 variants. However, existing methods for analyzing wastewater sequencing data are not designed to detect novel variants that have not been characterized in humans. Here, we present an unsupervised learning approach that clusters co-varying and time-evolving mutation patterns leading to the identification of SARS-CoV-2 variants. To build our model, we sequenced 3,659 wastewater samples collected over a span of more than two years from urban and rural locations in Southern Nevada. We then developed a multivariate independent component analysis (ICA)-based pipeline to transform mutation frequencies into independent sources with co-varying and time-evolving patterns and compared variant predictions to >5,000 SARS-CoV-2 clinical genomes isolated from Nevadans. Using the source patterns as data-driven reference "barcodes", we demonstrated the model's accuracy by successfully detecting the Delta variant in late 2021, Omicron variants in 2022, and emerging recombinant XBB variants in 2023. Our approach revealed the spatial and temporal dynamics of variants in both urban and rural regions; achieved earlier detection of most variants compared to other computational tools; and uncovered unique co-varying mutation patterns not associated with any known variant. The multivariate nature of our pipeline boosts statistical power and can support accurate and early detection of SARS-CoV-2 variants. This feature offers a unique opportunity for novel variant and pathogen detection, even in the absence of clinical testing.

Identification of a rare SARS-CoV-2 XL hybrid variant in wastewater and the subsequent discovery of two infected individuals in Nevada

The identification of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants can predict new patterns of COVID-19 community transmission and lead to the deployment of public health resources. However, increased access to at-home antigen tests and reduced free PCR tests have recently led to data gaps for the surveillance of evolving SARS-CoV-2 variants. To overcome such limitations, we asked whether wastewater surveillance could be leveraged to detect rare variants circulating in a community before local detection in human cases. Here, we performed whole genome sequencing (WGS) of SARS-CoV-2 from a wastewater treatment plant serving Las Vegas, Nevada in April 2022. Using metrics that exceeded 100× depth at a coverage of >90 % of the viral genome, we identified a variant profile similar to the XL recombinant lineage containing 26 mutations found in BA.1 and BA.2 and three private mutations. Prompted by the discovery of this rare lineage in wastewater, we analyzed clinical COVID-19 sequencing data from Southern Nevada and identified two cases infected with the XL lineage. Taken together, our data highlight how wastewater genome sequencing data can be used to discover rare SARS-CoV-2 lineages in a community and complement local public health surveillance.

Use of wastewater surveillance for early detection of Alpha and Epsilon SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and estimation of overall COVID-19 infection burden

A decline in diagnostic testing for SARS-CoV-2 is expected to delay the tracking of COVID-19 variants of concern and interest in the United States. We hypothesize that wastewater surveillance programs provide an effective alternative for detecting emerging variants and assessing COVID-19 incidence, particularly when clinical surveillance is limited. Here, we analyzed SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater from eight locations across Southern Nevada between March 2020 and April 2021. Trends in SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations (ranging from 4.3 log₁₀ gc/L to 8.7 log₁₀ gc/L) matched trends in confirmed COVID-19 incidence, but wastewater surveillance also highlighted several limitations with the clinical data. Amplicon-based whole genome sequencing (WGS) of 86 wastewater samples identified the B.1.1.7 (Alpha) and B.1.429 (Epsilon) lineages in December 2020, but clinical sequencing failed to identify the variants until January 2021, thereby demonstrating that 'pooled' wastewater samples can sometimes expedite variant detection. Also, by calibrating fecal shedding (11.4 log₁₀ gc/infection) and wastewater surveillance data to reported seroprevalence, we estimate that ~38% of individuals in Southern Nevada had been infected by SARS-CoV-2 as of April 2021, which is significantly higher than the 10% of individuals confirmed through clinical testing. Sewershed-specific ascertainment ratios (i.e., X-fold infection undercounts) ranged from 1.0 to 7.7, potentially due to demographic differences. Our data underscore the growing application of wastewater surveillance in not only the identification and quantification of infectious agents, but also the detection of variants of concern that may be missed when diagnostic testing is limited or unavailable.

