Military exposures and Gulf War illness in veterans with and without posttraumatic stress disorder

Gulf War illness (GWI) is a chronic multisymptom disorder of unknown etiology that is believed to be caused by neurotoxicant exposure experienced during deployment to the Gulf War. Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) covaries with GWI and is believed to play a role in GWI symptoms. The present study examined the association between self-reported military exposures and GWI, stratified by PTSD status, in veterans from the Gulf War Era Cohort and Biorepository who were deployed to the Persian Gulf during the war. Participants self-reported current GWI and PTSD symptoms as well as military exposures (e.g., pyridostigmine [PB] pills, pesticides/insecticides, combat, chemical attacks, and oil well fires) experienced during the Gulf War. Deployed veterans' (N = 921) GWI status was ascertained using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention definition. Individuals who met the GWI criteria were stratified by PTSD status, yielding three groups: GWI-, GWI+/PTSD-, and GWI+/PTSD+. Multivariable logistic regression, adjusted for covariates, was used to examine associations between GWI/PTSD groups and military exposures. Apart from insect bait use, the GWI+/PTSD+ group had higher odds of reporting military exposures than the GWI+/PTSD- group, adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 2.15, 95% CI [1.30, 3.56]-aOR = 6.91, 95% CI [3.39, 14.08]. Except for PB pills, the GWI+/PTSD- group had a higher likelihood of reporting military exposures than the GWI- group, aOR = 2.03, 95% CI [1.26, 3.26]-aOR = 4.01, 95% CI [1.57, 10.25]. These findings are consistent with roles for both PTSD and military exposures in the etiology of GWI.

Longitudinal assessment of colonoscopy adverse events in the prospective Cooperative Studies Program no. 380 colorectal cancer screening and surveillance cohort

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Data are limited regarding colonoscopy risk during long-term, programmatic colorectal cancer screening and follow-up. We aimed to describe adverse events during follow-up in a colonoscopy screening program after the baseline examination and examine factors associated with increased risk.

METHODS

Cooperative Studies Program no. 380 includes 3121 asymptomatic veterans aged 50 to 75 years who underwent screening colonoscopy between 1994 and 1997. Periprocedure adverse events requiring significant intervention were defined as major events (other events were minor) and were tracked during follow-up for at least 10 years. Multivariable odds ratios (ORs) were calculated for factors associated with risk of follow-up adverse events.

RESULTS

Of 3727 follow-up examinations in 1983 participants, adverse events occurred in 105 examinations (2.8%) in 93 individuals, including 22 major and 87 minor events (examinations may have had >1 event). Incidence of major events (per 1000 examinations) remained relatively stable over time, with 6.1 events at examination 2, 4.8 at examination 3, and 7.2 at examination 4. Examinations with major events included 1 perforation, 3 GI bleeds requiring intervention, and 17 cardiopulmonary events. History of prior colonoscopic adverse events was associated with increased risk of events (major or minor) during follow-up (OR, 2.7; 95% confidence interval, 1.6-4.6).

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term programmatic screening and surveillance was safe, as major events were rare during follow-up. However, serious cardiopulmonary events were the most common major events. These results highlight the need for detailed assessments of comorbid conditions during routine clinical practice, which could help inform individual decisions regarding the utility of ongoing colonoscopy follow-up.

Ten or More Cumulative Lifetime Adenomas Are Associated with Increased Risk for Advanced Neoplasia and Colorectal Cancer

BACKGROUND

Colorectal cancer (CRC) screening guidelines recommend frequent colonoscopies and consideration of genetic testing in individuals with ≥10 cumulative adenomas. However, it is unclear how these guidelines apply to routine practice.

AIMS

We estimated the proportion of participants found to have ≥10 cumulative adenomas in a screening population and described their outcomes of advanced neoplasia (AN), CRC, and extra-colonic malignancy.

METHODS

We performed a secondary analysis of VA CSP#380, which includes 3121 veterans aged 50-75 who were followed up to 10 years after screening colonoscopy. We calculated the cumulative risk of ≥10 cumulative adenomas by Kaplan-Meier method. We compared baseline risk factors in those with and without ≥10 cumulative adenomas as well as the risk for AN (adenoma ≥1 cm, villous adenoma or high-grade dysplasia, or CRC) and extra-colonic malignancy by multivariate logistic regression.

