Metabolic-associated fatty liver disease and hepatocellular carcinoma: a prospective study of characteristics and response to therapy

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The rising incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in Australia is related to increasing rates of metabolic-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD). This study aimed to prospectively characterize the metabolic profile, lifestyle, biometric features, and response to treatment of HCC patients in an Australian population.

METHOD

Multicenter prospective cohort analysis of newly diagnosed HCC patients at six multidisciplinary team meetings over a 2-year period.

RESULTS

Three hundred and thirteen (313) newly diagnosed HCC patients with MAFLD (n = 77), MAFLD plus other liver disease (n = 57) (the "mixed" group), and non-MAFLD (n = 179) were included in the study. Alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) (43%) and MAFLD (43%) were the most common underlying liver diseases. MAFLD-HCC patients were older (73 years vs 67 years vs 63 years), more likely to be female (40% vs 14% vs 20%), less likely to have cirrhosis (69% vs 88% vs 85%), showed higher ECOG, and were less likely to be identified by screening (29% vs 53% vs 45%). Metabolic syndrome was more prevalent in the MAFLD and mixed groups. The severity of underlying liver disease and HCC characteristics were the same across groups. While the MAFLD population self-reported more sedentary lifestyles, reported dietary patterns were no different across the groups. Dyslipidemia was associated with tumor size, and those taking statins had a lower recurrence rate.

CONCLUSION

Equal to ALD, MAFLD is now the most common underlying liver disease seen in HCC patients in Australia. Future HCC prevention screening and treatment strategies need to take this important group of patients into consideration.

Effects of empagliflozin on progression of chronic kidney disease: a prespecified secondary analysis from the empa-kidney trial

BACKGROUND

Sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors reduce progression of chronic kidney disease and the risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in a wide range of patients. However, their effects on kidney disease progression in some patients with chronic kidney disease are unclear because few clinical kidney outcomes occurred among such patients in the completed trials. In particular, some guidelines stratify their level of recommendation about who should be treated with SGLT2 inhibitors based on diabetes status and albuminuria. We aimed to assess the effects of empagliflozin on progression of chronic kidney disease both overall and among specific types of participants in the EMPA-KIDNEY trial.

METHODS

EMPA-KIDNEY, a randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial, was conducted at 241 centres in eight countries (Canada, China, Germany, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, the UK, and the USA), and included individuals aged 18 years or older with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 20 to less than 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2, or with an eGFR of 45 to less than 90 mL/min per 1·73 m2 with a urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (uACR) of 200 mg/g or higher. We explored the effects of 10 mg oral empagliflozin once daily versus placebo on the annualised rate of change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR slope), a tertiary outcome. We studied the acute slope (from randomisation to 2 months) and chronic slope (from 2 months onwards) separately, using shared parameter models to estimate the latter. Analyses were done in all randomly assigned participants by intention to treat. EMPA-KIDNEY is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03594110.

FINDINGS

Between May 15, 2019, and April 16, 2021, 6609 participants were randomly assigned and then followed up for a median of 2·0 years (IQR 1·5-2·4). Prespecified subgroups of eGFR included 2282 (34·5%) participants with an eGFR of less than 30 mL/min per 1·73 m2, 2928 (44·3%) with an eGFR of 30 to less than 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2, and 1399 (21·2%) with an eGFR 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2 or higher. Prespecified subgroups of uACR included 1328 (20·1%) with a uACR of less than 30 mg/g, 1864 (28·2%) with a uACR of 30 to 300 mg/g, and 3417 (51·7%) with a uACR of more than 300 mg/g. Overall, allocation to empagliflozin caused an acute 2·12 mL/min per 1·73 m2 (95% CI 1·83-2·41) reduction in eGFR, equivalent to a 6% (5-6) dip in the first 2 months. After this, it halved the chronic slope from -2·75 to -1·37 mL/min per 1·73 m2 per year (relative difference 50%, 95% CI 42-58). The absolute and relative benefits of empagliflozin on the magnitude of the chronic slope varied significantly depending on diabetes status and baseline levels of eGFR and uACR. In particular, the absolute difference in chronic slopes was lower in patients with lower baseline uACR, but because this group progressed more slowly than those with higher uACR, this translated to a larger relative difference in chronic slopes in this group (86% [36-136] reduction in the chronic slope among those with baseline uACR <30 mg/g compared with a 29% [19-38] reduction for those with baseline uACR ≥2000 mg/g; ptrend<0·0001).

