Systematic disparities in reporting on community firearm violence on local television news in Philadelphia, PA, USA

Objective

To better understand how community firearm violence (CFV) is communicated to the public, we aimed to identify systematic differences between the characteristics of shooting victims and events covered on television news and all shootings in Philadelphia, PA, a city with escalating CFV incidence.

Methods

We compiled a stratified sample of local television news clips covering shootings that occurred in Philadelphia aired on two randomly selected days per month from January-June 2021 (n = 154 clips). We coded the clips to determine demographic and geographic information about the shooting victims and events and then matched coded shootings with corresponding shootings in the Philadelphia police database. We compared characteristics of shooting victims and shooting event locations depicted in television clips (n = 62) with overall characteristics of shootings in Philadelphia during the study period (n = 1082).

Results

Compared to all individuals shot, victims whose shootings were covered on local television news more likely to be children and more likely to be shot in a mass shooting. The average median household income of shooting locations featured on television was significantly higher than the median household income across all shooting locations ($60,302 for television shootings vs. $41,233 for all shootings; p = 0.002). Shootings featured on television occurred in areas with lower rates of income inequality and racialized economic segregation compared to all shooting locations.

Conclusions

Television news outlets in Philadelphia systematically over-reported shootings of children, mass shootings, and shootings that occurred in neighborhoods with higher median household income, less socioeconomic inequality, and lower rates of racialized economic segregation.

Trends in police complaints and arrests on New York City subways, 2018 to 2023: an interrupted time-series analysis

BACKGROUND

Public transportation use is influenced by perceptions of safety. Concerns related to crime on New York City (NYC) transit have risen following NYC's COVID-19 pandemic state of emergency declaration in 2020, leading to declines in subway ridership. In response, the most recent mayoral administration implemented a Subway Safety Plan in 2022. This study aimed to quantify the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Subway Safety Plan on rates of complaints to and arrests by the New York City Police Department (NYPD) Transit Bureau.

METHODS

Using publicly available data on complaints and arrests, we conducted interrupted time-series analyses using autoregressive integrated moving average models applied to monthly data for the period from September 2018 to August 2023. We estimated changes in the rates of complaints to and arrests by the NYPD Transit Bureau before and after: (1) the COVID-19 pandemic state of emergency declaration (i.e., March 2020), and (2) the announcement of the Subway Safety Plan (i.e., February 2022). We also examined trends by complaint and arrest type as well as changes in proportion of arrests by demographic and geographic groups.

RESULTS

After the COVID-19 pandemic declaration, there was an 84% increase (i.e., an absolute increase of 6.07 per 1,000,000 riders, CI 1.42, 10.71) in complaints to the NYPD Transit Bureau, including a 99% increase (0.91 per 1,000,000 riders, CI 0.42, 1.41) in complaints for assault and a 125% increase in complaints for harassment (0.94 per 1,000,000 riders, CI 0.29, 1.60). Following the Subway Safety Plan there was an increase in the rate of arrests for harassment (0.004 per 1,000,000 riders, CI 0.001, 0.007), as well as decreases in the proportion of arrests for individuals racialized as White (- 0.02, CI - 0.04, - 0.01) and proportion of arrests in the borough of Manhattan (- 0.13, CI - 0.17, - 0.09).

CONCLUSIONS

The increased rates of complaints to the NYPD Transit Bureau following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic remained elevated following the enactment of the Subway Safety Plan. Further evaluation efforts can help identify effective means of promoting safety on public transportation.

Interstate Highway Connections and Traced Gun Transfers Between the 48 Contiguous United States

Importance

Interstate gun flow has critical implications for gun violence prevention, as gun transfers across state lines can undermine local gun control policies.

Objective

To identify possible gun trafficking routes along interstate highways in the US.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This repeated-measures, ecological, cross-sectional study used data from the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives from January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2019, to examine associations between interstate connections via 13 highways that each spanned at least 1000 miles and interstate traced gun transfer counts for the 48 contiguous United States. Analyses were completed in November 2023.

Exposures

Characteristics of the origin states and the transportation connections between the destination state and the origin states.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The main outcome was the total count of guns used in crimes in each destination state per year that were originally purchased in the origin state. Bayesian conditional autoregressive Poisson models were used to examine associations between the count of guns used in crime traced to interstate purchases and interstate highway connections between origin and destination states.

Results

Between 2010 and 2019, 526 801 guns used in crimes in the contiguous 48 states were traced to interstate purchases. Northbound gun transfers along the Interstate 95 corridor were greater than expected to New Jersey (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 2.80; 95% credible interval [CrI], 1.01-7.68) and Maryland (IRR, 3.07; 95% CrI, 1.09-8.61); transfers were similarly greater along Interstate 15 southbound, Interstate 25 southbound, Interstate 35 southbound, Interstate 75 northbound and southbound, Interstate 10 westbound, and Interstate 20 eastbound and westbound.

Conclusions and Relevance

This repeated-measures, ecological, cross-sectional study identified that guns used in crimes traced to interstate purchases moved routinely between states along multiple major transportation routes. Interstate gun transfers are a major contributor to gun crime, injury, and death in the US. National policies and interstate cooperation are needed to address this issue.

Defining Spatial Epidemiology: A Systematic Review and Re-Orientation

BACKGROUND

Spatial epidemiology has emerged as an important subfield of epidemiology over the past quarter century. We trace the origins of spatial epidemiology and note that its emergence coincided with technological developments in spatial statistics and geography. We hypothesize that spatial epidemiology makes important contributions to descriptive epidemiology and analytic risk factor studies, but is not yet aligned with epidemiology's current focus on causal inference and intervention.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review of studies indexed in PubMed that used the term "spatial epidemiolog*" in the title, abstract, or keywords. Excluded papers were not written in English, examined disease in animals, or reported biologic pathogen distribution only. We coded the included papers into five categories (review, demonstration of method, descriptive, analytic, intervention) and recorded the unit of analysis (i.e., individual vs. ecological). We additionally examined papers coded as analytic ecologic studies using scales for lexical content.

RESULTS

A total of 482 papers met the inclusion criteria, including 76 reviews, 117 demonstrations of methods, 122 descriptive studies, 167 analytic studies, and 0 intervention studies. Demonstration studies were most common from 2006 to 2014, and analytic studies were most common after 2015. Among the analytic ecologic studies, those published in later years used more terms relevant to spatial statistics (IRR =1.3, 95%CI: 1.1, 1.5) and causal inference (IRR =1.1, 95%CI: 1.1, 1.2).

CONCLUSIONS

Spatial epidemiology is an important and growing subfield of epidemiology. We suggest a re-orientation to help align its practice with the goals of contemporary epidemiology.

From neighborhood to household: connections between neighborhood vacant and abandoned property and family violence

Rates of family violence, including intimate partner violence (IPV) and child maltreatment, remain high in the U.S. and contribute to substantial health and economic costs. How neighborhood environment may influence family violence remains poorly understood. We examine the association between neighborhood vacant and abandoned properties and family violence, and the role collective efficacy may play in that relationship. Data were used from a longitudinal cohort of 218 maternal-child dyads in a southern U.S. city known for elevated rates of violence. Women were matched on their propensity score, for living in a neighborhood with elevated vacant and cited properties. Analyses accounting for clustering in neighborhood and matched groups were conducted to examine the association between neighborhood vacant and abandoned property and family violence, and the potential mediating relationship of collective efficacy. The likelihood of experiencing child maltreatment at 12-months of age was more than twice as high for children living in neighborhoods with a high vacant and cited property rates compared to women living in neighborhoods with fewer vacant and cited properties (OR=2.11, 95% CI=1.03, 4.31). Women living in neighborhoods characterized by high levels of vacant and cited properties were also more than twice as likely to report IPV (OR=2.52, 95% CI=1.21, 5.25). Associations remained mostly stable after controlling for key covariates. Collective efficacy did not act as a mediator in the relationship between vacant and cited properties and family violence. Reducing neighborhood vacant and cited properties may be an important target for interventions focused on reducing family violence.