RESULTS

The cumulative risk of ≥10 cumulative adenomas over 10.5 years was 6.51% (95% CI 4.38%-9.62%). Age 60-69 or 70-75 at baseline colonoscopy was the only factors associated with the finding of ≥10 cumulative adenomas. Compared to those with 0-9 cumulative adenomas, participants with ≥10 cumulative adenomas were more likely to have had AN (OR 17.03; 95% CI 9.41-30.84), including CRC (OR 7.00; 95% CI 2.84-17.28), but not extra-colonic malignancies.

CONCLUSIONS

Approximately 6.5% of participants in this screening population were found to have ≥10 cumulative adenomas over 10.5 years, which was uncommon before age 60. These participants were found to have AN and CRC significantly more often compared to those with lower cumulative adenomas.

Screening Colonoscopy Findings Are Associated With Noncolorectal Cancer Mortality

INTRODUCTION

Controversy exists regarding the impact of various risk factors on noncolorectal cancer (CRC) mortality in healthy screening populations. We examined the impact of known CRC risk factors, including baseline colonoscopy findings, on non-CRC mortality in a screening population.

METHODS

Cooperative Studies Program (CSP) #380 is comprised of 3,121 veterans aged 50-75 years who underwent screening colonoscopy from 1994 to 97 and were then followed for at least 10 years or until death. Hazard ratios (HRs) for risk factors on non-CRC mortality were estimated by multivariate Cox proportional hazards.

RESULTS

Current smoking (HR 2.12, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.78-2.52, compared with nonsmokers) and physical activity (HR 0.89, 95% CI 0.84-0.93) were the modifiable factors most associated with non-CRC mortality in CSP#380. In addition, compared with no neoplasia at baseline colonoscopy, non-CRC mortality was higher in participants with ≥3 small adenomas (HR 1.43, 95% CI 1.06-1.94), advanced adenomas (HR 1.32, 95% CI 0.99-1.75), and CRC (HR 2.95, 95% CI 0.98-8.85). Those with 1-2 small adenomas were not at increased risk for non-CRC mortality (HR 1.15, 95% CI 0.94-1.4).

DISCUSSION

In a CRC screening population, known modifiable risk factors were significantly associated with 10-year non-CRC mortality. Furthermore, those who died from non-CRC causes within 10 years were more likely to have had high-risk findings at baseline colonoscopy. These results suggest that advanced colonoscopy findings may be a risk marker of poor health outcomes. Integrated efforts are needed to motivate healthy lifestyle changes during CRC screening, particularly in those with high-risk colonoscopy findings and unaddressed risk factors.

The Interaction of Vitamin D and Corticosteroids: A Mortality Analysis of 26,508 Veterans Who Tested Positive for SARS-CoV-2

This data-based cohort consisted of 26,508 (7%) United States veterans out of the 399,290 who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 from 1 March to 10 September 2020. We aimed to assess the interaction of post-index vitamin D (Vit D) and corticosteroid (CRT) use on 30-day mortality among hospitalized and non-hospitalized patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Combination Vit D and CRT drug use was assessed according to four multinomial pairs (-|+, -|-, +|+, +|-). Respective categorical effects were computed on a log-binomial scale as adjusted relative risk (aRR). Approximately 6% of veterans who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 died within 30 days of their index date. Among hospitalized patients, a significantly decreased aRR was observed for the use of Vit D in the absence of CRTs relative to patients who received CRTs but not Vit D (aRR = 0.30; multiplicity corrected, p = 0.0004). Among patients receiving systemically administered CRTs (e.g., dexamethasone), the use of Vit D was associated with fewer deaths in hospitalized patients (aRR = 0.51) compared with non-hospitalized patients (aRR = 2.5) (P-for-Interaction = 0.0071). Evaluating the effect of modification of these compounds in the context of hospitalization may aid in the management of COVID-19 and provide a better understanding of the pathophysiological mechanisms underlying this and future infectious disease outbreaks.