INTERPRETATION

Empagliflozin slowed the rate of progression of chronic kidney disease among all types of participant in the EMPA-KIDNEY trial, including those with little albuminuria. Albuminuria alone should not be used to determine whether to treat with an SGLT2 inhibitor.

FUNDING

Boehringer Ingelheim and Eli Lilly.

Impact of primary kidney disease on the effects of empagliflozin in patients with chronic kidney disease: secondary analyses of the EMPA-KIDNEY trial

BACKGROUND

The EMPA-KIDNEY trial showed that empagliflozin reduced the risk of the primary composite outcome of kidney disease progression or cardiovascular death in patients with chronic kidney disease mainly through slowing progression. We aimed to assess how effects of empagliflozin might differ by primary kidney disease across its broad population.

METHODS

EMPA-KIDNEY, a randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial, was conducted at 241 centres in eight countries (Canada, China, Germany, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, the UK, and the USA). Patients were eligible if their estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was 20 to less than 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2, or 45 to less than 90 mL/min per 1·73 m2 with a urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (uACR) of 200 mg/g or higher at screening. They were randomly assigned (1:1) to 10 mg oral empagliflozin once daily or matching placebo. Effects on kidney disease progression (defined as a sustained ≥40% eGFR decline from randomisation, end-stage kidney disease, a sustained eGFR below 10 mL/min per 1·73 m2, or death from kidney failure) were assessed using prespecified Cox models, and eGFR slope analyses used shared parameter models. Subgroup comparisons were performed by including relevant interaction terms in models. EMPA-KIDNEY is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03594110.

FINDINGS

Between May 15, 2019, and April 16, 2021, 6609 participants were randomly assigned and followed up for a median of 2·0 years (IQR 1·5-2·4). Prespecified subgroupings by primary kidney disease included 2057 (31·1%) participants with diabetic kidney disease, 1669 (25·3%) with glomerular disease, 1445 (21·9%) with hypertensive or renovascular disease, and 1438 (21·8%) with other or unknown causes. Kidney disease progression occurred in 384 (11·6%) of 3304 patients in the empagliflozin group and 504 (15·2%) of 3305 patients in the placebo group (hazard ratio 0·71 [95% CI 0·62-0·81]), with no evidence that the relative effect size varied significantly by primary kidney disease (pheterogeneity=0·62). The between-group difference in chronic eGFR slopes (ie, from 2 months to final follow-up) was 1·37 mL/min per 1·73 m2 per year (95% CI 1·16-1·59), representing a 50% (42-58) reduction in the rate of chronic eGFR decline. This relative effect of empagliflozin on chronic eGFR slope was similar in analyses by different primary kidney diseases, including in explorations by type of glomerular disease and diabetes (p values for heterogeneity all >0·1).

INTERPRETATION

In a broad range of patients with chronic kidney disease at risk of progression, including a wide range of non-diabetic causes of chronic kidney disease, empagliflozin reduced risk of kidney disease progression. Relative effect sizes were broadly similar irrespective of the cause of primary kidney disease, suggesting that SGLT2 inhibitors should be part of a standard of care to minimise risk of kidney failure in chronic kidney disease.

FUNDING

Boehringer Ingelheim, Eli Lilly, and UK Medical Research Council.

Life expectancy associated with different ages at diagnosis of type 2 diabetes in high-income countries: 23 million person-years of observation

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of type 2 diabetes is increasing rapidly, particularly among younger age groups. Estimates suggest that people with diabetes die, on average, 6 years earlier than people without diabetes. We aimed to provide reliable estimates of the associations between age at diagnosis of diabetes and all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and reductions in life expectancy.

METHODS

For this observational study, we conducted a combined analysis of individual-participant data from 19 high-income countries using two large-scale data sources: the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (96 cohorts, median baseline years 1961-2007, median latest follow-up years 1980-2013) and the UK Biobank (median baseline year 2006, median latest follow-up year 2020). We calculated age-adjusted and sex-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause mortality according to age at diagnosis of diabetes using data from 1 515 718 participants, in whom deaths were recorded during 23·1 million person-years of follow-up. We estimated cumulative survival by applying age-specific HRs to age-specific death rates from 2015 for the USA and the EU.

