Lifetime and 10-year risks of cardiovascular mortality in relation to risk factors in middle and old age: 50-year follow-up of the Whitehall study of London Civil Servants

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular disease (CVD)-related mortality has declined substantially in the United Kingdom (UK) in recent decades, but the continued relevance of conventional risk factors for prediction of CVD mortality throughout the life-course is uncertain. We compared the 10-year risks and lifetime risks of CVD mortality associated with conventional risk factors recorded in middle and old age.

METHODS

The Whitehall study was a prospective study of 19,019 male London civil servants (mean age 52 years) when enrolled in 1967-1970 and followed-up for 50 years for cause-specific mortality. In 1997, 7044 (83%) survivors (mean age 77 years) were re-surveyed. The 10-year and lifetime risks of CVD mortality were estimated by levels of CVD risk factors recorded in middle-age and old-age, respectively.

RESULTS

By July 2020, 97% had died (22%, 51% and 80% before age 70, 80 and 90 years, respectively) and 7944 of 17,673 deaths (45%) were from CVD. The 10-year and lifetime risks of CVD death increased linearly with higher levels of CVD risk factors recorded in middle-age and in old-age. Individuals in the top versus bottom 5% of CVD risk scores in middle age had a 10.3% (95% CI:7.2-13.4) vs 0.6% (0.1-1.2) 10-year risk of CVD mortality, a 61.4% (59.4-65.3) vs 31.3% (24.1-34.5) lifetime risk of CVD mortality and a 12-year difference in life expectancy from age 50 years. The corresponding differences using a CVD risk score in old-age were 11.0% (4.4-17.5) vs 0.8% (0.0-2.2) for 10-year risk and 42.1% (28.2-50.0) vs 30.3% (6.0-38.0) for lifetime risk of CVD mortality and a 6-year difference in life expectancy from age 70 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Conventional risk factors remained highly predictive of CVD mortality and life expectancy through the life-course. The findings highlight the relevance of estimation of both lifetime risks of CVD and 10-year risks of CVD for primary prevention of CVD.

Effects of empagliflozin on progression of chronic kidney disease: a prespecified secondary analysis from the empa-kidney trial

BACKGROUND

Sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors reduce progression of chronic kidney disease and the risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in a wide range of patients. However, their effects on kidney disease progression in some patients with chronic kidney disease are unclear because few clinical kidney outcomes occurred among such patients in the completed trials. In particular, some guidelines stratify their level of recommendation about who should be treated with SGLT2 inhibitors based on diabetes status and albuminuria. We aimed to assess the effects of empagliflozin on progression of chronic kidney disease both overall and among specific types of participants in the EMPA-KIDNEY trial.

METHODS

EMPA-KIDNEY, a randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial, was conducted at 241 centres in eight countries (Canada, China, Germany, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, the UK, and the USA), and included individuals aged 18 years or older with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 20 to less than 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2, or with an eGFR of 45 to less than 90 mL/min per 1·73 m2 with a urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (uACR) of 200 mg/g or higher. We explored the effects of 10 mg oral empagliflozin once daily versus placebo on the annualised rate of change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR slope), a tertiary outcome. We studied the acute slope (from randomisation to 2 months) and chronic slope (from 2 months onwards) separately, using shared parameter models to estimate the latter. Analyses were done in all randomly assigned participants by intention to treat. EMPA-KIDNEY is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03594110.

FINDINGS

Between May 15, 2019, and April 16, 2021, 6609 participants were randomly assigned and then followed up for a median of 2·0 years (IQR 1·5-2·4). Prespecified subgroups of eGFR included 2282 (34·5%) participants with an eGFR of less than 30 mL/min per 1·73 m2, 2928 (44·3%) with an eGFR of 30 to less than 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2, and 1399 (21·2%) with an eGFR 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2 or higher. Prespecified subgroups of uACR included 1328 (20·1%) with a uACR of less than 30 mg/g, 1864 (28·2%) with a uACR of 30 to 300 mg/g, and 3417 (51·7%) with a uACR of more than 300 mg/g. Overall, allocation to empagliflozin caused an acute 2·12 mL/min per 1·73 m2 (95% CI 1·83-2·41) reduction in eGFR, equivalent to a 6% (5-6) dip in the first 2 months. After this, it halved the chronic slope from -2·75 to -1·37 mL/min per 1·73 m2 per year (relative difference 50%, 95% CI 42-58). The absolute and relative benefits of empagliflozin on the magnitude of the chronic slope varied significantly depending on diabetes status and baseline levels of eGFR and uACR. In particular, the absolute difference in chronic slopes was lower in patients with lower baseline uACR, but because this group progressed more slowly than those with higher uACR, this translated to a larger relative difference in chronic slopes in this group (86% [36-136] reduction in the chronic slope among those with baseline uACR <30 mg/g compared with a 29% [19-38] reduction for those with baseline uACR ≥2000 mg/g; ptrend<0·0001).

INTERPRETATION

Empagliflozin slowed the rate of progression of chronic kidney disease among all types of participant in the EMPA-KIDNEY trial, including those with little albuminuria. Albuminuria alone should not be used to determine whether to treat with an SGLT2 inhibitor.

FUNDING

Boehringer Ingelheim and Eli Lilly.

