The implications of competing risks and direct treatment disutility in cardiovascular disease and osteoporotic fracture: risk prediction and cost effectiveness analysis

Background

Clinical guidelines commonly recommend preventative treatments for people above a risk threshold. Therefore, decision-makers must have faith in risk prediction tools and model-based cost-effectiveness analyses for people at different levels of risk. Two problems that arise are inadequate handling of competing risks of death and failing to account for direct treatment disutility (i.e. the hassle of taking treatments). We explored these issues using two case studies: primary prevention of cardiovascular disease using statins and osteoporotic fracture using bisphosphonates.

Objectives

Externally validate three risk prediction tools [QRISK®3, QRISK®-Lifetime, QFracture-2012 (ClinRisk Ltd, Leeds, UK)]; derive and internally validate new risk prediction tools for cardiovascular disease [competing mortality risk model with Charlson Comorbidity Index (CRISK-CCI)] and fracture (CFracture), accounting for competing-cause death; quantify direct treatment disutility for statins and bisphosphonates; and examine the effect of competing risks and direct treatment disutility on the cost-effectiveness of preventative treatments.

Design, participants, main outcome measures, data sources

Discrimination and calibration of risk prediction models (Clinical Practice Research Datalink participants: aged 25-84 years for cardiovascular disease and aged 30-99 years for fractures); direct treatment disutility was elicited in online stated-preference surveys (people with/people without experience of statins/bisphosphonates); costs and quality-adjusted life-years were determined from decision-analytic modelling (updated models used in National Institute for Health and Care Excellence decision-making).

Results

CRISK-CCI has excellent discrimination, similar to that of QRISK3 (Harrell's c = 0.864 vs. 0.865, respectively, for women; and 0.819 vs. 0.834, respectively, for men). CRISK-CCI has systematically better calibration, although both models overpredict in high-risk subgroups. People recommended for treatment (10-year risk of ≥ 10%) are younger when using QRISK-Lifetime than when using QRISK3, and have fewer observed events in a 10-year follow-up (4.0% vs. 11.9%, respectively, for women; and 4.3% vs. 10.8%, respectively, for men). QFracture-2012 underpredicts fractures, owing to under-ascertainment of events in its derivation. However, there is major overprediction among people aged 85-99 years and/or with multiple long-term conditions. CFracture is better calibrated, although it also overpredicts among older people. In a time trade-off exercise (n = 879), statins exhibited direct treatment disutility of 0.034; for bisphosphonates, it was greater, at 0.067. Inconvenience also influenced preferences in best-worst scaling (n = 631). Updated cost-effectiveness analysis generates more quality-adjusted life-years among people with below-average cardiovascular risk and fewer among people with above-average risk. If people experience disutility when taking statins, the cardiovascular risk threshold at which benefits outweigh harms rises with age (≥ 8% 10-year risk at 40 years of age; ≥ 38% 10-year risk at 80 years of age). Assuming that everyone experiences population-average direct treatment disutility with oral bisphosphonates, treatment is net harmful at all levels of risk.

Limitations

Treating data as missing at random is a strong assumption in risk prediction model derivation. Disentangling the effect of statins from secular trends in cardiovascular disease in the previous two decades is challenging. Validating lifetime risk prediction is impossible without using very historical data. Respondents to our stated-preference survey may not be representative of the population. There is no consensus on which direct treatment disutilities should be used for cost-effectiveness analyses. Not all the inputs to the cost-effectiveness models could be updated.

Conclusions

Ignoring competing mortality in risk prediction overestimates the risk of cardiovascular events and fracture, especially among older people and those with multimorbidity. Adjustment for competing risk does not meaningfully alter cost-effectiveness of these preventative interventions, but direct treatment disutility is measurable and has the potential to alter the balance of benefits and harms. We argue that this is best addressed in individual-level shared decision-making.

Study registration

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42021249959.

Funding

This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health and Social Care Delivery Research programme (NIHR award ref: 15/12/22) and is published in full in Health and Social Care Delivery Research; Vol. 12, No. 4. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

Age and cancer type: associations with increased odds of receiving a late diagnosis in people with advanced cancer

PURPOSE

In order to deliver appropriate and timely care planning and minimise avoidable late diagnoses, clinicians need to be aware of which patients are at higher risk of receiving a late cancer diagnosis. We aimed to determine which demographic and clinical factors are associated with receiving a 'late' cancer diagnosis (within the last 12 weeks of life).

METHOD

Retrospective cohort study of 2,443 people who died from cancer ('cancer decedents') in 2013-2015. Demographic and cancer registry datasets linked using patient-identifying Community Health Index numbers. Analysis used binary logistic regression, with univariate and adjusted odds ratios (SPSS v25).

RESULTS

One third (n = 831,34.0%) received a late diagnosis. Age and cancer type were significantly associated with late cancer diagnosis (p < 0.001). Other demographic factors were not associated with receiving a late diagnosis. Cancer decedents with lung cancer (Odds Ratios presented in abstract are the inverse of those presented in the main text, where lung cancer is the reference category. Presented as 1/(OR multivariate)) were more likely to have late diagnosis than those with bowel (95% Confidence Interval [95%CI] Odds Ratio (OR)1.52 (OR1.12 to 2.04)), breast or ovarian (95%CI OR3.33 (OR2.27 to 5.0) or prostate (95%CI OR9.09 (OR4.0 to 20.0)) cancers. Cancer decedents aged > 85 years had higher odds of late diagnosis (95%CI OR3.45 (OR2.63 to 4.55)), compared to those aged < 65 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Cancer decedents who were older and those with lung cancer were significantly more likely to receive late cancer diagnoses than those who were younger or who had other cancer types.

Quantifying the impact of taking medicines for primary prevention: a time-trade off study to elicit direct treatment disutility in the UK

BACKGROUND

Direct treatment disutility (DTD) represents an individual's disutility associated with the inconvenience of taking medicine over a long period of time.

OBJECTIVES

The main aim of this study was to elicit DTD values for taking a statin or a bisphosphonate for primary prevention. A secondary aim was to understand factors which influence DTD values.

METHODS

Design: We used a cross-sectional study consisting of time-trade off exercises embedded within online surveys. Respondents were asked to compare a one-off pill ('Medicine A') assumed to have no inconvenience and a daily pill ('Medicine B') over 10 years (statins) or 5 years (bisphosphonates).Setting: Individuals from National Health Service (NHS) primary care and the general population were surveyed using an online panel company.Participants: Two types of participants were recruited. First, a purposive sample of patients with experience of taking a statin (n=260) or bisphosphonate (n=100) were recruited from an NHS sampling frame. Patients needed to be aged over 30, have experience of taking the medicine of interest and have no diagnosis of dementia or of using dementia drugs. Second, a demographically balanced sample of members of the public were recruited for statins (n=376) and bisphosphonates (n=359).Primary and secondary outcome measures: Primary outcome was mean DTD. Regression analysis explored factors which could influence DTD values.

RESULTS

A total of 879 respondents were included for analysis (514 for statins and 365 for bisphosphonates). The majority of respondents reported a disutility associated with medicine use. Mean DTD for statins was 0.034 and for bisphosphonates 0.067, respectively. Respondent characteristics including age and sex did not influence DTD. Experience of bisphosphonate-use reduced reported disutilities.

