Multiple cardiovascular risk factor care in 55 low- and middle-income countries: A cross-sectional analysis of nationally-representative, individual-level data from 280,783 adults

The prevalence of multiple age-related cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors is high among individuals living in low- and middle-income countries. We described receipt of healthcare services for and management of hypertension and diabetes among individuals living with these conditions using individual-level data from 55 nationally representative population-based surveys (2009-2019) with measured blood pressure (BP) and diabetes biomarker. We restricted our analysis to non-pregnant individuals aged 40-69 years and defined three mutually exclusive groups (i.e., hypertension only, diabetes only, and both hypertension-diabetes) to compare individuals living with concurrent hypertension and diabetes to individuals with each condition separately. We included 90,086 individuals who lived with hypertension only, 11,975 with diabetes only, and 16,228 with hypertension-diabetes. We estimated the percentage of individuals who were aware of their diagnosis, used pharmacological therapy, or achieved appropriate hypertension and diabetes management. A greater percentage of individuals with hypertension-diabetes were fully diagnosed (64.1% [95% CI: 61.8-66.4]) than those with hypertension only (47.4% [45.3-49.6]) or diabetes only (46.7% [44.1-49.2]). Among the hypertension-diabetes group, pharmacological treatment was higher for individual conditions (38.3% [95% CI: 34.8-41.8] using antihypertensive and 42.3% [95% CI: 39.4-45.2] using glucose-lowering medications) than for both conditions jointly (24.6% [95% CI: 22.1-27.2]).The percentage of individuals achieving appropriate management was highest in the hypertension group (17.6% [16.4-18.8]), followed by diabetes (13.3% [10.7-15.8]) and hypertension-diabetes (6.6% [5.4-7.8]) groups. Although health systems in LMICs are reaching a larger share of individuals living with both hypertension and diabetes than those living with just one of these conditions, only seven percent achieved both BP and blood glucose treatment targets. Implementation of cost-effective population-level interventions that shift clinical care paradigm from disease-specific to comprehensive CVD care are urgently needed for all three groups, especially for those with multiple CVD risk factors.

The prevalence of cardiovascular disease risk factors among adults living in extreme poverty

Evidence on cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor prevalence among adults living below the World Bank's international line for extreme poverty (those with income <$1.90 per day) globally is sparse. Here we pooled individual-level data from 105 nationally representative household surveys across 78 countries, representing 85% of people living in extreme poverty globally, and sorted individuals by country-specific measures of household income or wealth to identify those in extreme poverty. CVD risk factors (hypertension, diabetes, smoking, obesity and dyslipidaemia) were present among 17.5% (95% confidence interval (CI) 16.7-18.3%), 4.0% (95% CI 3.6-4.5%), 10.6% (95% CI 9.0-12.3%), 3.1% (95% CI 2.8-3.3%) and 1.4% (95% CI 0.9-1.9%) of adults in extreme poverty, respectively. Most were not treated for CVD-related conditions (for example, among those with hypertension earning <$1.90 per day, 15.2% (95% CI 13.3-17.1%) reported taking blood pressure-lowering medication). The main limitation of the study is likely measurement error of poverty level and CVD risk factors that could have led to an overestimation of CVD risk factor prevalence among adults in extreme poverty. Nonetheless, our results could inform equity discussions for resource allocation and design of effective interventions.

Diabetes risk and provision of diabetes prevention activities in 44 low-income and middle-income countries: a cross-sectional analysis of nationally representative, individual-level survey data

BACKGROUND

The global burden of diabetes is rising rapidly, yet there is little evidence on individual-level diabetes prevention activities undertaken by health systems in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Here we describe the population at high risk of developing diabetes, estimate diabetes prevention activities, and explore sociodemographic variation in these activities across LMICs.

METHODS

We performed a pooled, cross-sectional analysis of individual-level data from nationally representative, population-based surveys conducted in 44 LMICs between October, 2009, and May, 2019. Our sample included all participants older than 25 years who did not have diabetes and were not pregnant. We defined the population at high risk of diabetes on the basis of either the presence of impaired fasting glucose (or prediabetes in countries with a haemoglobin A1c available) or overweight or obesity, consistent with the WHO Package of Essential Noncommunicable Disease Guidelines for type 2 diabetes management. We estimated the proportion of survey participants that were at high risk of developing diabetes based on this definition. We also estimated the proportion of the population at high risk that reported each of four fundamental diabetes prevention activities: physical activity counselling, weight loss counselling, dietary counselling, and blood glucose screening, overall and stratified by World Bank income group. Finally, we used multivariable Poisson regression models to evaluate associations between sociodemographic characteristics and these activities.