Rapid Diagnostic Testing for Response to the Monkeypox Outbreak - Laboratory Response Network, United States, May 17-June 30, 2022

As part of public health preparedness for infectious disease threats, CDC collaborates with other U.S. public health officials to ensure that the Laboratory Response Network (LRN) has diagnostic tools to detect Orthopoxviruses, the genus that includes Variola virus, the causative agent of smallpox. LRN is a network of state and local public health, federal, U.S. Department of Defense (DOD), veterinary, food, and environmental testing laboratories. CDC developed, and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) granted 510(k) clearance* for the Non-variola Orthopoxvirus Real-time PCR Primer and Probe Set (non-variola Orthopoxvirus [NVO] assay), a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) diagnostic test to detect NVO. On May 17, 2022, CDC was contacted by the Massachusetts Department of Public Health (DPH) regarding a suspected case of monkeypox, a disease caused by the Orthopoxvirus Monkeypox virus. Specimens were collected and tested by the Massachusetts DPH public health laboratory with LRN testing capability using the NVO assay. Nationwide, 68 LRN laboratories had capacity to test approximately 8,000 NVO tests per week during June. During May 17-June 30, LRN laboratories tested 2,009 specimens from suspected monkeypox cases. Among those, 730 (36.3%) specimens from 395 patients were positive for NVO. NVO-positive specimens from 159 persons were confirmed by CDC to be monkeypox; final characterization is pending for 236. Prompt identification of persons with infection allowed rapid response to the outbreak, including isolation and treatment of patients, administration of vaccines, and other public health action. To further facilitate access to testing and increase convenience for providers and patients by using existing provider-laboratory relationships, CDC and LRN are supporting five large commercial laboratories with a national footprint (Aegis Science, LabCorp, Mayo Clinic Laboratories, Quest Diagnostics, and Sonic Healthcare) to establish NVO testing capacity of 10,000 specimens per week per laboratory. On July 6, 2022, the first commercial laboratory began accepting specimens for NVO testing based on clinician orders.

Genomic surveillance of Nevada patients revealed prevalence of unique SARS-CoV-2 variants bearing mutations in the RdRp gene

Patients with signs of COVID-19 were tested through diagnostic RT-PCR for SARS-CoV-2 using RNA extracted from the nasopharyngeal/nasal swabs. To determine the variants of SARS-CoV-2 circulating in the state of Nevada, specimens from 200 COVID-19 patients were sequenced through our robust sequencing platform, which enabled sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 from specimens with even very low viral loads, without the need of culture-based amplification. High genome coverage allowed the identification of single and multi-nucleotide variants in SARS-CoV-2 in the community and their phylogenetic relationships with other variants present during the same period of the outbreak. We report the occurrence of a novel mutation at 323aa (314aa of orf1b) of nsp12 (RNA-dependent RNA polymerase) changed to phenylalanine (F) from proline (P), in the first reported isolate of SARS-CoV-2, Wuhan-Hu-1. This 323F variant was present at a very high frequency in Northern Nevada. Structural modeling determined this mutation in the interface domain, which is important for the association of accessory proteins required for the polymerase. In conclusion, we report the introduction of specific SARS-CoV-2 variants at very high frequency in distinct geographic locations, which is important for understanding the evolution and circulation of SARS-CoV-2 variants of public health importance, while it circulates in humans.

Genomic surveillance revealed prevalence of unique SARS-CoV- 2 variants bearing mutation in the RdRp gene among Nevada patients.. [PMID: 32869037 PMCID: PMC7457609 DOI: 10.1101/2020.08.21.20178863]

Patients with signs of COVID-19 were tested with CDC approved diagnostic RT-PCR for SARS-CoV-2 using RNA extracted from nasopharyngeal/nasal swabs. In order to determine the variants of SARS-CoV-2 circulating in the state of Nevada, 200 patient specimens from COVID-19 patients were sequenced through our robust protocol for sequencing SARS-CoV-2 genomes. Our protocol enabled sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 genome directly from the specimens, with even very low viral loads, without the need of culture-based amplification. This allowed the identification of specific nucleotide variants including those coding for D614G and clades defining mutations. These sequences were further analyzed for determining SARS-CoV-2 variants circulating in the state of Nevada and their phylogenetic relationships with other variants present in the united states and the world during the same period of the outbreak. Our study reports the occurrence of a novel variant in the nsp12 (RNA dependent RNA Polymerase) protein at residue 323 (314aa of orf1b) to Phenylalanine (F) from Proline (P), present in the original isolate of SARS-CoV-2 (Wuhan-Hu-1). This 323F variant is found at a very high frequency (46% of the tested specimen) in Northern Nevada. Functional significance of this unique and highly prevalent variant of SARS-CoV-2 with RdRp mutation is currently under investigation but structural modeling showed this 323aa residue in the interface domain of RdRp, which is required for association with accessory proteins. In conclusion, we report the introduction of specific SARS-CoV-2 variants at a very high frequency within a distinct geographic location, which is important for clinical and public health perspectives in understanding the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 while in circulation.