Pulsed-field ablation for paroxysmal atrial fibrillation: An indirect comparison of effectiveness among three proprietary devices conducted in the absence of randomized trials

INTRODUCTION

In patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation, pulsed-field ablation has been developed as an alternative to thermal ablation. Three devices are currently available: Farawave by Boston, PulseSelect by Medtronic, and Varipulse by Johnson. In the present report, we studied the outcomes at 12 months of these three devices using indirect comparisons.

METHODS

A standard PubMed search was conducted that identified all studies evaluating these devices in patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation. The endpoint was freedom from arrhythmia recurrence. Kaplan-Meier curves were subjected to the IPDfromKM method that generated reconstructed patients. Standard time-to-event statistical testss (including heterogeneity assessment) were performed.

RESULTS

Our analysis included 9 studies (8 single-arm and 1 randomized trial based on Farawave for a total of 1916 patients). A significant heterogeneity was found across the trials using Farawave because the outcomes found in the single-arm trials were better than those found in the randomized trial. Farawave (according exclusively to the results of the randomized trial), PulseSelect, and Varipulse showed a similar time-course of their respective outcomes with no significant difference. The single-arm trials using Farawave showed better outcomes than the randomized trial using Farawave and the pivotal trials using PulseSelect and Varipulse.

DISCUSSION

Our study provided an updated overview of all the studies that have so far used pulsed-fileld ablation in patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation.

Costs and benefits in patients with NYHA class III heart failure treated with CardioMEMS in Italy

Background

CardioMEMS is a device suitable for telemedicine that is currently being evaluated by the Regional Health Technology Assessment (HTA) Committee of Tuscany. Two detailed HTA reports are available in the specialized literature, the results of which need to be transferred to our regional setting. These decisions in Tuscany are made by the so-called Centro Operativo HTA.

Aim

To validate, with local cost-effectiveness data, the decision on CardioMEMS that will be made in the Tuscany region.

Methods

Two detailed international HTA reports were rearranged and adapted to our regional setting to generate a simplified analysis that could form the basis of our decision. Two willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds of €20,000/quality-adjusted life year (QALY) and €50,000/QALY were considered.

Results

Based on epidemiological and regulatory information, the target population in Tuscany for this device is 166 cases. The value-based price of CardioMEMS is estimated to be €4,332 and €16,662 at WTP thresholds of 20,000/QALY and 50,000/QALY, respectively. Its current price in Italy is €12,000.

Conclusion

In our region, the introduction of CardioMEMS is likely to be gradual, around 50 patients/year (or €0.60 million/year at current price). This example highlights the need to adapt the information published in the international literature to the local context in which the approval decision is made. In this context, simplified analyses are easier to apply than complex Markov models.

A Comparison of Statistical Analysis Between "Real" Patients Reported in Kaplan-Meier Curves and "Reconstructed" Patients Estimated Through the IPDfromKM Method: Analysis of Eight Trials Evaluating Catheter Ablation of Ventricular Tachycardia

Time-to-event endpoints are most widely used in oncology and, to a lesser extent, in cardiology. Typical statistical parameters employed in this context include overall survival, progression-free survival, and recurrence-free survival. The graphical presentation of the results is based on the Kaplan-Meier plot. When Kaplan-Meier curves are included in a meta-analysis, the typical methodological approach is a simplified one because the results of each trial (as well as those of the meta-analysis itself) are expressed through a 2x2 contingency; the methodological simplification is that the follow-up is left out from the analysis and, consequently, the Kaplan-Meier curves are omitted as well. The IPDfromKM method, developed in 2021, is an artificial intelligence algorithm designed to be used in these situations. According to this method, to keep the Kaplan-Meier curves in the meta-analysis, each curve is converted into a database of individual patients (which are denoted as "reconstructed" individual patients). In this way, for the purposes of the meta-analysis, the statistical methods are based on individual patients (like those of clinical trials) so that the Kaplan-Meier curves must not be excluded, and the effect of the follow-up can, therefore, be investigated. This technical report describes the IPDfromKM method in all of its operational details. To present the method, a meta-analysis investigating the effects of catheter ablation to prevent ventricular tachyarrhythmia (VT) has been taken as an example. The original meta-analysis, which included nine controlled trials, was published in February 2023 and adopted the simplified approach based on 2x2 contingency tables. We have reanalyzed these trials by using the IPDfromKM method. Overall, both the standard binary meta-analysis and the IPDfromKM method showed that ablation significantly reduces VT recurrence (hazard ratio, 0.820 for binary meta-analysis vs 0.728 for the IPDfromKM method). By contrast, while no heterogeneity was found by the binary method, the IPDfromKM found significant heterogeneity, which was confirmed by visual inspection of the Kaplan-Meier curves. This suggests that the results of the IPDfromKM method are more accurate because they include the effect of the follow-up on patients' outcomes. In conclusion, our reanalysis confirms the significant benefit determined by ablation, but a more pronounced degree of between-trial heterogeneity has been found. Finally, it should be stressed that, outside the field of meta-analysis, the IPDfromKM method is also applicable to carry out an indirect comparison between treatments that have never been compared in real clinical trials. In this case, reconstructed patients are analyzed by conducting a simulated comparative trial.

