Urgent appeal to allow all professional nurses and midwives to prescribe pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in South Africa

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Cohort profile: the ESC EURObservational Research Programme Non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infraction (NSTEMI) Registry

AIMS

The European Society of Cardiology (ESC) EURObservational Research Programme (EORP) Non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) Registry aims to identify international patterns in NSTEMI management in clinical practice and outcomes against the 2015 ESC Guidelines for the management of acute coronary syndromes in patients presenting without ST-segment-elevation.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Consecutively hospitalised adult NSTEMI patients (n = 3620) were enrolled between 11 March 2019 and 6 March 2021, and individual patient data prospectively collected at 287 centres in 59 participating countries during a two-week enrolment period per centre. The registry collected data relating to baseline characteristics, major outcomes (in-hospital death, acute heart failure, cardiogenic shock, bleeding, stroke/transient ischaemic attack, and 30-day mortality) and guideline-recommended NSTEMI care interventions: electrocardiogram pre- or in-hospital, pre-hospitalization receipt of aspirin, echocardiography, coronary angiography, referral to cardiac rehabilitation, smoking cessation advice, dietary advice, and prescription on discharge of aspirin, P2Y12 inhibition, angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEi)/angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB), beta-blocker, and statin.

CONCLUSION

The EORP NSTEMI Registry is an international, prospective registry of care and outcomes of patients treated for NSTEMI, which will provide unique insights into the contemporary management of hospitalised NSTEMI patients, compliance with ESC 2015 NSTEMI Guidelines, and identify potential barriers to optimal management of this common clinical presentation associated with significant morbidity and mortality.

Proactive care post-discharge to reduce 30 day readmissions to hospital

BACKGROUND

Healthwatch England estimated emergency readmissions have risen by 22.8% between 2012-13 and 2016-17. Some emergency readmissions could be avoided by providing patients with urgent out of hospital medical care or support. Sovereign Health Network (SHN) comprises of three GP practices, with a combined population of 38,000.

OBJECTIVE

We will decrease the number of SHN patients readmitted within 30 days of discharge from Portsmouth Hospitals Trust following a non-elective admission (excluding Emergency Department attendance) by 40-60% by July 2020.

METHODS

Four Plan, Do, Study, Act (PDSA) cycles were used to test the administrative and clinical processes. Our Advanced Nurse Practitioner reviewed all discharge summaries, added alerts to records, and proactively contacted patients either by text, telephone or home visit.

RESULTS

92 patients aged 23 days to 97 years were admitted onto the recent discharge scheme. Half of discharge summaries were received on the day of discharge, whilst 29% of discharge summaries were received more than 24 hours post-discharge, and one was received 11 days post-discharge. Following our interventions, there were 55% less than expected readmissions during the same time period.

CONCLUSION

To allow proactive interventions to be instigated in a timely manner, discharge summaries need to be received promptly. The average readmission length of stay following a non-elective admission is seven days. Our proactive interventions saved approximately 102.9 bed days, with potential savings of 1,775 bed days over a year. We feel the results from our model are promising and could be replicated by other Primary Care Networks to result in larger savings in bed days.

Impact of cardiovascular events on primary and hospital care costs: findings from UK Biobank study

Background

Need for primary and secondary healthcare increases following cardiovascular disease (CVD) events but there is no data on comparative increases in costs.

Purpose

To estimate annual primary care and hospital inpatient costs associated with key CVD and other adverse events using the UK Biobank (UKB) individual participant data.

Methods

UKB participants with linked primary care data (192,983 participants) or hospital inpatient episodes data (all 501,807 participants) contributed data to this study. The three categories of primary care services (patient consultations, diagnostic and monitoring tests, prescription medications), and hospital episodes were costed (2020 UK£) using the NHS England reference costs. Annual primary care costs and, separately, annual hospital inpatient costs were modelled as functions of participant characteristics at entry (socio-demographic, clinical, prior diseases) and time-updated first occurrences of myocardial infarction, stroke, coronary revascularization, incident cancer, incident diabetes, vascular death and non-vascular death during follow-up (p-value <0.01 in stepwise covariate selection). One-part generalized linear regression model (GLM) with Poisson distribution and identity link function was used for primary care costs, and two-part model was used for inpatient costs (part 1: logistic regression models probability of incurring costs; part 2: GLM with Poisson distribution and identity link function models costs conditional on incurring any). Separate models were fitted among participants with and without previous CVD at entry into UKB.

Results

Most adverse events were associated with excess primary care and hospital inpatient costs. Compared to people without previous CVD, people with previous CVD had on average larger excess primary care and hospital inpatient costs in years with myocardial infarction, stroke and vascular death; but similar excess costs in years with other events. Among both people without and with previous CVD, the excess annual primary care costs were less than 7% of the excess annual hospital inpatient costs for vascular events (Table). However, following diabetes diagnosis the excess annual primary care costs were higher than the excess annual hospital inpatient costs (Table).

Conclusions

These excess primary and hospital care costs associated with CVD events could inform assessments of interventions and policies to reduce CVD risks in UK.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): UK National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment (HTA) Programme, UK Medical Research Council (MRC), British Heart Foundation

Cost-effectiveness of statin therapy in categories of patients in the UK

Background

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality has declined steadily over the last few decades across Europe and North America.

Purpose

To provide contemporary estimates of long-term effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of statin therapy in different categories of patients in UK.

