Medical practice variation: public reporting a first necessary step to spark change

From previous work, we know that medical practice varies widely, and that unwarranted variation signals low value for patients and society. We also know that public reporting helps to create awareness of the need for quality improvement. Despite the availability of rich data, most Western countries have no routine surveillance of the geographic distribution of utilization, costs, and outcomes of healthcare, including trends in variation over time. This paper highlights the role of transparent public reporting as a necessary first step to spark change and reduce unwarranted variation. Two recent examples of public reporting are presented to illustrate possible ways to reduce unwarranted variation and improve care. We conclude by introducing the Value Improvement Cycle, which underscores that reporting is only a necessary first step, and suggests a path toward developing a multi-stakeholder approach to change.

Behavioral Risk Factors and Regional Variation in Cardiovascular Health Care and Death

INTRODUCTION

Reducing the burden of death from cardiovascular disease includes risk factor reduction and medical interventions.

METHODS

This was an observational analysis at the hospital service area (HSA) level, to examine regional variation and relationships between behavioral risks, health services utilization, and cardiovascular disease mortality (the outcome of interest). HSA-level prevalence of cardiovascular disease behavioral risks (smoking, poor diet, physical inactivity) were calculated from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System; HSA-level rates of stress tests, diagnostic cardiac catheterization, and revascularization from a statewide multi-payer claims data set from Maine in 2013 (with 606,260 patients aged ≥35 years), and deaths from state death certificate data. Analyses were done in 2016.

RESULTS

There were marked differences across 32 Maine HSAs in behavioral risks: smoking (12.4%-28.6%); poor diet (43.6%-73.0%); and physical inactivity (16.4%-37.9%). After adjustment for behavioral risks, rates of utilization varied by HSA: stress tests (28.2-62.4 per 1,000 person-years, coefficient of variation=17.5); diagnostic cardiac catheterization (10.0-19.8 per 1,000 person-years, coefficient of variation=17.3); and revascularization (4.6-6.2 per 1,000 person-years; coefficient of variation=9.1). Strong HSA-level associations between behavioral risk factors and cardiovascular disease mortality were observed: smoking (R²=0.52); poor diet (R²=0.38); and physical inactivity (R²=0.35), and no association between revascularization and cardiovascular disease mortality after adjustment for behavioral risk factors (R²=0.02). HSA-level behavioral risk factors were also strongly associated with all-cause mortality: smoking (R²=0.57); poor diet (R²=0.49); and physical inactivity (R²=0.46).

CONCLUSIONS

There is substantial regional variation in behavioral risks and cardiac utilization. Behavioral risk factors are associated with cardiovascular disease mortality regionally, whereas revascularization is not. Efforts to reduce cardiovascular disease mortality in populations should focus on prevention efforts targeting modifiable risk factors.

A population health approach to reducing observational intensity bias in health risk adjustment: cross sectional analysis of insurance claims

OBJECTIVE

To compare the performance of two new approaches to risk adjustment that are free of the influence of observational intensity with methods that depend on diagnoses listed in administrative databases.

SETTING

Administrative data from the US Medicare program for services provided in 2007 among 306 US hospital referral regions.

DESIGN

Cross sectional analysis.

PARTICIPANTS

20% sample of fee for service Medicare beneficiaries residing in one of 306 hospital referral regions in the United States in 2007 (n = 5,153,877).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The effect of health risk adjustment on age, sex, and race adjusted mortality and spending rates among hospital referral regions using four indices: the standard Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services--Hierarchical Condition Categories (HCC) index used by the US Medicare program (calculated from diagnoses listed in Medicare's administrative database); a visit corrected HCC index (to reduce the effects of observational intensity on frequency of diagnoses); a poverty index (based on US census); and a population health index (calculated using data on incidence of hip fractures and strokes, and responses from a population based annual survey of health from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention).

RESULTS

Estimated variation in age, sex, and race adjusted mortality rates across hospital referral regions was reduced using the indices based on population health, poverty, and visit corrected HCC, but increased using the standard HCC index. Most of the residual variation in age, sex, and race adjusted mortality was explained (in terms of weighted R2) by the population health index: R2=0.65. The other indices explained less: R2=0.20 for the visit corrected HCC index; 0.19 for the poverty index, and 0.02 for the standard HCC index. The residual variation in age, sex, race, and price adjusted spending per capita across the 306 hospital referral regions explained by the indices (in terms of weighted R2) were 0.50 for the standard HCC index, 0.21 for the population health index, 0.12 for the poverty index, and 0.07 for the visit corrected HCC index, implying that only a modest amount of the variation in spending can be explained by factors most closely related to mortality. Further, once the HCC index is visit corrected it accounts for almost none of the residual variation in age, sex, and race adjusted spending.

