Climate-ecosystem modelling made easy: The Land Sites Platform

Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) provide a state-of-the-art process-based approach to study the complex interplay between vegetation and its physical environment. For example, they help to predict how terrestrial plants interact with climate, soils, disturbance and competition for resources. We argue that there is untapped potential for the use of DGVMs in ecological and ecophysiological research. One fundamental barrier to realize this potential is that many researchers with relevant expertize (ecology, plant physiology, soil science, etc.) lack access to the technical resources or awareness of the research potential of DGVMs. Here we present the Land Sites Platform (LSP): new software that facilitates single-site simulations with the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator, an advanced DGVM coupled with the Community Land Model. The LSP includes a Graphical User Interface and an Application Programming Interface, which improve the user experience and lower the technical thresholds for installing these model architectures and setting up model experiments. The software is distributed via version-controlled containers; researchers and students can run simulations directly on their personal computers or servers, with relatively low hardware requirements, and on different operating systems. Version 1.0 of the LSP supports site-level simulations. We provide input data for 20 established geo-ecological observation sites in Norway and workflows to add generic sites from public global datasets. The LSP makes standard model experiments with default data easily achievable (e.g., for educational or introductory purposes) while retaining flexibility for more advanced scientific uses. We further provide tools to visualize the model input and output, including simple examples to relate predictions to local observations. The LSP improves access to land surface and DGVM modelling as a building block of community cyberinfrastructure that may inspire new avenues for mechanistic ecosystem research across disciplines.

Carbon uptake in Eurasian boreal forests dominates the high-latitude net ecosystem carbon budget

Arctic-boreal landscapes are experiencing profound warming, along with changes in ecosystem moisture status and disturbance from fire. This region is of global importance in terms of carbon feedbacks to climate, yet the sign (sink or source) and magnitude of the Arctic-boreal carbon budget within recent years remains highly uncertain. Here, we provide new estimates of recent (2003-2015) vegetation gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (R_eco ), net ecosystem CO₂ exchange (NEE; R_eco  - GPP), and terrestrial methane (CH₄ ) emissions for the Arctic-boreal zone using a satellite data-driven process-model for northern ecosystems (TCFM-Arctic), calibrated and evaluated using measurements from >60 tower eddy covariance (EC) sites. We used TCFM-Arctic to obtain daily 1-km² flux estimates and annual carbon budgets for the pan-Arctic-boreal region. Across the domain, the model indicated an overall average NEE sink of -850 Tg CO₂ -C year^-1 . Eurasian boreal zones, especially those in Siberia, contributed to a majority of the net sink. In contrast, the tundra biome was relatively carbon neutral (ranging from small sink to source). Regional CH₄ emissions from tundra and boreal wetlands (not accounting for aquatic CH₄ ) were estimated at 35 Tg CH₄ -C year^-1 . Accounting for additional emissions from open water aquatic bodies and from fire, using available estimates from the literature, reduced the total regional NEE sink by 21% and shifted many far northern tundra landscapes, and some boreal forests, to a net carbon source. This assessment, based on in situ observations and models, improves our understanding of the high-latitude carbon status and also indicates a continued need for integrated site-to-regional assessments to monitor the vulnerability of these ecosystems to climate change.

Vegetation type is an important predictor of the arctic summer land surface energy budget

Despite the importance of high-latitude surface energy budgets (SEBs) for land-climate interactions in the rapidly changing Arctic, uncertainties in their prediction persist. Here, we harmonize SEB observations across a network of vegetated and glaciated sites at circumpolar scale (1994-2021). Our variance-partitioning analysis identifies vegetation type as an important predictor for SEB-components during Arctic summer (June-August), compared to other SEB-drivers including climate, latitude and permafrost characteristics. Differences among vegetation types can be of similar magnitude as between vegetation and glacier surfaces and are especially high for summer sensible and latent heat fluxes. The timing of SEB-flux summer-regimes (when daily mean values exceed 0 Wm^-2) relative to snow-free and -onset dates varies substantially depending on vegetation type, implying vegetation controls on snow-cover and SEB-flux seasonality. Our results indicate complex shifts in surface energy fluxes with land-cover transitions and a lengthening summer season, and highlight the potential for improving future Earth system models via a refined representation of Arctic vegetation types.

Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain: Regional patterns and uncertainties

The regional variability in tundra and boreal carbon dioxide (CO₂ ) fluxes can be high, complicating efforts to quantify sink-source patterns across the entire region. Statistical models are increasingly used to predict (i.e., upscale) CO₂ fluxes across large spatial domains, but the reliability of different modeling techniques, each with different specifications and assumptions, has not been assessed in detail. Here, we compile eddy covariance and chamber measurements of annual and growing season CO₂ fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) during 1990-2015 from 148 terrestrial high-latitude (i.e., tundra and boreal) sites to analyze the spatial patterns and drivers of CO₂ fluxes and test the accuracy and uncertainty of different statistical models. CO₂ fluxes were upscaled at relatively high spatial resolution (1 km² ) across the high-latitude region using five commonly used statistical models and their ensemble, that is, the median of all five models, using climatic, vegetation, and soil predictors. We found the performance of machine learning and ensemble predictions to outperform traditional regression methods. We also found the predictive performance of NEE-focused models to be low, relative to models predicting GPP and ER. Our data compilation and ensemble predictions showed that CO₂ sink strength was larger in the boreal biome (observed and predicted average annual NEE -46 and -29 g C m^-2  yr^-1 , respectively) compared to tundra (average annual NEE +10 and -2 g C m^-2  yr^-1 ). This pattern was associated with large spatial variability, reflecting local heterogeneity in soil organic carbon stocks, climate, and vegetation productivity. The terrestrial ecosystem CO₂ budget, estimated using the annual NEE ensemble prediction, suggests the high-latitude region was on average an annual CO₂ sink during 1990-2015, although uncertainty remains high.