Methods

The CTT-UKB micro-simulation model, developed using the Cholesterol Treatment Trialists' Collaboration data (CTT: 118,000 participants; 5 years follow-up), and calibrated in the UK Biobank cohort (UKB: 502,000 participants; 9 years follow-up). The model integrates parametric risk equations for incident myocardial infarction, stroke, coronary revascularization, diabetes, cancer and vascular and nonvascular death, and projects annually these endpoints and survival using patient characteristics at entry. UKB data and linked primary and hospital care data informed healthcare costs in the model (2020 UK£); 2021 UK NHS Drug Tariff informed statin costs (atorvastatin 40mg at £1.22 and 80mg at £1.68 per 28 tablets); and Health Survey for England data informed health-related quality of life in the model. Previous CTT meta-analysis, atorvastatin dose-response randomized trials, and further meta-analyses of statin trials and cohort studies informed effects of 40mg/80mg atorvastatin therapy daily on rates of incident myocardial infarction, stroke, coronary revascularization, vascular death, diabetes, myopathy and rhabdomyolysis.

The model was used to project gains in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and additional cost per QALY with lifetime use of atorvastatin 40mg or 80mg daily in categories of UKB participants by sex, age at statin initiation (40–49; 50–59 and 60–70 years), and 10-year CVD risk (QRISK3 risk (%): <5; 5–10, 10–15, 15–20, ≥20). Further scenarios explored effects of 5-year delay of statin initiation in people under 45 years of age or stopping statin therapy at 80 years of age.

Results

Across men and women in categories by age and CVD risk, lifetime use of atorvastatin 40mg daily was associated with increases in survival by 0.44–1.69 years (0.28–1.02 QALYs), and atorvastatin 80mg daily with increases in survival of 0.45–1.87 years (0.32–1.13 QALYs; Figure 1) with gains larger among participants at higher CVD risk. Both atorvastatin 40mg and 80mg doses were in the range of cost-effective treatments with incremental cost per QALY gained with atorvastatin 40mg daily versus no statin therapy below £7200/QALY and with atorvastatin 80mg vs 40mg daily below £16000/QALY (Figure 2) across all patient categories studied. Compared to lifetime statin therapy, stopping therapy at 80 years of age substantially reduced benefits and was not cost-effective in any patient category studied. Similarly, compared to immediate initiation, 5-year delay of statin therapy in 40–45 years old patients was not a cost-effective.

Conclusions

In the UK, statin therapy remains highly cost-effective across men and women 40–70 years old, including those at 10-year CVD risk <5%.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): UK National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment (HTA) Programme, UK National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment (HTA) Programme, UK Medical Research Council (MRC), British Heart Foundation

Antiplatelet therapy use for the secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease in 2009–2017: a population-wide retrospective cohort study of Scotland

Background

Few studies have analysed the adequacy of antiplatelet therapy (APT) use for secondary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). Some studies found utilisation to be suboptimal. However, information on the extent of APT use at different treatment stages and over time, and the role of particular individual characteristics, is limited.

Purpose

To use large-scale population-wide individual patient data to investigate the extent of, and determinants for, suboptimal use of effective APT, in order to identify patient groups that could be targeted to improve medication use.

Methods

This retrospective open cohort study used anonymised large-scale population-wide individual patient NHS Scotland data (hospital admissions, national death records, prescribing information and speciality mental health admissions) for all individuals hospitalised for ASCVD (based on ICD-10 discharge codes) in Scotland between 1 October 2009 and 31 December 2017. APT initiation was defined as a prescription of APT within 90 days of ASCVD hospital discharge with dispensing within 60 days of the prescription. Adherence was defined as ≥80% of days covered with dispensed therapy. Discontinuation of APT was defined as a treatment gap of 180 days or more since initiation. Multivariable cross-sectional logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models were used to study the relevance of patient characteristics (e.g., demographic, clinical, socioeconomic) to the likelihood of, respectively, initiating or discontinuing APT. Findings are reported for all ASCVD events and, separately, for myocardial infarction (MI), ischaemic stroke, peripheral arterial disease (PAD) and other ASCVD events.

Results

Of 150,728 individuals hospitalised for ASCVD (excluding any diagnosis of atrial fibrillation), 16% did not initiate any APT. Initiation was less common in women (22% less likely than men), people aged ≥70 or <50 (21% and 39% less likely for patients in their 70s and 80s respectively vs. 60s; 26% less likely for patients below age 50 vs. 60s), people living in more deprived areas, people receiving specialist mental health care and people with multiple morbidities (Figure). There was substantial variation for lack of initiation across ASCVD types (e.g., MI 6%, PAD: 32%). In 2015/17, 72% of MI patients and 69% of patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention received guideline-recommended dual-APT. While on treatment, 93% of users were adherent. However, about a quarter (23%) discontinued treatment. Similar characteristics linked to lack of initiation of APT were associated with an increased risk of discontinuation.

Conclusions

APT initiation and persistence remain suboptimal, especially in women, people aged below 50 years and 70 years or older, people with multiple morbidities or mental illness, and following non-MI ASCVD events. This needs to be addressed by clinicians and policy-makers to further reduce cardiovascular risk.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public Institution(s). Main funding source(s): Oxford British Heart Foundation Centre of Research Excellence (BHF CRE) Pump Priming Scheme; Medical Research Council Doctoral Training Programme (MRC DTP) studentship.

Benefit accrual with cardiovascular disease prevention and effects of discontinuation: a modelling study

Background

Statin therapy reduces rates of heart attacks and strokes and improves survival in people at increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. However, there is some uncertainty when to start and how long to persist with statin therapy so as to optimise benefits.

Purpose

To project the accrual of benefit with statin therapy in population groups by age at therapy initiation using a newly developed micro-simulation model.