Characterizing chronological accumulation of comorbidities in healthy veterans: a computational approach

Understanding patient accumulation of comorbidities can facilitate healthcare strategy and personalized preventative care. We applied a directed network graph to electronic health record (EHR) data and characterized comorbidities in a cohort of healthy veterans undergoing screening colonoscopy. The Veterans Affairs Cooperative Studies Program #380 was a prospective longitudinal study of screening and surveillance colonoscopy. We identified initial instances of three-digit ICD-9 diagnoses for participants with at least 5 years of linked EHR history (October 1999 to December 2015). For diagnoses affecting at least 10% of patients, we calculated pairwise chronological relative risk (RR). iGraph was used to produce directed graphs of comorbidities with RR > 1, as well as summary statistics, key diseases, and communities. A directed graph based on 2210 patients visualized longitudinal development of comorbidities. Top hub (preceding) diseases included ischemic heart disease, inflammatory and toxic neuropathy, and diabetes. Top authority (subsequent) diagnoses were acute kidney failure and hypertensive chronic kidney failure. Four communities of correlated comorbidities were identified. Close analysis of top hub and authority diagnoses demonstrated known relationships, correlated sequelae, and novel hypotheses. Directed network graphs portray chronologic comorbidity relationships. We identified relationships between comorbid diagnoses in this aging veteran cohort. This may direct healthcare prioritization and personalized care.

Development of a Multi-Study Repository to Support Research on Veteran Health: The VA Cooperative Studies Program Epidemiology Center-Durham (CSPEC-Durham) Data and Specimen Repository

Federal agencies, including the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA), have prioritized improved access to scientific data and results collected through federally funded research. Our VA Cooperative Studies Program Epidemiology Center in Durham, North Carolina (CSPEC-Durham) assembled a repository of data and specimens collected through multiple studies on Veteran health issues to facilitate future research in these areas. We developed a single protocol, request process that includes scientific and ethical review of all applications, and a database architecture using metadata (common variable descriptors) to securely store and share data across diverse studies. In addition, we created a mechanism to allow data and specimens collected through older studies in which re-use was not addressed in the study protocol or consent forms to be shared if the future research is within the scope of the original consent. Our CSPEC-Durham Data and Specimen Repository currently includes research data, genomic data, and study specimens (e.g., DNA, blood) for three content areas: colorectal cancer, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, and Gulf War research. The linking of the study specimens and research data can support additional genetic analyses and related research to improve Veterans' health.

Genetic Colorectal Cancer and Adenoma Risk Variants Are Associated with Increasing Cumulative Adenoma Counts

BACKGROUND

The genetic basis for most individuals with high cumulative lifetime colonic adenomas is unknown. We investigated associations between known colorectal cancer-risk single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) and increasing cumulative adenoma counts.

METHODS

The Cooperative Studies Program #380 screening colonoscopy cohort includes 612 selected participants age 50 to 75 with genotyped blood samples and 10 years of clinical follow-up. We evaluated 41 published "colorectal cancer-risk SNPs" for associations with individual cumulative adenoma counts or having ≥10 cumulative adenomas. SNPs were analyzed singly or combined in a polygenic risk score (PRS). The PRS was constructed from eight published SNPs associated with multiple adenomas, termed "adenoma-risk SNPs."

RESULTS

Four colorectal cancer-risk SNPs were associated with increasing cumulative adenoma counts (P < 0.05): rs12241008 (gene: VTI1A), rs2423279 (BMP2/HAO1), rs3184504 (SH2B3), and rs961253 (FERMT1/BMP2), with risk allele risk ratios of 1.31, 1.29, 1.24, and 1.23, respectively. Three colorectal cancer-risk SNPs were associated with ≥10 cumulative adenomas (P < 0.05), with risk allele odds ratios of 2.09 (rs3184504), 2.30 (rs961253), and 1.94 (rs3217901). A weighted PRS comprised of adenoma-risk SNPs was associated with higher cumulative adenomas (weighted rate ratio = 1.57; P = 0.03).

CONCLUSIONS

In this mostly male veteran colorectal cancer screening cohort, several known colorectal cancer-risk SNPs were associated with increasing cumulative adenoma counts and the finding of ≥10 cumulative adenomas. In addition, an increasing burden of adenoma-risk SNPs, measured by a weighted PRS, was associated with higher cumulative adenomas.

IMPACT

Future work will seek to validate these findings in different populations and then augment current colorectal cancer risk prediction tools with precancerous, adenoma genetic data.