Impact of primary kidney disease on the effects of empagliflozin in patients with chronic kidney disease: secondary analyses of the EMPA-KIDNEY trial

BACKGROUND

The EMPA-KIDNEY trial showed that empagliflozin reduced the risk of the primary composite outcome of kidney disease progression or cardiovascular death in patients with chronic kidney disease mainly through slowing progression. We aimed to assess how effects of empagliflozin might differ by primary kidney disease across its broad population.

METHODS

EMPA-KIDNEY, a randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial, was conducted at 241 centres in eight countries (Canada, China, Germany, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, the UK, and the USA). Patients were eligible if their estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was 20 to less than 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2, or 45 to less than 90 mL/min per 1·73 m2 with a urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (uACR) of 200 mg/g or higher at screening. They were randomly assigned (1:1) to 10 mg oral empagliflozin once daily or matching placebo. Effects on kidney disease progression (defined as a sustained ≥40% eGFR decline from randomisation, end-stage kidney disease, a sustained eGFR below 10 mL/min per 1·73 m2, or death from kidney failure) were assessed using prespecified Cox models, and eGFR slope analyses used shared parameter models. Subgroup comparisons were performed by including relevant interaction terms in models. EMPA-KIDNEY is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03594110.

FINDINGS

Between May 15, 2019, and April 16, 2021, 6609 participants were randomly assigned and followed up for a median of 2·0 years (IQR 1·5-2·4). Prespecified subgroupings by primary kidney disease included 2057 (31·1%) participants with diabetic kidney disease, 1669 (25·3%) with glomerular disease, 1445 (21·9%) with hypertensive or renovascular disease, and 1438 (21·8%) with other or unknown causes. Kidney disease progression occurred in 384 (11·6%) of 3304 patients in the empagliflozin group and 504 (15·2%) of 3305 patients in the placebo group (hazard ratio 0·71 [95% CI 0·62-0·81]), with no evidence that the relative effect size varied significantly by primary kidney disease (pheterogeneity=0·62). The between-group difference in chronic eGFR slopes (ie, from 2 months to final follow-up) was 1·37 mL/min per 1·73 m2 per year (95% CI 1·16-1·59), representing a 50% (42-58) reduction in the rate of chronic eGFR decline. This relative effect of empagliflozin on chronic eGFR slope was similar in analyses by different primary kidney diseases, including in explorations by type of glomerular disease and diabetes (p values for heterogeneity all >0·1).

INTERPRETATION

In a broad range of patients with chronic kidney disease at risk of progression, including a wide range of non-diabetic causes of chronic kidney disease, empagliflozin reduced risk of kidney disease progression. Relative effect sizes were broadly similar irrespective of the cause of primary kidney disease, suggesting that SGLT2 inhibitors should be part of a standard of care to minimise risk of kidney failure in chronic kidney disease.

FUNDING

Boehringer Ingelheim, Eli Lilly, and UK Medical Research Council.

Cohort profile: the ESC EURObservational Research Programme Non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infraction (NSTEMI) Registry

AIMS

The European Society of Cardiology (ESC) EURObservational Research Programme (EORP) Non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) Registry aims to identify international patterns in NSTEMI management in clinical practice and outcomes against the 2015 ESC Guidelines for the management of acute coronary syndromes in patients presenting without ST-segment-elevation.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Consecutively hospitalised adult NSTEMI patients (n = 3620) were enrolled between 11 March 2019 and 6 March 2021, and individual patient data prospectively collected at 287 centres in 59 participating countries during a two-week enrolment period per centre. The registry collected data relating to baseline characteristics, major outcomes (in-hospital death, acute heart failure, cardiogenic shock, bleeding, stroke/transient ischaemic attack, and 30-day mortality) and guideline-recommended NSTEMI care interventions: electrocardiogram pre- or in-hospital, pre-hospitalization receipt of aspirin, echocardiography, coronary angiography, referral to cardiac rehabilitation, smoking cessation advice, dietary advice, and prescription on discharge of aspirin, P2Y12 inhibition, angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEi)/angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB), beta-blocker, and statin.

CONCLUSION

The EORP NSTEMI Registry is an international, prospective registry of care and outcomes of patients treated for NSTEMI, which will provide unique insights into the contemporary management of hospitalised NSTEMI patients, compliance with ESC 2015 NSTEMI Guidelines, and identify potential barriers to optimal management of this common clinical presentation associated with significant morbidity and mortality.

Perioperative rosuvastatin therapy increases creatine kinase and the risk of acute kidney injury in patients undergoing cardiac surgery

Introduction

In patients undergoing cardiac surgery, perioperative statin therapy does not prevent atrial fibrillation or myocardial injury, but results in increased creatinine levels after surgery. Here we investigated the incidence of acute kidney injury (AKI) in 1922 patients scheduled for elective cardiac surgery who were randomized to perioperative rosuvastatin (20 mg once daily) or placebo in the Statin Therapy In Cardiac Surgery (STICS) trial.

Methods

AKI post-surgery was defined according to international guidelines using plasma creatinine. Biomarkers related to kidney function, muscle injury and inflammation were investigated, including cystatin C, total creatine kinase (CK), troponin I, growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15), interleukin-6 (IL-6), procalcitonin, and placental growth factor (PGF).