FINDINGS

For participants with diabetes, we observed a linear dose-response association between earlier age at diagnosis and higher risk of all-cause mortality compared with participants without diabetes. HRs were 2·69 (95% CI 2·43-2·97) when diagnosed at 30-39 years, 2·26 (2·08-2·45) at 40-49 years, 1·84 (1·72-1·97) at 50-59 years, 1·57 (1·47-1·67) at 60-69 years, and 1·39 (1·29-1·51) at 70 years and older. HRs per decade of earlier diagnosis were similar for men and women. Using death rates from the USA, a 50-year-old individual with diabetes died on average 14 years earlier when diagnosed aged 30 years, 10 years earlier when diagnosed aged 40 years, or 6 years earlier when diagnosed aged 50 years than an individual without diabetes. Using EU death rates, the corresponding estimates were 13, 9, or 5 years earlier.

INTERPRETATION

Every decade of earlier diagnosis of diabetes was associated with about 3-4 years of lower life expectancy, highlighting the need to develop and implement interventions that prevent or delay the onset of diabetes and to intensify the treatment of risk factors among young adults diagnosed with diabetes.

FUNDING

British Heart Foundation, Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health and Care Research, and Health Data Research UK.

Patients' experiences of a suppoRted self-manAGeMent pAThway In breast Cancer (PRAGMATIC): quality of life and service use results

PURPOSE

To describe trends and explore factors associated with quality of life (QoL) and psychological morbidity and assess breast cancer (BC) health service use over a 12-month period for patients joining the supported self-management (SSM)/patient-initiated follow-up (PIFU) pathway.

METHODS

Participants completed questionnaires at baseline, 3, 6, 9 and 12 months that measured QoL (FACT-B, EQ 5D-5L), self-efficacy (GSE), psychological morbidity (GHQ-12), roles and responsibilities (PRRS) and service use (cost diary).

RESULTS

99/110 patients completed all timepoints; 32% (35/110) had received chemotherapy. The chemotherapy group had poorer QoL; FACT-B total score mean differences were 8.53 (95% CI: 3.42 to 13.64), 5.38 (95% CI: 0.17 to 10.58) and 8.00 (95% CI: 2.76 to 13.24) at 6, 9 and 12 months, respectively. The odds of psychological morbidity (GHQ12 >4) were 5.5-fold greater for those treated with chemotherapy. Financial and caring burdens (PRRS) were worse for this group (mean difference in change at 9 months 3.25 (95% CI: 0.42 to 6.07)). GSE and GHQ-12 scores impacted FACT-B total scores, indicating QoL decline for those with high baseline psychological morbidity. Chemotherapy patients or those with high psychological morbidity or were unable to carry out normal activities had the highest service costs. Over the 12 months, 68.2% participants phoned/emailed breast care nurses, and 53.3% visited a hospital breast clinician.

CONCLUSION

The data suggest that chemotherapy patients and/or those with heightened psychological morbidity might benefit from closer monitoring and/or supportive interventions whilst on the SSM/PIFU pathway. Reduced access due to COVID-19 could have affected service use.

Solid amorphous formulations for enhancing solubility and inhibiting Erlotinib crystallization during gastric-to-intestinal transfer

The objective of this study was to improve the solubility and inhibit the crystallisation during the gastric-to-intestinal transfer of Erlotinib (ERL), a small molecule kinase inhibitor (smKI) compound class, which is classified as class II drug in the Biopharmaceutical Classification System (BCS). A screening approach combining different parameters (solubility in aqueous media, inhibitory effect of drug crystallisation from supersaturated drug solutions) was applied to selected polymers for the development of solid amorphous dispersions of ERL. ERL solid amorphous dispersions formulations were then prepared with 3 different polymers (Soluplus®, HPMC-AS-L, HPMC-AS-H) at a fixed drug: polymer ratio (1:4) by two different production methods (spray drying and hot melt extrusion). The spray-dried particles and cryo-milled extrudates were characterized by thermal properties, shape and particle size, solubility and dissolution behavior in aqueous media. The influence of the manufacturing process on these solid characteristics was also identified during this study. Based on the obtained results, it is concluded that the cryo-milled extrudates of HPMC-AS-L displayed better performance (enhanced solubility, reduced ERL crystallization during the simulated gastric-to-intestinal transfer) and represents a promising amorphous solid dispersion formulation for oral administration of ERL.

