Chronic lead exposure and burden of cardiovascular disease during 1990-2019: a systematic analysis of the global burden of disease study

Background

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are the leading causes of death and disability worldwide. Lead exposure is an important risk factor for CVD. In our study, we aimed to estimate spatial and temporal trends in the burden of cardiovascular disease associated with chronic lead exposure.

Methods

The data collected for our study were obtained from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019 and analyzed by age, sex, cause, and location. To assess the temporal trends in burden of CVD attributable to chronic lead exposure over 30 years, we used Joinpoint regression analysis.

Results

In 2019, the number of lead exposure-attributable CVD deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were 0.85 and 17.73 million, 1.7 and 1.4 times more than those observed in 1990, respectively. However, the corresponding age-standardized rates (ASR) of death and DALY gradually decreased from 1990 to 2019, especially from 2013 to 2019. Over the last 30 years, among 21 GBD regions and 204 countries and territories, the High-income Asia Pacific and the Republic of Korea experienced the largest reductions in age-standardized DALY and death rates, while Central Asia and Afghanistan experienced the largest increases. Males and the elderly population suffered higher death rates and DALY burdens than females and the young population. Furthermore, we observed that higher socio-demographic index (SDI) regions demonstrated lower ASR of death and DALY rates. In 2019, the low and low-middle SDI regions, especially South Asia, exhibited the highest burden of CVD attributable to lead exposure.

Conclusion

Our study provides a thorough understanding of the burden of CVD attributable to chronic lead exposure. The findings confirm the significance of implementing lead mitigation strategies and increasing investment in CVD prevention and treatment. These measures are crucial in reducing the burden of CVD and promoting public health on a global scale.

Changing trend of oral cancer disease burden in China from 1990 to 2019 and the forecast for the next 20 years

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to explore the trend of oral cancer (OC) disease burden in China from 1990 to 2019 and predict the disease burden in the next 20 years.

METHODS

OC data collected for 15 years old in China from 1990 to 2019 were obtained from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs), with respective 95% CI, were used to assess incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-year (DALY), and their trends.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized rate of incidence, mortality, and DALY of OC in China showed an upward trend with EAPCs of 2.33 (95% CI = 2.01-2.63), 1.44 (95% CI = 1.15-1.73), and 1.24 (95% CI = 0.95-1.52), respectively. The main risk factors for OC in China were smoking and alcohol consumption. New cases, deaths, and DALYs due to OC are predicted to increase >1.5 times over the next 20 years.

CONCLUSION

The number of cases, deaths, and DALYs will continue to increase in the next 20 years. Therefore, the control of risk factors, such as tobacco and alcohol consumption, needs to be strengthened to reduce the burden of OC in China.

Global Trends in the Incidence of Anxiety Disorders From 1990 to 2019: Joinpoint and Age-Period-Cohort Analysis Study

BACKGROUND

Anxiety disorders (ADs) are the most common mental illness with high prevalence, chronicity, and comorbidity. Despite rapid economic and cultural development, the global incidence of ADs continues to increase, with predominance in male individuals.

OBJECTIVE

To address the above issues, we analyzed the dynamic trends of the global incidence and disease burden of ADs from 1990 to 2019 and their different effects on age, period, and birth cohort and predicted the future trend of AD incidence.

METHODS

The data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2019. A joinpoint regression model was used to calculate the annual percent change in AD incidence, and age-period-cohort analysis was used to estimate the independent effects of age, period, and cohort. Nordpred age-period-cohort analysis was used to predict the incidence of ADs from 2020 to 2044.

RESULTS

The age-standardized incidence rate of ADs increased by 1.06% for both sexes, and the age-standardized disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) rate (ASDR) decreased by 0.12%. Joinpoint regression indicated that increments in average annual percent changes in the age-standardized incidence rate (0.068 vs 0.012) and ASDR (0.035 vs -0.015) for ADs globally were higher among male individuals than female individuals. The age-period-cohort analyses revealed that the relative risk (RR) of the incidence and DALYs of ADs among people of different sexes increased with age in adolescence and middle age and then decreased. For the period effect, the RR of incidence decreased, whereas the RR of DALYs increased in both sexes. Moreover, the RR of the incidence gradually increased and DALYs slowly decreased with birth year for both male and female individuals. New cases of ADs in male individuals are predicted to increase in the coming 25 years.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provided the changing trend of the global incidence and disease burden of ADs in the past 3 decades, indicating that early prevention and effective control cannot be ignored. We analyzed the age-period-cohort effect of potential trends in ADs and predicted future incidence trends. The results suggest that we should take active intervention measures, focusing on high-risk groups and developing effective management and control policies to reduce the global burden of disease.

Global burden of diabetes mellitus from 1990 to 2019 attributable to dietary factors: An analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

AIMS

To analyse spatial and temporal changes in the global burden of diabetes mellitus (DM) attributable to dietary factors from 1990 to 2019.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The burden of DM was analysed in terms of age-standardized disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) rates and age-standardized death rates (ASDRs), which were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, and their corresponding estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs).

RESULTS

The ASDR exhibited a decreasing trend (EAPC = -0.02), while the age-standardized DALY rate exhibited an increasing trend (EAPC = 0.65). Forty-four percent of the burden of DM was attributable to dietary factors, with the three largest contributors being high intake of red meat, high intake of processed meat, and low intake of fruit. Residence in a region with a high sociodemographic index (SDI) was associated with a diet low in whole grains and high in red meat and processed meat, while residence in a low-SDI region was associated with a diet low in whole grains and fruits, and high in red meat.

CONCLUSIONS

The age-standardized DALYs of DM attributable to dietary factors increased between 1990 and 2019 but differed among areas. The three largest dietary contributors to the burden of DM were high intake of red meat, high intake of processed meat, and low intake of fruit.

The burden of testicular cancer from 1990 to 2019 in the Middle East and North Africa region

Background

The incidence rate of testicular cancer has risen in many countries during recent decades. This study aimed to outline the impact of testicular cancer on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region from 1990 to 2019, examining its burden by age group and according to the socio-demographic index (SDI).

Methods

Data on the incidence, death, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to testicular cancer were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019. The counts and age-standardized rates (per 100,000) were reported, and all rates were accompanied by 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).

Results

In MENA, the age-standardized incidence rate of testicular cancer was 1.4 per 100,000 in 2019, showing a 244.0% increase since 1990. Similarly, the annual death rate, at 0.1, experienced a 2.6% rise during the same period. In 2019, testicular cancer accounted for 31.1 thousand DALYs, marking an age-standardized rate of 5.0, which was 2.8% higher than in 1990. The 1-4 age group exhibited the largest incidence rate in 2019. In addition, in both 1990 and 2019 the MENA/Global DALY ratio was higher than one in the 1-14 year age groups. During the period 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized DALY rate of testicular cancer steadily rose with higher SDI values, except for a decrease observed at an SDI of 0.8.

Conclusion

Over the last thirty years, there has been a notable rise in the burden of testicular cancer in the MENA region.

Changing Trends in the Global Burden of Cataract Over the Past 30 Years: Retrospective Data Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Cataracts now account for the largest proportion of the global burden of blindness and vision loss. Understanding the changing trends in the global burden of cataracts over the past 30 years and the next 15 years is of clear significance for the prevention and control of cataracts in key populations. As far as we know, research on the future burden of cataracts is lacking.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to assess the global burden of cataracts over the past 30 years by using age-period-cohort modeling and to estimate trends in the next 15 years.

METHODS

Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, the United Nations Development Programme, and the WHO (World Health Organization) Global Health Observatory data repository. The assessment of trends and disparities in the number and rate of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for cataracts from 1990 to 2019 was conducted. The association between the age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) and the socio-demographic index (SDI), human development index (HDI), national levels of particulate matter <2.5 μm in diameter (PM2.5), and ambient ultraviolet radiation (UVR) was determined using linear regression analysis. Additionally, we used the Nordpred (Harald Fekjær and Bjørn Møller) age-period-cohort model to predict the cataract burden from 2020 to 2034.

