Will Absolute Risk Estimation for Time to Next Screen Work for an Asian Mammography Screening Population?

Personalized breast cancer risk profiling has the potential to promote shared decision-making and improve compliance with routine screening. We assessed the Gail model's performance in predicting the short-term (2- and 5-year) and the long-term (10- and 15-year) absolute risks in 28,234 asymptomatic Asian women. Absolute risks were calculated using different relative risk estimates and Breast cancer incidence and mortality rates (White, Asian-American, or the Singapore Asian population). Using linear models, we tested the association of absolute risk and age at breast cancer occurrence. Model discrimination was moderate (AUC range: 0.580-0.628). Calibration was better for longer-term prediction horizons (E/O_{long-term ranges}: 0.86-1.71; E/O_{short-term ranges}:1.24-3.36). Subgroup analyses show that the model underestimates risk in women with breast cancer family history, positive recall status, and prior breast biopsy, and overestimates risk in underweight women. The Gail model absolute risk does not predict the age of breast cancer occurrence. Breast cancer risk prediction tools performed better with population-specific parameters. Two-year absolute risk estimation is attractive for breast cancer screening programs, but the models tested are not suitable for identifying Asian women at increased risk within this short interval.

The Discriminatory Ability of Renalase and Biomarkers of Cardiac Remodeling for the Prediction of Ischemia in Chronic Heart Failure Patients With the Regard to the Ejection Fraction

Background: Renalase has been implicated in chronic heart failure (CHF); however, nothing is known about renalase discriminatory ability and prognostic evaluation. The aims of the study were to assess whether plasma renalase may be validated as a predictor of ischemia in CHF patients stratified to the left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and to determine its discriminatory ability coupled with biomarkers representing a range of heart failure (HF) pathophysiology: brain natriuretic peptide (BNP), soluble suppressor of tumorigenicity (sST2), galectin-3, growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15), syndecan-1, and cystatin C.

Methods: A total of 77 CHF patients were stratified according to the LVEF and were subjected to exercise stress testing. Receiver operating characteristic curves were constructed, and the areas under curves (AUC) were determined, whereas the calibration was evaluated using the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic. A DeLong test was performed to compare the AUCs of biomarkers.

Results: Independent predictors for ischemia in the total HF cohort were increased plasma concentrations: BNP (p = 0.008), renalase (p = 0.012), sST2 (p = 0.020), galectin-3 (p = 0.018), GDF-15 (p = 0.034), and syndecan-1 (p = 0.024), whereas after adjustments, only BNP (p = 0.010) demonstrated predictive power. In patients with LVEF <45% (HFrEF), independent predictors of ischemia were BNP (p = 0.001), renalase (p < 0.001), sST2 (p = 0.004), galectin-3 (p = 0.003), GDF-15 (p = 0.001), and syndecan-1 (p < 0.001). The AUC of BNP (0.837) was statistically higher compared to those of sST2 (DeLong test: p = 0.042), syndecan-1 (DeLong: p = 0.022), and cystatin C (DeLong: p = 0.022). The AUCs of renalase (0.753), galectin-3 (0.726), and GDF-15 (0.735) were similar and were non-inferior compared to BNP, regarding ischemia prediction. In HFrEF patients, the AUC of BNP (0.980) was statistically higher compared to those of renalase (DeLong: p < 0.001), sST2 (DeLong: p < 0.004), galectin-3 (DeLong: p < 0.001), GDF-15 (DeLong: p = 0.001), syndecan-1 (DeLong: p = 0.009), and cystatin C (DeLong: p = 0.001). The AUC of renalase (0.814) was statistically higher compared to those of galectin-3 (DeLong: p = 0.014) and GDF-15 (DeLong: p = 0.046) and similar to that of sST2. No significant results were obtained in the patients with LVEF >45%.

Conclusion: Plasma renalase concentration provided significant discrimination for the prediction of ischemia in patients with CHF and appeared to have similar discriminatory potential to that of BNP. Although further confirmatory studies are warranted, renalase seems to be a relevant biomarker for ischemia prediction, implying its potential contribution to ischemia-risk stratification.

Trabecular bone score improves fracture risk assessment in glucocorticoid-induced osteoporosis

OBJECTIVE

To analyse the clinical utility of trabecular bone score (TBS) evaluation for fracture risk assessment in glucocorticoid (GC)-treated patients compared with BMD assessment.

METHODS

One hundred and twenty-seven patients on GC treatment were included [mean age 62 (18) years, 63% women] in this cross-sectional study. The medical history, anthropometric data, lumbar and femoral BMD (DXA) [considering osteoporosis (OP): T-score ⩽-2.5], TBS (considering degraded microarchitecture: <1.230) and dorsolumbar X-ray [to assess vertebral fractures (VF)] were evaluated. BMD and TBS sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values (PPV, NPV) were evaluated to determine the diagnostic accuracy of the two methods.

