Screening for lung cancer: 2023 guideline update from the American Cancer Society

Lung cancer is the leading cause of mortality and person-years of life lost from cancer among US men and women. Early detection has been shown to be associated with reduced lung cancer mortality. Our objective was to update the American Cancer Society (ACS) 2013 lung cancer screening (LCS) guideline for adults at high risk for lung cancer. The guideline is intended to provide guidance for screening to health care providers and their patients who are at high risk for lung cancer due to a history of smoking. The ACS Guideline Development Group (GDG) utilized a systematic review of the LCS literature commissioned for the US Preventive Services Task Force 2021 LCS recommendation update; a second systematic review of lung cancer risk associated with years since quitting smoking (YSQ); literature published since 2021; two Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network-validated lung cancer models to assess the benefits and harms of screening; an epidemiologic and modeling analysis examining the effect of YSQ and aging on lung cancer risk; and an updated analysis of benefit-to-radiation-risk ratios from LCS and follow-up examinations. The GDG also examined disease burden data from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program. Formulation of recommendations was based on the quality of the evidence and judgment (incorporating values and preferences) about the balance of benefits and harms. The GDG judged that the overall evidence was moderate and sufficient to support a strong recommendation for screening individuals who meet the eligibility criteria. LCS in men and women aged 50-80 years is associated with a reduction in lung cancer deaths across a range of study designs, and inferential evidence supports LCS for men and women older than 80 years who are in good health. The ACS recommends annual LCS with low-dose computed tomography for asymptomatic individuals aged 50-80 years who currently smoke or formerly smoked and have a ≥20 pack-year smoking history (strong recommendation, moderate quality of evidence). Before the decision is made to initiate LCS, individuals should engage in a shared decision-making discussion with a qualified health professional. For individuals who formerly smoked, the number of YSQ is not an eligibility criterion to begin or to stop screening. Individuals who currently smoke should receive counseling to quit and be connected to cessation resources. Individuals with comorbid conditions that substantially limit life expectancy should not be screened. These recommendations should be considered by health care providers and adults at high risk for lung cancer in discussions about LCS. If fully implemented, these recommendations have a high likelihood of significantly reducing death and suffering from lung cancer in the United States.

Racial inequities in the quality of surgical care among Medicare beneficiaries with localized prostate cancer

BACKGROUND

US Black men are twice as likely to die from prostate cancer as men of other races. Lower quality care may contribute to this higher death rate.

METHODS

Sociodemographic and clinical data were obtained for men in Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-Medicare diagnosed with clinically localized prostate cancer (cT1-4N0/xM0/x) and managed primarily by radical prostatectomy (2005-2015). Surgical volume was determined for facility and surgeon. Relationships between race, surgeon and/or facility volume, and characteristics of treating facility with survival (all-cause and cancer-specific) were assessed using multivariable Cox regression and competing risk analysis.

RESULTS

Black men represented 6.7% (n = 2123) of 31,478 cohort. They were younger at diagnosis, had longer time from diagnosis to surgery, lower socioeconomic status, higher prostate-specific antigen (PSA), and higher comorbid status compared with men of other races (p < .001). They were less likely to receive care from a surgeon or facility in the top volume percentile (p < .001); less likely to receive surgical care at a National Cancer Institute-designated cancer center and more likely seen at a minority-serving hospital; and less likely to travel ≥50 miles for surgical care. On multivariable analysis stratified by surgical volume, Black men receiving care from a surgeon or facility with lower volumes demonstrated increased risk of prostate cancer mortality (hazard ratio, 1.61; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-2.69) adjusting for age, clinical stage, PSA, and comorbidity index.

CONCLUSIONS

Black Medicare beneficiaries with prostate cancer more commonly receive care from surgeons and facilities with lower volumes, likely affecting surgical quality and outcomes. Access to high-quality prostate cancer care may reduce racial inequities in disease outcomes, even among insured men.

PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY

Black men are twice as likely to die of prostate cancer than other US men. Lower quality care may contribute to higher rates of prostate cancer death. We used surgical volume to evaluate the relationship between race and quality of care. Black Medicare beneficiaries with prostate cancer more commonly received care from surgeons and facilities with lower volumes, correlating with a higher risk of prostate cancer death and indicating scarce resources for care. Access to high-quality prostate cancer care eases disparities in disease outcomes. Patient-centered interventions that increase access to high-quality care for Black men with prostate cancer are needed.

What do the screening trials really tell us and where do we go from here?

