Cancer mortality in childhood and adolescence: analysis of trends and spatial distribution in the 133 intermediate Brazilian regions grouped by macroregions

OBJECTIVE

To assess the magnitude, trend, and spatial patterns of childhood and adolescent cancer mortality between 1996 and 2017 in 133 Brazilian intermediate regions by using socioeconomic and healthcare services indicators.

METHODS

This is an ecological study for analyzing the trend of mortality from cancer in childhood and adolescence through time series. Data on deaths were extracted from the Brazilian Mortality Information System. Data on population were extracted from the 1991, 2000, and 2010 demographic censuses of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, with interpolation for intercensal years. Time series were delineated for mortality by type of cancer in each intermediate region. Such regions were grouped by macroregions to present the results. The calculation and interpretation of mortality trends use the Prais-Winsten autoregression procedure.

RESULTS

Mortality rates for all neoplasms were higher in the Northern region (7.79 deaths per 100 thousand population), while for leukemias, they were higher in the Southern region (1.61 deaths per 100 thousand population). In both regions, mortality was higher in boys and in the 0-4 age group. The trend was decreasing (annual percent change [APC] - -2.11 [95%CI: -3.14; - 1.30]) for all neoplasms in the Brazilian regions and stationary (APC - -0.43 [95%CI: -1.61; 2.12]) for leukemias in the analyzed period.

CONCLUSION

The mortality rate for all neoplasms showed higher values in regions with smaller numbers of ICU beds in the public healthcare system.

Temporal-spatial analysis of hospitalizations for bronchiolitis in Brazil: prediction of epidemic regions and periods for immunization against the Respiratory Syncytial Virus

OBJECTIVE

Due to the high cost and short term of passive immunization against the respiratory syncytial virus, the main virus causing acute viral bronchiolitis, predicting epidemic regions and epidemic months is extremely important. The objective of this study is to identify both the month when the seasonal peak begins and Brazilian regions and states with the highest incidence of monthly hospitalizations due acute viral bronchiolitis.

METHODS

Based on data obtained from DATASUS, monthly hospitalization rates due acute viral bronchiolitis were calculated for every 10,000 live births to children under 12 months of age in all Brazilian states and the Federal District between 2000 and 2019. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models were estimated to forecast monthly hospitalization rates in 2020.

RESULTS

A higher incidence of hospitalizations was found for male children, especially under six months of age. As for Brazilian regions, between 2000 and 2019, the South region registered the highest incidence of hospitalizations, followed by the Southeast, Midwest, North and Northeast regions, in this order. Considering the seasonal peak, the period between March and July 2020 comprised the highest expected hospitalization rates.

CONCLUSIONS

Palivizumab is suggested to be started between February/March and June/July for most Brazilian states, with the exception of Rio Grande do Sul, which, in addition to presenting the highest rates of hospitalizations for acute viral bronchiolitis per 10,000 live births, has the longest seasonal peak between May and September.