LULC Assessment and Green Infrastructure Conservation in residential neighborhoods: a case of FESTAC Town, Lagos, Nigeria

In addressing environmental challenges and ecosystem resilience, green networks are preserved, repaired, and rebuilt by green infrastructure. However, urbanization effects have seen urban land form undergo significant modifications over time due to different anthropogenic activities. The objective of this study is to evaluate the land use and land cover (LULC) change in FESTAC Town, a government-owned residential neighborhood in Lagos, with the goal of recommending interventions for conserving green infrastructure. The study mainly focuses on employing remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) techniques to detect alterations in land use in FESTAC Town from 1984 to 2022. The ERDAS Imagine software was utilized, employing a supervised classification-maximum likelihood algorithm, to identify changes in LULC. Additionally, an accuracy assessment was conducted using ground truth data. Findings from this study show significant increase in built-up areas at the cost of loss in dense vegetation over a 38-year period thereby, putting pressure on available green spaces. In terms of the area under each LULC category, most significant changes have been observed in built-up area (410.86%), bare surface (- 79.79%), sparse vegetation (- 53.42%), and dense vegetation (- 31.83%). Effective conservation strategies should focus on promoting connectivity between green spaces, engaging stakeholders in the planning and implementation of green infrastructure projects.

Application of the UNAIDS Incidence Patterns Model to Determine the Distribution of New HIV Infection in Lagos State, Nigeria

BACKGROUND

Identifying patterns in the distribution of new HIV infections in the population is critical for HIV programmatic interventions. This study aimed to determine the distribution of New HIV infection by applying the incidence patterns mathematical model to data from Lagos state.

METHODS

The incidence patterns model (IPM) software is a mathematical model developed by UNAIDS to estimate the demographic and epidemic patterns of HIV infections. This model was adapted in Lagos state to predict the distribution of new HIV infections among specified risk groups in the next 12 months.

RESULTS

The IPM predicted a total HIV incidence of 37 cases per 100 000 individuals (3979 new infections) will occur among the 15 to 49 subpopulations. The results also showed that sero-concordant HIV-negative couples with external partners (29%), female sex workers (26%), men-having-sex-with-men (18%), and previously married females (6%) accounted for the majority of the estimated new HIV infections. Overall, key populations constitute almost half (48%) of the estimated number of new HIV infections.

CONCLUSION

The study helped to identify the population groups contributing significantly to new HIV infections. Therefore, priority interventions should be focused on these groups.

Spatial and temporal analysis of road traffic crashes and ambulance responses in Lagos state, Nigeria

BACKGROUND

Sub-Saharan African countries, Nigeria inclusive, are constrained by grossly limited access to quality pre-hospital trauma care services (PTCS). Findings from pragmatic approaches that explore spatial and temporal trends of past road crashes can inform novel interventions. To improve access to PTCS and reduce burden of road traffic injuries we explored geospatial trends of past emergency responses to road traffic crashes (RTCs) by Lagos State Ambulance Service (LASAMBUS), assessed efficiency of responses, and outcomes of interventions by local government areas (LGAs) of crash.

METHODS

Using descriptive cross-sectional design and REDcap we explored pre-hospital care data of 1220 crash victims documented on LASAMBUS intervention forms from December 2017 to May 2018. We analyzed trends in days and times of calls, demographics of victims, locations of crashes and causes of delayed emergency responses. Assisted with STATA 16 and ArcGIS pro we conducted descriptive statistics and mapping of crash metrics including spatial and temporal relationships between times of the day, seasons of year, and crash LGA population density versus RTCs incidence. Descriptive analysis and mapping were used to assess relationships between 'Causes of Delayed response' and respective crash LGAs, and between Response Times and crash LGAs.

RESULTS

Incidences of RTCs were highest across peak commuting hours (07:00-12:59 and 13:00-18:59), rainy season and harmattan (foggy) months, and densely populated LGAs. Five urban LGAs accounted for over half of RTCs distributions: Eti-Osa (14.7%), Ikeja (14.4%), Kosofe (9.9%), Ikorodu (9.7%), and Alimosho (6.6%). On intervention forms with a Cause of Delay, Traffic Congestion (60%), and Poor Description (17.8%), had associations with LGA distribution. Two densely populated urban LGAs, Agege and Apapa were significantly associated with Traffic Congestion as a Cause of Delay. LASAMBUS was able to address crash in only 502 (36.8%) of the 1220 interventions. Other notable outcomes include: No Crash (false calls) (26.6%), and Crash Already Addressed (22.17%).