Estimation of Value-Based Price for 48 High-Technology Medical Devices

Value-based price is estimated quite frequently for medicines, but its application to medical devices is scarce. While some reports have been published in which this parameter has occasionally been determined for devices, no large-scale application has yet been reported. Our objective was to pursue a systematic analysis of the literature published on value-based prices of medical devices. Pertinent papers were selected upon the criterion that the value-based price was reported for the device examined. The real prices of the devices were compared with their values of value-based price and the ratios between real price versus value-based price were calculated. A total of 239 economic articles focused on high-technology medical devices were selected from a standard PubMed search. Among these, the proportion of analyses unsuitable for value-based price estimation was high (191/239; 80%), whereas adequate clinical and economic information for estimating this parameter was available in 48 cases (20%). Standard equations of cost-effectiveness were applied. The value-based price was determined according to a willingness-to-pay threshold of 60,000 € per quality-adjusted life year. Real prices of devices were compared with the corresponding estimates of value-based prices. From each analysis, we extracted also the value of incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Our final dataset included 47 analyses because one was published twice. There were five analyses in which the ICER could be estimated for the treatment, but not for the device. In the dataset of 42 analyses with complete information, 36 out of 42 devices (86%) were found to have an ICER lower than the pre-specified threshold (favorable ICER). Three ICERs were borderline. A separate analysis was conducted on the other three devices that showed an ICER substantially greater than the threshold (unfavorable ICER). Regarding value-based prices, the values of real price were appreciably lower than the corresponding value-based price in 36 cases (86%). For three devices, the real price was substantially higher than the value-based price. In the remaining three cases, real prices and value-based prices were very similar. To our knowledge, this is the first experience in which a systematic analysis of the literature has been focused on the application of value-based pricing in the field of high-technology devices. Our results are encouraging and suggest a wider application of cost-effectiveness in this field.

Managing Tenders in the Procurement of Advanced Medical Devices: An Original Model Based on the Net Monetary Benefit Combined With Three Clinical Endpoints

In medical devices, recent studies have proposed original approaches for standardizing competitive tenders with the aim of promoting reproducibility, avoiding discretional decisions, and applying value-based principles. In the framework of tenders' standardization, the net monetary benefit (NMB) method has attracted much interest, but its mathematical complexity has prevented a wide application. In the present work, we developed a procurement model that simplifies clinical information management for high-technology devices purchased for our public hospitals. Our objective was to promote the application of NMB in competitive tenders, particularly at the final stage of the procurement process, where the tender scores are determined. Software to facilitate this task in everyday practice has been developed. This software is made available through the present technical report. We surveyed the most relevant literature about NMB to select the main models commonly used in the studies published thus far. Standard equations of cost-effectiveness were identified. A simplified computation model based on three clinical endpoints was developed to estimate the NMB with less mathematical complexity. This model is proposed as an alternative to the standard approach based on a full economic analysis. The model developed herein has been implemented in a web-based software freely available on the Internet. This software is accompanied by a detailed description of the equations by which the NMB is estimated. A detailed application example is reported; a real tender carried out in 2021 has been re-examined for this purpose. In this re-analysis, the new software has been used to calculate the NMB of three devices. To our knowledge, this is the first experience in which an institution of the Italian healthcare system has evaluated the NMB as a tool for determining tender scores. The model is designed to offer performance similar to a full economic analysis. Our preliminary results are encouraging and suggest a wider application of this method. This approach has important implications regarding cost-effectiveness and cost containment because a value-based procurement is known to maximize effectiveness without determining an increase in costs.

Estimation of Value-Based Price for Five High-Technology Medical Devices Approved by a Regional Health Technology Assessment Committee in Italy

Background and objectives

Value-based pricing (VBP) is used quite frequently for medicines, but its application to medical devices is very limited. The objective of the present study was to conduct a pilot experience of systematic estimation of the value-based price of medical devices from the perspective of our national health system. Our experience was focused on high-technology devices (class IIb/III and active implantable). The objective was to evaluate the applicability of VBP in a real-world setting and to estimate the value-based price of devices in all cases where this estimation was feasible.