RESULTS

All patients were receiving GC treatment for autoimmune diseases during 47.7 (68.9) months at a mean daily dose of 14.5 mg; 17% had VF, 28% any type of fragility fracture (VF + non-VF), 29% OP and 52% degraded microarchitecture. Degraded microarchitecture was significantly more frequent than densitometric OP in patients with VF (76% vs 38%) and with any fragility fracture (69% vs 36%). For VF, TBS and BMD sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV were 0.76, 0.53, 0.25 and 0.92, and 0.38, 0.72, 0.22 and 0.85, respectively. Specificity increased to 0.89 for VF and 0.9 for any fragility fracture on combining BMD+TBS. TBS had better ability than BMD to discriminate between patients with fracture, especially VF (area under the curve = 0.73).

CONCLUSION

TBS seems to have greater discriminative power than BMD for fracture risk assessment in GC-treated patients, confirming the utility of this method as a complementary tool in the diagnosis of GC-induced OP.

Association of optimal blood pressure with mortality in patients taking antihypertensive medications

We investigated the relationship between blood pressure (BP) and mortality in patients taking antihypertensive medications in the Korean using data from the 2007-2015 Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys. A total of 6601 patients aged 30-74 years were included. Systolic BP (SBP) and diastolic BP (DBP) were both divided into four groups as follows: SBP < 120, 120 ≤ SBP ≤ 129 130 ≤ SBP ≤ 139, and SBP ≥ 140; DBP < 70, 70 ≤ DBP ≤ 79, 80 ≤ DBP ≤ 89, and DBP ≥ 90. The survival rates and hazard ratios were evaluated using Kaplan-Meier curves and multivariable Cox regression analyses. To evaluate the predictability of all-cause mortality according to SBP and/or DBP, we calculated Harrell's concordance-index. The lowest DBP group had a high risk of mortality regardless of the SBP status. The group with DBP < 70 mm Hg and SBP ≥ 140 mm Hg showed the highest mortality. The discriminatory ability calculated using Harrell's C-indexes was greater for the combination of SBP and DBP compared to DBP or SBP alone. These results suggest that it is more effective to simultaneously evaluate the effect of SBP and DBP to predict mortality; clinicians should manage DBP < 70 mm Hg when treating hypertensive patients.

A Validated IVRT Method to Assess Topical Creams Containing Metronidazole Using a Novel Approach

An IVRT method was developed and validated to confirm its reproducibility, precision, sensitivity, selectivity, accuracy, robustness, and reliability. A novel approach was used to demonstrate the appropriateness of the IVRT method to accurately assess "sameness" between topical products and to confirm that the methodology applied also possesses the requisite discriminatory power to detect differences should such differences exist between products. In the first instance, the reference product (Metrocreme®) containing 0.75% metronidazole (MTZ) was tested against itself as a positive control, to accurately demonstrate "sameness", where the results met the relevant acceptance criteria falling within the limits of 75-133.33% in accordance with the FDA's SUPAC-SS guidance. In addition, two specially prepared creams containing 25% less and 26% more MTZ, i.e., 0.563% and 0.945%, served as negative controls and were compared against the reference product. Neither of these creams fell within the "sameness" acceptance criteria, thereby confirming the discriminatory ability of the IVRT method to detect differences between MTZ products. Furthermore, another cream containing 0.75% MTZ tested against the reference product was shown to be pharmaceutically equivalent to the reference product. These results confirm the appropriateness of the IVRT method as a valuable tool for use in the development of topical MTZ products intended for local action and indicate the potential for general use with other topical products.

Perspectives on Physicochemical and In Vitro Profiling of Ophthalmic Ointments

Ophthalmic ointments are unique in that they combine features of topical drug delivery, the ophthalmic route and ointment (semisolid) formulations. Accordingly, these complex formulations are challenging to develop and evaluate and therefore it is critically important to understand their physicochemical properties as well as their in vitro drug release characteristics. Previous reports on the characterization of ophthalmic ointments are very limited. Although there are FDA guidance documents and USP monographs covering some aspects of semisolid formulations, there are no FDA guidance documents nor any USP monographs for ophthalmic ointments. This review summarizes the physicochemical and in vitro profiling methods that have been previously reported for ophthalmic ointments. Specifically, insight is provided into physicochemical characterization (rheological parameters, drug content and content uniformity, and particle size of the API in the finished ointments) as well as important considerations (membranes, release media, method comparison, release kinetics and discriminatory ability) in in vitro release testing (IVRT) method development for ophthalmic ointments. Graphical Abstract Summary of the physicochemcial profiling and in vitro drug release testing (IVRT) for ophthalmic ointments.