CONCLUSIONS

Geospatial analysis of past road crashes in Lagos state offered key insights into spatial and temporal trends of RTCs across LGAs, and identified operational constraints of state-organized PTCS and factors associated with delayed emergency responses. Findings can inform programmatic interventions to improve trauma care outcomes.

Clinical presentation of COVID-19-positive and -negative patients in Lagos Nigeria: A comparative study

Background

A lot has been documented about the pathophysiology and clinical presentation of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We compared the clinical features of real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase-chain-reaction (RT-PCR) confirmed COVID-19 positive and negative patients admitted in Lagos State.

Methods

Medical records of all patients admitted in 15 isolation centres across Lagos state between 27^th February 2020 and 30^th September 2020, were abstracted and reviewed. We compared the clinical features, co-morbidities and clinical outcomes of COVID-19 positive and negative patients.

Results

A total of 3157 records of patients admitted in 15 isolation centres in Lagos State were reviewed of which 302 (9.6%) tested negative to RT-PCR COVID-19. There was no gender difference between COVID-19 positive and negative patients (P = 0.687). The average age of the negative patients was higher (46.8 ± 18.3 years) than positive patients (41.9 ± 15.5 years) (P < 0.001). A higher proportion of the COVID-19 negative patients had co-morbidity (38.1% vs. 27.8%), were symptomatic (67.5% vs. 44.6%) and higher mortality (21.9% vs. 6.6%) than positive patients (P < 0.001). The percentages with hypertension (26.2% vs. 21.0%, P = 0.038), diabetes (17.2% vs. 9.4%, P < 0.001), cardiovascular disease (2.3% vs. 0.9%, P < 0.029) and cancer (2.3% vs. 0.5%, P < 0.002) were more among patients without COVID-19. More patients without COVID-19 presented with fever (36.1% vs. 18.8%), cough (33.7% vs. 23.1%) and breathlessness (40.8% vs. 16.1%) than the positive patients (P < 0.001).

Conclusion

Anosmia and dysgeusia were strongly associated with COVID-19. Clinical decision-making should only be used to prioritise testing and isolation of patients suspected to have COVID-19, especially in settings with limited access to diagnostic kits.

10-Year Mortality Pattern Among Cancer Patients in Lagos State University Teaching Hospital, Ikeja, Lagos

Background

Globally, cancer is a major leading health problem with an estimated 10 million incidences and 6 million cancer deaths annually. In Nigeria, an estimated 72,000 cancer deaths occur annually, and 102,000 new cases are diagnosed from its population of 200 million people. These are, however, estimates, it is necessary to document the yearly trends and patterns of cancer mortality with regards to the different regions in the country.

Methodology

we conducted this study at the Lagos State University Teaching hospital (LASUTH), Ikeja, Lagos to document mortality patterns from 2009 to 2018. Data extracted included those from the patient's case notes, admission and death registers, and death certificates. we also had records from the hospital records department and medical wards. We then documented cancer mortality over the study period.

Results

A total number of 6,592 deaths were recorded over ten years, and 1,133 cases were cancer-related deaths. This number puts the percentage of cancer-related deaths at 17.2%. Male patients accounted for 54.0%, and female patients are 46.0%. Breast cancer accounted for the highest mortality, followed by prostate cancer. The highest number of deaths were recorded in 2010 at 821, followed by 2011 at 799, 2015 at 780, and the least in 2017 at 513. There is also a significant general increase in odds of mortality with an increase in decades of life.

Conclusion

This study shows that about one in five deaths, over the last ten years, from this tertiary institution, is related to a cancer diagnosis. Even though a yearly decline in the number of cancer deaths was noticed, probably due to increased awareness and governmental intervention, the percentage still remains high.