Methods

The dataset analysed in this work consists of 24 new devices approved consecutively in the Tuscany region over the period from January 2020 to December 2021. Since the calculation of value-based price requires the availability of a cost-effectiveness analysis, we searched for this information for each of these devices. The Cost-Effectiveness Analysis (CEA) Registry of Tufts Medical Center (US) and the health technology assessment (HTA) reports of our region were considered adequate sources of these data. Standard equations of cost-effectiveness were applied to determine the value-based price for these devices, and these prices were compared with the corresponding real prices charged in our region.

Results

We found adequate information for five devices (21%) out of the total of 24. In three of these cases, the published analysis taken as a reference was based on Markov modelling. The comparison between value-based prices and real prices generally showed an acceptable concordance, though with a couple of outliers. An important finding is that, in a large proportion of cases (79%), the information needed for this calculation was lacking.

Conclusion

To our knowledge, this is the first experience in which an institution of the healthcare system has tried a systematic application of VBP in the field of high-technology devices. Our results are encouraging and suggest a wider application of cost-effectiveness in this field.

Current treatments for inoperable mesothelioma: indirect comparisons based on individual patient data reconstructed retrospectively from 4 trials

In inoperable pleural mesothelioma, pemetrexed + cisplatin as first line is considered the standard of care, but novel treatments have been recently proposed. Our objective was to comparatively examine the information on overall survival (OS) with these new agents. The Shiny technique was employed for reconstructing individual patient data. Cox statistics was run to estimate hazard ratios (HRs). After a standard literature search, four new treatments were identified (nivolumab + ipilimumab, bevacizumab + pemetrexed + cisplatin, pembrolizumab monotherapy, and durvalumab + pemetrexed + cisplatin). Pemetrexed + ciplatin was the treatment for controls. Nivolumab + ipilimumab and bevacizumab + pemetrexed + cisplatin showed a better OS compared with controls (HR, 0.79 and 0.79, respectively; p < 0.05). Pembrolizumab determined only a numerical improvement (p > 0.05). In contrast, OS worsened with durvalumab + pemetrexed + cisplatin. Our analysis indicates that the novel treatments for inoperable mesothelioma have similar efficacy and, in general, provide a small though significant survival benefit compared with standard of care. Further research is needed to identify agents determining a more substantial OS improvement.

Relationship Between Price and Diagnosis-Related Group Tariff for Medical Devices Assessed by a Regional Health Technology Assessment Committee

Introduction

Medical devices (MDs) make up an important share of total in-hospital expenditure. At the level of individual patients, this share is represented by the ratio of the cost of MD incurred by the patient vs. the total cost of in-hospital care for the same patient. If tariffs rather than costs are considered, the denominator of this ratio is given by the diagnosis-related group (DRG) and the ratio is the cost of MD over DRG tariff. The objective of this paper is to present a retrospective analysis comparing the ratio of price vs. DRG tariff for a group of devices belonging to risk class III or active implantable. These devices are those assessed in the years 2020 and 2021 by two committees of the Tuscany region in Italy.

Materials and methods

The information on price and DRG was taken from the health technology assessment (HTA) reports concerning MDs evaluated by the two above-mentioned regional committees in the years 2020 and 2021. In these reports, the information on the cost-effectiveness ratio was reported for a subset of MDs. In all cases, a preliminary qualitative assessment was carried out to determine the presence or absence of a healthcare impact in the post-discharge phase. In these preliminary analyses, the perspective of NHS was adopted.

Results

Our analysis was focused on 24 devices of either class III or active implantable. According to our results, a wide variability was found in the ratios between device price and DRG associated with its use. This ratio ranged from a minimum of about 3% in the case of the Hyalobarrier gel (Nordic Pharma GmbH, Zürich, Switzerland) for post-surgical adhesion to a maximum of 132% in the case of the Neovasc Reducer (EPS Vascular AB, Viken, Sweden), a device indicated in the narrowed coronary sinus. Three devices, i.e., PuraStat (3-D Matrix, Ltd., Tokyo, Japan), Ascyrus Medical Dissection Stent (AMDS, CryoLife, Inc., Kennesaw, GA), and Tendyne (Abbott Cardiovascular, Plymouth, MN), were found to be priced more than the reimbursement tariff (i.e., ratio > 100%). Ratios between 50% and 100% were found in about half of the devices. From our preliminary assessment on the presence of a post-discharge impact, 15 devices out of 24 (62%) were found to determine a substantial impact, while the remaining nine (38%) did not. In general, when costs and benefits of a device do not extend beyond the patients’ discharge, the presence of a ratio > 100% reliably suggests the conclusion that the device price needs to be reduced and/or the tariff needs to be increased. On the other hand, in cases where the device extends its impact beyond the patient’s hospital stay, the decision of reducing price or increasing tariff becomes more complex, and so these adjustments cannot be determined unless more information on some critical aspects is made available.

