Describing Natural History and Exploring Risk Factors for Kidney Function Decline in Persons With CKD of Uncertain Etiology in Sri Lanka

Introduction

Chronic kidney disease of uncertain etiology (CKDu) is a leading cause of death of adults in Sri Lanka's dry region.

Methods

We initiated the Kidney Progression Project (KiPP) to prospectively follow 292 persons with Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) 20 to 60 ml/min per 1.73 m² living in a CKDu endemic area. Using data from 3-year follow-up, we assessed kidney function decline (>30% from baseline eGFR), and the composite outcome of >30% eGFR decline, eGFR <15 ml/min or death, and explored the association of the 2 outcomes with baseline demographic, residential, and clinical parameters accounting for baseline eGFR.

Results

Median eGFR at enrollment was 28 ml/min among 71 women; 30 ml/min among 221 men; 91% to 99% had trace or no proteinuria during follow-up. At enrollment, median serum sodium, uric acid, and potassium were 143 mmol/l, 6.3 mg/dl, 4.5 meq/l, respectively among women; and 143 mmol/l, 6.9 mg/dl, 4.3 meq/l among men. Mean slope of eGFR decline was -0.5 (SD 4.9) ml/min/yr. In exploratory analyses, men with greater years of education and those living in northern region of the study area experienced lower likelihood of disease progression (hazard ratios [HR] 0.87 [0.77-0.98] per additional year and 0.33 [0.12-0.89] for northern versus other subregions, respectively). There was a suggestion that men drinking well water had higher likelihood and men living further away from reservoirs had lower likelihood of >30% decline in eGFR (HR 2.07 [0.95-4.49] for drinking well water versus not, and HR 0.58 [0.32-1.05] per kilometer distance, respectively).

Conclusions

The overall rate of kidney function decline was slow in this CKDu cohort, similar to other nonalbuminuric CKD, and event rates were similar among men and women. Further etiologic investigations could focus on specific residence locale and water use.

Pilot Study of Renal Urinary Biomarkers for Diagnosis of CKD of Uncertain Etiology

Introduction

Chronic kidney disease of uncertain etiology (CKDu), an emerging chronic kidney disease (CKD) subtype, contributes to significant morbidity and mortality in certain tropical countries. Although several indicators of CKDu have been previously suggested, sensitive and specific tests to detect early disease or predict disease progression are currently unavailable. This study focused on evaluating 8 renal urinary markers, namely neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL), Kidney Injury Molecule-1 (KIM1), cystatin C (CST3), beta 2 microglobulin (B2M), osteopontin (OPN), alpha 1 microglobulin (A1M), tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase 1 (TIMP1), and retinol binding protein 4 (RBP4), with the hypothesis that these have distinct expression patterns in patients with CKDu.

Methods

A cross-sectional study was conducted with 5 study groups comprising subjects from CKDu, endemic CKD, nonendemic CKD, and endemic healthy and nonendemic healthy controls. The urinary levels of the 8 selected renal biomarkers were quantified using multiplex biomarker assay, and the data were subjected to systematic analysis using logistic regression algorithm aiming to extract the best marker combination that could distinctly identify the disease groups noninvasively from the healthy controls.

Results

A 3-marker signature panel comprising A1M, KIM1, and RBP4 was identified to represent the best minimum marker combination for differentiating all CKD categories, including CKDu, from healthy controls with an overall sensitivity of ≥0.867 and specificity ≥0.765. The marker combination comprising OPN, KIM1, and RBP4 showed high predictive performance for distinguishing patients with CKDu from patients with CKD with both sensitivity and specificity ≥0.93, which was superior to any existing noninvasive indicator.

Conclusion

In all, our systematic evaluation of urinary markers previously linked to CKD, in general, allowed identification of exclusive marker panel combination for early diagnosis and confirmation of CKDu.