Clinical characteristics and predictors of human mpox outcome during the 2022 outbreak in Nigeria: a cohort study

BACKGROUND

Research from sub-Saharan Africa that contributes to our understanding of the 2022 mpox (formerly known as monkeypox) global outbreak is insufficient. Here, we describe the clinical presentation and predictors of severe disease among patients with mpox diagnosed between Feb 1, 2022, and Jan 30, 2023 in Nigeria.

METHODS

We did a cohort study among laboratory-confirmed and probable mpox cases seen in 22 mpox-treatment centres and outpatient clinics across Nigeria. All individuals with confirmed and probable mpox were eligible for inclusion. Exclusion criteria were individuals who could not be examined for clinical characterisation and those who had unknown mortality outcomes. Skin lesion swabs or crust samples were collected from each patient for mpox diagnosis by PCR. A structured questionnaire was used to document sociodemographic and clinical data, including HIV status, complications, and treatment outcomes from the time of diagnosis to discharge or death. Severe disease was defined as mpox associated with death or with a life-threatening complication. Two logistic regression models were used to identify clinical characteristics associated with severe disease and potential risk factors for severe disease. The primary outcome was the clinical characteristics of mpox and disease severity.

FINDINGS

We enrolled 160 people with mpox from 22 states in Nigeria, including 134 (84%) adults, 114 (71%) males, 46 (29%) females, and 25 (16%) people with HIV. Of the 160 patients, distinct febrile prodrome (n=94, 59%), rash count greater than 250 (90, 56%), concomitant varicella zoster virus infection (n=48, 30%), and hospital admission (n=70, 48%) were observed. Nine (6%) of the 160 patients died, including seven (78%) deaths attributable to sepsis. The clinical features independently associated with severe disease were a rash count greater than 10 000 (adjusted odds ratio 26·1, 95% CI 5·2-135·0, p<0·0001) and confluent or semi-confluent rash (6·7, 95% CI 1·9-23·9). Independent risk factors for severe disease were concomitant varicella zoster virus infection (3·6, 95% CI 1·1-11·5) and advanced HIV disease (35·9, 95% CI 4·1-252·9).

INTERPRETATION

During the 2022 global outbreak, mpox in Nigeria was more severe among those with advanced HIV disease and concomitant varicella zoster virus infection. Proactive screening, management of co-infections, the integration and strengthening of mpox and HIV surveillance, and preventive and treatment services should be prioritised in Nigeria and across Africa.

FUNDING

None.

Mpox in people with advanced HIV infection: a global case series

BACKGROUND

People living with HIV have accounted for 38-50% of those affected in the 2022 multicountry mpox outbreak. Most reported cases were in people who had high CD4 cell counts and similar outcomes to those without HIV. Emerging data suggest worse clinical outcomes and higher mortality in people with more advanced HIV. We describe the clinical characteristics and outcomes of mpox in a cohort of people with HIV and low CD4 cell counts (CD4 <350 cells per mm3).

METHODS

A network of clinicians from 19 countries provided data of confirmed mpox cases between May 11, 2022, and Jan 18, 2023, in people with HIV infection. Contributing centres completed deidentified structured case report sheets to include variables of interest relevant to people living with HIV and to capture more severe outcomes. We restricted this series to include only adults older than 18 years living with HIV and with a CD4 cell count of less than 350 cells per mm3 or, in settings where a CD4 count was not always routinely available, an HIV infection clinically classified as US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention stage C. We describe their clinical presentation, complications, and causes of death. Analyses were descriptive.

