Preinfection Neutralizing Antibodies, Omicron BA.5 Breakthrough Infection, and Long COVID: A Propensity Score-Matched Analysis

BACKGROUND

Data are limited on the role of preinfection humoral immunity protection against Omicron BA.5 infection and long coronavirus disease (COVID) development.

METHODS

We conducted nested case-control analysis among tertiary hospital staff in Tokyo who donated blood samples in June 2022 (1 month before Omicron BA.5 wave), approximately 6 months after receiving a third dose of COVID-19 mRNA vaccine. We measured live virus-neutralizing antibody titers against wild type and Omicron BA.5, and anti-receptor-binding domain (RBD) antibody titers at preinfection, and compared them between cases and propensity-matched controls. Among the breakthrough cases, we examined association between preinfection antibody titers and incidence of long COVID.

RESULTS

Preinfection anti-RBD and neutralizing antibody titers were lower in cases than controls. Neutralizing titers against wild type and Omicron BA.5 were 64% (95% confidence interval [CI], 42%-77%) and 72% (95% CI, 53%-83%) lower, respectively, in cases than controls. Individuals with previous Omicron BA.1/BA.2 infections were more frequent among controls than cases (10.3% vs 0.8%), and their Omicron BA.5 neutralizing titers were 12.8-fold higher than infection-naive individuals. Among cases, preinfection antibody titers were not associated with incidence of long COVID.

CONCLUSIONS

Preinfection immunogenicity against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) may play a role in protecting against the Omicron BA.5 infection but not preventing long COVID.

Outcomes of laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection during resurgence driven by Omicron lineages BA.4 and BA.5 compared with previous waves in the Western Cape Province, South Africa

Objective

We aimed to compare clinical severity of Omicron BA.4/BA.5 infection with BA.1 and earlier variant infections among laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases in the Western Cape, South Africa, using timing of infection to infer the lineage/variant causing infection.

Methods

We included public sector patients aged ≥20 years with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 between 1-21 May 2022 (BA.4/BA.5 wave) and equivalent prior wave periods. We compared the risk between waves of (i) death and (ii) severe hospitalization/death (all within 21 days of diagnosis) using Cox regression adjusted for demographics, comorbidities, admission pressure, vaccination and prior infection.

Results

Among 3,793 patients from the BA.4/BA.5 wave and 190,836 patients from previous waves the risk of severe hospitalization/death was similar in the BA.4/BA.5 and BA.1 waves (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.12; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.93; 1.34). Both Omicron waves had lower risk of severe outcomes than previous waves. Prior infection (aHR 0.29, 95% CI 0.24; 0.36) and vaccination (aHR 0.17; 95% CI 0.07; 0.40 for boosted vs. no vaccine) were protective.

Conclusion

Disease severity was similar amongst diagnosed COVID-19 cases in the BA.4/BA.5 and BA.1 periods in the context of growing immunity against SARS-CoV-2 due to prior infection and vaccination, both of which were strongly protective.

Outcomes of laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection in the Omicron-driven fourth wave compared with previous waves in the Western Cape Province, South Africa

OBJECTIVES

The objective was to compare COVID-19 outcomes in the Omicron-driven fourth wave with prior waves in the Western Cape, assess the contribution of undiagnosed prior infection to differences in outcomes in a context of high seroprevalence due to prior infection and determine whether protection against severe disease conferred by prior infection and/or vaccination was maintained.

METHODS

In this cohort study, we included public sector patients aged ≥20 years with a laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis between 14 November and 11 December 2021 (wave four) and equivalent prior wave periods. We compared the risk between waves of the following outcomes using Cox regression: death, severe hospitalisation or death and any hospitalisation or death (all ≤14 days after diagnosis) adjusted for age, sex, comorbidities, geography, vaccination and prior infection.

RESULTS

We included 5144 patients from wave four and 11,609 from prior waves. The risk of all outcomes was lower in wave four compared to the Delta-driven wave three (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) [95% confidence interval (CI)] for death 0.27 [0.19; 0.38]. Risk reduction was lower when adjusting for vaccination and prior diagnosed infection (aHR: 0.41, 95% CI: 0.29; 0.59) and reduced further when accounting for unascertained prior infections (aHR: 0.72). Vaccine protection was maintained in wave four (aHR for outcome of death: 0.24; 95% CI: 0.10; 0.58).

