Consumption responses to an unconditional child allowance in the United States

The COVID-19 pandemic put families in the United States under financial stress. The federal government's largest response in 2021 was the American Rescue Plan Act, which temporarily expanded the Child Tax Credit (CTC) into a large, unconditional child allowance providing monthly payments to families with children. This study investigates consumption responses to the CTC expansion using anonymized mobile-location data and debit/credit card data that track visits and spending at 1.3 million establishments across US counties. For identification, we exploit variation in the size of households' income gains due to the CTC across counties in a difference-in-differences framework spanning January 2021 to May 2022. Counties benefiting most from the CTC expansion experienced larger increases in visits to childcare centres and health- and personal-care establishments, and increased visits to and spending per transaction at grocery and general stores. These findings suggest that the CTC expansion increased household consumption and spending on children.

Transitioning to adulthood: Are conventional benchmarks as protective today as they were in the past?

More young adults in the United States are studying beyond high school and working full-time than in the past, yet young adults continue to have high poverty rates as they transition to adulthood. This study uses longitudinal data on two cohorts of young adults from the 1979 and 1997 National Longitudinal Study of Youth to assess whether conventional benchmarks associated with economic success-gaining an education, finding stable employment, and delaying childbirth until after marriage-are as predictive of reduced poverty today as they were in the past. We also explore differences in the protective effect of the benchmarks by race/ethnicity, gender, and poverty status while young. We find that, on average, the benchmarks associated with economic success are as predictive of reduced poverty among young adults today as they were for the prior generation; however, demographics and features of the economy have contributed to higher poverty rates among today's young adults.

The United States' Record-Low Child Poverty Rate in International and Historical Perspective: A Research Note

In 2021, the federal government of the United States expanded a set of income transfers that led to strong reductions in child poverty. This research note uses microdata from more than 50 countries and U.S. data spanning more than 50 years to place the 2021 child poverty rate in historical and international perspective. We demonstrate that whether using the Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM), relative poverty measures, or an absolute poverty measure, the U.S. child poverty rate in 2021 was at its lowest level since at least 1967. The U.S. tax and transfer system reduced the 2021 SPM child poverty rate by more than 75% relative to the pre-tax/transfer child poverty rate; this reduction was three times the mean reduction effect between 1967 and 2019. These policy changes improved the country's standing from having a relative poverty rate twice that of Germany's in 2019 to the same as Germany's in 2021. Moreover, the U.S. progressed from reducing child poverty at less than half the rate of Norway in 2019 to a rate comparable to Norway in 2021. However, the U.S. success was temporary: after the expiration of the 2021 income provisions, the child poverty rate doubled and returned to being higher than in most other high-income countries.

Cumulative Unionization and Physical Health Disparities among Older Adults

Whereas previous research shows that union membership is associated with improved health, static measurements have been used to test dynamic theories linking the two. We construct a novel measure of cumulative unionization, tracking individuals across their entire careers, to examine health consequences in older adulthood. We use data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (1970-2019) and predict self-rated health, functional limitations, and chronic health conditions in ages 60 to 79 using cumulative unionization measured during respondents' careers. Results from growth models show that unionized careers are associated with .25 SD to .30 SD improvements in health among older adults across all measures. Analyses of life course mechanisms reveal heterogeneous effects across unionization timing, age in older adulthood, and birth cohort. Moreover, subgroup analyses reveal unionization to partially, but not fully, ameliorate disparities based on privileged social positions. Our findings reveal a substantial and novel mechanism driving older adulthood health disparities.

Exposure to Childhood Poverty and Racial Differences in Economic Opportunity in Young Adulthood

Young adults in the United States, especially young Black adults, experience high poverty rates relative to other age groups. Prior research has largely attributed racial disparities in young adult poverty to differential attainment of benchmarks related to education, employment, and family formation. This study investigates that mechanism alongside racial differences in childhood poverty exposure. Analyses of Panel Study of Income Dynamics data reveal that racial differences in childhood poverty are more consequential than differential attainment of education, employment, and family formation benchmarks in shaping racial differences in young adult poverty. Whereas benchmark attainment reduces an individual's likelihood of poverty, racial differences in benchmark attainment do not meaningfully explain Black-White poverty gaps for three reasons. First, childhood poverty is negatively associated with benchmark attainment, generating strong selection effects into the behavioral characteristics associated with lower poverty. Second, benchmark attainment does not equalize poverty rates among Black and White men. Third, Black children experience four times the poverty rate of White children, and childhood poverty has lingering negative consequences for young adult poverty. Although equalizing benchmark attainment would reduce Black-White gaps in young adult poverty, equalizing childhood poverty exposure would have twice the reduction effect.

