genRCT: a statistical analysis framework for generalizing RCT findings to real-world population

When evaluating the real-world treatment effect, the analysis based on randomized clinical trials (RCTs) often introduces generalizability bias due to the difference in risk factors between the trial participants and the real-world patient population. This problem of lack of generalizability associated with the RCT-only analysis can be addressed by leveraging observational studies with large sample sizes that are representative of the real-world population. A set of novel statistical methods, termed "genRCT", for improving the generalizability of the trial has been developed using calibration weighting, which enforces the covariates balance between the RCT and observational study. This paper aims to review statistical methods for generalizing the RCT findings by harnessing information from large observational studies that represent real-world patients. Specifically, we discuss the choices of data sources and variables to meet key theoretical assumptions and principles. We introduce and compare estimation methods for continuous, binary, and survival endpoints. We showcase the use of the R package genRCT through a case study that estimates the average treatment effect of adjuvant chemotherapy for the stage 1B non-small cell lung patients represented by a large cancer registry.

Treatment of patients hospitalized for COVID-19 with remdesivir is associated with lower likelihood of 30-day readmission: a retrospective observational study

Aim: This observational study investigated the association between remdesivir treatment during hospitalization for COVID-19 and 30-day COVID-19-related and all-cause readmission across different variants time periods. Patients & methods: Hospitalization records for adult patients discharged from a COVID-19 hospitalization between 1 May 2020 to 30 April 2022 were extracted from the US PINC AI Healthcare Database. Likelihood of 30-day readmission was compared among remdesivir-treated and nonremdesivir-treated patients using multivariable logistic regression models adjusted for age, corticosteroid treatment, Charlson comorbidity index and intensive care unit stay during the COVID-19 hospitalization. Analyses were stratified by maximum supplemental oxygen requirement and variant time period (pre-Delta, Delta and Omicron). Results: Of the 440,601 patients discharged alive after a COVID-19 hospitalization, 248,785 (56.5%) patients received remdesivir. Overall, remdesivir patients had a 30-day COVID-19-related readmission rate of 3.0% and all-cause readmission rate of 6.3% compared with 5.4% and 9.1%, respectively, for patients who did not receive remdesivir during their COVID-19 hospitalization. After adjusting for demographics and clinical characteristics, remdesivir treatment was associated with significantly lower odds of 30-day COVID-19-related readmission (odds ratio 0.60 [95% confidence interval: 0.58-0.62]), and all-cause readmission (0.73 [0.72-0.75]). Significantly lower odds of 30-day readmission in remdesivir-treated patients was observed across all variant time periods. Conclusion: Treating patients hospitalized for COVID-19 with remdesivir is associated with a statistically significant reduction in 30-day COVID-19-related and all-cause readmission across variant time periods. These findings indicate that the clinical benefit of remdesivir may extend beyond the COVID-19 hospitalization.

Racial and Ethnic Disparities in COVID-19 Treatments in the United States

INTRODUCTION

Racial and ethnic disparities in patient outcomes following COVID-19 exist, in part, due to factors involving healthcare delivery. The aim of the study was to characterize disparities in the administration of evidence-based COVID-19 treatments among patients hospitalized for COVID-19.

METHODS

Using a large, US hospital database, initiation of COVID-19 treatments was compared among patients hospitalized for COVID-19 between May 2020 and April 2022 according to patient race and ethnicity. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to examine the effect of race and ethnicity on the likelihood of receiving COVID-19 treatments, stratified by baseline supplemental oxygen requirement.

RESULTS

The identified population comprised 317,918 White, 76,715 Black, 9297 Asian, and 50,821 patients of other or unknown race. There were 329,940 non-Hispanic, 74,199 Hispanic, and 50,622 patients of unknown ethnicity. White patients were more likely to receive COVID-19 treatments, and specifically corticosteroids, compared to Black, Asian, and other patients (COVID-19 treatment: 87% vs. 81% vs. 85% vs. 84%, corticosteroids: 85% vs. 79% vs. 82% vs. 82%). After covariate adjustment, White patients were significantly more likely to receive COVID-19 treatments than Black patients across all levels of supplemental oxygen requirement. No clear trend in COVID-19 treatments according to ethnicity (Hispanic vs. non-Hispanic) was observed.

CONCLUSION

There were important racial disparities in inpatient COVID-19 treatment initiation, including the undertreatment of Black patients and overtreatment of White patients. Our new findings reveal the actual magnitude of this issue in routine clinical practice to clinicians, policymakers, and guideline developers. This is crucial to ensuring equitable and appropriate access to evidence-based therapies.

Effects of empagliflozin on progression of chronic kidney disease: a prespecified secondary analysis from the empa-kidney trial

BACKGROUND

Sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors reduce progression of chronic kidney disease and the risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in a wide range of patients. However, their effects on kidney disease progression in some patients with chronic kidney disease are unclear because few clinical kidney outcomes occurred among such patients in the completed trials. In particular, some guidelines stratify their level of recommendation about who should be treated with SGLT2 inhibitors based on diabetes status and albuminuria. We aimed to assess the effects of empagliflozin on progression of chronic kidney disease both overall and among specific types of participants in the EMPA-KIDNEY trial.

METHODS

EMPA-KIDNEY, a randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial, was conducted at 241 centres in eight countries (Canada, China, Germany, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, the UK, and the USA), and included individuals aged 18 years or older with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 20 to less than 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2, or with an eGFR of 45 to less than 90 mL/min per 1·73 m2 with a urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (uACR) of 200 mg/g or higher. We explored the effects of 10 mg oral empagliflozin once daily versus placebo on the annualised rate of change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR slope), a tertiary outcome. We studied the acute slope (from randomisation to 2 months) and chronic slope (from 2 months onwards) separately, using shared parameter models to estimate the latter. Analyses were done in all randomly assigned participants by intention to treat. EMPA-KIDNEY is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03594110.

FINDINGS

Between May 15, 2019, and April 16, 2021, 6609 participants were randomly assigned and then followed up for a median of 2·0 years (IQR 1·5-2·4). Prespecified subgroups of eGFR included 2282 (34·5%) participants with an eGFR of less than 30 mL/min per 1·73 m2, 2928 (44·3%) with an eGFR of 30 to less than 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2, and 1399 (21·2%) with an eGFR 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2 or higher. Prespecified subgroups of uACR included 1328 (20·1%) with a uACR of less than 30 mg/g, 1864 (28·2%) with a uACR of 30 to 300 mg/g, and 3417 (51·7%) with a uACR of more than 300 mg/g. Overall, allocation to empagliflozin caused an acute 2·12 mL/min per 1·73 m2 (95% CI 1·83-2·41) reduction in eGFR, equivalent to a 6% (5-6) dip in the first 2 months. After this, it halved the chronic slope from -2·75 to -1·37 mL/min per 1·73 m2 per year (relative difference 50%, 95% CI 42-58). The absolute and relative benefits of empagliflozin on the magnitude of the chronic slope varied significantly depending on diabetes status and baseline levels of eGFR and uACR. In particular, the absolute difference in chronic slopes was lower in patients with lower baseline uACR, but because this group progressed more slowly than those with higher uACR, this translated to a larger relative difference in chronic slopes in this group (86% [36-136] reduction in the chronic slope among those with baseline uACR <30 mg/g compared with a 29% [19-38] reduction for those with baseline uACR ≥2000 mg/g; ptrend<0·0001).