CONCLUSIONS

Statins and bisphosphonates have a quantifiable DTD. The size of estimated disutilities suggest they are likely to be important for cost-effectiveness, particularly in individuals at low-risk when treated for primary prevention.

Effect of competing mortality risks on predictive performance of the QFracture risk prediction tool for major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture: external validation cohort study in a UK primary care population

Objective

To externally evaluate the QFracture risk prediction tool for predicting the risk of major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture.

Design

External validation cohort study.

Setting

UK primary care population. Linked general practice (Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) Gold), mortality registration (Office of National Statistics), and hospital inpatient (Hospital Episode Statistics) data, from 1 January 2004 to 31 March 2016.

Participants

2 747 409 women and 2 684 730 men, aged 30-99 years, with up-to-standard linked data that had passed CPRD checks for at least one year.

Main outcome measures

Two outcomes were modelled based on the QFracture: major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture. Major osteoporotic fracture was defined as any hip, distal forearm, proximal humerus, or vertebral crush fracture, from general practice, hospital discharge, and mortality data. The QFracture 10 year predicted risk of major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture was calculated, and performance evaluated versus observed 10 year risk of fracture in the whole population, and in subgroups based on age and comorbidity. QFracture calibration was examined accounting for, and not accounting for, competing risk of mortality from causes other than the major osteoporotic fracture.

Results

2 747 409 women with 95 598 major osteoporotic fractures and 36 400 hip fractures, and 2 684 730 men with 34 321 major osteoporotic fractures and 13 379 hip fractures were included in the analysis. The incidence of all fractures was higher than in the QFracture internal derivation. Competing risk of mortality was more common than fracture from middle age onwards. QFracture discrimination in the whole population was excellent or good for major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture (Harrell's C statistic in women 0.813 and 0.918, and 0.738 and 0.888 in men, respectively), but was poor to moderate in age subgroups (eg, Harrell's C statistic in women and men aged 85-99 years was 0.576 and 0.624 for major osteoporotic fractures, and 0.601 and 0.637 for hip fractures, respectively). Without accounting for competing risks, QFracture systematically under-predicted the risk of fracture in all models, and more so for major osteoporotic fracture than for hip fracture, and more so in older people. Accounting for competing risks, QFracture still under-predicted the risk of fracture in the whole population, but over-prediction was considerable in older age groups and in people with high comorbidities at high risk of fracture.

Conclusions

The QFracture risk prediction tool systematically under-predicted the risk of fracture (because of incomplete determination of fracture rates) and over-predicted the risk in older people and in those with more comorbidities (because of competing mortality). The use of QFracture in its current form needs to be reviewed, particularly in people at high risk of death from other causes.

Cue-based versus scheduled feeding for preterm infants transitioning from tube to oral feeding: the Cubs mixed-methods feasibility study

BACKGROUND

There is a lack of evidence of the effect of cue-based feeding compared with scheduled feeding on important outcomes for preterm infants.

OBJECTIVES

The objectives were as follows: (1) to describe the characteristics, components, theoretical basis and outcomes of approaches to feeding preterm infants transitioning from tube to oral feeding; (2) to identify operational policies, barriers and facilitators, and staff and parents' educational needs in neonatal units implementing cue-based feeding; (3) to co-produce an intervention for feeding preterm infants in response to feeding cues; (4) to appraise the willingness of parents and staff to implement and sustain the intervention; (5) to assess associated costs of implementing cue-based feeding; (6) to determine the feasibility and acceptability of a future trial; (7) to scope existing data-recording systems and potential outcome measures; and (8) to determine stakeholders' views of whether or not a randomised controlled trial of this approach is feasible.

DESIGN

This was a mixed-methods intervention development and feasibility study comprising (1) a systematic review, case studies, qualitative research and stakeholder consensus; (2) the co-production of the intervention; (3) a mixed-methods feasibility study; and (4) an assessment of stakeholder preferences for a future evaluation.

SETTING

Three neonatal units in the UK (two level 3 units and one level 2 unit).

PARTICIPANTS

Developmentally normal, clinically stable preterm infants receiving enteral feeds (n = 50), parents (n = 15 pre intervention development; n = 14 in the feasibility study) and health-care practitioners (n = 54 pre intervention development; n = 16 in the feasibility study).

INTERVENTION

An evidence-informed multicomponent intervention comprising training, a feeding protocol, feeding assessment tools, supplementary training materials [including posters, a film and a narrated PowerPoint (Microsoft Corporation, Redmond, WA, USA) presentation] and the 'Our Feeding Journey' document.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The main outcome measures were recruitment and screening rates, infant weight gain, duration of the intervention, feeding outcomes, implementation outcomes (contextual facilitators and barriers, acceptability, adoption, appropriateness and fidelity) and stakeholder preferences for a future evaluation.

RESULTS

The systematic review of 25 studies concluded that evidence in favour of cue-based feeding should be treated cautiously. The case studies and qualitative research highlighted contextual barriers to and facilitators of the implementation of cue-based feeding. The telephone survey found that many neonatal units are considering implementing cue-based feeding. We recruited 37% of eligible infants, and there was good retention in the study until discharge but a high loss to follow-up at 2 weeks post discharge. The mean number of days from intervention to transition to full oral feeding was 10.8, and the mean daily change in weight gain was 25 g. The intervention was acceptable to parents and staff, although there was dissatisfaction with the study documentation. Intervention training did not reach all staff. A cluster-randomised design with a composite outcome was suggested by stakeholders for a future study.

LIMITATIONS

The intervention was available only in English. Intervention training did not reach all staff. There was low recruitment to qualitative interviews and observations. Only a small number of medical staff engaged in either the training or the interviews.

CONCLUSIONS

It is feasible to implement a cue-based feeding intervention with improved training and documentation. Further work is needed to assess the feasibility of a future trial, noting evidence of existing lack of equipoise.

FUTURE WORK

The next steps are to digitalise the intervention and conduct a survey of all neonatal units in the UK.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42018097317 and ISRCTN13414304.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 74. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

A pre-operative prognostic model predicting all cause and cause specific mortality for women presenting with invasive breast cancer

PURPOSE

The aim of this study is to develop a pre-operative prognostic model based on known pre-operative factors.

METHODS

A database of ultrasound (US) lesions undergoing biopsy documented US lesion size, stiffness, and patient source prospectively. Women with invasive cancer presenting between 2010 and 2015 were the study group. Breast and axillary core results and ER, PR and HER receptor status were collected prospectively. Assessment of US skin thickening, US distal enhancement and presence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) was performed retrospectively. Patient survival and cause of death were ascertained from computer records. Predictive models for (i) all-cause mortality (ACM) and (ii) breast cancer death (BCD) were built and then validated using bootstrap k-fold cross-validation. A comparison of predictive performance was made between a full cause-specific Cox model, a sub cause-specific Cox model, and a full Fine-Gray sub-distribution hazard model.

RESULTS

1136 patients were included in the study. The median follow-up time was 6.2 years. 125 (11%) women died from breast cancer and 155 (14%) died from other causes. For the prediction of BCD, the cause-specific Cox sub-model performed the best. The time dependent AUC begins above 0.91 in year one to 3 reducing to 0.83 in year 6. The factors included in the Cox sub model were tumour size, skin thickening, source of detection, tumour grade, ER status, pre-operative nodal metastasis and CKD.