RESULTS

Globally, the number of DALYs due to cataract increased from 3,492,604 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2,481,846-4,719,629) in 1990 to 6,676,281 (95% UI 4,761,210-9,006,193) in 2019. The ASDRs due to cataract decreased from 93.17 (95% UI 66.14-125.32) in 1990 to 82.94 (95% UI 59.06-111.75) in 2019, with an average annual percentage change of -0.37 (95% CI -0.44 to -0.3; P<.001). Age, female sex, air pollution, smoking, high fasting plasma glucose levels, and a high body mass index were risk factors for the burden of cataracts. SDI and HDI were negatively correlated with ASDRs of cataracts, while PM2.5 and UVR were positively associated with them. Higher DALY rates were also associated with lower SDI (R2=0.1939; P<.001), lower HDI (R2=0.2828; P<.001), national PM2.5 concentration (R2=0.1874; P<.001), and ambient UVR levels (R2=0.2354; P<.001). The prediction model suggested that the number of DALYs due to cataract will continue to rise globally, while the cataract DALY rate will continue to decrease.

CONCLUSIONS

While the ASDR of cataracts has decreased, there has been a notable increase in the number of DALYs over the past 30 years. Projections suggest that the global burden of cataracts will continue to rise over the next 15 years. To address this challenge, appropriate prevention and treatment policies must be implemented.

Global, regional, and national burden of hypertensive heart disease among older adults in 204 countries and territories between 1990 and 2019: a trend analysis

BACKGROUND

Hypertensive heart disease (HHD) poses a public health challenge, but data on its burden and trends among older adults are scarce. This study aimed to identify trends in the burden of HHD among older adults between 1990 and 2019 at the global, regional, and national levels.

METHODS

Using the Global Burden of Diseases study 2019 data, we assessed HHD prevalence, death, and disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) rates for individuals aged 60-89 years at the global, regional, and national levels and estimated their average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) between 1990 and 2019 using joinpoint regression analysis.

RESULTS

In 2019, there were 14.35 million HHD prevalent cases, 0.85 million deaths, and 14.56 million DALYs in older adults. Between 1990 and 2019, the prevalence of HHD increased globally {AAPC, 0.38 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.36, 0.41)} with decreases observed in mortality (AAPC, -0.83 [95% CI, -0.99, -0.66]) and the DALY rate (AAPC, -1.03 [95% CI, -1.19, -0.87]). This overall global trend pattern was essentially maintained for sex, age group, and sociodemographic index (SDI) quintile except for non-significant changes in the prevalence of HHD in those aged 70-74 years and in the middle SDI quintile. Notably, males had a higher HHD prevalence rate. However, HHD-related mortality and the DALY rate were higher in females. The middle SDI quintile experienced the largest decreases in mortality and the DALY rate, with a non-significant decline in prevalence between 1990 and 2019. There were significant discrepancies in the HHD burden and its trends across regions and countries.

CONCLUSIONS

In the past three decades, there has been an overall increasing trend in the prevalence of HHD among older adults worldwide despite decreasing trends in mortality and the DALY rate. Better management of hypertension, and prevention and control of HHD are needed in older adults.

Global burden of esophageal cancer attributable to smoking: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background

Epidemiological trends of esophageal cancer attributable to smoking remain unclear. This study aimed to estimate the spatiotemporal trends of the esophageal cancer burden attributable to smoking to assist in global esophageal cancer prevention and smoking cessation.

Methods

Data on esophageal cancer attributable to smoking were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The number and age-standardized rates of esophageal cancer mortality (ASMR) and disability-adjusted life years (ASDR) were analyzed by age, sex, and location. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to analyze the temporal trends of esophageal cancer burden attributable to smoking over 30 years.

Results

In 2019, the number of global esophageal cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to smoking was approximately 203,000 and 475 million, respectively. The global esophageal cancer deaths and DALYs due to smoking were approximately 1.5-fold increased from 1990 to 2019, but the corresponding ASMR and ASDR had decreased. The heaviest burden occurred in East Asia, Mongolia, and the middle socio-demographic index (SDI) region. The male-to-female ratio was approximately 12.7 in the esophageal cancer deaths and DALYs and was approximately 14.3 in the ASMR and ASDR. The heaviest burden appeared in the 60-74 years age group. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) in ASMR was highly negatively associated with ASMR in 1990 (ρ = -0.41, p < 0.001) and SDI in 2019 (ρ = -0.29, p < 0.001).

Conclusion

Despite reductions in ASMR and ASDR, the esophageal cancer burden attributable to smoking remains heavy, especially in middle SDI regions. Active tobacco control can reduce esophageal cancer burden.

Incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years of acute myocardial infarction in Kazakhstan: data from unified national electronic healthcare system 2014-2019

Background

Cardiovascular diseases contribute to premature mortality globally, resulting in substantial social and economic burdens. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study reported that in 2019 alone, heart attack and strokes accounted for the deaths of 18.6 million individuals. Ischemic heart diseases, including acute myocardial infarction (AMI), accounted for 182 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and it is leading cause of death worldwide.

Aim

The aim of this study is to present the burden of AMI in Kazakhstan and describe the outcome of hospitalized patients.

Methods

The data of 79,172 people admitted to hospital with ICD-10 diagnosis I21 between 2014 and 2019 was derived from the Unified National Electronic Health System and retrospectively analyzed.

Results

The majority of the cohort (53,285, 67%) were men, with an average age of 63 (±12) years, predominantly of Kazakh (38,057, 48%) and Russian (24,583, 31%) ethnicities. Hypertension was the most common comorbidity (61,972, 78%). In males, a sharp increase in incidence is present after 40 years, while for females, the morbidity increases gradually after 55. Throughout the observation period, all-cause mortality rose from 101 to 210 people per million population (PMP). In 2019, AMI account for 169,862 DALYs in Kazakhstan, with a significant proportion (79%) attributed to years of life lost due to premature death (YLDs). Approximately half of disease burden due to AMI (80,794 DALYs) was in age group 55-69 years. Although incidence is higher for men, they have better survival rates than women. In terms of revascularization procedures, coronary artery bypass grafting yielded higher survival rates compared to percutaneous coronary intervention (86.3% and 80.9% respectively) during the 5-year follow-up.

Conclusion

This research evaluated the burden and disability-adjusted life years of AMI in Kazakhstan, the largest Central Asian country. The results show that more effective disease management systems and preventive measures at earlier ages are needed.

Spatial Patterns of Gallbladder and Biliary Tract Carcinoma in China From 1990 to 2019: An Analysis at the Provincial Level

Background Despite a high rate of fatal malignancy, little is known regarding the spatial and temporal patterns of the disease burden of gallbladder and biliary tract carcinoma in China, especially at the provincial level. Methodology Using data from the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study, we estimated the temporal trend of the disease burden of gallbladder and biliary tract carcinoma from 1990 to 2019 as well as its incidence, mortality, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). We estimated the spatial pattern of the disease burden of gallbladder and biliary tract carcinoma at the provincial level. Results The disease burden of gallbladder and biliary tract carcinoma significantly increased from 1990 to 2019 in China. The age-standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs increased by 28.3%, 50.5%, 13.0%, and 7.0%, respectively. The disease burden of gallbladder carcinoma revealed substantial heterogeneity at the provincial level with a higher disease burden in developed provinces or cities than in developing provinces. The disease burden of gallbladder and biliary tract carcinoma was also heavier among males than among females (e.g., age-standardized DALYs: 42.60 per 100,000 people among males vs. 33.57 per 100,000 people among females in 2019). Conclusions The disease burden of gallbladder and biliary tract carcinoma has shown rapid changes during the past three decades, with a higher burden in economically advantaged regions than in disadvantaged regions in China. New public health policies and initiatives are needed to address this rising disease burden.

Trends in deaths and disability-adjusted life-years of stroke attributable to high body-mass index worldwide, 1990-2019

Background

High body mass index (HBMI) is an independent risk factor for stroke. Previous studies on the incremental burden of the rapid growth of stroke attributable to HBMI are incomplete and lag behind. We aim to assess the global burden of stroke attributable to HBMI based on a public database online.