Identifying neonatal intensive care (NICU) admissions using administrative claims data

BACKGROUND

To define a method for identifying neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) admissions using administrative claims data.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study using claims from Optum's de-identified Clinformatics® Data Mart Database (CDM) from 2016 -2020. We developed a definition to identify NICU admissions using a list of codes from the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-10-CM), Current Procedural Terminology (CPT), and revenue codes frequently associated with NICU admissions. We compared agreement between codes using Kappa statistics and calculated positive predictive values (PPV) and 95% confidence intervals (CI).

RESULTS

On average, revenue codes (3.3%) alone identified more NICU hospitalizations compared to CPT codes alone (1.5%), whereas the use of CPT and revenue (8.9%) and CPT or revenue codes (13.7%) captured the most NICU hospitalizations, which aligns with rates of preterm birth. Gestational age alone (4.2%) and birthweight codes alone (2.0%) identified the least number of potential NICU hospitalizations. Setting CPT codes as the standard and revenue codes as the "test,", revenue codes resulted in identifying 86% of NICU admissions (sensitivity) and 97% of non-NICU admissions (specificity).

CONCLUSIONS

Using administrative data, we developed a robust definition for identifying neonatal admissions. The identified definition of NICU codes is easily adaptable, repeatable, and flexible for use in other datasets.

Cohort profile: the ESC EURObservational Research Programme Non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infraction (NSTEMI) Registry

AIMS

The European Society of Cardiology (ESC) EURObservational Research Programme (EORP) Non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) Registry aims to identify international patterns in NSTEMI management in clinical practice and outcomes against the 2015 ESC Guidelines for the management of acute coronary syndromes in patients presenting without ST-segment-elevation.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Consecutively hospitalised adult NSTEMI patients (n = 3620) were enrolled between 11 March 2019 and 6 March 2021, and individual patient data prospectively collected at 287 centres in 59 participating countries during a two-week enrolment period per centre. The registry collected data relating to baseline characteristics, major outcomes (in-hospital death, acute heart failure, cardiogenic shock, bleeding, stroke/transient ischaemic attack, and 30-day mortality) and guideline-recommended NSTEMI care interventions: electrocardiogram pre- or in-hospital, pre-hospitalization receipt of aspirin, echocardiography, coronary angiography, referral to cardiac rehabilitation, smoking cessation advice, dietary advice, and prescription on discharge of aspirin, P2Y12 inhibition, angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEi)/angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB), beta-blocker, and statin.

CONCLUSION

The EORP NSTEMI Registry is an international, prospective registry of care and outcomes of patients treated for NSTEMI, which will provide unique insights into the contemporary management of hospitalised NSTEMI patients, compliance with ESC 2015 NSTEMI Guidelines, and identify potential barriers to optimal management of this common clinical presentation associated with significant morbidity and mortality.

Women’s experiences of accessing vaccines during pregnancy and for their babies during COVID-19

Background

COVID-19 changed access to healthcare, including vaccinations, in the United Kingdom (UK). This study explored UK women’s experiences of accessing pertussis vaccination during pregnancy and infant vaccinations during COVID-19.

Methods

An online cross-sectional survey was completed, between 3rd August-11th October 2020, by 1404 women aged 16+ years who were pregnant at some point after the first UK lockdown from March 23rd 2020. Ten follow-up semi-structured interviews were conducted.