Methods

Participants without previous CVD (N=44,412) and with previous CVD (N=13,061) at entry were randomly selected from the UK Biobank cohort, ensuring sufficient representation in respective categories by age, LDL cholesterol, diabetes and 10-year CVD risk categories (QRISK3 score, for those without previous CVD only). The CTT-UKB model, a CVD micro-simulation model [1], was used to predict subsequent survival and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) of the participants using their characteristics at entry. Treatment with atorvastatin 40mg daily was used as an example to illustrate the effect of the therapy compared to no such therapy. Scenarios include: (1) lifelong preventive therapy, (2) preventive therapy stopped at 80 years of age, and (3) delayed initiation of preventive therapy by 5 years in participants under 45 years of age.

Results

Statin treatment benefits, measured in QALYs gained, accrue over lifetime. The majority of benefits accrue later in life. Men accumulate larger benefits and earlier than women (Figure 1A). The pattern of benefits accrual is similar for participants with and without previous CVD (data not shown). The higher the participants' CVD risk, the larger and earlier the benefits, with younger participants accruing larger benefits (Figure 1B). Compared with lifelong prevention, stopping treatment at 80 years of age leads to large reductions in overall benefits, especially in women and those at lower CVD risk. For example, compared to lifelong therapy, people without previous CVD who initiate therapy in their 50s, would lose 47% of QALYs benefit (if men), 66% (if women), 73% (if with CVD risk <5%), and 35% (if with CVD risk ≥20%), respectively, if they stop treatment when they reach 80 years of age. Five-year delay of statin therapy initiation in people under 45 years of age reduces their benefits by about 4% on average, though the loss is somewhat larger in people at higher CVD risk (Figure 2).

Conclusion

Benefits from lifelong cardiovascular prevention accrue over peoples' lifespan with large share of benefits accruing at older age. Stopping treatment earlier substantially reduces benefits.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): UK NationalInstitute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment (HTA) Programme, UK Medical Research Council (MRC), and British Heart Foundation

Long-term safety and efficacy of anacetrapib in patients with atherosclerotic vascular disease

AIMS

REVEAL was the first randomized controlled trial to demonstrate that adding cholesteryl ester transfer protein inhibitor therapy to intensive statin therapy reduced the risk of major coronary events. We now report results from extended follow-up beyond the scheduled study treatment period.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A total of 30 449 adults with prior atherosclerotic vascular disease were randomly allocated to anacetrapib 100 mg daily or matching placebo, in addition to open-label atorvastatin therapy. After stopping the randomly allocated treatment, 26 129 survivors entered a post-trial follow-up period, blind to their original treatment allocation. The primary outcome was first post-randomization major coronary event (i.e. coronary death, myocardial infarction, or coronary revascularization) during the in-trial and post-trial treatment periods, with analysis by intention-to-treat. Allocation to anacetrapib conferred a 9% [95% confidence interval (CI) 3-15%; P = 0.004] proportional reduction in the incidence of major coronary events during the study treatment period (median 4.1 years). During extended follow-up (median 2.2 years), there was a further 20% (95% CI 10-29%; P < 0.001) reduction. Overall, there was a 12% (95% CI 7-17%, P < 0.001) proportional reduction in major coronary events during the overall follow-up period (median 6.3 years), corresponding to a 1.8% (95% CI 1.0-2.6%) absolute reduction. There were no significant effects on non-vascular mortality, site-specific cancer, or other serious adverse events. Morbidity follow-up was obtained for 25 784 (99%) participants.

CONCLUSION

The beneficial effects of anacetrapib on major coronary events increased with longer follow-up, and no adverse effects emerged on non-vascular mortality or morbidity. These findings illustrate the importance of sufficiently long treatment and follow-up duration in randomized trials of lipid-modifying agents to assess their full benefits and potential harms.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number (ISRCTN) 48678192; ClinicalTrials.gov No. NCT01252953; EudraCT No. 2010-023467-18.

A model of lifetime health outcomes in cardiovascular disease based on clinical trials and large cohorts

Background and purpose

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk of individuals depends on their socio-demographic characteristics, clinical risk factors, and treatments, and strongly influences their quality of life and survival. Individual-based long-term disease models, which aim to more accurately calculate the lifetime consequences, can help to target treatments, develop disease management programmes, and assess the value of new therapies. We present a new micro-simulation CVD model.

Methods

This micro-simulation model was developed using individual participant data from the Cholesterol Treatment Trialists' collaboration (CTT: 118,000 participants; 15 trials) and calibrated (with added socioeconomic deprivation, ethnicity, physical activity, mental illness, cancer and incident diabetes) in the UK Biobank cohort (UKB: 502,000 participants). Parametric survival models estimated risks of key endpoints (myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, coronary revascularisation (CRV), diabetes, cancer and vascular (VD) and nonvascular death (NVD) using participants' age, sex, ethnicity, physical activity, socioeconomic deprivation, smoking history, lipids, blood pressure, creatinine, previous cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, mental illness and cancer at entry and non-fatal incidents of the key endpoints during follow-up. The model integrates the risk equations and enables annual projection of endpoints and survival over individuals' lifetimes. The model was used to project remaining life expectancy across UK Biobank participants.

Results

Nonfatal cardiovascular events and age were the major determinants of CVD risk and, together with incident diabetes and cancer, of individuals' survival. The cumulative incidence of the key endpoints predicted by the CTT-UKB model corresponded well to their observed incidence in the UK Biobank cohort, overall (Figure 1) and in categories of participants by age, sex, prior CVD and CVD risk. Predicted remaining life expectancy across UK Biobank participants without history of CVD ranged between 22 and 43 years in men and between 24 and 46 years in women, depending on their age and CVD risk (Figure 2). Among UK Biobank participants with history of CVD, depending on their age, predicted remaining life expectancy ranged from 20 to 32 years in men and from 26 to 38 years in women.

