Analysis of chronic kidney disease epidemiology in Kazakhstan using nationwide data for 2014-2020 and forecasting future trends of prevalence and mortality for 2030

According to the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, chronic kidney disease (CKD) was prevalent in 697.5 million individuals worldwide in 2017. By 2040, it is anticipated that CKD will rank as the fifth most common cause of death. This study aims to examine the epidemiology of CKD in Kazakhstan and to project future trends in CKD prevalence and mortality by 2030. The retrospective analysis was performed on a database acquired from the Unified National Electronic Health System for 703,122 patients with CKD between 2014 and 2020. During the observation period, 444,404 women and 258,718 men were registered with CKD, 459,900 (66%) were Kazakhs and 47% were older than 50. The incidence rate notably decreased: 6365 people per million population (PMP) in 2014 and 4040 people PMP in 2020. The prevalence changed from 10,346 to 38,287 people PMP, and the mortality rate increased dramatically from 279 PMP to 916 PMP. Kazakhstan's central regions, Turkestan and Kyzylorda were identified as the most burdensome ones. The ARIMA model projected 1,504,694 expected prevalent cases in 2030. The predicted mortality climbed from 17,068 cases in 2020 to 37,305 deaths in 2030. By 2030, the prevalence and mortality of CKD will significantly increase, according to the predicted model. A thorough action plan with effective risk factor management, enhanced screening among risk populations, and prompt treatment are required to lessen the burden of disease in Kazakhstan.

Epidemiology of tuberculosis in Kazakhstan: data from the Unified National Electronic Healthcare System 2014-2019

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to estimate tuberculosis (TB) incidence, mortality rates and survival HRs in Kazakhstan, using large-scale administrative health data records during 2014-2019.

DESIGN

A retrospective cohort study.

SETTINGS

Data for patients with TB in Kazakhstan during 2014-2019, reported in the Unified National Electronic Healthcare System.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients with TB in Kazakhstan (ICD-10 (The International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision) codes: A15-A19).

OUTCOME MEASURES

Demographic factors, diagnoses and comorbidities were analysed using descriptive, bivariate and multivariable statistical analyses. TB incidence and mortality rates were calculated, and Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis were performed to assess risk factors for survival rates.

RESULTS

Of the 149 122 patients with TB, 91 437 (61%) were males, and 139 931 (94%) had respiratory TB. From 2014 to 2019, TB incidence declined from 227 to 15.2 per 100 000 individuals, while all-cause mortality increased from 8.4 to 15.2 per 100 000. Age-specific TB incidence was lowest for 0-10 years of age and highest for 20 years of age. Being older, man, urban residence versus rural, retired versus employed, having HIV and having diabetes versus no comorbidities were associated with lower survival rates.

CONCLUSION

To date, this is the largest TB published study for Kazakhstan, characterising TB incidence and mortality trends by demographic factors, and risk factors for survival rates. The findings highlight the need for targeted interventions to address the growing burden of TB, particularly among older adults, men, urban residents and those with HIV and diabetes. The study underscores the importance of using administrative health data to inform policy and health system responses to TB in Kazakhstan.

Incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years of acute myocardial infarction in Kazakhstan: data from unified national electronic healthcare system 2014-2019

Background

Cardiovascular diseases contribute to premature mortality globally, resulting in substantial social and economic burdens. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study reported that in 2019 alone, heart attack and strokes accounted for the deaths of 18.6 million individuals. Ischemic heart diseases, including acute myocardial infarction (AMI), accounted for 182 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and it is leading cause of death worldwide.

Aim

The aim of this study is to present the burden of AMI in Kazakhstan and describe the outcome of hospitalized patients.

Methods

The data of 79,172 people admitted to hospital with ICD-10 diagnosis I21 between 2014 and 2019 was derived from the Unified National Electronic Health System and retrospectively analyzed.

Results

The majority of the cohort (53,285, 67%) were men, with an average age of 63 (±12) years, predominantly of Kazakh (38,057, 48%) and Russian (24,583, 31%) ethnicities. Hypertension was the most common comorbidity (61,972, 78%). In males, a sharp increase in incidence is present after 40 years, while for females, the morbidity increases gradually after 55. Throughout the observation period, all-cause mortality rose from 101 to 210 people per million population (PMP). In 2019, AMI account for 169,862 DALYs in Kazakhstan, with a significant proportion (79%) attributed to years of life lost due to premature death (YLDs). Approximately half of disease burden due to AMI (80,794 DALYs) was in age group 55-69 years. Although incidence is higher for men, they have better survival rates than women. In terms of revascularization procedures, coronary artery bypass grafting yielded higher survival rates compared to percutaneous coronary intervention (86.3% and 80.9% respectively) during the 5-year follow-up.