Individuals' travel to alcohol outlets: The fallacy of the local bar

INTRODUCTION

Studies relating alcohol outlet density around homes to alcohol consumption produce mixed results. One possible explanation is that people travel to outlets away from their homes. This study aims to characterise individuals' trips to outlets, describe these trip locations relative to other activities and estimate associations between alcohol outlet density and trips to outlets.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study used 2014-2018 household travel data from the Victoria Integrated Survey of Travel and Activity. We estimated the average change in the cumulative travel characteristics associated with each additional trip to bars and liquor stores, accounting for complex trips to multiple destinations. Logistic regression models estimated odds that individuals travelled to outlets in relation to outlet density in their home local government area (LGA).

RESULTS

Among 23,512 respondents, 378 (1.6%) travelled to any bar and 79 (0.3%) any liquor store the survey day. Bar trips added 8.2 km (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.6, 11.8) and 18.1 min (95% CI 13.6, 22.6) to cumulative travel; 41% of attended bars were co-located in participants' home LGA. Greater bar and liquor store density within the home LGA were associated with overall trips to these outlet types.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

Individuals travel beyond their residential area to bars, but travel to liquor stores closer to home. Bar and liquor store density within individuals' home LGA were associated with trips to outlets. Trips to local bars in near home comprised a minority of trips to bars in this sample. Studies of retail alcohol access should account for trips to bars away from home.

Impact and Equity of New York City's Tobacco Retail Reduction Initiative

INTRODUCTION

High levels of tobacco retailer density in communities is associated with a range of tobacco use behaviors and is a key structural driver of tobacco-related disparities. This study evaluates the impacts of New York City's (NYC) novel policy intervention to cap tobacco retail licenses on tobacco retailer density levels and neighborhood inequities in tobacco access.

METHODS

Using geocoded tobacco retail licensing data from 2010 to 2022, Bayesian conditional autoregressive Poisson panel models estimated the association between policy implementation in 2018 and retailer density per 1,000 population, controlling for neighborhood-level sociodemographic factors. Data were analyzed in 2023.

RESULTS

The number of tobacco retail licenses decreased from 9,304 in 2010 to 5,107 in 2022, with the rate of decline significantly accelerating post-policy (-14·2% versus -34·2%). Policy effects were stronger in districts with lower income and greater proportions of non-Hispanic Black residents.

CONCLUSIONS

NYC's policy substantially reduced tobacco retailer density and appeared to close longstanding patterns of inequity in tobacco access, serving as a rare example of a tobacco control policy that may effectively reduce tobacco-related disparities. This emergent approach to restructure tobacco retail in communities may reach populations that have not benefitted from traditional tobacco control policies and should be considered by other localities.

The Effect of Gun-Free School Zones on Crimes Committed with a Firearm in Saint Louis, Missouri

There have been no peer-reviewed, quantitative research studies on the effectiveness of gun-free school zones. The objective of this study was to use a cross-sectional, multi-group controlled ecological study design in St. Louis, MO city that compared the counts of crimes committed with a firearm occurring in gun-free school zones compared to a contiguous area immediately surrounding the gun-free school zone (i.e., gun-allowing zones) in 2019. Gun-free school zones were measured and analyzed in two ways. In the primary analysis, boundaries of the tax parcels were used for each school as the beginning of the gun-free school zone. Results from this analysis, after adjustment for pair-matching and confounding, were null. In the secondary analysis, gun-free school zones were measured as beginning at the geographic centroid of the school's address. After adjusting for the pair-matching and confounding, this analysis showed 13.7% significantly fewer crimes committed with a firearm in gun-free school zones compared to gun-allowing zones. These results suggest that gun-free school zones are not being targeted for firearm crime in St. Louis, MO.

Self-Report Survey Measures of Alcohol-Impaired Driving: A Systematic Review

OBJECTIVE

Alcohol-impaired driving is a major contributor to motor vehicle crash deaths and injury. Many survey studies include self-report measures of alcohol-impaired driving, but no guidance is available to help researchers select from among available measures. The aims of this systematic review were to compile a list of measures that researchers have used previously, to compare performance between measures, and to identify the measures with highest validity and reliability.

METHOD

Literature searches of PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science identified studies that assessed alcohol-impaired driving behavior through self-report. The measures from each study and, if available, indices of reliability or validity were extracted. Using the measures' text, we developed 10 codes to group similar measures and compare them. For example, the "alcohol effects" code refers to driving while feeling dizzy or lightheaded after drinking, and the "drink count" code pertains to the number of drinks someone consumed before driving. For measures with multiple items, each item was categorized separately.

RESULTS

After screening according to the eligibility criteria, 41 articles were included in the review. Thirteen articles reported on reliability. No articles reported on validity. The self-report measures with the highest reliability coefficients contained items from multiple codes, namely alcohol effects and drink count.

CONCLUSIONS

Self-report alcohol-impaired driving measures with multiple items evaluating distinct aspects of alcohol-impaired driving show better reliability than measures using a single item. Future work investigating the validity of these measures is needed to determine the best approach for conducting self-report research in this area.

Suicide Following the COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak: Variation Across Place, Over Time, and Across Sociodemographic Groups. A Systematic Integrative Review

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

To systematically examine changes in suicide trends following the initial COVID-19 outbreak, focusing on geographical and temporal heterogeneity and on differences across sociodemographic subgroups.

RECENT FINDINGS

Of 46 studies, 26 had low risk of bias. In general, suicides remained stable or decreased following the initial outbreak - however, suicide increases were detected during spring 2020 in Mexico, Nepal, India, Spain, and Hungary; and after summer 2020 in Japan. Trends were heterogeneous across sociodemographic groups (i.e., there were increases among racially minoritized individuals in the US, young adults and females across ages in Japan, older males in Brazil and Germany, and older adults across sex in China and Taiwan). Variations may be explained by differences in risk of COVID-19 contagion and death and in socioeconomic vulnerability. Monitoring geographical, temporal, and sociodemographic differences in suicide trends during the COVID-19 pandemic is critical to guide suicide prevention efforts.

Trends in alcohol-impaired crashes in California, 2016 to 2021: A time series analysis for alcohol involvement and crash distribution among demographic subgroups

BACKGROUND

In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic and control measures changed alcohol consumption in the United States (US) and globally. Before the pandemic, alcohol-impaired crashes contributed to approximately one-third of all road traffic crash injuries and fatalities nationally. We examined the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on crashes and examined differences in alcohol-involved crashes across various subgroups.

METHODS

The University of California Berkeley Transportation Injury Mapping Systems provided information on all crashes reported to the California Highway Patrol from January 1, 2016 through December 31, 2021. Using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models applied to weekly time series data, we estimated the effect of California's first mandatory statewide shelter-in-place order (March 19, 2020) on crashes per 100,000 population. We also examined crash subgroups according to crash severity, sex, race/ethnicity, age, and alcohol involvement.

RESULTS

In California, the mean crash rate per week before the pandemic (January 1, 2016-March 18, 2020) was 9.5 crashes per 100,000 population, and 10.3% of those were alcohol-involved. After the initiation of the COVID-19 stay-at-home order, the percentage of crashes that were alcohol-involved rose to 12.7%. Overall, the crash rate across California decreased significantly (-4.6 crashes per 100,000; 95% CI: -5.3, -3.9), including across all examined subgroups, with the greatest decrease among the least severe crashes. However, there was a 2.3% absolute increase in the proportion of crashes that were alcohol-involved (0.02 crashes per 100,000; 95% CI: 0.02, 0.03).

CONCLUSIONS

The initiation of a COVID-19 stay-at-home ordinance in California was associated with a substantial decrease in overall crash rates. While crashes have returned to pre-pandemic levels, alcohol-involved crashes remain elevated. The initiation of the stay-at-home order significantly increased alcohol-impaired driving, which has remained elevated.

Assessing the Gun Violence Archive as an Epidemiologic Data Source for Community Firearm Violence in 4 US Cities

Importance

Firearm injury is a major public health burden in the US, and yet there is no single, validated national data source to study community firearm violence, including firearm homicide and nonfatal shootings that result from interpersonal violence.

