Global, regional, and national burden and trends analysis of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer from 1990 to 2019 and predictions to 2030: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Objectives

Our aim was to explore the disease burden caused by gallbladder and biliary tract cancer globally, regionally, and nationally, by age and sex.

Methods

The absolute number of cases and age-standardized rates (ASR) of incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to gallbladder and biliary tract cancer were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. We estimated the trends in disease burden by calculating the percentage change in the absolute number of cases and the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) in ASR, by social development index (SDI), region, nation, sex, and age.

Results

From 1990 to 2019, the number of incident cases, prevalent cases, deaths, and DALYs worldwide significantly increased by 1.85-fold, 1.92-fold, 1.82-fold, and 1.68-fold, respectively. However, the age-standardized rates of incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs tend to decrease globally over time. Nevertheless, heterogeneous disease burden patterns exist between geographic regions due to different geographical risk factors, distinct epidemiologically predominant gallbladder and biliary tract cancer subtypes, and potential genetic predispositions or ethnicity. Additionally, socioeconomic status mediates the regional variation in disease burden, with increasing SDI or HDI scores associated with downward trends in the age-standardized rates of incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs. Older individuals and females are at higher risk of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer, but the increasing burden of early-onset gallbladder and biliary tract cancer is a cause for concern, especially for those living in lower SDI areas and males. High BMI is the primary risk factors underlying gallbladder and biliary tract cancer, accounted for 15.2% of deaths and 15.7% DALYs globally in 2019.

Conclusion

Our study comprehensively elucidated the distribution and dynamic trends of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer burden over the past three decades, from multiple dimensions. These findings emphasize the importance of promoting a healthy lifestyle as a population-level cancer prevention strategy and tailoring cancer control actions based on localized risk factors and the epidemic profiles of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer by anatomical subtype.

The global, regional, and national burden of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer and its attributable risk factors in 195 countries and territories, 1990 to 2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The global burden of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer (GBTC) is increasing. A comprehensive evaluation of the burden is crucial to improve strategies for GBTC prevention and treatment.

METHODS

The incidence rates, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of GBTC from 1990 to 2017 were extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases Study (GBD) 2017. Estimated annual percent changes (EAPCs) were calculated to quantify GBTC trends during the study period.

RESULTS

Globally, there were 210,878 new cases, 173,974 deaths, and 3,483,046 DALYs because of GBTC in 2017. GBTC incidence increased by 76%, mortality increased by 65%, and DALYs increased by 52% from 1990 to 2017. In addition, relatively higher Socio-Demographic Index regions had greater incidence and death rates but greatly decreased age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized death rate (ASDR). At the national level, Chile had the highest ASIR (10.38 per 100,000 population) and the highest ASDR (10.43 per 100,000 population) in 2017. The largest increases in ASIR (EAPC, 3.38) and ASDR (EAPC, 3.39) were observed in Georgia. Nonlinear associations were observed between the ASDR, the Socio-Demographic Index, and DALYs at the 21 GBD regional levels and at the national level. The proportions of GBTC age-standardized deaths and DALYs attributable to high body mass index were 15.4% and 16%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

GBTC remains a major health burden worldwide. These findings are expected to prompt policymakers to establish a cost-effective method for the early diagnosis, prevention, and treatment of GBTC, reducing its modifiable risk factors and reversing its increasing trends.

LAY SUMMARY

Although the rates of age-standardized incidence, death, and disability-adjusted life-years for gallbladder and biliary tract cancer decreased from 1990 to 2017, the numbers of these measures increased. Nonlinear associations existed between the age-standardized death rate, the Socio-Demographic Index, and disability-adjusted life-years at the 21 regional and national levels in the Global Burden of Disease Study.