Publication of apparently conflicting results from 2 large trials of prostate cancer screening has intensified the debate about prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing and has led to a recommendation against screening from the US Preventive Services Task Force. This article reviews the trials and discusses the limitations of their empirical results in informing public health policy. In particular, the authors explain why harm-benefit trade-offs based on empirical results may not accurately reflect the trade-offs expected under long-term population screening. This information should be useful to clinicians in understanding the implications of these studies regarding the value of PSA screening.

Time to testosterone (T) and PSA rises during first “off treatment” interval (1OFF-2ON) of intermittent androgen deprivation (IAD) as prognostic for time to castration resistance (CRPC) and prostate cancer mortality (PCM) in men with biochemical relapse (BR)

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Background: A recent phase III trial of intermittent vs. continuous AD supports IAD as standard of care for men treated with AD for BR. To identify potential prognostic factors during 1OFF, times to T and PSA rises from our prospective trial of IAD in men with BR were analyzed in relation to times to CRPC and PCM. Methods: 72 men with BR after definitive local therapy were treated with IAD, each cycle consisting of 9 months of leuprolide and flutamide followed by a variable “off treatment” interval. T and PSA were followed monthly; AD was resumed when PSA reached a pre-specified value. Cycles repeated until CRPC, defined as ≥2 PSA rises with T≤50 ng/dL. Markers of interest from 1OFF-2ON were time to first T>50, time from first T>50 to first PSA rise ≥0.1 ng/mL, time to first PSA rise ≥0.1, and PSA doubling time (PSAdt), calculated using the first 3 PSA measurements starting from first PSA ≥0.1. The associations of these markers with CRPC and PCM were evaluated using Cox proportional hazards models (or logistic regression if the Cox proportional hazards assumption was not met), controlling for age at study entry and Gleason score categorized to ≤7 or >7. Results: A 30-day increase in time to first T>50 was significantly associated with a 75% increase in the risk of PCM. A 30-day increase in time to PSA rise from 1OFF or after T>50 was significantly associated with a 23% or 72% reduction in the risk of CRPC, respectively. While neither of the associations of PSAdt with CRPC or PCM were significant, they were of moderate size: PSAdt displayed a moderate reduction in risk of CRPC by 35% and PCM by 38%. Conclusions: During the first “off treatment” interval of IAD, the time to first T>50 is prognostic for PCM. Time to first PSA rise after 1OFF and after first T>50 are both prognostic for CRPC. [Table: see text]

Relationship of time to testosterone (T) and PSA rises during the first “off treatment” interval (1OFF) of intermittent androgen deprivation (IAD) with time to castration resistance (CRPC) and prostate cancer mortality (PCM) in men with biochemical relapse (BR)

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Background: A recent phase III trial of intermittent vs. continuous AD supports IAD as standard of care for men treated with AD for BR. To identify potential factors during 1OFF prognostic for time to CRPC or PCM, relationships with times to T and PSA rises from our prospective trial of IAD in men with BR were analyzed.

Methods: 72 patients were treated with IAD, each cycle consisting of 9 months of leuprolide and flutamide followed by a variable “off treatment” interval. T and PSA were followed monthly; AD was resumed when PSA reached a pre-specified value. Cycles repeated until CRPC, defined as ≥2 PSA rises with T<50 ng/dL. We evaluated patients who completed 1OFF and reached T>50 with a Cox proportional hazards model, controlling for age at study entry, to quantify association of time to first T>50 with time from this point to CRPC or PCM. Similarly we quantified association of PSA rise during 1OFF and after first T>50 with these endpoints.

Results: A longer time to PSA rise during 1OFF or after T>50 was associated with longer time to CRPC, while longer time to first T>50 was marginally associated with shorter time to PCM. Specifically, a 30-day increase in time to PSA rise during 1OFF or after T>50 was associated with a 21% or 27% reduction in the risk of CRPC, while a 30-day increase in time to first T>50 was associated with a 39% increase in the risk of PCM.

Conclusions: That longer time to PSA rise during 1OFF was associated with longer time to CRPC is not surprising, but the association between longer time to first T>50 and time to PCM has not been reported. To validate these findings, an extended analysis is underway and will be presented.

[Table: see text]

Duration of first off-treatment interval is prognostic for time to castration resistance and death in men with biochemical relapse of prostate cancer treated on a prospective trial of intermittent androgen deprivation

PURPOSE

This was an exploratory analysis of a trial of intermittent androgen deprivation (IAD) in men with biochemical relapse (BR) to establish first cycle characteristics prognostic for progression to castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) and death.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Men with BR of prostate cancer after radical prostatectomy (RP) or radiation (RT) were treated with androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) comprised of leuprolide and flutamide. After 9 months on treatment, ADT was stopped, and monthly prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels were observed during the off-treatment interval. When the PSA reached a threshold value (1 ng/mL for RP, 4 ng/mL for RT), ADT was resumed in a new cycle. Patients were treated intermittently in this manner until CRPC, which was defined as > or = two consecutive increasing PSA values while on ADT with castrate testosterone levels.