FINDINGS

The final pooled sample included 145 739 adults (86 269 [59·2%] of whom were female and 59 468 [40·4%] of whom were male) across 44 LMICs, of whom 59 308 (40·6% [95% CI 38·5-42·8]) were considered at high risk of diabetes (20·6% [19·8-21·5] in low-income countries, 38·0% [37·2-38·9] in lower-middle-income countries, and 57·5% [54·3-60·6] in upper-middle-income countries). Overall, the reach of diabetes prevention activities was low at 40·0% (38·6-41·4) for physical activity counselling, 37·1% (35·9-38·4) for weight loss counselling, 42·7% (41·6-43·7) for dietary counselling, and 37·1% (34·7-39·6) for blood glucose screening. Diabetes prevention varied widely by national-level wealth: 68·1% (64·6-71·4) of people at high risk of diabetes in low-income countries reported none of these activities, whereas 49·0% (47·4-50·7) at high risk in upper-middle-income countries reported at least three activities. Educational attainment was associated with diabetes prevention, with estimated increases in the predicted probability of receipt ranging between 6·5 (3·6-9·4) percentage points for dietary fruit and vegetable counselling and 21·3 (19·5-23·2) percentage points for blood glucose screening, among people with some secondary schooling compared with people with no formal education.

INTERPRETATION

A large proportion of individuals across LMICs are at high risk of diabetes but less than half reported receiving fundamental prevention activities overall, with the lowest receipt of these activities among people in low-income countries and with no formal education. These findings offer foundational evidence to inform future global targets for diabetes prevention and to strengthen policies and programmes to prevent continued increases in diabetes worldwide.

FUNDING

Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health McLennan Fund: Dean's Challenge Grant Program and the EU's Research and Innovation programme Horizon 2020.

Health service readiness to provide care for HIV and cardiovascular disease risk factors in low- and middle-income countries

Cardiovascular disease risk factors (CVDRF), in particular diabetes and hypertension, are chronic conditions which carry a substantial disease burden in Low- and Middle-Income Countries. Unlike HIV, they were neglected in the Millenium Development Goals along with the health services required to manage them. To inform the level of health service readiness that could be achieved with increased attention, we compared readiness for CVDRF with that for HIV. Using data from national Service Provision Assessments, we describe facility-reported readiness to provide services for CVDRF and HIV, and derive a facility readiness score of observed essential components to manage them. We compared HIV vs CVDRF coverage scores by country, rural or urban location, and facility type, and by whether or not facilities reported readiness to provide care. We assessed the factors associated with coverage scores for CVDRF and HIV in a multivariable analysis. In our results, we include 7522 facilities in 8 countries; 86% of all facilities reported readiness to provide services for CVDRF, ranging from 77-98% in individual countries. For HIV, 30% reported of facilities readiness to provide services, ranging from 3-63%. Median derived facility readiness score for CVDRF was 0.28 (IQR 0.16-0.50), and for HIV was 0.43 (0.32-0.60). Among facilities which reported readiness, this rose to 0.34 (IQR 0.18-0.52) for CVD and 0.68 (0.56-0.76) for HIV. Derived readiness scores were generally significantly lower for CVDRF than for HIV, except in private facilities. In multivariable analysis, odds of a higher readiness score in both CVDRF or HIV care were higher in urban vs rural and secondary vs primary care; facilities with higher CVDRF scores were significantly associated with higher HIV scores. Derived readiness scores for HIV are higher than for CVDRF, and coverage for CVDRF is significantly higher in facilities with higher HIV readiness scores. This suggests possible benefits from leveraging HIV services to provide care for CVDRF, but poor coverage in rural and primary care facilities threatens Sustainable Development Goal 3.8 to provide high quality universal healthcare for all.

Diagnostic testing for hypertension, diabetes, and hypercholesterolaemia in low-income and middle-income countries: a cross-sectional study of data for 994 185 individuals from 57 nationally representative surveys

BACKGROUND

Testing for the risk factors of cardiovascular disease, which include hypertension, diabetes, and hypercholesterolaemia, is important for timely and effective risk management. Yet few studies have quantified and analysed testing of cardiovascular risk factors in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) with respect to sociodemographic inequalities. We aimed to address this knowledge gap.