Materials and methods

Study data were taken from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study; deaths, the Disability-Adjusted Life-Years (DALYs), and their age-standardized rates were screened. The join point regression was used, wherein age-standardized rates were referred to as temporal trends in disease burden.

Results

Deaths from stroke attributable to HBMI worldwide were on the rise during 1990-2019, with an increase of 88.75%. Age-standardized DALYs were on the rise during 1990-2003 but declined during 2003-2013, with a turning point in 2013 and an increasing trend since then [the Annual Percentage Change (APC) = 0.30%, p < 0.05]. China, India, Indonesia, the Russian Federation, and the United States of America shared in sequence the rate of leading deaths and DALYs in 2019. The Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) was associated with an increasing trend in age-standardized deaths (R = -0.24, p < 0.001) and age-standardized DALYs (R = -0.22, p = 0.0018).

Conclusion

A range of indicators for the global burden of stroke attributable to HBMI have been on the rise for the past three decades. Tremendous efforts worldwide should be in place to control and treat stroke attributable to HBMI, especially in regions with high-middle and middle SDIs and among middle-aged and aged populations.

The burden of congenital birth defects between 1990 and 2019 in China: an observational study

Background

Congenital birth defects (CBDs) are a major public health issue. This study aims to assess trends in the burden of CBDs between 1990 and 2019 across China based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019).

Methods

Indicators of the burden of CBDs included incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Metrics included number, rate, and age-standardized rate with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). Data were stratified by region [China, global, high-, middle-, low-socio-demographic index (SDI)], age, sex, and type of CBD. Average annual percentage changes (AAPC) and trends were evaluated.

Results

In China, between 1990 and 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate for CBDs showed an increasing trend, with an AAPC of 0.26% (0.11% to 0.41%), reaching 148.12 per 10⁵ person-years (124.03 to 176.33) in 2019. Most CBDs were congenital heart anomalies, with an AAPC of 0.12% (-0.08% to 0.32%). The age-standardized mortality rate for CBDs showed a decreasing trend, with an AAPC of -4.57% (-4.97% to -4.17%), reaching 4.62 per 10⁵ person-years (3.88 to 5.57) in 2019. Most mortality was associated with congenital heart anomalies, with an AAPC of -3.77% (-4.35% to -3.19%). The age-standardized DALYs rate for CBDs showed a decreasing trend, with an AAPC of -3.74% (-3.95% to -3.52%), reaching 480.95 per 10⁵ person-years (407.69 to 570.04) in 2019.

Conclusions

Morbidity associated with CBDs increased in China between 1990 and 2019, accelerated by the adoption of the two-child policy, and ranked high globally. These findings emphasize the need for prenatal screening and primary and secondary prevention strategies.

Increasing global burden of rheumatoid arthritis: an epidemiological analysis from 1990 to 2019

INTRODUCTION

To examine the burden of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) at the global, regional, and national levels in terms of sex, age, geographic distribution, and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI).

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Using Global Burden of Disease study data, the global incidence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of RA from 1990 to 2019 were analysed.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2019, the global RA incidence and DALYs increased by 6.47% and 1.15%, respectively. Moreover, both the global age-standardized incidence rate (EAPC = 0.30; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.25-0.34) and DALYs (EAPC = 0.12; 95% CI: 0.08-0.17) increased. The age-standardized RA incidence was substantially higher in the high-SDI regions than in the other regions. By geographical region, the largest increases in the age-standardized RA incidence and DALYs were observed in Andean Latin America. By country, the largest increase in RA incidence was observed in Equatorial Guinea (EAPC = 1.78), followed by Bhutan (EAPC = 1.54) and Peru (EAPC = 1.53). The age-standardized RA incidence was lower in men than in women. Positive correlations were found between the EAPC of the age-standardized RA incidence and the SDI.

CONCLUSIONS

Increasing trends in the age-standardized RA incidence and DALYs worldwide were shown. Future strategies for RA prevention should focus on women and older adults, as well as individuals from Andean Latin America, southern Latin America, central Asia, western sub-Saharan Africa, and other high-risk regions.

Burden of Common Neurologic Diseases in Asian Countries, 1990-2019: An Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background and objectivesBased on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) study, neurological disorders are a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. However, there has been no comprehensive assessment of neurological disorders in Asia. Data from the GBD 1990-2019 study were investigated to provide new details for neurological disorders in Asia.MethodsThe burden of common neurological disorders in Asia was calculated for 1990 and 2019 as incidence, prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). 13 common neurological disorders were analyzed. Data are presented as totals and by sex, age, year, location, risk factors and socio-demographic index (SDI) and shown as counts and rates.ResultsIn 2019, the most burdensome neurological disorders in Asia with respect to the absolute number of DALYs were stroke (98.8 million [95% UI, 91.0∼107.0]), migraine (24.6 million [95% UI, 3.4∼56.4]), Alzheimer's disease (AD) and other dementias (13.5 million [95% UI, 5.9∼29.8]). From 1990 to 2019, the absolute number of DALYs and deaths caused by combined neurological disorders (deaths by 60.7% and DALYs by 17.6%) increased, but the age-standardised rates (deaths by 34.1% and DALYs by 36.3%) decreased. The burden of neurological disorders peaked among individuals aged 65-74 years and was higher among males than among females; moreover, this burden varied considerably across Asian subregions and countries. Risk-attributable DALYs accounted for 86.9%, 28.5%, and 11.1% of DALYs for stroke, AD and other dementias and multiple sclerosis (MS), respectively. For communicable neurological disorders, the crude rates of all metrics were moderately to strongly negatively correlated with the SDI, while the crude rate of stroke prevalence was moderately positively correlated with the SDI.ConclusionNeurological disorders were the leading cause of DALYs and the second leading cause of deaths in Asia in 2019, and the burden may likely increase with the growth and aging of the Asian population. Urgent measures are needed for prevention, treatment, rehabilitation, and support services for common neurological disorders regionally and nationally.

The burden of Alzheimer's disease and other types of dementia in the Middle East and North Africa region, 1990-2019

BACKGROUND

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is the most common cause of dementia and this progressive neurological disorder is associated with substantial mortality and morbidity. We aimed to report the burden of AD and other types of dementia in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, by age, sex and sociodemographic index (SDI), for the period 1990-2019.

METHODS

publicly accessible data on the prevalence, death and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) because of AD, and other types of dementia, were retrieved from the global burden of disease 2019 project for all MENA countries from 1990 to 2019.

RESULTS

in 2019, the age-standardised point prevalence of dementia was 777.6 per 100,000 populations in MENA, which was 3.0% higher than in 1990. The age-standardised death and DALY rates of dementia were 25.5 and 387.0 per 100,000, respectively. In 2019, the highest DALY rate was observed in Afghanistan and the lowest rate was in Egypt. That same year, the age-standardised point prevalence, death and DALY rates increased with advancing age and were higher for females of all age groups. From 1990 to 2019, the DALY rate of dementia decreased with increasing SDI up to 0.4, then slightly increased up to an SDI of 0.75, followed by a decrease for the remaining SDI levels.

CONCLUSIONS

the point prevalence of AD and other types of dementia has increased over the past three decades, and in 2019, the corresponding regional burden was higher than the global average.

The Global Burden of Appendicitis in 204 Countries and Territories from 1990 to 2019

OBJECTIVE

Appendicitis is a common surgical emergency. This study aimed to estimate the worldwide burden and trends of appendicitis from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

Data on appendicitis were derived from the Global Burden of Disease 2019. Incidence and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) data were analyzed at global, regional, and national levels and stratified by sex, age, and socio-demographic index. The estimated annual percentage change and relative change were used to assess changing trends. Pearson's correlation test was used to assess the correlation between different measures.