RESULTS

Seventy-two of 100 patients enrolled onto the study met criteria for this analysis. The duration of the first off-treatment interval (< or = v > 40 weeks) was associated with shorter time to CRPC (hazard ratio = 2.9; 95% CI, 1.1 to 7.7; P = .03) and death (hazard ratio = 3.8; 95% CI, 1.1 to 13.6; P = .04) after adjusting for age, stage, grade, and PSA at diagnosis.

CONCLUSION

In patients who completed the first cycle of IAD, a duration of the first off-treatment interval of < or = 40 weeks defines a subset of patients at higher risk of CRPC and death. Conversely, patients with an off-treatment interval of more than 40 weeks have a significantly better long-term prognosis.

LONG-TERM EFFECTS OF FINASTERIDE ON PROSTATE SPECIFIC ANTIGEN LEVELS: RESULTS FROM THE PROSTATE CANCER PREVENTION TRIAL

PURPOSE

Studies have shown that finasteride decreases prostate specific antigen (PSA) by approximately 50% during the first 12 months of use. We estimated the long-term effects of finasteride on PSA in men with and without a prostate cancer diagnosis at the end of the study.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We analyzed serial PSA in participants in the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial who had an end of study biopsy (928 with cancer and 8,620 with negative biopsy) or an interim diagnosis of prostate cancer (671). Linear mixed effects regression models were fit to longitudinal PSA values beginning 1 year after randomization.

RESULTS

In subjects with no cancer in the end of study biopsy PSA in the finasteride arm showed a median annual decrease of 2% [corrected] after year 1, while PSA in the control arm showed an annual increase of 3% (p <0.001). In end of study cases PSA increased annually by 6% (placebo) and 7% (finasteride). In those with interim diagnoses PSA increased by 11% (placebo) and 15% (finasteride) each year prior to diagnosis. Cases with high grade disease (Gleason 7 and above) had greater PSA increases than cases with low grade disease (p <0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In men who have been receiving finasteride for more than 1 year time varying adjustment factors may be needed to determine whether PSA is in the normal range. In the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial cohort the adjustment factor required to preserve median PSA increased from 2 at 24 months to 2.5 at 7 years after the initiation of finasteride.

Lifetime implications and cost-effectiveness of using finasteride to prevent prostate cancer

PURPOSE

We estimate the lifetime implications of daily treatment with finasteride following the results of the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial (PCPT). In this trial, prostate cancer prevalence was reduced by 25%; however, an increase in the number of high-grade tumors among the treatment group necessitates the long-term projection of the likely benefits and costs.

METHODS

We use a Markov decision analysis model with data from the trial, the SEER program, and published literature. The model measures the cost per life-year and cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained for a cohort of men age 55 years who initiate preventive treatment with finasteride.

RESULTS

Finasteride is associated with a gain of 6 life-years per 1000 men treated at an incremental cost of 1660000 dollars per life-year gained. The quality-adjusted analysis results in 46 QALYs gained per 1000 men treated at an incremental cost of 200000 dollars per QALY gained, due primarily to the favorable effects of finasteride on benign prostatic hyperplasia. Under the assumption that the increase in high-grade tumors observed among finasteride treated men is a pathologic artifact, the incremental costs are 290000 dollars per life-year gained and 130000 dollars per QALY gained.

CONCLUSIONS

The cost burden associated with finasteride is substantial, while its survival benefit is small and only realized many years after initiating treatment. To achieve an incremental cost below 100000 dollars per QALY gained, the price of finasteride must be reduced by 50% from its current average wholesale price and finasteride must be shown to prevent high-grade as well as low-grade disease.

Chemotherapy use, outcomes, and costs for older persons with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer: evidence from surveillance, epidemiology and end results-Medicare

PURPOSE

There is limited published documentation regarding US community patterns of care for older patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER)-Medicare database, we examined community treatment patterns for advanced NSCLC, focusing on chemotherapy.

