Rapid migration of Mongolian oak into the southern Asian boreal forest

The migration of trees induced by climatic warming has been observed at many alpine treelines and boreal-tundra ecotones, but the migration of temperate trees into southern boreal forest remains less well documented. We conducted a field investigation across an ecotone of temperate and boreal forests in northern Greater Khingan Mountains of northeast China. Our analysis demonstrates that Mongolian oak (Quercus mongolica), an important temperate tree species, has migrated rapidly into southern boreal forest in synchrony with significant climatic warming over the past century. The average rate of migration is estimated to be 12.0 ± 1.0 km decade-1 , being slightly slower than the movement of isotherms (14.7 ± 6.4 km decade-1 ). The migration rate of Mongolian oak is the highest observed among migratory temperate trees (average rate 4.0 ± 1.0 km decade-1 ) and significantly higher than the rates of tree migration at boreal-tundra ecotones (0.9 ± 0.4 km decade-1 ) and alpine treelines (0.004 ± 0.003 km decade-1 ). Compared with the coexisting dominant boreal tree species, Dahurian larch (Larix gmelinii), temperate Mongolian oak is observed to have significantly lower capacity for light acquisition, comparable water-use efficiency but stronger capacity to utilize nutrients especially the most limiting nutrient, nitrogen. In the context of climatic warming, and in addition to a high seed dispersal capacity and potential thermal niche differences, the advantage of nutrient utilization, reflected by foliar elementomes and stable nitrogen isotope ratios, is also likely a key mechanism for Mongolian oak to coexist with Dahurian larch and facilitate its migration toward boreal forest. These findings highlight a rapid deborealization of southern Asian boreal forest in response to climatic warming.

Chlorophyll fluorescence variation in two Mediterranean forest species over a 21-year drought treatment period

The Mediterranean is among the regions predicted to be most affected by climate change due to rising temperatures and increasing frequency as well as intensity of extreme weather events, such as drought. These shifts in climatic conditions might lead to changes in species community composition by enabling the increase of drought-tolerant species at the expense of less tolerant ones. This hypothesis was tested in the current study using chlorophyll fluorescence data from a 21-year precipitation exclusion experiment in a Mediterranean forest for two co-dominant Quercus ilex L. and Phillyrea latifolia L. species with contrasting low and high levels of drought tolerance, respectively. The maximum potential quantum efficiency of photosystem II (PSII) (Fv/Fm), photochemical efficiency of PSII (yield) and non-photochemical quenching (NPQ) varied seasonally. The Fv/Fm and NPQ levels were positively correlated with air temperature and standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI), whereas yield, which was greater under drought treatment, was negatively associated with vapor pressure deficit and SPEI. The Fv/Fm values showed similar increase in the two species over the 21-year study period regardless of treatment and in parallel to progressive warming. By contrast, yield values were higher in Q. ilex than in P. latifolia, while NPQ values were higher in P. latifolia than in Q. ilex. Notably, high yield values were also observed in the drought-treated plots. Throughout the study, plants in the drought-treated plots exhibited decreased basal area, leaf biomass and aerial cover due to high stem mortality. In addition, a continuous increase in temperature was detected in summer and autumn, which might explain the observed increase in Fv/Fm values over the study period. Higher yield and lower NPQ detected in Q. ilex could be attributed to less competition for resources in the drought-treated plots and acclimation of Q. ilex plants over the study period. Our results indicate that reduction in stem density could improve forest resilience to climate change-induced drought conditions.

Global warming is increasing the discrepancy between green (actual) and thermal (potential) seasons of temperate trees

Over the past decades, global warming has led to a lengthening of the time window during which temperatures remain favorable for carbon assimilation and tree growth, resulting in a lengthening of the green season. The extent to which forest green seasons have tracked the lengthening of this favorable period under climate warming, however, has not been quantified to date. Here, we used remote sensing data and long-term ground observations of leaf-out and coloration for six dominant species of European trees at 1773 sites, for a total of 6060 species-site combinations, during 1980-2016 and found that actual green season extensions (GS: 3.1 ± 0.1 day decade^-1 ) lag four times behind extensions of the potential thermal season (TS: 12.6 ± 0.1 day decade^-1 ). Similar but less pronounced differences were obtained using satellite-derived vegetation phenology observations, that is, a lengthening of 4.4 ± 0.13 and 7.5 ± 0.13 day decade^-1 for GS and TS, respectively. This difference was mainly driven by the larger advance in the onset of the thermal season compared to the actual advance of leaf-out dates (spring mismatch: 7.2 ± 0.1 day decade^-1 ), but to a less extent caused by a phenological mismatch between GS and TS in autumn (2.4 ± 0.1 day decade^-1 ). Our results showed that forest trees do not linearly track the new thermal window extension, indicating more complex interactions between winter and spring temperatures and photoperiod and a justification of demonstrating that using more sophisticated models that include the influence of chilling and photoperiod is needed to accurately predict spring phenological changes under warmer climate. They urge caution if such mechanisms are omitted to predict, for example, how vegetative health and growth, species distribution and crop yields will change in the future.