RESULTS

Global incidence grew by 63.55% between 1990 and 2019, age-standardized incidence rate climbed by an estimated percentage change of 0.58 per year, whereas the number of DALY declined by 31.93% during the same period, with an estimated annual percentage change of -2.77. In 2019, the areas of Andean Latin America and the Caribbean had the highest age-standardized rates of incidence and DALYs. While South Asia saw the largest increase in age-standardized incidence rates, Andean Latin America saw the biggest decline in age-standardized rates of incidence and DALYs. At the national level, Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Peru were the top three countries in terms of age-standardized incidence rates in 2019, and Honduras, Haiti, and the Central African Republic held the highest age-standardized DALY rates. Ethiopia experienced the most age-standardized incidence rate increase, and Peru saw the largest decline in age-standardized rate of incidence and DALYs. Significant negative correlations between age-standardized DALY rates and socio-demographic index, between estimated annual percentage change and age-standardized incidence rates, were observed at the national level.

CONCLUSION

Appendicitis remains a major global health concern. Although the trends in DALYs decreased, the burden of incidence increased from 1990 to 2019. Policymakers should create health policies adapted to local conditions to manage the burden of appendicitis globally.

The Global, Regional, and National Burden and Trends of NAFLD in 204 Countries and Territories: An Analysis From Global Burden of Disease 2019

BACKGROUND

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) poses a substantial socioeconomic burden and is becoming the fastest growing driver of chronic liver disease, potentially accompanied by a poor prognosis.

OBJECTIVE

We aim to elucidate the global and regional epidemiologic changes in NAFLD during the past 30 years and explore the interconnected diseases.

METHODS

Data on NAFLD incidence, prevalence, death, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The age-standardized incident rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalent rate (ASPR), age-standardized death rate (ASDR), and age-standardized DALYs were calculated to eliminate the confounding effects of age when comparing the epidemiologic changes between different geographical regions. In addition, we also investigated the correlation between the NAFLD burden and the sociodemographic index (SDI). Finally, the associations of the 3 common comorbidities with NAFLD were determined.

RESULTS

Globally, the incidence and prevalence of NAFLD both increased drastically during the past 3 decades (incidence: from 88,180 in 1990 to 172,330 in 2019, prevalence: from 561,370,000 in 1990 to 1,235,700,000 in 2019), mainly affecting young adults who were aged from 15 to 49 years. The ASIR increased slightly from 1.94 per 100,000 population in 1990 to 2.08 per 100,000 population in 2019, while ASPR increased from 12,070 per 100,000 population in 1990 to 15,020 per 100,000 population in 2019. In addition, the number of deaths and DALYs attributable to NAFLD increased significantly as well from 93,760 in 1990 to 168,970 in 2019 and from 2,711,270 in 1990 to 4,417,280 in 2019, respectively. However, the ASDR and age-standardized DALYs presented decreasing trends with values of estimated annual percentage change equaling to -0.67 and -0.82, respectively (ASDR: from 2.39 per 100,000 population in 1990 to 2.09 per 100,000 population in 2019; age-standardized DALYs: from 63.28 per 100,000 population in 1990 to 53.33 per 100,000 population in 2019). Thereinto, the burden of death and DALYs dominated the patients with NAFLD who are older than 50 years. Moreover, SDI appeared to have obvious negative associations with ASPR, ASDR, and age-standardized DALYs among 21 regions and 204 countries, although there is no marked association with ASIR. Finally, we found that the incidence and prevalence of NAFLD were positively related to those of diabetes mellitus type 2, stroke, and ischemic heart disease.

CONCLUSIONS

NAFLD is leading to increasingly serious health challenges worldwide. The morbidity presented a clear shift toward the young populations, while the heavier burden of death and DALYs in NAFLD was observed in the aged populations and in regions with relatively low SDI. Comprehensive acquisition of the epidemiologic pattern for NAFLD and the identification of high-risk comorbidities may help policy makers and clinical physicians develop cost-effective prevention and control strategies, especially in countries with a high NAFLD burden.

The global burden and temporal trend of cancer attributable to high body mass index: Estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Objective

The purpose of the study was to describe the burden and temporal trend of cancer attributable to high body mass index (BMI), with major patterns highlighted by sex, Socio-demographic Index (SDI), and geographical region.

Methods

This population-based observational study collected epidemiological data on cancer attributable to high BMI from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2019. The obtained data included deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and their age-standardized rates at the global, gender, SDI, regional, and country levels. The trend magnitudes and directions over time for mortality were analyzed. The associations between SDI and burden of cancer attributable to high BMI were also evaluated by Pearson correlation analysis.

Results

Worldwide, 462.55 thousand deaths and 11.18 million DALYs of cancer were related to high BMI in 2019, and both have more than doubled since 1990. An annual 0.6% increase was observed for the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and the rate of increase slowed after 2000. In general, the burden of cancer attributable to high BMI was heavier in regions with higher SDI levels, whereas the increase slowed down or even showed a decreasing trend in the recent years. In contrast, in regions with lower SDI levels, although the baseline burden of cancer attributable to high BMI was relatively low, both the numbers and rates of deaths and DALYs showed a significantly increasing trend and may not stop increasing for a period of time. The trend and magnitude of high BMI-related cancer burden varied substantially in different anatomical sites. The leading three cancers of DALYs attributable to high BMI in 2019 were esophageal, colorectal, and liver cancer.

Conclusion

The high BMI-related burden of cancers is worsening, particularly in developing countries. Concerted action should be suggested to increase awareness of the harmful effects of high BMI and decrease the burden of disease attributable to high BMI, including cancer.

Incidence, Morbidity and years Lived With Disability due to Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in 204 Countries and Territories: Trends From 1990 to 2019

BACKGROUND

We aimed to examine the descriptive epidemiology and trends in the burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).

METHODS

Data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 dataset. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to assess the trends in incidence rate, mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) associated with T2DM. Measures were stratified by sex, region, country, age and social development index (SDI) value.

RESULTS

The global age-standardized incidence rate of T2DM increased from 1990 to 2019, with an EAPC of 1.25 (95% CI, 1.19 to 1.31). In 2019, the highest age-standardized incidence rate of T2DM was observed in high-SDI regions, and the largest increase in this rate from 1990 to 2019 was also in high-SDI regions (EAPC, 1.74;95% CI, 1.57 to 1.90). At the regional level, Central Asia (EAPC, 2.53;95% CI, 2.45 to 2.61) had the largest increase in the age-standardized incidence rate of T2DM from 1990 to 2019. At the national level, Luxembourg (EAPC, 4.51;95% CI, 4.37 to 4.65) and Uzbekistan (EAPC, 3.63; 95% CI, 3.44 to 3.82) had the largest increases in the age-standardized incidence rate of T2DM from 1990 to 2019. The global age-standardized death and DALY rates increased from 1990 to 2019, with EAPCs of 0.26 (95% CI, 0.16 to 0.37) and 0.81 (95% CI, 0.77 to 0.85), respectively. The age-standardized death and DALY rates showed the largest increases in Central Asia, South Asia and Southern Sub-Saharan Africa.

CONCLUSIONS

Globally, the age-standardized incidence, death and DALY rates increased from 1990 to 2019. Central Asia, South Asia and Southern Sub-Saharan Africa were found to have the greatest burden of T2DM. Future strategies should focus on these high-risk regions and other high-risk populations.

Burden of Prostate Cancer in China, 1990-2019: Findings From the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study

Our study is the first to illustrate the age and geographic distribution differences in the epidemiology of prostate cancer from 1990 to 2019 in China. Prostate cancer (PC) is a malignant tumor derived from prostate epithelial cells and is one of the most commonly diagnosed cancers in men. In recent years, the global incidence and the annual deaths number of PC showed a continuous increase, which has caused a huge disease burden on human health. In terms of the global average, the incidence and mortality of PC in China are relatively low. However, the age-standardized incidence rate of PC was 17.3/100,000 in 2019 in China, with a 95.2% rise compared to 1990, while the global growth rate of incidence rate over the same period is 13.2%. This showed that the development trend of PC in China is not optimistic. There are few precise studies on the epidemiology of PC in China. After the general analysis strategy used in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we elaborated on the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and the corresponding age-standardized rate of the Chinese PC population from 1990 to 2019 according to different ages and provinces. We used joinpoint regression analysis to estimate the incidence and mortality trends. Our analysis shows that elderly people over 80 are still the main focus of incidence and death. The epidemiology and disease burden of PC of different provinces in China show obvious regional differences, and some certain provinces such as HongKong, Macao, and Zhejiang should be paid more attention. More targeted and effective strategies should be developed to reduce the burden of PC in China.