METHODS

Patients with locally advanced or metastatic (TNM system stages IIIb and IV) NSCLC diagnosed between January 1, 1994, and December 31, 1999, were stratified based on chemotherapy agents received during the first 3 months following diagnosis. Cox proportional hazards models were used to compare survival, controlling for age, sex, race, noncancer comorbidity, stage at diagnosis, SEER region, and receipt of cancer-related surgery or radiation therapy in the first 3 months following diagnosis. Lifetime medical costs were calculated for each group.

RESULTS

14,875 patients met inclusion criteria: 7,411 (49.8%) stage III and 7,464 (50.2%) stage IV at diagnosis. Thirty-one percent received chemotherapy, 8% received surgery, and 53% received radiation therapy either as initial or adjuvant treatment. Persons > or = 75 years of age, females, African Americans, and those with more than one comorbidity were significantly less likely to receive chemotherapy (P < .01). Survival was inferior for those who did not receive a platinum-containing agent (P < .01). Lifetime costs were highest for those receiving platinum + taxane combinations, exceeding other regimens by more than $10,000 USD per patient.

CONCLUSION

Chemotherapy prolongs survival in community settings, but is underutilized for persons with advanced NSCLC. Reasons for lower use in minorities and variation across regions deserve further study.

Race independently predicts prostate specific antigen testing frequency following a prostate carcinoma diagnosis

BACKGROUND

The goals of the current study were to describe patterns of prostate specific antigen (PSA) surveillance for prostate carcinoma progression in a community-based cohort of patients and to identify independent clinical and sociodemographic factors that predict the frequency of surveillance.

METHODS

Patients diagnosed with localized prostate carcinoma from October 1, 1991 to December 31, 1992 in New Haven and Hartford, Connecticut, were identified. Data were collected through standardized outpatient medical record review. Multivariate statistical methods were used to determine the factors that independently predicted the frequency of surveillance.

RESULTS

Six hundred fifty-eight men with localized prostate carcinoma were included in the cohort. Forty-five percent of all patients were tested at least once annually, and 69% were tested at least once every 2 years. Multivariate models indicated that African American men were half as likely as Caucasian men to receive annual testing (odds ratio [OR], 0.49; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.24-0.97). Men diagnosed at age 70 years or older were 38% less likely to have annual testing than men diagnosed between the ages of 65 and 69 (OR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.41-0.94). A higher Gleason score and PSA at presentation also were associated independently with higher rates of annual PSA surveillance.

CONCLUSIONS

Postdiagnosis PSA surveillance is common, although not universal. African American men were at significantly greater risk for receiving less frequent testing compared with Caucasian men. This disparity in access to care may explain, in part, previously observed racial differences in survival in prostate carcinoma. Further research is needed to identify the reasons for the racial disparity in PSA surveillance and to design interventions to lessen these differences.

Obtaining long-term disease specific costs of care: application to Medicare enrollees diagnosed with colorectal cancer

OBJECTIVES

This study develops estimates of long-term, cancer-related treatment cost using a modeling approach and data from the SEER-Medicare linked database. The method is demonstrated for colorectal cancer.

METHODS

Data on Medicare payments were obtained for colorectal cancer patients for the years 1990 to 1994 from the SEER-Medicare linked database. Claims payment data for control subjects were obtained for Medicare enrollees without cancer residing in the same areas as patients. Estimates of long-term cost (< or = 25 years following the date of diagnosis) were obtained by combining treatment/phase-specific cost estimates with estimates of long-term survival from SEER. Treatment phases were defined as initial care, terminal care, and continuing care. Cancer-related estimates for each phase were obtained by subtracting costs for control subjects from the observed costs for cancer patients, matching on age group, gender, and registry area. Estimates of long-term cost < or = 11 years obtained by this method were compared with 11-year estimates obtained by application of the Kaplan-Meier sample average (KMSA) method.

RESULTS

The mean initial-phase cancer-related cost was approximately $18,000 but was higher among patients with more advanced cancer. The mean continuing-phase cancer-related cost was $1,500 per year and declined with increasing age, but was higher on an annual basis among persons with later stages of cancer and shorter survival time. The mean terminal-phase cancer-related cost was $15,000 and declined with both age at death and more advanced stage at diagnosis. After the phase-specific estimates were combined, the average long-term cancer-related cost was $33,700 ($31,300 at 3% discount rate) for colon cancer compared with $36,500 ($33,800 at 3% discount rate) for cancer of the rectum. This represented about half of the total long-term cost for Medicare enrollees diagnosed with this disease. Long-term cost was highest for Stage III cancer and lowest for in situ cancer. Eleven-year cancer-related costs estimated by the KMSA method were similar to estimates using the phase-based approach.