Development Outcomes of Fadama III among Fish Farmers in Nigeria: Evidence from Lagos State

This paper is focussed on the analysis of development outcomes of Fadama III programme among fish farmers in Nigeria with evidence from Lagos state. Random sampling technique was used to select 141 fish farmers from the Fadama III participants and non-participants from three agricultural divisions. Data were collected through structured questionnaire and analysed using descriptive statistics. While propensity score matching approach was employed to estimate the Average Treatment Effect on the Treated (ATT) using productivity level as an outcome, double-difference approach and Gini coefficient were used to estimate the project's impact on the income of the beneficiaries. The double difference estimator showed that the fish farmers who participated in Fadama III programme had 62.4% increase in their income. Education level, income level before the programme and land ownership were factors that positively influenced the probability of participating in Fadama III. The ATT estimates showed that the intervention/programme had a positive impact on the production level of participants to the tune of 2.15 tonnes per year. The Gini coefficient also showed that the fish farmers were better-off as their Gini-index reduced from 0.755 to 0.489 after participation in Fadama III. Fish farming was found to be generally profitable in the study area with a net profit of ₦7.36 million per annum while the Benefit Cost (B/C) ratio was 3.95. The income of fish farmers, after participation in Fadama III project, was positively and significantly influenced by the occupation and income of the farmers before participation in the project. The beneficiaries/participants surpassed the target of 40% increase in income set for the project. The beneficiaries were therefore better-off after participating in the programme. It is recommended that other farmers having no access to large income should be encouraged to participate and be a part of the ongoing Fadama III additional financing initiative.

Satisfaction With Services Among Attendees of Physiotherapy Outpatient Clinics in Tertiary Hospitals in Lagos State

Aim:

To determine outpatients’ satisfaction with physiotherapy services in tertiary hospitals in Lagos State, Nigeria.

Method:

This cross-sectional study utilized a simple random sampling method to recruit 284 participants. Participants responded to a 2-part structured questionnaire with 33-items on a 5-point Likert-type scale. Participants were asked questions about their satisfaction with physiotherapy services, staff attitudes, and the accessibility of outpatient physiotherapy clinics. Data were analyzed using descriptive analysis and χ².

Results:

About 28.8% of the participants were satisfied or very satisfied with the location of the outpatient physiotherapy clinics. The majority of the participants were satisfied or very satisfied with these physiotherapy services in maintaining privacy (86.2%), scheduling convenient clinic appointments (78.2%), prompt scheduling of the first physiotherapy clinic appointment (74.6%) and subsequent visits (78.9%), and providing a calm/relaxing atmosphere (90.1%). While 22.5% of the participants were satisfied or very satisfied with the waiting time in these physiotherapy clinics, 86.3% and 97.9% were satisfied or very satisfied with staff attitudes and the cost of the therapy, respectively. Almost all (97.9%) the participants reported being satisfied or very satisfied with their overall experience in the physiotherapy clinics. While there was an association between marital and educational status with overall satisfaction scores, age and gender showed no association.

Conclusion:

Our findings suggest that patients attending the outpatient physiotherapy clinics in tertiary hospitals in Lagos State, Nigeria, were satisfied or very satisfied with the domain that measured overall satisfaction. Strategies to reduce the waiting time in these physiotherapy clinics and to enhance physical accessibility of the physiotherapy clinics are encouraged.

Climate change in Lagos state, Nigeria: what really changed?

Our study revealed periodicities of 2.3 and 2.25 years in wet and dry seasons and periodicities of 2 to 5 years on seasonal and annual timescales. Minimum temperature (Tmin), maximum temperature (Tmax) and evaporation recorded increases of 2.47, 1.37 and 28.37 %, respectively, but a reduction of 19.58 % in rainfall on decadal timescale. Periodicity of 8 to 12 years was also observed in annual Tmax. Cramer's test indicated a warming trend with significant Tmax increase in February, April, July, August, October and November during 2000-2009 on decadal monthly timescale, a significant decline in Summer rainfall but significant Tmax increase in Spring, Autumn and Winter on decadal seasonal timescale. The low correlation of rainfall with temperature parameters and evaporation indicates that advection of moisture into Lagos State seems to be the dominant mechanism controlling rainfall within the State alongside other tropical and extra-tropical factors. In addition, our study revealed that the persistent state of minimum temperature often precedes the arrival and reversal of the phase of maximum temperature. Furthermore, our study also revealed that extreme and high variable rainfalls, which are associated with the increased warming trend, had periodicities of 1 to 3 years with a probability of 86.45 % of occurring every 3 years between April and September. It is recommended that government and private sector should give financial and technical supports to climate researches in order to appropriately inform policy making to improve the adaptive capacity and resilience of Lagos State against climate change impacts and guard against maladaptation.