Global, regional, and national burden of ovarian cancer and the attributable risk factors in all 194 countries and territories during 2007-2017: A systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

We estimated the global burden of ovarian cancer (OC) in 194 countries and territories between 2007 and 2017.

METHODS

Data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD), Injuries, and Risk Factors 2017 study.

RESULTS

Globally, 286 126.80 (95% UI = 278 075.38-295 311.41) incident cases, 4.67 million (4.53-4.83) disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and 175 981.99 (171 384.15-181 198.43) deaths were reported in 2017. The age-standardized incidence and DALY rates increased by 2.05% and 1.34% during 2007-2017, respectively, while the age-standardized mortality rate decreased by -0.14%. The age-standardized incidence, DALY, and mortality rates in 2017 were the highest in the high socio-demographic index (SDI) quintile, but the largest percentage increase during 2007-2017 was in the low-SDI quintile. Among regions, Central Europe showed the highest 2017 age-standardized incidence, DALY, and mortality rates, whereas South Asia and East Asia showed the largest percentage increases in both rates during 2007-2017. Among countries, India showed the largest percentage increase in age-standardized incidence and DALY rates, whereas Iran showed the largest percentage increase in age-standardized mortality rates. Globally, the largest percentage increase in risk-attributable DALYs was associated with metabolic risk factors (e.g., high fasting plasma glucose levels).

CONCLUSION

The global age-standardized incidence, DALYs, and mortality rates of OC remain stable during 2007-2017. However, the low SDI quintile and the greatest burden in South and East Asia, India, and Iran suggested that more targeted strategies should be performed in those regions and countries.

Incidence and disability-adjusted life years of maternal disorders at the global, regional, and national levels from 2007 to 2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

OBJECTIVE

To report the global burden of maternal disorders and their main subcategories in 195 countries and territories between 2007 and 2017.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimated maternal disease burden at global, regional, and country levels. Maternal disorders were disaggregated into 10 categories, and estimated incidence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of maternal disorders were reported separately. Indicators were estimated in different geographic settings and different sociodemographic index (SDI) regions. Based on GBD 2017 estimates, we systematically examined the incidence and DALYs of maternal disorders and their main subcategories at the global, regional, and national levels during the period from 2007 to 2017 by age and SDI.

RESULTS

Globally, a total of 7.98 million maternal disorders occurred in 2017, with a 4.33% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3.24%-5.60%) decrease in age-standardized incidence rate and a more significant decrease (30.26%) in the age-standardized rate of DALYs. Most incidences and DALYs were found in low-income and middle-income countries, especially in the sub-Saharan region. The greatest incidence of maternal disorders was found to be in maternal abortion and miscarriage (2.00 million), and the highest disease burden was in maternal hemorrhage (2.23 million).

CONCLUSION

A slight increase in the incidence of maternal disorders and substantial reductions in DALYs of overall maternal disorders and their main subcategories were found from 2007 to 2017, especially in low-income countries and the sub-Saharan region. Maternal hemorrhage, hypertensive disorders, and indirect maternal death were the top three causes of maternal disorders disease burden.

Global burden of thyroid cancer and its attributable risk factors in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019

Background

To investigate the burden of thyroid cancer and its attributable risk factors in 204 countries and territories during 30 years.

Methods

We extracted data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 database, including incidence, mortality, disability‐adjusted life‐years (DALYs), and the attributable risk factors of thyroid cancer from 1990 to 2019. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) were calculated to assess the changes in age‐standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age‐standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age‐standardized DALYs rate (ASDR). We also examined the associations between cancer burden and the sociodemographic index (SDI).

Results

The global new cases, death, and DALYs of thyroid cancer in 2019 were 233 847 (95% UI: 211 637–252 807), 45 576 (95% UI: 41 290‐48 775), and 1 231 841 (95% UI: 1 113 585–1 327 064), respectively. From 1990 to 2019, the ASIR of thyroid cancer showed an upward trend (EAPC = 1.25), but ASMR (EAPC = −0.15) and ASDR (EAPC = −0.14) decreased. The burden of thyroid cancer varied at regional and national levels, but the association between ASIR and SDI was positive. We found that the burden of thyroid cancer was mainly concentrated in females and that the age of onset tended to be younger. The proportion of DALYs from thyroid cancer attributable to high body‐mass index was higher in high SDI regions, especially in males.

Conclusions

The global incidence of thyroid cancer has continued to increase in the past three decades. The high body‐mass index as an important risk factor for thyroid cancer deserves greater attention, especially in high SDI regions.

Global, regional and national incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life-years of skin cancers and trend analysis from 1990 to 2019: An analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Information about global and local epidemiology and trends of skin cancers is limited, which increases the difficulty of cutaneous cancer control.

METHODS

To estimate the global spatial patterns and temporal trends of skin cancer burden. Based on the GBD 2019, we collected and analyzed numbers and age-standardized rates (ASR) of skin cancer incidence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and mortality (ASIR, ASDR, and ASMR) in 204 countries from 1990 through 2019 were estimated by age, sex, subtype (malignant skin melanoma [MSM], squamous-cell carcinoma [SCC], and basal-cell carcinoma [BCC]), Socio-demographic Index (SDI), region, and country. Temporal trends in ASR were also analyzed using estimated annual percentage change.

RESULTS

Globally, in 2019, there were 4.0 million BCC, 2.4 million SCC, and 0.3 million MSM. There were approximately 62.8 thousand deaths and 1.7 million DALYs due to MSM, and 56.1 thousand deaths and 1.2 million DALYs were attributed to SCC, respectively. The men had higher ASR of skin cancer burden than women. The age-specific rates of global skin cancer burden were higher in the older adults, increasing trends observed from 55 years old. Geographically, the numbers and ASR of skin cancers varied greatly across countries, with the largest burden of ASIR in high SDI regions. However, an unexpected increase was observed in some regions from 1990 to 2019, such as East Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa. Although there was a slight decrease of the ASMR and ASDR, the global ASIR of MSM dramatically increased, 1990-2019. Also, there was a remarkable increase in ASR of BCC and SCC burden.

CONCLUSIONS

Skin cancer remains a major global public health threat. Reducing morbidity and mortality strategies such as primary and secondary prevention should be reconsidered, especially in the most prevalent and unexpected increased regions, especially for those areas with the greatest proportions of their population over age 55.

Measuring the global disease burden of polycystic ovary syndrome in 194 countries: Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

STUDY QUESTION

What is the current burden of polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) at the global, regional, and country-specific levels in 194 countries and territories according to age and socio-demographic index (SDI)?

SUMMARY ANSWER

Slight increases in age-standardized incidence of PCOS and associated disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were evidenced among women of reproductive age (15–49 years) from 2007 to 2017 at the global level, and in most regions and countries.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

No detailed quantitative estimates of the PCOS incidence and DALYs by age and SDI in these 194 countries and territories have been published previously.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

An age- and SDI-stratified systematic analysis of the PCOS incidence and DALYs across 194 countries and territories has been performed.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

We used data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to estimate the total and age-standard PCOS incidence rates and DALYs rates among women of reproductive age in both 2007 and 2017, and the trends in these parameters from 2007 to 2017.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

Globally, women of reproductive age accounted for 1.55 million (95% uncertainty intervals (UIs): 1.19–2.08) incident cases of PCOS and 0.43 million (0.19–0.82) associated DALYs. The global age-standardized PCOS incidence rate among women of reproductive age increased to 82.44 (64.65–100.24) per 100 000 population in 2017, representing an increase of 1.45% (1.43–1.47%) from 2007 to 2017. The rate of age-standardized DALYs increased to 21.96 (12.78–31.15) per 100 000 population in 2017, representing an increase of 1.91% (1.89–1.93%) from 2007 to 2017. Over the study period, the greatest increase in the age-standardized PCOS incidence and DALYs rates were observed in the middle-SDI and high-middle SDI regions, respectively. At the GBD regional level, the highest age-standardized incidence and DALY rates in 2017 were observed in Andean Latin America, whereas the largest percentage increases in both rates from 2007 to 2017 were observed in Tropical Latin America. At the national level, Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, Japan, and Bermuda had the highest age-standardized incidence rates and DALYs rates in both 2007 and 2017. The highest increases in both the age-standardized incidence rates and DALYs rates from 2007 to 2017 were observed in Ethiopia, Brazil, and China.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

