The global and regional air quality impacts of dietary change

Air pollution increases cardiovascular and respiratory-disease risk, and reduces cognitive and physical performance. Food production, especially of animal products, is a major source of methane and ammonia emissions which contribute to air pollution through the formation of particulate matter and ground-level ozone. Here we show that dietary changes towards more plant-based flexitarian, vegetarian, and vegan diets could lead to meaningful reductions in air pollution with health and economic benefits. Using systems models, we estimated reductions in premature mortality of 108,000-236,000 (3-6%) globally, including 20,000-44,000 (9-21%) in Europe, 14,000-21,000 (12-18%) in North America, and 49,000-121,000 (4-10%) in Eastern Asia. We also estimated greater productivity, increasing economic output by USD 0.6-1.3 trillion (0.5-1.1%). Our findings suggest that incentivising dietary changes towards more plant-based diets could be a valuable mitigation strategy for reducing ambient air pollution and the associated health and economic impacts, especially in regions with intensive agriculture and high population density.

Air pollutant emissions from global food systems are responsible for environmental impacts, crop losses and mortality

Food systems are important contributors to global emissions of air pollutants. Here, building on the EDGAR-FOOD database of greenhouse gas emissions, we estimate major air pollutant compounds emitted by different stages of the food system, at country level, during the past 50 years, resulting from food production, processing, packaging, transport, retail, consumption and disposal. Air pollutant estimates from food systems include total nitrogen and its components (N₂O, NH₃ and NO_x), SO₂, CO, non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) and particulate matter (PM₁₀, PM_2.5, black carbon and organic carbon). We show that 10% to 90% of air pollutant emissions come from food systems, resulting from steady increases over the past five decades. In 2018, more than half of total N (and 87% of ammonia) emissions come from food systems and up to 35% of particulate matter. Food system emissions are responsible for about 22.4% of global mortality due to poor air quality and 1.4% of global crop production losses.

Applying the Human Appropriation of Net Primary Production framework to map provisioning ecosystem services and their relation to ecosystem functioning across the European Union

Human intervention on land enhances the supply of provisioning ecosystem services, but also exerts pressures on ecosystem functioning. We utilize the Human Appropriation of Net Primary Production (HANPP) framework to assess these relations in European agriculture, for 220 NUTS2 regions. We put a particular focus on individual land system components, i.e. croplands, grasslands, and livestock husbandry and relate associated biomass flows to the potential net primary productivity NPP. For the reference year 2012, we find that 469 g dm/m2/yr (38% of NPPpot) of used biomass were harvested on total agricultural land, and that one tonne of annually harvested biomass is associated with 1.67 tonnes dry matter (dm) of HANPP, ranging from 0.8 to 8.1 tonnes dry matter (dm) across all regions. EU livestock systems are a large consumer of these provisioning ecosystem services, and invoking higher HANPP flows than current HANPP on cropland and grassland within the EU, even exceeding the potential NPP in one fifth of all NUTS2 regions. NPP remaining in ecosystems after provisioning society with biomass is essential for the functioning of ecosystems and is 563 g dm/m2/yr or 46% of NPPpot on all agricultural land. We conclude from our analysis that the HANPP framework provides useful indicators that should be integrated in future ecosystem service assessments.

How EU policies could reduce nutrient pollution in European inland and coastal waters

Intensive agriculture and densely populated areas represent major sources of nutrient pollution for European inland and coastal waters, altering the aquatic ecosystems and affecting their capacity to provide ecosystem services and support economic activities. Ambitious water policies are in place in the European Union (EU) for protecting and restoring aquatic ecosystems under the Water Framework Directive and the Marine Strategy Framework Directive. This research quantified the current pressures of point and diffuse nitrogen and phosphorus emissions to European fresh and coastal waters (2005-2012), and analysed the effects of three policy scenarios of nutrient reduction: 1) the application of measures currently planned in the Rural Development Programmes and under the Urban Waste Water Treatment Directive (UWWTD); 2) the full implementation of the UWWTD and the absence of derogations in the Nitrates Directive; 3) high reduction of nutrient, using best technologies in wastewaters treatment and optimal fertilisation in agriculture. The results of the study show that for the period 2005-2012, the nitrogen load to European seas was 3.3-4.1 TgN/y and the phosphorus load was 0.26-0.30 TgP/y. Policy measures supporting technological improvements (third scenario) could decrease the nutrient export to the seas up to 14% for nitrogen and 20% for phosphorus, improving the ecological status of rivers and lakes, but widening the nutrient imbalance in coastal ecosystems (i.e. increasing nitrogen availability with respect to phosphorus), affecting eutrophication. Further nutrient reductions could be possible by a combination of measures especially in the agricultural sector. However, without tackling current agricultural production and consumption system, the reduction might not be sufficient for achieving the goals of EU water policy in some regions. The study analysed the expected changes and the source contribution in different European regional seas, and highlights the advantages of addressing the land-sea dynamics, checking the coherence of measures taken under different policies.