Baseline Colonoscopy Findings Associated With 10-Year Outcomes in a Screening Cohort Undergoing Colonoscopy Surveillance

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Few studies have evaluated long-term outcomes of ongoing colonoscopic screening and surveillance in a screening population. We aimed to determine the 10-year risk for advanced neoplasia (defined as adenomas ≥10mm, adenomas with villous histology or high-grade dysplasia, or colorectal cancer [CRC]) and assessed whether baseline colonoscopy findings were associated with long-term outcomes.

METHODS

We collected data from the Department of Veterans Affairs Cooperative Studies Program Study on 3121 asymptomatic veterans (50-75 years old) who underwent a screening colonoscopy from 1994 through 1997 at 13 medical centers and were then followed for 10 years or until death. We included 1915 subjects with at least 1 surveillance colonoscopy and estimated cumulative incidence of advanced neoplasia by Kaplan-Meier curves. We then fit a longitudinal joint model to estimate risk of advanced neoplasia at each subsequent examination after baseline, adjusting for multiple colonoscopies within individuals.

RESULTS

Through 10 years of follow-up, there were 146 individuals among all baseline colonoscopy groups found to have at least 1 incident advanced neoplasia. The cumulative 10-year incidence of advanced neoplasia was highest among those with baseline CRC (43.7%; 95% CI 13.0%-74.4%), followed by those with baseline advanced adenoma (AA) (21.9%; 95% CI 15.7-28.1). The cumulative 10-year incidence of advanced neoplasia was 6.3% (95% CI 4.1%-8.5%) and 4.1% (95% CI 2.7%-5.4%) for baseline 1 to 2 small adenomas (<1cm, and without villous histology or high-grade dysplasia) and no neoplasia, respectively (log-rank P = .10). After adjusting for prior surveillance, the risk of advanced neoplasia at each subsequent examination was not significantly increased in veterans with 1 or 2 small adenomas at baseline (odds ratio 0.96; 95% CI 0.67-1.41) compared with veterans with no baseline neoplasia.

CONCLUSIONS

Baseline screening colonoscopy findings associate with advanced neoplasia within 10 years. Individuals with only 1 or 2 small adenomas at baseline have a low risk of advanced neoplasia over 10 years. Alternative surveillance strategies, could be considered for these individuals.

Racial Differences in Treatment and Survival among Veterans and Non-Veterans with Stage I NSCLC: An Evaluation of Veterans Affairs and SEER-Medicare Populations

BACKGROUND

Surgery is the preferred treatment for stage I non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), with radiation reserved for those not receiving surgery. Previous studies have shown lower rates of surgery among Blacks with stage I NSCLC than among Whites.

METHODS

Black and White men ages ≥65 years with stage I NSCLC diagnosed between 2001 and 2009 were identified in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare database and Veterans Affairs (VA) cancer registry. Logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine associations between race, treatment, and survival.

RESULTS

Among the patients in the VA (n = 7,895) and SEER (n = 8,744), the proportion of Blacks was 13% and 7%, respectively. Overall, 16.2% of SEER patients (15.4% of Whites, 26.0% of Blacks) and 24.5% of VA patients received no treatment (23.4% of Whites, 31.4% of Blacks). In both cohorts, Blacks were less likely to receive any treatment compared with Whites [ORadj = 0.57; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.47-0.69 for SEER-Medicare; ORadj = 0.68; 95% CI, 0.58-0.79 for VA]. Among treated patients, Blacks were less likely than Whites to receive surgery only (ORadj = 0.57; 95% CI, 0.47-0.70 for SEER-Medicare; ORadj = 0.73; 95% CI, 0.62-0.86 for VA), but more likely to receive chemotherapy only and radiation only. There were no racial differences in survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Among VA and SEER-Medicare patients, Blacks were less likely to get surgical treatment. Blacks and Whites had similar survival outcomes when accounting for treatment.

IMPACT

This supports the hypothesis that equal treatment correlates with equal outcomes and emphasizes the need to understand multilevel predictors of lung cancer treatment disparities.