Results

At 48 hours post-surgery, AKI was significantly more common in patients allocated to rosuvastatin compared to placebo when defined by creatinine (24.7% vs 19.3%; OR 1.37 [95% CI 1.10–1.70]; p=0.005; Figure 1A) or by cystatin C (9.2% vs 5.1%; OR 1.86 [95% CI 1.29–2.67]; p&lt;0.001; Figure 1B). Elevations in CK to &gt;10x and &gt;40x baseline level were also more frequent in rosuvastatin-allocated patients compared to placebo (30.9% vs 26.5%, p=0.02, and 2.1% vs 0.7%, p=0.02, respectively; Figure 1C). Post-operative concentrations of troponin I, GDF-15, IL-6, procalcitonin, and PGF were similar between the groups (Table 1).

Conclusions

Perioperative rosuvastatin initiation increased the absolute risk of AKI after cardiac surgery by 4–5%. Rosuvastatin also led to greater elevations in post-operative creatine kinase, but did not affect other biomarkers of tissue injury, inflammation, and myocardial injury. Further research is needed to delineate the underlying mechanism of AKI with perioperative rosuvastatin.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Foundation. Main funding source(s): British Heart Foundation

Impact of cardiovascular events on primary and hospital care costs: findings from UK Biobank study

Background

Need for primary and secondary healthcare increases following cardiovascular disease (CVD) events but there is no data on comparative increases in costs.

Purpose

To estimate annual primary care and hospital inpatient costs associated with key CVD and other adverse events using the UK Biobank (UKB) individual participant data.

Methods

UKB participants with linked primary care data (192,983 participants) or hospital inpatient episodes data (all 501,807 participants) contributed data to this study. The three categories of primary care services (patient consultations, diagnostic and monitoring tests, prescription medications), and hospital episodes were costed (2020 UK£) using the NHS England reference costs. Annual primary care costs and, separately, annual hospital inpatient costs were modelled as functions of participant characteristics at entry (socio-demographic, clinical, prior diseases) and time-updated first occurrences of myocardial infarction, stroke, coronary revascularization, incident cancer, incident diabetes, vascular death and non-vascular death during follow-up (p-value &lt;0.01 in stepwise covariate selection). One-part generalized linear regression model (GLM) with Poisson distribution and identity link function was used for primary care costs, and two-part model was used for inpatient costs (part 1: logistic regression models probability of incurring costs; part 2: GLM with Poisson distribution and identity link function models costs conditional on incurring any). Separate models were fitted among participants with and without previous CVD at entry into UKB.

Results

Most adverse events were associated with excess primary care and hospital inpatient costs. Compared to people without previous CVD, people with previous CVD had on average larger excess primary care and hospital inpatient costs in years with myocardial infarction, stroke and vascular death; but similar excess costs in years with other events. Among both people without and with previous CVD, the excess annual primary care costs were less than 7% of the excess annual hospital inpatient costs for vascular events (Table). However, following diabetes diagnosis the excess annual primary care costs were higher than the excess annual hospital inpatient costs (Table).

Conclusions

These excess primary and hospital care costs associated with CVD events could inform assessments of interventions and policies to reduce CVD risks in UK.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): UK National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment (HTA) Programme, UK Medical Research Council (MRC), British Heart Foundation

Cost-effectiveness of statin therapy in categories of patients in the UK

Background

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality has declined steadily over the last few decades across Europe and North America.

Purpose

To provide contemporary estimates of long-term effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of statin therapy in different categories of patients in UK.

Methods

The CTT-UKB micro-simulation model, developed using the Cholesterol Treatment Trialists' Collaboration data (CTT: 118,000 participants; 5 years follow-up), and calibrated in the UK Biobank cohort (UKB: 502,000 participants; 9 years follow-up). The model integrates parametric risk equations for incident myocardial infarction, stroke, coronary revascularization, diabetes, cancer and vascular and nonvascular death, and projects annually these endpoints and survival using patient characteristics at entry. UKB data and linked primary and hospital care data informed healthcare costs in the model (2020 UK£); 2021 UK NHS Drug Tariff informed statin costs (atorvastatin 40mg at £1.22 and 80mg at £1.68 per 28 tablets); and Health Survey for England data informed health-related quality of life in the model. Previous CTT meta-analysis, atorvastatin dose-response randomized trials, and further meta-analyses of statin trials and cohort studies informed effects of 40mg/80mg atorvastatin therapy daily on rates of incident myocardial infarction, stroke, coronary revascularization, vascular death, diabetes, myopathy and rhabdomyolysis.

The model was used to project gains in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and additional cost per QALY with lifetime use of atorvastatin 40mg or 80mg daily in categories of UKB participants by sex, age at statin initiation (40–49; 50–59 and 60–70 years), and 10-year CVD risk (QRISK3 risk (%): &lt;5; 5–10, 10–15, 15–20, ≥20). Further scenarios explored effects of 5-year delay of statin initiation in people under 45 years of age or stopping statin therapy at 80 years of age.

Results

Across men and women in categories by age and CVD risk, lifetime use of atorvastatin 40mg daily was associated with increases in survival by 0.44–1.69 years (0.28–1.02 QALYs), and atorvastatin 80mg daily with increases in survival of 0.45–1.87 years (0.32–1.13 QALYs; Figure 1) with gains larger among participants at higher CVD risk. Both atorvastatin 40mg and 80mg doses were in the range of cost-effective treatments with incremental cost per QALY gained with atorvastatin 40mg daily versus no statin therapy below £7200/QALY and with atorvastatin 80mg vs 40mg daily below £16000/QALY (Figure 2) across all patient categories studied. Compared to lifetime statin therapy, stopping therapy at 80 years of age substantially reduced benefits and was not cost-effective in any patient category studied. Similarly, compared to immediate initiation, 5-year delay of statin therapy in 40–45 years old patients was not a cost-effective.

