Measuring the predictability of life outcomes with a scientific mass collaboration

How predictable are life trajectories? We investigated this question with a scientific mass collaboration using the common task method; 160 teams built predictive models for six life outcomes using data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, a high-quality birth cohort study. Despite using a rich dataset and applying machine-learning methods optimized for prediction, the best predictions were not very accurate and were only slightly better than those from a simple benchmark model. Within each outcome, prediction error was strongly associated with the family being predicted and weakly associated with the technique used to generate the prediction. Overall, these results suggest practical limits to the predictability of life outcomes in some settings and illustrate the value of mass collaborations in the social sciences.

The preeminence of ethnic diversity in scientific collaboration

Inspired by the social and economic benefits of diversity, we analyze over 9 million papers and 6 million scientists to study the relationship between research impact and five classes of diversity: ethnicity, discipline, gender, affiliation, and academic age. Using randomized baseline models, we establish the presence of homophily in ethnicity, gender and affiliation. We then study the effect of diversity on scientific impact, as reflected in citations. Remarkably, of the classes considered, ethnic diversity had the strongest correlation with scientific impact. To further isolate the effects of ethnic diversity, we used randomized baseline models and again found a clear link between diversity and impact. To further support these findings, we use coarsened exact matching to compare the scientific impact of ethnically diverse papers and scientists with closely-matched control groups. Here, we find that ethnic diversity resulted in an impact gain of 10.63% for papers, and 47.67% for scientists.

Diversity is believed to raise effectiveness and performance but it contains many aspects. Here the authors studied the relationship between research impact and five classes of diversity and found that ethnic diversity had the strongest correlation with scientific impact.

Detecting reciprocity at a global scale

Reciprocity stabilizes cooperation from the level of microbes all the way up to humans interacting in small groups, but does reciprocity also underlie stable cooperation between larger human agglomerations, such as nation states? Famously, evolutionary models show that reciprocity could emerge as a widespread strategy for achieving international cooperation. However, existing studies have only detected reciprocity-driven cooperation in a small number of country pairs. We apply a new method for detecting mutual influence in dynamical systems to a new large-scale data set that records state interactions with high temporal resolution. Doing so, we detect reciprocity between many country pairs in the international system and find that these reciprocating country pairs exhibit qualitatively different cooperative dynamics when compared to nonreciprocating pairs. Consistent with evolutionary theories of cooperation, reciprocating country pairs exhibit higher levels of stable cooperation and are more likely to punish instances of noncooperation. However, countries in reciprocity-based relationships are also quicker to forgive single acts of noncooperation by eventually returning to previous levels of mutual cooperation. By contrast, nonreciprocating pairs are more likely to exploit each other's cooperation via higher rates of defection. Together, these findings provide the strongest evidence to date that reciprocity is a widespread mechanism for achieving international cooperation.

Simultaneous Mobility

To realize the full potential of mobile multimedia, mobility protocols are needed to handle situations when nodes move while in a multimedia session. Many mobility protocols have been proposed for IP-based networks. In some important cases in using these mobility protocols such as mobile IPv6 with route optimization, a problem can arise when both nodes are mobile and move simultaneously. The problem is that both sides’ binding updates could be lost. A few solutions have recently been proposed. A crucial indicator of the importance of the simultaneous mobility problem, and of its solutions, is the probability of its occurrence. However, previous articles have used only a simple analytical model to estimate the probability of the simultaneous mobility problem occurring. In this article, we present new and more accurate results on the variation of this probability with a number of critical variables.

Techniques for early detection of Alzheimer's disease using spontaneous EEG recordings

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a degenerative disease which causes serious cognitive decline. Studies suggest that effective treatments for AD may be aided by the detection of the disease in its early stages, prior to extensive neuronal degeneration. In this paper, we propose a set of novel techniques which could help to perform this task, and present the results of experiments conducted to evaluate these approaches. The challenge is to discriminate between spontaneous EEG recordings from two groups of subjects: one afflicted with mild cognitive impairment and eventual AD and the other an age-matched control group. The classification results obtained indicate that the proposed methods are promising additions to the existing tools for detection of AD, though further research and experimentation with larger datasets is required to verify their effectiveness.