Batteries or hydrogen or both for grid electricity storage upon full electrification of 145 countries with wind-water-solar?

Grids require electricity storage. Two emerging storage technologies are battery storage (BS) and green hydrogen storage (GHS) (hydrogen produced and compressed with clean-renewable electricity, stored, then returned to electricity with a fuel cell). An important question is whether GHS alone decreases system cost versus BS alone or BS + GHS. Here, energy costs are modeled in 145 countries grouped into 24 regions. Existing conventional hydropower (CH) storage is used along with new BS and/or GHS. A method is developed to treat CH for both baseload and peaking power. In four regions, only CH is needed. In five, CH + BS is the lowest cost. Otherwise, CH + BS + GHS is the lowest cost. CH + GHS is never the lowest cost. A metric helps estimate whether combining GHS with BS reduces cost. In most regions, merging (versus separating) grid and non-grid hydrogen infrastructure reduces cost. In sum, worldwide grid stability may be possible with CH + BS or CH + BS + GHS. Results are subject to uncertainties.

Should Transportation Be Transitioned to Ethanol with Carbon Capture and Pipelines or Electricity? A Case Study

An important issue today is whether gasoline vehicles should be replaced by flex-fuel vehicles (FFVs) that use ethanol-gasoline blends (e.g., E85), where some carbon dioxide (CO2) from ethanol's production is captured and piped, or battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) powered by wind or solar. This paper compares the options in a case study. It evaluates a proposal to capture fermentation CO2 from 34 ethanol refineries in 5 U.S. states and build an elaborate pipeline to transport the CO2 to an underground storage site. This "ethanol plan" is compared with building wind farms at the same cost to provide electricity for BEVs ("wind plan A"). Compared with the ethanol plan, wind plan A may reduce 2.4-4 times the CO2, save drivers in the five states $40-$66 billion (USD 2023) over 30 years even when BEVs initially cost $21,700 more than FFVs, require 1/400,000th the land footprint and 1/10th-1/20th the spacing area, and decrease air pollution. Even building wind to replace coal ("wind plan B") may avoid 1.5-2.5 times the CO2 as the ethanol plan. Thus, ethanol with carbon capture appears to be an opportunity cost that may damage climate and air quality, occupy land, and saddle consumers with high fuel costs for decades.

Short-Term Impacts of the Aliso Canyon Natural Gas Blowout on Weather, Climate, Air Quality, and Health in California and Los Angeles

The Aliso Canyon (Porter Ranch), California, natural gas blowout lasted 112 days, from October 23, 2015 to February 11, 2016, releasing 97 100 metric tonnes of methane, 7300 tonnes of ethane, and a host of other hydrocarbons into the Southern California air. This study estimates the impacts of the leak on transient weather, climate, air quality, and health in California and the Los Angeles Basin using a nested global-through-local weather-climate-air quality computer model. Results suggest that the Aliso Canyon leak may have increased the mixing ratios of multiple emitted hydrocarbon gases throughout California. Subsequent gas-phase photochemistry increased the mixing ratios of additional byproducts, including carbon monoxide, formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, peroxyacetyl nitrate, and ozone. Increases in air temperatures aloft and lesser increases at the surface due to thermal-infrared radiation absorption by methane stabilized the air over much of California, slightly reducing clouds, precipitation, and near-surface wind speed with greater reductions in Los Angeles than in California. The reduction in precipitation, in particular, increased PM_2.5 concentration, with a greater increase in Los Angeles than in California. The higher PM_2.5 increased estimated premature mortality in California by +32 (9-54) to +43 (15-66), depending on the set of relative risks used. Despite higher PM_2.5 in Los Angeles due to the leak, premature mortalities there were more ambiguous, ranging from a mean decrease of -7 to a mean increase of +15, for 2 simulations with different resolution and boundary conditions. The remaining mortalities occurred in the Central Valley and San Francisco Bay Area. Ozone premature mortalities away from the leak increased by <1. The study did not evaluate potential health impacts, including cancers, immediately near the leak. As such, the Aliso Canyon leak affected temperatures, pollution, and health throughout California. Future leaks will also likely have impacts.

The effects of aircraft on climate and pollution. Part II: 20-year impacts of exhaust from all commercial aircraft worldwide treated individually at the subgrid scale

This study examines the 20-year impacts of emissions from all commercial aircraft flights worldwide on climate, cloudiness, and atmospheric composition. Aircraft emissions from each individual flight worldwide were modeled to evolve from the subgrid to grid scale with the global model described and evaluated in Part I of this study. Simulations with and without aircraft emissions were run for 20 years. Aircraft emissions were found to be responsible for -6% of Arctic surface global warming to date, -1.3% of total surface global warming, and -4% of global upper tropospheric warming. Arctic warming due to aircraft slightly decreased Arctic sea ice area. Longer simulations should result in more warming due to the further increase in CO2. Aircraft increased atmospheric stability below cruise altitude and decreased it above cruise altitude. The increase in stability decreased cumulus convection in favor of increased stratiform cloudiness. Aircraft increased total cloud fraction on average. Aircraft increased surface and upper tropospheric ozone by -0.4% and -2.5%, respectively and surface and upper-tropospheric peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) by -0.1% and -5%, respectively. Aircraft emissions increased tropospheric OH, decreasing column CO and CH4 by -1.7% and -0.9%, respectively. Aircraft emissions increased human mortality worldwide by -620 (-240 to 4770) deaths per year, with half due to ozone and the rest to particulate matter less than 2.5 micrometers in diameter (PM2.5).