CONCLUSIONS

In the Omicron-driven wave, severe COVID-19 outcomes were reduced mostly due to protection conferred by prior infection and/or vaccination, but intrinsically reduced virulence may account for a modest reduction in risk of severe hospitalisation or death compared to the Delta-driven wave.

COVID-19 pandemic dynamics in India, the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant and implications for vaccination

The Delta variant is a major SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern first identified in India. To better understand COVID-19 pandemic dynamics and Delta, we use multiple datasets and model-inference to reconstruct COVID-19 pandemic dynamics in India during March 2020-June 2021. We further use the large discrepancy in one- and two-dose vaccination coverage in India (53% versus 23% by end of October 2021) to examine the impact of vaccination and whether prior non-Delta infection can boost vaccine effectiveness (VE). We estimate that Delta escaped immunity in 34.6% (95% CI: 0-64.2%) of individuals with prior wild-type infection and was 57.0% (95% CI: 37.9-75.6%) more infectious than wild-type SARS-CoV-2. Models assuming higher VE among non-Delta infection recoverees, particularly after the first dose, generated more accurate predictions than those assuming no such increases (best-performing VE setting: 90/95% versus 30/67% baseline for the first/second dose). Counterfactual modelling indicates that high vaccination coverage for first vaccine dose in India combined with the boosting of VE among recoverees averted around 60% of infections during July-mid-October 2021. These findings provide support to prioritizing first-dose vaccination in regions with high underlying infection rates, given continued vaccine shortages and new variant emergence.

A Single Dose of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 Vaccine Elicits High Antibody Responses in Individuals with Prior SARS-CoV-2 Infection Comparable to That of Two-Dose-Vaccinated, SARS-CoV-2-Infection-Naïve Individuals: A Longitudinal Study in Ethiopian Health Workers

Single-dose COVID-19 vaccines, mostly mRNA-based vaccines, are shown to induce robust antibody responses in individuals who were previously infected with SARS-CoV-2, suggesting the sufficiency of a single dose for those individuals in countries with limited vaccine supply. However, these important data are limited to developed nations. We conducted a prospective longitudinal study among Ethiopian healthcare workers who received a ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine. We compared the geometric mean titers (GMTs) of the SARS-CoV-2 receptor-binding domain (RBD)-specific IgG antibodies in 39 SARS-CoV-2 naïve participants and 24 participants previously infected with SARS-CoV-2 (P.I.), who received two doses of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine across the two post-vaccination time points (at 8 to 12 weeks post single dose and two dose vaccinations). We noted that the GMT (1632.16) in naïve participants at 8-12 weeks post first dose were comparable to the GMT (1674.94) observed in P.I. participants prior to vaccination. Interestingly, P.I. participants had significantly higher antibody titers compared to naïve participants, after both the first (GMT, 4913.50 vs. 1632.16) and second doses (GMT, 9804.60 vs. 6607.30). Taken together, our findings show that a single ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 dose in previously SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals elicits similar, if not higher, antibody responses to those of two-dose-vaccinated naïve individuals.

Twelve-Month Longitudinal Serology in SARS-CoV-2 Naïve and Experienced Vaccine Recipients and Unvaccinated COVID-19-Infected Individuals

Longitudinal data comparing SARS-CoV-2 serology in individuals following infection and vaccination over 12 months are limited. This study compared the magnitude, decay, and variability in serum IgG, IgA, and neutralizing activity induced by natural infection (n = 218) or mRNA vaccination in SARS-CoV-2 naïve (n = 143) or experienced (n = 122) individuals over time using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays and an in vitro virus neutralization assay. Serological responses were found to be highly variable after natural infection compared with vaccination but durable through 12 months. Antibody levels in vaccinated, SARS-CoV-2 naïve individuals peaked by 1 month then declined through 9 months, culminating in non-detectable SARS-CoV-2-specific serum IgA. Individuals with both infection and vaccination showed SARS-CoV-2-specific IgG and IgA levels that were more robust and slower to decline than the other groups; neutralizing activity remained highest in this group at 9 months past vaccination. These data reinforce the benefit of vaccination after SARS-CoV-2 recovery.