CONCLUSION

We have shown that a model based on preoperative factors can predict BCD. Such prediction if externally validated and incorporating treatment data could be useful for treatment planning and patient counselling.

Understanding health-care outcomes of older people with cognitive impairment and/or dementia admitted to hospital: a mixed-methods study

Background

Cognitive impairment is common in older people admitted to hospital, but previous research has focused on single conditions.

Objective

This project sits in phase 0/1 of the Medical Research Council Framework for the Development and Evaluation of Complex Interventions. It aims to develop an understanding of current health-care outcomes. This will be used in the future development of a multidomain intervention for people with confusion (dementia and cognitive impairment) in general hospitals. The research was conducted from January 2015 to June 2018 and used data from people admitted between 2012 and 2013.

Design

For the review of outcomes, the systematic review identified peer-reviewed quantitative epidemiology measuring prevalence and associations with outcomes. Screening for duplication and relevance was followed by full-text review, quality assessment and a narrative review (141 papers). A survey sought opinion on the key outcomes for people with dementia and/or confusion and their carers in the acute hospital (n = 78). For the analysis of outcomes including cost, the prospective cohort study was in a medical admissions unit in an acute hospital in one Scottish health board covering 10% of the Scottish population. The participants (n = 6724) were older people (aged ≥ 65 years) with or without a cognitive spectrum disorder who were admitted as medical emergencies between January 2012 and December 2013 and who underwent a structured nurse assessment. ‘Cognitive spectrum disorder’ was defined as any combination of delirium, known dementia or an Abbreviated Mental Test score of < 8 out of 10 points. The main outcome measures were living at home 30 days after discharge, mortality within 2 years of admission, length of stay, re-admission within 2 years of admission and cost.

Data sources

Scottish Morbidity Records 01 was linked to the Older Persons Routine Acute Assessment data set.

Results

In the systematic review, methodological heterogeneity, especially concerning diagnostic criteria, means that there is significant overlap in conditions of patients presenting to general hospitals with confusion. Patients and their families expect that patients are discharged in the same or a better condition than they were in on admission or, failing that, that they have a satisfactory experience of their admission. Cognitive spectrum disorders were present in more than one-third of patients aged ≥ 65 years, and in over half of those aged ≥ 85 years. Outcomes were worse in those patients with cognitive spectrum disorders than in those without: length of stay 25.0 vs. 11.8 days, 30-day mortality 13.6% vs. 9.0%, 1-year mortality 40.0% vs. 26.0%, 1-year mortality or re-admission 62.4% vs. 51.5%, respectively (all p < 0.01). There was relatively little difference by cognitive spectrum disorder type; for example, the presence of any cognitive spectrum disorder was associated with an increased mortality over the entire period of follow-up, but with different temporal patterns depending on the type of cognitive spectrum disorder. The cost of admission was higher for those with cognitive spectrum disorders, but the average daily cost was lower.

Limitations

A lack of diagnosis and/or standardisation of diagnosis for dementia and/or delirium was a limitation for the systematic review, the quantitative study and the economic study. The economic study was limited to in-hospital costs as data for social or informal care costs were unavailable. The survey was conducted online, limiting its reach to older carers and those people with cognitive spectrum disorders.

Conclusions

Cognitive spectrum disorders are common in older inpatients and are associated with considerably worse health-care outcomes, with significant overlap between individual cognitive spectrum disorders. This suggests the need for health-care systems to systematically identify and develop care pathways for older people with cognitive spectrum disorders, and avoid focusing on only condition-specific pathways.

Future work

Development and evaluation of a multidomain intervention for the management of patients with cognitive spectrum disorders in hospital.

Study registration

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42015024492.

Funding

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Services and Delivery Research programme and will be published in full in Health Services and Delivery Research; Vol. 9, No. 8. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Reaching mEthadone users Attending Community pHarmacies with HCV: an international cluster randomised controlled trial protocol (REACH HCV)

INTRODUCTION

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a global public health threat, and novel models of care are required to treat those currently or previously at highest risk of infection, particularly persons who inject drugs (PWID; ever injected), as conventional healthcare models do not have the reach to deliver cure of HCV to disadvantaged, disproportionately affected communities. In Western Europe and Australasia, it is estimated that HCV affects between 0.4% and 1.0% of the regions' populations, accordingly, it affects between 0.4% and 0.7% of the populations of countries in this study (Scotland, Wales and Australia). Reaching mEthadone users Attending Community pHarmacies with HCV (REACH HCV) will evaluate community pharmacy-based diagnostic outreach and HCV treatment against conventional HCV testing and treatment pathways for clients receiving opioid substitution therapy (OST) in community pharmacies.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

REACH HCV is an international multicentre cluster randomised controlled trial with sites in Scotland, Wales and Australia. The sites are community pharmacies which are randomised equally to one of two pathways: the pharmacy intervention pathway or the education-only (control) pathway. Participants are recruited from OST clients in these pharmacies.In the pharmacy intervention pathway, participants receive a rapid point-of-care HCV PCR test in their pharmacy by a study outreach nurse. If positive, direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) are delivered to participants via their pharmacist in line with their OST schedule.In the education-only pathway, pharmacists counsel OST clients on HCV and refer them to the nearest nurse-led clinic or general practitioner offering HCV testing according to standard care protocols. If positive, DAAs are delivered as in the intervention pathway.The primary endpoint for both pathways is sustained viral response at 12 weeks post-treatment . Secondary outcomes are: cost-efficacy by pathway; participants tested by pathway; adherence to therapy by pathway and impact of blood test results on treatment decisions.A statistical analysis plan will be finalised prior to data lock. Analysis will be by intention to treat (ITT) to show superiority. Modified ITT analysis will also be undertaken to explore the steps in the pathways.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The trial received ethical favourable opinion from the East of Scotland Research Ethics Committee 2 (19/ES/0025) for UK sites and approval from the Alfred Hospital Ethics Committee (148/19) for Australian sites and complies with principles of Good Clinical Practice. Final results will be presented in peer-reviewed journals and at relevant conferences.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ClinicalTrials.gov Registry NCT03935906.

PROTOCOL VERSION

V.4.0-19 March 2020.

A multicentre parallel-group randomised trial assessing multiparametric MRI characterisation and image-guided biopsy of prostate in men suspected of having prostate cancer: MULTIPROS study protocol

BACKGROUND

There is growing evidence suggesting that multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) is a marker for prostate cancer (PCa) aggressiveness and could be used to plan treatment. Improving early detection of clinically significant PCa with pre-biopsy mpMRI would very likely have advantages including optimising the diagnosis and treatment of diseases and diminishing patient anxiety.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

This is a prospective multicentre study of pre-biopsy mpMRI diagnostic test accuracy with subgroup randomisation at a 1:1 ratio with respect to transrectal ultrasound (TRUS) and MRI/US fusion-guided biopsy or TRUS-only biopsy. It is designed as a single-gate study with a single set of inclusion criteria. The total duration of the recruitment phase was 48 months; however, this has now been extended to 66 months. A sample size of 600 participants is required.