Although the GBD (2017) study aimed to gather all published and unpublished data, the limited availability of data in some regions might have led to the estimation of wide UIs. Additionally, the PCOS phenotype is complicated and the diagnostic criteria are constantly changing. Consequently, the incidence of PCOS might have been underestimated.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

Knowledge about the differences in the PCOS burden across various locations will be valuable for the allocation of resources and formulation of effective preventive strategies.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

The study was supported by grants from the Innovative Talent Support Plan of the Medical and Health Technology Project in Zhejiang Province (2021422878), Ningbo Science and Technology Project (202002N3152), Ningbo Health Branding Subject Fund (PPXK2018-02), Sanming Project of Medicine in Shen-zhen (SZSM201803080), and National Social Science Foundation (19AZD013). No potential conflicts of interest relevant to this article were reported.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

N/A

Global burden of non-communicable diseases attributable to dietary risks in 1990-2019

BACKGROUND

Dietary risks have raised attention worldwide during recent decades. The present burden-of-disease study aimed to evaluate the global dietary risks for non-communicable diseases (NCDs) from 1990 to 2019 and quantify their impact on mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study on deaths and DALYs from NCDs attributable to worldwide dietary risks were obtained and underwent deep analysis by year, age, gender, location, leading risks and leading causes, and their associations were examined. The socio-demographic index (SDI) was used as an indicator of national socio-economic status, as well as the relationships between age-standardised rates of deaths or DALYs and socio-economic status.

RESULTS

In 2019, 7.9 million deaths and 187.7 million DALYs were attributable to dietary risk factors. High intake of sodium and low intake of whole grains and fruits were leading dietary risks for deaths and DALYs worldwide. However, both indices showed a decreasing trend by year, an increase by age and a higher disease burden in males. The main distribution of dietary-related NCDs was located in highly populated countries. A negative association between the SDI and disease burden and a positive association between the SDI and male preponderance were found.

CONCLUSIONS

Dietary risk factors for NCDs increased significantly and varied across regions during 1990-2019. Therefore, greater efforts are needed to raise public awareness of interventions and improve dietary practices aiming to reduce the disease burden caused by suboptimal dietary intake, especially in developing countries and among males.

The global, regional, and national burden of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer and its attributable risk factors in 195 countries and territories, 1990 to 2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The global burden of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer (GBTC) is increasing. A comprehensive evaluation of the burden is crucial to improve strategies for GBTC prevention and treatment.

METHODS

The incidence rates, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of GBTC from 1990 to 2017 were extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases Study (GBD) 2017. Estimated annual percent changes (EAPCs) were calculated to quantify GBTC trends during the study period.

RESULTS

Globally, there were 210,878 new cases, 173,974 deaths, and 3,483,046 DALYs because of GBTC in 2017. GBTC incidence increased by 76%, mortality increased by 65%, and DALYs increased by 52% from 1990 to 2017. In addition, relatively higher Socio-Demographic Index regions had greater incidence and death rates but greatly decreased age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized death rate (ASDR). At the national level, Chile had the highest ASIR (10.38 per 100,000 population) and the highest ASDR (10.43 per 100,000 population) in 2017. The largest increases in ASIR (EAPC, 3.38) and ASDR (EAPC, 3.39) were observed in Georgia. Nonlinear associations were observed between the ASDR, the Socio-Demographic Index, and DALYs at the 21 GBD regional levels and at the national level. The proportions of GBTC age-standardized deaths and DALYs attributable to high body mass index were 15.4% and 16%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

GBTC remains a major health burden worldwide. These findings are expected to prompt policymakers to establish a cost-effective method for the early diagnosis, prevention, and treatment of GBTC, reducing its modifiable risk factors and reversing its increasing trends.

LAY SUMMARY

Although the rates of age-standardized incidence, death, and disability-adjusted life-years for gallbladder and biliary tract cancer decreased from 1990 to 2017, the numbers of these measures increased. Nonlinear associations existed between the age-standardized death rate, the Socio-Demographic Index, and disability-adjusted life-years at the 21 regional and national levels in the Global Burden of Disease Study.

Global, Regional, and National Burden of Diabetes-Related Chronic Kidney Disease From 1990 to 2019

BACKGROUND

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a public health problem largely caused by diabetes. The epidemiology of diabetes mellitus-related CKD (CKD-DM) could provide specific support to lessen global, regional, and national CKD burden.

METHODS

Data were derived from the GBD 2019 study, including four measures and age-standardized rates (ASRs). Estimated annual percentage changes and 95% CIs were calculated to evaluate the variation trend of ASRs.

RESULTS

Diabetes caused the majority of new cases and patients with CKD in all regions. All ASRs for type 2 diabetes-related CKD increased over 30 years. Asia and Middle socio-demographic index (SDI) quintile always carried the heaviest burden of CKD-DM. Diabetes type 2 became the second leading cause of CKD and CKD-related death and the third leading cause of CKD-related DALYs in 2019. Type 2 diabetes-related CKD accounted for most of the CKD-DM disease burden. There were 2.62 million incident cases, 134.58 million patients, 405.99 thousand deaths, and 13.09 million disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of CKD-DM worldwide in 2019. Age-standardized incidence (ASIR) and prevalence rate (ASPR) of type 1 diabetes-related CKD increased, whereas age-standardized death rate (ASDR) and DALY rate decreased for females and increased for males. In high SDI quintile, ASIR and ASPR of type 1 diabetes-related CKD remained the highest, with the slowest increase, whereas the ASDR and age-standardized DALY rate remained the lowest there. In high SDI quintile, ASIR of type 2 diabetes-related CKD was the highest, with the lowest increasing rate. In addition, type 2 diabetes-related CKD occurred most in people aged 80-plus years worldwide. The main age of type 2 diabetes-related CKD patients was 55-64 years in Asia and Africa. The prevalence, mortality, and DALY rate of type 2 diabetes-related CKD increased with age. As for incidence, there was a peak at 80 years, and after age of 80, the incidence declined. CKD-DM-related anemia was mainly in mild to moderate grade.

CONCLUSIONS

Increasing burden of CKD-DM varied among regions and countries. Prevention and treatment measures should be strengthened according to CKD-DM epidemiology, especially in middle SDI quintile and Asia.

Impact of COVID-19 infection control measures on influenza-related outcomes in Hong Kong

Following the announcement of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in Wuhan on 31 December 2019, government officials in Hong Kong recommended the wearing of face masks as a public infection control measure against the COVID-19 virus and curtail the impact of the concurrent influenza season. The present study evaluated the influenza-related outcomes between the influenza season 2019 and 2020 in Hong Kong as a result of these infection control measures. A Monte Carlo simulation model was designed to estimate the number of influenza cases, clinic visits, hospitalization, deaths, direct medical cost and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for the season 2018-2019 and 2019-2020 in six age groups: 0-5 years, 6-11 years, 12-17 years, 18-49 years, 50-64 years and ≥65 years in Hong Kong. Model inputs were derived from public data and existing literature. The model findings showed significant reduction in influenza-related cases, clinic visits, hospitalization, and deaths in 2020 versus 2019 (p < 0.05). Influenza-related direct costs in all age-groups were significantly reduced by 56%-82% (p < 0.01) in 2020 versus 2019. DALYs were also significantly decreased by 58%-85% (p < 0.01). The direct cost and DALYs avoided in 2020 was the highest among the age group of 0-5 years with a cost-saving of USD593,763 (95%CI 590,730-596,796) per 10,000 population and a DALY reduction of 57.67 (95%CI 57.54-57.83) per 10,000 population. This study illustrated the reduction of all influenza-related outcome measures in Hong Kong as a result of the implementation of public infection control measures against COVID-19.