Conclusions

Until the above-mentioned improvements do not take place, rational interventions on DRG are virtually unfeasible owing to this lack of critical information. On the other hand, it is also difficult to intervene on device prices, again owing to the lack of critical information.

Medical Therapy, Radiofrequency Ablation, or Cryoballoon Ablation as First-Line Treatment for Paroxysmal Atrial Fibrillation: Interpreting Efficacy Through the Shiny Method

In patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation, cryoballoon ablation (CBA) and radiofrequency ablation (RFA) represent two therapeutic approaches supported by increasing literature. While both these ablation techniques play a role during different stages of the patient’s therapeutic pathway, their use as first-line is being increasingly recognized. This scoping review comparatively examined the evidence of effectiveness for these two ablation techniques.

Our analysis was limited to the evaluation of the end-point of time to recurrence of atrial fibrillation (or other forms of atrial arrhythmias), which was the primary end-point in most clinical trials. The method used for pooling the information from clinical trials (Shiny method) is original and based on an artificial intelligence (AI) method that reconstructs individual patient data from published Kaplan-Meier time-to-event curves. Because a network meta-analysis has been published on this same clinical material, one objective of the present work was to compare the meta-analytic results with those generated by the Shiny method.

A standard literature search was conducted on PubMed/Medline. Only randomized studies comparing CBA versus medical therapy, RFA versus medical therapy, or CBA versus RFA in previously untreated patients were eligible. Trials presenting a Kaplan-Meier curve to present the above-mentioned end-point were included. Patient-level data were reconstructed by application of the Shiny method. These individual patient data were then analyzed by standard statistical testing based on hazard ratio (HR) for risk of recurrence and medians of time to recurrence. Our analysis compared the two ablation treatments and medical therapy.

A total of five trials were identified through our literature search. Information from these trials was pooled according to the three treatments (CBA: three trials, n = 365; RFA: two trials, n = 99; medical therapy: five trials, n = 457). CBA showed higher effectiveness than medical therapy (HR, 0.51; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.38 to 0.67). In comparison with medical therapy, RFA showed a numerical trend that remained far from statistical significance (HR, 0.89; 95% CI: 0.62 to 1.27). Medians for time to recurrence were 14.1 months (95% CI: 10.0 to not reached) for RFA and 11.5 months (95% CI: 9.3 to 25.3) for medical therapy. This parameter was not reached for CBA.

The current evidence from five randomized trials suggests that CBA ranks first in effectiveness, followed by RFA and medical therapy. In our comparison between the results generated by the Shiny method with those published in the previous meta-analysis, the Shiny method confirmed its ability to account for the length of follow-up in individual trials, whereas the meta-analytic approach confirmed its ability to account for the effects of randomizations performed in the trials.

Medical therapy, radiofrequency ablation or cryoballoon ablation as first-line treatment for paroxysmal atrial fibrillation: interpreting efficacy through restricted mean survival time and network meta-analysis

When multiple treatments are available, network meta-analysis can evaluate data to rank the relative effectiveness. We applied this approach to first-line treatments for paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (medical therapy, radiofrequency ablation or cryoballoon ablation). Individual trials were analysed based on the restricted mean survival time (RMST). Randomised controlled trials (RCT) assessing first-line treatments for paroxysmal atrial fibrillation were referenced from PubMed and the websites of regulatory agencies. The primary end-point was atrial fibrillation recurrence-free survival at 12 months. The treatments assessed for their relative effectiveness were medical therapy, radiofrequency ablation and cryoballoon ablation. Individual trials were examined based on RMST. A Bayesian network meta-analysis was conducted to comparatively evaluate these treatments. Five trials were included in the analysis: two compared radiofrequency with medical treatment and three cryoballoon ablation with medical treatment. The indirect comparison of radiofrequency ablation vs cryoballoon ablation was assessed in the absence of RCTs. Differences in RMST (with 95% credible intervals) were estimated for all binary comparisons (direct or indirect). Radiofrequency and cryoballoon ablation showed significantly increased effectiveness compared with medical treatment. In the indirect comparison, radiofrequency showed a non-significant advantage over cryoballoon ablation. The ranking of effectiveness was as follows: (1) radiofrequency; (2) cryoballoon ablation; (3) medical treatment. In conclusion, we found that radiofrequency was the most effective treatment for paroxysmal atrial fibrillation according to a Bayesian probabilistic model.

Simplified figure to present direct and indirect comparisons: Revisiting the graph 10 years later

A “simplified” figure was proposed in 2011 to summarize the results of controlled trials that evaluate different treatments aimed at the same disease condition. The original criteria for classifying individual binary comparisons included superiority, inferiority and no significance difference; hence, they did not differentiate between no proof of difference vs proof of no difference. We updated the criteria employed in the original “simplified” figure in order to include this differentiation. A revised version of the simplified figure is proposed and described herein. An example of application is also presented. The example is focused on first-line treatments for paroxysmal atrial fibrillation. Three treatments (medical therapy, cryoballoon ablation, radiofrequency ablation) are compared with one another through direct and indirect comparisons.