METHODS

In this cross-sectional analysis, we pooled individual-level data for non-pregnant adults aged 18 years or older from nationally representative surveys done between Jan 1, 2010, and Dec 31, 2019 in LMICs that included a question about whether respondents had ever had their blood pressure, glucose, or cholesterol measured. We analysed diagnostic testing performance by quantifying the overall proportion of people who had ever been tested for these cardiovascular risk factors and the proportion of individuals who met the diagnostic testing criteria in the WHO package of essential noncommunicable disease interventions for primary care (PEN) guidelines (ie, a BMI >30 kg/m2 or a BMI >25 kg/m2 among people aged 40 years or older). We disaggregated and compared diagnostic testing performance by sex, wealth quintile, and education using two-sided t tests and multivariable logistic regression models.

FINDINGS

Our sample included data for 994 185 people from 57 surveys. 19·1% (95% CI 18·5-19·8) of the 943 259 people in the hypertension sample met the WHO PEN criteria for diagnostic testing, of whom 78·6% (77·8-79·2) were tested. 23·8% (23·4-24·3) of the 225 707 people in the diabetes sample met the WHO PEN criteria for diagnostic testing, of whom 44·9% (43·7-46·2) were tested. Finally, 27·4% (26·3-28·6) of the 250 573 people in the hypercholesterolaemia sample met the WHO PEN criteria for diagnostic testing, of whom 39·7% (37·1-2·4) were tested. Women were more likely than men to be tested for hypertension and diabetes, and people in higher wealth quintiles compared with those in the lowest wealth quintile were more likely to be tested for all three risk factors, as were people with at least secondary education compared with those with less than primary education.

INTERPRETATION

Our study shows opportunities for health systems in LMICs to improve the targeting of diagnostic testing for cardiovascular risk factors and adherence to diagnostic testing guidelines. Risk-factor-based testing recommendations rather than sociodemographic characteristics should determine which individuals are tested.

FUNDING

Harvard McLennan Family Fund, the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation, and the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute of the US National Institutes of Health.

Measurement of and training for NCD guideline implementation in LMICs: a scoping review protocol

INTRODUCTION

Globally, non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the leading causes of morbidity and mortality with an estimated 41 million deaths (74% of all global deaths) annually. Despite the WHO's Global Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of NCDs since 2013, progress on implementation of the guidelines has been slow. Although research has shown success of some NCD prevention and treatment interventions, there is a dearth of research on NCD care delivery approaches, cost-effectiveness and larger implementation research, especially in low/middle-income countries (LMICs). The objective of this scoping review is to identify the existing variation in how, why and by whom implementation of NCD guidelines is measured as part of implementation research or non-research programme improvement.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Using the methods established by Arksey and O'Malley, the search strategy was developed in consultation with a research librarian together with stakeholder feedback from content experts. We will apply the search to multiple electronic databases and grey literature sources. Two reviewers will independently screen title and abstract for inclusion followed by a full-text screening and all included records will be abstracted using a standardised tool that will be piloted with a sample of articles before application to all records. We will conduct a narrative synthesis of abstracted data and simple quantitative descriptive statistics.

DISSEMINATION

The results will enable stakeholders in LMICs to leverage existing tools and resources for implementation and ongoing evaluation of NCD guidelines, to improve education and capacity building, and ultimately NCD care across the lifespan.

Rural-Urban Differences in Diabetes Care and Control in 42 Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Cross-sectional Study of Nationally Representative Individual-Level Data

OBJECTIVE

Diabetes prevalence is increasing rapidly in rural areas of low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), but there are limited data on the performance of health systems in delivering equitable and effective care to rural populations. We therefore assessed rural-urban differences in diabetes care and control in LMICs.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We pooled individual-level data from nationally representative health surveys in 42 countries. We used Poisson regression models to estimate age-adjusted differences in the proportion of individuals with diabetes in rural versus urban areas achieving performance measures for the diagnosis, treatment, and control of diabetes and associated cardiovascular risk factors. We examined differences across the pooled sample, by sex, and by country.

