Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change

How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data.

Evaluating the effectiveness of different perceptual training methods in a difficult visual discrimination task with ultrasound images

Recent work has shown that perceptual training can be used to improve the performance of novices in real-world visual classification tasks with medical images, but it is unclear which perceptual training methods are the most effective, especially for difficult medical image discrimination tasks. We investigated several different perceptual training methods with medically naïve participants in a difficult radiology task: identifying the degree of hepatic steatosis (fatty infiltration of the liver) in liver ultrasound images. In Experiment 1a (N = 90), participants completed four sessions of standard perceptual training, and participants in Experiment 1b (N = 71) completed four sessions of comparison training. There was a significant post-training improvement for both types of training, although performance was better when the trained task aligned with the task participants were tested on. In both experiments, performance initially improves rapidly, with learning becoming more gradual after the first training session. In Experiment 2 (N = 200), we explored the hypothesis that performance could be improved by combining perceptual training with explicit annotated feedback presented in a stepwise fashion. Although participants improved in all training conditions, performance was similar regardless of whether participants were given annotations, or underwent training in a stepwise fashion, both, or neither. Overall, we found that perceptual training can rapidly improve performance on a difficult radiology task, albeit not to a comparable level as expert performance, and that similar levels of performance were achieved across the perceptual training paradigms we compared.

Explainable models for forecasting the emergence of political instability

Building on previous research on the use of macroeconomic factors for conflict prediction and using data on political instability provided by the Political Instability Task Force, this article proposes two minimal forecasting models of political instability optimised to have the greatest possible predictive power for one-year and two-year event horizons, while still making predictions that are fully explainable. Both models employ logistic regression and use just three predictors: polity code (a measure of government type), infant mortality, and years of stability (i.e., years since the last instability event). These models make predictions for 176 countries on a country-year basis and achieve AUPRC's of 0.108 and 0.115 for the one-year and two-year models respectively. They use public data with ongoing availability so are readily reproducible. They use Monte Carlo simulations to construct confidence intervals for their predictions and are validated by testing their predictions for a set of reference years separate from the set of reference years used to train them. This validation shows that the models are not overfitted but suggests that some of the previous models in the literature may have been. The models developed in this article are able to explain their predictions by showing, for a given prediction, which predictors were the most influential and by using counterfactuals to show how the predictions would have been altered had these predictors taken different values. These models are compared to models created by lasso regression and it is shown that they have at least as good predictive power but that their predictions can be more readily explained. Because policy makers are more likely to be influenced by models whose predictions can explained, the more interpretable a model is the more likely it is to influence policy.

Characterizing the time course of decision-making in change detection

We propose a novel modeling framework for characterizing the time course of change detection based on information held in visual short-term memory (VSTM). Specifically, we seek to answer whether change detection is better captured by a first-order integration model, in which information is pooled from each location, or a second-order integration model, in which each location is processed independently. We diagnose whether change detection across locations proceeds in serial or parallel and how processing is affected by the stopping rule (i.e., detecting any change vs. detecting all changes; Experiment 1) and how the efficiency of detection is affected by the number of changes in the display (Experiment 2). We find that although capacity is generally limited in both tasks, the architecture varies from parallel self-terminating in the OR task to serial self-terminating in the AND task. Our novel framework allows model comparisons across a large set of models ruling out several competing explanations of change detection. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2021 APA, all rights reserved).

Conformity to the descriptive norms of people with opposing political or social beliefs

The descriptive norm effect refers to findings that individuals will tend to prefer behaving certain ways when they know that other people behave similarly. An open question is whether individuals will still conform to other people's behaviour when they do not identify with these other people, such as a Democrat being biased towards following a popular behaviour amongst Republicans. Self-categorization theory makes the intuitive prediction that people will actively avoid conforming to the norms of groups with which they do not identify. We tested this by informing participants that a particular action was more popular amongst people they identified with and additionally informed some participants that this action was unpopular amongst people they did not identify with. Specifically, we presented descriptive norms of people who supported different political parties or had opposing stances on important social issues. Counter to self-categorization theory's prediction, we found that informing participants that an action was unpopular amongst people they did not identify with led participants' preferences to shift away from that action. These results suggest that a general desire to conform with others may outpower the common ingroup vs outgroup mentality.

