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Dada L, Stolzenburg D, Simon M, Fischer L, Heinritzi M, Wang M, Xiao M, Vogel AL, Ahonen L, Amorim A, Baalbaki R, Baccarini A, Baltensperger U, Bianchi F, Daellenbach KR, DeVivo J, Dias A, Dommen J, Duplissy J, Finkenzeller H, Hansel A, He XC, Hofbauer V, Hoyle CR, Kangasluoma J, Kim C, Kürten A, Kvashnin A, Mauldin R, Makhmutov V, Marten R, Mentler B, Nie W, Petäjä T, Quéléver LLJ, Saathoff H, Tauber C, Tome A, Molteni U, Volkamer R, Wagner R, Wagner AC, Wimmer D, Winkler PM, Yan C, Zha Q, Rissanen M, Gordon H, Curtius J, Worsnop DR, Lehtipalo K, Donahue NM, Kirkby J, El Haddad I, Kulmala M. Role of sesquiterpenes in biogenic new particle formation. Sci Adv 2023; 9:eadi5297. [PMID: 37682996 PMCID: PMC10491295 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adi5297] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/02/2023] [Accepted: 08/07/2023] [Indexed: 09/10/2023]
Abstract
Biogenic vapors form new particles in the atmosphere, affecting global climate. The contributions of monoterpenes and isoprene to new particle formation (NPF) have been extensively studied. However, sesquiterpenes have received little attention despite a potentially important role due to their high molecular weight. Via chamber experiments performed under atmospheric conditions, we report biogenic NPF resulting from the oxidation of pure mixtures of β-caryophyllene, α-pinene, and isoprene, which produces oxygenated compounds over a wide range of volatilities. We find that a class of vapors termed ultralow-volatility organic compounds (ULVOCs) are highly efficient nucleators and quantitatively determine NPF efficiency. When compared with a mixture of isoprene and monoterpene alone, adding only 2% sesquiterpene increases the ULVOC yield and doubles the formation rate. Thus, sesquiterpene emissions need to be included in assessments of global aerosol concentrations in pristine climates where biogenic NPF is expected to be a major source of cloud condensation nuclei.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lubna Dada
- Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry, Paul Scherrer Institute, 5232 Villigen, Switzerland
- Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR)/Physics, University of Helsinki, FI-00014 Finland
| | - Dominik Stolzenburg
- Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR)/Physics, University of Helsinki, FI-00014 Finland
- Universität Wien, Fakultät für Physik, 1090 Vienna, Austria
- Institute for Materials Chemistry, TU Wien, 1060 Vienna, Austria
| | - Mario Simon
- Institute for Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, Goethe University Frankfurt am Main, 60438 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
| | - Lukas Fischer
- Institute for Ion Physics and Applied Physics, University of Innsbruck, 6020 Innsbruck, Austria
| | - Martin Heinritzi
- Institute for Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, Goethe University Frankfurt am Main, 60438 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
| | - Mingyi Wang
- Center for Atmospheric Particle Studies, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA
- Division of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125, USA
| | - Mao Xiao
- Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry, Paul Scherrer Institute, 5232 Villigen, Switzerland
| | - Alexander L. Vogel
- Institute for Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, Goethe University Frankfurt am Main, 60438 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
| | - Lauri Ahonen
- Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR)/Physics, University of Helsinki, FI-00014 Finland
| | - Antonio Amorim
- CENTRA and Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal
| | - Rima Baalbaki
- Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR)/Physics, University of Helsinki, FI-00014 Finland
| | - Andrea Baccarini
- Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry, Paul Scherrer Institute, 5232 Villigen, Switzerland
- Laboratory of Atmospheric Processes and their Impact, Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne, 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland
| | - Urs Baltensperger
- Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry, Paul Scherrer Institute, 5232 Villigen, Switzerland
| | - Federico Bianchi
- Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR)/Physics, University of Helsinki, FI-00014 Finland
| | - Kaspar R. Daellenbach
- Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry, Paul Scherrer Institute, 5232 Villigen, Switzerland
| | - Jenna DeVivo
- Center for Atmospheric Particle Studies, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA
| | - Antonio Dias
- CENTRA and Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal
| | - Josef Dommen
- Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry, Paul Scherrer Institute, 5232 Villigen, Switzerland
| | - Jonathan Duplissy
- Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR)/Physics, University of Helsinki, FI-00014 Finland
- Helsinki Institute of Physics (HIP)/Physics, Faculty of Science, University of Helsinki, 00014 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Henning Finkenzeller
- Department of Chemistry and CIRES, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