DISCUSSION

The primary objective is to determine whether mpMRI can improve PCa detection and characterisation. The key secondary objective is to determine whether MRI/US fusion-guided biopsy can reduce the number of false-negative biopsies. Ethical approval was obtained from the East of Scotland Research Ethics Committee 1 (14/ES/1070) on 20 November 2014. The results of this study will be used for publication and presentation in national and international journals and at scientific conferences.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02745496. Retrospectively registered on 20 April 2016.

Evaluating the population impact of hepatitis C direct acting antiviral treatment as prevention for people who inject drugs (EPIToPe) - a natural experiment (protocol)

INTRODUCTION

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is the second largest contributor to liver disease in the UK, with injecting drug use as the main risk factor among the estimated 200 000 people currently infected. Despite effective prevention interventions, chronic HCV prevalence remains around 40% among people who inject drugs (PWID). New direct-acting antiviral (DAA) HCV therapies combine high cure rates (>90%) and short treatment duration (8 to 12 weeks). Theoretical mathematical modelling evidence suggests HCV treatment scale-up can prevent transmission and substantially reduce HCV prevalence/incidence among PWID. Our primary aim is to generate empirical evidence on the effectiveness of HCV 'Treatment as Prevention' (TasP) in PWID.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We plan to establish a natural experiment with Tayside, Scotland, as a single intervention site where HCV care pathways are being expanded (including specialist drug treatment clinics, needle and syringe programmes (NSPs), pharmacies and prison) and HCV treatment for PWID is being rapidly scaled-up. Other sites in Scotland and England will act as potential controls. Over 2 years from 2017/2018, at least 500 PWID will be treated in Tayside, which simulation studies project will reduce chronic HCV prevalence among PWID by 62% (from 26% to 10%) and HCV incidence will fall by approximately 2/3 (from 4.2 per 100 person-years (p100py) to 1.4 p100py). Treatment response and re-infection rates will be monitored. We will conduct focus groups and interviews with service providers and patients that accept and decline treatment to identify barriers and facilitators in implementing TasP. We will conduct longitudinal interviews with up to 40 PWID to assess whether successful HCV treatment alters their perspectives on and engagement with drug treatment and recovery. Trained peer researchers will be involved in data collection and dissemination. The primary outcome - chronic HCV prevalence in PWID - is measured using information from the Needle Exchange Surveillance Initiative survey in Scotland and the Unlinked Anonymous Monitoring Programme in England, conducted at least four times before and three times during and after the intervention. We will adapt Bayesian synthetic control methods (specifically the Causal Impact Method) to generate the cumulative impact of the intervention on chronic HCV prevalence and incidence. We will use a dynamic HCV transmission and economic model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the HCV TasP intervention, and to estimate the contribution of the scale-up in HCV treatment to observe changes in HCV prevalence. Through the qualitative data we will systematically explore key mechanisms of TasP real world implementation from provider and patient perspectives to develop a manual for scaling up HCV treatment in other settings. We will compare qualitative accounts of drug treatment and recovery with a 'virtual cohort' of PWID linking information on HCV treatment with Scottish Drug treatment databases to test whether DAA treatment improves drug treatment outcomes.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Extending HCV community care pathways is covered by ethics (ERADICATE C, ISRCTN27564683, Super DOT C Trial clinicaltrials.gov: NCT02706223). Ethical approval for extra data collection from patients including health utilities and qualitative interviews has been granted (REC ref: 18/ES/0128) and ISCRCTN registration has been completed (ISRCTN72038467). Our findings will have direct National Health Service and patient relevance; informing prioritisation given to early HCV treatment for PWID. We will present findings to practitioners and policymakers, and support design of an evaluation of HCV TasP in England.

Abdominal massage plus advice, compared with advice only, for neurogenic bowel dysfunction in MS: a RCT

BACKGROUND

Between 50% and 80% of people with multiple sclerosis (PwMS) experience neurogenic bowel dysfunction (NBD) (i.e. constipation and faecal incontinence) that affects quality of life and can lead to hospitalisation.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of abdominal massage plus advice on bowel symptoms on PwMS compared with advice only. A process evaluation investigated the factors that affected the clinical effectiveness and possible implementation of the different treatments.

DESIGN

A randomised controlled trial with process evaluation and health economic components. Outcome analysis was undertaken blind.

SETTING

The trial took place in 12 UK hospitals.

PARTICIPANTS

PwMS who had 'bothersome' NBD.

INTERVENTION

Following individualised training, abdominal massage was undertaken daily for 6 weeks (intervention group). Advice on good bowel management as per the Multiple Sclerosis Society advice booklet was provided to both groups. All participants received weekly telephone calls from the research nurse.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome was the difference between the intervention and control groups in change in the NBD score from baseline to week 24. Secondary outcomes were measured via a bowel diary, adherence diary, the Constipation Scoring System, patient resource questionnaire and the EuroQol-5 Dimensions, five-level version (EQ-5D-5L).

RESULTS

A total of 191 participants were finalised, 189 of whom were randomised (two participants were finalised in error) (control group, n = 99; intervention group, n = 90) and an intention-to-treat analysis was performed. The mean age was 52 years (standard deviation 10.83 years), 81% (n = 154) were female and 11% (n = 21) were wheelchair dependent. Fifteen participants from the intervention group and five from the control group were lost to follow-up. The change in NBD score by week 24 demonstrated no significant difference between groups [mean difference total score -1.64, 95% confidence interval (CI) -3.32 to 0.04; p = 0.0558]; there was a significant difference between groups in the change in the frequency of stool evacuation per week (mean difference 0.62, 95% CI 0.03 to 1.21; p = 0.039) and in the number of times per week that participants felt that they emptied their bowels completely (mean difference 1.08, 95% CI 0.41 to 1.76; p = 0.002), in favour of the intervention group. Of participant interviewees, 75% reported benefits, for example less difficulty passing stool, more complete evacuations, less bloated, improved appetite, and 85% continued with the massage. A cost-utility analysis conducted from a NHS and patient cost perspective found in the imputed sample with bootstrapping a mean incremental outcome effect of the intervention relative to usual care of -0.002 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) (95% CI -0.029 to 0.027 QALYs). In the same imputed sample with bootstrapping, the mean incremental cost effect of the intervention relative to usual care was £56.50 (95% CI -£372.62 to £415.68). No adverse events were reported. Limitations include unequal randomisation, dropout and the possibility of ineffective massage technique.

CONCLUSION

The increment in the primary outcome favoured the intervention group, but it was small and not statistically significant. The economic analysis identified that the intervention was dominated by the control group. Given the small improvement in the primary outcome, but not in terms of QALYs, a low-cost version of the intervention might be considered worthwhile by some patients.

FUTURE WORK

Research is required to establish possible mechanisms of action and modes of massage delivery.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN85007023 and NCT03166007.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 22, No. 58. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Adaptation and Implementation of a Mobile Phone-Based Remote Symptom Monitoring System for People With Cancer in Europe

BACKGROUND

There has been an international shift in health care, which has seen an increasing focus and development of technological and personalized at-home interventions that aim to improve health outcomes and patient-clinician communication. However, there is a notable lack of empirical evidence describing the preparatory steps of adapting and implementing technology of this kind across multiple countries and clinical settings.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to describe the steps undertaken in the preparation of a multinational, multicenter randomized controlled trial (RCT) to test a mobile phone-based remote symptom monitoring system, that is, Advanced Symptom Management System (ASyMS), designed to enhance management of chemotherapy toxicities among people with cancer receiving adjuvant chemotherapy versus standard cancer center care.