CONCLUSION

Health risk adjustment using either the poverty index or the population health index performed substantially better in terms of explaining actual mortality than the indices that relied on diagnoses from administrative databases; the population health index explained the majority of residual variation in age, sex, and race adjusted mortality. Owing to the influence of observational intensity on diagnoses from administrative databases, the standard HCC index over-adjusts for regional differences in spending. Research to improve health risk adjustment methods should focus on developing measures of risk that do not depend on observation influenced diagnoses recorded in administrative databases.

Understanding of regional variation in the use of surgery

The use of common surgical procedures varies widely across regions. Differences in illness burden, diagnostic practices, and patient attitudes about medical intervention explain only a small degree of regional variation in surgery rates. Evidence suggests that surgical variation results mainly from differences in physician beliefs about the indications for surgery, and the extent to which patient preferences are incorporated into treatment decisions. These two components of clinical decision making help to explain the so-called surgical signatures of specific procedures, and why some consistently vary more than others. Variation in clinical decision making is, in turn, affected by broad environmental factors, including technology diffusion, supply of specialists, local training frameworks, financial incentives, and regulatory factors, which vary across countries. Better scientific evidence about the comparative effectiveness of surgical and non-surgical interventions could help to mitigate regional variation, but broader dissemination of shared decision aids will be essential to reduce variation in preference-sensitive disorders.

Observational intensity bias associated with illness adjustment: cross sectional analysis of insurance claims

OBJECTIVE

To determine the bias associated with frequency of visits by physicians in adjusting for illness, using diagnoses recorded in administrative databases.

SETTING

Claims data from the US Medicare program for services provided in 2007 among 306 US hospital referral regions.

DESIGN

Cross sectional analysis.

PARTICIPANTS

20% sample of fee for service Medicare beneficiaries residing in the United States in 2007 (n=5,153,877).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The effect of illness adjustment on regional mortality and spending rates using standard and visit corrected illness methods for adjustment. The standard method adjusts using comorbidity measures based on diagnoses listed in administrative databases; the modified method corrects these measures for the frequency of visits by physicians. Three conventions for measuring comorbidity are used: the Charlson comorbidity index, Iezzoni chronic conditions, and hierarchical condition categories risk scores.

RESULTS

The visit corrected Charlson comorbidity index explained more of the variation in age, sex, and race mortality across the 306 hospital referral regions than did the standard index (R(2)=0.21 v 0.11, P<0.001) and, compared with sex and race adjusted mortality, reduced regional variation, whereas adjustment using the standard Charlson comorbidity index increased it. Although visit corrected and age, sex, and race adjusted mortality rates were similar in hospital referral regions with the highest and lowest fifths of visits, adjustment using the standard index resulted in a rate that was 18% lower in the highest fifth (46.4 v 56.3 deaths per 1000, P<0.001). Age, sex, and race adjusted spending as well as visit corrected spending was more than 30% greater in the highest fifth of visits than in the lowest fifth, but only 12% greater after adjustment using the standard index. Similar results were obtained using the Iezzoni and the hierarchical condition categories conventions for measuring comorbidity.

CONCLUSION

The rates of visits by physicians introduce substantial bias when regional mortality and spending rates are adjusted for illness using comorbidity measures based on the observed number of diagnoses recorded in Medicare's administrative database. Adjusting without correction for regional variation in visit rates tends to make regions with high rates of visits seem to have lower mortality and lower costs, and vice versa. Visit corrected comorbidity measures better explain variation in age, sex, and race mortality than observed measures, and reduce observational intensity bias.

Fewer hospitalizations result when primary care is highly integrated into a continuing care retirement community

Meeting the medical and social needs of elderly people is likely to be costly, disruptive, and at odds with personal preferences if efforts to do so are not well coordinated. We compared two different models of primary care in four different continuing care retirement communities. In the first model, used in one community, the physicians and two part-time nurse practitioners delivered clinical care only at that site, covered all settings within it, and provided all after-hours coverage. In the second model, used in three communities, on-site primary care physician hours were limited; the same physicians also had independent practices outside the retirement community; and after-hours calls were covered by all members of the practices, including physicians who did not practice on site. We found that residents in the first model had two to three times fewer hospitalizations and emergency department visits. Only 5 percent of those who died did so in a hospital, compared to 15 percent at the other sites and 27 percent nationally. These findings provide insight into what is possible when medical care is highly integrated into a residential retirement setting.

Geographic variation in diagnosis frequency and risk of death among Medicare beneficiaries

CONTEXT

Because diagnosis is typically thought of as purely a patient attribute, it is considered a critical factor in risk-adjustment policies designed to reward efficient and high-quality care.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the association between frequency of diagnoses for chronic conditions in geographic areas and case-fatality rate among Medicare beneficiaries.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Cross-sectional analysis of the mean number of 9 serious chronic conditions (cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, coronary artery disease, congestive heart failure, peripheral artery disease, severe liver disease, diabetes with end-organ disease, chronic renal failure, and dementia) diagnosed in 306 hospital referral regions (HRRs) in the United States; HRRs were divided into quintiles of diagnosis frequency. Participants were 5,153,877 fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries in 2007.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Age/sex/race-adjusted case-fatality rates.

