Ovarian cancer disease burden decreased in the United States from 1975 to 2018: A joinpoint and age-period-cohort analysis

Ovarian cancer (OC) is the leading cause of gynecological cancer-related deaths in the United States. The purpose of this study was to evaluate long-term trends in OC incidence and incidence-based mortality rates (IBM) in the U.S. from 1975 to 2018 and to assess the effects of age, period, and cohort factors on OC incidence and mortality using an age-period-cohort model. We obtained data from the U.S. OC incidence/mortality data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database from 1975 to 2018. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to determine long-term trends and transitions, and an age-period-cohort model was used to quantify the effects of age, period, and cohort parameters on incidence and mortality. In addition, 1990 to 2019 U.S. OC data obtained from the Global Burden of Disease study served as a potential validation set. Between 1975 and 2018, 80,622 new cases of OC and 60,218 deaths from OC were reported in the U.S. The average annual percent change for OC incidence was -1.33 (95% CI: -1.64 to -1.02, P < .001), with a significant decrease in incidence at a rate of 7.80% (95% CI: -11.52 to -3.92) per year from to 2015-2018. IBM reached its peak for the U.S. population in 1994, with an age-standardized mortality rate of 6.38 (per 100,000 people). IBM rose first, peaked in 1986, and then declined at a rate of 0.39% (95% CI: -0.66 to -0.12) and 2.48% (95% CI: -3.09 to -1.85) per year from to 1986-2007 and 2007-2018, respectively. In addition, age-period-cohort model analysis showed the highest risk of OC incidence in 1980 to 1984 and the highest risk of OC death in 1985-1989. This study reported a significant decline in OC morbidity and mortality in the U.S. since 1986. In addition, this study analyzed the changes in trends in OC incidence and mortality by race/ethnicity in the U.S. Monitoring trends in OC incidence and mortality by race/ethnicity can help in the development of targeted prevention and treatment measures.

Trends of chronic lymphocytic leukemia incidence and mortality in the United States: a population-based study over the last four decades

BACKGROUND

Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) is the most common leukemia among adults, and its incidence is higher in elderly individuals. This study aims to examine the burden of CLL in the United States (US) by exploring the incidence-based rates (IBR) and incidence-based mortality (IBMR) across four decades.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

CLL incidence data were obtained from the SEER-8 registry, covering 8.3% of the US population. Cases were identified using specific diagnostic codes and excluded if diagnosed on autopsy or death certificate. Age-standardized IBR and IBMR were calculated based on age, sex, and ethnicity/race. Joinpoint Regression Program was used to analyze changing trends in incidence and mortality.

RESULTS

Since 2011, males' and females' IBRs declined by -1.72%/year (p = 0.028) and -1.07%/year (p = 0.222), respectively. IBR of patients > 75 years increased by 4.01%/year (p < 0.001) form 1998-2010, then declined by 2.02%/year (p = 0.011). IBR of Blacks increased by 0.96%/year (p < 0.001) throughout the study period. CLL IBMR stabilized at -0.38%/year (p = 0.457) since 2012. Whites' IBMR plateaued at a rate of -0.10%/year (p = 0.857) form 2012-2019, while blacks' IBMR increased by 1.40%/year (p = 0.056) between 2000-2019.

CONCLUSIONS

The analysis revealed a decline in CLL incidence since 2013, with stable mortality rates since 2012, indicating advancements in CLL management.

Incidence and mortality trends in gastric cancer in the United States, 1992-2019

Our study aimed to estimate the epidemiological trends of gastric cancer in the United States from 1992 to 2019. This population-based study used the US Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results-12 database as a fundamental cohort to analyze gastric cancer incidence, incidence-based mortality (IBM), overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) probabilities from 1992 to 2019. The Global Burden of Disease study (1990-2018) was used as a likely validation cohort. Age-period-cohort analyses were performed to explore the underlying causes of trend changes. We found that the incidence rate of gastric cancer decreased from 1992 to 2019. IBM also decreased significantly from 1997 to 2019. The 3-year OS and CSS of gastric cancer increased from 22.3% to 28.7% and 25.7% to 33.5%, respectively. However, the proportion of distant gastric cancer cases had unexpectedly increased rapidly from 33.1% in 1992 to 44.7% in 2019. Age-period-cohort modeling found that the incidence and IBM rates remained stable in the groups aged below 50 years, while that in all age groups older than 50 years showed a significant downward trend. High incidence and mortality risks were observed in the younger birth cohorts (birth year after 1990). To conclude, we observed a decline in incidence and mortality rates of gastric cancer in the United States in the past decades. We determined that progression of primary and tertiary preventive measures is the main reason for the reduction in the disease burden of gastric cancer. However, secondary preventive measures for gastric cancer still need to be strengthened.

