Social needs screening in primary care: A tool in the fight for health equity?

Progress on addressing health inequalities is slow and in many places around the world the gap between the privileged and the disadvantaged is widening. This is driven largely by an unfair and unequal distribution of the social determinants of health. While upstream policy and agenda commitment is needed to improve social determinants of health at a population level, healthcare also has a role. Currently social information is sporadically collected and used in healthcare. Improving our understanding of social problems is crucial in targeting services and to reduce the overreliance on area-level measures of deprivation. This has the potential to improve patient care as well as more accurately capture socio-economic disadvantage. Here we argue that there is a role for primary care in screening for social needs to help address inequalities. Social needs screening, more commonly used in North America than Europe, aims to systematically collect social information in health and care settings. Healthcare professionals ask patients about social issues including employment, finances, housing, education and social isolation and this information is used to prompt referral to community services to address any need identified. Social needs screening has potential to address negative impacts of social determinants of health at an individual and population level. Providing a reliable measure of social need, screening gives healthcare professionals an opportunity to tailor and improve quality of care for patients and offer individualised support. It has been shown to improve individual social and health outcomes and positively impact healthcare utilisation. At a population level, social needs screening can improve the data on social determinants of health and therefore support policy makers and service delivery leaders to target resources and services more effectively to the communities most in need. Implementing social needs screening must take account of local healthcare service capacity and available community resources but where sustainable, effective programmes can be introduced, the potential benefits are manifold. While primary care alone cannot solve the root causes of health inequalities, we argue it could be a powerful actor in the fight for health equity.

From neighborhood to household: connections between neighborhood vacant and abandoned property and family violence

Rates of family violence, including intimate partner violence (IPV) and child maltreatment, remain high in the U.S. and contribute to substantial health and economic costs. How neighborhood environment may influence family violence remains poorly understood. We examine the association between neighborhood vacant and abandoned properties and family violence, and the role collective efficacy may play in that relationship. Data were used from a longitudinal cohort of 218 maternal-child dyads in a southern U.S. city known for elevated rates of violence. Women were matched on their propensity score, for living in a neighborhood with elevated vacant and cited properties. Analyses accounting for clustering in neighborhood and matched groups were conducted to examine the association between neighborhood vacant and abandoned property and family violence, and the potential mediating relationship of collective efficacy. The likelihood of experiencing child maltreatment at 12-months of age was more than twice as high for children living in neighborhoods with a high vacant and cited property rates compared to women living in neighborhoods with fewer vacant and cited properties (OR=2.11, 95% CI=1.03, 4.31). Women living in neighborhoods characterized by high levels of vacant and cited properties were also more than twice as likely to report IPV (OR=2.52, 95% CI=1.21, 5.25). Associations remained mostly stable after controlling for key covariates. Collective efficacy did not act as a mediator in the relationship between vacant and cited properties and family violence. Reducing neighborhood vacant and cited properties may be an important target for interventions focused on reducing family violence.

Prognostic Value of Weekly Delta-Radiomics during MR-Linac Radiotherapy of Glioblastoma

PURPOSE/OBJECTIVE(S)

MRI after chemoradiotherapy (chemoRT) shows areas of presumed tumor growth in ≤ 50% of glioblastoma (GBM) patients, which can be true progression (TP) - tumor growth with poor treatment response, or pseudoprogression (PP) - edema and tumor necrosis with favorable treatment response. Patients with TP have median overall survival (OS) of only 7 months, while patients with PP have median OS of 36 months. However, on imaging, TP and PP are usually not discernible during treatment, making it difficult to adapt radiation for poor responders. The purpose of this study was to investigate the prognostic value of delta radiomic features from MR-Linac for GBM.

MATERIALS/METHODS

Using an IRB-approved prospective cohort of GBM patients undergoing 30 fractions of chemoRT to 60 Gy on a 0.35T MR-Linac, 2 regions of interest (ROI) were contoured on daily T2-weighted treatment set-up scans: 1) tumor/edema (lesion) and 2) post-surgical resection cavity (RC). The lesion ROI were used to calculate texture features: second order radiomics features based on the gray-level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM), gray-level size zone matrix (GLSZM), gray-level run length matrix (GLRLM), and neighborhood gray-tone difference matrix (NGTDM). Each of these describe the probability of spatial relationships of gray levels occurring within the ROI. Features from fraction 1 (pre-radiation) were subtracted from fractions 5, 10, 15, 25, and 30 to create delta features at 5 timepoints (D5-D30). Patient response was retrospectively defined as no progression (NP), TP, or PP. Supervised machine learning was utilized using a 500-tree random forest (RF) classification model with TP or PP as the outcome. Variable importance analysis was conducted by calculating the out-of-bag errors with multiple bootstrapped data sets. The most prognostic features were selected using the RF importance scores.

