Estimated global and regional causes of deaths from diarrhoea in children younger than 5 years during 2000-21: a systematic review and Bayesian multinomial analysis

BACKGROUND

Information on the causes of deaths from diarrhoea in children younger than 5 years is needed to design improved preventive and therapeutic approaches. We aimed to conduct a systematic analysis of studies to report estimates of the causes of deaths from diarrhoea in children younger than 5 years at global and regional levels during 2000-21.

METHODS

For this systematic review and Bayesian multinomial analysis, we included 12 pathogens with the highest attributable incidence in the Global Enteric Multicenter Study. We searched PubMed, Scopus, Embase, Web of Science, Global Health Index Medicus, Global Health OVID, IndMed, Health Information Platform for the Americas (PLISA), Africa-Wide Information, and Cochrane Collaboration for articles published between Jan 1, 2000, and Dec 31, 2020, using the search terms "child", "hospital", "diarrhea", "diarrhoea", "dysentery", "rotavirus", "Escherichia coli", "salmonella", "shigella", "campylobacter", "Vibrio cholerae", "cryptosporidium", "norovirus", "astrovirus", "sapovirus", and "adenovirus". To be included, studies had to have a patient population of children younger than 5 years who were hospitalised for diarrhoea (at least 90% of study participants), at least a 12-month duration, reported prevalence in diarrhoeal stools of at least two of the 12 pathogens, all patients with diarrhoea being included at the study site or a systematic sample, at least 100 patients with diarrhoea, laboratory tests done on rectal swabs or stool samples, and standard laboratory methods (ie, quantitative PCR [qPCR] or non-qPCR). Studies published in any language were included. Studies were excluded if they were limited to nosocomial, chronic, antibiotic-associated, or outbreak diarrhoea or to a specific population (eg, only children with HIV or AIDS). Each article was independently reviewed by two researchers; a third arbitrated in case of disagreement. If both reviewers identified an exclusion criterion, the study was excluded. Data sought were summary estimates. Data on causes from published studies were adjusted when necessary to account for the poor sensitivity of non-qPCR methods and for attributable fraction based on quantification of pathogens in children who are ill or non-ill. The causes of deaths from diarrhoea were modelled on the causes of hospitalisations for diarrhoea. We separately modelled studies reporting causes of diarrhoea in children who were hospitalised in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) and in high-income countries (HICs).

FINDINGS

Of 74 282 papers identified in the initial database search, we included 138 studies (91 included data from LMICs and 47 included data from HICs) from 73 countries. We modelled estimates for 194 WHO member states (hereafter referred to as countries), including 42 HICs and 152 LMICs. We could attribute a cause to 1 003 448 (83·8%) of the estimated 1 197 044 global deaths from diarrhoea in children younger than 5 years in 2000 and 360 730 (81·3%) of the estimated 443 833 global deaths from diarrhoea in children younger than 5 years in 2021. The cause with the largest estimated global attribution was rotavirus; in LMICs, the proportion of deaths from diarrhoea due to rotavirus in children younger than 5 years appeared lower in 2021 (108 322 [24·4%] of 443 342, 95% uncertainty interval 21·6-29·5) than in 2000 (316 382 [26·5%] of 1 196 134, 25·7-28·5), but the 95% CIs overlapped. In 2000, the second largest estimated attribution was norovirus GII (95 817 [8·0%] of 1 196 134 in LMICs and 225 [24·7%] of 910 in HICs); in 2021, Shigella sp had the second largest estimated attribution in LMICs (36 082 [8·1%] of 443 342), but norovirus remained with the second largest estimated attribution in HICs (84 [17·1%] of 490).

INTERPRETATION

Our results indicate progress in the reduction of deaths from diarrhoea caused by 12 pathogens in children younger than 5 years in the past two decades. There is a need to increase efforts for prevention, including with rotavirus vaccine, and treatment to eliminate further deaths.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation via Johns Hopkins University and the University of Virginia.

Early Initiation of Ceftaroline-Based Combination Therapy for Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus Bacteremia

Purpose

Monotherapy with vancomycin or daptomycin remains guideline-based care for methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia (MRSA-B) despite concerns regarding efficacy. Limited data support potential benefit of combination therapy with ceftaroline as initial therapy. We present an assessment of outcomes of patients initiated on early combination therapy for MRSA-B.