METHODS

There were 13 cancer centers across 5 European countries (Austria, Greece, Ireland, Norway, and the United Kingdom). Multiple steps were undertaken, including a scoping review of empirical literature and clinical guidelines, translation and linguistic validation of study materials, development of standardized international care procedures, and the integration and evaluation of the technology within each cancer center.

RESULTS

The ASyMS was successfully implemented and deployed in clinical practices across 5 European countries. The rigorous and simultaneous steps undertaken by the research team highlighted the strengths of the system in clinical practice, as well as the clinical and technical changes required to meet the diverse needs of its intended users within each country, before the commencement of the RCT.

CONCLUSIONS

Adapting and implementing this multinational, multicenter system required close attention to diverse considerations and unique challenges primarily related to communication and clinical and technical issues. Success was dependent on collaborative and transparent communication among academics, the technology industry, translation partners, patients, and clinicians as well as a simultaneous and rigorous methodological approach within the 5 relevant countries.

The eSMART study protocol: a randomised controlled trial to evaluate electronic symptom management using the advanced symptom management system (ASyMS) remote technology for patients with cancer

INTRODUCTION

While some evidence exists that real-time remote symptom monitoring devices can decrease morbidity and prevent unplanned admissions in oncology patients, overall, these studies have significant methodological weaknesses. The electronic Symptom Management using the Advanced Symptom Management System (ASyMS) Remote Technology (eSMART) study is designed to specifically address these weaknesses with an appropriately powered, repeated-measures, parallel-group stratified randomised controlled trial of oncology patients.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

A total of 1108 patients scheduled to commence first-line chemotherapy (CTX) for breast, colorectal or haematological cancer will be recruited from multiple sites across five European countries.Patients will be randomised (1:1) to the ASyMS intervention (intervention group) or to standard care currently available at each site (control group). Patients in the control and intervention groups will complete a demographic and clinical questionnaire, as well as a set of valid and reliable electronic patient-reported outcome measures at enrolment, after each of their CTX cycles (up to a maximum of six cycles) and at 3, 6, 9 and 12 months after completion of their sixth cycle of CTX. Outcomes that will be assessed include symptom burden (primary outcome), quality of life, supportive care needs, anxiety, self-care self-efficacy, work limitations and cost effectiveness and, from a health professional perspective, changes in clinical practice (secondary outcomes).

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval will be obtained prior to the implementation of all major study amendments. Applications will be submitted to all of the ethics committees that granted initial approval.eSMART received approval from the relevant ethics committees at all of the clinical sites across the five participating countries. In collaboration with the European Cancer Patient Coalition (ECPC), the trial results will be disseminated through publications in scientific journals, presentations at international conferences, and postings on the eSMART website and other relevant clinician and consumer websites; establishment of an eSMART website (www.esmartproject.eu) with publicly accessible general information; creation of an eSMART Twitter Handle, and production of a toolkit for implementing/utilising the ASyMS technology in a variety of clinical practices and other transferable health care contexts.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT02356081.

Combining Propensity Score and Random Coefficient Modelling as an Approach to Analyse Complex Longitudinal Data

ABSTRACT ObjectivesWe looked for an approach to analyze/visualize a set of repeated measures of renal laboratory data (eGFR [estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate] from an observational population-based data set) as safety parameters in a longitudinal design and calculate annual changes in different sub-cohorts. Previous meta-analyses had struggled to address this problem (due to poor data quality and strong heterogeneity in underlying historical studies) and previous large population-based observational studies had only looked into binary outcomes. Particular challenges lay (1) in the complexity of the data set with irregularly spaced observation points, (2) in the observational character of the data with associated bias and confounding by indication and co-medication and (3) in the change of lab method during the observation period. ResultsOut of a population base of 400.000 we analysed linked longitudinal data of more than 1000 eligible patients with over 1000.000 prescription records of index drug or co-prescription drugs. Data were provided by the Dundee University Health Informatics Centre (HIC). We addressed the differences in covariates (which typically can lead to biased estimates of treatment effects in observational studies) via individual propensity scores (to reduce this bias by balancing the covariates in the two groups) and a hierarchical modelling approach. A Random Coefficient Model (via proc mixed in SAS 9.3) proved a much more powerful statistical tool than analysis of covariance of the summary measure during follow-up, particularly as the latter approach is less efficient when applied to longitudinal data with missing data points and irregularly spaced repeated measures.Visualization was achieved with the SAS 9.3 GPLOT procedure combined with a spline function. The historical change in lab method was addressed via a conversion of lab results to an internationally recognized standard (IDMS aligned method). We were able to achieve plausible and more precise estimates of the annual decline in eGFR in the patient group of interest than previous attempts from other research publications. This led to a publication in a high profile journal. ConclusionOur approach of combining a Propensity Score and Random Coefficient Modelling was successful to answer a question in drug safety using repeated measurement data from a longitudinal observational population based data set. This approach may be useful for other research questions in Drug Safety or in Comparative Clinical Effectiveness Research for continuous outcome measures.

Abdominal massage for neurogenic bowel dysfunction in people with multiple sclerosis (AMBER - Abdominal Massage for Bowel Dysfunction Effectiveness Research): study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a life-long condition primarily affecting younger adults. Neurogenic bowel dysfunction (NBD) occurs in 50-80% of these patients and is the term used to describe constipation and faecal incontinence, which often co-exist. Data from a pilot study suggested feasibility of using abdominal massage for the relief of constipation, but the effectiveness remains uncertain.

METHODS/DESIGN

This is a multi-centred patient randomised superiority trial comparing an experimental strategy of once daily abdominal massage for 6 weeks against a control strategy of no massage in people with MS who have stated that their constipation is bothersome. The primary outcome is the Neurogenic Bowel Dysfunction Score at 24 weeks. Both groups will receive optimised advice plus the MS Society booklet on bowel management in MS, and will continue to receive usual care. Participants and their clinicians will not be blinded to the allocated intervention. Outcome measures are primarily self-reported and submitted anonymously. Central trial staff who will manage and analyse the trial data will be unaware of participant allocations. Analysis will follow intention-to-treat principles.

DISCUSSION

This pragmatic randomised controlled trial will demonstrate if abdominal massage is an effective, cost-effective and viable addition to the treatment of NBD in people with MS.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov, ISRCTN85007023 . Registered on 10 June 2014.

Achieving Good Outcomes for Asthma Living (GOAL): mixed methods feasibility and pilot cluster randomised controlled trial of a practical intervention for eliciting, setting and achieving goals for adults with asthma

BACKGROUND

Despite being a core component of self-management, goal setting is rarely used in routine care. We piloted a primary care, nurse-led intervention called Achieving Good Outcomes for Asthma Living (GOAL) for adults with asthma. Patients were invited to identify and prioritise their goals in preparation for discussing and negotiating an action/coping plan with the nurse at a routine asthma review.

METHODS

The 18-month mixed methods feasibility cluster pilot trial stratified and then randomised practices to deliver usual care (UC) or a goal-setting intervention (GOAL). Practice asthma nurses and adult patients with active asthma were invited to participate. The primary outcome was asthma-specific quality of life. Semi-structured interviews with a purposive patient sample (n = 14) and 10 participating nurses explored GOAL perception. The constructs of normalisation process theory (NPT) were used to analyse and interpret data.