RESULTS

Thirty-six patients were screened for inclusion: 9 were excluded due to no T2 lesion (RC ROI only). Of the remaining 27 patients: 10 had NP, 11 had TP, and 6 had PP. Thirty-nine texture features, plus lesion volume and mean lesion intensity (for a total of 41 variables per time point) were calculated and included in the model. Of the 10 most prognostic features, 6 were from D10, suggesting that prognostic changes in the underlying lesion microenvironment are occurring within the first 10 fractions of treatment. The model selected GLSZM high gray-level zone emphasis (HGZE) D10, IBSI code 5GN9, as the most prognostic feature. The receiver operator characteristic (ROC) area under the curve (AUC) for GLSZM HGZE D10 was 0.94 (95% CI = 0.81-1.00).

CONCLUSION

Delta radiomic features extracted from MR-Linac imaging may predict between PP and TP in GBM patients during treatment, which is earlier than current methods. This could allow physicians to adapt/intensify treatment in real time for poorly responding patients. Future directions include analysis with a larger patient cohort and with additional MRI contrasts (MR-Linac multiparametric MRI).

Evaluation of the national governmental efforts between 1997 and 2010 in reducing health inequalities in England

OBJECTIVES

The pandemic has compounded existing inequalities. In the UK, there have been calls for a new cross-government health inequalities strategy. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of national governmental efforts between 1997 and 2010, referred to as the National Health Inequalities Strategy (NHIS).

STUDY DESIGN

population-based observational study.

METHODS

Using Global Burden of Disease data, age-standardised years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLL) rates per 10,000 were extracted for 150 Upper Tier Local Authority (UTLA) regions in England for every year between 1990 and 2019. The slope index of inequality was calculated using YLL rates for all causes, individual conditions, and risk factors. Joinpoint regression was used to assess the trends of any changes which arose before, during or after the NHIS.

RESULTS

Absolute inequalities in YLL rates for all causes remained stable between 1990 and 2000, before decreasing over the following 10 years. After 2010, improvements slowed. A similar trend can be observed amongst inequalities in YLLs for individual causes, including ischaemic heart disease, stroke, breast cancer and lung cancer amongst females, and ischaemic heart disease stroke, diabetes and self-harm amongst males. This trend was also observed amongst certain risk factors, notably blood pressure, cholesterol, tobacco and dietary risks. Inequalities were generally greater in males than in females; however, trends were similar across both sexes. The NHIS coincided with significant reductions in inequalities in YLLs due to ischaemic heart disease and lung cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings suggest that the NHIS coincided with a reduction in health inequalities in England. Policy makers should consider a new cross-government strategy to tackle health inequalities drawing from the success of the previous NHIS.

Clinical Evaluation of Scout Accelerated Motion Estimation and Reduction Technique for 3D MR Imaging in the Inpatient and Emergency Department Settings

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

A scout accelerated motion estimation and reduction (SAMER) framework has been developed for efficient retrospective motion correction. The goal of this study was to perform an initial evaluation of SAMER in a series of clinical brain MR imaging examinations.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Ninety-seven patients who underwent MR imaging in the inpatient and emergency department settings were included in the study. SAMER motion correction was retrospectively applied to an accelerated T1-weighted MPRAGE sequence that was included in brain MR imaging examinations performed with and without contrast. Two blinded neuroradiologists graded images with and without SAMER motion correction on a 5-tier motion severity scale (none = 1, minimal = 2, mild = 3, moderate = 4, severe = 5).

RESULTS

The median SAMER reconstruction time was 1 minute 47 seconds. SAMER motion correction significantly improved overall motion grades across all examinations (P < .005). Motion artifacts were reduced in 28% of cases, unchanged in 64% of cases, and increased in 8% of cases. SAMER improved motion grades in 100% of moderate motion cases and 75% of severe motion cases. Sixty-nine percent of nondiagnostic motion cases (grades 4 and 5) were considered diagnostic after SAMER motion correction. For cases with minimal or no motion, SAMER had negligible impact on the overall motion grade. For cases with mild, moderate, and severe motion, SAMER improved the motion grade by an average of 0.3 (SD, 0.5), 1.1 (SD, 0.3), and 1.1 (SD, 0.8) grades, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

SAMER improved the diagnostic image quality of clinical brain MR imaging examinations with motion artifacts. The improvement was most pronounced for cases with moderate or severe motion.