Conclusions

In the UK, statin therapy remains highly cost-effective across men and women 40–70 years old, including those at 10-year CVD risk &lt;5%.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): UK National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment (HTA) Programme, UK National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment (HTA) Programme, UK Medical Research Council (MRC), British Heart Foundation

Benefit accrual with cardiovascular disease prevention and effects of discontinuation: a modelling study

Background

Statin therapy reduces rates of heart attacks and strokes and improves survival in people at increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. However, there is some uncertainty when to start and how long to persist with statin therapy so as to optimise benefits.

Purpose

To project the accrual of benefit with statin therapy in population groups by age at therapy initiation using a newly developed micro-simulation model.

Methods

Participants without previous CVD (N=44,412) and with previous CVD (N=13,061) at entry were randomly selected from the UK Biobank cohort, ensuring sufficient representation in respective categories by age, LDL cholesterol, diabetes and 10-year CVD risk categories (QRISK3 score, for those without previous CVD only). The CTT-UKB model, a CVD micro-simulation model [1], was used to predict subsequent survival and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) of the participants using their characteristics at entry. Treatment with atorvastatin 40mg daily was used as an example to illustrate the effect of the therapy compared to no such therapy. Scenarios include: (1) lifelong preventive therapy, (2) preventive therapy stopped at 80 years of age, and (3) delayed initiation of preventive therapy by 5 years in participants under 45 years of age.

Results

Statin treatment benefits, measured in QALYs gained, accrue over lifetime. The majority of benefits accrue later in life. Men accumulate larger benefits and earlier than women (Figure 1A). The pattern of benefits accrual is similar for participants with and without previous CVD (data not shown). The higher the participants' CVD risk, the larger and earlier the benefits, with younger participants accruing larger benefits (Figure 1B). Compared with lifelong prevention, stopping treatment at 80 years of age leads to large reductions in overall benefits, especially in women and those at lower CVD risk. For example, compared to lifelong therapy, people without previous CVD who initiate therapy in their 50s, would lose 47% of QALYs benefit (if men), 66% (if women), 73% (if with CVD risk &lt;5%), and 35% (if with CVD risk ≥20%), respectively, if they stop treatment when they reach 80 years of age. Five-year delay of statin therapy initiation in people under 45 years of age reduces their benefits by about 4% on average, though the loss is somewhat larger in people at higher CVD risk (Figure 2).

Conclusion

Benefits from lifelong cardiovascular prevention accrue over peoples' lifespan with large share of benefits accruing at older age. Stopping treatment earlier substantially reduces benefits.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): UK NationalInstitute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment (HTA) Programme, UK Medical Research Council (MRC), and British Heart Foundation

Determinants of post-operative atrial fibrillation in 1613 patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting in the Statin Therapy In Cardiac Surgery (STICS) trial

Introduction

Post-operative atrial fibrillation (POAF) occurs in 20–40% of patients in the first week after cardiac surgery, and is associated with longer hospital stay, higher stroke risk, and worse overall prognosis. The surgery-related inflammatory response has been strongly implicated in POAF pathogenesis; however, lower CRP levels resulting from perioperative rosuvastatin therapy in the Statin Therapy In Cardiac Surgery (STICS) randomized trial were not associated with a reduced incidence of POAF. Furthermore, POAF independently predicts subsequent clinical AF and as such may reflect the presence of a subclinical cardiomyopathic substrate. We tested this hypothesis by investigating determinants of POAF in 1613 patients who underwent isolated coronary artery bypass grafting in China in the STICS trial.

Methods

Clinical data included age, sex, body mass index, medical history, medications, and type of surgery (on-pump vs off-pump). Blood taken prior to surgery was assayed for troponin I, N-terminal pro–brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), creatinine, low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, and serum CD40 ligand. The biomarkers growth differentiation factor 15, interleukin-6, procalcitonin, and placental growth factor were measured at baseline and at 6 hours after surgery. Echocardiography evaluated left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and left atrial (LA) size. POAF was detected by continuous Holter electrocardiographic monitoring for 5 days after surgery.

Results

POAF occurred in 314 of 1613 patients (19%). As expected, age was the single strongest predictor of POAF (C-statistic 0.66 [95% CI 0.62–0.70]). After adjustment for age, NT-proBNP, LA size, Troponin, LVEF, sex, calcium-channel blocker use, and prior myocardial infarction were all significantly associated with POAF when assessed individually (all P&lt;0.05). In multivariate analysis, a basic model incorporating only age, NT-proBNP, and LA size had a C-statistic of 0.69 (95% CI 0.66–0.73). This performance was not significantly different to that of models including all available variables, irrespective of whether baseline or post-surgery biomarker results were used (all C-statistics 0.71 [95% CI 0.68–0.75]; Table 1). The basic model numerically outperformed more complex risk prediction scores including CHARGE-AF (0.66, 95% CI 0.63–0.70; Figure 1), POAF score (0.64, 95% CI 0.61–0.68), CHA2DS2-VASc (0.60, 95% CI 0.57–0.63), and AF risk index (0.57, 95% CI 0.54–0.60).