Economic Precarity among Single Parents in the United States during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Single-parent families have historically faced greater economic precarity relative to other family types in the United States. We investigate how and whether those disparities widened after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using data on exposure to school and childcare center closures, unemployment, poverty, food hardship, and frequent worrying among single-parent families versus two-parent families throughout 2020 and 2021, we find that the challenges that single parents faced prior to the pandemic generally magnified after the arrival of COVID-19. In April 2020, one in four single parents was unemployed, and unemployment rates recovered more slowly for single parents throughout 2021, perhaps in part due to their unequal exposure to school and childcare closures. The expansion of income transfers largely buffered against potential increases in poverty and hardship, but levels of worrying among single parents continued to worsen throughout 2021.

The Role of Poverty and Racial Discrimination in Exacerbating the Health Consequences of COVID-19

There were more than 800,000 confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) deaths in the United States (U.S) by the end of 2021. The health consequences of COVID-19, however, have not affected all residents equally. In this review, we synthesize recent evidence suggesting that high levels of poverty in the U.S. compared to other high-income countries, as well as historic and ongoing racial/ethnic discrimination, have exacerbated the health consequences of COVID-19, particularly for racial/ethnic minorities. We discuss four mechanisms through which poverty and discrimination affect COVID-19-related health consequences: greater pre-existing health challenges, reduced access to healthcare, lower-quality neighbourhood and housing conditions, and unequal exposure to high-risk occupations. Evidence suggests that economic and policy institutions that contributed to higher pre-pandemic poverty rates in the U.S., particularly among racial/ethnic minorities, have been central determinants of unequal health outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Decomposing the Decline of Cash Assistance in the United States, 1993 to 2016

Cash assistance allocations from Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) and its predecessor program fell from $34.3 billion to $7.4 billion in real value from 1993 to 2016, a 78% decrease. Some investigations of TANF point to favorable labor market changes as the source of the decline, whereas others point to declining benefit levels and barriers to benefit receipt. This study introduces a framework to decompose the decline of TANF cash assistance into changes in need for cash assistance, the participation rate among those meeting income-based eligibility standards, and benefit levels among those receiving cash support. Using the U.S. Current Population Survey, I find that declining participation explains 52% of the decline in TANF cash assistance from 1993 onward, whereas declining need explains 21%, and declining benefit levels explain 27%. The study then applies reweighting techniques to measure the extent to which compositional changes in the population, such as rising employment rates among single mothers, can explain changes in need, participation, and benefit levels. The results suggest that compositional changes explain only 22% of the decline of TANF cash assistance, confirming that the majority of the decline is due to reduced participation and benefit levels rather than reduced demand for cash support. Adding the noncompositional share of the decline in TANF back to observed levels of cash spending in 2016 would result in nearly $20 billion in additional transfers, more than the minimum amount necessary to lift all single-mother households out of poverty.

Large socio-economic, geographic and demographic disparities exist in exposure to school closures

The coronovirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has prompted many school districts to turn to distance or at-home learning. Studies are emerging on the negative effects of distance learning on educational performance, but less is known about the socio-economic, geographic and demographic characteristics of students exposed to distance learning. We introduce a U.S. School Closure and Distance Learning Database that tracks in-person visits across more than 100,000 schools throughout 2020. The database, which we make publicly accessible and update monthly, describes year-over-year change in in-person visits to each school throughout 2020 to estimate whether the school is engaged in distance learning. Our findings reveal that school closures from September to December 2020 were more common in schools with lower third-grade math scores and higher shares of students from racial/ethnic minorities, who experience homelessness, have limited English proficiency and are eligible for free/reduced-price school lunches. The findings portend rising inequalities in learning outcomes.

Large socio-economic, geographic and demographic disparities exist in exposure to school closures

The coronovirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has prompted many school districts to turn to distance or at-home learning. Studies are emerging on the negative effects of distance learning on educational performance, but less is known about the socio-economic, geographic and demographic characteristics of students exposed to distance learning. We introduce a U.S. School Closure and Distance Learning Database that tracks in-person visits across more than 100,000 schools throughout 2020. The database, which we make publicly accessible and update monthly, describes year-over-year change in in-person visits to each school throughout 2020 to estimate whether the school is engaged in distance learning. Our findings reveal that school closures from September to December 2020 were more common in schools with lower third-grade math scores and higher shares of students from racial/ethnic minorities, who experience homelessness, have limited English proficiency and are eligible for free/reduced-price school lunches. The findings portend rising inequalities in learning outcomes.