Trends in cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma on the lip incidence and mortality in the United States, 2000-2019

Objective

This study provided a systematic analysis of the trend in incidence and incidence-based mortality for cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC) on the lips in the USA using demographic characteristics from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database.

Methods

Patients diagnosed with cSCC on the lips between 2000 and 2019 from the 17 registries of the USA were identified. Incidence and incidence-based mortality rates were analyzed using SEER*Stat 8.4.0.1 software. This paper calculated incidence rates and incidence-based mortality rates by 100,000 person-years for sex, age, race, SEER registries, median household income ($/year), rural-urban distribution, and primary site. The annual percent changes (APC) in incidence and incidence-based mortality rates were then calculated using joinpoint regression software.

Results

Among 8,625 patients diagnosed with cSCC on the lips from 2000 to 2019, men (74.67%), white (95.21%), and 60-79 years old were the most common population, and 3,869 deaths from cSCC on the lips occurred. The overall incidence of cSCC on the lips was 0.516 per 100,000 person-years. cSCC on the lip incidence rates were highest among men, white, and patients aged 60-79 years old. cSCC on the lip incidence rates decreased by 3.210%/year over the study period. The incidence of cSCC on the lips has been decreasing in all sexes, ages, high- or low-income households, and urban or rural patients. The overall incidence-based mortality rate of cSCC on the lips during 2000-2019 was 0.235 per 100,000 person-years. cSCC on the lip incidence-based mortality rates were highest among men, whites, and people older than 80 years old. cSCC on the lip incidence-based mortality increased by 4.975%/year over the study period. cSCC on the lip incidence-based mortality rates increased for all sexes, races, ages, primary sites, high- or low-income households, and urban or rural patients during the study period.

Conclusion

Among patients in the USA diagnosed with cSCC on the lips from 2000 to 2019, the overall incidence decreased by 3.210% annually, and incidence-based mortality increased by 4.975%/year. These findings update and supplement the epidemiological information of cSCC on the lips in the USA.

Trends in Intracranial Glioma Incidence and Mortality in the United States, 1975-2018

Purpose

Glioma incidence in the US seems to have stabilized over the past 20 years. It’s also not clear whether changes in glioblastoma incidence are associated with glioma mortality trends. Our study investigated trends in glioma incidence and mortality according to tumor characteristics.

Methods

This study obtained data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-9 (SEER-9) registries to calculate glioma incidence and mortality trends. Annual percent changes (APC) and 95% CIs were calculated using the Joinpoint program.

Results

62,159 patients (34,996 males and 55,424 whites) were diagnosed with glioma during 1975-2018, and 31,922 deaths occurred from 1995-2018. Glioblastoma (32,893 cases) and non-glioblastoma astrocytoma (17,406 cases) were the most common histologic types. During the study period, the incidence of glioma first experienced a significant increase (APC=1.8%, [95% CI, 1.3% to 2.3%]) from 1975 to 1987, and then experienced a slight decrease (APC=-0.4%, [95% CI, -0.5% to -0.3%]) from 1987 to 2018, while the APC was 0.8% for glioblastoma, -2.0% for non-glioblastoma astrocytoma, 1.1% for oligodendroglial tumors, 0.7% for ependymoma and -0.3% for glioma NOS during the study period. Glioblastoma incidence increased for all tumor size and tumor extension except for distant. From 1995 to 2018, glioma mortality declined 0.4% per year (95% CI: -0.6% to -0.2%) but only increased in patients older than 80 years [APC=1.0%, (95% CI, 0.4% to 1.6%)].

Conclusion

Significant decline in glioma incidence (1987-2018) and mortality (1995-2018) were observed. Epidemiological changes in non-glioblastoma astrocytoma contributed the most to overall trends in glioma incidence and mortality. These findings can improve understanding of risk factors and guide the focus of glioma therapy.

Analysis of Trends in Race and Gender Disparities in Incidence-Based Mortality in Patients Diagnosed with Soft Tissue Sarcomas from 2000 to 2016

Background

The clinical course of soft tissue sarcomas is often dependent on the grade of the tumor. The variability of incidence-based mortality in low-grade and high-grade soft tissue sarcomas (STS) with respect to gender and race over the past decade has not been well studied. This study analyzes the rates of incidence-based mortality from the years 2000 to 2016 amongst the grades, genders and racial groups of patients with STS.

