The humble estimate: Humility predicts higher self-assessment accuracy

Humility is thought to be associated with greater accuracy in self-assessment. However, clear evidence is lacking. Two studies tested this central proposition. In Study 1 (N = 258), participants completed a task on logical reasoning before estimating both their raw and relative performance. Study 2 (N = 214) was aimed at replicating Study 1 with a task on English fluency. Results from both studies were consistent. There was evidence of overestimation bias across each sample in which participants' estimated performance was higher than their actual performance. More importantly, humility was associated with less overestimation bias, such that the difference in estimated and actual performance was smaller or non-existent among those higher in humility. We also replicated the Dunning-Kruger effect in which participants of lower ability in these skills (i.e., lower actual scores) were most likely to overestimate their performance. Further analyses found that the negative relationship between humility and overestimation bias was not moderated by actual performances. However, the same analyses revealed that the Dunning-Kruger effect was also not moderated by humility. Hence, there is strong replicable evidence that humility is associated with less overestimation bias, supporting the view that greater accuracy in self-assessment is an attribute of humility, and that this relationship is independent of actual ability, but humility does not affect the robust Dunning-Kruger effect.

Assessment of SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence by Community Survey and Residual Specimens, Denver, Colorado, July-August 2020

OBJECTIVES

The number of SARS-CoV-2 infections is underestimated in surveillance data. Various approaches to assess the seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 have different resource requirements and generalizability. We estimated the seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Denver County, Colorado, via a cluster-sampled community survey.

METHODS

We estimated the overall seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 via a community seroprevalence survey in Denver County in July 2020, described patterns associated with seroprevalence, and compared results with cumulative COVID-19 incidence as reported to the health department during the same period. In addition, we compared seroprevalence as assessed with a temporally and geographically concordant convenience sample of residual clinical specimens from a commercial laboratory.

RESULTS

Based on 404 specimens collected through the community survey, 8.0% (95% CI, 3.9%-15.7%) of Denver County residents had antibodies to SARS-CoV-2, an infection rate of about 7 times that of the 1.1% cumulative reported COVID-19 incidence during this period. The estimated infection-to-reported case ratio was highest among children (34.7; 95% CI, 11.1-91.2) and males (10.8; 95% CI, 5.7-19.3). Seroprevalence was highest among males of Black race or Hispanic ethnicity and was associated with previous COVID-19-compatible illness, a previous positive SARS-CoV-2 test result, and close contact with someone who had confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. Testing of 1598 residual clinical specimens yielded a seroprevalence of 6.8% (95% CI, 5.0%-9.2%); the difference between the 2 estimates was 1.2 percentage points (95% CI, -3.6 to 12.2 percentage points).

CONCLUSIONS

Testing residual clinical specimens provided a similar seroprevalence estimate yet yielded limited insight into the local epidemiology of COVID-19 and might be less representative of the source population than a cluster-sampled community survey. Awareness of the limitations of various sampling strategies is necessary when interpreting findings from seroprevalence assessments.

Estimated SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence in the US as of September 2020

IMPORTANCE

Case-based surveillance of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection likely underestimates the true prevalence of infections. Large-scale seroprevalence surveys can better estimate infection across many geographic regions.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the prevalence of persons with SARS-CoV-2 antibodies using residual sera from commercial laboratories across the US and assess changes over time.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This repeated, cross-sectional study conducted across all 50 states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico used a convenience sample of residual serum specimens provided by persons of all ages that were originally submitted for routine screening or clinical management from 2 private clinical commercial laboratories. Samples were obtained during 4 collection periods: July 27 to August 13, August 10 to August 27, August 24 to September 10, and September 7 to September 24, 2020.

EXPOSURES

Infection with SARS-CoV-2.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The proportion of persons previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 as measured by the presence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 by 1 of 3 chemiluminescent immunoassays. Iterative poststratification was used to adjust seroprevalence estimates to the demographic profile and urbanicity of each jurisdiction. Seroprevalence was estimated by jurisdiction, sex, age group (0-17, 18-49, 50-64, and ≥65 years), and metropolitan/nonmetropolitan status.