Similarity of Protection Conferred by Previous SARS-CoV-2 Infection and by BNT162b2 Vaccine: A 3-Month Nationwide Experience From Israel

The worldwide shortage of vaccination against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection while the pandemic still remains uncontrolled has led many countries to the dilemma of whether or not to vaccinate previously infected persons. Understanding the level of protection conferred by previous infection compared with that of vaccination is important for policy-making. We analyzed an updated individual-level database of the entire population of Israel to assess the protection provided by both prior infection and vaccination in preventing subsequent SARS-CoV-2 infection, hospitalization with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), severe disease, and death due to COVID-19. Outcome data were collected from December 20, 2020, to March 20, 2021. Vaccination was highly protective, with overall estimated effectiveness of 94.5% (95% confidence interval (CI): 94.3, 94.7) for documented infection, 95.8% (95% CI: 95.2, 96.2) for hospitalization, 96.3% (95% CI: 95.7, 96.9) for severe illness, and 96.0% (95% CI: 94.9, 96.9) for death. Similarly, the overall estimated level of protection provided by prior SARS-CoV-2 infection was 94.8% (95% CI: 94.4, 95.1) for documented infection, 94.1% (95% CI: 91.9, 95.7) for hospitalization, and 96.4% (95% CI: 92.5, 98.3) for severe illness. Our results should be considered by policy-makers when deciding whether or not to prioritize vaccination of previously infected adults.

Outcomes of laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection in the Omicron-driven fourth wave compared with previous waves in the Western Cape Province, South Africa

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to compare COVID-19 outcomes in the Omicron-driven fourth wave with prior waves in the Western Cape, the contribution of undiagnosed prior infection to differences in outcomes in a context of high seroprevalence due to prior infection, and whether protection against severe disease conferred by prior infection and/or vaccination was maintained.

METHODS

In this cohort study, we included public sector patients aged ≥20 years with a laboratory confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis between 14 November-11 December 2021 (wave four) and equivalent prior wave periods. We compared the risk between waves of the following outcomes using Cox regression: death, severe hospitalization or death and any hospitalization or death (all ≤14 days after diagnosis) adjusted for age, sex, comorbidities, geography, vaccination and prior infection.

RESULTS

We included 5,144 patients from wave four and 11,609 from prior waves. Risk of all outcomes was lower in wave four compared to the Delta-driven wave three (adjusted Hazard Ratio (aHR) [95% confidence interval (CI)] for death 0.27 [0.19; 0.38]. Risk reduction was lower when adjusting for vaccination and prior diagnosed infection (aHR:0.41, 95% CI: 0.29; 0.59) and reduced further when accounting for unascertained prior infections (aHR: 0.72). Vaccine protection was maintained in wave four (aHR for outcome of death: 0.24; 95% CI: 0.10; 0.58).

CONCLUSIONS

In the Omicron-driven wave, severe COVID-19 outcomes were reduced mostly due to protection conferred by prior infection and/or vaccination, but intrinsically reduced virulence may account for an approximately 25% reduced risk of severe hospitalization or death compared to Delta.

A single dose ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine elicits high antibody responses in individuals with prior SARS-CoV-2 infection comparable to that of double dose vaccinated SARS-CoV-2 infection naïve individuals