RESULTS

The pooled sample from 42 countries included 840,110 individuals (35,404 with diabetes). Compared with urban populations with diabetes, rural populations had ∼15-30% lower relative risk of achieving performance measures for diabetes diagnosis and treatment. Rural populations with diagnosed diabetes had a 14% (95% CI 5-22%) lower relative risk of glycemic control, 6% (95% CI -5 to 16%) lower relative risk of blood pressure control, and 23% (95% CI 2-39%) lower relative risk of cholesterol control. Rural women with diabetes had lower achievement of performance measures relating to control than urban women, whereas among men, differences were small.

CONCLUSIONS

Rural populations with diabetes experience substantial inequities in the achievement of diabetes performance measures in LMICs. Programs and policies aiming to strengthen global diabetes care must consider the unique challenges experienced by rural populations.

Estimated effect of increased diagnosis, treatment, and control of diabetes and its associated cardiovascular risk factors among low-income and middle-income countries: a microsimulation model

BACKGROUND

Given the increasing prevalence of diabetes in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), we aimed to estimate the health and cost implications of achieving different targets for diagnosis, treatment, and control of diabetes and its associated cardiovascular risk factors among LMICs.

METHODS

We constructed a microsimulation model to estimate disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) lost and health-care costs of diagnosis, treatment, and control of blood pressure, dyslipidaemia, and glycaemia among people with diabetes in LMICs. We used individual participant data-specifically from the subset of people who were defined as having any type of diabetes by WHO standards-from nationally representative, cross-sectional surveys (2006-18) spanning 15 world regions to estimate the baseline 10-year risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (defined as fatal and non-fatal myocardial infarction and stroke), heart failure (ejection fraction of <40%, with New York Heart Association class III or IV functional limitations), end-stage renal disease (defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate <15 mL/min per 1·73 m2 or needing dialysis or transplant), retinopathy with severe vision loss (<20/200 visual acuity as measured by the Snellen chart), and neuropathy with pressure sensation loss (assessed by the Semmes-Weinstein 5·07/10 g monofilament exam). We then used data from meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials to estimate the reduction in risk and the WHO OneHealth tool to estimate costs in reaching either 60% or 80% of diagnosis, treatment initiation, and control targets for blood pressure, dyslipidaemia, and glycaemia recommended by WHO guidelines. Costs were updated to 2020 International Dollars, and both costs and DALYs were computed over a 10-year policy planning time horizon at a 3% annual discount rate.

FINDINGS

We obtained data from 23 678 people with diabetes from 67 countries. The median estimated 10-year risk was 10·0% (IQR 4·0-18·0) for cardiovascular events, 7·8% (5·1-11·8) for neuropathy with pressure sensation loss, 7·2% (5·6-9·4) for end-stage renal disease, 6·0% (4·2-8·6) for retinopathy with severe vision loss, and 2·6% (1·2-5·3) for congestive heart failure. A target of 80% diagnosis, 80% treatment, and 80% control would be expected to reduce DALYs lost from diabetes complications from a median population-weighted loss to 1097 DALYs per 1000 population over 10 years (IQR 1051-1155), relative to a baseline of 1161 DALYs, primarily from reduced cardiovascular events (down from a median of 143 to 117 DALYs per 1000 population) due to blood pressure and statin treatment, with comparatively little effect from glycaemic control. The target of 80% diagnosis, 80% treatment, and 80% control would be expected to produce an overall incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of US$1362 per DALY averted (IQR 1304-1409), with the majority of decreased costs from reduced cardiovascular event management, counterbalanced by increased costs for blood pressure and statin treatment, producing an overall incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $1362 per DALY averted (IQR 1304-1409).

INTERPRETATION

Reducing complications from diabetes in LMICs is likely to require a focus on scaling up blood pressure and statin medication treatment initiation and blood pressure medication titration rather than focusing on increasing screening to increase diabetes diagnosis, or a glycaemic treatment and control among people with diabetes.

FUNDING

None.

Prioritizing Health-Sector Interventions for Noncommunicable Diseases and Injuries in Low- and Lower-Middle Income Countries: National NCDI Poverty Commissions

Noncommunicable Disease and Injury (NCDI) Poverty Commissions in 16 low- and middle-income countries provided evidence-based recommendations on a local, expanded set of priority NCDIs and health-sector interventions needed in national initiatives to attain universal health coverage. These commissions provide a collective platform for policy, research, and advocacy efforts to improve coverage of cost-effective and equitable health-sector interventions for populations living in extreme poverty.