Radiation-constrained boundaries cause nonuniform responses of the carbon uptake phenology to climatic warming in the Northern Hemisphere

Climatic warming has lengthened the photosynthetically active season in recent decades, thus affecting the functioning and biogeochemistry of ecosystems, the global carbon cycle and climate. Temperature response of carbon uptake phenology varies spatially and temporally, even within species, and daily total intensity of radiation may play a role. We empirically modelled the thresholds of temperature and radiation under which daily carbon uptake is constrained in the temperate and cold regions of the Northern Hemisphere, which include temperate forests, boreal forests, alpine and tundra biomes. The two-dimensionality of the temperature-radiation constraint was reduced to one single variable, θ, which represents the angle in a polar coordinate system for the temperature-radiation observations during the start and end of the growing season. We found that radiation will constrain the trend towards longer growing seasons with future warming but differently during the start and end of season and depending on the biome type and region. We revealed that radiation is a major factor limiting photosynthetic activity that constrains the phenology response to temperature during the end-of-season. In contrast, the start of the carbon uptake is overall highly sensitive to temperature but not constrained by radiation at the hemispheric scale. This study thus revealed that while at the end-of-season the phenology response to warming is constrained at the hemispheric scale, at the start-of-season the advance of spring onset may continue, even if it is at a slower pace.

The effect of resource limitation on the temperature dependence of mosquito population fitness

Laboratory-derived temperature dependencies of life-history traits are increasingly being used to make mechanistic predictions for how climatic warming will affect vector-borne disease dynamics, partially by affecting abundance dynamics of the vector population. These temperature-trait relationships are typically estimated from juvenile populations reared on optimal resource supply, even though natural populations of vectors are expected to experience variation in resource supply, including intermittent resource limitation. Using laboratory experiments on the mosquito Aedes aegypti, a principal arbovirus vector, combined with stage-structured population modelling, we show that low-resource supply in the juvenile life stages significantly depresses the vector's maximal population growth rate across the entire temperature range (22-32°C) and causes it to peak at a lower temperature than at high-resource supply. This effect is primarily driven by an increase in juvenile mortality and development time, combined with a decrease in adult size with temperature at low-resource supply. Our study suggests that most projections of temperature-dependent vector abundance and disease transmission are likely to be biased because they are based on traits measured under optimal resource supply. Our results provide compelling evidence for future studies to consider resource supply when predicting the effects of climate and habitat change on vector-borne disease transmission, disease vectors and other arthropods.

Spatial heterogeneity of tree diversity response to climate warming in montane forests

Many studies reported biotic change along a continental warming gradient. However, the temporal and spatial change of tree diversity and their sensitivity to climate warming might differ from region to region. Understanding of the variation among studies with regard to the magnitude of such biotic changes is minimal, especially in montane ecosystems. Our aim is to better understand changes in spatial heterogeneity and temporal dynamics of mountain tree communities under climate warming over the past four decades. In 2017, we resurveyed and recorded all tree species from 107 long-term monitoring plots that were first studied between 1974 and 1976. These plots were located in montane forests in the Giant Panda National Park (GPNP), China. Our results showed that spatial differences were found in tree species diversity changes response to mean annual temperature change over the past four decades. Tree species richness increased significantly under climate warming in Minshan (MS) and Xiaoxiangling (XXL) with higher warming rate than Qionglai (QLS) and Liangshan (LS). The trees species diversity in MS and XXL were more sensitive to climatic warming. MS and XXL should receive priority protection in the next conservation plan of the GPNP. The GPNP should avoid taking a "one-size-fits-all" approach for diversity conservation due to spatial heterogeneity in plant community dynamics.

Extending the Cultivation Area of Pecan (Carya illinoinensis) Toward the South in Southeastern Subtropical China May Cause Increased Cold Damage

