Estimates of Quality-Adjusted Life-Year Loss for Injuries in the United States

PURPOSE

The goal of this study is to develop an approach for estimating nationally representative quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) loss from injury and poisoning conditions using data collected in the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS).

METHODS

This study uses data from the 2002-2015 NHIS and MEPS surveys. Injuries were identified in the MEPS medical events file and through self-reporting of medical conditions. We restricted our model to 163,731 adults, for which we predict a total of 294,977 EQ-5D scores using responses to the self-administered questionnaire. EQ-5D scores were modeled using age, sex, comorbidities, and binary indicators of the presence and duration of injury at the time of the health status questionnaire. These models consider nonlinearity over time during the first 3 y following the injury event.

RESULTS

Injuries are identified in MEPS using medical events that provide a reasonable proxy for the date of injury occurrence. Health-related quality of life (HRQL) decrements can be estimated using binary indicators of injury during different time periods. When grouped into 29 injury categories, most categories were statistically significant predictors of HRQL scores in the first year after injury. For these groups of injuries, mean first-year QALY loss estimates range from 0.005 (sprains and strains of joints and adjacent muscles, n = 7067) to 0.109 (injury to nerves and spinal cord, n = 71). Fewer estimates are significant in the second and third years after injury, which may reflect a return to baseline HRQL.

CONCLUSION

This research presents both a framework for estimating QALY loss for short-lived medical conditions and nationally representative, community-based HRQL scores associated with a wide variety of injury and poisoning conditions.

HIGHLIGHTS

This research provides a catalog of nationally representative, preference-based EQ-5D score decrements associated with surviving a large set of injuries, based on patient-reported health status.Mean first-year QALY loss estimates range from 0.005 (sprains and strains of joints and adjacent muscles, n = 7067) to 0.109 (injury to nerves and spinal cord, n = 71).This article presents a novel methodology for assessing quality-of-life impacts for acute conditions by calculating the time elapsed between injury and health status elicitation. Researchers may explore adapting these methods to study other short-lived conditions and health states, such as COVID-19 or chemotherapy.

Emergency Department Pediatric Readiness and Short-term and Long-term Mortality Among Children Receiving Emergency Care

IMPORTANCE

Emergency departments (EDs) with high pediatric readiness (coordination, personnel, quality improvement, safety, policies, and equipment) are associated with lower mortality among children with critical illness and those admitted to trauma centers, but the benefit among children with more diverse clinical conditions is unknown.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the association between ED pediatric readiness, in-hospital mortality, and 1-year mortality among injured and medically ill children receiving emergency care in 11 states.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This is a retrospective cohort study of children receiving emergency care at 983 EDs in 11 states from January 1, 2012, through December 31, 2017, with follow-up for a subset of children through December 31, 2018. Participants included children younger than 18 years admitted, transferred to another hospital, or dying in the ED, stratified by injury vs medical conditions. Data analysis was performed from November 1, 2021, through June 30, 2022.

EXPOSURE

ED pediatric readiness of the initial ED, measured through the weighted Pediatric Readiness Score (wPRS; range, 0-100) from the 2013 National Pediatric Readiness Project assessment.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality, with a secondary outcome of time to death to 1 year among children in 6 states.

RESULTS

There were 796 937 children, including 90 963 (11.4%) in the injury cohort (mean [SD] age, 9.3 [5.8] years; median [IQR] age, 10 [4-15] years; 33 516 [36.8%] female; 1820 [2.0%] deaths) and 705 974 (88.6%) in the medical cohort (mean [SD] age, 5.8 [6.1] years; median [IQR] age, 3 [0-12] years; 329 829 [46.7%] female, 7688 [1.1%] deaths). Among the 983 EDs, the median (IQR) wPRS was 73 (59-87). Compared with EDs in the lowest quartile of ED readiness (quartile 1, wPRS of 0-58), initial care in a quartile 4 ED (wPRS of 88-100) was associated with 60% lower in-hospital mortality among injured children (adjusted odds ratio, 0.40; 95% CI, 0.26-0.60) and 76% lower mortality among medical children (adjusted odds ratio, 0.24; 95% CI, 0.17-0.34). Among 545 921 children followed to 1 year, the adjusted hazard ratio of death in quartile 4 EDs was 0.59 (95% CI, 0.42-0.84) for injured children and 0.34 (95% CI, 0.25-0.45) for medical children. If all EDs were in the highest quartile of pediatric readiness, an estimated 288 injury deaths (95% CI, 281-297 injury deaths) and 1154 medical deaths (95% CI, 1150-1159 medical deaths) may have been prevented.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

These findings suggest that children with injuries and medical conditions treated in EDs with high pediatric readiness had lower mortality during hospitalization and to 1 year.

Household income and maternal education in early childhood and activity-limiting chronic health conditions in late childhood: findings from birth cohort studies from six countries

BACKGROUND

We examined absolute and relative relationships between household income and maternal education during early childhood (<5 years) with activity-limiting chronic health conditions (ALCHC) during later childhood in six longitudinal, prospective cohorts from high-income countries (UK, Australia, Canada, Sweden, Netherlands, USA).