1215 IMPROVING THE QUALITY OF ANTICIPATORY CARE PLANNING FOR PATIENTS WITH RECURRENT ASPIRATION PNEUMONIA

Introduction

Recurrent episodes of aspiration pneumonia (RAP) are a significant problem in frail patients leading to high re-hospitalization and mortality. Anticipatory care planning (ACP) enables improved quality of life and end of life care. We reviewed the assessment, ACP discussions and communication with Primary Care in these patients.

Methods

We used a PDSA methodology, reviewing 116 patients with RAP referred to Speech and Language Therapy (SLT) in Elderly Medicine wards over six months, including the winter. Educational interventions were implemented. An illustrative case and pre-intervention results were presented at an online hospital-wide seminar and subsequently at an online departmental medical staff teaching session. Post-intervention analysis of 10 patients with RAP admitted over two summer months was conducted. The second round of interventions included departmental induction teaching for newly rotated doctors and creating an electronic ACP document (RAP ACP) for inclusion within the medical record.

Results

Baseline data was collected from 116 patients (mean age 85, 47% female). After the educational interventions, data was collected from 10 patients (mean age 88, 70% female). Data is being collected from winter months after the second intervention. This will be available before the conference. Baseline data demonstrated the need for improvements in documentation of Mental Capacity Assessment (MCA) specific to feeding (21.5%), ACP completion (26.7%) and flagging patients suitable for the Gold Standards Framework (GSF) on discharge (15%). Following educational interventions, there was a substantial improvement in MCA documentation (80%). Furthermore, there was a marked improvement in the completion of ACP discussions (70%). Communication of patients eligible for GSF was similar (14.2%) post-intervention.

Conclusions

Educational interventions substantially improved the quality of individualised care provided to patients with RAP. Mortality was high in both groups, yet documentation of eligibility for GSF was low, prompting further interventions targeting discharge communication.

Reducing health inequalities through general practice in the UK: a realist review (EQUALISE)

Background

In the UK, chronic conditions such as cancer, heart disease, stroke, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease are driving health inequalities in life expectancy and were responsible for two-thirds of premature mortality in 2017. Voices that stress the importance of primary care in reducing health inequalities have been strengthening during the last decade. However, defining the most effective strategies to reduce health inequalities through general practice remains a challenge.

Aims

This study examines the evidence on interventions in primary care that are likely to decrease inequalities in NCDs and especially cancer, diabetes, cardiovascular and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and will provide healthcare organisations with guiding principles on what should be commissioned.

Methods

The study is a realist review following Pawson's model. Based on a programme theory, we screened systematic reviews of interventions delivered in primary care and through their references, we identified primary studies reporting on inequalities across PROGRESS-Plus criteria. The data were analysed in light of the initial program theory and organised in a model informed by Collins’ Domains of Power framework.

Results

Out of 251 included reviews we retrieved 6,555 primary studies which resulted in 333 studies for data extraction. We found that there are five guiding principles operating simultaneously across four different domains which can reduce health inequalities in General Practice. The principles include flexibility, continuity, inclusivity, intersectionality, and community and operate simultaneously across the domains of structures and policies; narratives and ideas; rules and practices; and relationships and experience.

Conclusions

Flexibility, continuity, inclusivity, intersectionality, and community are the five principles which should guide the design and delivery of General Practice for the reduction of health inequalities.

Key messages

• Flexibility, continuity, inclusivity, intersectionality, and community are the five principles which should guide the design and delivery of General Practice for the reduction of health inequalities.

• Action to reduce health inequalities should be taken simultaneously across the domains of structures and policies; narratives and ideas; rules and practices; and relationships and experience.

Changing life expectancy in Europe 1990-2019: Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

 

Improvements in life expectancy have slowed in high income countries, with uncertain causes. We assessed the contribution of different causes of death to changes in life expectancy, and changes in population exposure to major risk factors in 16 European Economic Area countries plus the 4 nations of the United Kingdom from 1990-2013 and 2013-2019, using the Global Burden of Disease Study. After decades of steady improvements in life expectancy, all countries experienced smaller annual improvements after 2013. Norway experienced the smallest mean annual rate of change in improvement from pre 2013 to post 2013 of 0.03 years, and Northern Ireland (followed closely by Scotland and England) experienced the largest annual reduction from pre to post 2013 of 0.25 years. The cause of death responsible for the largest reductions in life expectancy improvements after 2013 was cardiovascular disease, followed by neoplasms. The largest reductions in deaths from cardiovascular disease were attributable to seven major risk factors: high LDL cholesterol, tobacco, dietary risks, high fasting plasma glucose, high systolic blood pressure, high body mass index, and low physical activity. The risk factors for deaths from neoplasm were similar. Exposure to tobacco remains a high risk but exposure declined steadily. Exposure to the other risks generally worsened after 2013, particularly for BMI and high fasting plasma glucose. The European countries that had better maintained reductions in deaths from cardiovascular disease and neoplasms also experienced larger improvements in life expectancy. These changes were underpinned by changing exposure to major risks. Policy responses to the slowdown in life expectancy improvements should include reducing population exposure to major risks, including the broader risks from diet and low physical activity, through prevention and addressing the broad social and commercial determinants of health as well as adequate funding for health services.