Results

Most women surveyed were pregnant (65.7%) and a third postnatal (34.3%). Almost all women (95.6%) were aware that pertussis vaccination is recommended in pregnancy. Most pregnant (72.1%) and postnatal women (84.0%) had received pertussis vaccination however, access issues were reported. Over a third (39.6%) of women had a pregnancy vaccination appointment changed. COVID-19 made it physically difficult to access pregnancy vaccinations for one fifth (21.5%) of women and physically difficult to access infant vaccinations for almost half of women (45.8%). Nearly half of women (45.2%) reported feeling less safe attending pregnancy vaccinations and over three quarters (76.3%) less safe attending infant vaccinations due to COVID-19. The majority (94.2%) felt it was important to get their baby vaccinated during COVID-19. Pregnant women from ethnic-minorities and lower-income households were less likely to have been vaccinated. Minority-ethnicity women were more likely to report access problems and feeling less safe attending vaccinations for both themselves and their babies. Qualitative analysis found women experienced difficulties accessing antenatal care and relied on knowledge from previous pregnancies to access vaccine appointments.

Conclusions

COVID-19 disrupted access to vaccinations in the UK. Vaccine services must ensure equitable access to vaccine appointments during ongoing and future pandemics including tailoring services for lower income and ethnic minority families.

Key messages

• Pregnancy and infant vaccines was disrupted by COVID-19 with women feeling less safe and having difficulties accessing vaccinations with ethnic minority women more likely to report access issues.

• Equitable access to routine pregnancy and infant vaccine appointments must be prioritised during future pandemics, including considering tailoring services for different population groups.

Cross-Sectional Characteristics of Pediatric-Onset Discoid Lupus Erythematosus: Results of a Multicenter, Retrospective Cohort Study

• Discoid lupus may be associated with SLE. In this study, most children with discoid lupus did not have systemic disease. Concurrent SLE was highest in female adolescents (>10 years of age) with generalized discoid lupus, who had clinically aggressive disease. • Discoid lupus in adolescence should prompt thorough evaluation for SLE.

Forging Resilience to HIV/AIDS: Personal Strengths of Middle-aged and Older Gay, Bisexual, and Other Men Who Have Sex With Men Living With HIV/AIDS

HIV-positive gay, bisexual, two-spirit, and other men who have sex with men (MSM) have exhibited significant resilience to HIV/AIDS in Canada since the start of the epidemic. Since 2012, most of the research that has been conducted on resilience to HIV/AIDS has utilized quantitative methods and deficits-based approaches, with a preferential focus on the plight of young MSM. In order to address apparent gaps in research on HIV/AIDS resilience, we conducted a community-based participatory research qualitative study that utilized a strengths-based approach to examine the perspectives and lived experiences of HIV-positive, middle-aged and older MSM on their individual attributes that helped forge their HIV/AIDS resilience. We conducted 41 semistructured interviews with diverse, HIV-positive, middle-aged and older MSM from Central and Southwestern Ontario, Canada. From our thematic analysis of our interviews, we identified four themes, which represented personal strengths that fostered resilience to HIV/AIDS: (a) proactiveness, (b) perseverance, (c) having the right mindset, and (d) self-awareness with self-control. This article discusses the importance of these personal strengths to fostering HIV/AIDS resilience, and how community-based resources could potentially lessen the need to muster such personal strengths, or alternatively, cultivate them.

Decreased quality of life in people with psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis versus people with psoriasis alone: data from a national US survey

Psoriatic disease (PsD) is a chronic immune-meditated inflammatory condition affecting 8.3 million persons in the U.S. and 125 million globally.(1) Individuals with PsD experience high rates of co-morbidities, and an estimated 30-40% develop psoriatic arthritis (PsA).(2) Studies performed in clinical settings or with small sample sizes suggest that people with PsA experience decreased quality of life (QoL) and impaired physical function compared to people with psoriasis alone.

Multicentre Investigation of Prognostic Factors Incorporating p16 and Tumour Infiltrating Lymphocytes for Anal Cancer After Chemoradiotherapy

AIMS

Anal squamous cell carcinomas (ASCC) are strongly associated with human papillomaviruses. Standard of care is chemoradiotherapy at uniform doses with no treatment stratification. Immunohistochemical staining for p16INK4A (p16), a surrogate for human papillomaviruses, is prognostic for outcomes. We investigated this alongside clinical-pathological factors, including tumour infiltrating lymphocyte (TIL) scores.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Using an independent, multicentre cohort of 257 ASCC treated with chemoradiotherapy, pretreatment biopsies were stained and scored for p16 and TIL. Kaplan-Meier curves were derived for outcomes (disease-free survival [DFS], overall survival and cancer-specific survival), by stage, p16 and TIL scores and Log-rank tests were carried out to investigate prognostic effect. A multivariate analysis was carried out using Cox regression.

