Drawing attention to previous studies can reduce confidence in a new research finding, even when confidence should increase

People often learn of new scientific findings from brief news reports, and may discount or ignore prior research, potentially contributing to misunderstanding of findings. In this preregistered study, we investigated how people interpret a brief news report on a new drug for weight loss. Participants read an article that either highlighted the importance of prior research when judging the drug's effectiveness, or made no mention of this issue. For articles describing no prior research, mean confidence in the drug was 62%. For articles that noted prior research was conducted, confidence increased as the proportion of studies with positive findings increased. When prior research was highlighted, confidence decreased by a small amount, even when it should have increased (i.e., even when most of the evidence supported the drug's effectiveness). Thus, people's judgements were more sceptical, but not necessarily more accurate. Judgements were not affected by education level, statistics experience, or personal relevance of the research topic.

Acceptance of anomalous research findings: explaining treatment implausibility reduces belief in far-fetched results

Research findings are best understood by considering contextual factors such as treatment plausibility: how likely it is that a studied treatment or manipulation is effective, based on theory and data. If a treatment is implausible, then more evidence should be required before believing it has an effect. The current study assessed the extent to which the interpretation of a research finding is affected by treatment plausibility. Participant age varied from 18 to 82 (M = 27.4, SD = 9.4), and about half of the participants (53%) were college students. A total of 600 participants read a brief news article about an experiment with a new type of psychotherapy for weight loss. The current study used a 2 (treatment plausibility) × 3 (results type) between-subjects factorial design. Treatment plausibility had two levels: (1) a plausible cognitive behavioral therapy and (2) an implausible ”psychic reinforcement therapy” that was described as employing psychic messages to promote weight loss. The three levels of the results type factor varied how the study results were presented in the article: (1) standard results with no mention of treatment plausibility, (2) standard results followed by interpretive statements focused on treatment plausibility, and (3) no results—the study was described as still in progress. Participants rated their belief in the effectiveness of the therapy on a scale of 0 to 100% in 10% increments. When treatment plausibility was not discussed in the article, average ratings for the implausible therapy were relatively high (M = 63.1%, SD = 25.0, 95% CI% [58.2–68.1]) and similar to those for the plausible therapy (M = 69.2%, SD = 21.5, 95% CI% [65.0–73.5]). Ratings for the implausible treatment were moderately lower when the article explained why the results supporting it were questionable (M = 48.5%, SD = 26.6, 95% CI% [43.2–53.8]). The findings of the current study suggest that students and other members of the public may draw incorrect inferences from research partly because they do not appreciate the importance of treatment plausibility. This could be remedied, though not completely, by explicitly discussing the plausibility of the treatment based on theory and prior data.

Is One Study as Good as Three? College Graduates Seem to Think So, Even if They Took Statistics Classes

When people interpret the outcome of a research study, do they consider other relevant information such as prior research? In the current study, 251 college graduates read a single brief fictitious news article. The article summarized the findings of a study that found positive results for a new drug. Three versions of the article varied the amount and type of previous research: (a) two prior studies that found the drug did not work, (b) no prior studies of the drug, or (c) two prior studies that found the drug had a positive effect. After reading the article, participants estimated the probability the drug is effective. Average estimates were similar for the three articles, even for participants who reported more statistics experience. Overall, just 4% of participants appeared to use prior research to make probability estimates—most seemed to focus on the latest study, while ignoring or discounting prior studies. Implications for statistics education and reporting are discussed.

Trait Distinctiveness and Accessibility in the Self-Schema

The distinctiveness of trait adjectives as self-descriptors was assessed in two ways. One method focused on how many people the trait described (self only, or self and others), whereas the other focused on how much it describes the self When distinctiveness is defined in terms of how many people the trait characterizes, distinctive traits yield slower self-reference decisions than common traits, regardless of degree of descriptiveness. On the other hand, when distinctiveness is defined as degree of descriptiveness, an inverted-U function results, with traits at either extreme of descriptiveness yielding faster decisions than those of intermediate descriptiveness. The results indicate these alternative definitions assess different aspects of distinctiveness, and conclusions drawn from one assessment may not apply to the other.