Key messages

At a Glance: An Update on Neuroimaging and Retinal Imaging in Alzheimer's Disease and Related Research

Neuroimaging serves a variety of purposes in Alzheimer's disease (AD) and related dementias (ADRD) research - from measuring microscale neural activity at the subcellular level, to broad topological patterns seen across macroscale-brain networks, and everything in between. In vivo imaging provides insight into the brain's structure, function, and molecular architecture across numerous scales of resolution; allowing examination of the morphological, functional, and pathological changes that occurs in patients across different AD stages (1). AD is a complex and potentially heterogenous disease, with no proven cure and no single risk factor to isolate and measure, whilst known risk factors do not fully account for the risk of developing this disease (2). Since the 1990's, technological advancements in neuroimaging have allowed us to visualise the wide organisational structure of the brain (3) and later developments led to capturing information of brain 'functionality', as well as the visualisation and measurement of the aggregation and accumulation of AD-related pathology. Thus, in vivo brain imaging has and will continue to be an instrumental tool in clinical research, mainly in the pre-clinical disease stages, aimed at elucidating the biological complex processes and interactions underpinning the onset and progression of cognitive decline and dementia. The growing societal burden of AD/ADRD means that there has never been a greater need, nor a better time, to use such powerful and sensitive tools to aid our understanding of this undoubtedly complex disease. It is by consolidating and reflecting on these imaging advancements and developing long-term strategies across different disciplines, that we can move closer to our goal of dementia prevention. This short commentary will outline recent developments in neuroimaging in the field of AD and dementia by first describing the historical context of AD classification and the introduction of AD imaging biomarkers, followed by some examples of significant recent developments in neuroimaging methods and technologies.

P–106 The evaluation of dietary score representing the overall effect of men’s diet to semen quality on couple’s fertility

Study question

Is men’s diet associated with assisted reproductive technology (ART) outcomes?

Summary answer

An empirical dietary score representing the overall effect of men’s diet on semen quality was unrelated to ART outcomes.

What is known already

Multiple studies have related various aspects of men’s diet to semen quality. Generally, healthier foods, such as fish, vegetables, and fruits, have been related to better semen quality, whereas unhealthy foods, like processed and red meats, have had the opposite relationship. Nevertheless, while bulk semen parameters are important biomarkers of male fertility and a diagnostic cornerstone for male factor infertility, they are imperfect predictors of a couple’s fertility.

Study design, size, duration

Couples presenting to the Massachusetts General Hospital Fertility Center between April 2007 and April 2018 were invited to participate in the Environment and Reproductive Health (EARTH) study, a prospective cohort study. Men’s diet was assessed with a previously validated food frequency questionnaire. A dietary score reflecting the overall relation of men’s food intake with semen quality parameters was empirically derived using reduced rank regression (RRR). The resulting dietary score was related to ART outcomes.

Participants/materials, setting, methods

We used information from 349 men (908 semen samples) to derive the empirical diet pattern and data from 231 couples (407 ART cycles). The primary outcome was the probability of live birth per treatment cycle; secondary outcomes were semen quality, and fertilization, implantation, and clinical pregnancy rates. We evaluated the association between the dietary score and these outcomes using logistic generalized linear mixed models to account for repeated cycles while adjusting for confounders.

Main results and the role of chance

Men had a median baseline age and BMI of 36.8 years and 26.9 kg/m2, respectively. The empirical diet pattern was significantly associated with all semen parameters. One standard deviation increase in the empirical diet pattern was associated with lower volume (–0.10 standard units [95% CI: –0.17 to –0.04]) and to higher sperm total sperm count (0.13 standard units [0.06 to 0.20]), concentration (0.17 standard units [0.10 to 0.24]), total motility (0.14 standard units [0.07 to 0.20]), progressive motility (0.08 standard units [0.01 to 0.15]), and normal morphology (0.18 standard units [0.11 to 0.25]). Couples with men in the lowest quartile of the empirical score were more likely to have a diagnosis of male infertility than couples with men in the highest quartile (49% vs 24%). Despite the association with semen parameters, the empirical diet score was not related to any clinical outcome of infertility treatment with ART. The adjusted probabilities of implantation, clinical pregnancy and live birth in the lowest and highest quartile of the empirical score were 0.62 (0.50–0.73) and 0.55 (0.45–0.66), 0.57 (0.46–0.69) and 0.50 (0.40–0.61), and 0.49 (0.37–0.62) and 0.36 (0.25–0.48), respectively. Analyses excluding couples with a diagnosis of male factor infertility yielded similar results.