RESULTS

Stage, sex, p16 and TILs were independently prognostic. Hazard ratios for death (overall survival) were 2.51 (95% confidence interval 1.36-4.63) for p16 negative versus p16 positive, 2.17 (1.34-3.5) for T3/4 versus T1/2, 2.42 (1.52-3.8) for males versus females and 3.30 (1.52-7.14) for TIL1 versus TIL3 (all P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

We have refined prognostic factors in ASCC. p16 adds to stratification by stage with respect to DFS in early disease and overall survival/DFS in locally advanced cancers. Our data support the role of the host immune response in mediating outcomes. These factors will be prospectively evaluated in PLATO (ISRCTN88455282).

Transanal mesorectal excision: early outcomes in Australia and New Zealand

BACKGROUND

Transanal total mesorectal excision (taTME) aims to overcome some of the technical challenges faced when operating on mid and low rectal cancers. Specimen quality has been confirmed previously, but recent concerns have been raised about oncological safety. This multicentre prospective study aimed to evaluate the safety of taTME among early adopters in Australia and New Zealand.

METHODS

Data from all consecutive patients who had taTME for rectal cancer from July 2014 to February 2020 at six tertiary referral centres in Australasia were recorded and analysed.

RESULTS

A total of 308 patients of median age of 64 years underwent taTME. Some 75.6 per cent of patients were men, and the median BMI was 26.8 kg/m2. The median distance of tumour from anal verge was 7 cm. Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy was administered to 57.8 per cent of patients. The anastomotic leak rate was 8.1 per cent and there was no mortality within 30 days of surgery. Pathological examination found a complete mesorectum in 295 patients (95.8 per cent), a near-complete mesorectum in seven patients (2.3 per cent), and an incomplete mesorectum in six patients (1.9 per cent). The circumferential resection margin and distal resection margin was involved in nine patients (2.9 per cent), and two patients (0.6 per cent) respectively. Over a median follow-up of 22 months, the local recurrence rate was 1.9 per cent and median time to local recurrence was 30.5 months.

CONCLUSION

This study showed that, with appropriate training and supervision, skilled minimally invasive rectal cancer surgeons can perform taTME with similar pathological and oncological results to open and laparoscopic surgery.

Perioperative intravenous contrast administration and the incidence of acute kidney injury after major gastrointestinal surgery: prospective, multicentre cohort study

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to determine the impact of preoperative exposure to intravenous contrast for CT and the risk of developing postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery.

METHODS

This prospective, multicentre cohort study included adults undergoing gastrointestinal resection, stoma reversal or liver resection. Both elective and emergency procedures were included. Preoperative exposure to intravenous contrast was defined as exposure to contrast administered for the purposes of CT up to 7 days before surgery. The primary endpoint was the rate of AKI within 7 days. Propensity score-matched models were adjusted for patient, disease and operative variables. In a sensitivity analysis, a propensity score-matched model explored the association between preoperative exposure to contrast and AKI in the first 48 h after surgery.

RESULTS

A total of 5378 patients were included across 173 centres. Overall, 1249 patients (23·2 per cent) received intravenous contrast. The overall rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery was 13·4 per cent (718 of 5378). In the propensity score-matched model, preoperative exposure to contrast was not associated with AKI within 7 days (odds ratio (OR) 0·95, 95 per cent c.i. 0·73 to 1·21; P = 0·669). The sensitivity analysis showed no association between preoperative contrast administration and AKI within 48 h after operation (OR 1·09, 0·84 to 1·41; P = 0·498).

CONCLUSION

There was no association between preoperative intravenous contrast administered for CT up to 7 days before surgery and postoperative AKI. Risk of contrast-induced nephropathy should not be used as a reason to avoid contrast-enhanced CT.

Droplet digital PCR quantification suggests that higher viral load correlates with improved survival in HPV-positive oropharyngeal tumours

BACKGROUND

Although HPV-positive oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) patients have improved prognosis compared to HPV negative patients; there remains an HPV-positive group who have poor outcomes. Biomarkers to stratify discrete patient outcomes are thus desirable. Our objective was to analyse viral load (VL) by droplet digital PCR (ddPCR), in HPV-positive patients with OPC on whom clinical outcome data were available.

