Comparison of Secular Trends in Peptic Ulcer Diseases Mortality in China, Brazil and India during 1990-2019: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

BACKGROUND

Peptic ulcer disease (PUD) is a common disease worldwide, especially in developing countries. China, Brazil, and India are among the world's fastest-growing emerging economies. This study aimed to assess long-term trends in PUD mortality and explore the effects of age, period, and cohort in China, Brazil, and India.

METHODS

We collected data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study and used an age-period-cohort (APC) model to estimate the effects of age, period, and cohort. We also obtained net drift, local drift, longitudinal age curve, and period/cohort rate ratios using the APC model.

RESULTS

Between 1990 and 2019, the age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) of PUD and PUD attributable to smoking showed a downward trend in all countries and both sexes. The local drift values for both sexes of all ages were below zero, and there were obvious sex differences in net drifts between China and India. India had a more pronounced upward trend in the age effects than other countries. The period and cohort effects had a similar declining trend in all countries and both sexes.

CONCLUSIONS

China, Brazil, and India had an inspiring decrease in the ASMRs of PUD and PUD attributable to smoking and to period and cohort effects during 1990-2019. The decreasing rates of Helicobacter pylori infection and the implementation of tobacco-restricting policies may have contributed to this decrease.

Cost-effectiveness of screening with polymerase chain reaction for Helicobacter pylori to prevent gastric cancer and peptic ulcers

Background

Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) is a major risk factor for gastric cancer. Screening and treatment of H. pylori may reduce the risk of gastric cancer and peptic ulcer disease (PUD). Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) of gastric biopsies provides superior sensitivity and specificity for the detection of H. pylori. This study explores whether population-based H. pylori screening with PCR is cost-effective in the US.

Methods

A Markov cohort state-transition model was developed to compare three strategies: no screening with opportunistic eradication, ¹³C-UBT population screening and treating of H. pylori, and PCR population screening and treating of H. pylori. Estimates of risks and costs were obtained from published literature. Since the efficacy of H. pylori therapy in gastric cancer prevention is not certain, we broadly varied the benefit 30-100% in sensitivity analysis.

Results

PCR screening was cost-effective and had an incremental-cost effectiveness ratio per quality adjusted life-year (QALY) of $38,591.89 when compared to ¹³C-UBT strategy with an ICER of $2,373.43 per QALY. When compared to no screening, PCR population screening reduced cumulative gastric cancer incidence from 0.84% to 0.74% and reduced PUD risk from 14.8% to 6.0%. The cost-effectiveness of PCR screening was robust to most parameters in the model.

Conclusions

Our modeling study finds PCR screening and treating of H. pylori to be cost-effective in the prevention of gastric cancer and PUD. However, the potential negative consequences of H. pylori eradication such as antibiotic resistance could change the balance of benefits of population screening.

Gastric Cancer in History: A Perspective Interdisciplinary Study

Background: Gastric adenocarcinoma is the fourth most common type of cancer and the second leading cause of cancer death in the world. Despite abundant traces of an ancient history, the comprehension of its pathogenic mechanisms is rather recent and continuously updated. Methods: We investigated about how the ancient civilizations tried to understand the exactly physiopathology of gastric cancer, from the time when they could not examine deeply the histological and pathophysiologic aspects of the disease, but they just based their knowledge on a visual analysis of the signs and consequences of such disease. We examined the historical evolving knowledge of the disease along the centuries on the gastroenterological, pharmacological, and surgical fields, defining how gastric cancer became an increasingly curable disease. Results: Cancer was known in the ancient world. Ancient people did not know exactly the causes but the climatic, hygienic, and food conditions were the first to be considered over time, also taking into consideration supernatural negative influences. During the Renaissance, a tumultuous time of scientific discoveries started, thanks to an increasing number of autopsies made on cadavers and to the progressions in visual analysis of the stomach mucosa throughout endoscopy. From the first gastric surgery in 1879, many steps forward have been made and, today, gastric cancer is regarded as a more curable disease; one important discovery in this field has been the revelation of the role of Helicobacter pylori in the peptic ulcer disease (PUD) and in some forms of gastric lymphoma. Conclusions: Gastric cancer has the fourth highest incidence of various cancers worldwide and is ranked second as a cause of cancer-related death. It exists from the antiquity and a lot of hypotheses have been developed about its etiology during the centuries, influencing its therapy. During the 20th century, thanks to the scientific and technological progresses the causes of the cancer have been discovered and the role of the bacterium Helicobacter pylori has been demonstrated, and new perspective research are currently trying to investigate the role of other microorganisms in gastric physiopathology, as well as its possible modulation by probiotics.