Global, Regional, and National Burden of Chronic Myeloid Leukemia, 1990-2017: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background

With the advent of tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs), the prognosis of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) seems to have dramatically improved over the last two decades. Accurate information of the global burden of CML is critical for direct health policy and healthcare resource allocation in the era of high-cost TKI therapy.

Objective

This study aimed to evaluate the health burden of CML at global, regional, and national levels from 1990 to 2017.

Methods

We collected data of CML between 1990 and 2017 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2017 including, annual incidence, disease-related mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALY), and the corresponding age-standardized rates (ASRs). To summarize the results, countries were categorized by sociodemographic index (SDI) quintiles and 21 GBD regions.

Results

In 2017, an estimated 34,179 [95% Uncertainty Interval (UI), 31,516–36,714) incident cases of CML were recorded, and 24,054 (95%UI, 22,233–26,072) CML-related deaths were reported worldwide. Both, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized death rate (ASDR) steadily decreased from 1990 to 2017, with estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) of −2.39 (95%UI, −8.13–3.71) and −2.74 (95%UI, −9.31–4.31), respectively. The global incidence and mortality of CML in males were higher than that in females. The ASRs varied substantially across regions, with the highest burden in Andean Latin America, Central Sub-Saharan Africa, and Southeast Asia. Besides, the ASRs decreased most obviously in the high-SDI regions compared to non-high-SDI regions. Moreover, the lower the SDI, the higher was the proportion of deaths in the younger age groups.

Conclusion

Despite the decreasing trends of ASRs of CML from 1990 to 2017, the health-related burden of CML remains a challenge for the low-SDI regions. These findings highlight that appropriate strategies should be adopted in low-SDI countries to reduce the ASRs of CML.

Burden of colorectal cancer attributable to diet low in milk in China, 1990-2017: findings from the global burden of disease study 2017

BACKGROUND

Colorectal cancer (CRC) has emerged as a major public health concern. However, little is known about the burden attributable to specific risk factors. The present study aimed to estimate the temporal trends and geographical variation of CRC burden attributable to a diet low in milk in China.

METHODS

Following the general analytic strategy used in the 2017 Global Burden of Disease study, we assessed the age-, sex-, and province-specific mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of CRC caused by a diet low in milk in China from 1990 to 2017.

RESULTS

In 2017, a diet low in milk contributed 32 032 [95% uncertainty interval (UI) = 11 350-53 806] deaths and 726 710 (95% UI = 256 651-1 218 153) DALYs for CRC with a population attributable fraction of 17.1%. The age-standardised mortality and DALY rates per 100 000 were 1.7 (95% UI = 0.6-2.9) and 36.8 (95% UI = 13.0-61.7), respectively. An upward trend with age in rates of mortality and DALYs was observed. Males had higher age-standardised rates than females. The number of deaths and DALYs increased significantly from 1990 to 2017, whereas the corresponding age-standardised rates showed relatively stable trends. In 2017, Hunan and Liaoning were ranked as the top two provinces in terms of disease burden. Socio-demographic index had a weak correlation with the age-standardised mortality (r = 0.348, P = 0.047).

CONCLUSIONS

The present study shows a substantial increase in the CRC burden attributable to a diet low in milk over the past three decades. Greater priority in CRC prevention should be given to males and the elderly population throughout China, particularly in less-developed provinces.

Impact of Making Dental Care Affordable on Quality of Life in Adults Aged 45 Years and Older

Objective: The objective of this study was to examine the associations between self-reported ability to afford dental care and quality of life in adults aged 45 years and older. Method: We used publicly available cross-sectional data from the 2008 National Health Interview Survey and its oral health supplement for 11,760 adults aged 45+ years. The increased probabilities of reporting dental problems attributable to an inability to afford dental care were estimated from multivariate models and combined with respective dental problem disability weights from the Global Burden of Disease to measure loss in quality of life. Results: Prevalence of reported inability to afford dental care, severe tooth loss, severe periodontitis, and untreated caries were 11.9%, 8.5%, 14.3%, and 37.9%, respectively. Inability to afford dental care was associated with an increase of 0.017 disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) per person per year under base case and 0.020 DALYs under generous assumptions. Conclusion: Making dental care affordable could improve adult's (age 45 and above) quality of life at a reasonable cost.

Burden of skin disease and associated socioeconomic status in Europe: An ecologic study from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Introduction

Dermatoses contribute to a large burden of global disease, but the relationship between socioeconomic status and the effect of dermatologic conditions in Europe is not well understood.

Methods

We selected Global Burden of Disease Study data sets to analyze disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and the annual rate of change of dermatoses between 1990 and 2017 in 43 European countries. The principal country-level economic factor used was gross domestic product per capita from the World Bank. Statistical analysis was performed with Spearman ρ correlation.

Results

Wealthier European countries had higher DALYs for melanoma, basal cell carcinoma, psoriasis, atopic dermatitis, acne, seborrheic dermatitis, alopecia, asthma, contact dermatitis, and viral skin disease. Poorer countries had higher DALYs of squamous cell carcinoma, urticaria, decubitus ulcers, pruritus, scabies, tuberculosis, and syphilis. Thirteen European countries were in the top 10th percentile globally for annual increase in skin and subcutaneous disease burden.

Conclusion

The majority of European countries have experienced an increase in skin and subcutaneous diseases in recent decades relative to the rest of the world, but the burden of individual dermatoses in Europe varies by country and socioeconomic status. DALYs can potentially serve as a purposeful measure for directing resources to improve the burden of skin disease in Europe.

Global, regional, and national prevalence and disability-adjusted life-years for infertility in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: results from a global burden of disease study, 2017

To provide comprehensive estimates of the global, regional, and national burden of infertility from 1990 to 2017, using findings from a 2017 study on the global burden of disease (GBD), we assessed the burden of infertility in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. DisMod-MR 2.1 is a Bayesian meta-regression method that estimates non-fatal outcomes using sparse and heterogeneous epidemiological data. Globally, the age-standardized prevalence rate of infertility increased by 0.370% per year for females and 0.291% per year for males from 1990 to 2017. Additionally, age-standardized disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of infertility increased by 0.396% per year for females and 0.293% per year for males during the observational period. An increasing trend to these burden estimates was observed throughout the all socio-demographic index (SDI) countries. Interestingly, we found that high SDI countries had the lowest level of prevalence and DALYs in both genders. However, the largest increasing trend was observed in high-SDI countries for females. By contrast, low-SDI countries had the largest increasing trend in males. Negative associations were observed between these burden estimates and the SDI level. The global disease burden of infertility has been increasing throughout the period from 1990 to 2017.

Burden of melanoma in China, 1990-2017: Findings from the 2017 global burden of disease study

Melanoma is an aggressive form of skin cancer, and a worldwide problem with increasing incidence. Little is known about the burden of melanoma in the Chinese population. We evaluated temporal trends and geographic variation in melanoma-associated burden, to narrow an important knowledge gap concerning the consequences of this disorder across time, provinces in China. After the general analytic strategy used in the 2017 Global Burden of Disease study, we analyzed the incidence, mortality, prevalence and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of melanoma, by age, sex and geography from 1990 to 2017. Levels in melanoma burden were assessed for 33 province-level administrative units between 1990 and 2017. We used joinpoint regression analysis to estimate the slope of incidence and mortality trends. The age-standardized incidence rate of melanoma was 0.9 per 100,000 in 2017, with a 110.3% rise compared to 1990. Although the age-standardized DALYs rate (per 100,000) decreased from 9.1 in 1990 to 7.6 in 2017, it showed an upward trend from 2007 to 2017. The DALYs rate increased steadily with age for females while increased and peaked at 55-59 years for males. The incidence of melanoma was higher in the clustered eastern provinces than western provinces, while the DALYs showed a pattern in opposite direction. In China, there has been a substantial increase in the burden of melanoma over the last decade, representing an ongoing challenge in Chinese population. More targeted strategies should be developed for elderly population, especially for females, to reduce the melanoma burden throughout China, particularly the western provinces.