RESULTS

Diagnosis frequency ranged across HRRs from 0.58 chronic conditions in Grand Junction, Colorado, to 1.23 in Miami, Florida (mean, 0.90 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 0.89-0.91]; median, 0.87 [interquartile range, 0.80-0.96]). The number of conditions diagnosed was related to risk of death: among patients diagnosed with 0, 1, 2, and 3 conditions the case-fatality rate was 16, 45, 93, and 154 per 1000, respectively. As regional diagnosis frequency increased, however, the case fatality associated with a chronic condition became progressively less. Among patients diagnosed with 1 condition, the case-fatality rate decreased in a stepwise fashion across quintiles of diagnosis frequency, from 51 per 1000 in the lowest quintile to 38 per 1000 in the highest quintile (relative rate, 0.74 [95% CI, 0.72-0.76]). For patients diagnosed with 3 conditions, the corresponding case-fatality rates were 168 and 137 per 1000 (relative rate, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.79-0.84]).

CONCLUSION

Among fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries, there is an inverse relationship between the regional frequency of diagnoses and the case-fatality rate for chronic conditions.

Regional variations in diagnostic practices

BACKGROUND

Current methods of risk adjustment rely on diagnoses recorded in clinical and administrative records. Differences among providers in diagnostic practices could lead to bias.

METHODS

We used Medicare claims data from 1999 through 2006 to measure trends in diagnostic practices for Medicare beneficiaries. Regions were grouped into five quintiles according to the intensity of hospital and physician services that beneficiaries in the region received. We compared trends with respect to diagnoses, laboratory testing, imaging, and the assignment of Hierarchical Condition Categories (HCCs) among beneficiaries who moved to regions with a higher or lower intensity of practice.

RESULTS

Beneficiaries within each quintile who moved during the study period to regions with a higher or lower intensity of practice had similar numbers of diagnoses and similar HCC risk scores (as derived from HCC coding algorithms) before their move. The number of diagnoses and the HCC measures increased as the cohort aged, but they increased to a greater extent among beneficiaries who moved to regions with a higher intensity of practice than among those who moved to regions with the same or lower intensity of practice. For example, among beneficiaries who lived initially in regions in the lowest quintile, there was a greater increase in the average number of diagnoses among those who moved to regions in a higher quintile than among those who moved to regions within the lowest quintile (increase of 100.8%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 89.6 to 112.1; vs. increase of 61.7%; 95% CI, 55.8 to 67.4). Moving to each higher quintile of intensity was associated with an additional 5.9% increase (95% CI, 5.2 to 6.7) in HCC scores, and results were similar with respect to laboratory testing and imaging.

CONCLUSIONS

Substantial differences in diagnostic practices that are unlikely to be related to patient characteristics are observed across U.S. regions. The use of clinical or claims-based diagnoses in risk adjustment may introduce important biases in comparative-effectiveness studies, public reporting, and payment reforms.

Inpatient care intensity and patients' ratings of their hospital experiences

The intensity of hospital care provided to chronically ill Medicare patients varies greatly among regions, independent of illness. We examined the associations among hospital care intensity, the technical quality of hospital care, and patients' ratings of their hospital experiences. Greater inpatient care intensity was associated with lower quality scores and lower patient ratings; lower quality scores were associated with lower patient ratings. The common thread linking greater care intensity with lower quality and less favorable patient experiences may be poorly coordinated care.

Variations in hospital resource use for Medicare and privately insured populations in California

The amount of resources used in the care of chronically ill Medicare fee-for-service (FFS) patients varies widely across hospitals. We studied variations across California hospitals in hospital resource use for chronically ill patients covered by Medicare health maintenance organizations (HMOs) and private insurers and found substantial variation in all of the coverage groups studied. Resource-use measures based on Medicare FFS data often reflect patterns evident for other payers. Previous estimates of savings if the most resource-intensive hospitals more closely resembled less resource-intensive hospitals, based on just Medicare FFS spending, could underestimate possible savings when other payers are taken into account.

Extending the P4P agenda, part 2: how Medicare can reduce waste and improve the care of the chronically ill

The care of Americans with severe chronic illnesses is disorganized, unnecessarily costly, and undisciplined by sound clinical science. The federal government should invest in a crash program to improve the scientific basis of managing chronic illness, and the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) should extend its pay-for-performance (P4P) agenda to ensure that within ten years all Americans with severe chronic illnesses have access to accountable health care organizations providing evidence-based prospective care. This paper recommends a strategy for achieving this goal.