Limitations, reasons for caution

We evaluated the relationship only among couples presenting to a fertility center and therefore it is unclear whether findings can be generalized to couples trying to conceive without ART.

Wider implications of the findings: Given ART is a robust intervention including stringent sperm selection procedures, any effect that empirical diet may have on a couple’s chances of conceiving through assisted reproduction is unlikely to reflect the effect of these factors on bulk semen quality parameters.

Trial registration number

The project was funded by ES009718, ES022955, ES026648, and ES000002 from the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, and P30DK46200 from the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases

P–716 The relationship of men’s adherence to the Mediterranean diet with sperm parameters and outcomes of assisted reproductive technologies

Study question

Is men’s adherence to the Mediterranean diet (MD) associated with sperm parameters and couples’ outcomes of assisted reproductive technologies (ART)?

Summary answer

Higher men’s adherence to the MD was associated with an increased probability of clinical pregnancy and live birth among couples undergoing ART.

What is known already

There is growing literature supporting the hypothesis that some nutrients, foods, and dietary patterns may be related to sperm quality and fertility. However, no previous studies analyzed the relationship of men’s adherence to the Mediterranean diet with sperm parameters and ART outcomes in the same cohort.

Study design, size, duration

The Environmental and Reproductive Health (EARTH) Study is a prospective preconception cohort of couples seeking fertility treatment at the Massachusetts General Hospital Fertility Center (Boston, USA). This analysis includes 314 men and their female partner, who underwent 791 ART cycles (2007–2020). Diet intake was measured by a validated semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire completed prior to ART. Men’s adherence to the MD was estimated using the Trichopoulou score.

Participants/materials, setting, methods

Primary outcomes included: conventional sperm parameters (volume, sperm count, concentration, motility, and morphology), and ART outcomes (implantation, clinical pregnancy, and live birth). We estimated the marginal means and 95% confidence interval (95%CI) for semen parameters and the probability of ART (95%CI) by employing generalized linear mixed models while adjusting for several potential confounders. Sensitivity analyses by changing the cut-off points of adherence to the MD were tested.

Main results and the role of chance

At baseline, men had a median (IQR) age of 35.6 (32.6, 38.8) years and a BMI of 26.7 (24.0, 29.4) kg/m2. Female partner age median (IQR) was 35.0 years (32.0, 38.0) and BMI 23.3 (21.3, 26.6) kg/m2. Couples were mostly white and had never smoked. Men’s adherence to the MD was not associated with seminal parameters in the multivariable-adjusted models but it was related to a higher probability of clinical pregnancy and live birth. The predicted marginal proportions and confidence intervals among men in the lowest compared with the highest quartile of adherence to the MD were 0.25 (0.14, 0.40), 0.55 (0.41, 0.68) for clinical pregnancy (P-trend=0.005), and 0.19 (0.10, 0.32), 0.42 (0.30, 0.55) for live birth (P-trend=0.014). Male partner MD dietary pattern scores were unrelated to the probability of implantation. Sensitivity analyses using tertiles and quintiles of men’s adherence to the MD showed similar associations.

Limitations, reasons for caution

Although we have adjusted our models by several potential confounding factors, residual confounding cannot be ruled out, and therefore our results should be interpreted with caution. The findings may not be generalizable to other populations or couples attempting conception without ART.

Wider implications of the findings: According to our knowledge, this is the first study suggesting that adherence to MD could be suitable dietary guidance for men whose partners are undergoing infertility treatment.

Trial registration number

Not applicable

Using Interpreter-Tutors in School Programs for Students who are Deaf-Blind

This article presents a model for providing the necessary educational support to children who are deaf-blind in public schools. The model relies on the services of a new paraprofessional—the interpreter-tutor.

53 Does the Community Geriatrician’s Role in Advanced Care Planning Help Community Dwellers Achieve Their Preferred Place of Care?

Introduction

Advanced Care Planning (ACP) is well established for patients with terminal cancer diagnoses but is poorly utilised when caring for elderly patients with other terminal illnesses. We aimed to assess the effectiveness of ACP in our older, community dwellers following a period of increased awareness.