Conclusion

This research evaluated the burden and disability-adjusted life years of AMI in Kazakhstan, the largest Central Asian country. The results show that more effective disease management systems and preventive measures at earlier ages are needed.

Prevalence of HIV in Kazakhstan 2010-2020 and Its Forecasting for the Next 10 Years

Background

HIV is a growing public health burden that threatens thousands of people in Kazakhstan. Countries around the world, including Kazakhstan, are facing significant problems in predicting HIV infection prevalence. It is crucial to understand the epidemiological trends of infectious diseases and to monitor the prevalence of HIV in a long-term perspective. Thus, in this study, we aimed to forecast the prevalence of HIV in Kazakhstan for 10 years from 2020 to 2030 by using mathematical modeling and time series analysis.

Methods

We use statistical Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models and a nonlinear epidemic Susceptible-Infected (SI) model to forecast the HIV infection prevalence rate in Kazakhstan. We estimated the parameters of the models using open data on the prevalence of HIV infection among women and men (aged 15-49 years) in Kazakhstan provided by the Kazakhstan Bureau of National Statistics. We also predict the effect of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) control measures on the prevalence rate.

Results

The ARIMA (1,2,0) model suggests that the prevalence of HIV infection in Kazakhstan will increase from 0.29 in 2021 to 0.47 by 2030. On the other hand, the SI model suggests that this parameter will increase to 0.60 by 2030 based on the same data. Both models were statistically significant by Akaike Information Criterion corrected (AICc) score and by the goodness of fit. HIV prevention under the PrEP strategy on the SI model showed a significant effect on the reduction of the HIV prevalence rate.

Conclusion

This study revealed that ARIMA (1,2,0) predicts a linear increasing trend, while SI forecasts a nonlinear increase with a higher prevalence of HIV. Therefore, it is recommended for healthcare providers and policymakers use this model to calculate the cost required for the regional allocation of healthcare resources. Moreover, this model can be used for planning effective healthcare treatments.

Predicting 1-year mortality of patients with diabetes mellitus in Kazakhstan based on administrative health data using machine learning

Diabetes mellitus (DM) affects the quality of life and leads to disability, high morbidity, and premature mortality. DM is a risk factor for cardiovascular, neurological, and renal diseases, and places a major burden on healthcare systems globally. Predicting the one-year mortality of patients with DM can considerably help clinicians tailor treatments to patients at risk. In this study, we aimed to show the feasibility of predicting the one-year mortality of DM patients based on administrative health data. We use clinical data for 472,950 patients that were admitted to hospitals across Kazakhstan between mid-2014 to December 2019 and were diagnosed with DM. The data was divided into four yearly-specific cohorts (2016-, 2017-, 2018-, and 2019-cohorts) to predict mortality within a specific year based on clinical and demographic information collected up to the end of the preceding year. We then develop a comprehensive machine learning platform to construct a predictive model of one-year mortality for each year-specific cohort. In particular, the study implements and compares the performance of nine classification rules for predicting the one-year mortality of DM patients. The results show that gradient-boosting ensemble learning methods perform better than other algorithms across all year-specific cohorts while achieving an area under the curve (AUC) between 0.78 and 0.80 on independent test sets. The feature importance analysis conducted by calculating SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) values shows that age, duration of diabetes, hypertension, and sex are the top four most important features for predicting one-year mortality. In conclusion, the results show that it is possible to use machine learning to build accurate predictive models of one-year mortality for DM patients based on administrative health data. In the future, integrating this information with laboratory data or patients' medical history could potentially boost the performance of the predictive models.

Review of the research databases on population-based Registries of Unified electronic Healthcare system of Kazakhstan (UNEHS): Possibilities and limitations for epidemiological research and Real-World Evidence

INTRODUCTION

A 'learning healthcare system', based on electronic health records and other routinely collected healthcare data, would allow Real World Data (RWD) to be continuously fed into the system, ensuring that with every new patient treated, we know more overall about the practice of medicine. A judicious use of RWD would complement the traditional evidence from clinical research, for the benefit of all stakeholders involved in healthcare. Lack of data on disease epidemiology in Kazakhstan resonates with lower life expectancy and poorer health indicators compared to countries with analogous income per capita. Usage of primary data collection methods to fill these gaps require additional financial and human resources. Usage of big data, which is routinely collected though healthcare information systems, is considered as a competitive alternative in described circumstances.