Extending the P4P agenda, part 1: how Medicare can improve patient decision making and reduce unnecessary care

The decision to undergo many discretionary medical treatments should be based on informed patient choice. Shared decision making is an effective strategy for achieving this goal. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) should extend its pay-for-performance (P4P) agenda to assure that all Americans have access to a certified shared decision-making process. This paper outlines a strategy to achieve informed patient choice as the standard of practice for preference-sensitive care.

Toward the 'tipping point': decision aids and informed patient choice

Preference-sensitive treatment decisions involve making value trade-offs between benefits and harms that should depend on informed patient choice. There is strong evidence that patient decision aids not only improve decision quality but also prevent the overuse of options that informed patients do not value. This paper discusses progress in implementing decision aids and the policy prospects for reaching a "tipping point" in the adoption of "informed patient choice" as a standard of practice.

End-Of-Life Care At Academic Medical Centers: Implications For Future Workforce Requirements

The expansion of U.S. physician workforce training has been justified on the basis of population growth, technological innovation, and economic expansion. Our analyses found threefold differences in physician full-time-equivalent (FTE) inputs for Medicare cohorts cared for at academic medical centers (AMCs); AMC inputs were highly correlated with the number of physician FTEs per Medicare beneficiary in AMC regions. Given the apparent inefficiency of current physician practices, the supply pipeline is sufficient to meet future needs through 2020, with adoption of the workforce deployment patterns now seen among AMCs and regions dominated by large group practices.

Bereaved Family Member Perceptions of Quality of End-of-Life Care in U.S. Regions with High and Low Usage of Intensive Care Unit Care

OBJECTIVES

To compare the quality of end-of-life care of persons dying in regions of differing practice intensity.

DESIGN

Mortality follow-back survey.

SETTING

Geographic regions in the highest and lowest deciles of intensive care unit (ICU) use.

PARTICIPANTS

Bereaved family member or other knowledgeable informants.

MEASUREMENTS

Unmet needs, concerns, and rating of quality of end-of-life care in five domains (physical comfort and emotional support of the decedent, shared decision-making, treatment of the dying person with respect, providing information and emotional support to family members).

RESULTS

Decedents in high- (n=365) and low-intensity (n=413) hospital service areas (HSAs) did not differ in age, sex, education, marital status, leading causes of death, or the degree to which death was expected, but those in the high-intensity ICU HSAs were more likely to be black and to live in nonrural areas. Respondents in high-intensity HSAs were more likely to report that care was of lower quality in each domain, and these differences were statistically significant in three of five domains. Respondents from high-intensity HSAs were more likely to report inadequate emotional support for the decedent (relative risk (RR)=1.2, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.0-1.4), concerns with shared decision-making (RR=1.8, 95% CI=1.0-2.9), inadequate information about what to expect (RR=1.5, 95% CI=1.3-1.8), and failure to treat the decedent with respect (RR=1.4, 95% CI=1.0-1.9). Overall ratings of the quality of end-of-life care were also significantly lower in high-intensity HSAs.

CONCLUSION

Dying in regions with a higher use of ICU care is not associated with improved perceptions of quality of end-of-life care.

Postmarketing Surveillance Of Medical Devices Using Medicare Claims

The current system of postmarketing surveillance of high-risk medical devices could be improved by taking advantage of the administrative billing data collected by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) to systematically monitor for adverse events that may signal device-related problems. In this paper we use the current concern about the excess risk associated with drug-eluting coronary stents to highlight the strengths and weaknesses of claims data for postmarketing surveillance and propose a pilot collaboration between government, industry, and academe to systematically explore the use of Medicare claims data for this purpose.

Who you are and where you live: how race and geography affect the treatment of medicare beneficiaries

The existence of overall racial and ethnic disparities in health care is well documented, but this average effect masks variation across regions and types of care. Medicare claims data are used to document the extent of these variations. Regions with high racial disparities in one procedure are not more likely to be high in other procedures. Unusually large racial disparities in surgery are often the result of high white rates rather than low black rates. Differences in end-of-life care are driven more by residence than by race. Policies should focus on getting the rates right, rather than solely on racial differences.

Use of Medicare claims data to monitor provider-specific performance among patients with severe chronic illness

This study illustrates that Medicare claims can be used to measure population-based, provider-specific rates of resource inputs, utilization, and Medicare spending. The target populations are seventy-seven cohorts of chronically ill Medicare enrollees who received most of their care from seventy-seven well-known U.S. hospitals. Striking variations are documented in resource inputs and use of services during the last six months of life. The patterns of care seen in the progression of chronic illness correlate highly with care received during previous periods. We believe that hospital-specific measures can be helpful in identifying providers with acceptable quality indices who are also relatively efficient in managing chronic illness.

Practice variations and health care reform: connecting the dots

Unwarranted variation is a ubiquitous feature of U.S. health care. Remedies for variations exist, and several are described in the current collection of Health Affairs papers. Several obstacles stand in the way of widespread adoption of these remedies: (1) a quality agenda that has yet to focus on improving the quality of patient decision making; (2) economic incentives that do not reward exemplary practice; and (3) the poor state of clinical science. Medicare reform legislation creates the opportunity for a demonstration project to redesign health care to address these barriers. We also must grapple with the cultural bias that more care is better and that physicians must know best.