METHODS

In a cohort of patients that had previously tested HPV positive via conventional PCR, VL was determined using ddPCR assays for HPV16 L1 and E6 genes. VL was classed as "medium/high" if more than 5.57 copies or 8.68 copies of the HPV 16 L1 or E6 gene were detected respectively. Effect of VL on overall survival and hazard of death & disease progression was performed with adjustments made for sex, age, deprivation, smoking, alcohol consumption and stage.

RESULTS

L1 VL ranged from 0.0014-304 gene copies per cell with a mean of 30.9; comparatively E6 VL ranged from 0.0012-356 copies per cell with a mean of 37.9. Univariate analysis showed those with a medium/high VL had a lower hazard of death; this was significant for L1 (p = 0.02) but not for E6 (p = 0.67). The ratio of E6 to L1 deviated from n = 1 in most samples but had no influence on clinical outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

HPV viral load may be informative for the further stratification of clinical outcomes in HPV positive OPC patients.

Introduction of standardized, cumulative quantitative measurement of blood loss into routine maternity care

Introduction: Postpartum hemorrhage (PPH) is the leading cause of maternal morbidity in the UK. Visual estimation of blood loss is unreliable yet remains common practice. As part of a national quality improvement project to improve care during PPH, standardized, quantitative measurement of blood loss (QBL) for all deliveries was introduced into a tertiary obstetric unit in Cardiff, Wales.Methods: Retrospective analysis of 875 consecutive maternities between December 2017 and February 2018 was undertaken. Of these, 372 mothers had both pre- and post-partum hemoglobin (Hb) were recorded. Regression analyses were performed to investigate the relationship between change in Hb adjusted for red cell transfusion and QBL.Results: The correlation coefficient between QBL and adjusted change in Hb for all deliveries (n = 372) was 0.57. This corresponded to an estimated fall of adjusted change in Hb of 15.3 g/L (95% CI: 13.1, 17.6) per 1000 mL blood loss.Discussion: QBL has been shown to be reliable across all maternity settings, with reproducible results in theater and delivery rooms (on the obstetric unit and alongside midwifery-led unit). QBL is moderately correlated with adjusted change in Hb for all volumes of bleeding and gives clinicians more accurate knowledge of blood loss than visual estimation. This low-cost, low-fidelity intervention can influence the timely escalation of clinical care and therefore patient outcome.

Correction to: Pelvic fat volume reduction with preoperative very low energy diet (VLED): implications for rectal cancer surgery in the obese

Due to substantial contributions by Dr. Phillip Malouf and Dr. Stephen Bell.

Pelvic fat volume reduction with preoperative very low energy diet (VLED): implications for rectal cancer surgery in the obese

BACKGROUND

Obese patients have higher complication rates after pelvic surgery. Laparoscopic rectal surgery may not be possible in the obese individual due to mesorectal, total pelvic and general visceral fat volumes. Very low energy diets reduce visceral fat but the changes within the pelvis and mesorectum are unknown. The aim of the present study was to quantify the proportion of fat lost from total pelvic and mesorectal fat with a very low energy diet (VLED) and define simple, accessible measurements that correlate with expected volume reduction.

METHODS

A study was conducted on proportion change in mesorectal and intrapelvic fat volumes in patients on a VLED prior to bariatric surgery at the Alfred Hospital in Melbourne. The VLED was a standardized 4-week meal replacement. Proportion change in mesorectal and intrapelvic fat volumes were measured. Patients had standardized pre-diet and post-diet magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of the pelvis. Body mass index, weight and girth measures were obtained. Adipose quantification analysis was performed using Q-Fat.

RESULTS

Nine patients were included in this study, who were preparing for bariatric (not colorectal) surgery (5 females, median age 42 years, range 27-59 years) pre-protocol body mass index was 55.8 (range 39.5-60.6 kg/m²); median weight was 163 kg. Median mesorectal fat reduction was 29.9% (range 11.6-66.6%). Linear regression showed a relationship between the amount of mesorectal fat reduction and two variables: patient height and the distance from S1 to the posterior aspect of the rectum on MRI. The relationship predicted response to the diet (R² 67%, p = 0.040).