Conclusion

This new lifetime CVD model accurately predicts morbidity and mortality in a large UK population cohort. It will be made available to provide individualised projections of expected lifetime health outcomes and benefits of treatments.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): UK National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment (HTA) Programme, UK Medical Research Council (MRC), British Heart Foundation Figure 1. Predicted (in black) versus observed (95% CI; in red) incidence of major clinical outcomes in the UK Biobank.Figure 2. Predicted remaining life expectancy of participants in UK Biobank cohort, by age and CVD risk or previous CVD at entry. QRISK, a 10-year CVD risk scoring algorithm for people without previous CVD, recommended for use in the UK National Health Service.

Impact of adverse events on quality of life and hospital costs in secondary cardiovascular disease prevention

Background and purpose

People with atherosclerotic vascular disease remain at high risk of cardiovascular (CVD) events despite effective risk factor management 1. There is little research on impacts of adverse events on quality of life (QoL) and hospital cost to inform evaluations of novel interventions in this population. We estimate QoL and annual hospital costs associated with a range of adverse events of interests using the individual participant data from the Randomized Evaluation of the Effects of Anacetrapib through Lipid Modification (REVEAL) trial.

Methods

Data from the 30,449 participants with atherosclerotic vascular disease receiving effective statin therapy in REVEAL, were used to estimate regression models for participants' hospital costs and QoL using participants' characteristics at entry (socio-demographic, clinical, prior diseases and treatments) and time-updated adverse events. We estimate costs and QoL in the year of an event, and in subsequent years, using stepwise covariate selection (p-value &lt;0.01). Standard errors were adjusted for clustering of participant annual costs.

Hospital episodes were costed (2019 UK£) using the UK Healthcare Resource Groups reference costs 2. One- and two-part generalized linear regression models (GLMs) for annual hospital costs (part 1: logistic model for estimating probability of incurring cost, part 2: GLM with Gaussian, Poisson or Gamma distributions with identity or log links for estimating costs, conditional on incurring any) were compared.

EQ-5D-5L questionnaires, completed by study participants at entry and final follow-up visits in the study, were mapped into QoL utility scores 3. QoL utility at final follow-up was used to estimate QoL decrements of adverse events using GLM linear model and adjusting for QoL at entry in addition to other participants characteristics.

Results

The two-part model with gamma distribution and identity link, indicated by specification tests and model fit statistics, was selected for modelling annual hospital costs (Figure 1). Non-haemorrhagic stroke, non-coronary revascularization, coronary revascularization and incident cancer were associated with highest hospital costs. The QoL model (Figure 2) indicated large QoL decrements associated with non-fatal non-haemorrhagic stroke, heart failure hospitalization, incident cancer and non-coronary revascularization, and comparatively small QoL decrement associated with experiencing non-fatal myocardial infarction.

Conclusion

These cost and QoL models in a well-managed contemporary high CVD risk patient population would assist in assessments of long-term net effects and cost-effectiveness of novel interventions to reduce cardiovascular risk.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Other. Main funding source(s): Merck Sharp & Dohme and UK Medical Research Council Figure 1Figure 2

Determinants of statin initiation and discontinuation in the secondary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in Scotland during 2009–2017

Background

Previous studies have shown that use of statins for secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is suboptimal. However, the role of particular individual characteristics at different treatment stages is limited.

Purpose

To use large-scale population-wide individual patient data to investigate reasons for suboptimal use of effective CVD medications, in order to identify patient groups that could be targeted to improve medication adherence.

Methods

This observational longitudinal study used anonymised linked NHS Scotland administrative data (General/Acute Inpatient and Day Case, the National Records of Scotland and the Prescribing Information System) for all individuals hospitalised for an atherosclerotic CVD event (based on ICD-10 discharge codes) in Scotland between 1 April 2009 and 31 December 2017. Statin initiation was defined as individuals being prescribed statin therapy within 90 days from index discharge and dispensed within 60 days from that prescription. Discontinuation was defined as the start of first statin treatment gap of 180 days or more since initiation. Multivariate logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models were used to study the relevance of patient characteristics (e.g. demographic, clinical, socio-economic) and admission calendar year to the likelihood of, respectively, initiating or discontinuing statin treatment. Findings are reported for all CVD events and, separately, for myocardial infarction (MI), ischaemic stroke (IS) and peripheral arterial disease (PAD).

Results

Of the 178,113 patients hospitalised for CVD, 19% did not initiate statin treatment. Among the 144,077 patients initiating (40% on high-intensity statins, as defined by NICE guidelines), 25% discontinued treatment within 2 years. Initiation was less common in women (29% less likely than men), older people (22% and 50% less likely for patients in their 70s and 80s respectively vs. 60s), people living in more deprived areas, people receiving specialist mental health care, people with multiple morbidities and people not taking statin prior to admission (Figure). Most of these characteristics were also associated with a decreased likelihood of initiating high-intensity statins, as well as an increased risk of discontinuing statin therapy. In later years, levels of statin initiation, including on higher-intensity statins (58% of statin initiators in 2015–17 vs. 32% in 2009–11), and statin persistence have improved.

Conclusions

Rates of statin initiation and discontinuation remain suboptimal, especially among women, older people and people with multiple morbidities or mental health illness.

Figure 1. Patient characteristics associated with initiation and discontinuation of statin treatment after atherosclerotic CVD event.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Foundation. Main funding source(s): British Heart Foundation Centre of Research Excellence (Pump Priming Scheme), Medical Research Council UK

Outcomes after coronary artery bypass graft surgery: systematic review and meta-analysis comparing bilateral versus single internal thoracic artery grafts

Background

Patients with diabetes and/or obesity are at higher risk of adverse outcomes following coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). The use of bilateral internal thoracic arteries (BITA) can potentially offer survival benefit in higher risk patients compared to single internal thoracic artery (SITA) in patients undergoing CABG, but the overall evidence base for BITA has not influenced guidelines, and there are concerns over increased risk of sternal wound complications.