Evaluating The Efficiency Of California Providers In Caring For Patients With Chronic Illnesses

In this paper we compare the relative efficiency of health care providers in managing patients with severe chronic illnesses over fixed periods of time. To minimize the contribution of differences in severity of illness to differences in care management, we evaluate performance over fixed intervals prior to death for patients who died during a five-year period, 1999-2003. Medicare spending, hospital bed and full-time equivalent (FTE) physician inputs, and utilization varied extensively between regions, among hospitals located within a given region, and among hospitals belonging to a given hospital system. The data point to important opportunities to improve efficiency.

Exceptionalism or extravagance? What's different about health care in South Florida

In posing the "puzzle" of Florida exceptionalism, Victor Fuchs raises fundamental questions about Medicare's efficiency and equity. We agree that the higher spending in Florida has little to do with lower mortality rates. However, physicians and hospitals do play a large role in making South Florida different. Miami physicians are not more generous in providing heart, hip, or back surgery, procedures that beneficiaries seeking an active lifestyle might want. Instead, end-of-life care makes Miami truly exceptional: Patients in their last six months of life see more physicians and spend more time in intensive care than is the case virtually anywhere else in the world.

Addressing variations: is there hope for the future?

The papers by Robert Berenson and by Steven Lieberman and colleagues show that variations remain a true challenge for those trying to improve the delivery of health care. Recent clarifications in the understanding of unwarranted variations allow us to address variations in a more logical and manageable fashion. In this Perspective we describe key challenges in addressing variations in the context of these recent clarifications. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) needs to move forward on information-sharing interventions and use demonstrations to pursue innovative strategies to improve the delivery of care through its purchasing power.

Unwarranted variations in the quality of health care: can the law help medicine provide a remedy/remedies?

This Article reviews the essential findings of studies of variations in quality of care according to three categories of care: effective care, preference-sensitive care, and supply-sensitive care. It argues that malpractice liability and informed consent laws should be based on standards of practice that are appropriate to each category of care. In the case of effective care, the legal standard should be that virtually all of those in need should receive the treatment, whether or not it is currently customary to provide it. In the case of preference-sensitive care, the law should recognize the failure of the doctrine of informed consent to assure that patient preferences are respected in choice of treatment; we suggest that the law adopt a standard of informed patient choice in which patients are invited, not merely to consent to a recommended treatment, but to choose the treatment that best advances their preferences. In the case of supply-sensitive care, we suggest that physicians who seek to adopt more conservative patterns of practice be protected under the "respectable minority" or "two schools of thought" doctrine.

The more things change...: the federal government's role in the evaluative sciences

The unfortunate political history of the Agency for Health Care Policy and Research (AHCPR) illustrates the risks to the agencies attempting to evaluate the common practices of medicine and reform clinical decision making to take account of patients' preferences. The evaluative sciences have yet to regain the congressional attention they had when Senators George Mitchell and David Durenberger championed their cause. But the fundamental problems remain, and they are getting worse. Sooner or later Congress will need to revisit the debate over where in the federal government the evaluative sciences should find their base, and questions concerning the role of the National Institutes of Health (NIH) will be raised once again, as they were at the time of AHCPR's founding.

Use of hospitals, physician visits, and hospice care during last six months of life among cohorts loyal to highly respected hospitals in the United States

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the use of healthcare resources during the last six months of life among patients of US hospitals with strong reputations for high quality care in managing chronic illness.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study based on claims data from the US Medicare programme.

PARTICIPANTS

Cohorts receiving most of their hospital care from 77 hospitals that appeared on the 2001 US News and World Report "best hospitals" list for heart and pulmonary disease, cancer, and geriatric services.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Use of healthcare resources in the last six months of life: number of days spent in hospital and in intensive care units; number of physician visits; percentage of patients seeing 10 or more physicians; percentage enrolled in hospice. Terminal care: percentage of deaths occurring in hospital; percentage of deaths occurring in association with a stay in an intensive care unit.

RESULTS

Extensive variation in each measure existed among the 77 hospital cohorts. Days in hospital per decedent ranged from 9.4 to 27.1 (interquartile range 11.6-16.1); days in intensive care units ranged from 1.6 to 9.5 (2.6-4.5); number of physician visits ranged from 17.6 to 76.2 (25.5-39.5); percentage of patients seeing 10 or more physicians ranged from 16.9% to 58.5% (29.4-43.4%); and hospice enrollment ranged from 10.8% to 43.8% (22.0-32.0%). The percentage of deaths occurring in hospital ranged from 15.9% to 55.6% (35.4-43.1%), and the percentage of deaths associated with a stay in intensive care ranged from 8.4% to 36.8% (20.2-27.1%).