CONCLUSIONS

Very low energy diets result in a clinically significant reduction in mesorectal fat with a lesser change in total pelvic fat, suggesting that very low energy diets may be useful for preparation for pelvic surgery in the obese. The distance from S1 to the posterior rectum correlates well with mesorectal reduction, making this a valuable clinical tool when volumetric analysis is not possible. This analysis is limited to the quantification of the effect of the diet and cannot comment on the safety of this approach before pelvic cancer surgery.

Identical and Nonidentical Twins: Risk and Factors Involved in Development of Islet Autoimmunity and Type 1 Diabetes

OBJECTIVE

There are variable reports of risk of concordance for progression to islet autoantibodies and type 1 diabetes in identical twins after one twin is diagnosed. We examined development of positive autoantibodies and type 1 diabetes and the effects of genetic factors and common environment on autoantibody positivity in identical twins, nonidentical twins, and full siblings.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Subjects from the TrialNet Pathway to Prevention Study (N = 48,026) were screened from 2004 to 2015 for islet autoantibodies (GAD antibody [GADA], insulinoma-associated antigen 2 [IA-2A], and autoantibodies against insulin [IAA]). Of these subjects, 17,226 (157 identical twins, 283 nonidentical twins, and 16,786 full siblings) were followed for autoantibody positivity or type 1 diabetes for a median of 2.1 years.

RESULTS

At screening, identical twins were more likely to have positive GADA, IA-2A, and IAA than nonidentical twins or full siblings (all P < 0.0001). Younger age, male sex, and genetic factors were significant factors for expression of IA-2A, IAA, one or more positive autoantibodies, and two or more positive autoantibodies (all P ≤ 0.03). Initially autoantibody-positive identical twins had a 69% risk of diabetes by 3 years compared with 1.5% for initially autoantibody-negative identical twins. In nonidentical twins, type 1 diabetes risk by 3 years was 72% for initially multiple autoantibody-positive, 13% for single autoantibody-positive, and 0% for initially autoantibody-negative nonidentical twins. Full siblings had a 3-year type 1 diabetes risk of 47% for multiple autoantibody-positive, 12% for single autoantibody-positive, and 0.5% for initially autoantibody-negative subjects.

CONCLUSIONS

Risk of type 1 diabetes at 3 years is high for initially multiple and single autoantibody-positive identical twins and multiple autoantibody-positive nonidentical twins. Genetic predisposition, age, and male sex are significant risk factors for development of positive autoantibodies in twins.

Increasing body mass index and abdominal subcutaneous fat thickness are associated with increased skin-to-epidural space distance in pregnant women

BACKGROUND

Body mass index does not indicate the distribution of adipose tissue. Central adiposity may be measured using ultrasound measurement of subcutaneous fat thickness. This study determined if the abdominal subcutaneous fat thickness measured correlated with skin-to-epidural space distance at delivery, and compared this with the booking body mass index.

METHODS

We analysed a sub-set of participants from a single-centre, prospective cohort study that assessed the relationship between subcutaneous fat thickness and maternity outcomes. Abdominal subcutaneous fat thickness measurements were obtained during the routine fetal anomaly scan. The skin-to-epidural space distance was obtained in those having epidural or combined spinal-epidural analgesia. Linear regression was used to test for strength of association and adjusted R² values calculated to determine if subcutaneous fat thickness or body mass index was more strongly associated with skin-to-epidural space distance.

RESULTS

The 463 women had a median (IQR) booking body mass index of 25.0 kg/m² (21.8-29.3) and subcutaneous fat thickness of 16.2 mm (13.0-21.0). The median (IQR) skin-to-epidural space distance was 5.0 cm (4.5-6.0). Both parameters significantly correlated with skin-to-epidural space distance (r=0.53 and 0.68 respectively, P <0.001). Adjusted linear regression coefficient (95% CI) for subcutaneous fat thickness was 0.09 (0.08 to 0.11), R²=0.30 and for body mass index 0.12 (0.11 to 0.13), R²=0.47.

CONCLUSIONS

Booking body mass index had a stronger relationship with skin-to- epidural space distance at delivery than subcutaneous fat thickness, explaining 47% of the variation in the skin-to-epidural distance.