Health sector priorities and interventions to prevent and manage noncommunicable diseases and injuries (NCDIs) in low- and lower-middle-income countries (LLMICs) have primarily adopted elements of the World Health Organization Global Action Plan for NCDs 2013–2020. However, there have been limited efforts in LLMICs to prioritize among conditions and health-sector interventions for NCDIs based on local epidemiology and contextually relevant risk factors or that incorporate the equitable distribution of health outcomes. The Lancet Commission on Reframing Noncommunicable Diseases and Injuries for the Poorest Billion supported national NCDI Poverty Commissions to define local NCDI epidemiology, determine an expanded set of priority NCDI conditions, and recommend cost-effective, equitable health-sector interventions. Fifteen national commissions and 1 state-level commission were established from 2016–2019. Six commissions completed the prioritization exercise and selected an average of 25 NCDI conditions; 15 conditions were selected by all commissions, including asthma, breast cancer, cervical cancer, diabetes mellitus type 1 and 2, epilepsy, hypertensive heart disease, intracerebral hemorrhage, ischemic heart disease, ischemic stroke, major depressive disorder, motor vehicle road injuries, rheumatic heart disease, sickle cell disorders, and subarachnoid hemorrhage. The commissions prioritized an average of 35 health-sector interventions based on cost-effectiveness, financial risk protection, and equity-enhancing rankings. The prioritized interventions were estimated to cost an additional US$4.70–US$13.70 per capita or approximately 9.7%–35.6% of current total health expenditure (0.6%–4.0% of current gross domestic product). Semistructured surveys and qualitative interviews of commission representatives demonstrated positive outcomes in several thematic areas, including understanding NCDIs of poverty, informing national planning and implementation of NCDI health-sector interventions, and improving governance and coordination for NCDIs. Overall, national NCDI Poverty Commissions provided a platform for evidence-based, locally driven determination of priorities within NCDIs.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of population-based tobacco control strategies in the prevention of cardiovascular diseases in Tanzania

BACKGROUND

Tobacco consumption contributes significantly to the global burden of disease. The prevalence of smoking is estimated to be increasing in many low-income countries, including Tanzania, especially among women and youth. Even so, the implementation of tobacco control measures has been discouraging in the country. Efforts to foster investment in tobacco control are hindered by lack of evidence on what works and at what cost.

AIMS

We aim to estimate the cost and cost-effectiveness of population-based tobacco control strategies in the prevention of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in Tanzania.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed using an Excel-based Markov model, from a governmental perspective. We employed an ingredient approach and step-down methodologies in the costing exercise following a government perspective. Epidemiological data and efficacy inputs were derived from the literature. We used disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted as the outcome measure. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis was carried out with Ersatz to incorporate uncertainties in the model parameters.

RESULTS

Our model results showed that all five tobacco control strategies were very cost-effective since they fell below the ceiling ratio of one GDP per capita suggested by the WHO. Increase in tobacco taxes was the most cost-effective strategy, while a workplace smoking ban was the least cost-effective option, with a cost-effectiveness ratio of US$5 and US$267, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Even though all five interventions are deemed very cost-effective in the prevention of CVD in Tanzania, more research on budget impact analysis is required to further assess the government's ability to implement these interventions.

Diabetes diagnosis and care in sub-Saharan Africa: pooled analysis of individual data from 12 countries

BACKGROUND

Despite widespread recognition that the burden of diabetes is rapidly growing in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, nationally representative estimates of unmet need for diabetes diagnosis and care are in short supply for the region. We use national population-based survey data to quantify diabetes prevalence and met and unmet need for diabetes diagnosis and care in 12 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. We further estimate demographic and economic gradients of met need for diabetes diagnosis and care.

METHODS

We did a pooled analysis of individual-level data from nationally representative population-based surveys that met the following inclusion criteria: the data were collected during 2005-15; the data were made available at the individual level; a biomarker for diabetes was available in the dataset; and the dataset included information on use of core health services for diabetes diagnosis and care. We first quantified the population in need of diabetes diagnosis and care by estimating the prevalence of diabetes across the surveys; we also quantified the prevalence of overweight and obesity, as a major risk factor for diabetes and an indicator of need for diabetes screening. Second, we determined the level of met need for diabetes diagnosis, preventive counselling, and treatment in both the diabetic and the overweight and obese population. Finally, we did survey fixed-effects regressions to establish the demographic and economic gradients of met need for diabetes diagnosis, counselling, and treatment.