The Restricted Mean Survival Time as a Tool for Ranking Comparative Outcomes in a Narrative Review that Evaluates a Network of Randomized Trials: An Example Based on PCSK9 Inhibitors

INTRODUCTION

On the basis of two randomized trials, evolocumab and alirocumab have been approved in patients with cardiovascular disease. The evidence on these two agents has been studied through different methods of analysis that span from narrative approaches to network meta-analysis. In the present study, we assessed the performance of a narrative approach combined with the application of the restricted mean survival time (RMST).

METHODS

We studied the two pivotal placebo-controlled trials focused on evolocumab and alirocumab. Our original framework of comparative assessment employed the RMST. Our objective was to show that in the context of a narrative review, the RMST can be an efficient although simple tool to make indirect comparisons. The endpoint was event-free survival, expressed in months.

RESULTS

For each cohort of patients (13,784 patients administered evolocumab, 9462 patients administered alirocumab, 23,242 controls), we determined the RMST values with 95% confidence intervals (CI) [evolocumab: 33.60 months, 95% CI 33.46-33.74; alirocumab: 34.07 months, 95% CI 33.92-34.22]. These results, along with those of the control groups, were analyzed and interpreted narratively. Univariate statistics were conducted, but no network meta-analysis was performed.

CONCLUSION

The experience presented herein indicates that a framework of evidence assessment focused on the RMST is a worthwhile option. Our study is in line with the growing literature that has recently emphasized the methodological advantages of the RMST.

The restricted mean survival time as a replacement for the hazard ratio and the number needed to treat in long-term studies

Aims

We applied the restricted mean survival time (RMST) to analyse the survival data reported in the PARADIGM‐HT trial in which sacubitril + valsartan was studied in comparison with enalapril in patients with heart failure. The estimates of this parameter were compared with the published values of hazard ratio (HR).

Methods

Two endpoints were evaluated: a composite of death or hospitalization and cardiovascular death. Our analyses were performed by considering the original follow‐up of 41.4 months and on the basis of a lifetime perspective. All statistical calculations were carried out using specific packages developed under the R‐platform.

Results

According to our RMST analysis, the results for the composite endpoint in the comparison of sacubitril + valsartan vs. enalapril showed an improvement from 32.9 to 34.2 months (gain of 1.25 months). This result is based on a time horizon of 41.4 months. The results for the cardiovascular mortality endpoint showed a RMST of 37.2 months for sacubitril + valsartan vs. 36.2 for enalapril (gain of 0.96 months). In the two lifetime analyses, the improvements were much more relevant and yielded a gain of 25.8 months for the composite endpoint and 27.6 months for survival free from cardiovascular death.

Conclusions

Using the data of the PARADIGM‐HT trial, our analysis confirmed that the RMST has documented advantages over the HR, particularly when the clinical study is characterized by a long follow‐up. The number needed to treat (NNT) has a more specific methodological role and cannot be replaced by the RMST.

Outcomes at 5 years in patients with severe aortic stenosis: reviewing current information using the restricted mean survival time

The information about outcomes at 5 years in patients receiving transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) has grown. We interpreted the information on this topic using the restricted mean survival time (RMST). The purpose of our study was to summarise the current evidence using an original outcome measure with potential methodological advantages. Four cohorts of patients, previously published in the literature, met our criterion of 5 years of follow-up after the implant; another cohort was identified from a group of controls subjected to surgical replacement of the valve. The estimated values of RMST at 5 years for the 5 patient cohorts were the following (N = number of patients, all time values in years): a) real-world high surgical risk cohort: N = 114, RMST = 3.80; b) real-world cohort treated with Corevalve: N = 309, RMST = 3.79; c) a real-world cohort treated with Sapien: N = 180, RMST = 3.61; d) TAVR arm of a randomized trial in intermediate risk patients: N = 1,011; RMST = 3.73; e) surgical replacement arm of the same trial: N = 1,021, RMST = 3.72. The main result of our analysis based on the RMST is represented by the extreme homogeneity of the outcomes (RMSTs ranging from 3.61 to 3.80 years per patient) that remained virtually constant irrespective of the baseline risk of the patients (intermediate or high risk) and regardless of whether the intervention was transcatheter or by surgical replacement. Last but not least, our analysis showed the good methodological performance of the RMST in this disease condition.