INTERPRETATION

Empagliflozin slowed the rate of progression of chronic kidney disease among all types of participant in the EMPA-KIDNEY trial, including those with little albuminuria. Albuminuria alone should not be used to determine whether to treat with an SGLT2 inhibitor.

FUNDING

Boehringer Ingelheim and Eli Lilly.

Impact of primary kidney disease on the effects of empagliflozin in patients with chronic kidney disease: secondary analyses of the EMPA-KIDNEY trial

BACKGROUND

The EMPA-KIDNEY trial showed that empagliflozin reduced the risk of the primary composite outcome of kidney disease progression or cardiovascular death in patients with chronic kidney disease mainly through slowing progression. We aimed to assess how effects of empagliflozin might differ by primary kidney disease across its broad population.

METHODS

EMPA-KIDNEY, a randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial, was conducted at 241 centres in eight countries (Canada, China, Germany, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, the UK, and the USA). Patients were eligible if their estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was 20 to less than 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2, or 45 to less than 90 mL/min per 1·73 m2 with a urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (uACR) of 200 mg/g or higher at screening. They were randomly assigned (1:1) to 10 mg oral empagliflozin once daily or matching placebo. Effects on kidney disease progression (defined as a sustained ≥40% eGFR decline from randomisation, end-stage kidney disease, a sustained eGFR below 10 mL/min per 1·73 m2, or death from kidney failure) were assessed using prespecified Cox models, and eGFR slope analyses used shared parameter models. Subgroup comparisons were performed by including relevant interaction terms in models. EMPA-KIDNEY is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03594110.

FINDINGS

Between May 15, 2019, and April 16, 2021, 6609 participants were randomly assigned and followed up for a median of 2·0 years (IQR 1·5-2·4). Prespecified subgroupings by primary kidney disease included 2057 (31·1%) participants with diabetic kidney disease, 1669 (25·3%) with glomerular disease, 1445 (21·9%) with hypertensive or renovascular disease, and 1438 (21·8%) with other or unknown causes. Kidney disease progression occurred in 384 (11·6%) of 3304 patients in the empagliflozin group and 504 (15·2%) of 3305 patients in the placebo group (hazard ratio 0·71 [95% CI 0·62-0·81]), with no evidence that the relative effect size varied significantly by primary kidney disease (pheterogeneity=0·62). The between-group difference in chronic eGFR slopes (ie, from 2 months to final follow-up) was 1·37 mL/min per 1·73 m2 per year (95% CI 1·16-1·59), representing a 50% (42-58) reduction in the rate of chronic eGFR decline. This relative effect of empagliflozin on chronic eGFR slope was similar in analyses by different primary kidney diseases, including in explorations by type of glomerular disease and diabetes (p values for heterogeneity all >0·1).

INTERPRETATION

In a broad range of patients with chronic kidney disease at risk of progression, including a wide range of non-diabetic causes of chronic kidney disease, empagliflozin reduced risk of kidney disease progression. Relative effect sizes were broadly similar irrespective of the cause of primary kidney disease, suggesting that SGLT2 inhibitors should be part of a standard of care to minimise risk of kidney failure in chronic kidney disease.

FUNDING

Boehringer Ingelheim, Eli Lilly, and UK Medical Research Council.

Remdesivir Reduced Mortality in Immunocompromised Patients Hospitalized for COVID-19 Across Variant Waves: Findings From Routine Clinical Practice

BACKGROUND

Immunocompromised patients are at high risk of severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and death, yet treatment strategies for immunocompromised patients hospitalized for COVID-19 reflect variations in clinical practice. In this comparative effectiveness study, we investigated the effect of remdesivir treatment on inpatient mortality among immunocompromised patients hospitalized for COVID-19 across all variants of concern (VOC) periods.

METHODS

Data for immunocompromised patients hospitalized for COVID-19 between December 2020 and April 2022 were extracted from the US PINC AITM Healthcare Database. Patients who received remdesivir within 2 days of hospitalization were matched 1:1 using propensity score matching to patients who did not receive remdesivir. Additional matching criteria included admission month, age group, and hospital. Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the effect of remdesivir on risk of 14- and 28-day mortality during VOC periods.

RESULTS

A total of 19 184 remdesivir patients were matched to 11 213 non-remdesivir patients. Overall, 11.1% and 17.7% of remdesivir patients died within 14 and 28 days, respectively, compared with 15.4% and 22.4% of non-remdesivir patients. Remdesivir was associated with a reduction in mortality at 14 (hazard ratio [HR], 0.70; 95% confidence interval, .62-.78) and 28 days (HR, 0.75; 95% CI, .68-.83). The survival benefit remained significant during the pre-Delta, Delta, and Omicron periods.

CONCLUSIONS

Prompt initiation of remdesivir in immunocompromised patients hospitalized for COVID-19 is associated with significant survival benefit across all variant waves. These findings provide much-needed evidence relating to the effectiveness of a foundational treatment for hospitalized COVID-19 patients among a high-risk population.

Remdesivir Is Associated With Reduced Mortality in COVID-19 Patients Requiring Supplemental Oxygen Including Invasive Mechanical Ventilation Across SARS-CoV-2 Variants

Background

This comparative effectiveness study investigated the effect of remdesivir on in-hospital mortality among patients hospitalized for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) requiring supplemental oxygen including low-flow oxygen (LFO), high-flow oxygen/noninvasive ventilation (HFO/NIV), or invasive mechanical ventilation/extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (IMV/ECMO) across variant of concern (VOC) periods.

Methods

Patients hospitalized for COVID-19 between December 2020 and April 2022 and administered remdesivir upon admission were 1:1 propensity score matched to patients not administered remdesivir during their COVID-19 hospitalization. Analyses were stratified by supplemental oxygen requirement upon admission and VOC period. Cox proportional hazards models were used to derive adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for 14- and 28-day mortality.