RESULTS

Of 177 919 serum samples tested, 103 771 (58.3%) were from women, 26 716 (15.0%) from persons 17 years or younger, 47 513 (26.7%) from persons 65 years or older, and 26 290 (14.8%) from individuals living in nonmetropolitan areas. Jurisdiction-level seroprevalence over 4 collection periods ranged from less than 1% to 23%. In 42 of 49 jurisdictions with sufficient samples to estimate seroprevalence across all periods, fewer than 10% of people had detectable SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Seroprevalence estimates varied between sexes, across age groups, and between metropolitan/nonmetropolitan areas. Changes from period 1 to 4 were less than 7 percentage points in all jurisdictions and varied across sites.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This cross-sectional study found that as of September 2020, most persons in the US did not have serologic evidence of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection, although prevalence varied widely by jurisdiction. Biweekly nationwide testing of commercial clinical laboratory sera can play an important role in helping track the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the US.

20 Comparison of Six Frailty Screening Tools in Patients Aged 65+ with An Arm Fragility Fracture

Introduction

Frailty is associated with an increased risk of falling and fracture, but not routinely assessed in fracture clinic. Early identification and management of frailty among older people with arm fragility fracture could help avoid further falls and fractures, especially of the hip. We evaluated the feasibility of assessing frailty in a busy fracture clinic.

Methods

People aged 65+ years with an arm fracture in one acute trust were recruited. Frailty was assessed in fracture clinics using six tools: Fried Frailty Phenotype (FFP), FRAIL scale, PRISMA-7, electronic Frailty Index (e-FI), Clinical Frailty Score (CFS), and Study of Osteoporotic Fracture (SOF). The sensitivity and specificity of each tool was compared against FFP as a reference. Participants identified as frail by 2+ tools were referred for Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA).

Results

100 patients (mean age 75 years±7.2; 20 men) were recruited. Frailty prevalence was 9% (FRAIL scale), 13% (SOF), 14% (CFS > 6), 15% (FFP; e-FI > 0.25), and 25% (PRISMA-7). Men were more likely to be frail than women. Data were complete for all assessments and completion time ranged from one minute (PRISMA-7; CFS) to six minutes for the FFP which required most equipment. Comparing with FFP, the most accurate instrument for stratifying frail from non-frail was the PRISMA-7 (sensitivity = 93%, specificity = 87%) while the remaining tools had good specificity (range 93%–100%) but average sensitivity (range 40%–60%). Twenty patients were eligible for CGA. Five had recently had CGA and 11/15 referred were assessed. CGA led to 3–6 interventions per participant including medication changes, life-style advice, investigations, and onward referrals.

Conclusion

It was feasible to assess frailty in fracture clinic and to identify patients who benefitted from CGA. Frailty prevalence was 9%—25% depending on the tool used and was higher among men. PRISMA-7 could be a practical tool for routine use in fracture clinics.

Changes in SARS CoV-2 Seroprevalence Over Time in Ten Sites in the United States, March - August, 2020

Background

Monitoring of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibody prevalence can complement case reporting to inform more accurate estimates of SARS-CoV-2 infection burden, but few studies have undertaken repeated sampling over time on a broad geographic scale.

Methods

We performed serologic testing on a convenience sample of residual sera obtained from persons of all ages, at ten sites in the United States from March 23 through August 14, 2020, from routine clinical testing at commercial laboratories. We age-sex-standardized our seroprevalence rates using census population projections and adjusted for laboratory assay performance. Confidence intervals were generated with a two-stage bootstrap. We used Bayesian modeling to test whether seroprevalence changes over time were statistically significant.

Results

Seroprevalence remained below 10% at all sites except New York and Florida, where it reached 23.2% and 13.3%, respectively. Statistically significant increases in seroprevalence followed peaks in reported cases in New York, South Florida, Utah, Missouri and Louisiana. In the absence of such peaks, some significant decreases were observed over time in New York, Missouri, Utah, and Western Washington. The estimated cumulative number of infections with detectable antibody response continued to exceed reported cases in all sites.

Conclusions

Estimated seroprevalence was low in most sites, indicating that most people in the U.S. have not been infected with SARS-CoV-2 as of July 2020. The majority of infections are likely not reported. Decreases in seroprevalence may be related to changes in healthcare-seeking behavior, or evidence of waning of detectable anti-SARS CoV-2 antibody levels at the population level. Thus, seroprevalence estimates may underestimate the cumulative incidence of infection.