A new tumor-associated antigen prognostic scoring system for spontaneous ruptured hepatocellular carcinoma after partial hepatectomy

Objective:

Spontaneous hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) rupture can be fatal, and hepatic resection could achieve a favorable long-term survival among all strategies of tumor rupture. However, there is no available prognostic scoring system for patients with ruptured HCC who underwent partial hepatectomy.

Methods:

From January 2005 to May 2015, 129 patients with spontaneous HCC rupture underwent partial hepatectomy. Preoperative clinical data were collected and analyzed. Independent risk factors affecting overall survival (OS) were used to develop the new scoring system. Harrell’s C statistics, Akaike information criterion (AIC), the relative likelihood, and the log likelihood ratio were calculated to measure the homogeneity and discriminatory ability of a prognostic system.

Results:

In the multivariable Cox regression analysis, three factors, including tumor size, preoperative α-fetoprotein level, and alkaline phosphatase level, were chosen for the new tumor-associated antigen (TAA) prognostic scoring system. The 1-year OS rates were 88.1%, 43.2%, and 30.2% for TAA scores of 0–5 points (low-risk group), 6–9 points (moderate-risk group), and 10–13 points (high-risk group), respectively. The TAA scoring system had superior homogeneity and discriminatory ability (Harrell’s C statistics, 0.693 vs. 0.627 and 0.634; AIC, 794.79 vs. 817.23 and 820.16; relative likelihood, both < 0.001; and log likelihood ratio, 45.21 vs. 22.77 and 21.84) than the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer staging system and the Cancer of the Liver Italian Program in predicting OS. Similar results were found while predicting disease-free survival (DFS).

Conclusions:

The new prognostic scoring system is simple and effective in predicting both OS and DFS of patients with spontaneous ruptured HCC.

Can We Estimate Short- and Intermediate-term Survival in Patients Undergoing Surgery for Metastatic Bone Disease?

BACKGROUND

Objective means of estimating survival can be used to guide surgical decision-making and to risk-stratify patients for clinical trials. Although a free, online tool ( www.pathfx.org ) can estimate 3- and 12-month survival, recent work, including a survey of the Musculoskeletal Tumor Society, indicated that estimates at 1 and 6 months after surgery also would be helpful. Longer estimates help justify the need for more durable and expensive reconstructive options, and very short estimates could help identify those who will not survive 1 month and should not undergo surgery. Thereby, an important use of this tool would be to help avoid unsuccessful and expensive surgery during the last month of life.

QUESTIONS/PURPOSES

We seek to provide a reliable, objective means of estimating survival in patients with metastatic bone disease. After generating models to derive 1- and 6-month survival estimates, we determined suitability for clinical use by applying receiver operator characteristic (ROC) (area under the curve [AUC] > 0.7) and decision curve analysis (DCA), which determines whether using PATHFx can improve outcomes, but also discerns in which kinds of patients PATHFx should not be used.

METHODS

We used two, existing, skeletal metastasis registries chosen for their quality and availability. Data from Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center (training set, n = 189) was used to develop two Bayesian Belief Networks trained to estimate the likelihood of survival at 1 and 6 months after surgery. Next, data from eight major referral centers across Scandinavia (n = 815) served as the external validation set-that is, as a means to test model performance in a different patient population. The diversity of the data between the training set from Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center and the Scandinavian external validation set is important to help ensure the models are applicable to patients in various settings with differing demographics and treatment philosophies. We considered disease-specific, laboratory, and demographic information, and the surgeon's estimate of survival. For each model, we calculated the area under the ROC curve (AUC) as a metric of discriminatory ability and the Net Benefit using DCA to determine whether the models were suitable for clinical use.

RESULTS

On external validation, the AUC for the 1- and 6-month models were 0.76 (95% CI, 0.72-0.80) and 0.76 (95% CI, 0.73-0.79), respectively. The models conferred a positive net benefit on DCA, indicating each could be used rather than assume all patients or no patients would survive greater than 1 or 6 months, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Decision analysis confirms that the 1- and 6-month Bayesian models are suitable for clinical use.

CLINICAL RELEVANCE

These data support upgrading www.pathfx.org with the algorithms described above, which is designed to guide surgical decision-making, and function as a risk stratification method in support of clinical trials. This updating has been done, so now surgeons may use any web browser to generate survival estimates at 1, 3, 6, and 12 months after surgery, at no cost. Just as short estimates of survival help justify palliative therapy or less-invasive approaches to stabilization, more favorable survival estimates at 6 or 12 months are used to justify more durable, complicated, and expensive reconstructive options.

Risk Stratification Using Cerebrospinal Fluid Biomarkers in Patients with Mild Cognitive Impairment: An Exploratory Analysis

BACKGROUND

Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers can distinguish Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients from normal controls; however, their interpretation and potential for use in patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) remains unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To examine whether biomarker levels allow for risk stratification among MCI patients who are at increased risk to develop AD, thus allowing for improved targeting of early interventions for those whose risk are higher.