Results

Patients treated with remdesivir (67 582 LFO, 34 857 HFO/NIV, and 4164 IMV/ECMO) were matched to non-remdesivir patients. Unadjusted mortality rates were significantly lower for remdesivir-treated patients at 14 days (LFO: 6.4% vs. 8.8%; HFO/NIV: 16.8% vs. 19.4%; IMV/ECMO: 27.8% vs. 35.3%) and 28 days (LFO: 9.8% vs. 12.3%; HFO/NIV: 25.8% vs. 28.3%; IMV/ECMO: 41.4% vs. 50.6%). After adjustment, remdesivir treatment was associated with a statistically significant reduction in in-hospital mortality at 14 days (LFO: aHR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.66-0.79; HFO/NIV: aHR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.77-0.89; IMV/ECMO: aHR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.65-0.82) and 28 days (LFO: aHR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.73-0.85; HFO/NIV: aHR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.82-0.93; IMV/ECMO: aHR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.67-0.82) compared with non-remdesivir treatment. Lower risk of mortality among remdesivir-treated patients was observed across VOC periods.

Conclusions

Remdesivir treatment is associated with significantly reduced mortality among patients hospitalized for COVID-19 requiring supplemental oxygen upon admission, including those requiring HFO/NIV or IMV/ECMO with severe or critical disease, across VOC periods.

Development and validation of a prognostic model for death 30 days after adult emergency laparotomy

The probability of death after emergency laparotomy varies greatly between patients. Accurate pre-operative risk prediction is fundamental to planning care and improving outcomes. We aimed to develop a model limited to a few pre-operative factors that performed well irrespective of surgical indication: obstruction; sepsis; ischaemia; bleeding; and other. We derived a model with data from the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit for patients who had emergency laparotomy between December 2016 and November 2018. We tested the model on patients who underwent emergency laparotomy between December 2018 and November 2019. There were 4077/40,816 (10%) deaths 30 days after surgery in the derivation cohort. The final model had 13 pre-operative variables: surgical indication; age; blood pressure; heart rate; respiratory history; urgency; biochemical markers; anticipated malignancy; anticipated peritoneal soiling; and ASA physical status. The predicted mortality probability deciles ranged from 0.1% to 47%. There were 1888/11,187 deaths in the test cohort. The scaled Brier score, integrated calibration index and concordance for the model were 20%, 0.006 and 0.86, respectively. Model metrics were similar for the five surgical indications. In conclusion, we think that this prognostic model is suitable to support decision-making before emergency laparotomy as well as for risk adjustment for comparing organisations.

SARS-CoV-2 post-acute sequelae in previously hospitalised patients: systematic literature review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Many individuals hospitalised with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection experience post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC), sometimes referred to as "long COVID". Our objective was to conduct a systematic literature review and meta-analysis to identify PASC-associated symptoms in previously hospitalised patients and determine the frequency and temporal nature of PASC.

METHODS

Searches of MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Library (2019-2021), World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform and reference lists were performed from November to December 2021. Articles were assessed by two reviewers against eligibility criteria and a risk of bias tool. Symptom data were synthesised by random effects meta-analyses.

RESULTS

Of 6942 records, 52 studies with at least 100 patients were analysed; ∼70% were Europe-based studies. Most data were from the first wave of the pandemic. PASC symptoms were analysed from 28 days after hospital discharge. At 1-4 months post-acute SARS-CoV-2 infection, the most frequent individual symptoms were fatigue (29.3% (95% CI 20.1-40.6%)) and dyspnoea (19.6% (95% CI 12.8-28.7%)). Many patients experienced at least one symptom at 4-8 months (73.1% (95% CI 44.2-90.3%)) and 8-12 months (75.0% (95% CI 56.4-87.4%)).

CONCLUSIONS

A wide spectrum of persistent PASC-associated symptoms were reported over the 1-year follow-up period in a significant proportion of participants. Further research is needed to better define PASC duration and determine whether factors such as disease severity, vaccination and treatments have an impact on PASC.

Restoring speech intelligibility for hearing aid users with deep learning

Almost half a billion people world-wide suffer from disabling hearing loss. While hearing aids can partially compensate for this, a large proportion of users struggle to understand speech in situations with background noise. Here, we present a deep learning-based algorithm that selectively suppresses noise while maintaining speech signals. The algorithm restores speech intelligibility for hearing aid users to the level of control subjects with normal hearing. It consists of a deep network that is trained on a large custom database of noisy speech signals and is further optimized by a neural architecture search, using a novel deep learning-based metric for speech intelligibility. The network achieves state-of-the-art denoising on a range of human-graded assessments, generalizes across different noise categories and-in contrast to classic beamforming approaches-operates on a single microphone. The system runs in real time on a laptop, suggesting that large-scale deployment on hearing aid chips could be achieved within a few years. Deep learning-based denoising therefore holds the potential to improve the quality of life of millions of hearing impaired people soon.

Physician and patient perceptions of surgical procedures for osteoarthritis of the knee in the United States, Europe, and Japan: results of a real-world study

BACKGROUND

Osteoarthritis (OA) is the most common form of arthritis, with the knee being the joint most frequently affected, and symptomatic knee OA affecting around one quarter of the general population. For patients who do not respond to non-pharmacologic or pharmacologic treatment, surgery is a recommended option. The objectives of this study were to compare the willingness of patients with knee OA to undergo surgery, together with reasons for delaying surgery, and factors affecting successful outcomes.

METHODS

A point-in-time survey was conducted in 729 primary care physicians, rheumatologists, orthopedic surgeons, and 2,316 patients with knee OA across three geographical regions: Japan, the United States (US), and Europe (EUR: France, Spain, Italy, Germany, and the United Kingdom), in order to garner their perceptions of knee surgery. Regression models were used to identify factors that might affect patients' and physicians' perceptions of surgery, including severity of OA (mild/moderate/severe), number of affected joints, surgery status, and willingness to undergo or delay surgery.

RESULTS

Baseline demographics were similar between US and EUR, although patients in Japan were more likely to be female, older, and only 7% in fulltime employment. We found that few patients with end-stage knee OA, across all regions, but particularly Japan, were willing to undergo surgery (Japan 17%, US 32%, EUR 38%), either through fear, or the lack of awareness of the risk/benefits. Moreover, surgeons are prepared to delay surgery in elderly or unwilling patients, due to their dissatisfaction with the outcome, and may defer surgery in younger patients due to the need for future revision. We also identified a disconnect between physicians, of whom over 80% consider improved functioning to be the most important outcome of surgery, and patients, who seek pain relief (Japan 60%, US 35%, EUR 14%). Since physicians across all regions considered pain reduction to be an indication of surgery success (Japan 27%, US 47%, EUR 43%), this may indicate a need for improved communication to patients on the potential benefits of surgery.

CONCLUSION

Managing the expectations of patients undergoing surgery remains an important goal in the treatment of knee OA and may help guide physician choice.