Methods

A closed loop audit was undertaken, assessing deaths from a dementia care home within rural Norfolk, before and after implementation of an education and focus programme (cycle 1=Jan 2017-Jan 2018, cycle 2: Feb 2018-Jan-2019). Deceased patients were identified from care home records and data from electronic hospital and general practice records were analysed. Results were compared according to existing guidance outlined in the Palliative Gold Standards Framework (GSF) and Department of Health End of Life Care Strategy 2009. Compliance between cycles was compared using the chi-square test with p=.05 indicative of statistical significance.

Results

59 patients were included (median age=84, male=31). Results of the audit for each criterion are shown in table 1. More patients achieved their preferred place of care (PPOC) following the implementation of the education programme, with access to end of life medications significantly improving.

Conclusions

Increasing awareness and understanding of ACP in the community has been shown to improve compliance with GSF standards, particularly access to end of life medications. Further efforts are still required to improve care and a third cycle is scheduled for January 2020, following further training.

Impact of contouring variability on oncological PET radiomics features in the lung

Radiomics features extracted from oncological PET images are currently under intense scrutiny within the context of risk stratification for a variety of cancers. However, the lack of robustness assessment poses problems for their application across institutions and for broader patient populations. The objective of the current study was to examine the extent to which radiomics parameters from oncological PET vary in response to manual contouring variability in lung cancer. Imaging data employed in the study consisted of 26 PET scans with lesions in the lung being created through the use of an anthropomorphic phantom in conjunction with Monte Carlo simulations. From each of the simulated lesions, 25 radiomics features related to the gray-level co-occurrence matrices (GLCOM), gray-level size zone matrices (GLSZM), and gray-level neighborhood difference matrices (GLNDM) were extracted from ground truth contour and from manual contours provided by 10 raters in regard to four intensity discretization schemes with number of gray levels of 32, 64, 128, and 256, respectively. The impact of interrater variability in tumor delineation upon the agreement between raters on radiomics features was examined via interclass correlation and leave-p-out assessment. Only weak and moderate correlations were found between segmentation accuracy as measured by the Dice coefficient and percent feature error from ground truth for the vast majority of the features being examined. GLNDM-based texture parameters emerged as the top performing category of radiomcs features in terms of robustness against contouring variability for discretization schemes engaging number of gray levels of 32, 64, and 128 while GLCOM-based parameters stood out for discretization scheme engaging 256 gray levels. How and to what extent interrater reliability of radiomics features vary in response to the number of raters were largely feature-dependent. It was concluded that impact of contouring variability on PET-based radiomics features is present to varying degrees and could be experienced as a barrier to convey PET-based radiomics research to clinical relevance.

Slowing improvements in life expectancy across European Economic Area countries

Background

Life expectancy improvements have slowed down in several European countries since around 2011. The relative contributions from changes in specific conditions (e.g. cancers) and broader risk factors (e.g. smoking or austerity) remain unclear. We aimed to explore the different potential causes in 17 European Economic Area (EEA) countries.

Methods

We compared Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study estimates for life expectancy, years of life lost (YLLs) and population attributable fractions (PAFs) for risk factors, for 2005-2011 and 2011-2017 for 17 EEA countries. Three countries with the largest absolute improvements and three with the smallest were selected for analysis by gender, age, condition and risk factors.

Results

Norway, France and Belgium had the largest improvement in life expectancy (+1.5, +1.2 and +1.2 years respectively) from 2011 to 2017, and Germany, Iceland and the UK the smallest (+0.1, +0.2 and +0.2 years). Life expectancy reduced slightly for women aged over 80 in Germany and UK, men aged over 50 in Germany, and for men in all age groups up to 90 years in Iceland. Norway, France and Belgium saw faster improvements in YLLs from lung cancer and Norway and France for COPD in both men and women, and from self-harm in men, after 2011 than before. PAF for tobacco declined faster after 2011. Germany, Iceland and the UK saw slower improvements in cardiovascular disease and in Germany and the UK lung cancer. In Iceland, YLLs for cancers, self harm, respiratory disease, cirrhosis and dementia all worsened after 2011. PAF for tobacco remained high or declined less after 2011 in all 3 countries. PAFs for alcohol and drug use remained high in Iceland and UK.

Conclusions

Differential changes in major fatal diseases and risk factors help explain national changes in life expectancies, but national differences in data availability may affect results. Further research is needed into the ‘causes of the causes’, such as the 2008 economic crash in Iceland.

Key messages

Differential changes in major fatal diseases and risk factors help explain national changes in life expectancies. Norway, France and Belgium had the largest improvement in life expectancy from 2011 to 2017, and Germany, Iceland and the UK the smallest.