Methods

This was a single-center, retrospective study of adult patients admitted with MRSA-B between July 1, 2017 and April 31, 2023. During this period, there was a change in institutional practice from routine administration of monotherapy to initial combination therapy for most patients with MRSA-B. Combination therapy included vancomycin or daptomycin plus ceftaroline within 72 hours of index blood culture and monotherapy was vancomycin or daptomycin alone. The primary outcome was a composite of persistent bacteremia, 30-day all-cause mortality, and 30-day bacteremia recurrence. Time to microbiological cure and safety outcomes were assessed. All outcomes were assessed using propensity score-weighted logistic regression.

Results

Of 213 patients included, 118 received monotherapy (115 vancomycin, 3 daptomycin) and 95 received combination therapy with ceftaroline (76 vancomycin, 19 daptomycin). The mean time from MRSA-positive molecular diagnostic blood culture result to combination therapy was 12.1 hours. There was no difference between groups for the primary composite outcome (OR 1.58, 95% CI 0.60, 4.18). Time to microbiological cure was longer with combination therapy (mean difference 1.50 days, 95% CI 0.60, 2.41). Adverse event rates were similar in both groups.

Conclusions

Early initiation of ceftaroline-based combination therapy did not improve outcomes for patients with MRSA-B in comparison to monotherapy therapy.

Real-time sewage surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 in Dhaka, Bangladesh versus clinical COVID-19 surveillance: a longitudinal environmental surveillance study (December, 2019-December, 2021)

BACKGROUND

Clinical surveillance for COVID-19 has typically been challenging in low-income and middle-income settings. From December, 2019, to December, 2021, we implemented environmental surveillance in a converging informal sewage network in Dhaka, Bangladesh, to investigate SARS-CoV-2 transmission across different income levels of the city compared with clinical surveillance.

METHODS

All sewage lines were mapped, and sites were selected with estimated catchment populations of more than 1000 individuals. We analysed 2073 sewage samples, collected weekly from 37 sites, and 648 days of case data from eight wards with varying socioeconomic statuses. We assessed the correlations between the viral load in sewage samples and clinical cases.

FINDINGS

SARS-CoV-2 was consistently detected across all wards (low, middle, and high income) despite large differences in reported clinical cases and periods of no cases. The majority of COVID-19 cases (26 256 [55·1%] of 47 683) were reported from Ward 19, a high-income area with high levels of clinical testing (123 times the number of tests per 100 000 individuals compared with Ward 9 [middle-income] in November, 2020, and 70 times the number of tests per 100 000 individuals compared with Ward 5 [low-income] in November, 2021), despite containing only 19·4% of the study population (142 413 of 734 755 individuals). Conversely, a similar quantity of SARS-CoV-2 was detected in sewage across different income levels (median difference in high-income vs low-income areas: 0·23 log10 viral copies + 1). The correlation between the mean sewage viral load (log10 viral copies + 1) and the log10 clinical cases increased with time (r = 0·90 in July-December, 2021 and r=0·59 in July-December, 2020). Before major waves of infection, viral load quantity in sewage samples increased 1-2 weeks before the clinical cases.

INTERPRETATION

This study demonstrates the utility and importance of environmental surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 in a lower-middle-income country. We show that environmental surveillance provides an early warning of increases in transmission and reveals evidence of persistent circulation in poorer areas where access to clinical testing is limited.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Association of Circulating Biomarkers with Growth and Cognitive Development in Rural Tanzania: A Secondary Analysis of the Early Life Interventions in Childhood Growth and Development In Tanzania (ELICIT) Study

BACKGROUND

Children in low-resource areas experience nutritional and infection challenges delaying growth and cognitive development.

OBJECTIVE

Our goal was to assess for associations of circulating biomarkers related to nutrition and inflammation, with growth and developmental outcomes among children in a birth cohort in a resource-poor area in rural Tanzania.

METHODS

We assessed data from 1120 children participating in the Early Life Interventions for Childhood Growth and Development in Tanzania (ELICIT) study. At age 12 and 18 months participants had blood tests performed for hemoglobin, collagen-X, insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1), fibroblast growth-factor-21 (FGF21), thyroglobulin, ferritin, soluble transferrin receptor (sTFR), retinol binding protein-4 (RBP4), C-reactive protein (CRP), alpha(1)-acid glycoprotein (AGP), and CD14. At 18 months, participants had anthropometry measured and converted to z-scores for length-for-age (LAZ), weight-for-age (WAZ) and head-circumference-for-age (HCZ) and had the Malawi Developmental Assessment Tool (MDAT) performed to evaluate cognitive development. We performed linear regression assessing biomarkers (predictor variable) on anthropometry and MDAT scores (dependent variables), adjusted for sex, socioeconomic status and baseline values.