Perceived Honesty and Face Memory

This research examined how perceived honesty affects face memory. Photographs of college men and women were rated for honesty, and then selected exemplars of honest and dishonest faces were shown singly for study as targets. In the test phase, four types of four-face arrays were shown: (a) honest targets with honest distracters, (b) dishonest targets with honest distracters, (c) honest targets with dishonest distracters, and (c) dishonest targets with dishonest distracters. In addition, half of the four-face arrays involved four new faces (target absent). The primary effect of honesty in the target-present arrays was on confidence judgments, with subjects being more confident of their decisions about dishonest targets. In the target-absent arrays, there were more false alarms when honest-looking alternatives were present, contrary to what would be expected if a criminal stereotype was operating. A second experiment using only target-present arrays found better recognition and greater confidence associated with dishonest faces. An examination of additional ratings on this set of faces for typicality, attractiveness, and likability, revealed that overlapping features may be more responsible for these effects than the operation of a criminal stereotype.

Registered Replication Report: Schooler and Engstler-Schooler (1990)

Trying to remember something now typically improves your ability to remember it later. However, after watching a video of a simulated bank robbery, participants who verbally described the robber were 25% worse at identifying the robber in a lineup than were participants who instead listed U.S. states and capitals-this has been termed the "verbal overshadowing" effect (Schooler & Engstler-Schooler, 1990). More recent studies suggested that this effect might be substantially smaller than first reported. Given uncertainty about the effect size, the influence of this finding in the memory literature, and its practical importance for police procedures, we conducted two collections of preregistered direct replications (RRR1 and RRR2) that differed only in the order of the description task and a filler task. In RRR1, when the description task immediately followed the robbery, participants who provided a description were 4% less likely to select the robber than were those in the control condition. In RRR2, when the description was delayed by 20 min, they were 16% less likely to select the robber. These findings reveal a robust verbal overshadowing effect that is strongly influenced by the relative timing of the tasks. The discussion considers further implications of these replications for our understanding of verbal overshadowing.

Biased lineup instructions and face identification from video images

Previous eyewitness memory research has shown that biased lineup instructions reduce identification accuracy, primarily by increasing false-positive identifications in target-absent lineups. Because some attempts at identification do not rely on a witness's memory of the perpetrator but instead involve matching photos to images on surveillance video, the authors investigated the effects of biased instructions on identification accuracy in a matching task. In Experiment 1, biased instructions did not affect the overall accuracy of participants who used video images as an identification aid, but nearly all correct decisions occurred with target-present photo spreads. Both biased and unbiased instructions resulted in high false-positive rates. In Experiment 2, which focused on video-photo matching accuracy with target-absent photo spreads, unbiased instructions led to more correct responses (i.e., fewer false positives). These findings suggest that investigators should not relax precautions against biased instructions when people attempt to match photos to an unfamiliar person recorded on video.

Metamemory accuracy: effects of feedback and the stability of individual differences

This study addressed two questions about metamemory accuracy: how feedback about recall performance affects confidence-recall accuracy and whether individual differences in confidence-recall accuracy are stable across different sets of test items. College students answered general knowledge questions and made confidence ratings about the correctness of the answers. Half the students were told whether their answers were correct. All students answered half the questions a second time. The results show that feedback did not produce a general improvement in metamemory accuracy; the improvement was specific to the questions for which feedback was provided. Also, individual students' metamemory accuracy showed moderate alternate-forms stability when each test was made up of 250 items. Therefore, researchers studying individual differences in metamemory accuracy on recall tasks should use tests that yield several hundred responses.

Instability of individual differences in the association between confidence judgments and memory performance

There are large individual differences in the degree of association between the accuracy of memories and subjective confidence in those memories. Are these differences stable within the same test, and between alternate forms of a test? In Experiment 1, college students were tested on 3 recognition memory tasks, then retested 2 weeks later on alternate forms of the same tasks. The relationship between confidence judgments and recognition performance displayed low split-half stability and low alternate-forms stability. A second experiment with elderly adults replicated these findings. In a third experiment, college students recalled answers to general knowledge questions and rated confidence in the correctness of each answer. Individual differences in the association between confidence and recall performance were not stable across the odd- and even-numbered items on the test. These data indicate the need for the development of procedures that will produce stable estimates of individuals' metacognitive accuracy.