CONCLUSIONS

This paper demonstrates that valid estimates of cancer-related long-term cost can be obtained from administrative claims data linked to incidence cancer registry data.

On the use of survival analysis techniques to estimate medical care costs

Measurement of treatment costs is important in the evaluation of medical interventions. Accurate cost estimation is problematic, when cost records are incomplete. Methods from the survival analysis literature have been proposed for estimating costs using available data. In this article, we clarify assumptions necessary for validity of these techniques. We demonstrate how assumptions needed for valid survival analysis may be violated when these methods are applied to cost estimation. Our observations are confirmed through simulations and empirical data analysis. We conclude that survival analysis approaches are not generally appropriate for the analysis of medical costs and review several valid alternatives.

Assessing uncertainty in microsimulation modelling with application to cancer screening interventions

Microsimulation is fast becoming the approach of choice for modelling and analysing complex processes in the absence of mathematical tractability. While this approach has been developed and promoted in engineering contexts for some time, it has more recently found a place in the mainstream of the study of chronic disease interventions such as cancer screening. The construction of a simulation model requires the specification of a model structure and sets of parameter values, both of which may have a considerable amount of uncertainty associated with them. This uncertainty is rarely quantified when reporting micro-simulation results. We suggest a Bayesian approach and assume a parametric probability distribution to mathematically express the uncertainty related to model parameters. First, we design a simulation experiment to achieve good coverage of the parameter space. Second, we model a response surface for the outcome of interest as a function of the model parameters using the simulation results. Third, we summarize the variability in the outcome of interest, including variation due to parameter uncertainty, using the response surface in combination with parameter probability distributions. We illustrate the proposed method with an application of a microsimulator designed to investigate the effect of prostate specific antigen (PSA) screening on prostate cancer mortality rates.

Analysis of case-control studies of screening: impact of misspecifying the duration of detectable preclinical pathologic changes

In case-control studies of screening to prevent cancer mortality, exposure is ideally defined as screening that takes place within that period prior to diagnosis during which the cancer is potentially detectable using the screening modality under study. This interval has been called the detectable preclinical period (DPP). Misspecifying the duration of the DPP can bias the results of such studies. This article quantifies the impact of incorrectly estimating the duration of the DPP or using the correct average DPP but failing to consider its variability. The authors developed a computer simulation model of disease incidence and mortality with and without screening. The authors then selected cases and controls from the generated population and compared their screening histories. The results indicate that underestimation of the duration of the DPP generally leads to greater bias than does overestimation, but in both instances the extent of the bias is modified by the relative length of the DPP and the average interscreening interval. In practice, the authors recommend that to prevent a falsely low estimate of the effectiveness of a screening test in reducing mortality, a high percentile of the DPP distribution be used when analyzing the results of case-control studies of screening.

Bayesian statistical methods in public health and medicine

This article reviews the Bayesian statistical approach to the design and analysis of research studies in the health sciences. The central idea of the Bayesian method is the use of study data to update the state of knowledge about a quantity of interest. In study design, the Bayesian approach explicitly incorporates expressions for the loss resulting from an incorrect decision at the end of the study. The Bayesian method also provides a flexible framework for the monitoring of sequential clinical trials. We present several examples of Bayesian methods in practice including a study of disease progression in AIDS, a comparison of two therapies in a clinical trial, and a case-control study investigating the link between dietary factors and breast cancer.

Design and analysis of cancer screening trials

This article reviews approaches to the design and analysis of cancer screening trials. After summarizing some basic screening concepts and potential pitfalls, we introduce several possible screening trial designs with examples from the literature. We review in detail methods for analyzing screening trial data, including testing for a significant difference in disease-specific mortality between the control and intervention groups, estimating the mortality differential if one exists, and evaluating the programme lead time, the screen sensitivity and the role of stage shifting. We consider Overall mortality analyses, which are based on the experience of the trial population, and Limited mortality analyses, which are based on the experience of comparable groups of cases in the control and intervention groups. We discuss methods for selecting candidate comparable case groups and confirming that they are in fact comparable. We conclude by showing how the principles discussed have been used in the planning and design of a current screening trial for multiple cancers.

Statistical models for the analysis of ordered categorical data in public health and medical research

In the late 1970s statisticians extended the methods for analysing loglinear and logit models for cross-classified categorical data to incorporate information about the ordinal structure of the categories corresponding to some of the classification variables. In this paper we review one class of such extensions known as association models. We consider association models with and without order restrictions on the parameters and we use these models to answer research questions about several medical examples involving ordered categorical data. We emphasize the interpretation of parameters in the association models and how this relates to the research questions of interest.