Pecan (Carya illinoinensis) is an important nut tree species in its native areas in temperate and subtropical North America, and as an introduced crop in subtropical southeastern China as well. We used process-based modeling to assess the effects of climatic warming in southeastern China on the leaf-out phenology of pecan seedlings and the subsequent risk of "false springs," i.e., damage caused by low temperatures occurring as a result of prematurely leafing out. In order to maximize the biological realism of the model used in scenario simulations, we developed the model on the basis of experiments explicitly designed for determining the responses modeled. The model showed reasonable internal accuracy when calibrated against leaf-out observations in a whole-tree chamber (WTC) experiment with nine different natural-like fluctuating temperature treatments. The model was used to project the timing of leaf-out in the period 2022-2099 under the warming scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in southeastern China. Two locations in the main pecan cultivation area in the northern subtropical zone and one location south of the main cultivation area were addressed. Generally, an advancing trend of leaf-out was projected for all the three locations under both warming scenarios, but in the southern location, a delay was projected under RCP8.5 in many years during the first decades of the 21st century. In the two northern locations, cold damage caused by false springs was projected to occur once in 15-26 years at most, suggesting that pecan cultivation can be continued relatively safely in these two locations. Paradoxically, more frequent cold damage was projected for the southern location than for the two northern locations. The results for the southern location also differed from those for the northern locations in that more frequent cold damage was projected under the RCP4.5 warming scenario (once in 6 years) than under the RCP8.5 scenario (once in 11 years) in the southern location. Due to the uncertainties of the model applied, our conclusions need to be re-examined in an additional experimental study and further model development based on it; but on the basis of our present results, we do not recommend starting large-scale pecan cultivation in locations south of the present main pecan cultivation area in southeastern subtropical China.

Shortened temperature-relevant period of spring leaf-out in temperate-zone trees

Temperature during a particular period prior to spring leaf-out, the temperature-relevant period (TRP), is a strong determinant of the leaf-out date in temperate-zone trees. Climatic warming has substantially advanced leaf-out dates in temperate biomes worldwide, but its effect on the beginning and length of the TRP has not yet been explored, despite its direct relevance for phenology modeling. Using 1,551 species-site combinations of long-term (1951-2016) in situ observations on six tree species (namely, Aesculus hippocastanum, Alnus glutinosa, Betula pendula, Fagus sylvatica, Fraxinus excelsior, and Quercus robur) in central Europe, we found that the advancing leaf-out was accompanied by a shortening of the TRP. On average across all species and sites, the length of the TRP significantly decreased by 23% (p < .05), from 60 ± 4 days during 1951-1965 to 47 ± 4 days during 2002-2016. Importantly, the average start date of the TRP did not vary significantly over the study period (March 2-5, DOY = 61-64), which could be explained by sufficient chilling over the study period in the regions considered. The advanced leaf-out date with unchanged beginning of the TRP can be explained by the faster accumulation of the required heat due to climatic warming, which overcompensated for the retarding effect of shortening daylength on bud development. This study shows that climate warming has not yet affected the mean TRP starting date in the study region, implying that phenology modules in global land surface models might be reliable assuming a fixed TRP starting date at least for the temperate central Europe. Field warming experiments do, however, remain necessary to test to what extent the length of TRP will continue to shorten and whether the starting date will remain stable under future climate conditions.

Contrasting responses of steppe Stipa ssp. to warming and precipitation variability

Climate change, characterized by warming and precipitation variability, restricted the growth of plants in arid and semiarid areas, and various functional traits are impacted differently. Comparing responses of functional traits to warming and precipitation variability and determining critical water threshold of dominate steppe grasses from Inner Mongolia facilitates the identification and monitoring of water stress effects. A combination of warming (ambient temperature, +1.5°C and +2.0°C) and varying precipitation (-30%, -15%, ambient, +15%, and +30%) manipulation experiments were performed on four Stipa species (S. baicalensis, S. bungeana, S. grandis, and S. breviflora) from Inner Mongolia steppe. The results showed that the functional traits of the four grasses differed in their responses to precipitation, but they shared common sensitive traits (root/shoot ratio, R/S, and specific leaf area; SLA) under ambient temperature condition. Warming increased the response of the four grasses to changing precipitation, and these differences in functional traits resulted in changes to their total biomass, with leaf area, SLA, and R/S making the largest contributions. Critical water thresholds of the four grasses were identified, and warming led to their higher optimum precipitation requirements. The four steppe grasses were able to adapt better to mild drought (summer precipitation decreased by 12%-28%) when warming 1.5°C rather than 2.0°C. These results indicated that if the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 1.5°C will be accomplished, this will increase the probability for sustained viability of the Stipa steppes in the next 50-100 years.