RESULTS

Ten practices participated (five in each arm), exceeding our target of eight. However, only 48 patients (target 80) were recruited (18 in GOAL practices). At 6 months post-intervention, the difference in mean asthma-related quality of life (mAQLQ) between intervention and control was 0.1 (GOAL 6.20: SD 0.76 (CI 5.76-6.65) versus UC 6.1: SD 0.81 (CI 5.63-6.57)), less than the minimal clinically important difference (MCID) of 0.5. However, change from baseline was stronger in the intervention group: at 6 months the change in the emotions sub-score was 0.8 for intervention versus 0.2 for control. Costs were higher in the intervention group by £22.17. Routine review with goal setting was considered more holistic, enhancing rapport and enabling patients to become active rather than passive participants in healthcare. However, time was a major barrier for nurses, who admitted to screening out patient goals they believed were unrelated to asthma.

CONCLUSIONS

The difference in AQLQ score from baseline is larger in the intervention arm than the control, indicating the intervention may have impact if appropriately strengthened. The GOAL intervention changed the review dynamic and was well received by patients, but necessitated additional time, which was problematic in the confines of the traditional nurse appointment. Modification to recruitment methods and further development of the intervention are needed before proceeding to a definitive cluster randomised controlled trial.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN18912042 . Registered on 26 June 2012.

Safer Prescribing--A Trial of Education, Informatics, and Financial Incentives

BACKGROUND

High-risk prescribing and preventable drug-related complications are common in primary care. We evaluated whether the rates of high-risk prescribing by primary care clinicians and the related clinical outcomes would be reduced by a complex intervention.

METHODS

In this cluster-randomized, stepped-wedge trial conducted in Tayside, Scotland, we randomly assigned participating primary care practices to various start dates for a 48-week intervention comprising professional education, informatics to facilitate review, and financial incentives for practices to review patients' charts to assess appropriateness. The primary outcome was patient-level exposure to any of nine measures of high-risk prescribing of nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) or selected antiplatelet agents (e.g., NSAID prescription in a patient with chronic kidney disease or coprescription of an NSAID and an oral anticoagulant without gastroprotection). Prespecified secondary outcomes included the incidence of related hospital admissions. Analyses were performed according to the intention-to-treat principle, with the use of mixed-effect models to account for clustering in the data.

RESULTS

A total of 34 practices underwent randomization, 33 of which completed the study. Data were analyzed for 33,334 patients at risk at one or more points in the preintervention period and for 33,060 at risk at one or more points in the intervention period. Targeted high-risk prescribing was significantly reduced, from a rate of 3.7% (1102 of 29,537 patients at risk) immediately before the intervention to 2.2% (674 of 30,187) at the end of the intervention (adjusted odds ratio, 0.63; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.57 to 0.68; P<0.001). The rate of hospital admissions for gastrointestinal ulcer or bleeding was significantly reduced from the preintervention period to the intervention period (from 55.7 to 37.0 admissions per 10,000 person-years; rate ratio, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.51 to 0.86; P=0.002), as was the rate of admissions for heart failure (from 707.7 to 513.5 admissions per 10,000 person-years; rate ratio, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.56 to 0.95; P=0.02), but admissions for acute kidney injury were not (101.9 and 86.0 admissions per 10,000 person-years, respectively; rate ratio, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.68 to 1.09; P=0.19).

CONCLUSIONS

A complex intervention combining professional education, informatics, and financial incentives reduced the rate of high-risk prescribing of antiplatelet medications and NSAIDs and may have improved clinical outcomes. (Funded by the Scottish Government Chief Scientist Office; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01425502.).

Feasibility study of the effects of art as a creative engagement intervention during stroke rehabilitation on improvement of psychosocial outcomes: study protocol for a single blind randomized controlled trial: the ACES study

Background

Benefits of art participation after stroke are becoming increasingly recognized. Qualitative studies suggest that participation in visual arts creative engagement interventions (CEIs) during rehabilitation after stroke may improve mood, self-esteem, hope and some aspects of physical recovery. This study examines the feasibility of undertaking a randomized controlled trial of a CEI delivered by artists within in-patient stroke rehabilitation to test effectiveness.

Methods/Design

This trial is a two arm, single-blind, randomized controlled feasibility trial within in-patient stroke rehabilitation. We will recruit 80 patients receiving stroke rehabilitation in two stroke units in a health board area of Scotland (40 patients in each arm). Intervention arm participants will receive a visual-arts based CEI facilitated by experienced artists. Artists will follow an intervention protocol with specific components that enable participants to set, achieve and review artistic goals. Participants will receive up to eight intervention sessions, four within a group and four one-to-one with the artist. Control group participants will receive usual care only.

Data collection will occur at baseline, post-intervention and three-month follow-up. Stroke-related health status is the primary outcome; mood, self-esteem, self-efficacy, perceived recovery control and hope are secondary outcomes. Semi-structured interviews will be conducted with purposively selected patients, artists and healthcare staff to elicit views and experiences of the intervention and feasibility and acceptability of trial processes. Recruitment rates, retention rates and patient preference for art participation will also be collected. Data will indicate, with confidence intervals, the proportion of patients choosing or refusing participation in the CEI and will allow calculation of recruitment rates for a future definitive trial. Summary data will indicate potential variability, magnitude and direction of difference between groups. Findings will inform sample size calculations for a definitive trial. Thematic analysis of qualitative data will be managed using the Framework Approach. Framework is an analytical approach for qualitative data, commonly used in policy and medical research.

Discussion

If shown to demonstrate effects, this intervention has the potential to address aspects of stroke recovery previously. Not routinely addressed in rehabilitation.

Trial registration

Registered with Clinical Trials.Gov: NCT02085226 on 6th March 2014.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1745-6215-15-380) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Making clinical trials more relevant: improving and validating the PRECIS tool for matching trial design decisions to trial purpose

Background

If you want to know which of two or more healthcare interventions is most effective, the randomised controlled trial is the design of choice. Randomisation, however, does not itself promote the applicability of the results to situations other than the one in which the trial was done. A tool published in 2009, PRECIS (PRagmatic Explanatory Continuum Indicator Summaries) aimed to help trialists design trials that produced results matched to the aim of the trial, be that supporting clinical decision-making, or increasing knowledge of how an intervention works. Though generally positive, groups evaluating the tool have also found weaknesses, mainly that its inter-rater reliability is not clear, that it needs a scoring system and that some new domains might be needed. The aim of the study is to: Produce an improved and validated version of the PRECIS tool. Use this tool to compare the internal validity of, and effect estimates from, a set of explanatory and pragmatic trials matched by intervention.

Methods

The study has four phases. Phase 1 involves brainstorming and a two-round Delphi survey of authors who cited PRECIS. In Phase 2, the Delphi results will then be discussed and alternative versions of PRECIS-2 developed and user-tested by experienced trialists. Phase 3 will evaluate the validity and reliability of the most promising PRECIS-2 candidate using a sample of 15 to 20 trials rated by 15 international trialists. We will assess inter-rater reliability, and raters’ subjective global ratings of pragmatism compared to PRECIS-2 to assess convergent and face validity. Phase 4, to determine if pragmatic trials sacrifice internal validity in order to achieve applicability, will compare the internal validity and effect estimates of matched explanatory and pragmatic trials of the same intervention, condition and participants. Effect sizes for the trials will then be compared in a meta-regression. The Cochrane Risk of Bias scores will be compared with the PRECIS-2 scores of pragmatism.