Effect of dietary supplementation with essential oils and a Bacillus probiotic on growth performance, diarrhoea and blood metabolites in weaned pigs

Context Dietary supplementation of essential oils or in combination with a Bacillus probiotic was investigated as an antibiotic growth promoter for weaned pigs. Aims To evaluate the effect of essential oils (i.e. thymol and carvacrol mixture) or in combination with a probiotic strain (i.e. Bacillus subtilis PB6) on the growth performance, diarrhoea incidence, ammonia emission and serological profiles of weaned pigs. Methods A total of 96 crossbred ([Yorkshire × Landrace] × Duroc) weaned pigs were randomly allotted to one of six treatments based on sex and initial bodyweight. Each group was distributed into four replicates with four pigs each according to a randomised complete block design. The treatments were: (i) positive control, basal diet supplemented with colistin 150 g/tonne and amoxicillin 200 g/tonne; (ii) negative control, basal diet without supplementation; (iii) T3, basal diet supplemented with essential oils 300 g/tonne; (iv) T4, basal diet supplemented with essential oils 600 g/tonne; (v) T5, basal diet supplemented with essential oils 1000 g/tonne; and (vi) T6, basal diet supplemented with essential oils 300 g/tonne diet and Bacillus probiotics 1000 g/tonne. Key results The piglets fed with supplements had a significantly higher average daily gain and lower incidence of diarrhoea than the piglets in the negative control (P = 0.001). Feeding the essential oils alone or in combination with probiotics significantly reduced faecal ammonia emission (P = 0.027) and blood urea nitrogen (P = 0.039), while markedly increasing the serum immunoglobulin G concentration of weaned pigs compared with the negative control treatment (P = 0.014). The difference in time of blood collection had significant effects on blood urea nitrogen and immunoglobulins (P = 0.001). However, no significant differences emerged in average daily feed intake, gain: feed ratio, feed efficiency and antibody against swine fever among the treatments. Conclusions Diet supplementation with essential oils or in combination with probiotics improved growth performance and immunity, and lowered ammonia emissions and diarrhoea incidence of weaned pigs. Implications These findings provide a basis for the application of phytogenic compounds and probiotics as antibiotic growth promoter alternatives in post-weaning diets for pigs.

HIV Policy Advancements in PEPFAR Partner countries: a review of data from 2010-2016

This paper aims to describe and analyse progress with domestic HIV-related policies in PEPFAR partner countries, utilising data collected as part of PEPFAR's routine annual program reporting from U.S. government fiscal years 2010 through 2016. 402 policies were monitored for one or more years across more than 50 countries using the PEPFAR policy tracking tool across five policy process stages: 1. Problem identification, 2. Policy development, 3. Policy endorsement, 4. Policy implementation, and 5. Policy evaluation. This included 219 policies that were adopted and implemented by partner governments, many in Africa. Policies were tracked across a wide variety of subject matter areas, with HIV Testing and Treatment being the most common. Our review also illustrates challenges with policy reform using varied, national examples. Challenges include the length of time (often years) it may take to reform policies, local customs that may differ from policy goals, and insufficient public funding for policy implementation. Limitations included incomplete data, variability in the amount of data provided due to partial reliance on open-ended text boxes, and data that reflect the viewpoints of submitting PEPFAR country teams.

Seroprevalence of Antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in 10 Sites in the United States, March 23-May 12, 2020

IMPORTANCE

Reported cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection likely underestimate the prevalence of infection in affected communities. Large-scale seroprevalence studies provide better estimates of the proportion of the population previously infected.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in convenience samples from several geographic sites in the US.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cross-sectional study performed serologic testing on a convenience sample of residual sera obtained from persons of all ages. The serum was collected from March 23 through May 12, 2020, for routine clinical testing by 2 commercial laboratory companies. Sites of collection were San Francisco Bay area, California; Connecticut; south Florida; Louisiana; Minneapolis-St Paul-St Cloud metro area, Minnesota; Missouri; New York City metro area, New York; Philadelphia metro area, Pennsylvania; Utah; and western Washington State.