Predictors of gambling and problem gambling in Victoria, Australia

In 2016, the gambling habits of a sample of 3361 adults in the state of Victoria, Australia, were surveyed. It was found that a number of factors that were highly correlated with self-reported gambling frequency and gambling problems were not significant predictors of gambling frequency and problem gambling. The major predictors of gambling frequency were the degree to which family members and peers were perceived to gamble, self-reported approval of gambling, the frequency of discussing gambling offline, and the participant's Canadian Problem Gambling Severity Index (PGSI) score. Age was a significant predictor of gambling frequency for certain types of gambling (e.g. buying lottery tickets). Approximately 91% of the explainable variance in the participant's PGSI score could be explained by just five predictors: Positive Urgency; Frequency of playing poker machines at pubs, hotels or sporting clubs; Participation in online discussions of betting on gaming tables at casinos; Frequency of gambling on the internet, and Overestimating the chances of winning. Based on these findings, suggestions are made as to how gambling-related harm can be reduced.

PeerWise: Evaluating the Effectiveness of a Web-Based Learning Aid in a Second-Year Psychology Subject

Testing can do more than just determine what a student knows; it can aid the learning process, a phenomenon known as the testing effect. There is a growing trend for students to create and share self-assessment questions in their subject, as advocated by the contributing-student pedagogy (CSP). For subjects with large enrolments, this process can be facilitated by educational technology. PeerWise is an example of such technology. It is free, web-based software that allows students to author, share, answer, and provide feedback on multiple-choice quizzes in a collaborative and constructivist fashion. While it is popular, it is unclear to what degree it facilitates student learning. To evaluate its effectiveness, we introduced PeerWise into a second-year psychology subject. We measured the extent to which it increased scores in the final exam. We found that PeerWise did significantly increase exam scores, so was a useful learning aid.

Perceptual training to improve hip fracture identification in conventional radiographs

Diagnosing certain fractures in conventional radiographs can be a difficult task, usually taking years to master. Typically, students are trained ad-hoc, in a primarily-rule based fashion. Our study investigated whether students can more rapidly learn to diagnose proximal neck of femur fractures via perceptual training, without having to learn an explicit set of rules. One hundred and thirty-nine students with no prior medical or radiology training were shown a sequence of plain film X-ray images of the right hip and for each image were asked to indicate whether a fracture was present. Students were told if they were correct and the location of any fracture, if present. No other feedback was given. The more able students achieved the same level of accuracy as board certified radiologists at identifying hip fractures in less than an hour of training. Surprisingly, perceptual learning was reduced when the training set was constructed to over-represent the types of images participants found more difficult to categorise. Conversely, repeating training images did not reduce post-training performance relative to showing an equivalent number of unique images. Perceptual training is an effective way of helping novices learn to identify hip fractures in X-ray images and should supplement the current education programme for students.

Attribute amnesia is greatly reduced with novel stimuli

Attribute amnesia is the counterintuitive phenomenon where observers are unable to report a salient aspect of a stimulus (e.g., its colour or its identity) immediately after the stimulus was presented, despite both attending to and processing the stimulus. Almost all previous attribute amnesia studies used highly familiar stimuli. Our study investigated whether attribute amnesia would also occur for unfamiliar stimuli. We conducted four experiments using stimuli that were highly familiar (colours or repeated animal images) or that were unfamiliar to the observers (unique animal images). Our results revealed that attribute amnesia was present for both sets of familiar stimuli, colour (p < .001) and repeated animals (p = .001); but was greatly attenuated, and possibly eliminated, when the stimuli were unique animals (p = .02). Our data shows that attribute amnesia is greatly reduced for novel stimuli.