Postintroduction Study of Cost-Effectiveness of Pneumococcal Vaccine PCV10 from Public Sector Payer's Perspective in the State of Santa Catarina, Brazil

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate cost-effectiveness of 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in the routine immunization program for children younger than 5 years in Brazil by a postintroduction study.

METHODS

Ecological study of prevaccine (2006-2009) versus postvaccine (2011-2014) period related the changes in mortality rate and hospitalization rate to direct cost of pneumonia treatment from the payer's perspective to estimate the cost-effectiveness regarding lives saved, life-years gained, and disability-adjusted life-year for children younger than 5 years in the southern Brazilian state of Santa Catarina. All-cause pneumonia (ICD-10 J12-J18) deaths, hospital admissions, and associated costs were retrieved from the Brazilian Ministry of Health official Web site. Life expectancy at birth, population, ambulatory costs, cost savings, and plausible range of these parameters were used from published sources. Computer simulations with sensitivity analysis were performed to obtain the cost-effectiveness estimates.

RESULTS

About 27 lives were saved and 2573 hospitalizations averted by the 10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine vaccination in the 2011 to 2014 period at the cost of US $24,348 per life-year gained and US $27,748 per disability-adjusted life-year. The latter cost is 81% of Brazilian gross domestic product per capita over the same period.

CONCLUSIONS

The vaccine was very cost-effective according to the World Health Organization criterion.

Methodology for computing the burden of disease of adverse events following immunization

Purpose

Composite disease burden measures such as disability‐adjusted life‐years (DALY) have been widely used to quantify the population‐level health impact of disease or injury, but application has been limited for the estimation of the burden of adverse events following immunization. Our objective was to assess the feasibility of adapting the DALY approach for estimating adverse event burden.

Methods

We developed a practical methodological framework, explicitly describing all steps involved: acquisition of relative or absolute risks and background event incidence rates, selection of disability weights and durations, and computation of the years lived with disability (YLD) measure, with appropriate estimation of uncertainty. We present a worked example, in which YLD is computed for 3 recognized adverse reactions following 3 childhood vaccination types, based on background incidence rates and relative/absolute risks retrieved from the literature.

Results

YLD provided extra insight into the health impact of an adverse event over presentation of incidence rates only, as severity and duration are additionally incorporated. As well as providing guidance for the deployment of DALY methodology in the context of adverse events associated with vaccination, we also identified where data limitations potentially occur.

Conclusions

Burden of disease methodology can be applied to estimate the health burden of adverse events following vaccination in a systematic way. As with all burden of disease studies, interpretation of the estimates must consider the quality and accuracy of the data sources contributing to the DALY computation.

Do clinical trials conducted in India match its healthcare needs? An audit of the Clinical Trials Registry of India

Background:

India continues to contribute disproportionately to the global burden of disease and public health research output from India is also known to be not commensurate with her healthcare needs. We carried out the present study to assess if clinical trials were in line with the health care needs of the country by auditing the clinical trials registry of India.

Materials and Methods:

All the clinical studies registered in CTRI between July 20, 2007 and December 31, 2015 were searched in the “Trial Search” section. The total number of studies, their phases of development, and therapeutic areas were assessed. Trials in each therapeutic area was compared with the disease burden (DALYs) in that area taken from Global Health Estimates [2014] Summary Tables of the WHO. The number of trials conducted per state in India was also compared with the population of that state [Census 2011].

Results:

A total of 6474 studies were registered of which 3325 (51.4%) were clinical trials. The state of Maharashtra had the highest number trials [16.4%] followed by Karnataka (11.6%) and Tamil Nadu (10%). Populous states like Uttar Pradesh (5.3%) and Bihar (1.4%) had far fewer trials. The largest number of trials was in the area of cancer (16.4%), followed by diabetes (12.1%) and cardiovascular diseases (10.1%). Infectious and parasitic diseases had the highest DALYs (82,681) and ranked first in disease burden but accounted for only 5% of the total trials and ranked 7th according to number of trials. Cancer ranked first in the number of trials (16.4%), but ranked 6th based on DALYs.

Conclusion:

Clinical trials conducted in India are not in consonance with her health care needs. Strengthening the capacity for conducting trials in the populous states and the north-eastern part of the country is necessary to allow a more equitable selection of participants. The government should introduce policies to encourage new drug development in areas where needed the most.

The presence of hepatitis B core antibody is associated with more advanced liver disease in alcoholic patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Liver disease is more severe in patients with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infections and alcohol-induced liver injury. Whether the same is true for alcoholic patients with cirrhosis who have recovered from previous HBV infections remains to be determined.

OBJECTIVES

To document the extent of liver disease in alcoholic patients with cirrhosis who test negative for hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) and test positive for antibody to hepatitis B core antigen (anti-HBc).

METHODS

Two hundred fifty-four alcoholic patients with cirrhosis were divided into anti-HBc-positive (N = 171) and anti-HBc-negative (N = 83) cohorts. Demographic, clinical, and biochemical features were retrospectively analyzed. Prognostic scores and the prevalence of patients at high risk for short-term mortality were calculated. Logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with an increased risk for short-term mortality.

RESULTS

Jaundice was more common in the anti-HBc-positive cohort (32.2% vs. 18.1%, p = 0.02). This cohort also had higher serum bilirubin (70.9 vs. 50.4 μM/L, p = 0.03), prothrombin times (15.6 vs. 14.4 s, p = 0.01), MELD scores (8.5 vs. 4.6, p = 0.01), i-MELD scores (28.6 vs. 24.7, p = 0.03), MDF scores (14.2 vs. 6.8, p = 0.02) and ABIC scores (7.2 vs. 6.6, p = 0.01). In addition, anti-HBC-positive patients were more often at high risk for short-term mortality (40.4% vs. 26.5%, p = 0.03). Multivariate analysis identified anti-HBc-positive status (OR: 1.84; 95% CI: 1.10-3.36) and alcohol intake ≥150 g/day (OR: 2.01; 95% CI: 1.10-3.66) as independent risk factors for high risk of mortality.

CONCLUSION

The anti-HBc-positive state is associated with more advanced liver disease in alcoholic patients with cirrhosis. A prospective study including HBV-DNA testing and liver biopsies should be considered to validate and further elucidate these findings.

Cost-effectiveness of a new rotavirus vaccination program in Pakistan: a decision tree model

BACKGROUND

Rotavirus gastroenteritis places a significant health and economic burden on Pakistan. To determine the public health impact of a national rotavirus vaccination program, we performed a cost-effectiveness study from the perspective of the health care system.

METHODS

A decision tree model was developed to assess the cost-effectiveness of a national vaccination program in Pakistan. Disease and cost burden with the program were compared to the current state. Disease parameters, vaccine-related costs, and medical treatment costs were based on published epidemiological and economic data, which were specific to Pakistan when possible. An annual birth cohort of children was followed for 5 years to model the public health impact of vaccination on health-related events and costs. The cost-effectiveness was assessed and quantified in cost (2012 US$) per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted and cost per death averted. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the robustness of the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs).

RESULTS

The base case results showed vaccination prevented 1.2 million cases of rotavirus gastroenteritis, 93,000 outpatient visits, 43,000 hospitalizations, and 6700 deaths by 5 years of age for an annual birth cohort scaled from 6% current coverage to DPT3 levels (85%). The medical cost savings would be US$1.4 million from hospitalizations and US$200,000 from outpatient visit costs. The vaccination program would cost US$35 million at a vaccine price of US$5.00. The ICER was US$149.50 per DALY averted or US$4972 per death averted. Sensitivity analyses showed changes in case-fatality ratio, vaccine efficacy, and vaccine cost exerted the greatest influence on the ICER.

CONCLUSIONS

Across a range of sensitivity analyses, a national rotavirus vaccination program was predicted to decrease health and economic burden due to rotavirus gastroenteritis in Pakistan by ~40%. Vaccination was highly cost-effective in this context. As discussions of implementing the intervention intensify, future studies should address affordability, efficiency, and equity of vaccination introduction.