Tenders for the Procurement of Medical Devices: Adapting Cost-Effectiveness Rules to the Requirements of the European Public Procurement Directive

BACKGROUND

In evaluating 3 or more comparators, pharmacoeconomic analyses can be improved by using the methodology of net monetary benefit (NMB) as opposed to incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). NMB is particularly suitable for managing competitive tenders that evaluate 3 or more devices in the same lot. For scientific purposes, the methodology of NMB is perfectly adequate. However, when tenders are managed in European countries, the Public Procurement Directive states that the tender score for price should be kept separate from that of clinical benefits. As a result, the traditional mathematical approach of NMB must be rearranged to comply with this administrative requirement.

METHODS

In this report, we describe how the classic equations of NMB should be modified to achieve this purpose. The mathematical principle of proportionality, which is typical of the ICER, must be replaced by the principle of mathematical additivity, which is typical of NMB. Furthermore, to rearrange the scale of benefits according to the NMB, an estimate is needed of the minimum acceptable benefit converted into monetary units, which is associated with 0 in the benefit scale.

RESULTS

A detailed example is presented to explain the practical application of these mathematical equations. These equations are widely applicable in the field of implantable devices.

CONCLUSION

Since the expenditure for medical devices in European hospitals is close to that of hospital medicines, tenders for the in-hospital procurement of devices may represent a decisive tool to manage sustainability and ensure access to innovation. In this context, the methodology for managing clinical outcomes through tenders requires a specific mathematical approach that we have described in the present article.

Handling the procurement of prostheses for total hip replacement: description of an original value based approach and application to a real-life dataset reported in the UK

OBJECTIVES

In most European countries, innovative medical devices are not managed according to cost-utility methods, the reason being that national agencies do not generally evaluate these products. The objective of our study was to investigate the cost-utility profile of prostheses for hip replacement and to calculate a value-based score to be used in the process of procurement and tendering for these devices.

METHODS

The first phase of our study was aimed at retrieving the studies reporting the values of QALYs, direct cost, and net monetary benefit (NMB) from patients undergoing total hip arthroplasty (THA) with different brands of hip prosthesis. The second phase was aimed at calculating, on the basis of the results of cost-utility analysis, a tender score for each device (defined according to standard tendering equations and adapted to a 0-100 scale). This allowed us to determine the ranking of each device in the simulated tender.

RESULTS

We identified a single study as the source of information for our analysis. Nine device brands (cemented, cementless, or hybrid) were evaluated. The cemented prosthesis Exeter V40/Elite Plus Ogee, the cementless device Taperloc/Exceed, and the hybrid device Exeter V40/Trident had the highest NMB (£152 877, £156 356, and £156 210, respectively) and the best value-based tender score.

CONCLUSIONS

The incorporation of value-based criteria in the procurement process can contribute to optimising the value for money for THA devices. According to the approach described herein, the acquisition of these devices does not necessarily converge on the product with the lowest cost; in fact, more costly devices should be preferred when their increased cost is offset by the monetary value of the increased clinical benefit.

Value-based procurement of prostheses for total knee replacement

Cost-effectiveness evaluations concerning devices for total knee arthroplasty (TKA) have little impact on real-life management of these devices. This study explored how pharmacoeconomic models can inform the procurement of TKA devices to improve their value for money. Our study included three phases: i) literature search for data of outcome, cost, and device type in TKA; ii) development of a Markov model predicting costs, QALYs, and net monetary benefit (NMB); iii) simulation of tenders aimed at value-based device procurement. Phases 1 and 2 were managed by selecting a single study as the source of data for our analysis. In Phase 3, each TKA device was associated with its values of NMB, and the tender scores were estimated. Finally, the ranking of each device in the simulated tender was determined. We identified a study published in 2016 as our source of data. Five devices were evaluated. For these devices, QALYs were 7.3952, 7.2939, 7.4952, 7.1919, 7.2930; NMB: £142,005, £140,653, £144,184, £138,040, £140,261; tender scores: 64.53, 42.53, 100, 0, 36.15, respectively. We showed that incorporating the principles of cost-effectiveness into the tendering process is feasible for TKA devices. This can maximize the value for money for these devices.

[Procurement of medical devices based on cost-effectiveness data.]

The field of medical devices is characterized by a paucity of cost-effectiveness data that support their use. In this context, we have proposed a project based on the calculation of net monetary benefit (NMB) for each product subjected to procurement through tenders. This project consists of two steps: 1) calculation of NMB; 2) calculation of a value-based score to be used in the process of procurement and tendering. The NMB is defined as follows: NMB per patient= (monetary threshold of WTP) x (QALYs per patient) - (treatment cost per patient); WTP= willingness to pay]. Its main advantage is represented by the linear relation between NMB and unit price as opposed to the non-linear relationship that links the ICER to the unit price of the device. For all devices included in the same tender lot, our procedure firstly determines the valus of NMB and converts the NMB into a tender score determined on a 0-to-100 scale. The device with the worst pharmacoeconomic profile is assigned a tender score of 0 while the one with the best pharmacoeconomic profile is assigned a tender score of 100.