Conclusions

A basic model requiring only age, NT-proBNP, and LA size has good predictive value for POAF in this population, comparing well to more complex risk prediction scores. More broadly, these results suggest that systemic inflammation and perioperative myocardial injury may be less relevant to the pathogenesis of POAF than the effects of aging and cardiac structural and functional changes.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Foundation. Main funding source(s): British Heart Foundation

A model of lifetime health outcomes in cardiovascular disease based on clinical trials and large cohorts

Background and purpose

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk of individuals depends on their socio-demographic characteristics, clinical risk factors, and treatments, and strongly influences their quality of life and survival. Individual-based long-term disease models, which aim to more accurately calculate the lifetime consequences, can help to target treatments, develop disease management programmes, and assess the value of new therapies. We present a new micro-simulation CVD model.

Methods

This micro-simulation model was developed using individual participant data from the Cholesterol Treatment Trialists' collaboration (CTT: 118,000 participants; 15 trials) and calibrated (with added socioeconomic deprivation, ethnicity, physical activity, mental illness, cancer and incident diabetes) in the UK Biobank cohort (UKB: 502,000 participants). Parametric survival models estimated risks of key endpoints (myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, coronary revascularisation (CRV), diabetes, cancer and vascular (VD) and nonvascular death (NVD) using participants' age, sex, ethnicity, physical activity, socioeconomic deprivation, smoking history, lipids, blood pressure, creatinine, previous cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, mental illness and cancer at entry and non-fatal incidents of the key endpoints during follow-up. The model integrates the risk equations and enables annual projection of endpoints and survival over individuals' lifetimes. The model was used to project remaining life expectancy across UK Biobank participants.

Results

Nonfatal cardiovascular events and age were the major determinants of CVD risk and, together with incident diabetes and cancer, of individuals' survival. The cumulative incidence of the key endpoints predicted by the CTT-UKB model corresponded well to their observed incidence in the UK Biobank cohort, overall (Figure 1) and in categories of participants by age, sex, prior CVD and CVD risk. Predicted remaining life expectancy across UK Biobank participants without history of CVD ranged between 22 and 43 years in men and between 24 and 46 years in women, depending on their age and CVD risk (Figure 2). Among UK Biobank participants with history of CVD, depending on their age, predicted remaining life expectancy ranged from 20 to 32 years in men and from 26 to 38 years in women.

Conclusion

This new lifetime CVD model accurately predicts morbidity and mortality in a large UK population cohort. It will be made available to provide individualised projections of expected lifetime health outcomes and benefits of treatments.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): UK National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment (HTA) Programme, UK Medical Research Council (MRC), British Heart Foundation Figure 1. Predicted (in black) versus observed (95% CI; in red) incidence of major clinical outcomes in the UK Biobank.Figure 2. Predicted remaining life expectancy of participants in UK Biobank cohort, by age and CVD risk or previous CVD at entry. QRISK, a 10-year CVD risk scoring algorithm for people without previous CVD, recommended for use in the UK National Health Service.

P3824Body composition and mortality from vascular or metabolic causes among 150,000 participants in the Mexico City Prospective Study

Background

Higher body-mass index is associated with increased mortality from vascular disease, renal disease and other metabolic causes. However, body mass reflects both fat and lean mass, which may have very different effects on risk. We investigated the individual and joint relevance of fat and lean mass to mortality from these causes, using data from the Mexico City Prospective Study.

Methods

Between 1998 and 2004, 150,000 adults from Mexico City were recruited into a prospective study and tracked for cause-specific mortality for 14 years. Fat and lean mass at recruitment were predicted using Mexican-specific anthropometric equations, validated in a subset of participants with additional bio-impedance measures. Cox regression was used to assess the relevance of fat and lean mass at recruitment to mortality from a vascular, renal, or other metabolic cause at ages 35–74 years. Analyses were adjusted for age at risk, sex, residential district, education, recreational physical activity, smoking and alcohol consumption. To avoid reverse causality, analyses excluded those with diabetes or other chronic diseases at recruitment, and deaths in the first 5 years of follow-up. Mortality rate ratios (RRs) relate to the differences per SD of the usual values of various factors or the differences between the top tenth and bottom fifth of the values.

Results

Among 112,923 participants aged 35–74 years, mean (SD) fat mass in men and women was 22.0 (6.4) kgs and 29.4 (7.8) kgs respectively, while mean (SD) lean mass was 54.9 (7.2) kgs and 39.2 (5.0) kgs respectively. In both men and women, equation-predicted fat and lean mass closely matched the bio-impedance values (all r>0.86). Both fat and lean mass were positively and approximately log-linearly associated with mortality from a vascular or metabolic cause. However, the association of lean mass with mortality was more than accounted for by the correlation of lean with fat mass. Hence, after adjustment for fat mass, lean mass was inversely associated with risk. For a given amount of fat mass, the RR for vascular/metabolic mortality comparing those in the top tenth versus bottom fifth of the predicted lean mass was 0.35 (95% CI 0.24–0.52). Conversely, for a given amount of lean mass, the RR comparing those in the top tenth versus bottom fifth of the predicted fat mass was 4.06 (3.06–5.39). The RRs associated with each SD higher fat mass (1.51, 1.40–1.63) or lean mass (0.79, 0.73–0.86) appeared to be little affected by age, sex, or levels of other confounders, and were broadly similar for the major vascular, renal, and other metabolic mortality. The height-adjusted RRs were 1.41 (1.30–1.53) for fat mass and 0.91 (0.82–1.00) for lean mass.