Consensus for Thoracoscopic Lower Lobectomy: Essential Components and Targets for Simulation

BACKGROUND

Despite demonstration of its clear benefits relative to open approaches, a video-assisted thoracic surgery technique for pulmonary lobectomy has not been universally adopted. This study aims to overcome potential barriers by establishing the essential components of the operation and determining which steps are most useful for simulation training.

METHODS

After randomly selecting experienced thoracic surgeons to participate, an initial list of components to a lower lobectomy was distributed. Feedback was provided by the participants, and modifications were made based on anonymous responses in a Delphi process. Components were declared essential once at least 80% of participants came to an agreement. The steps were then rated based on cognitive and technical difficulty followed by listing the components most appropriate for simulation.

RESULTS

After 3 rounds of voting 18 components were identified as essential to performance of a video-assisted thoracic surgery for lower lobectomy. The components deemed the most difficult were isolation and division of the basilar and superior segmental branches of the pulmonary artery, isolation and division of the lower lobe bronchus, and dissection of lymphovascular tissue to expose the target bronchus. The steps determined to be most amenable for simulation were isolation and division of the branches of the pulmonary artery, the lower lobe bronchus, and the inferior pulmonary vein.

CONCLUSIONS

Using a Delphi process a list of essential components for a video-assisted thoracic surgery for lower lobectomy was established. Furthermore 3 components were identified as most appropriate for simulation-based training, providing insights for future simulation development.

Controlling the configuration space topology of mechanical structures

Linkages are mechanical devices constructed from rigid bars and freely rotating joints studied both for their utility in engineering and as mathematical idealizations in a number of physical systems. Recently, there has been a resurgence of interest in designing linkages in the physics community due to the concurrent developments of mechanical metamaterials, topological mechanics, and the discovery of anomalous rigidity in fiber networks and vertex models. These developments raise a natural question: to what extent can the motion of a linkage or mechanical structure be designed? Here, we describe a method to design the topology of the configuration space of a linkage by first identifying the manifold of critical points, then perturbing around such critical configurations. Unlike other methods, our methods are tractable and provide a simple visual toolkit for mechanism design. We demonstrate our procedure by designing a mechanism to gate the propagation of a soliton in a Kane-Lubensky chain of interconnected rotors.

Eligibility for Lung Cancer Screening Among Women Receiving Screening for Breast Cancer

Blurb: This cohort study assesses the number of women who were eligible for and underwent lung cancer screening among those who received mammograms at a single academic medical center.

Genomic Profiling of Bronchoalveolar Lavage Fluid in Lung Cancer

Genomic profiling of bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) samples may be useful for tumor profiling and diagnosis in the clinic. Here, we compared tumor-derived mutations detected in BAL samples from subjects with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) to those detected in matched plasma samples. Cancer Personalized Profiling by Deep Sequencing (CAPP-Seq) was used to genotype DNA purified from BAL, plasma, and tumor samples from patients with NSCLC. The characteristics of cell-free DNA (cfDNA) isolated from BAL fluid were first characterized to optimize the technical approach. Somatic mutations identified in tumor were then compared with those identified in BAL and plasma, and the potential of BAL cfDNA analysis to distinguish lung cancer patients from risk-matched controls was explored. In total, 200 biofluid and tumor samples from 38 cases and 21 controls undergoing BAL for lung cancer evaluation were profiled. More tumor variants were identified in BAL cfDNA than plasma cfDNA in all stages (P < 0.001) and in stage I to II disease only. Four of 21 controls harbored low levels of cancer-associated driver mutations in BAL cfDNA [mean variant allele frequency (VAF) = 0.5%], suggesting the presence of somatic mutations in nonmalignant airway cells. Finally, using a Random Forest model with leave-one-out cross-validation, an exploratory BAL genomic classifier identified lung cancer with 69% sensitivity and 100% specificity in this cohort and detected more cancers than BAL cytology. Detecting tumor-derived mutations by targeted sequencing of BAL cfDNA is technically feasible and appears to be more sensitive than plasma profiling. Further studies are required to define optimal diagnostic applications and clinical utility.

SIGNIFICANCE

Hybrid-capture, targeted deep sequencing of lung cancer mutational burden in cell-free BAL fluid identifies more tumor-derived mutations with increased allele frequencies compared with plasma cell-free DNA. See related commentary by Rolfo et al., p. 2826.

Impact of osteoarthritis disease severity on treatment patterns and healthcare resource use: analysis of real-world data

OBJECTIVE

To understand treatment patterns and healthcare resource utilization (HCRU) related to osteoarthritis (OA) disease severity in patients in five European countries.

METHOD

Data were drawn from the Adelphi OA Disease Specific Programme™ (2017-18). Physicians classified their patients as having mild, moderate, or severe OA, and provided details on their current prescribed therapy and HCRU, including healthcare professional (HCP) consultations, diagnostics and testing, and hospitalizations. Comparisons between disease severity groups were made using analysis of variance and chi-squared tests.

RESULTS

The study included 489 physicians (primary care physicians, rheumatologists, orthopaedic surgeons) reporting on 3596 OA patients: 24% mild, 53% moderate, and 23% severe disease. Both physicians and patients reported decreasing satisfaction with treatment with greater disease severity, despite the number of classes of prescribed drugs and increased use of opioids, which were used in almost half of patients with severe OA. For patients whose treatment was not effective, physicians prescribed the same therapeutic options, which were cycled in subsequent treatment lines, with multiple treatment regimens being commonly used. Patients with greater symptom severity also had more physician consultations, while the numbers of tests/imaging, predominantly X-rays, conducted to diagnose or monitor OA increased significantly with disease severity. The type of HCP involvement in patient management also varied by OA severity.

CONCLUSIONS

Across five European countries, the use of both non-pharmacological and pharmacological treatments increases with greater disease severity. Those with more severe disease place a greater demand on healthcare resources, with HCP consultations, tests, and hospital visits increasing with severity.

Identification of tolerance levels on the cold-water coral Desmophyllum pertusum (Lophelia pertusa) from realistic exposure conditions to suspended bentonite, barite and drill cutting particles

Cold-water coral (CWC) reefs are numerous and widespread along the Norwegian continental shelf where oil and gas industry operate. Uncertainties exist regarding their impacts from operational discharges to drilling. Effect thresholds obtained from near-realistic exposure of suspended particle concentrations for use in coral risk modeling are particularly needed. Here, nubbins of Desmophyllum pertusum (Lophelia pertusa) were exposed shortly (5 days, 4h repeated pulses) to suspended particles (bentonite BE; barite BA, and drill cuttings DC) in the range of ~ 4 to ~ 60 mg.l-1 (actual concentration). Physiological responses (respiration rate, growth rate, mucus-related particulate organic carbon OC and particulate organic nitrogen ON) and polyp mortality were then measured 2 and 6 weeks post-exposure to assess long-term effects. Respiration and growth rates were not significantly different in any of the treatments tested compared to control. OC production was not affected in any treatment, but a significant increase of OC:ON in mucus produced by BE-exposed (23 and 48 mg.l-1) corals was revealed 2 weeks after exposure. Polyp mortality increased significantly at the two highest DC doses (19 and 49 mg.l-1) 2 and 6 weeks post-exposure but no significant difference was observed in any of the other treatments compared to the control. These findings are adding new knowledge on coral resilience to short realistic exposure of suspended drill particles and indicate overall a risk for long-term effects at a threshold of ~20 mg.l-1.