Shared processing in multiple object tracking and visual working memory in the absence of response order and task order confounds

To understand how the visual system represents multiple moving objects and how those representations contribute to tracking, it is essential that we understand how the processes of attention and working memory interact. In the work described here we present an investigation of that interaction via a series of tracking and working memory dual-task experiments. Previously, it has been argued that tracking is resistant to disruption by a concurrent working memory task and that any apparent disruption is in fact due to observers making a response to the working memory task, rather than due to competition for shared resources. Contrary to this, in our experiments we find that when task order and response order confounds are avoided, all participants show a similar decrease in both tracking and working memory performance. However, if task and response order confounds are not adequately controlled for we find substantial individual differences, which could explain the previous conflicting reports on this topic. Our results provide clear evidence that tracking and working memory tasks share processing resources.

Global Cue Inconsistency Diminishes Learning of Cue Validity

In daily life, we make decisions that are associated with probabilistic outcomes (e.g., the chance of rain today). People search for and utilize information that validly predicts an outcome (i.e., we look for dark clouds to indicate the possibility of rain). In the current study (N = 107), we present a two-stage learning task that examines how participants learn and utilize predictive information within a probabilistic learning environment. In the first stage, participants select one of three cues that gives predictive information about the outcome of the second stage. Participants then use this information to predict the outcome in stage two, for which they receive feedback. Critically, only one of the three cues in stage one gives valid predictive information about the outcome in stage two. Participants must differentiate the valid from non-valid cues and select this cue on subsequent trials in order to inform their prediction of the outcome in stage two. The validity of this predictive information, however, is reinforced with varying levels of probabilistic feedback (i.e., 75, 85, 95, 100%). A second manipulation involved changing the consistency of the predictive information in stage one and the outcome in stage two. The results show that participants, with higher levels of probabilistic feedback, learned to utilize the valid cue. In inconsistent task conditions, however, participants were significantly less successful in utilizing higher validity cues. We interpret this result as implying that learning in probabilistic categorization is based on developing a representation of the task that allows for goal-directed action.

Comparing Breast Screening Protocols: Inserting Catch Trials Does Not Improve Sensitivity over Double Screening

Breast screening is an important tool for the early detection of breast cancers. However, tumours are typically present in less than 1% of mammograms. This low prevalence could cause radiologists to detect fewer tumours than they otherwise would, an issue known as the prevalence effect. The aim of our study was to investigate a novel breast screening protocol, designed to decrease the number of tumours missed by radiologists, without increasing their workload. We ran two laboratory-based experiments to assess the degree to which the novel protocol, called the catch trial (CT) protocol, resulted in greater sensitivity (d’) than the double screener protocol (DS), currently utilised in Australia. In our first experiment we found evidence that the CT protocol resulted in a criterion shift relative to the DS protocol but the evidence that sensitivity was greater in the CT protocol relative to the DS protocol was less clear. A second experiment, using more realistic stimuli that were more representative of actual tumours, also failed to find convincing evidence that sensitivity was greater in the CT protocol than in the DS protocol. This experiment instead found that both the hit rate and the false alarm rate increased in the CT protocol relative to the DS protocol. So while there was again evidence that the CT protocol induced a criterion shift, the sensitivity appeared to be approximately the same in both protocols. Our results suggest the CT protocol is unlikely to result in an improvement in sensitivity over the DS protocol, so we cannot recommend that it be trialled in a clinical setting.

Testing the Coplanar Ratio Hypothesis of Lightness Perception

What determines an object's lightness remains unclear, but it is generally thought that the ratios of its luminance to the luminance of other objects in a scene play a crucial role because these ratios allow the relative reflectance of each object to be estimated, providing all the objects are under the same illumination. Because objects that lie in the same plane are typically illuminated equally, it has been suggested that it is the luminance ratios between coplanar objects that primarily determine lightness (Gilchrist, 1977 Science195 185–187; Gilchrist et al, 1999 Psychological Review106 795–834). An alternative hypothesis is that perceived illumination differences can affect lightness directly. As the studies that provided evidence for the coplanar ratio hypothesis always varied the illumination and the coplanar relationships simultaneously, it is unclear which hypothesis is correct. I measured the influence of each factor separately and found that the perceived illumination differences have a greater effect on lightness.

