Measuring the predictability of life outcomes with a scientific mass collaboration

How predictable are life trajectories? We investigated this question with a scientific mass collaboration using the common task method; 160 teams built predictive models for six life outcomes using data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, a high-quality birth cohort study. Despite using a rich dataset and applying machine-learning methods optimized for prediction, the best predictions were not very accurate and were only slightly better than those from a simple benchmark model. Within each outcome, prediction error was strongly associated with the family being predicted and weakly associated with the technique used to generate the prediction. Overall, these results suggest practical limits to the predictability of life outcomes in some settings and illustrate the value of mass collaborations in the social sciences.

Snoring noise pollution—the need for objective quantification of annoyance, regulatory guidelines and mandatory therapy for snoring

Habitual snoring without episodes of apnea or hypoventilation and without respiratory related arousals is considered to be annoying and without any need for treatment. However, studies seem to suggest an enormous psychosocial impact of annoyance for the bed partner. Apart from subjective questionnaires there still exists no generally accepted mode of measurement that can describe snoring objectively. We therefore adapted methods developed for environmental medicine and established a new snore score using psycho-acoustic parameters. For quantification of snoring noise we conducted nocturnal measurements in 19 habitual snorers. Free-field snore sounds were acquired with two low-cost non-contact microphones and transferred to a PC (sampling frequency 11 kHz). The data were recorded, analysed and stored automatically using a MATLAB script. Following the analysis of sound characteristics and levels, the score was computed from relevant parameters containing the rating level (L(R)), maximum level, two percentile levels for frequent maxima (L(5)S; L(1)) and snoring time. The determined values substantially exceeded the prescribed limits defined by WHO noise guidelines, and mainly affected the equivalent continuous sound exposure level, rating level and the immission standard values of brief noise peaks, whose maximum was exceeded by up to 32 dB(A). The Berlin snore score illustrated the objective acoustic annoyance on a scale from 0 to 100. It allows inter-individual comparison and objectifies the need for therapy. The clinical applicability of evaluating the reduction of snoring after surgical therapy is discussed exemplarily. The presented measuring method was found to be suitable for quantifying snoring noise and can be easily integrated into existing polysomnographic applications. In the case of habitual snoring with objective evidence of psychosocially disturbing acoustic annoyance, health fund providers should assume the costs of mandatory medical therapy.

Dermabrasion of congenital nevocellular nevi: experience in 215 patients

BACKGROUND

The indication for surgical treatment of congenital nevocellular nevi results from aesthetic-cosmetic consideration as well as from the increased risk of melanomatous transformation.

OBJECTIVE

We evaluated the outcome after dermabrasion of congenital nevi of different sizes and treated at different ages.

METHODS

215 patients treated by dermabrasion during the years 1979-1995 were examined at a median interval of 24 months postoperatively.

RESULTS

No postoperative development of malignant melanoma arising from the congenital nevus was seen in any of the patients during the time of follow-up. No serious long-term complications were seen. Hypertrophic scars were seen within parts of the operation field in 14.6%, but in those the cosmetic result was still satisfactory. Permanent reduction of pigmentation to 0-20% as compared with the preoperative status was achieved if treatment was performed within the newborn period. In case of large and giant nevi, permanent removal of pigmentation was better than in small or medium-sized nevi.

CONCLUSION

Dermabrasion proved to be an adequate modality for removal of pigmentation in the therapy of large and giant congenital nevocellular nevi when assessed within 2 years following the procedure. Early treatment is crucial for permanent removal of pigmentation. Long-term effects remain to be adequately monitored.