OBJECTIVE

Development of the Unified National Electronic Healthcare System (UNEHS) in Kazakhstan allowed the creation of research databases to investigate epidemiology of numerous diseases. UNEHS research databases endorse extensive research activities due to a prospective follow-up, coverage of the whole Kazakhstani population and relatively lower expenses to conduct epidemiological studies. This review paper aims to introduce the content and descriptive data on research databases on population-based registries of UNEHS and to discuss opportunities and limitations of its usage.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

UNEHS databases include medical data on 36.4% of an adult population of Kazakhstan. Research databases presented in this paper contain critical variables that can be utilized for investigation of disease epidemiology, effectiveness of provided medical procedures and infectious disease epidemiology. A few examples accompany a detailed elaboration on the possibilities of research database utilization in epidemiological research.

CONCLUSION

Considering numerous advantages, the UNEHS research databases are expected to greatly contribute to healthcare in Kazakhstan by providing critical data on disease epidemiology. To warrant long-term usage and high research output several concerns and limitations should be addressed as well.

The Regional Burden and Disability-Adjusted Life Years of Knee Osteoarthritis in Kazakhstan 2014-2020

A Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study reported that 9.6 million years lived with disability (YLDs) were lost due to hip and knee osteoarthritis (KOA) in 2017. Although the GBD study presents the disease burden at the global level, there is no information on any Central Asian country. This study aims to investigate the epidemiology of knee osteoarthritis in Kazakhstan. The data of 56,895 people with KOA between 2014-2020 was derived from the Unified National Electronic Health System of Kazakhstan and retrospectively analyzed. The majority of the cohort (76%) were women, of Kazakh ethnicity (66%), and older than 50 years of age (87%). The risk of gonarthrosis escalated for women after 50 years and peaked at 75 years with a rate of 3062 females admitted to hospital per 100,000 women in the population. This observation is approximately three times higher than for men of the same age group. A geographical analysis showed that the Jambyl oblast, West Kazakhstan, North Kazakhstan, and the Akmola oblast have the highest burden of disease. During the observation period, 127,077 age-adjusted YLDs were lost due to knee osteoarthritis. This is the first study in Kazakhstan to investigate the burden of knee osteoarthritis. This research recognizes age and sex-based differences, and regional disparities in the incidence of knee osteoarthritis. This knowledge can lead to the development of more specific diagnostic approaches and gender-personalized therapy protocols for patients.

Epidemiological characteristics and climatic variability of viral meningitis in Kazakhstan, 2014-2019

Background

The comprehensive epidemiology and impact of climate on viral meningitis (VM) in Kazakhstan are unknown. We aimed to study the incidence, in-hospital mortality and influence of climatic indicators on VM from 2014 to 2019.

Methods

Nationwide electronic healthcare records were used to explore this study. ICD-10 codes of VM, demographics, and hospital outcomes were evaluated using descriptive statistics and survival analysis.

Results

During the 2014-2019 period, 10,251 patients with VM were admitted to the hospital. 51.35% of them were children, 57.85% were males, and 85.9% were from the urban population. Enteroviral meningitis was the main cause of VM in children. The incidence rate was 13 and 18 cases per 100,000 population in 2014 and 2019, respectively. Case fatality rate was higher in 2015 (2.3%) and 2017 (2.0%). The regression model showed 1°C increment in the daily average temperature might be associated with a 1.05-fold (95% CI 1.047-1.051) increase in the daily rate of VM cases, 1hPa increment in the average air pressure and 1% increment in the daily average humidity might contribute to a decrease in the daily rate of VM cases with IRRs of 0.997 (95% CI 0.995-0.998) and 0.982 (95% CI 0.981-0.983), respectively. In-hospital mortality was 35% higher in males compared to females. Patients residing in rural locations had a 2-fold higher risk of in-hospital death, compared to city residents. Elderly patients had a 14-fold higher risk of in-hospital mortality, compared to younger patients.

Conclusion

This is the first study in Kazakhstan investigating the epidemiology and impact of climate on VM using nationwide healthcare data. There was a tendency to decrease the incidence with outbreaks every 5 years, and mortality rates were higher for Russians and other ethnicities compared to Kazakhs, for males compared to females, for elder patients compared to younger patients, and for patients living in rural areas compared to city residents. The climatic parameters and the days of delay indicated a moderate interaction with the VM cases.