Bilateral Advantages in Subitizing With Visual Masking

Performance on a range of visual-processing tasks has been shown to improve when information is split bilaterally across the left and right visual hemifields rather than being restricted to a single visual hemifield. However, a recent study by Delvenne et al. found no such bilateral advantage for subitizing, which is our ability to rapidly and accurately enumerate small quantities of objects. This finding is particularly surprising, as it contradicts the prediction of FINgers of INSTantiation theory that subitizing should benefit from bilateral presentation. Our study investigated the issue by determining if there are any circumstances where a bilateral advantage for subitization occurs. Contrary to Delvenne et al., we found that subitizing could show bilateral advantages, but only when the display was backward-masked. We discuss these findings in relation to how the rate of encoding and the time available for this encoding may affect bilateral advantages in subitizing. A general model is proposed under which bilateral advantages could be explained.

The double-anchoring theory of lightness perception: a comment on Bressan (2006)

Recently, a double-anchoring theory (DAT) of lightness perception was proposed (P. Bressan, 2006), which offers explanations for all the data explained by the original anchoring theory (A. Gilchrist et al., 1999), as well as a number of additional lightness phenomena. Consequently, DAT can account for an unprecedented range of empirical results, potentially explaining everything from the basic simultaneous contrast display to subtle variations of the Gelb effect. In this comment, the authors raised 4 concerns that demonstrate serious theoretical and empirical difficulties for DAT.

The Identity-Location Binding Problem

The binding problem is fundamental to visual perception. It is the problem of associating an object's visual properties with itself and not with some other object. The problem is made particular difficult because different properties of an object, such as its color, shape, size, and motion, are often processed independently, sometimes in different cortical areas. The results of these separate analyses have to be combined before the object can be seen as a single coherent entity as opposed to a collection of unconnected features. Visual bindings are typically initiated and updated in a serial fashion, one object at a time. Here, we show that one type of binding, location-identity bindings, can be updated in parallel. We do this by using two complementary techniques, the simultaneous-sequential paradigm and systems factorial technology. These techniques make different assumptions and rely on different behavioral measures, yet both came to the same conclusion.

Detecting unidentified changes

Does becoming aware of a change to a purely visual stimulus necessarily cause the observer to be able to identify or localise the change or can change detection occur in the absence of identification or localisation? Several theories of visual awareness stress that we are aware of more than just the few objects to which we attend. In particular, it is clear that to some extent we are also aware of the global properties of the scene, such as the mean luminance or the distribution of spatial frequencies. It follows that we may be able to detect a change to a visual scene by detecting a change to one or more of these global properties. However, detecting a change to global property may not supply us with enough information to accurately identify or localise which object in the scene has been changed. Thus, it may be possible to reliably detect the occurrence of changes without being able to identify or localise what has changed. Previous attempts to show that this can occur with natural images have produced mixed results. Here we use a novel analysis technique to provide additional evidence that changes can be detected in natural images without also being identified or localised. It is likely that this occurs by the observers monitoring the global properties of the scene.

Transfer of learning between hemifields in multiple object tracking: memory reduces constraints of attention

Many tasks involve tracking multiple moving objects, or stimuli. Some require that individuals adapt to changing or unfamiliar conditions to be able to track well. This study explores processes involved in such adaptation through an investigation of the interaction of attention and memory during tracking. Previous research has shown that during tracking, attention operates independently to some degree in the left and right visual hemifields, due to putative anatomical constraints. It has been suggested that the degree of independence is related to the relative dominance of processes of attention versus processes of memory. Here we show that when individuals are trained to track a unique pattern of movement in one hemifield, that learning can be transferred to the opposite hemifield, without any evidence of hemifield independence. However, learning is not influenced by an explicit strategy of memorisation of brief periods of recognisable movement. The findings lend support to a role for implicit memory in overcoming putative anatomical constraints on the dynamic, distributed spatial allocation of attention involved in tracking multiple objects.