FINDINGS

We included data of 382 cases: 367 cisgender men, four cisgender women, and ten transgender women. The median age of individuals included was 35 (IQR 30-43) years. At mpox diagnosis, 349 (91%) individuals were known to be living with HIV; 228 (65%) of 349 adherent to antiretroviral therapy (ART); 32 (8%) of 382 had a concurrent opportunistic illness. The median CD4 cell count was 211 (IQR 117-291) cells per mm3, with 85 (22%) individuals with CD4 cell counts of less than 100 cells per mm3 and 94 (25%) with 100-200 cells per mm3. Overall, 193 (51%) of 382 had undetectable viral load. Severe complications were more common in people with a CD4 cell count of less than 100 cells per mm3 than in those with more than 300 cells per mm3, including necrotising skin lesions (54% vs 7%), lung involvement (29% vs 0%) occasionally with nodules, and secondary infections and sepsis (44% vs 9%). Overall, 107 (28%) of 382 were hospitalised, of whom 27 (25%) died. All deaths occurred in people with CD4 counts of less than 200 cells per mm3. Among people with CD4 counts of less than 200 cells per mm3, more deaths occurred in those with high HIV viral load. An immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome to mpox was suspected in 21 (25%) of 85 people initiated or re-initiated on ART, of whom 12 (57%) of 21 died. 62 (16%) of 382 received tecovirimat and seven (2%) received cidofovir or brincidofovir. Three individuals had laboratory confirmation of tecovirimat resistance.

INTERPRETATION

A severe necrotising form of mpox in the context of advanced immunosuppression appears to behave like an AIDS-defining condition, with a high prevalence of fulminant dermatological and systemic manifestations and death.

FUNDING

None.

A national survey of hospital readiness during the COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria

Introduction

The COVID-19 pandemic continues to overwhelm health systems across the globe. We aimed to assess the readiness of hospitals in Nigeria to respond to the COVID-19 outbreak.

Method

Between April and October 2020, hospital representatives completed a modified World Health Organisation (WHO) COVID-19 hospital readiness checklist consisting of 13 components and 124 indicators. Readiness scores were classified as adequate (score ≥80%), moderate (score 50–79.9%) and not ready (score <50%).

Results

Among 20 (17 tertiary and three secondary) hospitals from all six geopolitical zones of Nigeria, readiness score ranged from 28.2% to 88.7% (median 68.4%), and only three (15%) hospitals had adequate readiness. There was a median of 15 isolation beds, four ICU beds and four ventilators per hospital, but over 45% of hospitals established isolation facilities and procured ventilators after the onset of COVID-19. Of the 13 readiness components, the lowest readiness scores were reported for surge capacity (61.1%), human resources (59.1%), staff welfare (50%) and availability of critical items (47.7%).

Conclusion

Most hospitals in Nigeria were not adequately prepared to respond to the COVID-19 outbreak. Current efforts to strengthen hospital preparedness should prioritize challenges related to surge capacity, critical care for COVID-19 patients, and staff welfare and protection.

Epidemiologic and Clinical Features of Lassa Fever Outbreak in Nigeria, January 1-May 6, 2018

The outbreak, which resulted in 423 confirmed cases and 106 deaths, was the largest recorded Lassa fever outbreak.

Lassa fever (LF) is endemic to Nigeria, where the disease causes substantial rates of illness and death. In this article, we report an analysis of the epidemiologic and clinical aspects of the LF outbreak that occurred in Nigeria during January 1–May 6, 2018. A total of 1,893 cases were reported; 423 were laboratory-confirmed cases, among which 106 deaths were recorded (case-fatality rate 25.1%). Among all confirmed cases, 37 occurred in healthcare workers. The secondary attack rate among 5,001 contacts was 0.56%. Most (80.6%) confirmed cases were reported from 3 states (Edo, Ondo, and Ebonyi). Fatal outcomes were significantly associated with being elderly; no administration of ribavirin; and the presence of a cough, hemorrhaging, and unconsciousness. The findings in this study should lead to further LF research and provide guidance to those preparing to respond to future outbreaks.

Increase in Lassa Fever Cases in Nigeria, January-March 2018

We reviewed data pertaining to the massive wave of Lassa fever cases that occurred in Nigeria in 2018. No new virus strains were detected, but in 2018, the outbreak response was intensified, additional diagnostic support was available, and surveillance sensitivity increased. These factors probably contributed to the high case count.