Conclusions

In this Mexican cohort, predicted fat and lean mass had opposing effects on vascular and other metabolic deaths, with no evidence of any thresholds throughout the ranges studied.

The ESC ACCA EAPCI EORP acute coronary syndrome ST-elevation myocardial infarction registry

Aims 

The Acute Cardiac Care Association (ACCA)–European Association of Percutaneous Coronary Intervention (EAPCI) Registry on ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) of the EurObservational programme (EORP) of the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) registry aimed to determine the current state of the use of reperfusion therapy in ESC member and ESC affiliated countries and the adherence to ESC STEMI guidelines in patients with STEMI.

Methods and results 

Between 1 January 2015 and 31 March 2018, a total of 11 462 patients admitted with an initial diagnosis of STEMI according to the 2012 ESC STEMI guidelines were enrolled. Individual patient data were collected across 196 centres and 29 countries. Among the centres, there were 136 percutaneous coronary intervention centres and 91 with cardiac surgery on-site. The majority of centres (129/196) were part of a STEMI network. The main objective of this study was to describe the demographic, clinical, and angiographic characteristics of patients with STEMI. Other objectives include to assess management patterns and in particular the current use of reperfusion therapies and to evaluate how recommendations of most recent STEMI European guidelines regarding reperfusion therapies and adjunctive pharmacological and non-pharmacological treatments are adopted in clinical practice and how their application can impact on patients’ outcomes. Patients will be followed for 1 year after admission.

Conclusion 

The ESC ACCA-EAPCI EORP ACS STEMI registry is an international registry of care and outcomes of patients hospitalized with STEMI. It will provide insights into the contemporary patient profile, management patterns, and 1-year outcome of patients with STEMI.

Effect on non-vascular outcomes of lowering LDL cholesterol in patients with chronic kidney disease: results from the Study of Heart and Renal Protection

Background

Reducing LDL cholesterol (LDL-C) with statin-based therapy reduces the risk of major atherosclerotic events among patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD), with no evidence of an excess risk of cancer or death from any non-vascular cause. However, non-randomized data have suggested that statin therapy may have effects (both adverse and beneficial) on particular non-vascular conditions that do not cause death.

Methods

The Study of Heart and Renal Protection (SHARP) randomized patients with CKD to simvastatin 20 mg plus ezetimibe 10 mg (simvastatin/ezetimibe) daily versus matching placebo. Participants were followed up at least 6 monthly and all post-randomization serious adverse events (SAEs) were recorded. This supplementary analysis reports the effects of treatment on non-vascular SAEs, overall, by system of disease, by baseline characteristics, and by duration of follow-up.

Results

During a median of 4.9 years follow-up, similar numbers of participants in the two groups experienced at least one non-vascular SAE (3551 [76.4%] simvastatin/ezetimibe vs 3537 [76.6%] placebo; risk ratio [RR] 0.99, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.95–1.04). There was no good evidence of any significant effect of simvastatin/ezetimibe on SAEs attributed to any particular nonvascular disease system (of 43 comparisons, only 3 yielded an uncorrected p value < 0.05, of which the smallest was p = 0.02). The relative risk of any nonvascular SAE did not vary significantly among particular prognostic subgroups or by duration of follow-up.

Conclusions

In the SHARP trial, allocation to simvastatin/ezetimibe combination therapy was not associated with any significant non-vascular hazard.

Trials registration

SHARP was retrospectively registered after the first participant was enrolled in 2003 at ISRCTN (ISRCTN54137607 on 31 January 2005: http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN54137607) and ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT00125593 on 29 July 2005: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00125593).

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12882-017-0545-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Optimum dose of vitamin D for disease prevention in older people: BEST-D trial of vitamin D in primary care

This trial compared the effects of daily treatment with vitamin D or placebo for 1 year on blood tests of vitamin D status. The results demonstrated that daily 4000 IU vitamin D3 is required to achieve blood levels associated with lowest disease risks, and this dose should be tested in future trials for fracture prevention.

INTRODUCTION

The aim of this trial was to assess the effects of daily supplementation with vitamin D3 4000 IU (100 μg), 2000 IU (50 μg) or placebo for 1 year on biochemical markers of vitamin D status in preparation for a large trial for prevention of fractures and other outcomes.

METHODS

This is a randomized placebo-controlled trial in 305 community-dwelling people aged 65 years or older in Oxfordshire, UK. Outcomes included biochemical markers of vitamin D status (plasma 25-hydroxy-vitamin D [25[OH]D], parathyroid hormone [PTH], calcium and alkaline phosphatase), cardiovascular risk factors and tests of physical function.

RESULTS

Mean (SD) plasma 25(OH)D levels were 50 (18) nmol/L at baseline and increased to 137 (39), 102 (25) and 53 (16) nmol/L after 12 months in those allocated 4000 IU, 2000 IU or placebo, respectively (with 88%, 70% and 1% of these groups achieving the pre-specified level of >90 nmol/L). Neither dose of vitamin D3 was associated with significant deviation outside the normal range of PTH or albumin-corrected calcium. The additional effect on 25(OH)D levels of 4000 versus 2000 IU was similar in all subgroups except for body mass index, for which the further increase was smaller in overweight and obese participants compared with normal-weight participants. Supplementation with vitamin D had no significant effects on cardiovascular risk factors or on measures of physical function.