Visually Tracking and Localizing Expanding and Contracting Objects

The maintenance of attention on moving objects is required for cognition to reliably engage with the visual world. Theories of object tracking need to explain on which patterns of visual stimulation one can easily maintain attention and on which patterns one cannot. A previous study has shown that it is easier to track rigid objects than objects that expand and contract along their direction of motion, in a manner that resembles a substance pouring from one location to another (vanMarle and Scholl 2003 Psychological Science14 498–504). Here we investigate six possible explanations for this finding and find evidence supporting two of them. Our results show that, first, objects that expand and contract tend to overlap and crowd each other more, and this increases tracking difficulty. Second, expansion and contraction make it harder to localize objects, even when there is only a single target to attend to, and this may also increase tracking difficulty. Currently, there is no theory of object tracking that can account for the second finding.

Motion information is sometimes used as an aid to the visual tracking of objects

In everyday life, observers often need to visually track moving objects. Currently, there is a debate as to whether observers utilize motion information in doing this or whether they rely purely on positional information (e.g., frame-by-frame locations). In our experiments, we had observers keep track of a subset of moving objects. In one condition, the objects moved in straight lines and their future positions were thus predictable. In a second condition, the objects changed directions randomly. Across three experiments, tracking performance was better in the predictable condition, suggesting that observers can use motion to help them track objects, at least when tracking just two. When tracking four objects, performance was not different between the two conditions. We discuss these findings in relation to several theories of object tracking.

The effect of visual distinctiveness on multiple object tracking performance

Observers often need to attentively track moving objects. In everyday life, such objects are often visually distinctive. Previous studies have shown that tracking accuracy is increased when the targets contain a visual feature (e.g., a color) not possessed by the distractors. Conversely, a gain in tracking accuracy was not observed when the targets differed from the distractors by only a conjunction of features (Makovski and Jiang, 2009a). In this study we confirm that some conjunction targets have relatively little effect on tracking accuracy, but show that other conjunction targets can significantly aid tracking. For example, tracking accuracy is relatively high when the targets are small red squares and half the distractors are large red squares while the remaining distractors are small green squares. This seems to occur because the targets have a set of features (small and red) not shared by any one distractor. Attending to these features directs attention more to the targets than the distractors, thereby making the targets easier to track. Existing theories of attentive tracking cannot explain these results.

Remapping attention in multiple object tracking

Which coordinate system do we use to track moving objects? In a previous study using smooth pursuit eye movements, we argued that targets are tracked in both retinal (retinotopic) and scene-centered (allocentric) coordinates (Howe, Pinto, & Horowitz, 2010). However, multiple object tracking typically also elicits saccadic eye movements, which may change how object locations are represented. Observers fixated a cross while tracking three targets out of six identical disks confined to move within an imaginary square. The fixation cross alternated between two locations, requiring observers to make repeated saccades. By moving (or not moving) the imaginary square in sync with the fixation cross, we could disrupt either (or both) coordinate systems. Surprisingly, tracking performance was much worse when the objects moved with the fixation cross, although this manipulation preserved the retinal image across saccades, thereby avoiding the visual disruptions normally associated with saccades. Instead, tracking performance was best when the allocentric coordinate system was preserved, suggesting that targets locations are maintained in that coordinate system across saccades. This is consistent with a theoretical framework in which the positions of a small set of attentional pointers are predictively updated in advance of a saccade.

The coordinate systems used in visual tracking

Tracking moving objects is a fundamental attentional operation. Here we ask which coordinate system is used to track objects: retinal (retinotopic), scene-centered (allocentric), or both? Observers tracked three of six disks that were confined to move within an imaginary square. By moving either the imaginary square (and thus the disks contained within), the fixation cross, or both, we could dramatically increase the disks' speeds in one coordinate system while leaving them unchanged in the other, so as to impair tracking in only one coordinate system at a time. Hindering tracking in either coordinate system reduced tracking ability by an equal amount, suggesting that observers are compelled to use both coordinate systems and cannot choose to track only in the unimpaired coordinate system.