Objective

To assess the validity of the Gun Violence Archive as a source of data on events of community firearm violence and to examine the characteristics of individuals injured in shootings.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cross-sectional observational study compared data on community firearm violence from the Gun Violence Archive with publicly available police department data, which were assumed to be the reference standard, between January 1, 2015, and December 31, 2020. Cities included in the study (Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; New York, New York; Chicago, Illinois; and Cincinnati, Ohio) had a population of greater than 300 000 people according to the 2020 US Census and had publicly available shooting data from the city police department. A large city was defined as having a population greater than or equal to 500 000 (ie, Philadelphia, New York City, and Chicago). Data analysis was performed in December 2022.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Events of community firearm violence from the Gun Violence Archive were matched to police department shootings by date and location. The sensitivity and positive predictive value of the data were calculated (0.9-1.0, excellent; 0.8-0.9, good; 0.7-0.8, fair; 0.6-0.7, poor; and <0.6, failed).

Results

A total of 26 679 and 32 588 shooting events were documented in the Gun Violence Archive and the police department databases, respectively, during the study period. The overall sensitivity of the Gun Violence Archive over the 6-year period was 81.1%, and the positive predictive value was 99.0%. The sensitivity steadily improved over time. Shootings involving multiple individuals and those involving women and children were less likely to be missing from the Gun Violence Archive, suggesting a systematic missingness.

Conclusions and Relevance

These findings support the use of the Gun Violence Archive in large cities for research requiring its unique advantages (ie, spatial resolution, timeliness, and geographic coverage), albeit with caution regarding a more granular examination of epidemiology given its apparent bias toward shootings involving multiple persons and those involving women and children.

Neighborhood Built Environment and Sleep Health: A Longitudinal Study in Low-Income and Predominantly African-American Neighborhoods

In the present study, we examined the associations between physical characteristics of neighborhoods and sleep health outcomes and assessed the mediating role of physical activity in these associations. A longitudinal study (the Pittsburgh Hill/Homewood Research on Eating, Shopping, and Health (PHRESH) Zzz Study; n = 1,051) was conducted in 2 low-income, predominately African-American neighborhoods in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, with repeated measures of neighborhood characteristics and sleep health outcomes from 2013 to 2018. Built environment measures of walkability, urban design, and neighborhood disorder were captured from systematic field observations. Sleep health outcomes included insufficient sleep, sleep duration, wakefulness after sleep onset, and sleep efficiency measured from 7-day actigraphy data. G-computations based on structural nested mean models were used to examine the total effects of each built environment feature, and causal mediation analyses were used to evaluate direct and indirect effects operating through physical activity. Urban design features were associated with decreased wakefulness after sleep onset (risk difference (RD) = -1.26, 95% confidence interval (CI): -4.31, -0.33). Neighborhood disorder (RD = -0.46, 95% CI: -0.86, -0.07) and crime rate (RD = -0.54, 95% CI: -0.93, -0.08) were negatively associated with sleep efficiency. Neighborhood walkability was not associated with sleep outcomes. We did not find a strong and consistent mediating role of physical activity. Interventions to improve sleep should target modifiable factors, including urban design and neighborhood disorder.

Optimizing sobriety checkpoints to maximize public health benefits and minimize operational costs

BACKGROUND

Sobriety checkpoints are a highly effective strategy to reduce alcohol-impaired driving, but they are used infrequently in the USA. Recent evidence from observational studies suggests that using optimized sobriety checkpoints-operating for shorter duration with fewer officers-can minimize operational costs without reducing public health benefits. The aim of this research was to conduct a pilot study to test whether police can feasibly implement optimized sobriety checkpoints and whether researchers can examine optimized sobriety checkpoints compared to usual practice within a non-randomized controlled trial study design.

METHODS

The study site was the Town of Apex, NC. We worked with Apex Police Department to develop a schedule of sobriety checkpoints during calendar year 2021 that comprised 2 control checkpoints (conducted according to routine practice) and 4 optimized checkpoints staffed by fewer officers. Our primary operations aim was to test whether police can feasibly implement optimized sobriety checkpoints. Our primary research aim was to identify barriers and facilitators for conducting an intervention study of optimized sobriety checkpoints compared to usual practice. A secondary aim was to assess motorist support for sobriety checkpoints and momentary stress while passing through checkpoints.

RESULTS

Apex PD conducted 5 of the 6 checkpoints and reported similar operational capabilities and results during the optimized checkpoints compared to control checkpoints. For example, a mean of 4 drivers were investigated for possibly driving while impaired at the optimized checkpoints, compared to 2 drivers at control checkpoints. The field team conducted intercept surveys among 112 motorists at 4 of the 6 checkpoints in the trial schedule. The survey response rate was 11% from among 1,045 motorists who passed through these checkpoints. Over 90% of respondents supported sobriety checkpoints, and momentary stress during checkpoints was greater for motorists who reported consuming any alcohol in the last 90 days compared to nondrinkers (OR = 6.7, 95%CI: 1.6, 27.1).

CONCLUSIONS

Results of this study indicate the sobriety checkpoints can feasibly be optimized by municipal police departments, but it will be very difficult to assess the impacts of optimized checkpoints compared to usual practice using an experimental study design.

Casino accessibility and suicide: A county-level study of 50 US states, 2000 to 2016

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Suicide is the tenth leading cause of death in the United States (US). Research over many decades identifies that its etiology is complex, with risk factors operating in multiple domains. One such risk factor is gambling. Over the past three decades, exposure to gambling has increased dramatically in the United States. The aim of this study was to measure the magnitude of the association between casino density and absolute risk of suicide in US counties.

DESIGN, SETTING, CASES

This spatial panel analysis used data for 3131 counties from 50 US states from 2000 to 2016, for an overall sample of 53 227 county-year units. Using Bayesian conditional autoregressive Poisson models, we measured incidence rate ratios and credible intervals for the association between the density per population of casinos and other gambling outlets and the incidence of suicide.

MEASUREMENTS

The outcome of interest was counts of suicides. The main exposures of interest were casinos and other gambling outlets.

FINDINGS

A total of 527 401 suicides occurred during the study period. On average, there was a mean of 1.3 casinos (SD = 9.1) and 1.4 other gambling venues (SD = 5.9) in each county-year. After controlling for confounding, the incidence rate ratio for casinos was 1.016, and the credible interval was between 1.010 and 1.023.

CONCLUSIONS

The density of casinos and other gambling venues is positively associated with suicide mortality in the United States.

Unintended reductions in assaults near sobriety checkpoints: A longitudinal spatial analysis

BACKGROUND

Sobriety checkpoints are a form of proactive policing in which law enforcement officers concentrate at a point on the roadway to systematically perform sobriety tests for all passing drivers. We investigated whether sobriety checkpoints unintentionally reduce assaults in surrounding areas.

METHODS

Exposures of interest were sobriety checkpoints conducted by the Los Angeles Police Department between 2012 and 2017. Comparison units were matched 1:2 to sobriety checkpoints, selected as the same point location temporally lagged by exactly ±168 hours. The outcome was the density of police-reported assaults around the checkpoint location.

RESULTS

In mixed effects regression analyses, assault incidence was lower when sobriety checkpoints were in operation compared to the same location ±168 hours [b= -0.0108, 95% CI: (-0.0203, -0.0012)].

CONCLUSIONS

Sobriety checkpoints were associated with decreased assault incidence, but estimated effect sizes were small and effects did not endure long after checkpoints ended.

Gun shows and universal background check laws across state lines

States with more gun laws have fewer gun assaults, and associations are strongest for background check laws. However, sales between private buyers and sellers (i.e., gun shows) are exempt from some background check requirements according to federal and most state laws. The aim of this study was to determine whether gun shows are more likely to take place in counties that are near states with universal background check laws. This cross-sectional study used gun show data from a 2018 public online listing aggregated within 3107 counties in the contiguous 48 states. The main independent variable was the presence of a universal background check law in neighboring states. We controlled for potential drivers of demand for gun shows, including the total number of gun laws within-state and in neighboring states, local and in-flowing population size, and proportion of the local and in-flowing population who were gun owners. Bayesian conditional autoregressive Poisson models estimated associations between neighboring-state universal background check law and the presence of a gun show in each county while accounting for spatial dependencies and nesting of counties within states. Of the 1869 identified gun shows, nine of the states in which they occurred had a universal background check law. The presence of excess gun shows in counties near states with universal background check laws is consistent with the hypothesis that gun shows service demand from people seeking to circumvent prohibitions against gun purchases.