| | - Armin Hansel
- Institute for Ion Physics and Applied Physics, University of Innsbruck, 6020 Innsbruck, Austria
| | - Xu-Cheng He
- Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR)/Physics, University of Helsinki, FI-00014 Finland
- Finnish Meteorological Institute, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Victoria Hofbauer
- Center for Atmospheric Particle Studies, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA
| | - Christopher R. Hoyle
- Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry, Paul Scherrer Institute, 5232 Villigen, Switzerland
- Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Juha Kangasluoma
- Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR)/Physics, University of Helsinki, FI-00014 Finland
| | - Changhyuk Kim
- School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Pusan National University, Busan 46241, Republic of Korea
- Division of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125, USA
| | - Andreas Kürten
- Institute for Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, Goethe University Frankfurt am Main, 60438 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
| | - Aleksander Kvashnin
- P.N. Lebedev Physical Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 53, Leninskiy Prospekt, Moscow, Russian Federation
| | - Roy Mauldin
- Center for Atmospheric Particle Studies, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
| | - Vladimir Makhmutov
- P.N. Lebedev Physical Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 53, Leninskiy Prospekt, Moscow, Russian Federation
- Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology (National Research University), 141701 Dolgoprudny, Russian Federation
| | - Ruby Marten
- Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry, Paul Scherrer Institute, 5232 Villigen, Switzerland
| | - Bernhard Mentler
- Institute for Ion Physics and Applied Physics, University of Innsbruck, 6020 Innsbruck, Austria
| | - Wei Nie
- Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR)/Physics, University of Helsinki, FI-00014 Finland
- Joint International Research Laboratory of Atmospheric and Earth System Sciences, School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, China
| | - Tuukka Petäjä
- Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR)/Physics, University of Helsinki, FI-00014 Finland
| | - Lauriane L. J. Quéléver
- Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR)/Physics, University of Helsinki, FI-00014 Finland
| | - Harald Saathoff
- Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Hermann-von-Helmholtz-Platz 1, 76344 Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen, Germany
| | | | - Antonio Tome
- IDL-Universidade da Beira Interior, Covilhã, Portugal
| | - Ugo Molteni
- Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry, Paul Scherrer Institute, 5232 Villigen, Switzerland
- Department of Chemistry, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA 92697, USA
- Forest Dynamics, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
| | - Rainer Volkamer
- Finnish Meteorological Institute, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Robert Wagner
- Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR)/Physics, University of Helsinki, FI-00014 Finland
| | - Andrea C. Wagner
- Institute for Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, Goethe University Frankfurt am Main, 60438 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
| | - Daniela Wimmer
- Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR)/Physics, University of Helsinki, FI-00014 Finland
| | | | - Chao Yan
- Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR)/Physics, University of Helsinki, FI-00014 Finland
| | - Qiaozhi Zha
- Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR)/Physics, University of Helsinki, FI-00014 Finland
| | - Matti Rissanen
- Aerosol Physics Laboratory, Department of Physics, Tampere University, 33720 Tampere, Finland
- Chemistry Department, University of Helsinki, 00014 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Hamish Gordon
- Center for Atmospheric Particle Studies, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA
| | - Joachim Curtius
- Institute for Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, Goethe University Frankfurt am Main, 60438 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
| | - Douglas R. Worsnop
- Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR)/Physics, University of Helsinki, FI-00014 Finland
- Aerodyne Research Inc., Billerica, MA 01821, USA
| | - Katrianne Lehtipalo
- Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR)/Physics, University of Helsinki, FI-00014 Finland
- Finnish Meteorological Institute, FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland
| | - Neil M. Donahue
- Center for Atmospheric Particle Studies, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA
| | - Jasper Kirkby
- Institute for Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, Goethe University Frankfurt am Main, 60438 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
- CERN, CH-1211 Geneva 23, Switzerland
| | - Imad El Haddad
- Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry, Paul Scherrer Institute, 5232 Villigen, Switzerland
| | - Markku Kulmala
- Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR)/Physics, University of Helsinki, FI-00014 Finland