Measurements of aerosol chemistry during new particle formation events at a remote rural mountain site

Determining the major sources of particles that act as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) represents a critical step in the development of a more fundamental understanding of aerosol impacts on cloud formation and climate. Reported herein are direct measurements of the CCN activity of newly formed ambient particles, measured at a remote rural site in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of Northern California. Nucleation events in the winter of 2009 occurred during two pristine periods following precipitation, with higher gas-phase SO(2) concentrations during the second period, when faster particle growth occurred (7-8 nm/h). Amines, as opposed to ammonia, and sulfate were detected in the particle phase throughout new particle formation (NPF) events, increasing in number as the particles grew to larger sizes. Interestingly, long-range transport of SO(2) from Asia appeared to potentially play a role in NPF during faster particle growth. Understanding the propensity of newly formed particles to act as CCN is critical for predicting the effects of NPF on orographic cloud formation during winter storms along the Sierra Nevada Mountain range. The potential impact of newly formed particles in remote regions needs to be compared with that of transported urban aerosols when evaluating the impact of aerosols on clouds and climate.

Enhancement of local air pollution by urban CO(2) domes

Data suggest that domes of high CO(2) levels form over cities. Despite our knowledge of these domes for over a decade, no study has contemplated their effects on air pollution or health. In fact, all air pollution regulations worldwide assume arbitrarily that such domes have no local health impact, and carbon policy proposals, such as "cap and trade", implicitly assume that CO(2) impacts are the same regardless of where emissions occur. Here, it is found through data-evaluated numerical modeling with telescoping domains from the globe to the U.S., California, and Los Angeles, that local CO(2) emissions in isolation may increase local ozone and particulate matter. Although health impacts of such changes are uncertain, they are of concern, and it is estimated that that local CO(2) emissions may increase premature mortality by 50-100 and 300-1000/yr in California and the U.S., respectively. As such, reducing locally emitted CO(2) may reduce local air pollution mortality even if CO(2) in adjacent regions is not controlled. If correct, this result contradicts the basis for air pollution regulations worldwide, none of which considers controlling local CO(2) based on its local health impacts. It also suggests that a "cap and trade" policy should consider the location of CO(2) emissions, as the underlying assumption of the policy is incorrect.

Effects of ethanol (E85) versus gasoline vehicles on cancer and mortality in the United States

Ethanol use in vehicle fuel is increasing worldwide, but the potential cancer risk and ozone-related health consequences of a large-scale conversion from gasoline to ethanol have not been examined. Here, a nested global-through-urban air pollution/weather forecast model is combined with high-resolution future emission inventories, population data, and health effects data to examine the effect of converting from gasoline to E85 on cancer, mortality, and hospitalization in the United States as a whole and Los Angeles in particular. Under the base-case emission scenario derived, which accounted for projected improvements in gasoline and E85 vehicle emission controls, it was found that E85 (85% ethanol fuel, 15% gasoline) may increase ozone-related mortality, hospitalization, and asthma by about 9% in Los Angeles and 4% in the United States as a whole relative to 100% gasoline. Ozone increases in Los Angeles and the northeast were partially offset by decreases in the southeast. E85 also increased peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) in the U.S. but was estimated to cause little change in cancer risk. Due to its ozone effects, future E85 may be a greater overall public health risk than gasoline. However, because of the uncertainty in future emission regulations, it can be concluded with confidence only that E85 is unlikely to improve air quality over future gasoline vehicles. Unburned ethanol emissions from E85 may result in a global-scale source of acetaldehyde larger than that of direct emissions.