POS0128 PHYSICIAN AND PATIENT PERCEPTIONS OF SURGICAL PROCEDURES FOR KNEE OA ACROSS JAPAN, THE US AND 5 EU COUNTRIES: RESULTS OF A REAL-WORLD STUDY

Background:

Patients with knee osteoarthritis (OA) who do not achieve adequate pain relief and functional improvement with a combination of non-pharmacologic and pharmacologic therapies are recommended an arthroplasty as an effective option to relieve severe pain and functional limitations. However, some patients are reluctant to undergo surgical interventions, and clinicians may choose to avoid or delay surgery due to safety risks and/or the financial cost. It is of interest to understand if the use and perception of surgery differs between countries, however, few published data exist.

Objectives:

To demonstrate how surgery and the use of surgical procedures differs across Japan, United States of America (US) and 5 major European countries (EU5) and to evaluate patient perception towards surgery.

Methods:

Data were drawn from the Adelphi OA Disease Specific Programme (2017-18), a point-in-time survey of primary care physicians (PCP), rheumatologists (rheums), orthopaedic surgeons (orthos) and their OA patients. Patients with physician-diagnosed knee OA were included and segmented into two categories: had previous surgery (PS) and never had surgery (NS). A Fisher’s exact test was performed on the two groups. Physicians reported on patient demographics; whether patients had undergone surgery; type of surgery; success of surgery; how success was defined; and reasons for wanting to delay surgery. Patients reported their willingness to undergo surgery; reasons for not wanting surgery; how successful their surgery was; and how they defined this success.

Results:

Physician/patient reported data were available for 302,230 (Japan), 527,283 (US) and 1487,726 (EU5) patients with diagnosed knee OA. Patients were categorised by their physicians as mild (40% Japan; 34% US; 24% EU5), moderate (49% Japan; 49% US; 56% EU5) or severe (9% Japan; 17% US; 19% EU5). Patients in Japan were more likely to be female (78% vs 54% US; 58% EU5), older (73 vs 65 US; 66 EU5) and have a lower BMI than patients in the US and EU5. Obesity and diabetes were much less prevalent among patients in Japan. One in ten patients in Japan had undergone a surgery (10%), far fewer than in the US (22%) or EU5 (17%). When surgery was performed, this was more likely to be a total joint replacement (TJR) in Japan, whereas in the EU and US, arthroscopic washout was more commonly performed.

For over half of Japanese patients (56%), successful surgery was more likely to be defined as having no more pain (vs. 35% US; 14% EU5). Improved mobility and a reduction in pain were also commonly reported reasons. Physicians (in each region) were more likely to suggest pain reduction, rather than no pain, and improved mobility as markers of success. Patients in Japan were much more likely to say they would not agree to surgery if recommended by their doctor, or were unsure (84% vs. 68% US; 62% EU5). The main reason for patient reluctance in Japan was fear of surgery, whereas in the US and EU5 the main reason given was that surgery was not needed. This finding was also evident among physicians in Japan, who frequently reported that patient reluctance was a key reason for delaying surgery. Physicians in Japan, do however, report that patient request was one of their main triggers for recommending surgery (45% vs 20% US; 16% EU5).

Conclusion:

Although surgery can be an effective option for those with OA who have exhausted other treatment options, some patients are reluctant to undergo surgery out of fear, especially in Japan, possibly due to the higher patient age. Physicians aiming to delay surgery were driven by patient reluctance in Japan, whereas cost to patient was a bigger factor in the US and EU5. The higher level of TJR vs. other surgery options among patients in Japan may suggest physicians are looking for higher levels of efficacy.

Disclosure of Interests:

Naoshi Fukui Speakers bureau: Pfizer, Consultant of: Pfizer, Philip G Conaghan Speakers bureau: Abbvie, Novartis, Consultant of: AstraZeneca, BMS, Eli Lilly, EMD Serono, Flexion Therapeutics, Galapagos, Gilead, Novartis, Pfizer, Kanae Togo Shareholder of: Pfizer, Employee of: Pfizer, Nozomi Ebata Shareholder of: Pfizer, Employee of: Pfizer, Lucy Abraham Shareholder of: Pfizer, Employee of: Pfizer, James Jackson: None declared, Jessica Jackson: None declared, Mia Berry: None declared, Hemant Pandit Paid instructor for: Bristol Myers Squibb, Consultant of: Johnson and Johnson, Grant/research support from: GSK

Use of a Personalized Multimedia Education Platform Improves Preoperative Teaching for Lung Cancer Patients

We sought to develop and evaluate a personalized multimedia education (ME) tool for preoperative patient education to improve patient health knowledge, quality of life and satisfaction with care in thoracic surgery. The ME tool was developed and deployed in outpatient clinic during preoperative teaching for patients undergoing surgical resection for lung cancer for quality improvement. Patients were given an electronic survey prior to preoperative teaching and at initial postoperative visit to assess teaching effectiveness and care satisfaction. Sequential patients received either standard preoperative teaching or teaching using the ME tool. Pre- and postoperative survey responses were compared using independent sample paired t test and multivariable linear regression modeling for adjustment. The final ME tool was an iPad application that incorporated real-time annotations of 3-dimensional, interactive anatomic diagrams. The tool featured video tours of operations, and radiology image import for annotation by the surgeon. Forty-eight patients were included in this pilot study (standard education n = 26; ME, n = 22). ME patients had significantly higher satisfaction scores compared to SE patients with respect to length of education materials, clarity of content, supportiveness of content and willingness to recommend materials to others. There was no difference in length of clinic visit between groups. Both patient and provider input can be used to create an innovative electronic preoperative educational tool that prepares and empowers patients in shared decision-making before surgery. Improvements in health literacy and self-efficacy may be more difficult to achieve but remain important as multimedia teaching tools are further developed.