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Tang J, Zeng C, Cox TM, Li C, Son YM, Cheon IS, Wu Y, Behl S, Taylor JJ, Chakraborty R, Johnson AJ, Schiavo DN, Utz JP, Reisenauer JS, Midthun DE, Mullon JJ, Edell ES, Alameh MG, Borish L, Teague WG, Kaplan MH, Weissman D, Kern R, Hu H, Vassallo R, Liu SL, Sun J. Respiratory mucosal immunity against SARS-CoV-2 after mRNA vaccination. Sci Immunol 2022; 7:eadd4853. [PMID: 35857583 PMCID: PMC9348751 DOI: 10.1126/sciimmunol.add4853] [Citation(s) in RCA: 141] [Impact Index Per Article: 70.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/14/2022] [Accepted: 07/11/2022] [Indexed: 12/30/2022]
Abstract
SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccination induces robust humoral and cellular immunity in the circulation; however, it is currently unknown whether it elicits effective immune responses in the respiratory tract, particularly against variants of concern (VOCs), including Omicron. We compared the SARS-CoV-2 S-specific total and neutralizing antibody responses, and B and T cell immunity, in the bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BAL) and blood of COVID-19-vaccinated individuals and hospitalized patients. Vaccinated individuals had significantly lower levels of neutralizing antibody against D614G, Delta (B.1.617.2), and Omicron BA.1.1 in the BAL compared with COVID-19 convalescents despite robust S-specific antibody responses in the blood. Furthermore, mRNA vaccination induced circulating S-specific B and T cell immunity, but in contrast to COVID-19 convalescents, these responses were absent in the BAL of vaccinated individuals. Using a mouse immunization model, we demonstrated that systemic mRNA vaccination alone induced weak respiratory mucosal neutralizing antibody responses, especially against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.1.1 in mice; however, a combination of systemic mRNA vaccination plus mucosal adenovirus-S immunization induced strong neutralizing antibody responses not only against the ancestral virus but also the Omicron BA.1.1 variant. Together, our study supports the contention that the current COVID-19 vaccines are highly effective against severe disease development, likely through recruiting circulating B and T cell responses during reinfection, but offer limited protection against breakthrough infection, especially by the Omicron sublineage. Hence, mucosal booster vaccination is needed to establish robust sterilizing immunity in the respiratory tract against SARS-CoV-2, including infection by the Omicron sublineage and future VOCs.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jinyi Tang
- Carter Immunology Center, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA 22908
- Division of Infectious Disease and International Health, Department of Medicine, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA 22908
- Division of Pulmonary and Critical Medicine, Department of Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA 55905
| | - Cong Zeng
- Center for Retrovirus Research, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA 43210
- Department of Veterinary Biosciences, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA 43210
| | - Thomas M. Cox
- Division of Pulmonary and Critical Medicine, Department of Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA 55905
| | - Chaofan Li
- Carter Immunology Center, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA 22908
- Division of Infectious Disease and International Health, Department of Medicine, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA 22908
- Division of Pulmonary and Critical Medicine, Department of Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA 55905
| | - Young Min Son
- Carter Immunology Center, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA 22908
- Department of Systems Biotechnology, Chung-Ang University, Anseong, Gyeonggi-do, Republic of Korea 17546
| | - In Su Cheon
- Carter Immunology Center, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA 22908
- Division of Infectious Disease and International Health, Department of Medicine, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA 22908
- Division of Pulmonary and Critical Medicine, Department of Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA 55905
| | - Yue Wu
- Department of Immunology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA 55905
| | - Supriya Behl
- Department of Pediatrics and Adolescent Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA 55905
| | - Justin J. Taylor
- Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA 98109
| | - Rana Chakraborty
- Department of Pediatrics and Adolescent Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA 55905
| | | | - Dante N. Schiavo
- Division of Pulmonary and Critical Medicine, Department of Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA 55905
| | - James P. Utz
- Division of Pulmonary and Critical Medicine, Department of Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA 55905
| | - Janani S. Reisenauer
- Division of Pulmonary and Critical Medicine, Department of Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA 55905
| | - David E. Midthun
- Division of Pulmonary and Critical Medicine, Department of Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA 55905