Abstract GS1-05: Apobec3 induced mutagenesis sensitizes murine models of triple negative breast cancer to immunotherapy by activating B-cells and CD4+ T-cells

Immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) therapies have led to remarkable clinical responses in cancers such as melanoma and non-small cell lung cancer. In breast cancer, current immunotherapy trials have placed an emphasis on triple negative breast cancers (TNBC), where early results suggest response rates of 10-20%. Thus, it is critical to identify predictive biomarkers to enhance patient selection for immunotherapy. With this goal in mind, we simulated a clinical trial employing anti-PD1 and anti-CTLA therapies in immune-intact genetically engineered mouse models (GEMMs) of TNBC. Testing of ICI therapies on 8 different GEMMs demonstrated that each model was resistant. Whole exome sequencing showed that each model also harbored a low mutation burden. Given that mutation load is predictive of immunotherapy response in other cancer types, and that Apobec3B activity is associated with higher tumor mutation burden (TMB) in breast cancer, we created two different tumor lines with overexpression of murine Apobec3.

In contrast to the parental lines, the Apobec3 overexpressing lines showed an elevated tumor mutation burden and new mutations were consistent with the Apobec mutation signature. These TNBC lines with new mutations resulting from Apobec3 activity were exquisitely sensitive to anti-PD1/anti-CTLA4 combination therapy; as assessed by reduction in tumor volume and extended overall survival. To identify features that predict response, we examined resistant and sensitive tumors at pretreatment, at 1 week of treatment, and at end stage by flow cytometry and mRNA-seq. Gene expression profiling identified multiple immune signatures as predictive of response to ICI therapy; specifically CD8+ T-effector memory cells, CD4+ T-cells, and activated B-Cells. Similarly, gene expression analysis showed that these cell types increased at 1 week of therapy in sensitive models but not in resistant models. Flow cytometry confirmed these predictions.

Next, we used an antibody based approach to separately deplete CD4+ T-Cells, CD8+ T-cells, or B-cells in Apobec3 mutagenized murine tumors receiving aPD1/aCTLA4 combination therapy. In each case, depletion of these populations significantly reduced the therapeutic response. However, mice receiving combination immunotherapy and depleted for CD8+ T-cells still exhibited a significant extension in overall survival compared to non-treated controls. In contrast, the CD4+ T-cell depleted mice and B-cell depleted mice exhibited no ICI therapeutic benefit.

Together, these data point to key immune biomarkers of response to anti-PD1/anti-CTLA4 therapy; we have further developed a genomic predictor of ICI response using our murine models and will test this on a human TNBC data set. Lastly, this GEMM system provides a rich RNA-seq resource, and new immune-activated models for TNBC, which uncovered a key role for B-cells and CD4+ T-cells in response to ICI therapies.

Citation Format: Hollern DP, Xu N, Mott KR, He X, Carey-Ewend K, Marron DS, Ford J, Parker JS, Vincent BG, Serody JS, Perou CM. Apobec3 induced mutagenesis sensitizes murine models of triple negative breast cancer to immunotherapy by activating B-cells and CD4+ T-cells [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2018 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2018 Dec 4-8; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2019;79(4 Suppl):Abstract nr GS1-05.

Identical and Nonidentical Twins: Risk and Factors Involved in Development of Islet Autoimmunity and Type 1 Diabetes

OBJECTIVE

There are variable reports of risk of concordance for progression to islet autoantibodies and type 1 diabetes in identical twins after one twin is diagnosed. We examined development of positive autoantibodies and type 1 diabetes and the effects of genetic factors and common environment on autoantibody positivity in identical twins, nonidentical twins, and full siblings.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Subjects from the TrialNet Pathway to Prevention Study (N = 48,026) were screened from 2004 to 2015 for islet autoantibodies (GAD antibody [GADA], insulinoma-associated antigen 2 [IA-2A], and autoantibodies against insulin [IAA]). Of these subjects, 17,226 (157 identical twins, 283 nonidentical twins, and 16,786 full siblings) were followed for autoantibody positivity or type 1 diabetes for a median of 2.1 years.

RESULTS

At screening, identical twins were more likely to have positive GADA, IA-2A, and IAA than nonidentical twins or full siblings (all P < 0.0001). Younger age, male sex, and genetic factors were significant factors for expression of IA-2A, IAA, one or more positive autoantibodies, and two or more positive autoantibodies (all P ≤ 0.03). Initially autoantibody-positive identical twins had a 69% risk of diabetes by 3 years compared with 1.5% for initially autoantibody-negative identical twins. In nonidentical twins, type 1 diabetes risk by 3 years was 72% for initially multiple autoantibody-positive, 13% for single autoantibody-positive, and 0% for initially autoantibody-negative nonidentical twins. Full siblings had a 3-year type 1 diabetes risk of 47% for multiple autoantibody-positive, 12% for single autoantibody-positive, and 0.5% for initially autoantibody-negative subjects.