Female Multiple Orgasm: An Exploratory Internet-Based Survey

Women's multiorgasmic capacity has long been mentioned in the human sexuality literature. However, due in part to the conceptual vagueness surrounding this phenomenon, few empirical studies have focused on this topic, and our scientific knowledge is currently limited. This exploratory research is mainly aimed at providing a much-needed assessment of the profiles of women reporting multiorgasmic experiences. For this study, 419 sexually diverse women ages 18 through 69 who identified as multiorgasmic completed an online survey assessing variables pertaining to sociodemographic background, context and characteristics of a recent/typical multiorgasmic experience, relationships between multiple orgasm and sexual/nonsexual aspects of life, and sexual and orgasmic history. Data reduction analyses using principal component analysis pointed out that 15 variables of interest were distributed across six components, accounting for a large proportion of the sample's variance. A k-means cluster analysis further revealed that four distinct groups of women could be parsed out. These four groups could be differentiated by three sets of variables-sexual motivation, sexual history, and multiple orgasm characteristics-suggesting that female multiple orgasm is not a unitary phenomenon. This research provides to date the most comprehensive picture of female multiple orgasm and helps refine our conceptual understanding.

QTL analysis of cooking time and quality traits in dry bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.)

Three robust QTL for dry bean cooking time shortened cooking time 11-26 min and co-localized with QTL for increased cooked seed protein concentration. Cooking time is a major factor associated with consumer preference of dry beans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.). The genetic control of cooking time was investigated with a quantitative trait loci (QTL) study on a recombinant inbred line (RIL) population developed from TZ-27 (slow cooking) and TZ-37 (fast cooking). The RIL population of 146 lines was grown on research farms over 2 years in Arusha and Morogoro, Tanzania. Arusha is an important mid-altitude bean-growing region, with moderate temperatures and reliable rainfall, whereas the low altitude and high temperatures in Morogoro make it unfavorable for bean production. The population exhibited large variation for cooking time with a range of 22-98 min. On average, beans grown in Arusha cooked 15 min faster than those grown in Morogoro. A linkage map developed with 1951 SNP markers was used for QTL analysis. Ten QTL were identified for cooking time, three of which were found in multiple environments. RILs with all three QTL (CT3.1, CT6.1, and CT11.2) cooked on average 11 min faster in Arusha and 26 min faster in Morogoro than RILs with none. Seed attributes were related to cooking time such that seeds with greater seed mass and less seed coat percentage cooked faster. Cooked seed protein concentration ranged from 17.8 to 30.8% across the years and locations. All three of the most robust cooking time QTL co-localized with QTL for protein concentration, and TZ-37 always contributed faster cooking time and increased protein concentration.

Wixela Inhub: Dosing Performance In Vitro and Inhaled Flow Rates in Healthy Subjects and Patients Compared with Advair Diskus

Background: Wixela™ Inhub™ is a fluticasone propionate/salmeterol dry powder inhaler developed as a generic equivalent of Advair Diskus^® for the treatment of asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Wixela Inhub and Advair Diskus are comparable in terms of functionality, user interface, and device resistance. The primary objectives of the studies were to evaluate in vitro dose delivery with Wixela Inhub compared with Advair Diskus at relevant flow rates and to explore inhalation profiles generated by patients with asthma or COPD. Methods: In vitro studies: Emitted dose (ED) and individual dose aerodynamic particle size distribution (APSD) were measured at flow rates ranging from 30 to 90 L min^-1. Patient inhalation study: Inhalation profile recording was conducted three times in each patient (40 children with asthma, 14 adults with asthma, and 14 adults with severe-to-very-severe COPD) with an empty Inhub in an open-label study. The primary endpoint was peak inhaled flow rate (PIFR). An additional endpoint was peak pressure drop. Results: In vitro studies: ED and APSD delivered from Wixela Inhub showed low flow dependency across the patient-relevant flow-rate range. Wixela Inhub gave in vitro performance comparable with Advair Diskus for all strengths and flow rates. Patient inhalation study: For Inhub, mean PIFR was lowest for children with asthma ages 4 to 7 years (50.6 L min^-1) and highest for adults with asthma (74.8 L min^-1). For adults with severe-to-very-severe COPD, mean PIFR was 69.5 L min^-1 with Inhub. The PIFRs observed with Diskus were higher than those with Inhub, consistent with slightly higher resistance measured in vitro. The difference in resistance did not impact demonstration of bioequivalence and does not impact substitutability of the product. Peak pressure drop values were comparable between Diskus and Inhub. Conclusions: Comparable in vitro performance of Wixela Inhub to Advair Diskus confirmed that Wixela Inhub is a generic equivalent to Advair Diskus across all patient groups.

Topological transitions in the configuration space of non-Euclidean origami

Origami structures have been proposed as a means of creating three-dimensional structures from the micro- to the macroscale and as a means of fabricating mechanical metamaterials. The design of such structures requires a deep understanding of the kinematics of origami fold patterns. Here we study the configurations of non-Euclidean origami, folding structures with Gaussian curvature concentrated on the vertices, for arbitrary origami fold patterns. The kinematics of such structures depends crucially on the sign of the Gaussian curvature. As an application of our general results, we show that the configuration space of nonintersecting, oriented vertices with positive Gaussian curvature decomposes into disconnected subspaces; there is no pathway between them without tearing the origami. In contrast, the configuration space of negative Gaussian curvature vertices remains connected. This provides a new, and only partially explored, mechanism by which the mechanics and folding of an origami structure could be controlled.

Using debate to educate young people in schools about antibiotic use and resistance: A before and after evaluation using a questionnaire survey

Introduction

The use of debating as an educational tool is increasing in popularity. Students who take part in debates can develop a range of skills such as confidence and communication as well as gaining a greater understanding of the topic discussed. Within this study we have evaluated an antibiotic-resistant debate kit, assessing the ability of the debate lesson to improve student knowledge and awareness around antibiotics.

Methods

The debate lesson was delivered in seven schools across South West England to 235 students aged 13-16 years. Change in student knowledge was measured using before and after knowledge questionnaires. Student and teacher feedback and suggestions for improvements for the lesson were also collected through questionnaires and interviews.

Results

Quantitative questionnaires found a significant improvement in knowledge for most areas covered in the debate, particularly around the use of antibiotics to treat colds and bacteria developing resistance. Teachers felt their students engaged well with the debate session and made suggestions for minor modifications that could improve the lesson.

Conclusions

The results suggest that the e-Bug antibiotic resistant debate kit is able to improve knowledge in young people around antibiotics and antibiotic resistance. Furthermore, the lesson was enjoyed by students and therefore this resource should be promoted more widely to teachers and schools.

The influence of hormone replacement therapy on lung cancer incidence and mortality

OBJECTIVE

Data regarding the effects of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) on non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) are mixed. We hypothesized HRT would have a protective benefit with reduced NSCLC incidence among women in a large, prospective cohort.

METHODS

We used data from the multicenter randomized Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (1993-2001). Participants were women aged 50 to 74 years followed prospectively for up to 13 years for cancer screening. The influence of HRT on the primary outcome of NSCLC incidence and secondary outcomes of all-cause and disease-specific mortality were assessed with Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox proportional hazard models adjusting for covariates.

