The impact of Covid-19 on demographic components in Spain, 2020-31: A scenario approach

While considerable attention has been paid to the impact of Covid-19 on mortality and fertility, few studies have attempted to evaluate the pandemic's effect on international migration. We analyse the impact of Covid-19 on births, deaths, and international migration in Spain during 2020, comparing observed data with estimated values assuming there had been no pandemic. We also assess the consequences of three post-pandemic scenarios on the size and structure of the population to 2031. Results show that in 2020, excess mortality equalled 16.2 per cent and births were 6.5 per cent lower than expected. Immigration was the most affected component, at 36.0 per cent lower than expected, while emigration was reduced by 23.8 per cent. If net migration values recover to pre-pandemic levels in 2022, the size and structure of the population in 2031 will be barely affected. Conversely, if levels do not recover until 2025, there will be important changes to Spain's age structure.

Quantifying the impact of COVID-19 on immigration in receiving high-income countries

Previous studies have examined the impact of COVID-19 on mortality and fertility. However, little is known about the effect of the pandemic on constraining international migration. We use Eurostat and national statistics data on immigration and ARIMA time-series models to quantify the impact of COVID-19 on immigration flows in 15 high-income countries by forecasting their counterfactual levels in 2020, assuming no pandemic, and comparing these estimates with observed immigration counts. We then explore potential driving forces, such as stringency measures and increases in unemployment moderating the extent of immigration change. Our results show that immigration declined in all countries, except in Finland. Yet, significant cross-national variations exist. Australia (60%), Spain (45%) and Sweden (36%) display the largest declines, while immigration decreased by between 15% and 30% in seven countries, and by less than 15% in four nations where results were not statistically significant. International travel restrictions, mobility restrictions and stay-at-home requirements exhibit a relatively strong relationship with declines in immigration, although countries with similar levels of stringency witnessed varying levels of immigration decline. Work and school closings and unemployment show no relationship with changes in immigration.

Rural revival? The rise in internal migration to rural areas during the COVID-19 pandemic. Who moved and Where?

During the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, anecdotal evidence of a "rural revival" emerged mirroring the "urban exodus" hypothesis. Currently, we know that internal migration to rural areas increased in some countries during 2020, although not with the intensity speculated by the media. However, little is known about the attributes of rural areas attracting migrants, demographic composition of migration inflows, and if counterurbanisation movements persisted over 2021. Drawing on administrative population register data, we analysed the main types of rural areas pulling internal migrants in Spain and their demographic characteristics, namely age, sex and place of birth during 2020 and 2020, using the period 2016-2019 as a benchmark. Our results show that in-migration increased in rural areas close to cities and with high prevalence of second homes during 2020, while out-migration declined. Exceptionally high inflows persisted over 2021, but outflows converged to figures observed prior to the pandemic. Inflows to rural areas comprised internal migrants across a wide age spectrum, from young adults and families to retired individuals. These flows also comprised foreign-born, particularly populations of a wide age range from Latin American countries.