Advanced neoplasia in Veterans at screening colonoscopy using the National Cancer Institute Risk Assessment Tool

BACKGROUND

Adapting screening strategy to colorectal cancer (CRC) risk may improve efficiency for all stakeholders however limited tools for such risk stratification exist. Colorectal cancers usually evolve from advanced neoplasms that are present for years. We applied the National Cancer Institute (NCI) CRC Risk Assessment Tool, which calculates future risk of CRC, to determine whether it could be used to predict current advanced neoplasia (AN) in a veteran cohort undergoing a baseline screening colonoscopy.

METHODS

This was a prospective assessment of the relationship between future CRC risk predicted by the NCI tool, and the presence of AN at screening colonoscopy. Family, medical, dietary and physical activity histories were collected at the time of screening colonoscopy and used to calculate absolute CRC risk at 5, 10 and 20 years. Discriminatory accuracy was assessed.

RESULTS

Of 3121 veterans undergoing screening colonoscopy, 94% had complete data available to calculate risk (N = 2934, median age 63 years, 100% men, and 15% minorities). Prevalence of AN at baseline screening colonoscopy was 11 % (N = 313). For tertiles of estimated absolute CRC risk at 5 years, AN prevalences were 6.54% (95% CI, 4.99, 8.09), 11.26% (95% CI, 9.28-13.24), and 14.21% (95% CI, 12.02-16.40). For tertiles of estimated risk at 10 years, the prevalences were 6.34% (95% CI, 4.81-7.87), 11.25% (95% CI, 9.27-13.23), and 14.42% (95% CI, 12.22-16.62). For tertiles of estimated absolute CRC risk at 20 years, current AN prevalences were 7.54% (95% CI, 5.75-9.33), 10.53% (95% CI, 8.45-12.61), and 12.44% (95% CI, 10.2-14.68). The area under the curve for predicting current AN was 0.60 (95% CI; 0.57-0.63, p < 0.0001) at 5 years, 0.60 (95% CI, 0.57-0.63, p < 0.0001) at 10 years and 0.58 (95% CI, 0.54-0.61, p < 0.0001) at 20 years.

CONCLUSION

The NCI tool had modest discriminatory function for estimating the presence of current advanced neoplasia in veterans undergoing a first screening colonoscopy. These findings are comparable to other clinically utilized cancer risk prediction models and may be used to inform the benefit-risk assessment of screening, particularly for patients with competing comorbidities and lower risk, for whom a non-invasive screening approach is preferred.

Characterization of temporal relationships of comorbidities developed following cancer diagnoses in veterans

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Background: Understanding patient trajectories and common sequences of comorbidity accrual among those newly diagnosed with cancer is critical for precision approaches to care and prevention. The Veterans Affairs (VA) Cooperative Studies Program (CSP) #380 cohort includes 3,121 healthy asymptomatic veterans who underwent screening colonoscopy and were followed for at least ten years. The current analysis leverages computational approaches to characterize the temporal relationships of diagnoses in CSP #380 participants following diagnosis of colorectal or other cancers. Methods: Patients enrolled in CSP #380 with at least 5 years of linked electronic health record data from the VA Corporate Data Warehouse (October 1999-December 2015) were included. Cancer diagnoses and their most common subsequent new diagnoses were identified per patient by the first instance of each three-digit ICD-9 diagnosis affecting at least 50 patients. Pairwise chronological relative risks (RR) between subsequent diagnoses were represented as a directed network graph, which maps the probability of developing a diagnosis following a prior diagnosis. Results: A total of 2,210 patients were included. The most common cancer diagnoses were prostate (436), thoracic (169), bladder (120), colon (72), and kidney cancers (65). Most first diagnoses following a cancer diagnosis were related to progressive cancer or acute/subacute treatment toxicity. For prostate cancer, comorbidities with greatest RR were carcinoma in situ (RR 6.85), unspecified (NOS) metastases (2.75), and urethral stricture (2.53). For lung cancer, they were metastases of respiratory and digestive sites (12.24), lymph nodes (6.47), and NOS (5.68), pneumothorax and air leak (4.16), and convalescence and palliative care (3.07). In bladder cancer, they were carcinoma in situ (9.00), cystitis (6.78), kidney or other urinary cancer (6.19), attention to artificial openings (3.40), and urethral stricture (2.78). These and other results were visualized with network graphs. Conclusions: Computational techniques can identify and visualize future health concerns following cancer diagnoses. In this cohort of initially healthy and asymptomatic veterans on a prospective screening colonoscopy study, most subsequent diagnoses were related to cancer or toxicities of therapy, as might be expected in an aging cohort. Future work may focus on streamlining in-clinic identification of potential high likelihood comorbidities.