RESULTS

In the overall cohort of 75,587 women, 1147 women developed NSCLC after a median follow-up of 11.5 years. HRT use was characterized as 49.4% current users, 17.0% former users, and 33.6% never users. Increased age, smoking, comorbidities, and family history were associated with increased risk of NSCLC. On multivariable analysis, current HRT use was associated with reduced risk of NSCLC compared with never users (hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% confidence interval, 0.70-0.93; P = .009). HRT or oral contraception use was not associated with significant differences in all-cause mortality or disease-specific mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

These data represent among the largest prospective cohorts suggesting HRT use may have a protective effect on the development of NSCLC among women; the physiological basis of this effect merits further study; however, the results may influence discussion surrounding HRT use in women.

Gill damage and delayed mortality of Northern shrimp (Pandalus borealis) after short time exposure to anti-parasitic veterinary medicine containing hydrogen peroxide

Hydrogen peroxide (H₂O₂) is used as anti-parasitic veterinary medicine in salmon farms worldwide. In the period from 2009 to 2018 a total of 135 million kg of H₂O₂ was used in Norway, the world's largest producer of Atlantic salmon. Since the treatment water is discharged to the sea, concerns have been raised about effects of H₂O₂ on the coastal ecosystem. In the present study, Northern shrimp (Pandalus borealis) have been exposed to short pulses of H₂O₂ in the PARAMOVE^® formulation, followed by a recovery period in clean seawater. The exposure concentrations represented 100, 1000 and 10 000 times dilutions of the prescribed treatment concentration for salmon; 15 mg/L, 1.5 mg/L and 0.15 mg/L H₂O₂. Significantly increased mortality was observed after 2 h exposure to 15 mg/L H₂O₂ (50%) and after 2 h exposure to 1.5 mg/L H₂O₂ on 3 consecutive days (33%), but no mortality was observed after 2 h exposure to 0.15 mg/L. The mortality occurred 2-4 days after the first pulse of exposure. The patterns of acute effects (immobility and death) could be captured with a toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic model (GUTS), which allows extrapolations to LC50s for constant exposure, or thresholds for effects given untested exposure profiles. Effects of H₂O₂ were also detected in shrimp that survived until the end of the recovery period. The feeding rate was 66% lower than in the control after 12 days of recovery for the three-pulse 1.5 mg/L exposure. Furthermore, dose dependent tissue damage was detected in the gills and evidence of lipid peroxidation in the hepatopancreas in shrimp exposed for 1 h to 1.5 mg/L and 15 mg/L and kept in recovery for 8 days. Fluorescence intensity in the hepatopancreas of treated shrimp increased 47% and 157% at 1.5 mg/L and 15 mg/L, respectively, compared to the control. Local hydrodynamic conditions will determine how fast the concentration of H₂O₂ will be diluted and how far it will be transported horizontally and vertically. Results from dispersion modelling (literature data) together with the current experiments indicate that treatment water with toxic concentrations of H₂O₂ (1.5 mg/L) could reach P. borealis living more than 1 km from a treated salmon farm.

A Stromal Lysolipid-Autotaxin Signaling Axis Promotes Pancreatic Tumor Progression

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) develops a pronounced stromal response reflecting an aberrant wound-healing process. This stromal reaction features transdifferentiation of tissue-resident pancreatic stellate cells (PSC) into activated cancer-associated fibroblasts, a process induced by PDAC cells but of unclear significance for PDAC progression. Here, we show that PSCs undergo a dramatic lipid metabolic shift during differentiation in the context of pancreatic tumorigenesis, including remodeling of the intracellular lipidome and secretion of abundant lipids in the activated, fibroblastic state. Specifically, stroma-derived lysophosphatidylcholines support PDAC cell synthesis of phosphatidylcholines, key components of cell membranes, and also facilitate production of the potent wound-healing mediator lysophosphatidic acid (LPA) by the extracellular enzyme autotaxin, which is overexpressed in PDAC. The autotaxin-LPA axis promotes PDAC cell proliferation, migration, and AKT activation, and genetic or pharmacologic autotaxin inhibition suppresses PDAC growth in vivo. Our work demonstrates how PDAC cells exploit the local production of wound-healing mediators to stimulate their own growth and migration. SIGNIFICANCE: Our work highlights an unanticipated role for PSCs in producing the oncogenic LPA signaling lipid and demonstrates how PDAC tumor cells co-opt the release of wound-healing mediators by neighboring PSCs to promote their own proliferation and migration.See related commentary by Biffi and Tuveson, p. 578.This article is highlighted in the In This Issue feature, p. 565.

Performance of the Population Bioequivalence (PBE) Statistical Test Using an IPAC-RS Database of Delivered Dose from Metered Dose Inhalers

This article reports performance characteristics of the population bioequivalence (PBE) statistical test recommended by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for orally inhaled products. A PBE Working Group of the International Pharmaceutical Aerosol Consortium on Regulation and Science (IPAC-RS) assembled and considered a database comprising delivered dose measurements from 856 individual batches across 20 metered dose inhaler products submitted by industry. A review of the industry dataset identified variability between batches and a systematic lifestage effect that was not included in the FDA-prescribed model for PBE. A simulation study was designed to understand PBE performance when factors identified in the industry database were present. Neglecting between-batch variability in the PBE model inflated errors in the equivalence conclusion: (i) The probability of incorrectly concluding equivalence (type I error) often exceeded 15% for non-zero between-batch variability, and (ii) the probability of incorrectly rejecting equivalence (type II error) for identical products approached 20% when product and between-batch variabilities were high. Neglecting a systematic through-life increase in the PBE model did not substantially impact PBE performance for the magnitude of lifestage effect considered. Extreme values were present in 80% of the industry products considered, with low-dose extremes having a larger impact on equivalence conclusions. The dataset did not support the need for log-transformation prior to analysis, as requested by FDA. Log-transformation resulted in equivalence conclusions that depended on the direction of product mean differences. These results highlight a need for further refinement of in vitro equivalence methodology.