RESULTS

There was a high degree of intra-factor correlation between 12 and 18 months, and inter-factor correlation between biomarkers. IGF-1 and sTFR were positively- and FGF21 and ferritin negatively-associated with LAZ 18 months, while collagen-X and CD14 were additionally associated with recent linear growth. Only markers predominantly related to nutrition were consistently linked with WAZ at 18 months, while RBP4 and AGP were additionally associated with recent change in WAZ. IGF-1 was positively- and thyroglobulin, RBP4 and CD14 negatively linked to MDAT scores. IGF-1 was the only factor linked to both 18-month LAZ and MDAT.

CONCLUSIONS

Individual biomarkers were consistently linked to growth and cognitive outcomes, providing support for relationships between nutrition and inflammation in early child development. Further research is needed to assess overlaps in how biomarker-related processes interact with both growth and learning.

Sex Differences in Early Childhood Growth in a Resource-Limited Setting: A Secondary Analysis of the Early Life Interventions in Childhood Growth and Development in Tanzania (ELICIT) Study

BACKGROUND

In population-based growth surveys in sub-Saharan Africa, boys have higher rates of growth failure than girls.

OBJECTIVES

Our goal was to assess for the presence, timing, and potential etiology of sex-based differences in length-for-age z score (LAZ), weight-for-age z score (WAZ), and head circumference-for-age z score (HCZ) in a birth cohort in rural Tanzania.

METHODS

We performed a secondary analysis of randomized controlled trial data on 1084 children followed from age <2 wk to 18 mo, assessing anthropometry (measured every 3 mo), illness (hospitalization and monthly maternal report of symptoms), and feeding [monthly maternal report of exclusive breastfeeding (EBF) and complementary solids and liquids (CSLs)]. We used linear regression to assess sex differences in LAZ, WAZ, and HCZ over time.

RESULTS

Although male and female infants had similar anthropometry measures at study entry, males exhibited poorer growth through 6 mo (e.g., 3-mo mean LAZ: males -0.94, females -0.74, P < 0.01; 3-mo mean WAZ: males -0.63, females -0.48, P < 0.05), without significant worsening from 6 to 18 mo. Males had lower HCZ only at 9 mo. In evaluating possible etiologies, mediation analysis failed to identify illness or hospitalization as mediators of poorer growth among males, although at age 3 mo, males with recently reported illness exhibited greater decline in WAZ than females with illness (ΔWAZ: males -0.24, females 0.03, heterogeneity test P = 0.01). Differences in EBF and introduction of CSL did not explain the sex-based growth outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

In longitudinal analysis, males exhibited more severe growth failure by 3 mo than girls and did not exhibit catchup growth between 6 and 18 mo. Reported symptoms of illness and early introduction of CSL did not appear to be mediators of these sex-based differences, although likely not all sickness was captured by monthly maternal report. Given the early nature of these deficits, LAZ and WAZ measures at 6 mo may be good outcomes for intervention studies targeting improvements in early childhood growth and thriving.

