Effectiveness and durability of mRNA-1273 BA.4/BA.5 bivalent vaccine (mRNA-1273.222) against SARS-CoV-2 BA.4/BA.5 and XBB sublineages

Emerging SARS-CoV-2 sublineages continue to cause serious COVID-19 disease, but most individuals have not received any COVID-19 vaccine for >1 year. Assessment of long-term effectiveness of bivalent COVID-19 vaccines against circulating sublineages is important to inform the potential need for vaccination with updated vaccines. In this test-negative study at Kaiser Permanente Southern California, sequencing-confirmed BA.4/BA.5- or XBB-related SARS-CoV-2-positive cases (September 1, 2022 to June 30, 2023), were matched 1:3 to SARS-CoV-2-negative controls. We assessed mRNA-1273 bivalent relative (rVE) and absolute vaccine effectiveness (VE) compared to ≥2 or 0 doses of original monovalent vaccine, respectively. The rVE analysis included 20,966 cases and 62,898 controls. rVE (95%CI) against BA.4/BA.5 at 14-60 days and 121-180 days was 52.7% (46.9-57.8%) and 35.5% (-2.8-59.5%) for infection, and 59.3% (49.7-67.0%) and 33.2% (-28.2-68.0%) for Emergency Department/Urgent Care (ED/UC) encounters. For BA.4/BA.5-related hospitalizations, rVE was 71.3% (44.9-85.1%) and 52.0% (-1.2-77.3%) at 14-60 days and 61-120 days, respectively. rVE against XBB at 14-60 days and 121-180 days was 48.8% (33.4-60.7%) and -3.9% (-18.1-11.3%) for infection, 70.7% (52.4-82.0%) and 15.7% (-6.0-33.2%) for ED/UC encounters, and 87.9% (43.8-97.4%) and 57.1% (17.0-77.8%) for hospitalization. VE and subgroup analyses (age, immunocompromised status, previous SARS-CoV-2 infection) results were similar to rVE analyses. rVE of mRNA-1273 bivalent vaccine against BA.4/BA.5 and XBB infections, ED/UC encounters, and hospitalizations waned over time. Periodic revaccination with vaccines targeting emerging variants may be important in reducing COVID-19 morbidity and mortality.

Evolution of SARS-CoV-2: BA.4/BA.5 Variants Continues to Pose New Challenges

The acquisition of a high number of mutations, notably, the gain of two mutations L452R and F486V in RBD, and the ability to evade vaccine/natural infection-induced immunity suggests that Omicron is continuing to use "immune-escape potential" as an evolutionary space to maintain a selection advantage within the population. Despite the low hospitalizations and lower death rate, the surges by these variants may offset public health measures and disrupt health care facilities as seen recently in Portugal and the USA. Interestingly these BA.4/BA.5 variants have been found to be more severe than the earlier-emerged Omicron variants. We believe that aggressive COVID-19 surveillance using affordable testing strategies might actually help understand the evolution and transmission pattern of new variants. The sudden dip in reporting of new cases in some of the low- and middle-income countries is an alarming situation and needs to be addressed as this could lead to undetected transmission of future variants of interest/concern of SARS-CoV-2 in large population settings, including advent of a 'super' virus. It would be interesting to examine the possible role/influence, if any, of the two different kinds of vaccines, the spike protein-based versus the inactivated whole virus, in the evolution of BA.4/BA.5.

Rapid decline in vaccine-boosted neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant

The Omicron variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) exhibits reduced susceptibility to vaccine-induced neutralizing antibodies, requiring a boost to generate protective immunity. We assess the magnitude and short-term durability of neutralizing antibodies after homologous and heterologous boosting with mRNA and Ad26.COV2.S vaccines. All prime-boost combinations substantially increase the neutralization titers to Omicron, although the boosted titers decline rapidly within 2 months from the peak response compared with boosted titers against the prototypic D614G variant. Boosted Omicron neutralization titers are substantially higher for homologous mRNA vaccine boosting, and for heterologous mRNA and Ad26.COV2.S vaccine boosting, compared with homologous Ad26.COV2.S boosting. Homologous mRNA vaccine boosting generates nearly equivalent neutralizing activity against Omicron sublineages BA.1, BA.2, and BA.3 but modestly reduced neutralizing activity against BA.2.12.1 and BA.4/BA.5 compared with BA.1. These results have implications for boosting requirements to protect against Omicron and future variants of SARS-CoV-2. This trial was conducted under ClincalTrials.gov: NCT04889209.