Methods

We conducted a systematic review of the literature to identify observational studies and randomised controlled trials (RCT) comparing the efficacy (mortality) and safety (sternal wound infection) of BITA and SITA in diabetic and obese patients.

Results

We identified 18 observational studies and one RCT to obtain data comparing BITA and SITA in 19,589 diabetic patients, and two observational studies and one RCT comparing BITA and SITA in 6972 obese patients. Pooled analysis demonstrated significant mortality benefit of BITA compared to SITA in diabetic patients (risk ratio [RR] 0.79; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.70, 0.90; Z=3.62, p=0.0003; I2=88%) (Figure 1a). Pooled analysis in obese patients found no significant difference in mortality rates between BITA and SITA (RR 0.73, 95% CI 0.47, 1.12; Z=1.43, p=0.15; I2=78%) (Figure 1b). A significantly higher rate of sternal wound complications following BITA was observed in diabetic (RR 1.53, 95% CI 1.23, 1.90; Z=3.86, p=0.0001; I2=4%) and obese patients (RR 2.24, 95% CI 1.63, 3.07; Z=5.00, p&lt;0.00001; I2=0%).

Conclusions

BITA is associated with better long-term survival in diabetic patients, but most of the supportive data comes from observational studies. The effects of BITA grafting in patients who are obese is uncertain due to low numbers. BITA is associated with higher rates of sternal wound complications than SITA in both diabetic and obese patients. Further research is needed to understand if BITA has a role in higher risk patients undergoing CABG.

Figure 1. Pooled all-cause mortality

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: None

High-sensitivity cardiac troponin concentrations at presentation in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction

Background

The widespread adoption of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin testing has encouraged the use of pathways to accelerate the rule-out and rule-in myocardial infarction in the Emergency Department. These pathways are not recommended for patients with ST-segment elevation, but there is a risk they may be applied incorrectly given that interpretation of the electrocardiogram is subjective, dependent on experience, and signs may be masked in those with posterior myocardial infarction.

Methods

Consecutive patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome were enrolled in a stepped-wedge cluster randomized controlled trial across ten hospitals in Scotland. The index diagnosis was adjudicated two clinicians independently in all patients with high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I concentrations above the sex-specific 99th centile on serial testing and abnormalities on the electrocardiogram recorded. The proportion of patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction and concentrations below the rule-out threshold (&lt;5 ng/L), 99th centile (&lt;16 ng/L and &lt;34 ng/L for women and men) and rule-in threshold (&lt;52 ng/L) at presentation were determined.

Results

In total 48,282 patients were recruited between June 2013, and March 2016 of which 22% (10,360/48,282) had peak cardiac troponin concentrations above the 99th centile. The adjudicated diagnosis was type 1 myocardial infarction in 55% (4,981/9,115) of patients and 10% (925/9,115) had ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (age 65 [14] years, 68% men). The majority presented within 6 hours of symptom onset (67%, 619/925), and 84% (772/925) had cardiac troponin concentrations above the 99th centile at presentation. However, troponin concentrations were below the rule-out threshold in 2% (20/925) and the rule-in threshold in 26% (240/925) of patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction.

Discussion

In patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome who have a final diagnosis of ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin concentrations are below the rule-out and rule-in threshold at presentation in 1 in 50 and 1 in 4 patients, respectively. Clinicians should not rely on cardiac troponin concentrations to guide initial treatment decisions in patients with possible ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: Foundation. Main funding source(s): British Heart Foundation

Effects of diabetes and obesity in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft surgery: ten-year results from the Arterial Revascularisation Trial

Background

Coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery is an effective way to manage advanced coronary heart disease. Diabetes is associated with higher risk of mortality in patients undergoing CABG but the effects of obesity, and the interactions between diabetes and obesity in the context of CABG, have not been fully explored.

Methods

The Arterial Revascularisation Trial (ART) compared ten-year mortality in patients undergoing CABG randomised to single or bilateral internal thoracic arterial grafts. Effects of diabetes and obesity on mortality and risk (sternal wound complications) were explored. Diabetes was defined according to clinical history at baseline and combined insulin and non-insulin dependent patients, and obesity was defined as body mass index (BMI) ≥30kg/m2 at baseline.

Results

Information on diabetes, obesity and ten-year mortality were documented for 3094 patients who were included in the analysis. Mean age was 64 years, 86% male, mean weight 82kg and BMI 28. Diabetes was documented in 24% and obesity in 30% and as expected obese patients were more likely to be diabetic. The hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for ten-year mortality using the no diabetes, non-obese group as a reference were 1.33 (1.08, 1.64) (diabetes, non-obese), 0.93 (0.75, 1.16) (no diabetes, obese) and 1.18 (0.91, 1.54) (diabetes, obese) groups (Figure 1). Similar patterns of risk were observed whether patients were randomised to receive single or bilateral internal thoracic arteries and diabetes appeared to be the main driver of elevated risk of early sternal wound complications following CABG.

Conclusions

Obesity and diabetes are closely associated but our analysis shows that patterns of risk of death after CABG are not additive for these characteristics, and obesity may actually be associated with lower death rates in patients with and without diabetes. These findings will be explored further to understand mechanisms and interactions with other factors.

Figure 1. Hazard ratios at 10 years

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding source: None

The use of patient-reported outcome measures to guide referral for hip and knee arthroplasty

AIMS

To assess how the cost-effectiveness of total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) varies with age, sex, and preoperative Oxford Hip or Knee Score (OHS/OKS); and to identify the patient groups for whom THA/TKA is cost-effective.