Registry Data in Injury Research: Study Designs and Interpretation

Purpose of Review

Injury data is frequently captured in registries that form a census of 100% of known cases that meet specified inclusion criteria. These data are routinely used in injury research with a variety of study designs. We reviewed study designs commonly used with data extracted from injury registries and evaluated the advantages and disadvantages of each design type.

Recent Findings

Registry data are suited to 5 major design types: (1) Description, (2) Ecologic (with Ecologic Cohort as a particularly informative sub-type), (3) Case-control (with location-based and culpability studies as salient subtypes), (4) Case-only (including case-case and case-crossover subtypes), and (5) Outcomes.

Summary

Registries are an important resource for injury research. Investigators considering use of a registry should be aware of the advantages and disadvantages of available study designs.

Causal Inference with Case-Only Studies in Injury Epidemiology Research

Purpose of Review

We review the application and limitations of two implementations of the "case-only design" in injury epidemiology with example analyses of Fatality Analysis Reporting System data.

Recent Findings

The term "case-only design" covers a variety of epidemiologic designs; here, two implementations of the design are reviewed: (1) studies to uncover etiological heterogeneity and (2) studies to measure exposure effect modification. These two designs produce results that require different interpretations and rely upon different assumptions. The key assumption of case-only designs for exposure effect modification, the more commonly used of the two designs, does not commonly hold for injuries and so results from studies using this design cannot be interpreted. Case-only designs to identify etiological heterogeneity in injury risk are interpretable but only when the case-series is conceptualized as arising from an underlying cohort.

Summary

The results of studies using case-only designs are commonly misinterpreted in the injury literature.

Firearm assaults against US law enforcement officers in the line-of-duty: Associations with firearm ownership and state firearm laws

Law enforcement officers are disproportionately affected by occupational injury. Firearm violence is the second leading cause of occupational mortality for this group behind motor vehicle crashes. In the general population, greater firearm ownership and weaker firearm laws are associated with increased firearm violence incidence. It is plausible that a high prevalence of firearms could also be associated with a greater incidence of LEO assault with a firearm. Using data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s, Uniform Crime Reporting, Police Employee Data for 2006–2016, we conducted a panel analysis to estimate the association between state-level estimates of household firearm ownership and LEO assault with a firearm. We additionally examined if effect modification by universal background check law status was present. Higher state-level firearm ownership was associated with an increased odds of LEO assault with a firearm in multi-level models. This association was modified by universal background check law status. In states without a universal background check law, for every 1% increase in state-level firearm ownership per agency-year, there was a 12.4% increase in the odds of an LEO assault with a firearm when adjusting for confounders (OR:1.124; 95% CI:1.018,1.240). In states with a universal background check law, there was no association. Findings, though small in magnitude, suggest aggregate firearm ownership may contribute to LEO assault with a firearm in states without a universal background check law. Future research to prevent LEO assault with a firearm should combine measures to address high rates of firearm ownership with other evidence-based prevention strategies.

Historical redlining and the epidemiology of present-day firearm violence in the United States: A multi-city analysis

Firearm violence is a major cause of morbidity, mortality, and racial health disparities in the United States. Previous studies have identified associations between historically racist housing discrimination (i.e., redlining practices) and firearm violence; however, these studies generally have been limited to a single city and have yet to provide sufficient evidence through which to determine the extent and dynamics of the impact of this relationship across the country. The aim of our study was (1) to estimate the association of historical redlining on both violent and firearm death across the country in nested models; and (2) to examine spatial non-stationarity to determine whether the impact of historical redlining on violent and firearm death was the same across the U.S. We used multilevel Bayesian conditional autoregressive Poisson models to determine the relationship between redlining as illustrated through Home Owners' Loan Corporation maps and 2019 violent and firearm deaths at the ZIP code-level nested within 21 cities across the U.S. We found that at the ZIP code level, there was a dose-responsive relationship between HOLC grading and the incidence of present-day firearm deaths. In general, redlined ZIP codes had higher relative incidence of firearm deaths. Associations were not stable across cities. For example, associations were relatively stronger in Baltimore, MD and weaker in Los Angeles, CA. This research reinforces the findings of previous studies examining the impact of redlining on firearm death across the extent of the entire country in 21 cities and claim that HOLC grades are associated with present-day violence.

The geography of sobriety checkpoints and alcohol-impaired driving

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Sobriety checkpoints are an effective strategy to reduce alcohol-impaired driving, motor vehicle crashes, injuries and fatalities. The aim of this study was to identify the geographic extent over which individual sobriety checkpoints affect alcohol-impaired driving.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS

Spatial ecological panel analysis using geolocated breath test data from the Queensland Police Service, Australia, for January 2012 to June 2018. Data were aggregated over 338 weeks within 528 Statistical Area level 2 (SA2) units (n = 178 464 SA2-weeks) and 84 Statistical Area level 3 (SA3) units (n = 28 392 SA3-weeks). SA2 units in Queensland contain a mean population of 8883.5 (SD = 55 018.3) and encompass 468.9 roadway kilometers (SD = 1490.0); SA3 units contain a mean population of 57 201.6 (SD = 29521.6) and encompass 2936.0 roadway kilometers (SD = 7025.0).

MEASUREMENTS

Independent measures were the density of sobriety checkpoints conducted per 500 roadway kilometers within local and spatially adjacent space-time units. The dependent measure was the rate of tests that detected breath alcohol concentration (a proxy for blood alcohol concentration [BAC]) greater than the legal maximum value of 0.05% for fully licensed drivers in Queensland. Bayesian hierarchical spatial negative binomial models-related sobriety checkpoints to the rate of breath tests with BAC ≥ 0.05% within and between space-time units.

FINDINGS

One additional sobriety checkpoint conducted per 500 roadway kilometers was associated with 2.5% reduction in the rate of breath tests with BAC ≥ 0.05% within local SA2 units (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 0.975; 95% credibility interval (CrI): 0.973-0.978), and with 5.5% reduction in the rate of breath tests with BAC ≥ 0.05% within local SA3 units (IRR = 0.945; 95%CrI: 0.937-0.953). Associations were attenuated towards null in spatially adjacent units and in temporally lagged units (e.g. SA3-weeks; adjacent lagged 1 week: IRR = 0.969; 95%CrI: 0.937-1.003).

CONCLUSIONS

Individual sobriety checkpoints appear to be associated with reductions in nearby alcohol-impaired driving. Relationships decay after approximately 1 week and beyond local areas containing approximately 60 000 residents and 3000 kilometers of roadway.

The changing epidemiology of interpersonal firearm violence during the COVID-19 pandemic in Philadelphia, PA

Recent increases in firearm violence in U.S. cities are well-documented, however dynamic changes in the people, places and intensity of this public health threat during the COVID-19 pandemic are relatively unexplored. This descriptive epidemiologic study spanning from January 1, 2015 - March 31, 2021 utilizes the Philadelphia Police Department's registry of shooting victims, a database which includes all individuals shot and/or killed due to interpersonal firearm violence in the city of Philadelphia. We compared victim and event characteristics prior to the pandemic with those following implementation of pandemic containment measures. In this study, containment began on March 16, 2020, when non-essential businesses were ordered to close in Philadelphia. There were 331 (SE = 13.9) individuals shot/quarter pre-containment vs. 545 (SE = 66.4) individuals shot/quarter post-containment (p = 0.031). Post-containment, the proportion of women shot increased by 39% (95% CI: 1.21, 1.59), and the proportion of children shot increased by 17% (95% CI: 1.00, 1.35). Black women and children were more likely to be shot post-containment (RR 1.11, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.20 and RR 1.08, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.14, respectively). The proportion of mass shootings (≥4 individuals shot within 100 m within 1 h) increased by 53% post-containment (95% CI: 1.25, 1.88). Geographic analysis revealed relative increases in all shootings and mass shootings in specific city locations post-containment. The observed changes in firearm injury epidemiology following COVID-19 containment in Philadelphia demonstrate an intensification in firearm violence, which is increasingly impacting people who are likely made more vulnerable by existing social and structural disadvantage. These findings support existing knowledge about structural causes of interpersonal firearm violence and suggest structural solutions are required to address this public health threat.