| | - John J. Mullon
- Division of Pulmonary and Critical Medicine, Department of Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA 55905
| | - Eric S. Edell
- Division of Pulmonary and Critical Medicine, Department of Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA 55905
| | - Mohamad G. Alameh
- Department of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA 19104
| | - Larry Borish
- Division of Asthma, Allergy and Immunology, Department of Medicine, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA 22908
| | - William G. Teague
- Child Health Research Center, Department of Pediatrics, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA 22908
| | - Mark H. Kaplan
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Indiana University School of Medicine, Indianapolis, IN, USA 46074
| | - Drew Weissman
- Department of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA 19104
| | - Ryan Kern
- Division of Pulmonary and Critical Medicine, Department of Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA 55905
| | - Haitao Hu
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, TX, USA 77555
| | - Robert Vassallo
- Division of Pulmonary and Critical Medicine, Department of Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA 55905
| | - Shan-Lu Liu
- Center for Retrovirus Research, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA 43210
- Department of Veterinary Biosciences, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA 43210
| | - Jie Sun
- Carter Immunology Center, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA 22908
- Division of Infectious Disease and International Health, Department of Medicine, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA 22908
- Division of Pulmonary and Critical Medicine, Department of Medicine, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA 55905
- Department of Immunology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA 55905
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3
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Cai X, Liu L, Qiu C, Wen C, He Y, Cui Y, Li S, Zhang X, Zhang L, Tian C, Bi L, Zhou ZH, Gong W. Identification and architecture of a putative secretion tube across mycobacterial outer envelope. Sci Adv 2021; 7:7/34/eabg5656. [PMID: 34417177 PMCID: PMC8378821 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abg5656] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/16/2021] [Accepted: 06/29/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Tuberculosis-causing mycobacteria have thick cell-wall and capsule layers that are formed from complex structures. Protein secretion across these barriers depends on a specialized protein secretion system, but none has been reported. We show that Mycobacterium tuberculosis Rv3705c and its homologous MSMEG_6251 in Mycobacterium smegmatis are tube-forming proteins in the mycobacterial envelope (TiME). Crystallographic and cryo-EM structures of these two proteins show that both proteins form rotationally symmetric rings. Two layers of TiME rings pack together in a tail-to-tail manner into a ring-shaped complex, which, in turn, stacks together to form tubes. M. smegmatis TiME was detected mainly in the cell wall and capsule. Knocking out the TiME gene markedly decreased the amount of secreted protein in the M. smegmatis culture medium, and expression of this gene in knocked-out strain partially restored the level of secreted protein. Our structure and functional data thus suggest that TiME forms a protein transport tube across the mycobacterial outer envelope.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiaoying Cai
- School of Life Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui, China
| | - Lei Liu
- Hefei National Laboratory for Physical Sciences at the Microscale, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui, China
| | - Chunhong Qiu
- School of Life Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui, China
| | - Chongzheng Wen
- Hefei National Laboratory for Physical Sciences at the Microscale, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui, China
| | - Yao He
- California NanoSystems Institute, University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA
- Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Molecular Genetics, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA
| | - Yanxiang Cui
- California NanoSystems Institute, University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA
| | - Siyu Li
- School of Life Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui, China
| | - Xuan Zhang
- Institute of Health Science, Institutes of Physical Science and Information Technology, Anhui University, Hefei, Anhui, China
| | - Longhua Zhang
- School of Life Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui, China
| | - Changlin Tian
- School of Life Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui, China
| | - Lijun Bi
- Institute of Biophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Z Hong Zhou
- California NanoSystems Institute, University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA.
- Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Molecular Genetics, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA
| | - Weimin Gong
- School of Life Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui, China.