Immune Activation in Early-Stage Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients Receiving Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy Plus Ipilimumab

Purpose: To determine the immunologic effects of neoadjuvant chemotherapy plus ipilimumab in early-stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients.Experimental Design: This is a single-arm chemotherapy plus phased ipilimumab phase II study of 24 treatment-naïve patients with stage IB-IIIA NSCLC. Patients received neoadjuvant therapy consisting of 3 cycles of paclitaxel with either cisplatin or carboplatin and ipilimumab included in the last 2 cycles.Results: Chemotherapy alone had little effect on immune parameters in PBMCs. Profound CD28-dependent activation of both CD4 and CD8 cells was observed following ipilimumab. Significant increases in the frequencies of CD4⁺ cells expressing activation markers ICOS, HLA-DR, CTLA-4, and PD-1 were apparent. Likewise, increased frequencies of CD8⁺ cells expressing the same activation markers, with the exception of PD-1, were observed. We also examined 7 resected tumors and found higher frequencies of activated tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes than those observed in PBMCs. Surprisingly, we found 4 cases of preexisting tumor-associated antigens (TAA) responses against survivin, PRAME, or MAGE-A3 present in PBMC at baseline, but neither increased frequencies nor the appearance of newly detectable responses following ipilimumab therapy. Ipilimumab had little effect on the frequencies of circulating regulatory T cells and MDSCs.Conclusions: This study did not meet the primary endpoint of detecting an increase in blood-based TAA T-cell responses after ipilimumab. Collectively, these results highlight the immune activating properties of ipilimumab in early-stage NSCLC. The immune profiling data for ipilimumab alone can contribute to the interpretation of immunologic data from combined immune checkpoint blockade immunotherapies. Clin Cancer Res; 23(24); 7474-82. ©2017 AACR.

Exposing Northern shrimp (Pandalus borealis) to fish feed containing the antiparasitic drug diflubenzuron caused high mortality during molting

Use of the chitin synthesis inhibitor diflubenzuron (DFB) as an antiparasitic drug in salmon aquaculture raises concern over its impact on marine ecosystems. Further, global drivers, such as ocean warming and acidification (OAW), may increase the toxicity of hazardous substances including DFB. The aim of the present study was to examine the combined effects of DFB-medicated salmon feed on ovigerous Northern shrimp (Pandalus borealis) under Control (pH_NBS 8.0, 7.0ºC) and OAW conditions (pH_NBS 7.6, 9.5ºC). DFB-exposed shrimp consumed on average 0.1-0.3 g medicated feed during the 2-week exposure period, and high mortality (61-73%) was documented at both environmental conditions. There was no significant interaction between OAW and DFB. Only 2-7% of DFB-exposed shrimp molted successfully compared to 65% in Control and 63% in OAW. The shrimp molted earlier (shorter intermolt period) and exhibited higher feeding rate at OAW compared to Control conditions. An additional experiment, where female shrimp were exposed to DFB closer to molting, noted increased mortality after only 4 d exposure, and successful molting for some shrimp after 2 to 3 weeks of depuration. High mortality of shrimp exposed to DFB-medicated feed indicates that the use of this feed in aquaculture could affect local shrimp populations.

Biochemical Profile of Heritage and Modern Apple Cultivars and Application of Machine Learning Methods To Predict Usage, Age, and Harvest Season

The present study represents the first major attempt to characterize the biochemical profile in different tissues of a large selection of apple cultivars sourced from the United Kingdom's National Fruit Collection comprising dessert, ornamental, cider, and culinary apples. Furthermore, advanced machine learning methods were applied with the objective to identify whether the phenolic and sugar composition of an apple cultivar could be used as a biomarker fingerprint to differentiate between heritage and mainstream commercial cultivars as well as govern the separation among primary usage groups and harvest season. A prediction accuracy of >90% was achieved with the random forest method for all three models. The results highlighted the extraordinary phytochemical potency and unique profile of some heritage, cider, and ornamental apple cultivars, especially in comparison to more mainstream apple cultivars. Therefore, these findings could guide future cultivar selection on the basis of health-promoting phytochemical content.

Valve gape behaviour of mussels (Mytilus edulis) exposed to dispersed crude oil as an environmental monitoring endpoint

Environmental monitoring requires cost-effective and efficient methods for detecting potential effects of pollution, and valve gape behaviour has been used with this purpose for a range of contaminants in freshwater and marine bivalves. The current study investigated the use of a new method for measuring valve behaviour responses in mussels (Mytilus edulis) exposed to dispersed crude oil (DCO). Results confirmed that valve gape is a sensitive parameter; at the high DCO concentration (0.25mgL^-1) the mean valve gape was reduced from 49 to 31%, and mussels increased shell movement (measured as distance travelled) or spent more time closed to avoid contact with the oil. At the low DCO concentration (0.015mgL^-1) the distance travelled parameter was the most sensitive endpoint. Results also demonstrated that valve gape behaviour is a valid endpoint when monitoring mussels for exposure to DCO.

Local Expansion of Donation After Circulatory Death Kidney Transplant Activity Improves Waitlisted Outcomes and Addresses Inequities of Access to Transplantation

In the United Kingdom, donation after circulatory death (DCD) kidney transplant activity has increased rapidly, but marked regional variation persists. We report how increased DCD kidney transplant activity influenced waitlisted outcomes for a single center. Between 2002-2003 and 2011-2012, 430 (54%) DCD and 361 (46%) donation after brain death (DBD) kidney-only transplants were performed at the Cambridge Transplant Centre, with a higher proportion of DCD donors fulfilling expanded criteria status (41% DCD vs. 32% DBD; p = 0.01). Compared with U.K. outcomes, for which the proportion of DCD:DBD kidney transplants performed is lower (25%; p < 0.0001), listed patients at our center waited less time for transplantation (645 vs. 1045 days; p < 0.0001), and our center had higher transplantation rates and lower numbers of waiting list deaths. This was most apparent for older patients (aged >65 years; waiting time 730 vs. 1357 days nationally; p < 0.001), who received predominantly DCD kidneys from older donors (mean donor age 64 years), whereas younger recipients received equal proportions of living donor, DBD and DCD kidney transplants. Death-censored kidney graft survival was nevertheless comparable for younger and older recipients, although transplantation conferred a survival benefit from listing for only younger recipients. Local expansion in DCD kidney transplant activity improves survival outcomes for younger patients and addresses inequity of access to transplantation for older recipients.

Preliminary Population Size Estimation of Men Who Have Sex with Men in Kazakhstan: Implications for HIV Testing and Surveillance

PURPOSE

The purpose of this study is to estimate the population size of men who have sex with men (MSM) in Kazakhstan and their HIV testing history.

METHODS

We conducted structured interviews with MSM in four geographically disparate cities-N = 400 (n = 100/city)-to implement four population estimation methods and ascertain HIV testing history.

RESULTS

Approximately 3.2% of men-corresponding to ∼154,000 individuals-in Kazakhstan aged 18-59 are MSM. The 49.9% of the sample who reported taking an HIV test far exceeds the <1% reported as MSM in surveillance data.

CONCLUSION

HIV testing surveillance in Kazakhstan has underestimated the number of MSM. This underscores the need to redress social and structural barriers to HIV testing and disclosure of sexual behavior experienced by MSM in Kazakhstan. Recommendations include promoting cultural sensitivity among testing staff through quality assurance and regular training, and increasing protection and public awareness through antidiscrimination policy development.