Overflowing Disparities: Examining the Availability of Litter Bins in New York City

In the 1980s, activists' concerns about the disproportionate placements of landfills in low-income communities ignited the environmental justice movement. Today, similar issues of environmental injustice-the limited availability of litter bins across New York City (NYC) neighborhoods-remain unresolved. This study examines the association between NYC neighborhood income and litter bin availability. The NYC Department of Sanitation 2020 Litter Bin Inventory and archival measures of neighborhood composition and socioeconomic status were aggregated within NYC census tract neighborhoods. Multilevel Bayesian conditional autoregressive Poisson models estimated the prevalence rate ratio for counts of litter bins according to median household income in each census tract, accounting for spatial autocorrelation. Bivariate associations identified that census tracts with higher median household income had a greater prevalence of litter bins than census tracts with lower median household income; however, spatial autocorrelation attenuated the relationship between median household income and availability of litter bins. Further research is necessary to identify the spatially structured condition that accounted for the observed effect. The results warrant further investigation of both perceived and actual disparities in litter bin availability.

Mediating role of psychological distress in the associations between neighborhood social environments and sleep health

STUDY OBJECTIVES

The characteristics of neighborhood social environments, such as safety and social cohesion, have been examined as determinants of poor sleep. The current study investigates associations between neighborhood social characteristics and sleep health, as well as the mediating role of psychological distress on these possible associations.

METHODS

Three waves of PHRESH Zzz (n = 2699), a longitudinal study conducted in two low-income, predominately Black neighborhoods, were utilized for this analysis. The characteristics of neighborhood social environments were measured using crime rates, a neighborhood social disorder index, and self-reported social cohesion. Sleep health was measured via 7 days of wrist-worn actigraphy as insufficient sleep, sleep duration, wake after sleep onset (WASO), and sleep efficiency. G-estimations based on structural nested mean models and mediation analyses were performed to estimate the effects of neighborhood social environments on sleep as well as direct/indirect effects through psychological distress.

RESULTS

Crime rate around residential addresses was associated with increased risk of insufficient sleep (risk ratio: 1.05 [1.02, 1.12]), increased WASO (β: 3.73 [0.26, 6.04]), and decreased sleep efficiency (β: -0.54 [-0.91, -0.09]). Perceived social cohesion was associated with decreased risk of insufficient sleep (OR: 0.93 [0.88, 0.97]). Psychological distress mediated part of the associations of crime and social cohesion with insufficient sleep.

CONCLUSIONS

Neighborhood social environments may contribute to poor sleep health in low-income, predominantly Black neighborhoods, and psychological distress can be a salient pathway linking these neighborhood characteristics and sleep health.

Neighborhood Blighted Property Removal and 311 Calls for Non-Emergency Services: A Test of a Marker of Social Control

Many studies have demonstrated that collective efficacy is associated with positive health outcomes, lower crime, and violence in urban communities, and residents' emotional connection to their community. Remediation of blighted properties has been theoretically linked to increases in collective efficacy. The purpose of this study was to examine the impact of blighted property remediation on city non-emergency 311 calls for public incivilities and deterioration, as potential markers of collective efficacy. We used a quasi-experimental design to test whether 311 calls for service changed around remediated vacant lots in New Orleans, Louisiana, United States, many of which were left vacant after Hurricane Katrina in 2005. In six city neighborhoods eligible for blighted property remediation as part of a city program, 203 treated vacant lots were matched 1:3 without replacement to control lots that were eligible for but did not receive treatment. This yielded a total of 812 vacant lots partitioned within 48 months, or 38,976 lot-months. Controls were in the same New Orleans neighborhoods as their matched treatment lots but were at least 250 feet away to minimize contamination. Overall difference-in-differences models detected postintervention declines in calls related to dumping and garbage, and slight but mostly non-significant changes in calls between intervention and control lots in all but calls for dumping and vehicles. Blighted property remediation may have an impact on dumping and garbage, which is important. Despite being geographically specific, low-cost and longitudinal, the nature of 311 calls and structural and historic factors at play in both the concentration of vacant properties in communities and residents' willingness to call must be considered. Further analyses of changes in 311 data and additional qualitative inquiry are warranted to more fully determine the utility of these data.

Ridesharing and alcohol-related assaults in NYC: A spatial ecological case-crossover study

OBJECTIVE

Ridesharing has changed urban transportation and the distribution of some health outcomes, including alcohol consumption. Studies relating ridesharing to crime and violence at low space-time resolution (e.g., county-months) find mixed results. The aim of this study was to examine whether ridesharing was associated with increased incidence of alcohol-related assaults within highly resolved space-time units.

METHODS

This spatial ecological case-crossover study used rideshare and taxi trip data from the New York City (NYC) Taxi and Limousine Commission for 2017-2018 and assault data from the NYC Police Department, aggregated within taxi zone-hours. Conditional logistic regression models estimated the odds of observing an assault for case taxi zone-hours in which an assault occurred compared to two control units of the same taxi zone-hour one week before (-168 h) and one week after (+168 h) relative to the number of rideshare trips. Separate analyses assessed assaults occurring at bars and restaurants.

RESULTS

From 2017-2018, there were 47,124 nighttime assaults in the 262 taxi zones. There were 2482 taxi zone-hours at a bar and 693 taxi zone-hours at a restaurant that contained at least one nighttime assault. Ridesharing was positively associated with nighttime assaults at bars (OR: 1.050; 95% CI: 1.002-1.100) but not at restaurants (OR: 1.049; 95% CI: 0.943-1.168).

CONCLUSIONS

Additional ridesharing trips are associated with increased incidence of assaults at on-premise alcohol outlets in NYC at the precise hour and taxi zone of trip origins.

Stress and Distress during the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Role of Neighborhood Context

Neighborhoods play a central role in health and mental health, particularly during disasters and crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic. We examined changes in psychological distress following the pandemic, and the potential role of neighborhood conditions among 244 residents of New Orleans, Louisiana. Using modified linear regression models, we assessed associations between neighborhood characteristics and change in psychological distress from before to during the pandemic, testing effect modification by sex and social support. While higher density of offsite alcohol outlets (β = 0.89; 95% CI: 0.52, 1.23), assault rate (β = 0.14; 95% CI: 0.03, 0.24), and walkable streets (β = 0.05; 95% CI: 0.02, 0.07) in neighborhoods were associated with an increase in distress, access to neighborhood parks (β = −0.03; 95% CI: −0.05, −0.01), collective efficacy (β = −0.23; 95% CI: −0.35, −0.09), and homicide rate (β = −1.2; 95% CI: −1.8, −0.6) were associated with reduced distress related to the pandemic. These relationships were modified by sex and social support. Findings revealed the important but complicated relationship between psychological distress and neighborhood characteristics. While a deeper understanding of the neighborhoods’ role in distress is needed, interventions that target neighborhood environments to ameliorate or prevent the residents’ distress may be important not only during crisis situations.

Ride-Hailing and Road Traffic Crashes: A Critical Review

Ride-hailing businesses, including Uber and Lyft, have reshaped road traffic since they first began operating in the United States approximately a decade ago. It follows that ride-hailing may also alter the incidence and distribution of road traffic crash injuries and deaths. The available evidence relating ride-hailing to crashes is critically reviewed in this article. We present a theoretical model that synthesizes the hypothesized mechanisms, and we identify common methodological challenges and suggest priorities for future research. Mixed results have been reported for the overall incidence of road traffic crash injuries and deaths, likely due to heterogeneous impacts on vehicular traffic flow (e.g., increasing the volume of vehicles); on vehicle-, person-, and event-level characteristics (e.g., reducing alcohol-impaired driver crashes); on road-user types (e.g., increasing pedestrian crashes); and on environmental conditions (e.g., reducing crashes most substantially where public transit access is poorest). The lack of a well-developed theory of human mobility and methodological challenges that are common to many ecological studies impede exploration of these sources of moderation. Innovative solutions are required to explicate ride-hailing's heterogeneous impacts, to guide policy that can take advantage of the public health benefits of ride-hailing, and to ensure that research keeps pace with technological advances that continue to reshape road traffic use.