CONCLUSION

Striking variation exists in the utilisation of end of life care among US medical centres with strong national reputations for clinical care.

Trends And Geographic Variations In Major Surgery For Degenerative Diseases Of The Hip, Knee, And Spine

Although Medicare rates for surgery to treat degenerative diseases of the hip, knee, and spine are highly variable among hospital referral regions (HRRs), the relative risk for surgery within a region is constant from year to year-a large majority of the variation in surgery in 2000--01 is "explained" by the variation in rates in 1992--93. The within-region constancy in rates for highly variable procedures (the "surgical signature") is illustrated for South Florida HRRs. Involving the patient in choice of treatments (shared decision making) and outcomes research are promising strategies for reducing unwarranted regional variation and local constancy in surgery risk.

Racial, ethnic, and geographic disparities in rates of knee arthroplasty among Medicare patients

BACKGROUND

There are large variations in the use of knee arthroplasty among Medicare enrollees according to race or ethnic group and sex. Are racial and ethnic disparities more pronounced in some regions than in others, and if so, why?

METHODS

We used all Medicare fee-for-service claims data for 1998 through 2000 to determine the incidence of knee arthroplasty according to Hospital Referral Region, sex, and race or ethnic group. A total of 430,726 knee arthroplasties were performed during the three-year study period.

RESULTS

At the national level, the annual rate of knee arthroplasty was higher for non-Hispanic white women (5.97 procedures per 1000) than for Hispanic women (5.37 per 1000) and black women (4.84 per 1000). The rate for non-Hispanic white men (4.82 procedures per 1000) was higher than that for Hispanic men (3.46 per 1000) and more than double that for black men (1.84 per 1000). The rates were significantly lower for black men than for non-Hispanic white men in nearly every region of the country (P<0.05). For the Hispanic population and for black women, racial or ethnic disparities at the national level were due in part to geographic differences rather than to differences in the rates for different racial and ethnic groups within geographic areas. Residential segregation and low income levels contributed to racial and ethnic disparities in arthroplasty rates.

CONCLUSIONS

In the Medicare population, the rate of surgical treatment for osteoarthritis of the knee varies dramatically according to sex, race or ethnic group, and region. These variations underscore the importance of geography and sex in determining racial or ethnic barriers to health care.

Geography and the debate over Medicare reform

Medicare spending varies more than twofold among regions, and the variations persist even after differences in health are corrected for. Higher levels of Medicare spending are due largely to increased use of "supply-sensitive" services--physician visits, specialist consultations, and hospitalizations, particularly for those with chronic illnesses or in their last six months of life. Also, higher spending does not result in more effective care, elevated rates of elective surgery, or better health outcomes. To improve the quality and efficiency of care, we propose a new approach to Medicare reform based on the principles of shared decision making and the promotion of centers of medical excellence. We suggest that our proposal be tested in a major demonstration project

Design of the Spine Patient outcomes Research Trial (SPORT)

SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA

The Spine Patient Outcomes Research Trial (SPORT) was designed to assess the relative efficacy and cost-effectiveness of surgical and nonsurgical approaches to the treatment of common conditions associated with low back and leg pain.

OBJECTIVES

To describe the rationale and design of the SPORT project and to discuss its strengths and limitations.

STUDY DESIGN

Descriptive.

METHODS

First, the authors explain the rationale for embarking on SPORT, i.e., deficiencies in the existing scientific knowledge base for treatment of these conditions. Second, the authors describe the design of SPORT, including topics such as specific aims, participating sites, study population, recruitment and enrollment, study interventions, follow-up, outcomes, statistical analysis, and study governance and organization. Finally, issues that complicate the performance of randomized trials in surgery as they relate to the design and conduct of SPORT are discussed.

RESULTS

The SPORT project is being conducted at 11 clinical centers around the United States. It involves the simultaneous conduct of three multicenter, randomized, controlled clinical trials. The study includes patients with the three most common diagnoses for which spine surgery is performed: intervertebral disc herniation, spinal stenosis, and degenerative spondylolisthesis, and it compares the most commonly used standard surgical and nonsurgical treatments for patients with these diagnoses. By the end of enrollment the authors anticipate a total of 500 patients with intervertebral disc herniation, 370 patients with spinal stenosis, and 300 patients with degenerative spondylolisthesis in the randomized trials. Patients who meet the eligibility criteria but decline to be randomized are invited to participate in an observational cohort study. Patients are being followed for a minimum of 24 months with visits scheduled at 6 weeks and at 3, 6, 12, and 24 months.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this study will provide high-quality scientific evidence to aid clinical decision-making and improve treatment outcomes for these common, costly, and, in some instances, debilitating conditions.

Benchmarking the future generalist workforce

CONTEXT

Previous workforce analyses by the Council on Graduate Medical Education (COGME) have concluded that the United States has too few, or just enough, generalists. However, recent trends suggest that more physicians are entering primary care, raising the possibility of a future surplus.