Non-inferiority of colistin compared with standard care for the treatment of ventilator-associated pneumonia

This study examined the literature on the treatment of ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) using colistin or standard care (SC). Based on this clinical material, a meta-analysis was conducted and a non-inferiority test was performed. Studies were selected for inclusion based on the following criteria: (a) patients with VAP; (b) experimental arm based on intravenous or aerosolized colistin; and (c) control arm based on SC. The meta-analysis employed a fixed-effect model, and the endpoint was the rate of clinical response. No pre-specified non-inferiority threshold for the upper boundary of the 95% confidence interval was adopted; instead, the intention was to perform a retrospective evaluation of whether the threshold suggested by the results was acceptable on clinical grounds. In total, eight controlled studies were included. The pooled risk ratio was 1.019 for colistin compared with SC (95% confidence interval 0.895-1.16); this result corresponds to a non-significant 1.9% increase in cure rate with colistin compared with SC (range +16% to -10.5%). Heterogeneity was minimal (0%). The post-hoc non-inferiority threshold for colistin compared with SC was -10.5% in terms of relative cure rate (pooled risk ratio = 0.895). This margin was considered to be acceptable on clinical grounds. This analysis found that colistin can play a role in the treatment of VAP, particularly when given as a combination of aerosolized and intravenous drug.

Economic analysis of not running tenders for recombinant Factor VIII procurement: a simplified analysis to estimate an otherwise unknown pharmacoeconomic index

Background

Two approaches to the procurement of recombinant Factor VIII products are used by health systems: (A) the most common approach where acquisition tenders are not carried out; (B) the approach tested in the UK in which procurement is based on tenders. The respective cost-effectiveness is not known.

Objective

To estimate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for the comparison A vs B.

Methods

The analysis evaluated: (i) Factor VIII cost with/without tenders; (ii) inhibitor development caused by switching between products; (iii) clinical and economic consequences of inhibitors. Information on these items was obtained from a literature search. Because of the scarce evidence available on some items, our analysis considered the 'most favourable' scenario-that is, some extreme though reasonable assumptions were adopted that were intentionally biased towards improving the ICER of the no-tender option.

Results and discussion

We estimated an ICER for A vs B of £486 409 (€657 139; £1=€1.351) per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). Since pharmacoeconomic thresholds are ∼£30 000 per QALY, our results indicate that the cost-effectiveness of acquisition strategies that avoid tenders is prohibitive. Because of the simplified nature of our analysis, this estimate is preliminary.

Conclusions

The 'true' ICER of A vs B remains unknown, but its value is likely to be even worse than the unfavourable ICER of £486 409 (€657 139) per QALY.

First-line treatments for chronic lymphocytic leukaemia: interpreting efficacy data by network meta-analysis

When multiple treatments are available, network meta-analysis can synthesize evidence and rank relative effectiveness. We applied this approach to current treatments for previously untreated chronic lymphocytic leukaemia. Data search was conducted in PubMed and websites of regulatory agencies (year 2000 through present time). Our analysis included randomized controlled trials assessing treatments for previously untreated chronic lymphocytic leukaemia. The endpoint of the analysis was the rate of progression-free survival at 3 years. At least two reviewers abstracted study data and outcomes. Agents examined for their relative effectiveness included four monotherapies (chlorambucil, fludarabine, bendamustine, alemtuzumab) and four combination treatments (cyclophosphamide + fludarabine, cyclophosphamide + cladribine, cyclophosphamide + fludarabine + rituximab, cyclophosphamide + fludarabine + alemtuzumab). A Bayesian network meta-analysis was conducted to comparatively evaluate these treatments. Nine trials (3620 patients) were included in the analysis. Odds ratio (with 95 % credible intervals) was estimated for all direct and indirect comparisons. Combinations treatments were found to be significantly more effective than single-agent treatments. Ranking in effectiveness was as follows: (1) cyclophosphamide + fludarabine + rituximab, (2) alemtuzumab, (3) cyclophosphamide + fludarabine + alemtuzumab, (4) cyclophosphamide + fludarabine and (at same ranking) cyclophosphamide + cladribine, (6) fludarabine, (7) bendamustine and (8) chlorambucil. Bendamustine fared worse in our analysis than in its pivotal trial. Overall, the estimated rankings appeared to be robust according to probabilistic analysis. Numerous indirect comparisons were assessed in the absence of RCTs. In conclusion, we generated an updated synthesis of the effectiveness of these treatments and we ranked them according to a Bayesian probabilistic model. In our probabilistic analysis, cyclophosphamide + fludarabine + rituximab ranked first in the base case while the worst-case scenario of this analysis placed this treatment at a remarkable second place.