METHODS

We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis using a Markov model from a United Kingdom NHS perspective, informed by published analyses of patient-level data. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of THA and TKA in adults with hip or knee osteoarthritis compared with having no arthroplasty surgery during the ten-year time horizon.

RESULTS

THA and TKA cost < £7,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained at all preoperative scores below the absolute referral thresholds calculated previously (40 for OHS and 41 for OKS). Furthermore, THA cost < £20,000/QALY for patients with OHS of ≤ 45, while TKA was cost-effective for patients with OKS of ≤ 43, since the small improvements in quality of life outweighed the cost of surgery and any subsequent revisions. Probabilistic and one-way sensitivity analyses demonstrated that there is little uncertainty around the conclusions.

CONCLUSION

If society is willing to pay £20,000 per QALY gained, THA and TKA are cost-effective for nearly all patients who currently undergo surgery, including all patients at and above our calculated absolute referral thresholds. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2020;102-B(7):950-958.

OP0234 MBS2320, A NOVEL SELECTIVE MODULATOR OF IMMUNE METABOLISM, IN PATIENTS WITH SEVERE RHEUMATOID ARTHRITIS: SAFETY, TOLERABILITY AND EFFICACY RESULTS OF A PHASE 2 STUDY

Background:

Despite the availability of several treatment options for Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA), many patients are classed as ‘non-responders’ who show little or no improvement. Hence, there remains a need for new therapies with a differentiated mechanism of action, to be used alone or in combination. MBS2320 is a selective modulator of immune metabolism displaying distinctive dual pharmacology: strong anti-inflammatory activity as well as a broader spectrum of osteoprotection than TNFα inhibition in preclinical models1.

Objectives:

To evaluate the safety, tolerability and efficacy of MBS2320 in patients receiving a stable dose of methotrexate (MTX).

Methods:

Patients with active RA on a stable dose of MTX were randomised 2:1 to receive MBS2320 (80mg) or matching placebo once daily for 4 weeks. Subject to a satisfactory safety and tolerability assessment, patients were escalated to a dose of 120 mg qd or remained on 80 mg qd for a further 8 weeks. Safety, efficacy, pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics were evaluated.

Results:

121 patients were randomised (Safety analysis set) to MBS2320 or matching placebo and 96 completed the study. Sixteen subjects were excluded from the efficacy analysis set due to evidence of poor compliance or absence of efficacy evaluations. Enrolled patients were mostly female (86.8%), white and with a mean (range) age at baseline (BL) of 52 (19-69) years.

The study population had hard-to-treat, severe, active and erosive disease as indicated by high BL DAS28-CRP and DAS28-ESR, low Week-12 placebo ACR50 and DAS28-CRP responder rates (2.5% and 5% respectively) and a low ratio of synovitis-to-erosion volume despite treatment with DMARD(s).

There were no serious treatment emergent adverse events (TEAEs). 15 patients (19%) randomised to MBS2320 withdrew due to TEAEs, predominantly of nausea. TEAEs were typically reported soon after dosing, were mostly mild in severity and resolved without treatment. Onset of TEAEs reduced as the study proceeded.

Gastrointestinal disorders were the most frequently reported TEAEs (all causalities) with a higher incidence in patients receiving MBS2320 (68.8%) than placebo (14.6%). Nausea was most frequently reported during Week 1 (27.3% patients). Asthenia and/or fatigue was reported more frequently in the MBS2320 treatment group (23.8% patients) than with placebo (7.3% patients), with the majority being considered related to study drug. Infections were more frequently reported by patients receiving placebo (22.0%) than those receiving MBS2320 (12.5%). There were no clinically relevant treatment-related trends in the biochemistry, haematology, urinalysis, vital signs or ECG data.

Higher ACR20 response rates were observed in patients receiving MBS2320 versus those receiving placebo at all time points and increased with time. At Week 12, ACR50 response rates with MBS2320 treatment were increased by >4-fold compared with placebo (11.6% vs 2.5%). Greater mean reductions from baseline in DAS28-CRP were also observed in patients receiving MBS2320 versus those receiving placebo at Week 12 (-18.6% vs -8.4%). DAS28-CRP responder rates were more than doubled with MBS2320 treatment compared to placebo (5% vs 14%). These changes were mirrored by improvements in tender joint counts, reduced hsCRP and improvements in Patient Reported Outcomes of pain VAS, Patients’ and Clinicians‘ Global Assessments of Disease Activity and Patients‘ Global Impression of Change.

Conclusion:

MBS2320 was generally well tolerated for up to 12 weeks in this RA study population. Nausea was the most common TEAE, was generally mild in severity and resolved without treatment. In this population of patients with hard-to-treat, severe, active, erosive disease MBS2320 showed evidence of a clinical benefit on both ACR20 responses and DAS28-CRP.