Effect of scheduled antimicrobial and nicotinamide treatment on linear growth in children in rural Tanzania: A factorial randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Stunting among children in low-resource settings is associated with enteric pathogen carriage and micronutrient deficiencies. Our goal was to test whether administration of scheduled antimicrobials and daily nicotinamide improved linear growth in a region with a high prevalence of stunting and enteric pathogen carriage.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We performed a randomized, 2 × 2 factorial, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial in the area around Haydom, Tanzania. Mother-child dyads were enrolled by age 14 days and followed with monthly home visits and every 3-month anthropometry assessments through 18 months. Those randomized to the antimicrobial arm received 2 medications (versus corresponding placebos): azithromycin (single dose of 20 mg/kg) at months 6, 9, 12, and 15 and nitazoxanide (3-day course of 100 mg twice daily) at months 12 and 15. Those randomized to nicotinamide arm received daily nicotinamide to the mother (250 mg pills months 0 to 6) and to the child (100 mg sachets months 6 to 18). Primary outcome was length-for-age z-score (LAZ) at 18 months in the modified intention-to-treat group. Between September 5, 2017 and August 31, 2018, 1,188 children were randomized, of whom 1,084 (n = 277 placebo/placebo, 273 antimicrobial/placebo, 274 placebo/nicotinamide, and 260 antimicrobial/nicotinamide) were included in the modified intention-to-treat analysis. The study was suspended for a 3-month period by the Tanzanian National Institute for Medical Research (NIMR) because of concerns related to the timing of laboratory testing and the total number of serious adverse events (SAEs); this resulted in some participants receiving their final study assessment late. There was a high prevalence of stunting overall (533/1,084, 49.2%). Mean 18-month LAZ did not differ between groups for either intervention (mean LAZ with 95% confidence interval [CI]: antimicrobial: -2.05 CI -2.13, -1.96, placebo: -2.05 CI -2.14, -1.97; mean difference: 0.01 CI -0.13, 0.11, p = 0.91; nicotinamide: -2.06 CI -2.13, -1.95, placebo: -2.04 CI -2.14, -1.98, mean difference 0.03 CI -0.15, 0.09, p = 0.66). There was no difference in LAZ for either intervention after adjusting for possible confounders (baseline LAZ, age in days at 18-month measurement, ward, hospital birth, birth month, years of maternal education, socioeconomic status (SES) quartile category, sex, whether the mother was a member of the Datoga tribe, and mother's height). Adverse events (AEs) and SAEs were overall similar between treatment groups for both the nicotinamide and antimicrobial interventions. Key limitations include the absence of laboratory measures of pathogen carriage and nicotinamide metabolism to provide context for the negative findings.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we observed that neither scheduled administration of azithromycin and nitazoxanide nor daily provision of nicotinamide was associated with improved growth in this resource-poor setting with a high force of enteric infections. Further research remains critical to identify interventions toward improved early childhood growth in challenging conditions.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03268902.

Baseline Characteristics of Study Participants in the Early Life Interventions for Childhood Growth and Development in Tanzania (ELICIT) Trial

Recurrent enteric infections and micronutrient deficiencies, including deficiencies in the tryptophan–kynurenine–niacin pathway, have been associated with environmental enteric dysfunction, potentially contributing to poor child growth and development. We are conducting a randomized, placebo-controlled, 2 × 2 factorial interventional trial in a rural population in Haydom, Tanzania, to determine the effect of 1) antimicrobials (azithromycin and nitazoxanide) and/or 2) nicotinamide, a niacin vitamer, on attained length at 18 months. Mother/infant dyads were enrolled within 14 days of the infant’s birth from September 2017 to September 2018, with the follow-up to be completed in February 2020. Here, we describe the baseline characteristics of the study cohort, risk factors for low enrollment weight, and neonatal adverse events (AEs). Risk factors for a low enrollment weight included being a firstborn child (−0.54 difference in weight-for-age z-score [WAZ] versus other children, 95% CI: −0.71, −0.37), lower socioeconomic status (−0.28, 95% CI: −0.43, −0.12 difference in WAZ), and birth during the preharvest season (November to March) (−0.22, 95% CI: −0.33, −0.11 difference in WAZ). The most common neonatal serious AEs were respiratory tract infections and neonatal sepsis (2.2 and 1.4 events per 100 child-months, respectively). The study cohort represents a high-risk population for whom interventions to improve child growth and development are urgently needed. Further analyses are needed to understand the persistent impacts of seasonal malnutrition and the interactions between seasonality, socioeconomic status, and the study interventions.

Global avian influenza surveillance in wild birds: a strategy to capture viral diversity

Wild birds play a major role in the evolution, maintenance, and spread of avian influenza viruses. However, surveillance for these viruses in wild birds is sporadic, geographically biased, and often limited to the last outbreak virus. To identify opportunities to optimize wild bird surveillance for understanding viral diversity, we reviewed responses to a World Organisation for Animal Health–administered survey, government reports to this organization, articles on Web of Knowledge, and the Influenza Research Database. At least 119 countries conducted avian influenza virus surveillance in wild birds during 2008–2013, but coordination and standardization was lacking among surveillance efforts, and most focused on limited subsets of influenza viruses. Given high financial and public health burdens of recent avian influenza outbreaks, we call for sustained, cost-effective investments in locations with high avian influenza diversity in wild birds and efforts to promote standardized sampling, testing, and reporting methods, including full-genome sequencing and sharing of isolates with the scientific community.