Large loss of CO2 in winter observed across the northern permafrost region

Recent warming in the Arctic, which has been amplified during the winter^1-3, greatly enhances microbial decomposition of soil organic matter and subsequent release of carbon dioxide (CO₂)⁴. However, the amount of CO₂ released in winter is highly uncertain and has not been well represented by ecosystem models or by empirically-based estimates^5,6. Here we synthesize regional in situ observations of CO₂ flux from arctic and boreal soils to assess current and future winter carbon losses from the northern permafrost domain. We estimate a contemporary loss of 1662 Tg C yr^-1 from the permafrost region during the winter season (October through April). This loss is greater than the average growing season carbon uptake for this region estimated from process models (-1032 Tg C yr^-1). Extending model predictions to warmer conditions in 2100 indicates that winter CO₂ emissions will increase 17% under a moderate mitigation scenario-Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5-and 41% under business-as-usual emissions scenario-RCP 8.5. Our results provide a new baseline for winter CO₂ emissions from northern terrestrial regions and indicate that enhanced soil CO₂ loss due to winter warming may offset growing season carbon uptake under future climatic conditions.

Toward a statistical description of methane emissions from arctic wetlands

Methane (CH₄) emissions from arctic tundra typically follow relations with soil temperature and water table depth, but these process-based descriptions can be difficult to apply to areas where no measurements exist. We formulated a description of the broader temporal flux pattern in the growing season based on two distinct CH₄ source components from slow and fast-turnover carbon. We used automatic closed chamber flux measurements from NE Greenland (74°N), W Greenland (64°N), and Svalbard (78°N) to identify and discuss these components. The temporal separation was well-suited in NE Greenland, where the hypothesized slow-turnover carbon peaked at a time significantly related to the timing of snowmelt. The temporally wider component from fast-turnover carbon dominated the emissions in W Greenland and Svalbard. Altogether, we found no dependence of the total seasonal CH₄ budget to the timing of snowmelt, and warmer sites and years tended to yield higher CH₄ emissions.

A synthesis of the arctic terrestrial and marine carbon cycles under pressure from a dwindling cryosphere

The current downturn of the arctic cryosphere, such as the strong loss of sea ice, melting of ice sheets and glaciers, and permafrost thaw, affects the marine and terrestrial carbon cycles in numerous interconnected ways. Nonetheless, processes in the ocean and on land have been too often considered in isolation while it has become increasingly clear that the two environments are strongly connected: Sea ice decline is one of the main causes of the rapid warming of the Arctic, and the flow of carbon from rivers into the Arctic Ocean affects marine processes and the air-sea exchange of CO₂. This review, therefore, provides an overview of the current state of knowledge of the arctic terrestrial and marine carbon cycle, connections in between, and how this complex system is affected by climate change and a declining cryosphere. Ultimately, better knowledge of biogeochemical processes combined with improved model representations of ocean-land interactions are essential to accurately predict the development of arctic ecosystems and associated climate feedbacks.

Rising methane emissions from northern wetlands associated with sea ice decline

The Arctic is rapidly transitioning toward a seasonal sea ice-free state, perhaps one of the most apparent examples of climate change in the world. This dramatic change has numerous consequences, including a large increase in air temperatures, which in turn may affect terrestrial methane emissions. Nonetheless, terrestrial and marine environments are seldom jointly analyzed. By comparing satellite observations of Arctic sea ice concentrations to methane emissions simulated by three process-based biogeochemical models, this study shows that rising wetland methane emissions are associated with sea ice retreat. Our analyses indicate that simulated high-latitude emissions for 2005-2010 were, on average, 1.7 Tg CH₄ yr^-1 higher compared to 1981-1990 due to a sea ice-induced, autumn-focused, warming. Since these results suggest a continued rise in methane emissions with future sea ice decline, observation programs need to include measurements during the autumn to further investigate the impact of this spatial connection on terrestrial methane emissions.

Tundra in the rain: differential vegetation responses to three years of experimentally doubled summer precipitation in Siberian shrub and Swedish bog tundra

Precipitation amounts and patterns at high latitude sites have been predicted to change as a result of global climatic changes. We addressed vegetation responses to three years of experimentally increased summer precipitation in two previously unaddressed tundra types: Betula nana-dominated shrub tundra (northeast Siberia) and a dry Sphagnum fuscum-dominated bog (northern Sweden). Positive responses to approximately doubled ambient precipitation (an increase of 200 mm year(-1)) were observed at the Siberian site, for B. nana (30 % larger length increments), Salix pulchra (leaf size and length increments) and Arctagrostis latifolia (leaf size and specific leaf area), but none were observed at the Swedish site. Total biomass production did not increase at either of the study sites. This study corroborates studies in other tundra vegetation types and shows that despite regional differences at the plant level, total tundra plant productivity is, at least at the short or medium term, largely irresponsive to experimentally increased summer precipitation.