What the COVID-19 Pandemic Reveals about Racial Differences in Child Welfare and Child Well-Being: An Introduction to the Special Issue

This paper introduces the special issue on race, child welfare, and child well-being. In doing so, I summarize the evidence of racial/ethnic disparities in child well-being after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Recent findings demonstrate that, compared to white children, black and Latino children are more likely to have experienced poverty and food insufficiency, to have had parents lose their jobs, and to be exposed to distance learning and school closures during the pandemic. I argue that though COVID-19 has indeed worsened racial/ethnic disparities in child well-being, it has also served to place a spotlight on the American welfare state's historical mistreatment of low-income families and black and Latino families in particular. Consider that around three-fourths of black and Latino children facing food insufficiency during the pandemic also experienced food insufficiency prior to the onset of the pandemic. Moving forward, analyses of racial/ethnic disparities in child well-being during the pandemic, I argue, must not only consider the economic shock and high unemployment rates of 2020, but the failure of the American welfare state to adequately support jobless parents, and black and Latino parents in particular, long before the COVID-19 pandemic arrived.

The Levels and Trends in Deep and Extreme Poverty in the United States, 1993-2016

Recently, there has been tremendous interest in deep and extreme poverty in the United States. We advance beyond prior research by using higher-quality data, improving measurement, and following leading standards in international income research. We estimate deep (less than 20% of medians) and extreme (less than 10% of medians) poverty in the United States from 1993 to 2016. Using the Current Population Survey, we match the income definition of the Luxembourg Income Study and adjust for underreporting using the Urban Institute's TRIM3 model. In 2016, we estimate that 5.2 to 7.2 million Americans (1.6% to 2.2%) were deeply poor and 2.6 to 3.7 million (0.8% to 1.2%) were extremely poor. Although deep and extreme poverty fluctuated over time, including declines from 1993 to 1995 and 2007 to 2010, we find significant increases from lows in 1995 to peaks in 2016 in both deep (increases of 48% to 93%) and extreme poverty (increases of 54% to 111%). We even find significant increases with thresholds anchored at 1993 medians. With homelessness added, deep poverty would be 7% to 8% higher and extreme poverty 19% to 23% higher in 2016, which suggests that our estimates are probably lower bounds. The rise of deep/extreme poverty is concentrated among childless households. Among households with children, the expansion of SNAP benefits has led to declines in deep/extreme poverty. Ultimately, we demonstrate that estimates of deep/extreme poverty depend critically on the quality of income measurement.

The Direct Effect of Taxes and Transfers on Changes in the U.S. Income Distribution, 1967-2015

Scholars have increasingly drawn attention to rising levels of income inequality in the United States. However, prior studies have provided an incomplete account of how changes to specific transfer programs have contributed to changes in income growth across the distribution. Our study decomposes the direct effects of tax and transfer programs on changes in the household income distribution from 1967 to 2015. We show that despite a rising Gini coefficient, lower-tail inequality (the ratio of the 50th to 10th percentile) declined in the United States during this period due to the rise of in-kind and tax-based transfers. Food assistance and refundable tax credits account for nearly all the income growth between 1967 and 2015 at the 5th percentile and roughly one-half the growth at the 10th percentile. Moreover, income gains near the bottom of the distribution are concentrated among households with children. Changes in the income distribution were far less progressive among households without children.

Assessing the policy and practice impact of an international policy initiative: the State of the World's Midwifery 2014

BACKGROUND

Understanding how policies lead to changes in health systems and in practice helps policymakers and researchers to intervene more successfully. Yet identifying all the possible changes that occur as a result of a new policy is challenging not only methodologically and logistically, as limited resources are available to conduct indefinite evaluations, but also theoretically, as a complete mapping and attribution of post-hoc changes requires a full understanding of the mechanisms underpinning all change. One option is to identify possible changes across a number of policy impact domains.

METHODS

Using a Policy Impact Framework, we brought together data from media, documents and interviews to identify changes to midwifery policy, practice and provision, following the launch of a new global policy initiative, the State of the World's Midwifery (SoWMy 2014) report published in 2014. We used these identified impacts to develop a map of the mechanisms underpinning these changes.

RESULTS

SoWMy 2014 contributed to a number of changes at national levels, including increased status of midwifery within national governments, improved curricula and training opportunities for midwives, and improved provision of and access to midwifery-led care. These contributions were attributed to SoWMy 2014 via mechanisms such as stakeholder interaction and acquisition of government support, holding national and international dissemination and training events, and a perceived global momentum around supporting midwifery provision. Policy initiatives of this kind can lead to changes in national and international policy dialogue and practice. We identify factors and mechanisms that are likely to increase the scope and scale of these changes, at contextual, national and global levels.

CONCLUSIONS

Identifying changes following a policy using a policy impact framework can help researchers and policymakers understand why policies have the effect they do. This is important information for those wishing to increase the effectiveness of future policies and interventions.