OBJECTIVE

To project the future supply of generalists relative to future requirements.

DESIGN

We developed a model that projects the supply of generalists into the future on the basis of the annual number of physicians entering and leaving the workforce. We calculated the number of clinically active generalists from the physician master-files of the American Medical Association and American Osteopathic Association. The number of graduating trainees entering the generalist workforce was calculated from the 1999 to 2000 AMA Annual Survey of GME. The number leaving was calculated by using age- and sex-specific rates or physician death and retirement provided by the Bureau of Health Professions.

MEASUREMENTS

Projected per capita number of clinically active generalists to the year 2025, relative to physician requirements suggested by COGME and several regional benchmarks of physician supply.

RESULTS

The supply of generalists is projected to grow from its current level of 69 per 100,000 to nearly 88 per 100,000 by the year 2025. Adjusting for the changing age-sex structure of the physician workforce decreases the "effective" supply to 85 generalists per 100,000. By the year 2025, the effective supply of generalists will exceed COGME's upper estimate of generalist requirements (80 per 100,000), resulting in an excess of about 18,000 full-time equivalent generalists. The future supply of generalists will also exceed most current regional benchmarks of generalist supply.

CONCLUSION

At current levels of training, the supply of generalists will grow substantially and soon exceed several benchmarks for generalist requirements.

Associations among hospital capacity, utilization, and mortality of US Medicare beneficiaries, controlling for sociodemographic factors

OBJECTIVE

To explore whether geographic variations in Medicare hospital utilization rates are due to differences in local hospital capacity, after controlling for socioeconomic status and disease burden, and to determine whether greater hospital capacity is associated with lower Medicare mortality rates.

DATA SOURCES/STUDY SETTING

The study population: a 20 percent sample of 1989 Medicare enrollees. Measures of resources were based on a national small area analysis of 313 Hospital Referral Regions (HRR). Demographic and socioeconomic data were obtained from the 1990 U.S. Census. Measures of local disease burden were developed using Medicare claims files.

STUDY DESIGN

The study was a cross-sectional analysis of the relationship between per capita measures of hospital resources in each region and hospital utilization and mortality rates among Medicare enrollees. Regression techniques were used to control for differences in sociodemographic characteristics and disease burden across areas.

DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS

Data on the study population were obtained from Medicare enrollment (Denominator File) and hospital claims files (MedPAR) and U.S. Census files.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

The per capita supply of hospital beds varied by more than twofold across U.S. regions. Residents of areas with more beds were up to 30 percent more likely to be hospitalized, controlling for ecologic measures of socioeconomic characteristics and disease burden. A greater proportion of the population was hospitalized at least once during the year in areas with more beds; death was also more likely to take place in an inpatient setting. All effects were consistent across racial and income groups. Residence in areas with greater levels of hospital resources was not associated with a decreased risk of death.

CONCLUSIONS

Residence in areas of greater hospital capacity is associated with substantially increased use of the hospital, even after controlling for socioeconomic characteristics and illness burden. This increased use provides no detectable mortality benefit.

Geographic variation in the treatment of acute myocardial infarction: the Cooperative Cardiovascular Project

CONTEXT

Quality indicators for the treatment of acute myocardial infarction include pharmacologic therapy, reperfusion, and smoking cessation advice, but these therapies may not be administered to all patients who could benefit from them.

OBJECTIVE

To assess geographic variation in adherence to quality indicators for treatment of acute myocardial infarction.

DESIGN

Inception cohort using data from the Health Care Financing Administration Cooperative Cardiovascular Project.

SETTING

Acute care hospitals in the United States.

PATIENTS

A total of 186800 Medicare beneficiaries hospitalized for treatment of confirmed acute myocardial infarction from February 1994 through July 1995.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Adherence to quality indicators for pharmacologic therapy, reperfusion, and smoking cessation advice for patients judged to be ideal candidates for these therapies. The mean rates of adherence to these quality indicators for the entire United States were determined, and the 20th and 80th percentiles of the age- and sex-adjusted rates for each of 306 hospital referral regions were contrasted (mean rate [20th-80th percentiles]).

RESULTS

Aspirin was used frequently both during hospitalization (86.2% [82.6%-90.1%]) and at discharge (77.8% [72.5% -83.9%]). Calcium channel blockers were withheld from most patients with impaired left ventricular function (81.9% [73.6%-90.8%]). Lower rates were seen in the use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors at discharge (59.3% [49.2%-69.2%]); reperfusion, using thrombolytic therapy or coronary angioplasty (67.2% [59.8%-75.1%]); prescription of beta-blockers at discharge (49.5% [35.8%-61.5%]); and for smoking cessation advice (41.9% [32.8%-51.3%]).