Place-based interventions and the epidemiology of violence prevention

Purpose of review

Violence is a leading cause of death, disability, and health inequity in the United States. This review summarizes the scientific literature on place-based interventions and violence, describes study design challenges, and suggests future directions for this group of interventions.

Recent findings

Violence prevention strategies commonly target high-risk individuals, but recent research has found that place-based interventions are practical, sustainable, and high-impact opportunities that benefit communities at large. This body of work has largely consisted of quasi-experimental studies of land and building place-based interventions and interpersonal violence.

Summary

Current epidemiological evidence suggests that place-based interventions are cost-effective solutions for violence prevention. Future work is needed using mixed methods to better understand their mechanisms of action and to inform implementation efforts. There are opportunities for the broader development of implementation science to bring promising and established place-based interventions to scale and to extend these interventions to other types of violence.

Rideshare Trips and Alcohol-Involved Motor Vehicle Crashes in Chicago

OBJECTIVE

Rideshare companies such as Uber and Lyft have substantially changed transportation markets in the United States and globally. The aim of this study was to examine whether ridesharing is associated with reductions in alcohol-involved crashes.

METHOD

This case-series study used highly spatially and temporally resolved trip-level rideshare data and motor vehicle crash data from the Chicago Data Portal from November 2018 to December 2019. The units of analysis were motor vehicle crashes in Chicago. Events of interest were 962 crashes that police indicated were alcohol involved. The comparison group was 962 non-alcohol-involved crashes that occurred in the same census tract, matched 1:1. The exposure of interest was the density per square mile of rideshare trips that were in progress at the time of the crash, calculated using a kernel density function around the estimated route paths of active trips. A conditional logistic regression compared alcohol involvement to rideshare trip density while adjusting for matching and relevant time-varying covariates (taxi trips, precipitation, temperature, holidays).

RESULTS

Mean rideshare trip density was 69.0 per square mile (SD = 129.7) at the time and location of alcohol-involved crashes and 105.7 per square mile (SD = 192.6) at the time and location of non-alcohol-involved crashes. After controlling for covariates, the conditional logistic regression model identified that a standard deviation increase in rideshare trips per square mile at the crash location was associated with 23% decreased odds that the crash location was alcohol involved (odds ratio = 0.771; 95% confidence interval [0.594, 0.878]).

CONCLUSIONS

Ridesharing may replace motor vehicle trips by alcohol-impaired drivers.

The geographic distribution of retail tobacco outlets in Yogyakarta, Indonesia

INTRODUCTION

Tobacco smoking prevalence in Indonesia is among the highest in the world. Research worldwide identifies that physical access to tobacco through retail outlets is related to increased tobacco smoking. Tobacco outlet density is very high in many Indonesian cities, so tobacco access may contribute to the high prevalence of tobacco use in that country. The aim of this study was to examine distributions of tobacco outlets in one Indonesian city, Yogyakarta, in relation to social and physical environmental conditions.

METHODS

For this cross-sectional ecological study, we virtually audited randomly selected street segments (n = 1099) using Google Street View. The outcome of interest was a count of tobacco advertising banners (indicating the presence of retail outlets). Exposures were physical environmental conditions (scales of main roads, physical decay, presence of schools, mosques, churches) and social conditions measured at the neighbourhood level (concentrated disadvantage, age composition, population density).

RESULTS

Tobacco banners were present on 36.4% of sampled street segments, including 55 (37%) of 147 streets with schools; a total of 1381 banners were identified. Multilevel negative binomial regression models for street segments nested within neighbourhoods found the prevalence of tobacco banners per 100 m was lower near schools (RR = 0.66, 95% CI 0.45, 0.97) and was not associated with other exposure measures.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

Retail tobacco outlets are ubiquitous in Yogyakarta. Although they are relatively less prevalent on streets with schools, the high absolute values and wide spatial distribution means all residents of Yogyakarta are exposed to tobacco outlets.

Changes in Shooting Incidence in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Between March and November 2020

This study uses police department registry data to describe trends in incidence of firearm shootings and deaths in January-November 2020, before and after the closure of nonessential businesses in March, the killing of George Floyd in May, and the partial lifting of containment policies in June.

Trends in US Alcohol Consumption Frequency During the First Wave of the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic

Background

The SARS‐CoV‐2 pandemic created disruptions and stressors which may have influenced alcohol consumption frequency trends. Varying COVID‐19 health burden and alcohol policies may have contributed to different consumption trends between states. The aim of this study is to assess trends in alcohol consumption and moderation by state of residence.

Methods

We examined trends in adult drinking days, during the first wave of the pandemic (March 10 to June 8) using longitudinal data from the Understanding America Study (N = 6,172 unique participants; N = 28,059 observations). Because state mandates were responsive to disease burden, we modeled the interaction of time by COVID‐19 burden, defined as whether the state had the median (or higher) daily incidence of COVID‐19 cases on the survey date, and state random effects. We controlled for individual sociodemographics, perceived personal/familial COVID‐19 burden, mental health symptomology, and risk avoidance.

Results

Drinking days increased throughout the duration (incidence risk ratio [IRR] for drinking per increase in one calendar day = 1.003, 95% CI 1.001, 1.004); trends were heterogeneous by disease burden, with individuals living in states with lower COVID‐19 burden increasing (IRR = 1.005, 95% CI 1.003, 1.007) faster than those living in states with higher COVID‐19 burden (IRR = 1.000, 95% CI 0.998, 1.002). Trends were heterogeneous between states, but there was no evidence of systematic geographic clustering of state trends.

Conclusions

Drinking days increased during the first months of the COVID‐19 pandemic, particularly among residents of states with lower disease burden.

Alcohol-involved motor vehicle crashes and the size and duration of random breath testing checkpoints

OBJECTIVE

Sobriety checkpoints have strong empirical and theoretical support as an intervention to reduce alcohol-involved motor vehicle crashes. The purpose of this study was to examine whether checkpoint size (the number of police officers) and checkpoint duration (the amount of time in operation) affect associations between individual checkpoints and subsequent alcohol-related crash incidence.

METHOD

Queensland Police Service provided latitude-longitude coordinates and date and time data for all breath tests that occurred in Brisbane, Australia, from January 2012 to June 2018. We applied hierarchical cluster analysis to the latitude-longitude coordinates for breath tests, identifying checkpoints as clusters of ≥25 breath tests conducted by ≥3 breath testing devices over a duration of 3 to 8 hours. Generalized linear autoregressive moving average (GLARMA) models related counts of alcohol-involved motor vehicle crashes to the number of checkpoints conducted per week, as well as 1 week prior and 2 weeks prior.

RESULTS

A total of 3420 alcohol-related crashes occurred and 2069 checkpoints were conducted in Brisbane over the 6.5-year (339-week) study period. On average, checkpoints included a mean of 266.0 breath tests (SD = 216.3), 16.4 devices (SD = 13.7), and were 286.3 minutes in duration (SD = 104.2). Each 10 additional checkpoints were associated with a 12% decrease in crash incidence at a lag of 1 week (IRR = 0.88; 95%CI: 0.80, 0.97). We detected no differential associations according to checkpoint size or duration.

CONCLUSIONS

Sobriety checkpoints are associated with fewer alcohol-related motor vehicle crashes for around 1 week. Checkpoint size and duration do not appear to affect this relationship.

Epidemiologic Trends in Fatal and Nonfatal Firearm Injuries in the US, 2009-2017

IMPORTANCE

Firearm injury research in the US has focused on fatal injuries. The incidence and epidemiologic factors associated with nonfatal firearm injuries are less understood.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate estimates of incidence and trends over time of fatal and nonfatal firearm injuries.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

A cross-sectional, ecologic study was conducted using data throughout the US from 2009 to 2017. Data on fatal injuries from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention were combined with national data on emergency department visits for nonfatal firearm injury from the Nationwide Emergency Department (ED) sample. Data analysis was conducted from August 2019 to September 2020.