FINDINGS

We pooled data from 12 nationally representative population-based surveys in sub-Saharan Africa, representing 38 311 individuals with a biomarker measurement for diabetes. Across the surveys, the median prevalence of diabetes was 5% (range 2-14) and the median prevalence of overweight or obesity was 27% (range 16-68). We estimated seven measures of met need for diabetes-related care across the 12 surveys: (1) percentage of the overweight or obese population who received a blood glucose measurement (median 22% [IQR 11-37]); and percentage of the diabetic population who reported that they (2) had ever received a blood glucose measurement (median 36% [IQR 27-63]); (3) had ever been told that they had diabetes (median 27% [IQR 22-51]); (4) had ever been counselled to lose weight (median 15% [IQR 13-23]); (5) had ever been counselled to exercise (median 15% [IQR 11-30]); (6) were using oral diabetes drugs (median 25% [IQR 18-42]); and (7) were using insulin (median 11% [IQR 6-13]). Compared with those aged 15-39 years, the adjusted odds of met need for diabetes diagnosis (measures 1-3) were 2·22 to 3·53 (40-54 years) and 3·82 to 5·01 (≥55 years) times higher. The adjusted odds of met need for diabetes diagnosis also increased consistently with educational attainment and were between 3·07 and 4·56 higher for the group with 8 years or more of education than for the group with less than 1 year of education. Finally, need for diabetes care was significantly more likely to be met (measures 4-7) in the oldest age and highest educational groups.

INTERPRETATION

Diabetes has already reached high levels of prevalence in several countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Large proportions of need for diabetes diagnosis and care in the region remain unmet, but the patterns of unmet need vary widely across the countries in our sample. Novel health policies and programmes are urgently needed to increase awareness of diabetes and to expand coverage of preventive counselling, diagnosis, and linkage to diabetes care. Because the probability of met need for diabetes diagnosis and care consistently increases with age and educational attainment, policy makers should pay particular attention to improved access to diabetes services for young adults and people with low educational attainment.

FUNDING

None.

H3Africa multi-centre study of the prevalence and environmental and genetic determinants of type 2 diabetes in sub-Saharan Africa: study protocol

The burden and aetiology of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and its microvascular complications may be influenced by varying behavioural and lifestyle environments as well as by genetic susceptibility. These aspects of the epidemiology of T2D have not been reliably clarified in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), highlighting the need for context-specific epidemiological studies with the statistical resolution to inform potential preventative and therapeutic strategies. Therefore, as part of the Human Heredity and Health in Africa (H3Africa) initiative, we designed a multi-site study comprising case collections and population-based surveys at 11 sites in eight countries across SSA. The goal is to recruit up to 6000 T2D participants and 6000 control participants. We will collect questionnaire data, biophysical measurements and biological samples for chronic disease traits, risk factors and genetic data on all study participants. Through integrating epidemiological and genomic techniques, the study provides a framework for assessing the burden, spectrum and environmental and genetic risk factors for T2D and its complications across SSA. With established mechanisms for fieldwork, data and sample collection and management, data-sharing and consent for re-approaching participants, the study will be a resource for future research studies, including longitudinal studies, prospective case ascertainment of incident disease and interventional studies.

Non communicable diseases in Tanzania: a call for urgent action

Globally there is evidence of the growing burden of Non Communicable diseases (NCDs) especially in developing countries including Tanzania. This paper summarises the review of published papers on the magnitude of Non Communicable Diseases in the country. Current opportunities for management and control of NCDs are also explored. In this review diseases such as diabetes and hypertension have been shown to have increased over the years. Prevalence of risk factors such as obesity, dyslipidemia and smoking has been shown to be high with clear gender and urban rural differences. Generally there is paucity of national representative data on the burden of risk factors and prevalence of non-communicable diseases. The main risk factors for NCDs namely smoking, alcohol intake, unhealthy diet and low physical activity are prevalent in both rural and urban communities. The socio-demographic and economic transition has a big role in the current rise of non-communicable diseases in Tanzania. There are initiatives to control the burden of non-communicable diseases in the country. However there is need to focus more on primary prevention at population level targeting interventions to reduce exposure to tobacco, reduce alcohol intake, reduce salt intake, promote healthy diets and physical activity. For the prevention and control of NCDs, there needs to be a continuum from primary to tertiary prevention and a scope of interventions from the community level up to the national level. Community-based interventions are needed targeting the risk factors for primary prevention. In addition, secondary prevention measures are needed targeting those at high risk to ensure that they are identified early through a high risk targeted screening for early identification and appropriate care. Effective policies are needed to support such interventions.