CONCLUSIONS

After accounting for average 70% compliance in long-term trials, doses of 4000 IU vitamin D3 daily may be required to achieve plasma 25(OH)D levels associated with lowest disease risk in observational studies.

Protocol for analyses of adverse event data from randomized controlled trials of statin therapy

The Cholesterol Treatment Trialists' (CTT) Collaboration was originally established to conduct individual participant data meta-analyses of major vascular events, cause-specific mortality, and site-specific cancers in large, long-term, randomized trials of statin therapy (and other cholesterol-modifying treatments). The results of the trials of statin therapy and their associated meta-analyses have shown that statins significantly reduce the risk of major vascular events without any increase in the risk of nonvascular causes of death or of site-specific cancer, but do produce small increases in the incidence of myopathy, diabetes, and, probably, hemorrhagic stroke. The CTT Collaboration has not previously sought data on other outcomes, and so a comprehensive meta-analysis of all adverse events recorded in each of the eligible trials has not been conducted. This protocol prospectively describes plans to extend the CTT meta-analysis data set so as to provide a more complete understanding of the nature and magnitude of any other effects of statin therapy.

Vascular and upper gastrointestinal effects of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs: meta-analyses of individual participant data from randomised trials

BACKGROUND

The vascular and gastrointestinal effects of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), including selective COX-2 inhibitors (coxibs) and traditional non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (tNSAIDs), are not well characterised, particularly in patients at increased risk of vascular disease. We aimed to provide such information through meta-analyses of randomised trials.

METHODS

We undertook meta-analyses of 280 trials of NSAIDs versus placebo (124,513 participants, 68,342 person-years) and 474 trials of one NSAID versus another NSAID (229,296 participants, 165,456 person-years). The main outcomes were major vascular events (non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, or vascular death); major coronary events (non-fatal myocardial infarction or coronary death); stroke; mortality; heart failure; and upper gastrointestinal complications (perforation, obstruction, or bleed).

FINDINGS

Major vascular events were increased by about a third by a coxib (rate ratio [RR] 1·37, 95% CI 1·14-1·66; p=0·0009) or diclofenac (1·41, 1·12-1·78; p=0·0036), chiefly due to an increase in major coronary events (coxibs 1·76, 1·31-2·37; p=0·0001; diclofenac 1·70, 1·19-2·41; p=0·0032). Ibuprofen also significantly increased major coronary events (2·22, 1·10-4·48; p=0·0253), but not major vascular events (1·44, 0·89-2·33). Compared with placebo, of 1000 patients allocated to a coxib or diclofenac for a year, three more had major vascular events, one of which was fatal. Naproxen did not significantly increase major vascular events (0·93, 0·69-1·27). Vascular death was increased significantly by coxibs (1·58, 99% CI 1·00-2·49; p=0·0103) and diclofenac (1·65, 0·95-2·85, p=0·0187), non-significantly by ibuprofen (1·90, 0·56-6·41; p=0·17), but not by naproxen (1·08, 0·48-2·47, p=0·80). The proportional effects on major vascular events were independent of baseline characteristics, including vascular risk. Heart failure risk was roughly doubled by all NSAIDs. All NSAID regimens increased upper gastrointestinal complications (coxibs 1·81, 1·17-2·81, p=0·0070; diclofenac 1·89, 1·16-3·09, p=0·0106; ibuprofen 3·97, 2·22-7·10, p<0·0001; and naproxen 4·22, 2·71-6·56, p<0·0001).

INTERPRETATION

The vascular risks of high-dose diclofenac, and possibly ibuprofen, are comparable to coxibs, whereas high-dose naproxen is associated with less vascular risk than other NSAIDs. Although NSAIDs increase vascular and gastrointestinal risks, the size of these risks can be predicted, which could help guide clinical decision making.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council and British Heart Foundation.

Efficacy and safety of more intensive lowering of LDL cholesterol: a meta-analysis of data from 170,000 participants in 26 randomised trials

BACKGROUND

Lowering of LDL cholesterol with standard statin regimens reduces the risk of occlusive vascular events in a wide range of individuals. We aimed to assess the safety and efficacy of more intensive lowering of LDL cholesterol with statin therapy.

METHODS

We undertook meta-analyses of individual participant data from randomised trials involving at least 1000 participants and at least 2 years' treatment duration of more versus less intensive statin regimens (five trials; 39 612 individuals; median follow-up 5·1 years) and of statin versus control (21 trials; 129 526 individuals; median follow-up 4·8 years). For each type of trial, we calculated not only the average risk reduction, but also the average risk reduction per 1·0 mmol/L LDL cholesterol reduction at 1 year after randomisation.