EXPOSURES

Infection with SARS-CoV-2.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The presence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 spike protein was estimated using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, and estimates were standardized to the site populations by age and sex. Estimates were adjusted for test performance characteristics (96.0% sensitivity and 99.3% specificity). The number of infections in each site was estimated by extrapolating seroprevalence to site populations; estimated infections were compared with the number of reported coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases as of last specimen collection date.

RESULTS

Serum samples were tested from 16 025 persons, 8853 (55.2%) of whom were women; 1205 (7.5%) were 18 years or younger and 5845 (36.2%) were 65 years or older. Most specimens from each site had no evidence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. Adjusted estimates of the proportion of persons seroreactive to the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein antibodies ranged from 1.0% in the San Francisco Bay area (collected April 23-27) to 6.9% of persons in New York City (collected March 23-April 1). The estimated number of infections ranged from 6 to 24 times the number of reported cases; for 7 sites (Connecticut, Florida, Louisiana, Missouri, New York City metro area, Utah, and western Washington State), an estimated greater than 10 times more SARS-CoV-2 infections occurred than the number of reported cases.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

During March to early May 2020, most persons in 10 diverse geographic sites in the US had not been infected with SARS-CoV-2 virus. The estimated number of infections, however, was much greater than the number of reported cases in all sites. The findings may reflect the number of persons who had mild or no illness or who did not seek medical care or undergo testing but who still may have contributed to ongoing virus transmission in the population.

Seroprevalence of Antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in 10 Sites in the United States, March 23-May 12, 2020

IMPORTANCE

Reported cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection likely underestimate the prevalence of infection in affected communities. Large-scale seroprevalence studies provide better estimates of the proportion of the population previously infected.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in convenience samples from several geographic sites in the US.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cross-sectional study performed serologic testing on a convenience sample of residual sera obtained from persons of all ages. The serum was collected from March 23 through May 12, 2020, for routine clinical testing by 2 commercial laboratory companies. Sites of collection were San Francisco Bay area, California; Connecticut; south Florida; Louisiana; Minneapolis-St Paul-St Cloud metro area, Minnesota; Missouri; New York City metro area, New York; Philadelphia metro area, Pennsylvania; Utah; and western Washington State.

EXPOSURES

Infection with SARS-CoV-2.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The presence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 spike protein was estimated using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, and estimates were standardized to the site populations by age and sex. Estimates were adjusted for test performance characteristics (96.0% sensitivity and 99.3% specificity). The number of infections in each site was estimated by extrapolating seroprevalence to site populations; estimated infections were compared with the number of reported coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases as of last specimen collection date.

RESULTS

Serum samples were tested from 16 025 persons, 8853 (55.2%) of whom were women; 1205 (7.5%) were 18 years or younger and 5845 (36.2%) were 65 years or older. Most specimens from each site had no evidence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. Adjusted estimates of the proportion of persons seroreactive to the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein antibodies ranged from 1.0% in the San Francisco Bay area (collected April 23-27) to 6.9% of persons in New York City (collected March 23-April 1). The estimated number of infections ranged from 6 to 24 times the number of reported cases; for 7 sites (Connecticut, Florida, Louisiana, Missouri, New York City metro area, Utah, and western Washington State), an estimated greater than 10 times more SARS-CoV-2 infections occurred than the number of reported cases.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

During March to early May 2020, most persons in 10 diverse geographic sites in the US had not been infected with SARS-CoV-2 virus. The estimated number of infections, however, was much greater than the number of reported cases in all sites. The findings may reflect the number of persons who had mild or no illness or who did not seek medical care or undergo testing but who still may have contributed to ongoing virus transmission in the population.

Managing Singapore’s residential diversity through Ethnic Integration Policy

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to explore Singaporeans’ view to a multicultural neighbourhood, specifically, their views on the Ethnic Integration Policy (EIP), a housing policy that promotes residential desegregation, and whether this policy has engendered a positive perspective to residential diversity.