Risk scores based on self-reported or available clinical data to detect undiagnosed type 2 diabetes: a systematic review

OBJECTIVE

To systematically review published primary research on the development or validation of risk scores that require only self-reported or available clinical data to identify undiagnosed Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM).

METHODS

A systematic literature search of Medline and EMBASE was conducted until January 2011. Studies focusing on the development or validation of risk scores to identify undiagnosed T2DM were included. Risk scores to predict future risk of T2DM were excluded.

RESULTS

Thirty-one studies were included; 17 developed a new risk score, 14 validated existing scores. Twenty-six studies were conducted in high-income countries. Age and measures of body mass/fat distribution were the most commonly used predictor variables. Studies developing new scores performed better than validation studies, with 11 reporting an AUC of >0.80 compared to one validation study. Fourteen validation studies reported sensitivities of <80%. The performance of scores did not differ by the number of variables included or the country setting.

CONCLUSIONS

There is a proliferation of newly developed risk scores using similar variables, which sometimes perform poorly upon external validation. Future research should explore the recalibration, validation and applicability of existing scores to other settings, particularly in low/middle income countries, and on the utility of scores to improve diabetes-related outcomes.

Screening for hyperglycemia in the developing world: rationale, challenges and opportunities

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of diabetes and prediabetes are increasingly high in developing countries, where detection rates remain very low. This manuscript discusses the rationale, challenges and opportunities for early detection of diabetes and prediabetes in developing countries.

METHODS

PubMed was searched up to March 2012 for studies addressing screening for hyperglycemia in developing countries. Relevant studies were summarized through key questions derived from the Wilson and Junger criteria.

RESULTS

In developing countries, diabetes predominantly affects working-age persons, has high rates of complications and devastating economic impacts. These countries are ill-equipped to handle advanced stages of the disease. There are acceptable and relatively simple tools that can aid screening in these countries. Interventions shown to be cost-effective in preventing diabetes and its complications in developed countries can be used in screen-detected people of developing countries. However, effective implementation of these interventions remains a challenge, and the costs and benefits of diabetes screening in these settings are less well-known. Implementing screening policies in developing countries will require health systems strengthening, through creative funding and staff training.

CONCLUSIONS

For many compelling reasons, screening for hyperglycemia preferably targeted, should be a policy priority in developing countries. This will help reorient health systems toward cost-saving prevention.

Clinical manifestations and outcomes of severe malaria among children admitted at Rungwe and Kyela district hospitals in south-western Tanzania

Malaria remains as an important public health and a major cause of childhood death and paediatric hospital admission in sub-Saharan Africa. This prospective hospital based cross sectional study was conducted from April 2007 to April 2008. The main objective was to assess clinical manifestations and outcomes of severe malaria in children admitted to district hospital in Rungwe and Kyela in south-western Tanzania. A total of 1371 children were selected as screening group of which 409 (29.8%) were tested positive for malaria. Mean age of the children was 2.7 (95%CI= 2.5, 2.8) years and the majority (86%) were under five years of age. The proportion of children severe malaria in Rungwe was significantly higher than that of Kyela by 21.3% (P=0.002). The common symptoms of severe malaria during admission were convulsions (50.9%) compensated shock (30.6%), prostration (29.1%) and symptomatic severe anaemia (14.9%). The case fatality rate (CFR) was 4.6% and the cure rate (CR) was 95.4%. Children with suspected severe acidosis and symptomatic severe anemia were 4.8 (95%CI=1.6, 14.6) and 5.5 (95%CI 1.1, 28.2), respectively, more likely to die compared to those without these symptoms. The proportion of deaths among children presenting ≥5 symptoms was 32.1% higher than among those presenting one symptom (OR =0.50, 95%CI 0.125-2.000; P=0.000). Convulsions and compensated shock were the leading symptoms at admission. Suspected severe acidosis and symptomatic severe anemia were the predictors of mortality for children. In order to reduce mortality among admitted children with severe malaria there is a need for health providers to deploy strategic management of fatal prognostic factors. In conclusion, convulsion and compensated shock were the leading symptoms among children at admission and that suspected severe acidosis and symptomatic severe anemia were the predictors of mortality. It is therefore important to emphasis early diagnosis and prompt treatment of severe cases of malaria to minimize mortality among children.