Background A single dose COVID-19 vaccines, mostly mRNA-based vaccines, are shown to induce robust antibody responses in individuals who were previously infected with SARS-CoV-2, suggesting the sufficiency of a single dose to those individuals. However, these important data are limited to developed nations and lacking in resource-limited countries, like Ethiopia. Methods We compared receptor-binding domain (RBD)-specific IgG antibodies in 40 SARS-CoV-2 naïve participants and 25 participants previously infected with SARS-CoV-2, who received two doses of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine. We measured the antibody response in post-vaccination blood samples from both groups of participants collected at four different post-vaccination time points: 8- and 12-weeks after each dose of the vaccine administration using an in-house developed ELISA. Results We observed a high level of anti-RBD IgG antibodies titers 8-weeks after a single dose administration (16/27; 59.3%) among naïve participants, albeit dropped significantly (p<0.05) two months later, suggesting the protective immunity elicited by the first dose ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine will likely last for a minimum of three months. However, as expected, a significant (p<0.001) increase in the level of anti-RBD IgG antibodies titers was observed after the second dose administration in all naïve participants. By contrast, the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine-induced anti-RBD IgG antibody titers produced by the P.I participants at 8- to 12-weeks post-single dose vaccination were found to be similar to the antibody titers seen after a two-dose vaccination course among infection- naïve participants and showed no significant (p>0.05) increment following the second dose administration. Conclusion Taken together, our findings show that a single ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 dose in previously SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals elicits similar antibody responses to that of double dose vaccinated naïve individuals. Age and sex were not associated with the level of vaccine-elicited immune responses in both individuals with and without prior SARS-CoV-2 infection. Further studies are required to assess the need for a booster dose to extend the duration and amplitude of the specific protective immune response in Ethiopia settings, especially following the Omicron pandemic.

A Systematic Review of the Protective Effect of Prior SARS-CoV-2 Infection on Repeat Infection

We systematically reviewed studies to estimate the risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection among those previously infected with SARS-CoV-2. For this systematic review, we searched scientific publications on PubMed and MedRxiv, a pre-print server, through August 18, 2021. Eligible studies were retrieved on August 18, 2021. The following search term was used on PubMed: ((("Cohort Studies"[Majr]) AND ("COVID-19"[Mesh] OR "SARS-CoV-2"[Mesh])) OR "Reinfection"[Majr]) OR "Reinfection"[Mesh]. The following search term was used on MedRxiv: "Cohort Studies" AND "COVID-19" OR "SARS-CoV-2" AND "Reinfection". The search terms were broad to encompass all applicable studies. There were no restrictions on the date of publication. Studies that did not describe cohorts with estimates of the risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection among those with previous infection were excluded. Studies that included vaccinated participants were either excluded or limited to sub-groups of non-vaccinated individuals. To identify relevant studies with appropriate control groups, we developed the following criteria for studies to be included in the systematic analysis: (1) baseline polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing, (2) a uninfected comparison group, (3) longitudinal follow-up, (4) a cohort of human participants, i.e. not a case report or case series, and (5) outcome determined by PCR. The review was conducted following PRISMA guidelines. We assessed for selection, information, and analysis bias, per PRISMA guidelines. We identified 1,392 reports. Of those, 10 studies were eligible for our systematic review. The weighted average risk reduction against reinfection was 90.4% with a standard deviation of 7.7% (p-value: <0.01). Protection against SARS-CoV-2 reinfection was observed for up to 10 months. Studies had potential information, selection, and analysis biases. The protective effect of prior SARS-CoV-2 infection on re-infection is high and similar to the protective effect of vaccination. More research is needed to characterize the duration of protection and the impact of different SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Impact of Prior Infection on Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Transmission in Syrian Hamsters

Prior infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) provides protective immunity against reinfection. However, whether prior infection blocks SARS-CoV-2 transmission is not yet clear. Here, we evaluated the impact of prior infection on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Syrian hamsters. Our results showed that prior infection significantly reduced SARS-CoV-2 replication in Syrian hamsters, but sterilizing immunity was not achieved. Prior infection blocked the airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from previously infected Syrian hamsters to naïve Syrian hamsters and previously infected Syrian hamsters. Moreover, prior infection substantially reduced the efficiency of direct contact transmission between previously infected Syrian hamsters. However, prior infection had limited impact on SARS-CoV-2 transmission from previously infected Syrian hamsters to naïve Syrian hamsters via direct contact in the early course of infection. Human reinfection and SARS-CoV-2 transmission between a previously infected population and a healthy population would be likely, and a higher vaccination coverage rate was needed to reach herd immunity. Our work will aid the implementation of appropriate public health and social measures to control coronavirus infectious disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.