Methods

The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database was queried to conduct a nation-wide analysis for the years 2000 to 2016. Incidence-based mortality for all stages of low-grade and high-grade soft tissue sarcomas was queried and the results were grouped by race (Caucasian/White vs African American/Black) and gender. All stages and ages were included in the analysis and trend from 2000 to 2016 was analyzed.

Results

The incidence-based mortality rates for Caucasians are similar to African Americans in both grades and genders. Rates were not analyzed for American Indian and Asian/Pacific Islanders due to small sample size. Mortality rates of high-grade soft tissue sarcomas were significantly higher compared to low-grade tumors. A higher rate of mortality is noted in Caucasian males compared to African Americans males despite past observations of higher incidence in African Americans. There was no significant change in the rate when trended over the past decade (2007 to 2016).

Conclusion

This study highlights the higher rate of incidence-based mortality in Caucasian males compared to African American males in the past 15 years despite a lower incidence reported in the 1995 to 2008 period. With no significant change in mortality rates/year noted during this time period, this study implies that soft tissue sarcomas in Caucasian males have worse outcomes. Further research is needed to understand the mechanism underlying this disparity.

The Impact of Liver Transplantation on Hepatocellular Carcinoma Mortality in the United States

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) carries a poor prognosis. Liver transplantation (LT) is potentially curative for localized HCC. We evaluated the impact of LT on U.S. general population HCC-specific mortality rates.

METHODS

The Transplant Cancer Match Study links the U.S. transplant registry with 17 cancer registries. We calculated age-standardized incidence (1987-2017) and incidence-based mortality (IBM) rates (1991-2017) for adult HCCs. We partitioned population-level IBM rates by cancer stage and calculated counterfactual IBM rates assuming transplanted cases had not received a transplant.

RESULTS

Among 129,487 HCC cases, 45.9% had localized cancer. HCC incidence increased on average 4.0% annually [95% confidence interval (CI) = 3.6-4.5]. IBM also increased for HCC overall (2.9% annually; 95% CI = 1.7-4.2) and specifically for localized stage HCC (4.8% annually; 95% CI = 4.0-5.5). The proportion of HCC-related transplants jumped sharply from 6.7% (2001) to 18.0% (2002), and further increased to 40.0% (2017). HCC-specific mortality declined among both nontransplanted and transplanted cases over time. In the absence of transplants, IBM for localized HCC would have increased at 5.3% instead of 4.8% annually.

CONCLUSIONS

LT has provided survival benefit to patients with localized HCC. However, diagnosis of many cases at advanced stages, limited availability of donor livers, and improved mortality for patients without transplants have limited the impact of transplantation on general population HCC-specific mortality rates.

IMPACT

Although LT rates continue to rise, better screening and treatment modalities are needed to halt the rising HCC mortality rates in the United States.See related commentary by Zhang and Thrift, p. 435.

Analysis of Race and Gender Disparities in Incidence-Based Mortality in Patients Diagnosed with Thyroid Cancer from 2000 to 2016

Background

Well-differentiated thyroid cancer has better outcomes compared to undifferentiated/anaplastic thyroid cancer. The incidence of well-differentiated thyroid cancer is known to be more in women whereas it is approximately the same in both genders for anaplastic thyroid cancer. The variability of incidence-based mortality across gender in the context of race has not been studied. This study analyzes the rates of incidence-based mortality from the years 2000 to 2016 amongst both the genders in four racial groups.

Methods

The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database was utilized to conduct a nation-wide analysis for the years 2000 to 2016. Incidence-based mortality for all stages of well-differentiated and undifferentiated thyroid cancer was queried and the results were grouped by race (Caucasian/White, African American/Black, American Indian/Alaskan Native and Asian/Pacific Islander) and gender. All stages and ages were included in the analysis. Two sample t-test was used to determine statistically significant difference between various subgroups.

Results

Incidence-based mortality rates (per 100,000) for well-differentiated and undifferentiated thyroid cancer for all races and both the genders were calculated. The incidence-based mortality rates for both genders are approximately the same despite a 2–3:1 difference in incidence. Anaplastic thyroid cancer has a higher mortality rate in Caucasian and Asian/Pacific Islander women compared to men despite an equal ratio in incidence. As expected, the mortality rates of anaplastic thyroid cancer were significantly higher compared to well-differentiated cancer across all races and genders. Also, Asian/Pacific Islander women have a higher rate of mortality compared to both the genders of Caucasian and African American races.