References:

[1]Patel et al, Ann Rheum Dis, 78, S2, 2019, A228

Acknowledgments:

Louise Jopling, Ian Anderson, Ian Gourley, Devenini Damayanthi,

Disclosure of Interests:

Lisa Patel Shareholder of: Istesso Ltd, Employee of: Istesso Ltd, Laurence Skillern Consultant of: Istesso Ltd, Martyn Foster Shareholder of: Istesso Ltd, Consultant of: Istesso Ltd, Andy Gray Shareholder of: Istesso Ltd, Consultant of: Istesso Ltd, Richard Leff Consultant of: Istesso Ltd, Sam Williams Shareholder of: Istesso Ltd, Employee of: Istesso Ltd

Tracking the dynamic ecological history of a tropical urban estuary as it responds to human pressures

Coastal cities in tropical areas are often low-lying and vulnerable to the effects of flooding and storms. San Juan, Puerto Rico is a good example of this. It is built around a lagoon-channel complex called the San Juan Bay Estuary (SJBE). A critical channel in the estuary, the Caño Martín Peña, has filled in and now frequently floods the surrounding communities with sewage-enriched waters, causing a series of human health and ecological problems. Sediment core analyses indicate that portions of the SJBE now function as settling basins. High urban and sewage runoff to the Caño contributes nitrogen (N), but stable isotope and sediment nutrient analyses indicate that this runoff may also enhance conditions for coupled sulfate reduction-nitrogen fixation. The amount of 'new' bioavailable N created from inert atmospheric N₂ gas may meet or exceed that from the runoff into the Caño Martín Peña. The ecological consequences of this appear to extend beyond the ponded channel, potentially contributing to the poor water quality of the SJBE, greater than contaminated runoff alone.

Transboundary movements of foot-and-mouth disease from India to Sri Lanka: A common pattern is shared by serotypes O and C

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) affects the livestock industry in a transboundary manner. It is essential to understand the FMD phylodynamics to assist in the disease-eradication. FMD critically affects the Sri Lankan cattle industry causing substantial economic losses. Even though many studies have covered the serotyping and genotyping of FMD virus (FMDV) in Sri Lanka, there is a significant knowledge gap exists in understanding the FMDV phylodynamics in the country. In the present study, the VP1 genomic region of FMD viral isolates belonging to serotype C from Sri Lanka and other South Asian countries were sequenced. All the published VPI sequences of serotype C and most of the published VP1 sequences for lineage ME-SA/Ind-2001d of serotype O from Sri Lanka, India, and other South Asian countries were retrieved. The datasets of serotype C and serotype O were separately analyzed using Bayesian, maximum likelihood, and phylogenetic networking methods to infer the transboundary movements and evolutionary aspects of the FMDV incursions in Sri Lanka. A model-based approach was used to detect any possible recombination events of FMDV incursions. Our results revealed that the invasions of the topotype ASIA of serotype C and the lineage ME-SA/Ind-2001d have a similar pattern of transboundary movement and evolution. The haplotype networks and phylogenies developed in the present study confirmed that FMDV incursions in Sri Lanka mainly originate from the Indian subcontinent, remain quiet after migration, and then cause outbreaks in a subsequent year. Since there are no recombination events detected among the different viral strains across serotypes and topotypes, we can assume that the incursions tend to show the independent evolution compared to the ancestral viral populations. Thus, we highlight the need for thorough surveillance of cattle/ruminants and associated product-movement into Sri Lanka from other regions to prevent the transboundary movement of FMDV.

The ESC ACCA EAPCI EORP acute coronary syndrome ST-elevation myocardial infarction registry

Aims 

The Acute Cardiac Care Association (ACCA)–European Association of Percutaneous Coronary Intervention (EAPCI) Registry on ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) of the EurObservational programme (EORP) of the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) registry aimed to determine the current state of the use of reperfusion therapy in ESC member and ESC affiliated countries and the adherence to ESC STEMI guidelines in patients with STEMI.

Methods and results 

Between 1 January 2015 and 31 March 2018, a total of 11 462 patients admitted with an initial diagnosis of STEMI according to the 2012 ESC STEMI guidelines were enrolled. Individual patient data were collected across 196 centres and 29 countries. Among the centres, there were 136 percutaneous coronary intervention centres and 91 with cardiac surgery on-site. The majority of centres (129/196) were part of a STEMI network. The main objective of this study was to describe the demographic, clinical, and angiographic characteristics of patients with STEMI. Other objectives include to assess management patterns and in particular the current use of reperfusion therapies and to evaluate how recommendations of most recent STEMI European guidelines regarding reperfusion therapies and adjunctive pharmacological and non-pharmacological treatments are adopted in clinical practice and how their application can impact on patients’ outcomes. Patients will be followed for 1 year after admission.

Conclusion 

The ESC ACCA-EAPCI EORP ACS STEMI registry is an international registry of care and outcomes of patients hospitalized with STEMI. It will provide insights into the contemporary patient profile, management patterns, and 1-year outcome of patients with STEMI.

Rapid bedside rejuvenation of red blood cell with an autologous cell salvage device

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

During storage, red blood cells (RBCs) undergo physicochemical changes which affect the quality, function, and in vivo survival of transfused packed RBCs (pRBC). Changes include decreased 2,3-diphosphoglycerate (2,3-DPG) levels, decreased ATP, changes in mechanical properties and oxidative injury. RBC rejuvenation is a method used to increase levels of 2,3-DPG and ATP in pRBCs. This process requires incubating the pRBCs with a rejuvenation solution and subsequent washing. Standard blood bank protocols using the COBE 2991 Cell Processor require several hours of preparation. The objective of this study was to verify if a bedside protocol for rejuvenating pRBC and washing with the Sorin Xtra autologous cell salvage system could be used.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Outdated pRBC units were obtained and rejuvenated in a model operating suite using a dry air incubator for 1 h at 37°C. Six units of pRBCs were pre-diluted with saline (1000 ml) and six units were not pre-diluted with saline. All units were washed with normal saline (1000 ml) using an apheresis-design cell salvage device in manual mode and wash volume set to 3000 ml. Samples were collected and analyzed for standard RBC quality parameters at baseline and post-wash.

RESULTS

Total pRBC wash efficiency was 94% ± 12% at a final hematocrit of 67.7 ± 5.9% while maintaining post-wash hemolysis 0.24 ± 0.12 %. Pre-dilution prior to washing did not confer statistically significant differences in final RBC quality parameters with the notable exceptions of calculated hemolysis and supernatant potassium levels (P < 0.05). The washing process can be completed within 10 min. The post-wash RBC parameters are appropriate for immediate transfusion to patients.