Insufficient Chilling Effects Vary among Boreal Tree Species and Chilling Duration

Insufficient chilling resulting from rising winter temperatures associated with climate warming has been an area of particular interest in boreal and temperate regions where a period of cool temperatures in fall and winter is required to break plant dormancy. In this study, we examined the budburst and growth of trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.), balsam poplar (Populus balsamifera L.), white birch (Betula papyrifera Marsh.), black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.), white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss), jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.), and lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex. Loud.) seedlings subjected to typical northern Ontario, Canada, spring conditions in climate chambers after different exposures to natural chilling. Results indicate that chilling requirements (cumulative weighted chilling hours) differed substantially among the seven species, ranging from 300 to 500 h for spruce seedlings to more than 1100 h for trembling aspen and lodgepole pine. Only spruce seedlings had fulfilled their chilling requirements before December 31, whereas the other species continued chilling well into March and April. Species with lower chilling requirements needed more heat accumulation for budburst and vice versa. Insufficient chilling delayed budburst but only extremely restricted chilling hours (<400) resulted in abnormal budburst and growth, including reduced needle and shoot expansion, early budburst in lower crowns, and erratic budburst on lower stems and roots. Effects, however, depended on both the species' chilling requirements and the chilling-heat relationship. Among the seven tree species examined, trembling aspen is most likely to be affected by reduced chilling accumulation possible under future climate scenarios, followed by balsam poplar, white birch, lodgepole pine, and jack pine. Black and white spruce are least likely to be affected by changes in chilling hours.

Three times greater weight of daytime than of night-time temperature on leaf unfolding phenology in temperate trees

The phenology of spring leaf unfolding plays a key role in the structure and functioning of ecosystems. The classical concept of heat requirement (growing degree days) for leaf unfolding was developed hundreds of years ago, but this model does not include the recently reported greater importance of daytime than night-time temperature. A manipulative experiment on daytime vs night-time warming with saplings of three species of temperate deciduous trees was conducted and a Bayesian method was applied to explore the different effects of daytime and night-time temperatures on spring phenology. We found that both daytime and night-time warming significantly advanced leaf unfolding, but the sensitivities to increased daytime and night-time temperatures differed significantly. Trees were most sensitive to daytime warming (7.4 ± 0.9, 4.8 ± 0.3 and 4.8 ± 0.2 d advancement per degree Celsius warming (d °C^-1 ) for birch, oak and beech, respectively) and least sensitive to night-time warming (5.5 ± 0.9, 3.3 ± 0.3 and 2.1 ± 0.9 d °C^-1 ). Interestingly, a Bayesian analysis found that the impact of daytime temperature on leaf unfolding was approximately three times higher than that of night-time temperatures. Night-time global temperature is increasing faster than daytime temperature, so model projections of future spring phenology should incorporate the effects of these different temperatures.

Trends toward an earlier peak of the growing season in Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes

Changes in peak photosynthesis timing (PPT) could substantially change the seasonality of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Spring PPT in dry regions has been documented for some individual plant species on a stand scale, but both the spatio-temporal pattern of shifting PPT on a continental scale and its determinants remain unclear. Here, we use satellite measurements of vegetation greenness to find that the majority of Northern Hemisphere, mid-latitude vegetated area experienced a trend toward earlier PPT during 1982-2012, with significant trends of an average of 0.61 day yr(-1) across 19.4% of areas. These shifts correspond to increased annual accumulation of growing degree days (GDD) due to warming and are most highly concentrated in the eastern United States and Europe. Earlier mean PPT is generally a trait common among areas with summer temperatures higher than 27.6 ± 2.9 °C, summer precipitation lower than 84.2 ± 41.5 mm, and fraction of cold season precipitation greater than 89.2 ± 1.5%. The trends toward earlier PPT discovered here have co-occurred with overall increases in vegetation greenness throughout the growing season, suggesting that summer drought is not a dominant driver of these trends. These results imply that continued warming may facilitate continued shifts toward earlier PPT and cause these trends to become more pervasive, with important implications for terrestrial carbon, water, nutrient, and energy budgets.

Daylength and thermal time responses of budburst during dormancy release in some northern deciduous trees

Dormancy release and thermal time to budburst as affected by duration of chilling outdoors, followed by different flushing temperatures and daylengths in a phytotron, were studied in cuttings of several northern tree species. In Betula pubescens, B. pendula and Prunus padus vegetative buds were released from dormancy already in December, in Populus tremula in January, whereas in Alnus incana and A. glutinosa dormancy was not released until February. Thermal time (day degrees >0°C) to budburst decreased non-linearily with increasing duration of chilling (i. e. duration outdoors), and the slope of this relationship differed among species. The estimated effective base temperature for accumulation of thermal time varied from + 1°C in P. tremula to -4°C in P. padus. The use of 0°C as base temperature is recommended. Long days reduced the thermal time to budburst at all flushing temperatures (9, 15 and 21°C) in all the above species and in Corylus avellana, whereas Sorbus aucuparia and Rubus idaeus showed no daylength response. Since the chilling requirement of all species was far exceeded even in a winter with January-March temperatures 6.5°C above normal, it is concluded that under Scandinavian conditions, the main effect of climatic warming would be earlier budburst and, associated with that, a longer growing season and increased risk of spring frost injury.