Conclusion

Incidence-based mortality for anaplastic thyroid cancer is higher in women in all races whereas there is no difference in mortality between men and women for well-differentiated thyroid cancer. This is divergent from the incidence ratios noted in these malignancies. In the context of increasing incidence of thyroid cancer for the past few decades, this data suggests that additional resources may be devoted to decreasing the disparity of mortality in this gender.

Trends in Incidence and Mortality of Waldenström Macroglobulinemia: A Population-Based Study

Background: The incidence of Waldenström macroglobulinemia (WM) has increased in certain groups over several decades in the United States. It is unclear whether the increasing incidence is associated with mortality trends. Methods: The incidence and incidence-based mortality (IBM) rates were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database (1980-2016) with SEER^*Stat software. The secular trends stratified by demographic characteristics were analyzed by joinpoint regression. Results: The incidence of WM showed an initial rapid increase from 1980 to 1993 {annual percentage change (APC), 14.1% [95% confidence interval (CI), 10 to 18.4%]}, whereas it began to stabilize from 1993 to 2016 [APC, 0.5% (95% CI, -0.3 to 1.3%)]. The WM IBM trend followed a similar pattern, with a decrease occurring around 1994. The trends in the incidence and mortality significantly differed according to geographic location, race, age, sex, primary site of involvement and subtype, which could help in further investigations into the specific etiology. Moreover, a dramatic increase in the 5-year survival rate from the 1980s to 2010s was observed (47.84 vs. 69.41%). Conclusions: Although both the incidence and IBM of WM continued to increase during the study period, a reduction in the rate of increase occurred around 1993. We believe that further advances in healthcare delivery and research can ensure a low mortality rate. Future studies can use the findings of this paper to monitor the results of WM therapy.

Rising Incidence and Incidence-Based Mortality of Thyroid Cancer in California, 2000-2017

CONTEXT

The increased incidence of thyroid cancer globally over the past several decades is principally attributed to small, indolent papillary thyroid cancers. A possible concomitant increase in thyroid cancer-specific mortality remains debated.

OBJECTIVE

The changes in thyroid cancer incidence and incidence-based mortality were assessed using a large population-based cohort over an 18-year period.

DESIGN & PATIENTS

A retrospective analysis of all thyroid cancers reported in the California Cancer Registry was performed (2000-2017). Age-adjusted incidence and incidence-based mortality rates were analyzed using a log-linear model to estimate annual percent change.

RESULTS

We identified 69 684 individuals (76% female, median age 50 years) diagnosed with thyroid cancer. The incidence of thyroid cancer increased across all histological subtypes (papillary, follicular, medullary, and anaplastic) and all tumor sizes. The incidence increased from 6.43 to 11.13 per 100 000 person-years (average increase 4% per year; P < 0.001) over the study period. Thyroid cancer-specific mortality rates increased on average by 1.7% per year (P < 0.001). The increased mortality rates were greater in men (2.7% per year, P < 0.001) and patients with larger tumors (2-4 cm) (3.4% per year, P < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Data from this statewide registry demonstrate that the incidence of thyroid cancer is increasing, and that this phenomenon is not restricted to small papillary thyroid cancers. Rising incidence in thyroid cancers of all sizes with concurrent increase of incidence-based mortality in men and those with larger tumors suggest a true increase in clinically significant disease.

Worldwide Review and Meta-Analysis of Cohort Studies Measuring the Effect of Mammography Screening Programmes on Incidence-Based Breast Cancer Mortality

In 2012, the Euroscreen project published a review of incidence-based mortality evaluations of breast cancer screening programmes. In this paper, we update this review to October 2019 and expand its scope from Europe to worldwide. We carried out a systematic review of incidence-based mortality studies of breast cancer screening programmes, and a meta-analysis of the estimated effects of both invitation to screening and attendance at screening, with adjustment for self-selection bias, on incidence-based mortality from breast cancer. We found 27 valid studies. The results of the meta-analysis showed a significant 22% reduction in breast cancer mortality with invitation to screening, with a relative risk of 0.78 (95% CI 0.75-0.82), and a significant 33% reduction with actual attendance at screening (RR 0.67, 95% CI 0.61-0.75). Breast cancer screening in the routine healthcare setting continues to confer a substantial reduction in mortality from breast cancer.