EXPOSURES

Firearm injuries identified with International Classification of Diseases external cause of injury codes and categorized by intent of injury, age group, and urban-rural location.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Incidence, case fatality rate, and trends over time of firearm injury according to intent, age group, and urban-rural location.

RESULTS

From 2009 to 2017, there was a mean of 85 694 ED visits for nonfatal firearm injury and 34 538 deaths each year. An annual mean of 26 445 deaths (76.6%) occurred outside of the hospital. Assault was the most common overall mechanism (38.9%), followed by unintentional injuries (36.9%) and intentional self-harm (19.6%). Self-harm, which accounted for 21 128 deaths (61.2%), had the highest case fatality rate (89.4%; 95% CI, 88.5%-90.4%), followed by assault (25.9%; 95% CI, 23.7%-28.6%) and legal intervention (23.4%; 95% CI, 21.6%-25.5%). Unintentional injuries were the most common nonfatal injuries (43 729 [51.0%]) and had the lowest case fatality rate (1.2%; 95% CI, 1.1%-1.3%). Self-harm deaths, 87.8% of which occurred outside the hospital, increased in all age groups in both rural and urban areas during the study period and were most common among people aged 55 years and older. The rate of fatal assault injuries was higher in urban than in rural areas (16.6 vs 9.0 per 100 000 per year) and highest among people aged 15 to 34 years (38.6 per 100 000 per year). Rates of unintentional injury were higher in rural than in urban areas (18.5 per 100 000 vs 12.4 per 100 000).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this cross-sectional study, suicide appears to be the most common cause of firearm injury death in the US, and most people who die from suicide never reach the hospital. These findings suggest that assaults and unintentional injuries account for most nonfatal and overall firearm injuries and for most of the injuries that are treated in hospitals.

A comparison and analysis of seven gun law permissiveness scales

BACKGROUND

Due to the differences in the way gun law permissiveness scales were created and speculation about the politically motivated underpinnings of the various scales, there have been questions about their reliability.

METHODS

We compared seven gun law permissiveness scales, varying by type and sources, for an enhanced understanding of the extent to which choice of a gun law permissiveness scale could affect studies related to gun violence outcomes in the United States. Specifically, we evaluated seven different scales: two rankings, two counts, and three scores, arising from a range of sources. We calculated Spearman correlation coefficients for each pair of scales compared. Cronbach's standardized alpha and Guttman's lambda were calculated to evaluate the relative reliability of the scales, and we re-calculated Cronbach's alpha after systematically omitting each scale to assess whether the omitted scale contributed to lower internal consistency between scales. Factor analysis was used to determine single factor loadings and estimates. We also assessed associations between permissiveness of gun laws and total firearm deaths and suicides in multivariable regression analyses.

RESULTS

All pairs of scales were highly correlated (average Spearman's correlation coefficient r = 0.77) and had high relative reliability (Cronbach's alpha = 0.968, Guttman's lambda = 0.975). All scales load onto a single factor. The choice of scale did not meaningfully change the parameter estimates for the associations between permissiveness of gun laws and gun deaths and suicides.

CONCLUSION

Gun law permissiveness scales are highly correlated despite any perceived political agenda, and the choice of gun law permissiveness scale has little effect on study conclusions related to gun violence outcomes.

The feasibility and acceptability of mobile health monitoring for real-time assessment of traumatic injury outcomes

BACKGROUND

Traumatic injuries are a health event that can begin a trajectory towards chronic health and social challenges. Mobile technology-based prevention and treatment interventions have been used to monitor and transform outcomes across a myriad of health conditions, but their potential in long-term injury recovery is unexplored. The goal of this pilot study was to assess the acceptability and feasibility of mobile health monitoring for long-term outcomes in a population of trauma patients with known barriers to health and social care after injury.

METHODS

We re-recruited 25 individuals, 12-36 months after acute hospitalization, from a recently concluded study of psychological outcomes in seriously injured Black men in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. This mixed- methods pilot study was conducted in three phases: (I) qualitative interviews and development of a pilot monitoring platform; (II) a 3-month feasibility trial of mobile monitoring of patient-reported outcomes and biometric data using a wrist-worn commercial fitness monitor (n=18); (III) post-implementation qualitative interviews.

RESULTS

Analysis of data from pre-implementation interviews indicated that the majority of participants used smartphones as a primary means of communicating with their social network and to access the internet. The 90-day pilot trial of mobile monitoring indicated participants' preference text-delivered communication and survey elicitation. Response rates for 12 automated surveys ranged from 84-92%. Twenty-four hours a day adherence to optional biometric monitoring was generally lower than 50% but ranged widely indicating both very low adherence and very high adherence. Four of 25 participants, 2 who had opted for Fitbit monitoring, were lost to follow-up at the end of the 90-day pilot trial. In post-implementation assessments, participants endorsed the acceptability of mobile monitoring highlighting the benefit of its convenience and flexibility over in-person outcome monitoring. Participants also perceived its potential benefit in long-term engagement with health and social services to assist with the challenges they faced when attempting to achieve physical, psychological, social, and financial recovery after hospitalization. These findings were reinforced through qualitative interviews which highlighted, in addition to acceptability, the perceived value of self-monitoring through the use of wearable devices to track health data like physical activity and sleep.

CONCLUSIONS

This study indicates the feasibility and acceptability of mobile health monitoring used to examine long-term injury sequalae. Future research may leverage this novel strategy, refining its application to address current limitations in the reliability and accuracy of commercially available wearable technology, relative costs and benefits of different mobile data collection strategies, integration within current clinical paradigms and generalizability across injured populations and socio-ecological environments.

Firearm Homicide Incidence, Within-state Firearm Laws, and Interstate Firearm Laws in US Counties

BACKGROUND

Firearm homicides occur less frequently in US states with more firearm control laws. However, firearms are easily transported across state lines, and laws in one location may affect firearm violence in another. This study examined associations between within-state firearm laws and firearm homicide while accounting for interference from laws in other nearby states.

METHODS

The units of analysis were 3,107 counties in the 48 contiguous US states, arrayed in 15 yearly panels for 2000 to 2014 (n = 46,605). The dependent measure was firearm homicides accessed from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Compressed Mortality Data. The main independent measures were counts of firearm laws and the proportion of laws within categories (e.g., background checks, child access prevention laws). We calculated these measures for interstate laws using a geographic gravity function between county centroids. Bayesian conditional autoregressive Poisson models related within-state firearm laws and interstate firearm laws to firearm homicides.

RESULTS

There were 172,726 firearm homicides in the included counties over the 15 years. States had between 3 and 100 firearm laws. Within-state firearm laws (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 0.995, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.992, 0.997) and interstate firearm laws (IRR = 0.993, 95% CI = 0.990, 0.996) were independently associated with fewer firearm homicides, and associations for within-state laws were strongest where interstate laws were weakest.

CONCLUSIONS

Additional firearm laws are associated with fewer firearm homicides both within the states where the laws are enacted and elsewhere in the United States. Interference from interstate firearm laws may bias associations for studies of within-state laws and firearm homicide.

The unknown denominator problem in population studies of disease frequency

Problems related to unknown or imprecisely measured populations at risk are common in epidemiologic studies of disease frequency. The size of the population at risk is typically conceptualized as a denominator to be used in combination with a count of disease cases (a numerator) to calculate incidence or prevalence. However, the size of the population at risk can take other epidemiologic properties in relation to an exposure of interest and the count outcome, including confounding, modification, and mediation. Using spatial ecological studies of injury incidence as an example, we identify and evaluate five approaches that researchers have used to address "unknown denominator problems": ignoring, controlling for a proxy, approximating, controlling by study design, and measuring the population at risk. We present a case example and recommendations for selecting a solution given the data and the hypothesized relationship between an exposure of interest, a count outcome, and the population at risk.