The more often you see an object, the easier it becomes to track it

Is it easier to track objects that you have seen repeatedly? We compared repeated blocks, where identities were the same from trial to trial, to unrepeated blocks, where identities varied. People were better in tracking objects that they saw repeatedly. We tested four hypotheses to explain this repetition benefit. First, perhaps the repeated condition benefits from consistent mapping of identities to target and distractor roles. However, the repetition benefit persisted even when both the repeated and the unrepeated conditions used consistent mapping. Second, repetition might improve the ability to recover targets that have been lost, or swapped with distractors. However, we observed a larger repetition benefit for color-color conjunctions, which do not benefit from such error recovery processes, than for unique features, which do. Furthermore, a repetition benefit was observed even in the absence of distractors. Third, perhaps repetition frees up resources by reducing memory load. However, increasing memory load by masking identities during the motion phase reduced the repetition benefit. The fourth hypothesis is that repetition facilitates identity tracking, which in turn improves location tracking. This hypothesis is consistent with all our results. Thus, our data suggest that identity and location tracking share a common resource.

Distinguishing between parallel and serial accounts of multiple object tracking

Humans can track multiple moving objects. Is this accomplished by attending to all the objects at the same time or do we attend to each object in turn? We addressed this question using a novel application of the classic simultaneous-sequential paradigm. We considered a display in which objects moved for only part of the time. In one condition, the objects moved sequentially, whereas in the other condition they all moved and paused simultaneously. A parallel model would predict that the targets are tracked independently, so the tracking of one target should not be influenced by the movement of another target. Thus, one would expect equal performance in the two conditions. Conversely, a simple serial account of object tracking would predict that an observer's accuracy should be greater in the sequential condition because in that condition, at any one time, fewer targets are moving and thus need to be attended. In fact, in our experiments we observed performance in the simultaneous condition to be equal to or greater than the performance in the sequential condition. This occurred regardless of the number of targets or how the targets were positioned in the visual field. These results are more directly in line with a parallel account of multiple object tracking.

Scotopic foveal afterimages

If, after being in the dark for many minutes, one views an extended surface under dim (scotopic) illumination, one fails to see any hint of the dark spot at the center of gaze that might be expected from the absence of rods in the fovea. Here we report that, if the surface is suddenly completely darkened, one sees for a few seconds a relatively bright spot, about 2 deg in size, at the point of fixation. If the surface is now restored to its original brightness, a dark spot of similar size appears where one fixates, that again lasts for several seconds. All this can be observed with no elaborate apparatus.

The use of the cancellation technique to quantify the Hermann grid illusion

When observers view a grid of mid-gray lines superimposed on a black background, they report seeing illusory dark gray smudges at the grid intersections, an effect known as the Hermann grid illusion. The strength of the illusion is often measured using the cancellation technique: A white disk is placed over one of these intersections and the luminance of the disk is reduced until the disk disappears. Its luminance at this point, i.e., the disk's detection threshold, is taken to be a measure of the strength of the illusion. Our experiments showed that some distortions of the Hermann grid, which were sufficient to completely disrupt the illusion, did not reduce the disk's detection threshold. This showed that the cancellation technique is not a valid method for measuring the strength of the Hermann grid illusion. Those studies that attempted to use this technique inadvertently studied a different effect known as the blanking phenomenon. We conclude by presenting an explanation for the latter effect.