Gastrointestinal and renal side effects of bisphosphonates: differentiating between no proof of difference and proof of no difference

BACKGROUND

This study was aimed at comparing the safety of bisphosphonates in women with osteoporosis by application of equivalence testing.

METHODS

Gastrointestinal and renal side effects were evaluated based on information published in randomized controlled trials.

RESULTS

The data on gastrointestinal side effects (47 trials) indicated that alendronate, risedronate etidronate, and zolendronate have similar rates of the adverse effects; application of Bayesian network meta-analysis showed that equivalence was demonstrated according to margins around ±10%. The data on renal safety were more sparse and suffered from the use of different outcome measures; hence, a single trial could be evaluated. This trial showed a similar effect of alendronate and risedronate on renal function at 12 months; equivalence was based on differences between the two agents in renal function with margins of less than ±10.4 ml/min.

CONCLUSION

Our study provided quantitative information to determine to what extent bisphosphonates can be considered equivalent in terms of gastrointestinal and renal side effects.

Subcutaneous Biological Treatments for Moderate to Severe Psoriasis: Interpreting Safety Data by Network Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

When multiple treatments are available, network meta-analysis can synthesize evidence and rank their relative profile in terms of effectiveness and/or safety. We applied this approach to the safety of subcutaneous biologicals used in the treatment of moderate to severe psoriasis.

METHODS

Our literature search covered the articles published from January 2000 to September 2014 and was restricted to randomized controlled trials. The agents eligible for our analysis were subcutaneous biological drugs used in patients with moderate to severe psoriasis. A network meta-analysis was conducted using the Bayesian model. The analysis was aimed to compare the safety of these treatments based on 95 % credible intervals and to consequently generate a ranking in safety across the treatments. Two safety end-points were considered: any serious adverse events (AE) and any infectious AE. Risk difference was the outcome measure. The analysis estimated 95 % credible intervals for all direct and indirect comparisons as well as the ranking histogram across the treatments which was determined according to model-based probabilistic analysis.

RESULTS

Our literature search selected a total of 13 randomized controlled trials of which three evaluated adalimumab, five ustekinumab (45 and 90 mg), four etanercept (both high-dose and low-dose) and one high-dose etanercept and ustekinumab (45 and 90 mg). For both end-points of any serious AE and any infectious AE, the Bayesian analysis showed no significant difference in all indirect head-to-head comparisons between active agents. For the end-point of any serious AE, the ranking was ustekinumab 45 mg and ustekinumab 90 mg (at the same rank), followed by placebo and by adalimumab and high-dose etanercept (at the same rank). For any infectious AE, the ranking was: low-dose etanercept, placebo, ustekinumab 45 mg and ustekinumab 90 mg, adalimumab and high-dose etanercept.

CONCLUSION

Our analysis synthesized the current evidence on the safety of subcutaneous biological treatments for patients with moderate to severe psoriasis and was successful in defining their respective rankings.

Biological drugs for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis by the subcutaneous route: interpreting efficacy data to assess statistical equivalence

BACKGROUND

No equivalence analysis has yet been conducted on the effectiveness of biologics in rheumatoid arthritis. Equivalence testing has a specific scientific interest, but can also be useful for deciding whether acquisition tenders are feasible for the pharmacological agents being compared.

METHODS

Our search covered the literature up to August 2014. Our methodology was a combination of standard pairwise meta-analysis, Bayesian network meta-analysis and equivalence testing. The agents examined for their potential equivalence were etanercept, adalimumab, golimumab, certolizumab, and tocilizumab, each in combination with methotrexate (MTX). The reference treatment was MTX monotherapy. The endpoint was ACR50 achievement at 12 months. Odds ratio was the outcome measure. The equivalence margins were established by analyzing the statistical power data of the trials.

RESULTS

Our search identified seven randomized controlled trials (2846 patients). No study was retrieved for tocilizumab, and so only four biologics were evaluable. The equivalence range was set at odds ratio from 0.56 to 1.78. There were 10 head-to-head comparisons (4 direct, 6 indirect). Bayesian network meta-analysis estimated the odds ratio (with 90% credible intervals) for each of these comparisons. Between-trial heterogeneity was marked. According to our results, all credible intervals of the 10 comparisons were wide and none of them satisfied the equivalence criterion. A superiority finding was confirmed for the treatment with MTX plus adalimumab or certolizumab in comparison with MTX monotherapy, but not for the other two biologics.

CONCLUSION

Our results indicate that these four biologics improved the rates of ACR50 achievement, but there was an evident between-study heterogeneity. The head-to-head indirect comparisons between individual biologics showed no significant difference, but failed to demonstrate the proof of no difference (i.e. equivalence). This body of evidence presently precludes any option of undertaking competitive tenderings for the procurement of these agents.