Design/methodology/approach

A grounded theory approach is used to answer the following research questions: how do Singaporeans feel about residential diversity? Does the EIP influence attitudes to residential segregation in Singapore? What do these attitudes mean for governments and policymakers around the world? The research involved focus group discussions with 27 Housing and Development Board real estate agents, in order to tap onto their vast network of clients and better understand the prevailing sentiments on the ground.

Findings

The two major considerations when Singaporeans choose a flat are its price and location. Within the confines of these two factors, however, other considerations like race, nationality and the socio-economic makeup of a neighbourhood will influence their decisions.

Social implications

These considerations can be condensed into the factors of constrained choice and voluntary segregation. By limiting the impact of voluntary segregation, the EIP can be credited with bridging the racial divide. However, with constrained choice being unaddressed by the policy, the emerging formation of a class divide is an unintended consequence.

Originality/value

Because almost all developed economies are culturally plural, understanding Singapore’s approach to residential desegregation offers insights as to how other countries may learn from the Singapore experience in managing and encouraging multiculturalism, especially since ethnic residential concentration can reduce the formation of strong social relationships.

Locating fish bomb blasts in real-time using a networked acoustic system

Results are presented of a demonstration of real-time fish blast location in Sabah, Malaysia using a networked hydroacoustic array based on the ShotSpotter gunshot location system. A total of six acoustic sensors - some fixed and others mobile - were deployed at ranges from 1 to 9 km to detect signals from controlled test blasts. This allowed the blast locations to be determined to within 60 m accuracy, and for the calculated locations to be displayed on a map on designated internet-connected computers within 10 s. A smaller three-sensor system was then installed near Semporna in Eastern Sabah that determined the locations of uncontrolled blasts set off by local fishermen. The success of these demonstrations shows that existing technology can be used to protect reefs and permit more effective management of blast fishing activity through improved detection and enforcement measures and enhanced community engagement.

Inflammatory bowel disease in patients with Hirschsprung's disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis

AIM AND OBJECTIVES

Hirschsprung-associated enterocolitis (HAEC) continues to be an important cause of morbidity in patients with Hirschsprung's disease (HSCR). HAEC can occur at any time during the course of the disease. The reported incidence of HAEC before surgery ranges from 6 to 50%, and after surgery, it ranges from 2 to 35%. HAEC and inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) have similar clinical presentation including diarrhea, hematochezia, and abdominal pain. In recent years, isolated cases of IBD have been reported in patients who had surgical treatment for HSCR. The exact pathogenesis of HAEC or IBD is not known. However, both conditions are characterized by an abnormal intestinal mucosal barrier function, which may be a common pathway. The purpose of this meta-analysis was to determine the clinical presentation and outcome in patients with HSCR who developed IBD after pull-through operation.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A systematic literature search for relevant articles was performed in four databases using the combinations of the following terms "inflammatory bowel disease", "Crohn/Crohn's disease", "ulcerative colitis", and "Hirschsprung disease/Hirschsprung's disease" for studies published between 1990 and 2017. The relevant cohorts of HSCR associated with IBD were systematically searched for clinical presentation and outcomes.

RESULTS

14 studies met defined inclusion criteria, reporting a total of 66 patients who had HSCR associated with IBD. Mean age at first operation for HSCR was 5.8 months, mean age at diagnosis of IBD was 7.7 years, and the majority of patients were male (73%). The extent of aganglionosis was total colonic aganglionosis in 41% of patients, long segment in 45%, and rectosigmoid in 14%. The majority of patients underwent a Duhamel procedure (84%) for HSCR. The distribution of IBD was Crohn's disease in 72.3% of patients, ulcerative colitis in 16.9%, and others in 10.8%. Eight articles (47 patients) reported about HAEC, and 22 patients (47%) had experienced HAEC after surgery for HSCR.

CONCLUSION

Male patients with extensive colonic aganglionosis who continue to suffer from postoperative HAEC after a Duhamel procedure are more susceptible to develop IBD. Recognition of IBD may be important in the long-term follow-up of HSCR patients who have had postoperative HAEC.

Crystal growth and piezoelectric characterization of mechanically stable ZnO nanostructure arrays

The highest piezoelectric performance of ZnO can be achieved by utilizing the piezoelectric operation along the c-axis due to its anisotropic permanent dipole moment.