Effects of Externally-Through-Internally-Mixed Soot Inclusions within Clouds and Precipitation on Global Climate

This paper examines the incremental global climate response of black carbon (BC), the main component of soot, due to absorption and scattering by BC inclusions within cloud and precipitation particles. Modeled soot is emitted as an externally mixed aerosol particle. It evolves to an internal mixture through condensation, hydration, dissolution, dissociation, crystallization, aqueous chemistry, coagulation, and cloud processing. Size-resolved cloud liquid and ice particles grow by condensation onto size-resolved soot and other particles. Cloud particles grow to precipitation by coagulation and the Bergeron process. Cloud and precipitation particles also undergo freezing, melting, evaporation, sublimation, and coagulation with interstitial aerosol particles. Soot, which is tracked in cloud and precipitation particles of all sizes, is removed by rainout, washout, sedimentation, and dry deposition. Two methods of treating the optics of BC in size-resolved cloud liquid, ice and graupel are compared: the core-shell approximation (CSA) and the iterative dynamic effective medium approximation (DEMA). The 10-year global near-surface incremental temperature response due to fossil fuel (ff), biofuel (bf), and biomass burning (bb) BC within clouds with the DEMA was slightly stronger than that with the CSA, but both enhancements were <+0.05 K. The ff+bf portion may be approximately 60% of the total, suggesting that BC inclusions within clouds may enhance the near-surface temperature response of ff+bf soot due to all processes (estimated as approximately 0.27 K), by <10%, strengthening the possible climate impact of BC. BC cloud absorption was also found to increase water vapor, decrease precipitation, and decrease cloud fraction. The increase in water vapor at the expense of precipitation contributed to warming in addition to that of the cloud BC absorption itself. Aerosol-hydrometeor coagulation followed by hydrometeor evaporation may have caused almost twice the BC internal mixing as aerosol-aerosol coagulation.

Enhanced coagulation due to evaporation and its effect on nanoparticle evolution

A new explanation for the evolution of particles near a roadway is proposed. The explanation starts with data that suggest that small (<15 nm) liquid nanoparticles shed semivolatile organics (<C24) almost immediately upon emission. It is shown here that the shrinking of these particles enhances their rates of coagulation by over an order of magnitude, and this appears important in helping to explain particle evolution further downwind, as measured by two datasets, including one reported here, and as found with a three-dimensional numerical model used to simulate the data. Enhanced coagulation in isolated emission puffs may also affect evolution. Neither condensation, complete evaporation, coagulation alone, nor preferential small-particle dilution appears to explain the evolution.

Cleaning the air and improving health with hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles

Converting all U.S. onroad vehicles to hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles (HFCVs) may improve air quality, health, and climate significantly, whether the hydrogen is produced by steam reforming of natural gas, wind electrolysis, or coal gasification. Most benefits would result from eliminating current vehicle exhaust. Wind and natural gas HFCVs offer the greatest potential health benefits and could save 3700 to 6400 U.S. lives annually. Wind HFCVs should benefit climate most. An all-HFCV fleet would hardly affect tropospheric water vapor concentrations. Conversion to coal HFCVs may improve health but would damage climate more than fossil/electric hybrids. The real cost of hydrogen from wind electrolysis may be below that of U.S. gasoline.

Changing trends in sulfur emissions in Asia: implications for acid deposition, air pollution, and climate

In the early 1990s, it was projected that annual SO2 emissions in Asia might grow to 80-110 Tg yr(-1) by 2020. Based on new high-resolution estimates from 1975 to 2000, we calculate that SO2 emissions in Asia might grow only to 40-45 Tg yr(-1) by 2020. The main reason for this lower estimate is a decline of SO2 emissions from 1995 to 2000 in China, which emits about two-thirds of Asian SO2. The decline was due to a reduction in industrial coal use, a slowdown of the Chinese economy, and the closure of small and inefficient plants, among other reasons. One effect of the reduction in SO2 emissions in China has been a reduction in acid deposition not only in China but also in Japan. Reductions should also improve visibility and reduce health problems. SO2 emission reductions may increase global warming, but this warming effect could be partially offset by reductions in the emissions of black carbon. How SO2 emissions in the region change in the coming decades will depend on many competing factors (economic growth, pollution control laws, etc.). However a continuation of current trends would result in sulfur emissions lower than any IPCC forecasts.

Strong radiative heating due to the mixing state of black carbon in atmospheric aerosols

Aerosols affect the Earth's temperature and climate by altering the radiative properties of the atmosphere. A large positive component of this radiative forcing from aerosols is due to black carbon--soot--that is released from the burning of fossil fuel and biomass, and, to a lesser extent, natural fires, but the exact forcing is affected by how black carbon is mixed with other aerosol constituents. From studies of aerosol radiative forcing, it is known that black carbon can exist in one of several possible mixing states; distinct from other aerosol particles (externally mixed) or incorporated within them (internally mixed), or a black-carbon core could be surrounded by a well mixed shell. But so far it has been assumed that aerosols exist predominantly as an external mixture. Here I simulate the evolution of the chemical composition of aerosols, finding that the mixing state and direct forcing of the black-carbon component approach those of an internal mixture, largely due to coagulation and growth of aerosol particles. This finding implies a higher positive forcing from black carbon than previously thought, suggesting that the warming effect from black carbon may nearly balance the net cooling effect of other anthropogenic aerosol constituents. The magnitude of the direct radiative forcing from black carbon itself exceeds that due to CH4, suggesting that black carbon may be the second most important component of global warming after CO2 in terms of direct forcing.