Explaining the footsteps, belly dancer, Wenceslas, and kickback illusions

The footsteps illusion (FI) demonstrates that an object's background can have a profound effect on the object's perceived speed. This illusion consists of a yellow bar and a blue bar that move over a black-and-white, striped background. Although the bars move at a constant rate, they appear to repeatedly accelerate and decelerate in antiphase with each other. Previously, this illusion has been explained in terms of the variations in contrast at the leading and trailing edges of the bars that occur as the bars traverse the striped background. Here, we show that this explanation is inadequate and instead propose that for each bar, the bar's leading edge, trailing edge, lateral edges, and the surrounding background edges all contribute to the bar's perceived speed and that the degree to which each edge contributes to the motion percept is determined by that edge's contrast. We show that this theory can explain all the data on the FI as well as the belly dancer and Wenceslas illusions. We conclude by presenting a new illusion, the kickback illusion, which, although geometrically similar to the FI, is mediated by a different mechanism, namely, reverse phi motion.

V1 partially solves the stereo aperture problem

If a bar stimulus extends beyond a cell's receptive field, then alterations in binocular disparity parallel to the bar's orientation leave the portion of the stimulus within the cell's receptive field unchanged. This makes it hard for the cell to respond correctly to the bar's disparity. Likening the cell's receptive field to an aperture through which the cell views the world, this issue has been called the "aperture problem" and is a specific form of the more general stereo correspondence problem. We found no cells in macaque primary visual cortex (V1) that, when faced with this situation, were sensitive to the disparity of the bar. However, we did find a number of cells that showed sensitivity to parallel disparity shifts, but these cells responded only to the ends of the long bar. The ability to respond selectively to such tracking features could be the first step towards solving the stereo aperture problem. The second step would require either that the disparity information that in V1 is associated only with the ends of the stimulus be associated with the rest of the stimulus or that subsequent stages of visual processing respond preferentially to the end-selective cells. As this second step does not appear to occur in V1, we conclude that V1 only partially solves the stereo aperture problem.

White's effect: removing the junctions but preserving the strength of the illusion

White's effect (also known as the Munker White effect) is a lightness illusion in which, contrary to expectations based on simultaneous contrast and Wallach's rule, a gray rectangle predominantly surrounded by white appears lighter than an identical rectangle that is mainly surrounded by black. The illusion is often explained in terms of T-junctions that are formed by the three-way intersection of the gray rectangle, a black stripe, and a white stripe. I present a circular variant of White's effect in which all the junctions have been removed without significantly affecting the strength of the illusion, suggesting that junctions are not an important consideration in all versions of White's effect.

Measuring the depth induced by an opposite-luminance (but not anticorrelated) stereogram

The same-sign hypothesis suggests that only those edges in the two retinal images whose luminance gradients have the same sign, known as same-sign edges, can be stereoscopically fused to generate a perception of depth. If true, one would expect that the magnitude of the depth induced by an opposite-luminance stereogram (eg one where the figure in one stereo half-image is black and the figure in the other is white) should be determined by the disparity of the same-sign edges. Despite the considerable work on the same-sign hypothesis this prediction has yet to be verified. Here we confirm this prediction for a particular opposite-luminance stereogram and discuss possible reasons why it is not true for opposite-luminance stereograms that are presented briefly or where each stereo half-image contains many elements.

A laminar cortical model of stereopsis and three-dimensional surface perception

A laminar cortical model of stereopsis and later stages of 3D surface perception is developed and simulated. The model describes how initial stages of monocular and binocular oriented filtering interact with later stages of 3D boundary formation and surface filling-in in the lateral geniculate nucleus and cortical areas V1, V2, and V4. In particular, it details how interactions between layers 4, 3B, and 2/3A in V1 and V2 contribute to stereopsis, and clarifies how binocular and monocular information combine to form 3D boundary and surface representations. Along the way, the model modifies and significantly extends the disparity energy model. Neural explanations are given for psychophysical data concerning: contrast variations of dichoptic masking and the correspondence problem, the effect of interocular contrast differences on stereoacuity, Panum's limiting case, the Venetian blind illusion, stereopsis with polarity-reversed stereograms, da Vinci stereopsis, and various lightness illusions. By relating physiology to psychophysics, the model provides new functional insights and predictions about laminar cortical architecture.