Conducting a Large Public Health Data Collection Project in Uganda: Methods, Tools, and Lessons Learned

We report on the implementation experience of carrying out data collection and other activities for a public health evaluation study on whether U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) investment improved utilization of health services and health system strengthening in Uganda. The retrospective study period focused on the PEPFAR scale-up, from mid-2005 through mid-2011, a period of expansion of PEPFAR programing and health services. We visited 315 health care facilities in Uganda in 2011 and 2012 to collect routine health management information system data forms, as well as to conduct interviews with health system leaders. An earlier phase of this research project collected data from all 112 health district headquarters, reported elsewhere. This article describes the lessons learned from collecting data from health care facilities, project management, useful technologies, and mistakes. We used several new technologies to facilitate data collection, including portable document scanners, smartphones, and web-based data collection, along with older but reliable technologies such as car batteries for power, folding tables to create space, and letters of introduction from appropriate authorities to create entrée. Research in limited-resource settings requires an approach that values the skills and talents of local people, institutions and government agencies, and a tolerance for the unexpected. The development of personal relationships was key to the success of the project. We observed that capacity building activities were repaid many fold, especially in data management and technology.

Grading system for migrated lumbar disc herniation on sagittal magnetic resonance imaging: an agreement study

PURPOSE

Migrated lumbar disc herniations (LDHs) in the sagittal plane are common. Disc migration grading can be applied as a useful measurement tool in the diagnosis, treatment, and outcome evaluation of migrated LDH. No study has evaluated the reliability of migrated LDH grading. We evaluated the reliability and functionality of the current magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) grading system for migrated LDH.

METHODS

We assessed a six-level grading system developed based on sagittal MRI and graded according to the direction (rostral and caudal) and degree (low, high, and very high) of disc migration. One-hundred and one migrated LDHs treated with minimally invasive endoscopic discectomy were analyzed independently by two experienced radiologists. Intraobserver and interobserver agreements were assessed by kappa statistics.

RESULTS

The most common migrated LDH grade was grade 4 (30.94%; caudal, low-grade migration). Rostral and caudal migrations were more common in the upper and lower lumbar levels, respectively. Interobserver agreement in the grading of migrated LDH was good at both the first (kappa = 0.737) and second assessment (kappa = 0.657). The intraobserver agreement for reader 1 was very good (kappa = 0.827) and for reader 2 was good (kappa = 0.620).

CONCLUSIONS

The current grading system for migrated LDH was found to be reliable and functional with good interobserver and intraobserver agreement. It may be useful in the interpretation of disc migration patterns and outcomes of various minimally invasive surgical procedures.

Financial and environmental costs of reusable and single-use anaesthetic equipment

BACKGROUND.

An innovative approach to choosing hospital equipment is to consider the environmental costs in addition to other costs and benefits.

METHODS.

We used life cycle assessment to model the environmental and financial costs of different scenarios of replacing reusable anaesthetic equipment with single-use variants. The primary environmental costs were CO 2 emissions (in CO 2 equivalents) and water use (in litres). We compared energy source mixes between Australia, the UK/Europe, and the USA.

RESULTS.

For an Australian hospital with six operating rooms, the annual financial cost of converting from single-use equipment to reusable anaesthetic equipment would be an AUD$32 033 (£19 220), 46% decrease. In Australia, converting from single-use to reusable equipment would result in an increase of CO 2 emissions from 5095 (95% CI: 4614-5658) to 5575 kg CO 2 eq (95% CI: 5542-5608), a 480 kg CO 2 eq (9%) increase. Using the UK/European power mix, converting from single-use (5575 kg CO 2 eq) to reusable anaesthetic equipment (802 kg CO 2 eq) would result in an 84% reduction (4873 kg CO 2 eq) in CO 2 emissions, whilst in the USA converting to reusables would have led to a 2427 kg CO 2 eq (48%) reduction. In Australia, converting from single-use to reusable equipment would more than double water use from 34.4 to 90.6 kilolitres.

CONCLUSIONS.

For an Australian hospital with six operating rooms, converting from single-use to reusable anaesthetic equipment saved more than AUD$30 000 (£18 000) per annum, but increased the CO 2 emissions by almost 10%. The CO 2 offset is highly dependent on the power source mix, while water consumption is greater for reusable equipment.