Epidemiological characteristics and seasonal variation of measles, pertussis, and influenza in Kazakhstan between 2010-2020 years

<b>Background: </b>Vaccine-preventable diseases such as pertussis, measles, and influenza remain among the most significant medical and socioeconomic issues in Kazakhstan, despite significant vaccination achievements. Thus, here we aimed to analyze the long-term dynamics and provide information on the current epidemiology of pertussis, measles, and influenza in Kazakhstan.<br /> <b>Methods: </b>A retrospective analysis of the long-term dynamics of infectious diseases was carried out using the data from the statistical collections for 2010-2020 and the Unified Payment System from 2014 to 2020.<br /> <b>Results: </b>During the 2010-2020 years, the long-term dynamics show an unequal distribution of pertussis, measles, and influenza-related morbidity. In comparison with earlier years, registration of infectious disease was the highest in 2019 and 2020. The incidence cases among registered infectious diseases in 2019 were: pertussis-147, measles-13,326, and in 2020: influenza-2,678. High incidence rates have been documented in Pavlodar, North Kazakhstan, Mangystau regions, and the cities of Shymkent and Nur-Sultan. The incidence varies depending on the seasonality: pertussis (summer-autumn), measles (winter-spring), and influenza (mostly in winter).<br /> <b>Conclusion: </b>The findings highlight the importance of focusing more on the characteristics of the epidemic process of vaccine-preventable diseases in order to assess the effectiveness of implemented measures and verify new routes in strengthening the epidemiological surveillance system.

Prevalence, incidence, and mortality rates of breast cancer in Kazakhstan: data from the Unified National Electronic Health System, 2014-2019

Background

Although there are numerous sources of epidemiologic information on breast cancer in Kazakhstan, none of them have specifically examined the burden of this disease. Therefore, this article aims to provide an overview of the breast cancer prevalence, incidence, mortality, and distribution and changes over time in Kazakhstan based on nationwide large-scale healthcare data from the National Registry in order to encourage more research on the impact of various diseases at the regional and national levels.

Methods

The study cohort included all adult women older than 25 years who were diagnosed with breast cancer in any clinical setting of the Republic of Kazakhstan during the period of 2014-2019. The data were extracted from the Unified Nationwide Electronic Health System (UNEHS) to get an overview of descriptive statistics, incidence, prevalence, and mortality rate calculations and the Cox proportional hazards regression model. All survival functions and factors associated with mortality were tested for significance.

Results

The cohort population (n = 55,465) comprised subjects with the age at the diagnosis of breast cancer from 25 to 97 years, with a mean of 55.7 ± 12.0 years. The majority of the study population belonged to the age group 45-59 years, which is 44.8% of the cohort. The all-cause mortality rate of the cohort is 16%. The prevalence rate increased from 30.4 per 10,000 population in 2014 to 50.6 in 2019. The incidence rate varied from 4.5 per 10,000 population in 2015 to 7.3 in 2016. Mortality rates were stable and high in the senile age patients (75-89 years old). Breast cancer mortality was positively associated with women who had been diagnosed with diabetes, HR 1.2 (95% CI, 1.1-2.3), whereas it was negatively associated with arterial hypertension, HR 0.4 (95% CI, 0.4-0.5).

Conclusion

Overall, Kazakhstan is experiencing an increase in the incidence of breast cancer cases, but the mortality rate has started to decline. The switch to population mammography screening could reduce the breast cancer mortality rate. These findings should be utilized to help Kazakhstan determine what cancer control priorities should be utilized, including the need to implement efficient and affordable screening and prevention programs.

The Prevalence, Indications, Outcomes of the Most Common Major Gynecological Surgeries in Kazakhstan and Recommendations for Potential Improvements into Public Health and Clinical Practice: Analysis of the National Electronic Healthcare System (2014-2019)

OBJECTIVES

Major gynecological surgeries are indicated for the treatment of female genital pathologies. It is key to examine trends in gynecologic surgical procedures and updated recommendations by international gynecological societies to find opportunities for improvement of local guidelines. To date, a very limited number of reports have been published on the epidemiology of gynecological surgeries in Kazakhstan. Moreover, some local guidelines for gynecological conditions do not comply with the international recommendations. Thus, this study aims to investigate the prevalence, indications, and outcomes of the most common major gynecological surgeries by analyzing large-scale Kazakhstani healthcare data, and identifying possible opportunities for improvement of the local public health and clinical practice.