METHODS

We analyzed data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative on MCI patients (n = 195) to estimate their risk of developing AD for up to 6 years on the basis of baseline CSF biomarkers. We used time-dependent receiver operating characteristic analysis to identify the best combination of biomarkers to discriminate those who converted to AD from those who remained stable. We used these data to construct a multi-biomarker score and estimated the risk of progression to AD for each quintile of the multi-biomarker score.

RESULTS

We found that Aβ(1-42) and P-tau(181p) were the best combination among CSF biomarkers to predict the overall risk of developing AD among MCI patients (area under the curve = 0.77). The hazard ratio of developing AD among MCI patients with high-risk (3rd-5th quintiles) biomarker levels was about 4 times greater than MCI patients with low-risk (1st quintile) levels (95% confidence interval, 1.93-7.26).

CONCLUSION

Our study identifies MCI patients at increased risk of developing AD by applying a multi-biomarker score using CSF biomarker results. Our findings may be of value to MCI patients and their clinicians for planning purposes and early intervention as well as for future clinical trials.

A comparison of two scales for assessing health professional students' attitude toward interprofessional learning

RATIONALE

The validated 19-item Readiness for Interprofessional Learning Scale (RIPLS) is often used for assessing attitudes toward interprofessional education (IPE). The 12-item Interdisciplinary Education Perception Scale (IEPS), also used for this purpose, has not been validated among the professions of medicine, pharmacy, and physician assistants (PAs). The discriminatory ability of the two scales has not been directly compared. Comparison of the two will aid educators in selecting the optimal scale.

OBJECTIVE

To compare psychometric properties of the RIPLS and IEPS and to examine the ability of each scale to discriminate mean scores among student subgroups (gender, profession, seniority, and prior IPE exposure).

METHOD

We conducted a cross-sectional (Qualtrics(©)) survey (RIPLS and IEPS) of junior and senior students in medicine (n=360), pharmacy (n=360), and the PA profession (n=106). Descriptive statistics were used to report aggregate mean scores of subgroups. The internal consistency of each scale was assessed using Cronbach's α. Concurrent validity was measured by Pearson's correlation coefficients. Independent-sample t-tests and analysis of variances (ANOVAs) were performed to assess the discriminatory ability of each scale. Cohen's d effect sizes were calculated for all significant pair-wise comparisons.

RESULTS

Response rate was 82%. Cronbach's α was 0.85 (RIPLS) and 0.91 (IEPS). The RIPLS discriminated scores by gender among junior students only, and scores by IPE exposure among all students. The IEPS distinguished score differences for the three professions among junior students and by prior IPE exposure for all three professions. Neither scale detected differences in mean scores by profession among all students or by level of training among the three professions.

CONCLUSIONS

Neither the RIPLS nor the IEPS has greater discriminatory ability for detecting attitude differences among the student subgroups. Reason for differences may be explained by slightly different scale constructs. The RIPLS is designed to assess students' own attitude toward interprofessional learning, while the IEPS discerns perceived attitudes about team collaboration for students' own professions and may be more appropriate for more advanced students.

Change in HbA1c over 3 years does not improve the prediction of cardiovascular disease over and above HbA1c measured at a single time point

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

HbA1c is an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD), with 1% higher HbA1c levels associated with a 10-20% increased risk of CVD. Little is known about the association between change in HbA1c over time and cardiovascular risk in non-diabetic populations. This study examined the association between change in HbA1c over time and cardiovascular risk in a non-diabetic British population.

METHODS

We used data on HbA1c collected at baseline and at a second health examination 3 years later among a population of 5,790 non-diabetic men and women who participated in the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer (EPIC)-Norfolk. The association between change in HbA1c over 3 years and incident cardiovascular events over the following 8 years was examined using multivariate Cox regression. We also examined whether information on change in HbA1c over time improved prediction of cardiovascular events over a single measure of HbA1c by comparing the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (aROC) and computing the net reclassification improvement.

RESULTS

The mean change (SD) in HbA1c over 3 years was 0.13% (0.52). During 44,596 person-years of follow-up, 529 cardiovascular events occurred (incidence 11.9 per 1,000 person-years). Each 0.5% rise in HbA1c over 3 years was associated with a 9% increase in risk of a cardiovascular event (HR 1.09; 95% CI 1.01, 1.18) after adjustment for baseline HbA1c and other major cardiovascular risk factors. However, change in HbA1c was not associated with cardiovascular risk after adjustment for HbA1c at follow-up. Multivariate models with and without information on change in HbA1c over time showed a similar aROC of 0.78. Adding change in HbA1c to the model with HbA1c at follow-up did not improve risk classification.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Addition of information on change in HbA1c over 3 years did not improve the prediction of CVD over and above information on HbA1c and other major cardiovascular risk factors from a single time point.