District Health Officer Perceptions of PEPFAR's Influence on the Health System in Uganda, 2005-2011

BACKGROUND

Vertically oriented global health initiatives (GHIs) addressing the HIV/AIDS epidemic, including the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), have successfully contributed to reducing HIV/AIDS related morbidity and mortality. However, there is still debate about whether these disease-specific programs have improved or harmed health systems overall, especially with respect to non-HIV health needs.

METHODS

As part of a larger evaluation of PEPFAR's effects on the health system between 2005-2011, we collected qualitative and quantitative data through semi-structured interviews with District Health Officers (DHOs) from all 112 districts in Uganda. We asked DHOs to share their perceptions about the ways in which HIV programs (largely PEPFAR in the Ugandan context) had helped and harmed the health system. We then identified key themes among their responses using qualitative content analysis.

RESULTS

Ugandan DHOs said PEPFAR had generally helped the health system by improving training, integrating HIV and non-HIV care, and directly providing resources. To a lesser extent, DHOs said PEPFAR caused the health system to focus too narrowly on HIV/AIDS, increased workload for already overburdened staff, and encouraged doctors to leave public sector jobs for higher-paid positions with HIV/AIDS programs.

CONCLUSION

Health system leaders in Uganda at the district level were appreciative of resources aimed at HIV they could often apply for broader purposes. As HIV infection becomes a chronic disease requiring strong health systems to manage sustained patient care over time, Uganda's weak health systems will require broad infrastructure improvements inconsistent with narrow vertical health programming.

Contact Tracing Activities during the Ebola Virus Disease Epidemic in Kindia and Faranah, Guinea, 2014

Thorough case identification and contact tracing are necessary to end this epidemic.

The largest recorded Ebola virus disease epidemic began in March 2014; as of July 2015, it continued in 3 principally affected countries: Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. Control efforts include contact tracing to expedite identification of the virus in suspect case-patients. We examined contact tracing activities during September 20–December 31, 2014, in 2 prefectures of Guinea using national and local data about case-patients and their contacts. Results show less than one third of case-patients (28.3% and 31.1%) were registered as contacts before case identification; approximately two thirds (61.1% and 67.7%) had no registered contacts. Time to isolation of suspected case-patients was not immediate (median 5 and 3 days for Kindia and Faranah, respectively), and secondary attack rates varied by relationships of persons who had contact with the source case-patient and the type of case-patient to which a contact was exposed. More complete contact tracing efforts are needed to augment control of this epidemic.

Increased utilisation of PEPFAR-supported laboratory services by non-HIV patents in Tanzania

BACKGROUND

It is unknown to what extent the non-HIV population utilises laboratories supported by the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR).

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to describe the number and proportion of laboratory tests performed in 2009 and 2011 for patients referred from HIV and non-HIV services (NHSs) in a convenience sample collected from 127 laboratories supported by PEPFAR in Tanzania. We then compared changes in the proportions of tests performed for patients referred from NHSs in 2009 vs 2011.

METHODS

Haematology, chemistry, tuberculosis and syphilis test data were collected from available laboratory registers. Referral sources, including HIV services, NHSs, or lack of a documented referral source, were recorded. A generalised linear mixed model reported the odds that a test was from a NHS.

RESULTS

A total of 94 132 tests from 94 laboratories in 2009 and 157 343 tests from 101 laboratories in 2011 were recorded. Half of all tests lacked a documented referral source. Tests from NHSs constituted 42% (66 084) of all tests in 2011, compared with 31% (29 181) in 2009. A test in 2011 was twice as likely to have been referred from a NHS as in 2009 (adjusted odds ratio: 2.0 [95% confidence interval: 2.0-2.1]).

CONCLUSION

Between 2009 and 2011, the number and proportion of tests from NHSs increased across all types of test. This finding may reflect increased documentation of NHS referrals or that the laboratory scale-up originally intended to service the HIV-positive population in Tanzania may be associated with a 'spillover effect' amongst the general population.