METHODS

A descriptive, population-based study among women who underwent a gynecological surgery in healthcare settings across the Republic of Kazakhstan during the period of 2014-2019 was performed. Data were collected from the Unified Nationwide Electronic Health System (UNEHS).

RESULTS

In total, 80,401 surgery cases were identified and analyzed in the UNEHS database for a period of 6 years (2014-2019). The median age of the participants was 40 years old, with 61.1% in reproductive age. The most prevalent intervention was a unilateral salpingectomy-29.4%, with 72.6% patients aged between 18-34 years. The proportion of different types of hysterectomies was 49.4%. In 20% of cases, subtotal abdominal hysterectomy was performed due to uterine leiomyoma. The proportion of laparoscopic procedures in Kazakhstani gynecological practice is as low-11.59%.

CONCLUSIONS

The Kazakhstani public health and gynecological care sector should reinforce implementation of contemporary treatment methods and up-to-date policies and guidelines. The overall trends in surgical procedures performed for gynecological pathologies, including uterine leiomyoma and ectopic pregnancy treatment, should be changed in favor of the minimally invasive methods in order to adopt a fertility-sparing approach.

Incidence and mortality rates of strokes in Kazakhstan in 2014-2019

There is a lack of information on the epidemiology of acute ischemic stroke (AIS), intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), and subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) in developing countries. This research presents incidence and mortality rates of stroke patients based on hospital admission and discharge status in one of the Central Asian countries by analysis of large-scale healthcare data. The registry data of 177,947 patients admitted to the hospital with the diagnosis of stroke between 2014 and 2019 were extracted from the National Electronic Health System of Kazakhstan. We provide descriptive statistics and analyze the association of socio-demographic and medical characteristics such as comorbidities and surgical treatments. Among all stroke patients, the incidence rate based on hospital admission of AIS was significantly higher compared to SAH and ICH patients. In 5 year follow-up period, AIS patients had a better outcome than SAH and ICH patients (64.7, 63.1 and 57.3% respectively). The hazard ratio (HR) after the trepanation and decompression surgery was 2.3 and 1.48 for AIS and SAH patients; however, it was protective for ICH (HR = 0.87). The investigation evaluated an increase in the all-cause mortality rates based on the discharge status of stroke patients, while the incidence rate decreased over time.

Epidemiology of Arterial Hypertension in Kazakhstan: Data from Unified Nationwide Electronic Healthcare System 2014–2019

The in-depth epidemiology of hypertension has not been studied in Kazakhstan (KZ) yet. We aimed to investigate the crude; age and sex standardized prevalence, incidence, and all-cause mortality rate among hypertensive patients in Kazakhstan using a large-scale Unified National Electronic Health System (UNEHS) for the period 2014–2019. Hypertension was defined based on the ICD-10 codes (ICD-code: I10; I11; I12; I13). Of 1,908,419 patients, 1,186,706 (62.18%) were females and 721,713 (37.82%) were males. The majority of the patients (56.3%) were ethnic Kazakhs, 26.6% were Russians, and 16.2% were of other ethnicities. In 2014, the crude rates of prevalence, incidence, and mortality were 3661, 1396.1, and 33.1 per 100,000 population, respectively. The overall prevalence, incidence, and mortality rates among hypertension patients had a gradual increase over the period 2014–2019. The sex and age adjusted rates demonstrate the same trend throughout the entire period. We observed 71% higher risk of crude death in males comparing to females (Hazard ratio (HR): 1.71 [95%CI: 1.69–1.72]); Russian and other ethnicities had 1.56-fold (95%CI: 1.54–1.58 and 1.43-fold (95%CI: 1.41–1.45) higher risk of all-cause death compared to Kazakhs, and the elderly group had the highest risk of death (Hazard ratio (HR): 35.68 [95%CI: 28.11–45.31]) comparing to the younger generation, which remained significant after adjustment to age and sex. Overall, these findings show statistically significant lower survival probability in male patients compared to female, in older patients compared to younger ones, and in patients of Russian and other ethnicities compared to Kazakh.

Diagnostics of Torsade de Pointes in an oncohematology patient: A case report

Complex heart rhythm disturbances due to cardiotoxicity may not be identified in time, and this may have an unfavorable outcome for patients. Holter monitoring can be a solution to prevent sudden cardiac death of oncohematology patients.