Discussion

We have concrete suggestions for improving PRECIS and a growing list of enthusiastic individuals interested in contributing to this work. By early 2014 we expect to have a validated PRECIS-2.

Patient, practice and organisational influences on asthma control: observational data from a national study on primary care in the United Kingdom

BACKGROUND

Achieving asthma control is central to optimising patient quality of life and clinical outcome. Contemporary models of chronic disease management across a variety of countries point to the importance of micro, meso and macro level influences on patient care and outcome. However, asthma outcomes research has almost invariably concentrated on identifying and addressing patient predictors. Little is known about higher level organisational influences.

OBJECTIVE

This paper explores the contribution of organisational factors on poor asthma control, allowing for patient factors, at three organisational levels: the individual patient, local service deliverers, and strategic regional providers.

DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Prospective cross-sectional observational cohort study of 64,929 people with asthma from 1205 primary care practices spread throughout the United Kingdom (UK). Patient clinical data were recorded during a routine asthma review.

METHOD

Data were analysed using simple descriptive, multiple regression and complex multi-level modelling techniques, accounting for practice clustering of patients.

RESULTS

Poor asthma control was associated with areas of higher deprivation [regression coefficient 0.026 (95% confidence intervals 0.006; 0.046)] and urban practice [-0.155 (-0.275; -0.035)] but not all local and regional variation was explained by the data. In contrast, patient level predictors of poor control were: short acting bronchodilator overuse [2.129 (2.091; 2.164)], days-off due to asthma [1.203 (1.148; 1.258)], PEFR<80 [0.76 (0.666; 0.854)], non-use of a self-management plan (SMP) [0.554 (0.515; 0.593)], poor inhaler technique [0.53 (0.475; 0.585)], poor medication compliance [0.385 (-0.007; 0.777)], and gender [0.314 (0.281; 0.347)]. Pattern of medication use, smoking history, age, body mass index (BMI), and health service resource use were also significant factors for predicting control.

CONCLUSIONS

Targeting of health service resource requires knowledge of the factors associated with poor control of asthma symptoms. In the UK the contribution of local and regional structures appears minimal in explaining variation in asthma outcomes. However, unexplained variation in the data suggests other unrecorded factors may play a part. While patient personal characteristics (including self-management plan use, inhaler technique, medication compliance) appear to be the predominant influence the complex nature of the disease means that some, perhaps more subtle, influences are affecting the variability at all levels and this variance needs to be explored. Further research in other international contexts is required to identify the likely applicability of these findings to other health care systems.

A cluster randomised stepped wedge trial to evaluate the effectiveness of a multifaceted information technology-based intervention in reducing high-risk prescribing of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and antiplatelets in primary medical care: the DQIP study protocol

Background

High-risk prescribing of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) and antiplatelet agents accounts for a significant proportion of hospital admissions due to preventable adverse drug events. The recently completed PINCER trial has demonstrated that a one-off pharmacist-led information technology (IT)-based intervention can significantly reduce high-risk prescribing in primary care, but there is evidence that effects decrease over time and employing additional pharmacists to facilitate change may not be sustainable.

Methods/design

We will conduct a cluster randomised controlled with a stepped wedge design in 40 volunteer general practices in two Scottish health boards. Eligible practices are those that are using the INPS Vision clinical IT system, and have agreed to have relevant medication-related data to be automatically extracted from their electronic medical records. All practices (clusters) that agree to take part will receive the data-driven quality improvement in primary care (DQIP) intervention, but will be randomised to one of 10 start dates. The DQIP intervention has three components: a web-based informatics tool that provides weekly updated feedback of targeted prescribing at practice level, prompts the review of individual patients affected, and summarises each patient's relevant risk factors and prescribing; an outreach visit providing education on targeted prescribing and training in the use of the informatics tool; and a fixed payment of 350 GBP (560 USD; 403 EUR) up front and a small payment of 15 GBP (24 USD; 17 EUR) for each patient reviewed in the 12 months of the intervention. We hypothesise that the DQIP intervention will reduce a composite of nine previously validated measures of high-risk prescribing. Due to the nature of the intervention, it is not possible to blind practices, the core research team, or the data analyst. However, outcome assessment is entirely objective and automated. There will additionally be a process and economic evaluation alongside the main trial.

Discussion

The DQIP intervention is an example of a potentially sustainable safety improvement intervention that builds on the existing National Health Service IT-infrastructure to facilitate systematic management of high-risk prescribing by existing practice staff. Although the focus in this trial is on Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and antiplatelets, we anticipate that the tested intervention would be generalisable to other types of prescribing if shown to be effective.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov, dossier number: NCT01425502

Do managed clinical networks improve quality of diabetes care? Evidence from a retrospective mixed methods evaluation

PROBLEM

System-wide improvement of chronic disease care is challenging because it requires collaboration and communication across organisational and professional boundaries. Managed clinical networks are one potential solution, but there is little evidence of their effectiveness.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Retrospective, mixed-methods evaluation of the form and impact of quality improvement in the Tayside Diabetes Managed Clinical Network (MCN) 1998-2005.

STRATEGIES FOR CHANGE

Progressive implementation of multiple quality improvement strategies predominately directed at individuals and clinical teams (guideline development and dissemination, education, clinical audit, encouragement of multidisciplinary team working, task redesign). Information technology played an important role in supporting QI activity, but participants identified it as facilitative rather than delivering QI by itself. More important was achieving widespread clinical engagement through persuasion and appeal to shared professional values by clinical leaders.

EFFECTS OF CHANGE

Simple process measures such as glycated haemoglobin measurement rapidly improved. More complex process measures such as eye screening improved more slowly, and were more dependent on redesign of the care pathway. Improvement was greater for type 2 than type 1 diabetes. Significant shifts of care for type 2 diabetes into primary care were achieved, but were harder to achieve without additional resources.

LESSONS LEARNT

Delivering better care to whole populations across organisational and professional boundaries required sustained work over long periods, and at all levels of the system of care. Past network focus on clinical collaboration has been effective at improving clinical process and outcome, and the network is now prioritising work with managers and patients to support future redesign.

Economic evaluation of early administration of prednisolone and/or aciclovir for the treatment of Bell's palsy

OBJECTIVES

Bell's palsy (BP), which causes facial paralysis, affects 11-40 people per 100 000 per annum in the UK. Its cause is unknown but as many as 30% of patients have continuing facial disfigurement, psychological difficulties and occasionally facial pain. We present an randomised controlled trial (RCT)-based economic evaluation of the early administration of steroids (prednisolone) and/or antivirals (acyclovir) compared to placebo, for treatment of BP.

METHODS

The RCT was not powered to detect differences in the cost-effectiveness; therefore, we adopted a decision analytic model approach as a way of gaining precision in our cost-effectiveness comparisons [e.g. prednisolone only (PO) versus acyclovir only versus prednisolone and acyclovir versus placebo, prednisolone versus no prednisolone (NP) and acyclovir versus no acyclovir]. We assumed that trial interventions affect the probability of being cured/not cured but their consequences are independent of the initial therapy. We used the percentage of individuals with a complete recovery (based on House-Brackmann grade = 1) at 9 months and Quality Adjusted Life Years (e.g. derived on responses to the Health Utilities Index III) as measures of effectiveness. Other parameter estimates were obtained from trial data.