Contact Tracing Activities during the Ebola Virus Disease Epidemic in Kindia and Faranah, Guinea, 2014

The largest recorded Ebola virus disease epidemic began in March 2014; as of July 2015, it continued in 3 principally affected countries: Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. Control efforts include contact tracing to expedite identification of the virus in suspect case-patients. We examined contact tracing activities during September 20-December 31, 2014, in 2 prefectures of Guinea using national and local data about case-patients and their contacts. Results show less than one third of case-patients (28.3% and 31.1%) were registered as contacts before case identification; approximately two thirds (61.1% and 67.7%) had no registered contacts. Time to isolation of suspected case-patients was not immediate (median 5 and 3 days for Kindia and Faranah, respectively), and secondary attack rates varied by relationships of persons who had contact with the source case-patient and the type of case-patient to which a contact was exposed. More complete contact tracing efforts are needed to augment control of this epidemic.

Association between HIV programs and quality of maternal health inputs and processes in Kenya

We assessed whether quality of maternal and newborn health services is influenced by presence of HIV programs at Kenyan health facilities using data from a national facility survey. Facilities that provided services to prevent mother-to-child HIV transmission had better prenatal and postnatal care inputs, such as infrastructure and supplies, and those providing antiretroviral therapy had better quality of prenatal and postnatal care processes. HIV-related programs may have benefits for quality of care for related services in the health system.

Work-exacerbated asthma in a workers' compensation population

BACKGROUND

Asthma is becoming more prevalent with large numbers of individuals suffering from work-exacerbated asthma.

AIMS

To examine the characteristics of workplace exposures and working days lost in relation to work-exacerbated asthma (WEA) in a workers' compensation population.

METHODS

An analysis of accepted workers' compensation asthma claims in Ontario over a 5-year period. Claims among the top three industry groups were categorized based on working time lost of 1 day or less, 2-5 days and 6 days or more. Attributable agents were subdivided into dusts, smoke, chemicals and sensitizers.

RESULTS

Among the asthma claims, 72% (645) fulfilled criteria for WEA from their history. The commonest industry groups were services, education and health care, with 270 claims that met our analysis requirements. Within these industry groups, education had a lower proportion of workers with short exacerbations (missing 1 day or less: 27%) while the health care industry had a higher than expected proportion of short exacerbations (55%). The agents to which WEA was attributed differed across the groups, with dusts having the highest proportion in the education group (65%), smoke in the service industry (34%) and sensitizers in health care (41%). Those agents more commonly attributed to exacerbations tended to have lower rates of prolonged exacerbation compared with less commonly involved agents.

CONCLUSIONS

The morbidity of WEA and the type of agents to which it was attributed varied between industry groups.

PlasmaKinetic™ (bipolar) transurethral resection of prostate: a prospective trial to study pathological artefacts, surgical parameters and clinical outcomes

INTRODUCTION

The aims of the study were to compare the degree of cautery artefacts in prostatic chips between monopolar and PlasmaKinetic™ transurethral resection of prostate (TURP), and to determine if there is any difference in the intraoperative and post surgical parameters between them.

METHODS

After institutional review board approval, patients were prospectively enrolled to undergo PlasmaKinetic™ TURP. Their parameters were compared with those of the historical monopolar TURP controls. All histological specimens were reviewed by a single senior pathologist.

RESULTS

46 patients were recruited to undergo PlasmaKinetic™ TURP. The resection time was significantly longer for the bipolar group compared to the monopolar group (50.2 versus 36.7 min, p-value is 0.001). The speed of resection (resection weight/time) was lower for the bipolar group (0.45 versus 0.56 g/min, p-value is 0.017). More irrigant was used for the bipolar group (21.2 versus 15.6 litres, p-value is 0.001) intraoperatively. There was no statistically significant difference in terms of intraoperative drop in haemoglobin and serum sodium change between the two groups. There seems to be a lesser degree of cautery artefacts in the PlasmaKinetic™ group than the monopolar group (42.17 versus 45.07 microns); however, this was not statistically significant (p-value is 0.452).

CONCLUSION

Bipolar TURP seems to result in a lesser degree of cautery artefacts when compared to conventional monopolar TURP, albeit statistically insignificant, compared to monopolar TURP. TURP also resulted in a longer resection time and increased irrigant use, but no difference in blood loss and serum sodium levels.