Design and synthesis of piperidine-3-carboxamides as human platelet aggregation inhibitors

A detailed structure-activity analysis was carried out using eight 1-alkyl(aralkyl)nipecotamides (type 5), 33 bis-nipecotamidoalkanes and aralkanes (type 6), and 7 N,N'-bis(nipecotoyl)-piperazines (type 7) as inhibitors of human platelet aggregation. Steric factors played an important role in determining the activity of type 5 compounds possessing an an appropriate degree of hydrophobic character. Types 6 and 7 compounds were more potent than the corresponding type 5 molecules. Hydrophobic character appeared to influence the activity of type 6 compounds. A 3-substituent on the piperidine ring was necessary for antiplatelet activity; the substituent should be preferably an amide with its C attached directly to the ring. 3,5-Disubstitution and 2-substitution led to a decline in activity. Optimal activity was attained when the two nipecotoyl ring N atoms were connected by an aralkyl group, and separated by approximately 7 A. It is suggested that van der Waals forces and pi interactions may govern the inhibitor-platelet interaction. The most potent type 6 inhibitor was alpha,alpha'-bis[3-(N-ethyl-N-butylcarbamoyl)piperidino]-p-xylene (6i). The most potent type 5 compound was 1-decyl-3-(N,N-diethylcarbamoyl)piperidine (5a). Any substitution on the piperazine ring of type 7 compounds led to a decline in activity, the most active analog being N,N'-bis(1-decylnipecotoyl)piperazine (7a). It is suggested that nipecotamides interact with anionic platelet sites located 7 A from each other and connected by a hydrophobic well.

Postoperative radiation of open head and neck wounds

Complication rates are lower using postoperative radiation therapy and cure rates at least compatible to preoperative radiation therapy. However, one of the concerns with postoperative radiation treatment is the possibility of delay in beginning the treatment because of an unhealed surgical wound. A delay of more than 6 weeks is detrimental. In order to study the effect of radiation therapy on incompletely healed wounds, a retrospective chart review of such cases during the period 1977 to 1984 was undertaken. One hundred and eighty-five patients had planned postoperative radiation therapy, and 13 of these began radiation therapy with an unhealed wound or fistula. Six of 10 wounds closed spontaneously, 4 required surgical closure, and 3 failed to heal. Seven patients in this study died with cancer, 2 died of other causes, 3 are alive without disease, and 1 patient remains alive with disease. We conclude that giving radiation therapy to an open wound with appropriate precaution can be done without serious complications.

Optical flow estimation: an error analysis of gradient-based methods with local optimization

Multiple views of a scene can provide important information about the structure and dynamic behavior of three-dimensional objects. Many of the methods that recover this information require the determination of optical flow-the velocity, on the image, of visible points on object surfaces. An important class of techniques for estimating optical flow depend on the relationship between the gradients of image brightness. While gradient-based methods have been widely studied, little attention has been paid to accuracy and reliability of the approach. Gradient-based methods are sensitive to conditions commonly encountered in real imagery. Highly textured surfaces, large areas of constant brightness, motion boundaries, and depth discontinuities can all be troublesome for gradient-based methods. Fortunately, these problematic areas are usually localized can be identified in the image. In this paper we examine the sources of errors for gradient-based techniques that locally solve for optical flow. These methods assume that optical flow is constant in a small neighborhood. The consequence of violating in this assumption is examined. The causes of measurement errors and the determinants of the conditioning of the solution system are also considered. By understanding how errors arise, we are able to define the inherent limitations of the technique, obtain estimates of the accuracy of computed values, enhance the performance of the technique, and demonstrate the informative value of some types of error.

Recognition of moving objects using feature signatures

An important application of machine vision systems is the recognition of known three-dimensional objects. A major difficulty arises when two or more objects project the same or similar two-dimensional image, often resulting in misclassification and degradation of system performance. The changes in images which result from the motion of objects provide a source of three-dimensional information which can greatly aid the classification process, but this three-dimensional analysis is computationally complex and subject to many sources of error. This work develops a methodology which utilizes the information derived from the apparent changes in object features over time to facilitate the recognition task, without the need to actually recover the three-dimensional structure of the objects under view. The basic approach is to generate a ``feature signature'' by combining the feature measurements of the individual regions in a long sequence of images. The static information in the individual frames is analyzed along with the temporal information from the entire sequence. These techniques are particularly applicable in situations where static image processing methods cannot discriminate between ambiguous objects. Two example implementations are presented to illustrate the application of the techniques of object recognition using motion information.