Validation of the NCI Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment Tool for baseline advanced neoplasia in a veterans cohort

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Background: Tailoring screening strategy to colorectal cancer (CRC) risk may improve efficiency for all stakeholders. We applied the National Cancer Institute (NCI) CRC Risk Assessment Tool, which calculates 5-10-year, and 20-year absolute risk of colorectal cancer to determine whether it could be used to predict baseline risk of colorectal cancer precursors in a Veterans cohort undergoing first screening colonoscopy. Methods: This was a prospective evaluation of whether the NCI CRC Risk Assessment Tool which offers an absolute risk over time, could be used to estimate baseline cancerous precursors (advanced neoplasia) in Veterans undergoing first screening colonoscopy. Family, medical, dietary and physical activity histories were collected at the time of screening colonoscopy and used to calculate absolute 5, 10, and 20-year CRC risk, and to compare estimated CRC risk to observed AN. Sensitivity analyses were performed. Results: Of 3,121 Veterans undergoing screening colonoscopy, 94% had complete data available to calculate risk (N = 2,934, median age 63 years, 100% men, and 15% minorities). 11% (N = 313) were diagnosed with AN on baseline screening colonoscopy. The area under the curve for predicting AN was 0.60 (95% CI; 0.57-0.63, p < 0.0001) at 5 years, 0.60 (95% CI, 0.57-0.63, p < 0.0001) at 10 years and 0.58 (95% CI, 0.54-0.61, p < 0.0001) at 20 years. At 5 years, we calculated the sensitivity (0.18, 95% CI; 0.14-0.22), specificity (0.91, 95% CI; 0.90-0.92) positive predictive value (0.19, 95% CI; 0.15-0.24) and negative predictive value (0.90, 95% CI; 0.89-0.91) considering the top 10th percentile of risk tool scores as a positive result. Conclusions: The NCI CRC Risk Assessment Tool had modest discriminatory function for predicting AN risk at 5, 10 and 20 years. The Tool’s specificity and negative predictive value were quite good, highlighting its usefulness in risk prediction. This tool may beused to inform the benefit-risk assessment of screening colonoscopy for patients with competing comorbidities.

Validation of the NCI colorectal cancer risk assessment tool in the CSP 380 veterans cohort

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Background: Refining screening to colorectal cancer (CRC) risk may promote screening effectiveness. We applied the National Cancer Institute (NCI) CRC Risk Assessment Tool to estimate 5- and 10-year CRC risk in an average-risk Veterans cohort undergoing screening colonoscopy with follow-up. Methods: This was a prospective evaluation of predicted to actual risk of CRC using the NCI CRC Risk Assessment Tool in male Veterans undergoing screening colonoscopy with a median follow-up of 10 years.Family, medical, dietary and physical activity histories were collected at enrollment and used to calculate absolute 5- and 10-year CRC risk, and to compare tertiles of expected to observed CRC risk. Sensitivity analyses were performed. Results: For 2,934 male Veterans with complete data (average age 62.4 years, 15% minorities), 1.3% (N=30) and 1.7% (N=50) were diagnosed with CRC within 5 and 10 years of survey completion. The area under the curve for predicting CRC was 0.69 (95% CI; 0.61-0.78) at 5 years and 0.67 (95% CI, 0.59-0.75) at 10 years. We calculated the sensitivity (0.60, 95% CI; 0.45-0.73), specificity (0.67, 95% CI; 0.65-0.69) positive predictive value (0.031, 95% CI; 0.02-0.04) and negative predictive value (0.99, 95% CI; 0.98-0.99). Conclusions: The NCI CRC Risk Assessment Tool was well-calibrated at 5 years and overestimated CRC risk at 10 years, had modest discriminatory function, and a high NPV in a cohort of ethnically diverse male Veterans. This tool reliably excludes 10-year CRC in low-scoring individuals and may inform patient-provider decision making when the benefit of screening is uncertain. [Table: see text]