FINDINGS

In the trials of more versus less intensive statin therapy, the weighted mean further reduction in LDL cholesterol at 1 year was 0·51 mmol/L. Compared with less intensive regimens, more intensive regimens produced a highly significant 15% (95% CI 11-18; p<0·0001) further reduction in major vascular events, consisting of separately significant reductions in coronary death or non-fatal myocardial infarction of 13% (95% CI 7-19; p<0·0001), in coronary revascularisation of 19% (95% CI 15-24; p<0·0001), and in ischaemic stroke of 16% (95% CI 5-26; p=0·005). Per 1·0 mmol/L reduction in LDL cholesterol, these further reductions in risk were similar to the proportional reductions in the trials of statin versus control. When both types of trial were combined, similar proportional reductions in major vascular events per 1·0 mmol/L LDL cholesterol reduction were found in all types of patient studied (rate ratio [RR] 0·78, 95% CI 0·76-0·80; p<0·0001), including those with LDL cholesterol lower than 2 mmol/L on the less intensive or control regimen. Across all 26 trials, all-cause mortality was reduced by 10% per 1·0 mmol/L LDL reduction (RR 0·90, 95% CI 0·87-0·93; p<0·0001), largely reflecting significant reductions in deaths due to coronary heart disease (RR 0·80, 99% CI 0·74-0·87; p<0·0001) and other cardiac causes (RR 0·89, 99% CI 0·81-0·98; p=0·002), with no significant effect on deaths due to stroke (RR 0·96, 95% CI 0·84-1·09; p=0·5) or other vascular causes (RR 0·98, 99% CI 0·81-1·18; p=0·8). No significant effects were observed on deaths due to cancer or other non-vascular causes (RR 0·97, 95% CI 0·92-1·03; p=0·3) or on cancer incidence (RR 1·00, 95% CI 0·96-1·04; p=0·9), even at low LDL cholesterol concentrations.

INTERPRETATION

Further reductions in LDL cholesterol safely produce definite further reductions in the incidence of heart attack, of revascularisation, and of ischaemic stroke, with each 1·0 mmol/L reduction reducing the annual rate of these major vascular events by just over a fifth. There was no evidence of any threshold within the cholesterol range studied, suggesting that reduction of LDL cholesterol by 2-3 mmol/L would reduce risk by about 40-50%.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, European Community Biomed Programme, Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, and National Heart Foundation.

Effect of pravastatin on frequency of fracture in the LIPID study: secondary analysis of a randomised controlled trial. Long-term Intervention with Pravastatin in Ischaemic Disease

BACKGROUND

Statins inhibit the same biochemical pathway as aminobisphosphonates, therefore these cholesterol-lowering agents may have a beneficial effect on osteoporosis. This possibility has been supported by the finding that some statins also stimulate bone formation, and by observational studies suggesting that patients using statins have higher bone densities and lower fracture rates than controls. To assess whether statins have clinically significant effects on bone, we studied the frequency of fractures in a large randomised controlled trial of these agents.

METHODS

9014 patients (17% women, median age 62 years) with ischaemic heart disease were randomly assigned pravastatin 40 mg daily or placebo and followed up for a mean of 6.0 years. Fractures were ascertained from adverse-event reports.

FINDINGS

101 patients in the placebo group were admitted to hospital for fracture compared with 107 in the pravastatin group (hazard ratio 1.05 [95% CI 0.80-1.37]). When patients with fractures not necessitating hospital admission were added, the total number of patients having a fracture was 183 in the placebo group and 175 in the pravastatin group (0.94 [0.77-1.16]). Separate analyses for women alone and for individuals aged 65 years and over gave similar results.

INTERPRETATION

These findings offer no support for the hypothesis that statins have a significant effect on fracture risk. However, this study was not of an osteoporotic population, and fracture rate, although clinically important, is an insensitive index of effects on bone. Statins should not be used to prevent osteoporosis until there is evidence for their efficacy based on randomised controlled trials.

Effects of pravastatin in 3260 patients with unstable angina: results from the LIPID study

BACKGROUND

The LIPID study is a major trial of secondary prevention of coronary-heart-disease events that includes hospital admission with unstable angina (as well as myocardial infarction) as a qualifying event. In this substudy of LIPID, we compared subsequent cardiovascular risks and the effects of pravastatin in patients with previous unstable angina or previous myocardial infarction.

METHODS

3260 patients diagnosed with unstable angina and 5754 with acute myocardial infarction 3-36 months previously were randomly assigned 40 mg pravastatin daily or placebo over a mean of 6.0 years. The risk reduction of a range of cardiovascular events was estimated by means of the hazard ratio in Cox's proportional hazards model.

FINDINGS

Among patients assigned placebo, survival in the two diagnosis groups was similar. The relative risk reduction for mortality with pravastatin was 20.6% in the myocardial infarction group and 26.3% in the unstable angina group (p=0.55). Pravastatin significantly reduced the rates of all prespecified coronary endpoints in the myocardial infarction group. In patients with previous unstable angina, coronary heart disease mortality, total mortality, myocardial infarction, a need for coronary revascularisation, the number of admissions to hospital, and the number of days in hospital were significantly lower with pravastatin. Overall, hospital admission for unstable angina was the most common endpoint (24.6% of the placebo group; 22.3% of the pravastatin group).

INTERPRETATION

Patients who have survived acute myocardial infarction or unstable angina have a similar long-term prognosis, a high occurrence of subsequent unstable angina, and benefit similarly from therapy with pravastatin.

Self-injurious behaviour in people with a mental handicap

The population of a hospital for people with a mental handicap was surveyed and numerous variables analysed with regard to people displaying self-injurious behaviour (SIB). It is suggested that age, level of mental handicap, activities in which the person is engaged, and having no expressive language each has a significant influence on the frequency of self-injurious behaviour. Nearly three-quarters of the survey population were without expressive language and a majority self-injured more than once a day. Treatment methods employed were also included in the survey.