CONCLUSIONS

Substantial geographic variation exists in the treatment of patients with acute myocardial infarction, and these gaps between knowledge and practice have important consequences. Therapies with proven benefit for AMI are underused despite strong evidence that their use will result in better patient outcomes.

Variation profiles of common surgical procedures

BACKGROUND

Rates of many surgical procedures vary widely across both large and small geographic regions. Although variation in health care use has long been described, few studies have systematically compared variation profiles across surgical procedures. The goal of this study was to examine current patterns of regional variation in the rates of common surgical procedures.

METHODS

The study population consisted of patients enrolled in Medicare in 1995, excluding those enrolled in risk-bearing health maintenance organizations. Patients ranged in age from 65 to 99 years. Using data from hospital discharge abstracts, we calculated rates of 11 common inpatient procedures for each of 306 US hospital referral regions (HRRs). To assess the relative variability of each procedure, we determined the number of low and high outlier regions (HRRs with rates < 50% or > 150% the national average) and the ratio of highest to lowest HRR rates.

RESULTS

Procedures differed markedly in their variability. Rates of hip fracture repair, resection for colorectal cancer, and cholecystectomy varied only 1.9- to 2.9-fold across HRRs (0, 0, and 4 outlier regions, respectively). Coronary artery bypass grafting, transurethral prostatectomy, mastectomy, and total hip replacement had intermediate variation profiles, varying 3.5- to 4.7-fold across regions (8, 10, 16, and 17 outlier regions, respectively). Lower extremity revascularization, carotid endarterectomy, back surgery, and radical prostatectomy had the highest variation profiles, varying 6.5- to 10.1-fold across HRRs (25, 32, 39, and 56 outlier regions, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Although the use of many surgical procedures varies widely across geographic areas, rates of "discretionary" procedures are most variable. To avoid potential overuse or underuse, efforts to increase consensus in clinical decision making should focus on these high variation procedures.

Influence of patient preferences and local health system characteristics on the place of death. SUPPORT Investigators. Study to Understand Prognoses and Preferences for Risks and Outcomes of Treatment

OBJECTIVE

To examine the degree to which variation in place of death is explained by differences in the characteristics of patients, including preferences for dying at home, and by differences in the characteristics of local health systems.

DESIGN

We drew on a clinically rich database to carry out a prospective study using data from the observational phase of the Study to Understand Prognoses and Preferences for Outcomes and Risks of Treatments (SUPPORT component). We used administrative databases for the Medicare program to carry out a national cross-sectional analysis of Medicare enrollees place of death (Medicare component).

SETTING

Five teaching hospitals (SUPPORT); All U.S. Hospital Referral Regions (Medicare).

STUDY POPULATIONS

Patients dying after the enrollment hospitalization in the observational phase of SUPPORT for whom place of death and preferences were known. Medicare beneficiaries who died in 1992 or 1993.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Place of death (hospital vs non-hospital).

RESULTS

In SUPPORT, most patients expressed a preference for dying at home, yet most died in the hospital. The percent of SUPPORT patients dying in-hospital varied by greater than 2-fold across the five SUPPORT sites (29 to 66%). For Medicare beneficiaries, the percent dying in-hospital varied from 23 to 54% across U.S. Hospital Referral Regions (HRRs). In SUPPORT, variations in place of death across site were not explained by sociodemographic or clinical characteristics or patient preferences. Patient level (SUPPORT) and national cross-sectional (Medicare) multivariate models gave consistent results. The risk of in-hospital death was increased for residents of regions with greater hospital bed availability and use; the risk of in-hospital death was decreased in regions with greater nursing home and hospice availability and use. Measures of hospital bed availability and use were the most powerful predictors of place of death across HRRs.

CONCLUSIONS

Whether people die in the hospital or not is powerfully influenced by characteristics of the local health system but not by patient preferences or other patient characteristics. These findings may explain the failure of the SUPPORT intervention to alter care patterns for seriously ill and dying patients. Reforming the care of dying patients may require modification of local resource availability and provider routines.

Are randomized controlled trials controlled? Patient preferences and unblind trials

The most reliable information about treatment effects comes from randomized controlled trials (RCTs). However, the possibility of subtle interactions--for example, between treatment preferences and treatment effects--is generally subordinated in the quest for evidence about main treatment effects. If patient preferences can influence the effectiveness of treatments through poorly understood (psychological) pathways, then RCTs, particularly when unblinded, may wrongly attribute effects solely to a treatment's physiological/pharmacological properties. To interpret the RCT evidence base it is important to know whether any preference effects exist and, if so, by how much they affect outcome. Reliable measurement of these effects is difficult and will require new approaches to the conduct of trials. In view of the fanciful image with which such effects are portrayed and the uncertainties about their true nature and biological mechanisms, existing evidence is unlikely to provide sufficient justification for investment in trials. This is a Catch 22. Until an escape is found we might never know, even approximately, how much of modern medicine is attributable to psychological processes.