Meta-analysis of the procedural risks of carotid endarterectomy and carotid artery stenting over time

Background

Stroke/death rates within 30 days of carotid endarterectomy (CEA) and carotid artery stenting (CAS) in RCTs inform current clinical guidelines. However, the risks may have changed in recent years with wider use of effective stroke prevention therapies, especially statins, improved patient selection and growing operator expertise. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the procedural stroke/death risks from CEA and CAS have changed over time.

Methods

MEDLINE and Embase were searched systematically from inception to May 2016 for observational cohort studies of CEA and CAS. Studies included reported on more than 1000 patients, with 30‐day outcomes after the procedure according to patients' symptom status (recent stroke or transient ischaemic attack). Restricted maximum likelihood random‐effects and meta‐regressions methods were used to synthesize procedural stroke/death rates of CEA and CAS according to year of study recruitment completion.

Results

Fifty‐one studies, including 223 313 patients undergoing CEA and 72 961 undergoing CAS, were reviewed. Procedural stroke/death risks of CEA decreased over time in symptomatic and asymptomatic patients. Risks were substantially lower in studies completing recruitment in 2005 or later, both in symptomatic (5·11 per cent before 2005 versus 2·68 per cent from 2005 onwards; P = 0·002) and asymptomatic (3·17 versus 1·50 per cent; P < 0·001) patients. Procedural stroke/death rates of CAS did not change significantly over time (4·77 per cent among symptomatic and 2·59 per cent among asymptomatic patients). There was substantial heterogeneity in event rates and recruitment periods were long.

Conclusions

Risks of procedural stroke/death following CEA appear to have decreased substantially. There was no evidence of a change in stroke/death rates following CAS.

Endarterectomy outcomes improving

A novel, de novo mutation in the PRKAG2 gene: infantile-onset phenotype and the signaling pathway involved

PRKAG2 encodes the γ2-subunit isoform of 5'-AMP-activated protein kinase (AMPK), a heterotrimeric enzyme with major roles in the regulation of energy metabolism in response to cellular stress. Mutations in PRKAG2 have been implicated in a unique hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) characterized by cardiac glycogen overload, ventricular preexcitation, and hypertrophy. We identified a novel, de novo PRKAG2 mutation (K475E) in a neonate with prenatal onset of HCM. We aimed to investigate the cellular impact, signaling pathways involved, and therapeutic options for K475E mutation using cells stably expressing human wild-type (WT) or the K475E mutant. In human embryonic kidney-293 cells, the K475E mutation induced a marked increase in the basal phosphorylation of T172 and AMPK activity, reduced sensitivity to AMP in allosteric activation, and a loss of response to phenformin. In H9c2 cardiomyocytes, the K475E mutation induced inhibition of AMPK and reduced the response to phenformin and increases in the phosphorylation of p70S6 kinase (p70S6K) and eukaryotic translation initiation factor 4E-binding protein 1 (4E-BP1). Primary fibroblasts from the patient with the K475E mutation also showed marked increases in the phosphorylation of p70S6K and 4E-BP1 compared with those from age-matched, nondiseased controls. Moreover, overexpression of K475E induced hypertrophy in H9c2 cells, which was effectively reversed by treatment with rapamycin. Taken together, we have identified a novel, de novo infantile-onset PRKAG2 mutation causing HCM. Our study suggests the K475E mutation induces alteration in basal AMPK activity and results in a hypertrophy phenotype involving the mechanistic target of rapamycin signaling pathway, which can be reversed with rapamycin.NEW & NOTEWORTHY We identified a novel, de novo PRKAG2 mutation (K475E) in the cystathionine β-synthase 3 repeat, a region critical for AMP binding but with no previous reported mutation. Our data suggest the mutation affects AMP-activated protein kinase activity, activates cell growth pathways, and results in cardiac hypertrophy, which can be reversed with rapamycin.

A cluster randomized trial of strategies to increase uptake amongst young women invited for their first cervical screen: The STRATEGIC trial

Objectives

To measure the feasibility and effectiveness of interventions to increase cervical screening uptake amongst young women.

Methods

A two-phase cluster randomized trial conducted in general practices in the NHS Cervical Screening Programme. In Phase 1, women in practices randomized to intervention due for their first invitation to cervical screening received a pre-invitation leaflet and, separately, access to online booking. In Phase 2, non-attenders at six months were randomized to one of: vaginal self-sample kits sent unrequested or offered; timed appointments; nurse navigator; or the choice between nurse navigator or self-sample kits. Primary outcome was uplift in intervention vs. control practices, at 3 and 12 months post invitation.

Results

Phase 1 randomized 20,879 women. Neither pre-invitation leaflet nor online booking increased screening uptake by three months (18.8% pre-invitation leaflet vs. 19.2% control and 17.8% online booking vs. 17.2% control). Uptake was higher amongst human papillomavirus vaccinees at three months (OR 2.07, 95% CI 1.69–2.53, p < 0.001). Phase 2 randomized 10,126 non-attenders, with 32–34 clusters for each intervention and 100 clusters as controls. Sending self-sample kits increased uptake at 12 months (OR 1.51, 95% CI 1.20–1.91, p = 0.001), as did timed appointments (OR 1.41, 95% CI 1.14–1.74, p = 0.001). The offer of a nurse navigator, a self-sample kits on request, and choice between timed appointments and nurse navigator were ineffective.

Conclusions

Amongst non-attenders, self-sample kits sent and timed appointments achieved an uplift in screening over the short term; longer term impact is less certain. Prior human papillomavirus vaccination was associated with increased screening uptake.