RESULTS

PO dominated-i.e. was less costly and more effective-all other therapy strategies in the four arms model [77% probability of cost-effective (CE)]. Moreover, Prednisolone dominated NP (77% probability of being CE at 30 000 UK pounds threshold) while no acyclovir dominated aciclovir (85% chance of CE), in the two arms models, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Treatment of BP with prednisolone is likely to be considered CE while treatment with acyclovir is highly unlikely to be considered CE. Further data on costs and utilities would be useful to confirm findings.

Organisational factors in relation to control of blood pressure: an observational study

BACKGROUND

Studies show that 60-75% of treated patients with hypertension in general practice, still do not reach the recommended blood pressure targets of <150/90 mmHg.

AIM

To investigate aspects of hypertension management in relation to sociodemographic variables, antihypertensive drug treatment, and organisational factors in primary care.

DESIGN OF STUDY

Observational study over 3 years.

SETTING

Eight general practices in Tayside, UK.

METHOD

Participants were 560 randomly selected patients aged 40-79 years receiving treatment for hypertension. The outcome measurement was blood pressure control, expressed in binary form based on the British Hypertension Society audit standard of <150/90 mmHg.

RESULTS

Of 536 eligible patients, 261 (49%) were defined as having inadequate blood pressure control at the end of the study period. No significant associations were discovered with sex, age, deprivation score and comorbidity. In those patients with inadequate control, 30% had no modifications to their drug treatment during the study period. Blood pressure control at the end of the study period was not associated with number of antihypertensive drugs taken or number of antihypertensive drug modifications. The mean number of clinician contacts was 11 (standard deviation = 8), and mean continuity in primary care was high, although this was not associated with improved blood pressure control. A higher proportion of hypertension-related consultations were associated with increased odds of having inadequate blood pressure control.

CONCLUSION

Achieving adequate blood pressure control continues to represent a substantial health problem in a significant proportion of the hypertensive population. Patient, physician and organisational elements play a role in ensuring effective delivery of hypertension care in the community.

Adoption and perception of electronic clinical communications in Scotland

OBJECTIVES

To determine the uptake of multiple eHealth facilities enabled by the NHS Scotland Electronic Clinical Communications Implementation Programme (ECCI) and to ascertain primary and secondary care users' perceptions.

DESIGN

Prospective monthly measurement of 37 indicators of roll-out and adoption. Retrospective questionnaire survey of users.

SETTING

Scottish health board regions. Quantitative implementation indicators were gathered in primary and secondary care across all 16 regions. Questionnaire data were obtained from recorded users in five representative regions (112 general practices, 92 secondary care units).

OUTCOME MEASURES

Change in uptake levels of ECCI facilities over a 15-month period. Users' perceptions of benefits, facilitators and barriers.

RESULTS

All health boards participated in the monthly data set collection. The response rate to the survey was 62% in primary care and 37% in secondary care. Across Scotland as a whole, the process of implementation was gradual. While there were marked gains in the availability of ECCI facilities over the observation period, rates of adoption lagged behind and varied across alternative facilities. Electronic results were widely used, with most laboratories offering them and around half of general practices receiving them. More modest rates of adoption were observed for e-discharge letters, e-referrals, e-clinic letters and clinical e-mail. E-booking was used very little. Among engaged users responding to the survey, electronic access to test results was the most frequently utilised facility and electronic outpatient booking the least. Perceived benefits of ECCI facilities included convenience, ease of use, time-saving and provision of an audit trail. Perceived barriers included the need to duplicate data entry where new systems were not universally implemented, technological difficulties, time, training and resources.

CONCLUSIONS

Significant progress was observed in the implementation of ECCI facilities across Scotland. Users reported that these improved communication and were beneficial, but system reliability, incompatibility and duplication of data hindered more widespread uptake. Data were collected at a transitional phase of the programme. Whilst, among users of ECCI facilities, perceptions of the programme and its potential benefits were generally positive, its full impact will not become evident until the new electronic tools are implemented nationally and have been more fully integrated into normal work routines.

Patient, carer and health service outcomes of nurse-led early discharge after breast cancer surgery: a randomised controlled trial

Patients with breast cancer who require axillary clearance traditionally remain in hospital until their wound drains are removed. Early discharge has been shown to improve clinical outcomes, but there has been little assessment of the psychosocial and financial impact of early discharge on patients, carers and the health service. This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of a nurse-led model of early discharge from hospital. Main outcome measures were quality of life and carer burden. Secondary outcomes included patient satisfaction, arm morbidity, impact on community nurses, health service costs, surgical cancellations and in-patient nursing dependency. A total of 108 patients undergoing axillary clearance with mastectomy or wide local excision for breast cancer were randomised to nurse-led early discharge or conventional stay. Nurse-led early discharge had no adverse effects on quality of life or patient satisfaction, had little effect on carer burden, improved communication between primary and secondary care, reduced cancellations and was safely implemented in a mixed rural/urban setting. In total, 40% of eligible patients agreed to take part. Nonparticipants were significantly older, more likely to live alone and had lower emotional well being before surgery. This study provides further evidence of the benefits of early discharge from hospital following axillary clearance for breast cancer. However, if given the choice, most patients prefer to stay in hospital until their wound drains are removed.

A retrospective, study of prescribing for erectile dysfunction in a UK population during 1997–2000: demand was neither excessive nor continuing to rise

PURPOSE

The UK NHS restricted the prescription of sildenafil to a range of clearly defined clinical situations. We describe the pattern of pharmaceutical management of erectile dysfunction (ED) during the period when the new drug was introduced and then regulated.

METHODS

We studied the population of males aged over 16 (n = 121,783) who were continuously registered with 60 practices in Tayside between 1 October 1997 and 30 June 2000 using record linkage and case-note verification. The patients' GPs allowed a research nurse to examine the records of these patients for demographic details, comorbidities and resource use.

RESULTS

Five hundred and fifty five patients received 2493 prescriptions for alprostadil or sildenafil. The addition of an oral agent to the available therapies in 1998 did lead to a more rapid rise in prescribed treatments but this reached a plateau 3.47 per 1000 adult males per quarter after 12-15 months. Fifty eight per cent of the men had a comorbidity associated with ED. More comorbidities were found in men aged 50-69 and those living in areas of greater deprivation. Depression was a more common comorbidity in younger patients and more men from affluent areas were prescribed sildenafil following prostatectomy.

CONCLUSIONS

In the Tayside region of the UK, the introduction of an effective, acceptable oral therapy for erectile dysfunction led to a rise in prescriptions issued for ED. This rise appeared to stop after 12-15 months, perhaps partly because of the governmental restrictions imposed.

A validated logistic regression model to identify coronary heart disease patients within primary care databases in the United kingdom

We established the optimal search strategy for identifying coronary heart disease (CHD) patients within the Electronic Patient Record (EPR) of 'paperless' family practices in the UK. Multiple logistic regression modelling (MLRM) and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves were used to develop the query. The selected search strategy was validated at 2 additional paperless family practices.