- Hefei National Laboratory for Physical Sciences at the Microscale, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui, China
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Hearne LJ, Mill RD, Keane BP, Repovš G, Anticevic A, Cole MW. Activity flow underlying abnormalities in brain activations and cognition in schizophrenia. Sci Adv 2021; 7:7/29/eabf2513. [PMID: 34261649 PMCID: PMC8279516 DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abf2513] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/14/2020] [Accepted: 05/28/2021] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
Cognitive dysfunction is a core feature of many brain disorders, including schizophrenia (SZ), and has been linked to aberrant brain activations. However, it is unclear how these activation abnormalities emerge. We propose that aberrant flow of brain activity across functional connectivity (FC) pathways leads to altered activations that produce cognitive dysfunction in SZ. We tested this hypothesis using activity flow mapping, an approach that models the movement of task-related activity between brain regions as a function of FC. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging data from SZ individuals and healthy controls during a working memory task, we found that activity flow models accurately predict aberrant cognitive activations across multiple brain networks. Within the same framework, we simulated a connectivity-based clinical intervention, predicting specific treatments that normalized brain activations and behavior in patients. Our results suggest that dysfunctional task-evoked activity flow is a large-scale network mechanism contributing to cognitive dysfunction in SZ.
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Affiliation(s)
- Luke J Hearne
- Center for Molecular and Behavioral Neuroscience, Rutgers University, Newark, NJ, USA.
| | - Ravi D Mill
- Center for Molecular and Behavioral Neuroscience, Rutgers University, Newark, NJ, USA
| | - Brian P Keane
- University Behavioral Health Care, Department of Psychiatry, and Center for Cognitive Science, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ, USA
- Departments of Psychiatry and Neuroscience, University of Rochester Medical Center, Rochester, NY, USA
| | - Grega Repovš
- Department of Psychology, University of Ljubljana, Aškerčeva 2, Ljubljana SI-1000, Slovenia
| | - Alan Anticevic
- Department of Psychiatry, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Michael W Cole
- Center for Molecular and Behavioral Neuroscience, Rutgers University, Newark, NJ, USA
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Davies NG, Abbott S, Barnard RC, Jarvis CI, Kucharski AJ, Munday JD, Pearson CAB, Russell TW, Tully DC, Washburne AD, Wenseleers T, Gimma A, Waites W, Wong KLM, van Zandvoort K, Silverman JD, Diaz-Ordaz K, Keogh R, Eggo RM, Funk S, Jit M, Atkins KE, Edmunds WJ. Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England. Science 2021; 372:eabg3055. [PMID: 33658326 PMCID: PMC8128288 DOI: 10.1126/science.abg3055] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1548] [Impact Index Per Article: 516.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/23/2020] [Accepted: 02/26/2021] [Indexed: 12/12/2022]
Abstract
A severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant, VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), emerged in southeast England in September 2020 and is rapidly spreading toward fixation. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modeling approaches, we estimate that this variant has a 43 to 90% (range of 95% credible intervals, 38 to 130%) higher reproduction number than preexisting variants. A fitted two-strain dynamic transmission model shows that VOC 202012/01 will lead to large resurgences of COVID-19 cases. Without stringent control measures, including limited closure of educational institutions and a greatly accelerated vaccine rollout, COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths across England in the first 6 months of 2021 were projected to exceed those in 2020. VOC 202012/01 has spread globally and exhibits a similar transmission increase (59 to 74%) in Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nicholas G Davies
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
| | - Sam Abbott
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Rosanna C Barnard
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Christopher I Jarvis
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Adam J Kucharski
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - James D Munday
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Carl A B Pearson
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Timothy W Russell
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Damien C Tully
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | | | - Tom Wenseleers
- Lab of Socioecology and Social Evolution, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium
| | - Amy Gimma
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - William Waites
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Kerry L M Wong
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Kevin van Zandvoort
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Justin D Silverman
- College of Information Science and Technology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA
| | - Karla Diaz-Ordaz
- Centre for Statistical Methodology and Department of Medical Statistics, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Ruth Keogh
- Centre for Statistical Methodology and Department of Medical Statistics, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Rosalind M Eggo
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Sebastian Funk
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Mark Jit
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Katherine E Atkins
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Centre for Global Health, Usher Institute of Population Health Sciences and Informatics, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
| | - W John Edmunds
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
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