The association between blighted property remediation and domestic crime by alcohol availability

There is increasing evidence that place-based interventions reduce crime and interpersonal violence in urban settings. However, evidence concerning the impacts of these neighborhood interventions on domestic crime (crime between intimate partners, family, or household members) is inconclusive. We used data from a New Orleans, Louisiana, place-based blighted property remediation intervention to test the hypothesis that the intervention was associated with changes in domestic crime. Because there is evidence that alcohol availability is related to domestic crime, we also assessed whether this association was moderated by alcohol outlet density. We assessed overall associations using a difference-in-difference approach and assessed moderation using a triple-difference approach. The analytic sample consisted of 204 remediated lots and 612 non-remediated matched control lots over 84 months (2011-2017), for a total of 68,544 lot-months. In difference-in-differences analyses, the place-based intervention was associated with additional domestic crime incidence (β = 0.311, 95% CI: 0.016, 0.605; p = 0.039). In triple-difference analyses, on-premise bar density modified this association (β = -0.119, 95%CI: -0.147, -0.092; p < 0.001): in areas with higher bar density, increases in domestic crime were lower near remediated lots compared with control lots. Place-based interventions to reduce blighted properties may have contributed to fewer domestic crime incidents in areas with more bars.

Alcohol Industry vs. Public Health Presentations at Judicial Reviews of Liquor Licence Applications in Australia

Greater densities of alcohol outlets are associated with greater incidence of alcohol-related harms. In Australia, public health advocates aiming to limit alcohol availability expend significant energy objecting to new outlets in licensing and planning hearings. This study identifies and reviews the key scientific arguments put forward by industry and public health representatives in liquor and planning hearings to determine the factors that contribute to decisions by the presiding authority and to identify ways forward for researchers wishing to facilitate harm minimisation through these regulatory forums. Scientific evidence presented in 23 cases from Victoria, New South Wales and Western Australia between 2010 and 2018 were assessed using directed content analysis. Cases were identified through the AustLii and Westlaw online databases. The full transcripts of two cases that were identified as representative of the scientific arguments presented in other included cases were also reviewed. Four main arguments that industry used during hearings were identified-causal inference, non-linearities, differentiation and risk mitigation. These arguments were used across many included hearings and raised fundamental questions that public health evidence was often ill-equipped to respond to. The overall success of industry arguments in liquor and planning hearings highlighted the challenges of applying epidemiological evidence to individual case studies. These findings have particular implications and will be of use for researchers and public health experts participating in future licensing hearings, especially those wishing to prevent alcohol-related harm through regulatory mechanisms such as state licensing authorities (i.e. courts).

Firearm laws and illegal firearm flow between US states

BACKGROUND

Considerable variation in firearm legislation exists. Prior studies show an association between stronger state laws and fewer firearm deaths. We hypothesized that firearms would flow from states with weaker laws to states with stronger laws based on proximity and population.

METHODS

Crime gun trace data from 2015 to 2017 was accessed from the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives and compared with the count and composition of firearm legislation in 2015 among the contiguous 48 states. Additional independent variables included population, median household income, distance, and presence or absence of a shared border. We used Exponential Random Graph Models to identify predictors of traced firearm transfers between origin and destination states.

RESULTS

After controlling for network structure, firearm laws in origin states were associated with fewer traced firearm transfers (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 0.88; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.83-0.93; p < 0.001). Conversely, more firearm laws in destination states were associated with more traced firearm transfers (IRR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.06-1.15; p < 0.001). Larger population at the origin was associated with increased transfers (IRR, 1.38; 95%CI, 1.27-1.50; p < 0.001), as was larger population at the destination state (IRR, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.35-1.56; p < 0.001). Greater distance was associated with fewer transfers (for each 1,000 km; IRR, 0.35; 95% CI, 0.27-0.46; p < 0.001), and transfers were greater between adjacent states (IRR, 2.49; 95% CI, 1.90-3.27; p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

State firearm legislation has a significant impact on gun trafficking even after controlling for network structure. States with stricter firearm legislation are negatively impacted by states with weaker regulations, as crime guns flow from out-of-state.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Epidemiologic, level III.

Ridesharing and motor vehicle crashes: a spatial ecological case-crossover study of trip-level data

BACKGROUND

Ridesharing services (eg, Uber, Lyft) have facilitated over 11 billion trips worldwide since operations began in 2010, but the impacts of ridesharing on motor vehicle injury crashes are largely unknown.

- METHODS

This spatial ecological case-cross over used highly spatially and temporally resolved trip-level rideshare data and incident-level injury crash data for New York City (NYC) for 2017 and 2018. The space-time units of analysis were NYC taxi zone polygons partitioned into hours. For each taxi zone-hour we calculated counts of rideshare trip origins and rideshare trip destinations. Case units were taxi zone-hours in which any motor vehicle injury crash occurred, and matched control units were the same taxi zone from 1 week before (-168 hours) and 1 week after (+168 hours) the case unit. Conditional logistic regression models estimated the odds of observing a crash (separated into all injury crashes, motorist injury crashes, pedestrian injury crashes, cyclist injury crashes) relative to rideshare trip counts. Models controlled for taxi trips and other theoretically relevant covariates (eg, precipitation, holidays).

RESULTS

Each additional 100 rideshare trips originating within a taxi zone-hour was associated with 4.6% increased odds of observing any injury crash compared with the control taxi zone-hours (OR=1.046; 95% CI 1.032 to 1.060). Associations were detected for motorist injury and pedestrian injury crashes, but not cyclist injury crashes. Findings were substantively similar for analyses conducted using trip destinations as the exposure of interest.

CONCLUSIONS

Ridesharing contributes to increased injury burden due to motor vehicle crashes, particularly for motorist and pedestrian injury crashes at trip nodes.

A global analysis of urban design types and road transport injury: an image processing study

BACKGROUND

Death and injury due to motor vehicle crashes is the world's fifth leading cause of mortality and morbidity. City and urban designs might play a role in mitigating the global burden of road transport injury to an extent that has not been captured by traditional safe system approaches. We aimed to determine the relationship between urban design and road trauma across the globe.

METHODS

Applying a combined convolutional neural network and graph-based approach, 1692 cities capturing one third of the world's population were classified into types based on urban design characteristics represented in sample maps. Associations between identified city types, characteristics contained within sample maps, and the burden of road transport injury as measured by disability adjusted life-years were estimated through univariate and multivariate analyses, controlling for the influence of economic activity.

FINDINGS

Between Mar 1, 2017, and Dec 24, 2018, nine global city types based on a final sample of 1632 cities were identified. Burden of road transport injury was an estimated two-times higher (risk ratio 2·05, 95% CI 1·84-2·27) for the poorest performing city type compared with the best performing city type, culminating in an estimated loss of 8·71 (8·08-9·25) million disability-adjusted life-years per year attributable to suboptimal urban design. City types that featured a greater proportion of railed public transport networks combined with dense road networks characterised by smaller blocks showed the lowest rates of road traffic injury.

INTERPRETATION

This study highlights the important role that city and urban design plays in mitigating road transport injury burden at a global scale. It is recommended that road and transport safety efforts promote urban design that features characteristics inherent in identified high-performance city types including higher density road infrastructure and high rates of public transit.

FUNDING

See acknowledgments.

As Violence Unfolds: A Space-Time Study of Situational Triggers of Violent Victimization among Urban Youth

OBJECTIVES

This study clarifies three important issues regarding situational or opportunity theories of victimization: 1) whether engaging in risk activities triggers violent assault during specific, often fleeting moments, 2) how environmental settings along individuals' daily paths affect their risk of violent assault, and 3) whether situational triggers have differential effects on violent assault during the day versus night.

METHODS

Using an innovative GIS-assisted interview technique, 298 young male violent assault victims in Philadelphia, PA described their activity paths over the course of the day of being assaulted. Case-crossover analyses compared each subject's exposure status at the time of assault with his own statuses earlier in the day (stratified by daytime and nighttime).

RESULTS

Being at an outdoor/public space, conducting unstructured activities, and absence of guardians increase the likelihood of violent victimization at a fine spatial-temporal scale at both daytime and nighttime. Yet, the presence of friends and environmental characteristics have differential effects on violent victimization at daytime versus nighttime. Moreover, individual risk activities appeared to exhibit better predictive performance than did environmental characteristics in our space-time situational analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates the value of documenting how individuals navigate their daily activity space, and ultimately advances our understanding of youth violence from a real-time, real-life standpoint.