Incidence and Mortality Trends and Risk Prediction Nomogram for Extranodal Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma: An Analysis of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Database

Background: DLBCL is the most commonly occurring type of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, which may be found at various extranodal sites. But little is known about the particular trends of extranodal DLBCL. Methods: A total of 15,882 extranodal DLBCL patients were included in incidence analysis from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database (1973-2015). The joinpoint regression software was used to calculate the annual percent change (APC) in rates. Nomograms were established by R software to predict overall survival (OS). Results: The extranodal DLBCL incidence continued to rise at a rate of 1.6% (95% CI, 0.4-2.8, p < 0.001) per year over the study period, until it declined around 2003. The incidence-based mortality trend of extranodal DLBCL had a similar pattern, with a decrease happening around 1993. Five-year survival rates improved dramatically from the 1970s to 2010s (44.15 vs. 63.7%), and the most obvious increase occurred in DLBCL patients with primary site in the head/neck. The C-index showed a value for OS of 0.708, which validated the nomograms performed well and were able to forecast the prognosis of patients with extranodal DLBCL. The calibration curves showed satisfactory consistency between true values and predicted values for 1-, 5-, and 10-year overall survival, respectively. Conclusions: The incidence and incidence-based mortality of extranodal DLBCL had been increasing for decades, followed by a promising downward trend in recent years. These findings may help scientists identify disease-related risk factors and better manage the disease. The prediction signature cloud identifies high-risk patients who should receive effective therapies to prevent the fatal nature of this disease, and low-risk patients to reduce over-treatment.

Cancer incidence and mortality patterns in women with breast symptoms in the mammography screening programme: A matched cohort analysis

Efforts to reduce mortality through early detection and diagnosis has intensified in the recent decade. An important risk factor, 'breast symptoms' reported by women during screening visit, remains overlooked. In this population based matched cohort study using Finnish National Breast Cancer Screening Program (FNBCSP), we assessed the association between breast symptoms reported at screening visit and the risk of cancer incidence and breast cancer mortality and all-cause mortality followed-up over a period of 24 years. For each visit with symptoms, non-symptomatic controls were matched (1:1 for lump and retraction; 1:2 for nipple discharge) based on age at screening visit, year of invitation, number of invited visits, and municipality of invitation. Women who reported lump or retraction had about two-fold risk of breast cancer incidence, three-fold risk of breast cancer mortality and all-cause mortality respectively as compared to women without respective symptoms (p-value<0.05). We found a substantial difference (p-value<0.05) in mortality rates throughout the follow-up period between symptomatic and asymptomatic group. In absolute terms, after the follow-up period for women who reported lump, 180 died from breast cancer as compared to 70 deaths in those without lump, per 10,000 person-years of follow-up, and 315 versus 160 all-cause deaths per 10,000 person-years in women with and without lump respectively. our study provides comprehensive evidence that women with breast symptoms remain in a higher risk of dying over a very long period. The findings indicate needs to develop improvements in the guidelines for screening and clinical services for women presenting with symptoms.

The effect of mammography screening regimen on incidence-based breast cancer mortality

OBJECTIVES

Incidence-based mortality quantifies the distribution of cancer deaths and life-years lost, according to age at detection. We investigated the temporal distribution of the disease burden, and the effect of starting and stopping ages and interval between screening mammography examinations, on incidence-based mortality.

METHODS

Incidence-based mortality was estimated using an established breast cancer simulation model, adapted and validated to simulate breast cancer incidence, screening performance, and delivery of therapies in Canada. Ten strategies were examined, with varying starting age (40 or 50), stopping age (69 or 74), and interval (1, 2, 3 years), and "No Screening." Life-years lost were computed as the difference between model predicted time of breast cancer death and that estimated from life tables.

RESULTS

Without screening, 70% of the burden in terms of breast cancer deaths extends between ages 45 and 75. The mean of the distribution of ages of detection of breast cancers that will be fatal in an unscreened population is 61.8 years, while the mean age of detection weighted by the number of life-years lost is 55, a downward shift of 6.8 years. Similarly, the mean age of detection for the distribution of life-years gained through screening is lower than that for breast cancer deaths averted.

CONCLUSION

Incidence-based mortality predictions from modeling elucidate the age dependence of the breast cancer burden and can provide guidance for optimizing the timing of screening regimens to achieve maximal impact. Of the regimens studied, the greatest lifesaving effect was achieved with annual screening beginning at age 40.