Dynamic occlusion analysis in optical flow fields

Optical flow can be used to locate dynamic occlusion boundaries in an image sequence. We derive an edge detection algorithm sensitive to changes in flow fields likely to be associated with occlusion. The algorithm is patterned after the Marr-Hildreth zero-crossing detectors currently used to locate boundaries in scalar fields. Zero-crossing detectors are extended to identify changes in direction and/or magnitude in a vector-valued flow field. As a result, the detector works for flow boundaries generated due to the relative motion of two overlapping surfaces, as well as the simpler case of motion parallax due to a sensor moving through an otherwise stationary environment. We then show how the approach can be extended to identify which side of a dynamic occlusion boundary corresponds to the occluding surface. The fundamental principal involved is that at an occlusion boundary, the image of the surface boundary moves with the image of the occluding surface. Such information is important in interpreting dynamic scenes. Results are demonstrated on optical flow fields automatically computed from real image sequences.

Analysis of accretion and deletion at boundaries in dynamic scenes

In dynamic scenes, the presence of object boundaries is often signaled by the appearance or disappearance of occluded surfaces over time. Such regions of surface accretion or deletion can be found using matching techniques similar to those used to determine optical flow in an image sequence. Regions in one frame that are not adequately matched by any region in previous frames correspond to accretion. Regions that have no matches in subsequent frames correspond to deletion. In either case, an occlusion boundary is present. Furthermore, by associating accretion or deletion regions with a surface on one side of a boundary, it is possible to determine which side of the boundary is being occluded. This association can be based purely on visual motion-the accretion or deletion region moves with the same image velocity as the remaining visible surface to which it is attached.

Face memory and hemispheric preference: emotionality and extraversion

Subjects made arousing or nonarousing judgments about photographs of strangers, then had an unannounced recognition test over the photographs. Emotional orienting tasks led to better retention than nonemotional tasks. Assuming emotionality is predominantly a right-hemisphere activity, then this result is consistent with other research showing a right-hemisphere advantage in processing faces. This difference was most clear for subjects with a right-hemisphere cognitive style. Extraversion had no effect on face recognition, nor did a subject's cognitive style seem to be associated with extraversion or neuroticism scores.

Distribution of histidine-rich basic protein, a possible keratin matrix protein, in rat oral epithelium

The indirect fluorescent-antibody technique was used to locate histidine-rich basic protein, filaggrin. In the newborn, immunofluorescence was seen in the cornified layers and in keratohyalin granules throughout the mouth using antibody specific for epidermal filaggrin, a distribution similar to that in epidermis where it is thought that filaggrin functions as the keratin matrix protein. In the adult immunofluorescence was in keratohyalin granules of palate, buccal and tongue epithelium but in the stratum corneum was limited to the soft palate with weak, patchy areas in the densely keratinized epithelium of the hard palate and tongue. Immunofluorescence was delineated at the boundary between the soft and hard palates. A protein apparently identical to epidermal filaggrin was identified in extracts of newborn palate by its mobility on sodium dodecyl sulphate-polyacrylamide gels and subsequent reaction with the antibody used for immunofluorescent studies. This protein was not detected in extracts of adult oral epithelia. Both newborn and adult tissues contained high mol. wt cross-reactive protein, suggestive of the filaggrin-precursor protein extractable from keratohyalin granules. The distribution of filaggrin was consistent with its function as a keratin matrix protein in the newborn oral epithelium and some less densely keratinized regions of the adult. However, in the adult mouth, filaggrin is not detectable in the stratum corneum of the most densely keratinized regions. Thus, the protein must be lost or its antigenic sites altered with maturation of the animal, depending on the type and extent of keratinization.

Disparity analysis of images

An algorithm for matching images of real world scenes is presented. The matching is a specification of the geometrical disparity between the images and may be used to partially reconstruct the three-dimensional structure of the scene. Sets of candidate matching points are selected independently in each image. These points are the locations of small, distinct features which are likely to be detectable in both images. An initial network of possible matches between the two sets of candidates is constructed. Each possible match specifies a possible disparity of a candidate point in a selected reference image. An initial estimate of the probability of each possible disparity is made, based on the similarity of subimages surrounding the points. These estimates are iteratively improved by a relaxation labeling technique making use of the local continuity property of disparity that is a consequence of the continuity of real world surfaces. The algorithm is effective for binocular parallax, motion parallax, and object motion. It quickly converges to good estimates of disparity, which reflect the spatial organization of the scene.

Automated computer screening of chest radiographs for pneumoconiosis

The results of two complementary approaches for performing diagnostic screening for the presence of coal workers' pneumoconiosis (CWP) from the routine posterior-anterior chest radiograph are presented. The first is a digital approach utilizing the measurement of image texture, while the second uses hybrid optical-digital methods involving the optical Fourier transform. Both approaches yield classification results comparable to experienced radiologists.