METHODS

Relative inequality (risk ratios, RR) and absolute inequality (Slope Index of Inequality) were estimated for ALCHC during later childhood by maternal education categories and household income quintiles in early childhood. Estimates were adjusted for mother ethnicity, maternal age at birth, child sex and multiple births, and were pooled using meta-regression.

RESULTS

Pooled estimates, with over 42 000 children, demonstrated social gradients in ALCHC for high maternal education versus low (RR 1.54, 95% CI 1.28 to 1.85) and middle education (RR 1.24, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.38); as well as for high household income versus lowest (RR 1.90, 95% CI 1.66 to 2.18) and middle quintiles (RR 1.34, 95% CI 1.17 to 1.54). Absolute inequality showed decreasing ALCHC in all cohorts from low to high education (range: -2.85% Sweden, -13.36% Canada) and income (range: -1.8% Sweden, -19.35% Netherlands).

CONCLUSION

We found graded relative risk of ALCHC during later childhood by maternal education and household income during early childhood in all cohorts. Absolute differences in ALCHC were consistently observed between the highest and lowest maternal education and household income levels across cohort populations. Our results support a potential role for generous, universal financial and childcare policies for families during early childhood in reducing the prevalence of activity limiting chronic conditions in later childhood.

Patterns of heavy drinking behaviour over age and birth cohorts among Chinese men: a Markov model

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the age patterns and cohort trends in heavy drinking among Chinese men from 1993 to 2011 and to project the future burden of heavy drinking through 2027.

DESIGN

We constructed a Markov cohort model that simulates age-specific heavy drinking behaviours for a series of cohorts of Chinese men born between 1922 and 1993 and fitted the model to longitudinal data on drinking patterns (1993-2015). We projected male prevalence of heavy drinking from 2015 through 2027 with and without modification of heavy drinking behaviours.

PARTICIPANTS

A cohort of Chinese men who were born between 1922 and 1993.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Outcomes included age-specific and birth cohort-specific rates of initiating, quitting and reinitiating heavy drinking from 1993 through 2011, projected prevalence of heavy drinking from 2015 to 2027, and total reduction in prevalence and total averted deaths with hypothetical elimination of heavy drinking behaviours.

RESULTS

Across multiple birth cohorts, middle-aged Chinese men have consistently higher risks of starting and resuming heavy drinking and lower probabilities of quitting their current heavy drinking than men in other age groups. From 1993 to 2011, the risk of starting or resuming heavy drinking continued to decrease over generations. Our model projected that the prevalence of heavy drinking among Chinese men will decrease by 33% (95% CI 11.5% to 54.6%) between 2015 and the end of 2027. Complete elimination of or acceptance of a change in heavy drinking behaviours among Chinese men could accelerate this decrease by 12 percentage points (95% CI 7.8 to 18.2) and avert 377 000 deaths (95% CI 228 000 to 577 000) in total from 2015 to 2027.

CONCLUSION

Heavy drinking prevalence will continue to decrease through 2027 if current age-specific and birth cohort-specific patterns of starting, quitting and resuming heavy drinking continue. Effective mitigation policy should consider age-specific patterns in heavy drinking behaviours to further reduce the burden of heavy drinking.

Cost-effectiveness of Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy versus Radiofrequency Ablation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Markov Modeling Study

Purpose To assess the cost-effectiveness of stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) versus radiofrequency ablation (RFA) for patients with inoperable localized hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who are eligible for both SBRT and RFA. Materials and Methods A decision-analytic Markov model was developed for patients with inoperable, localized HCC who were eligible for both RFA and SBRT to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the following treatment strategies: (a) SBRT as initial treatment followed by SBRT for local progression (SBRT-SBRT), (b) RFA followed by RFA for local progression (RFA-RFA), (c) SBRT followed by RFA for local progression (SBRT-RFA), and (d) RFA followed by SBRT for local progression (RFA-SBRT). Probabilities of disease progression, treatment characteristics, and mortality were derived from published studies. Outcomes included health benefits expressed as discounted quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), costs in U.S. dollars, and cost-effectiveness expressed as an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the robustness of the findings. Results In the base case, SBRT-SBRT yielded the most QALYs (1.565) and cost $197 557. RFA-SBRT yielded 1.558 QALYs and cost $193 288. SBRT-SBRT was not cost-effective, at $558 679 per QALY gained relative to RFA-SBRT. RFA-SBRT was the preferred strategy, because RFA-RFA and SBRT-RFA were less effective and more costly. In all evaluated scenarios, SBRT was preferred as salvage therapy for local progression after RFA. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100 000 per QALY gained, RFA-SBRT was preferred in 65.8% of simulations. Conclusion SBRT for initial treatment of localized, inoperable HCC is not cost-effective. However, SBRT is the preferred salvage therapy for local progression after RFA. ^© RSNA, 2017 Online supplemental material is available for this article.