CONCLUSIONS

Risk of type 1 diabetes at 3 years is high for initially multiple and single autoantibody-positive identical twins and multiple autoantibody-positive nonidentical twins. Genetic predisposition, age, and male sex are significant risk factors for development of positive autoantibodies in twins.

Low-Dose Anti-Thymocyte Globulin (ATG) Preserves β-Cell Function and Improves HbA1c in New-Onset Type 1 Diabetes

OBJECTIVE

A pilot study suggested that combination therapy with low-dose anti-thymocyte globulin (ATG) and pegylated granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (GCSF) preserves C-peptide in established type 1 diabetes (T1D) (duration 4 months to 2 years). We hypothesized that 1) low-dose ATG/GCSF or 2) low-dose ATG alone would slow the decline of β-cell function in patients with new-onset T1D (duration <100 days).

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

A three-arm, randomized, double-masked, placebo-controlled trial was performed by the Type 1 Diabetes TrialNet Study Group in 89 subjects: 29 subjects randomized to ATG (2.5 mg/kg intravenously) followed by pegylated GCSF (6 mg subcutaneously every 2 weeks for 6 doses), 29 to ATG alone (2.5 mg/kg), and 31 to placebo. The primary end point was mean area under the curve (AUC) C-peptide during a 2-h mixed-meal tolerance test 1 year after initiation of therapy. Significance was defined as one-sided P value < 0.025.

RESULTS

The 1-year mean AUC C-peptide was significantly higher in subjects treated with ATG (0.646 nmol/L) versus placebo (0.406 nmol/L) (P = 0.0003) but not in those treated with ATG/GCSF (0.528 nmol/L) versus placebo (P = 0.031). HbA_1c was significantly reduced at 1 year in subjects treated with ATG and ATG/GCSF, P = 0.002 and 0.011, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Low-dose ATG slowed decline of C-peptide and reduced HbA_1c in new-onset T1D. Addition of GCSF did not enhance C-peptide preservation afforded by low-dose ATG. Future studies should be considered to determine whether low-dose ATG alone or in combination with other agents may prevent or delay the onset of the disease.

A Type 1 Diabetes Genetic Risk Score Predicts Progression of Islet Autoimmunity and Development of Type 1 Diabetes in Individuals at Risk

OBJECTIVE

We tested the ability of a type 1 diabetes (T1D) genetic risk score (GRS) to predict progression of islet autoimmunity and T1D in at-risk individuals.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We studied the 1,244 TrialNet Pathway to Prevention study participants (T1D patients' relatives without diabetes and with one or more positive autoantibodies) who were genotyped with Illumina ImmunoChip (median [range] age at initial autoantibody determination 11.1 years [1.2-51.8], 48% male, 80.5% non-Hispanic white, median follow-up 5.4 years). Of 291 participants with a single positive autoantibody at screening, 157 converted to multiple autoantibody positivity and 55 developed diabetes. Of 953 participants with multiple positive autoantibodies at screening, 419 developed diabetes. We calculated the T1D GRS from 30 T1D-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms. We used multivariable Cox regression models, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves, and area under the curve (AUC) measures to evaluate prognostic utility of T1D GRS, age, sex, Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 (DPT-1) Risk Score, positive autoantibody number or type, HLA DR3/DR4-DQ8 status, and race/ethnicity. We used recursive partitioning analyses to identify cut points in continuous variables.

RESULTS

Higher T1D GRS significantly increased the rate of progression to T1D adjusting for DPT-1 Risk Score, age, number of positive autoantibodies, sex, and ethnicity (hazard ratio [HR] 1.29 for a 0.05 increase, 95% CI 1.06-1.6; P = 0.011). Progression to T1D was best predicted by a combined model with GRS, number of positive autoantibodies, DPT-1 Risk Score, and age (7-year time-integrated AUC = 0.79, 5-year AUC = 0.73). Higher GRS was significantly associated with increased progression rate from single to multiple positive autoantibodies after adjusting for age, autoantibody type, ethnicity, and sex (HR 2.27 for GRS >0.295, 95% CI 1.47-3.51; P = 0.0002).

CONCLUSIONS

The T1D GRS independently predicts progression to T1D and improves prediction along T1D stages in autoantibody-positive relatives.