A Sustainability Compass for policy navigation to sustainable food systems

Growing acknowledgement that food systems require transformation, demands comprehensive sustainability assessments that can support decision-making and sustainability governance. To do so, assessment frameworks must be able to make trade-offs and synergies visible and allow for inclusive negotiation on food system outcomes relevant to diverse food system actors. This paper reviews literature and frameworks and builds on stakeholder input to present a Sustainability Compass made up of a comprehensive set of metrics for food system assessments. The Compass defines sustainability scores for four societal goals, underpinned by areas of concern. We demonstrate proof of concept of the operationalization of the approach and its metrics. The Sustainability Compass is able to generate comprehensive food system insights that enables reflexive evaluation and multi-actor negotiation for policy making.

Food systems are responsible for a third of global anthropogenic GHG emissions

We have developed a new global food emissions database (EDGAR-FOOD) estimating greenhouse gas (GHG; CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, fluorinated gases) emissions for the years 1990-2015, building on the Emissions Database of Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR), complemented with land use/land-use change emissions from the FAOSTAT emissions database. EDGAR-FOOD provides a complete and consistent database in time and space of GHG emissions from the global food system, from production to consumption, including processing, transport and packaging. It responds to the lack of detailed data for many countries by providing sectoral contributions to food-system emissions that are essential for the design of effective mitigation actions. In 2015, food-system emissions amounted to 18 Gt CO₂ equivalent per year globally, representing 34% of total GHG emissions. The largest contribution came from agriculture and land use/land-use change activities (71%), with the remaining were from supply chain activities: retail, transport, consumption, fuel production, waste management, industrial processes and packaging. Temporal trends and regional contributions of GHG emissions from the food system are also discussed.

The role of nitrogen in achieving sustainable food systems for healthy diets

The 'food system' urgently needs a sustainable transformation. Two major challenges have to be solved: the food system has to provide food security with healthy, accessible, affordable, safe and diverse food for all, and it has to do so within the safe operating space of the planetary boundaries, where the pollution from reactive nitrogen turned out to be the largest bottleneck. Here we argue that thinking strategically about how to balance nitrogen flows throughout the food system will make current food systems more resilient and robust. Looking from a material and a governance perspective on the food system, we highlight major nitrogen losses and policy blind spots originating from a compartmentalization of food system spheres. We conclude that a participatory and integrated approach to manage nitrogen flows throughout the food system is necessary to stay within regional and global nitrogen boundaries, and will additionally provide synergies with a sustainable and healthy diet for all.

Implications of a food system approach for policy agenda-setting design

A call to governments to enact a strategy for a sustainable food system is high on the global agenda. A sustainable food system presupposes a need to go beyond a view of the food system as linear and narrow, to comprehend the food system as dynamic and interlinked, which involves understanding social, economic and ecological outcomes and feedbacks of the system. As such, it should be accompanied by strategic, collaborative, transparent, inclusive, and reflexive agenda-setting process. The concepts of, directionality relating to an agreed vision for a future sustainable food system, and, reflexivity which describes the capacity for critical deliberation and responsiveness, are particularly important. Based on those concepts, this paper proposes an evaluative framework to assess tools and instruments applied during the agenda-setting stage. We apply the evaluative framework to recent food policy processes in Finland and Sweden, revealing that their agenda-setting design cannot be assessed as fully addressing both directionality and reflexivity, thus possibly falling short of the policy design needed for enable more transformative policy approaches.

Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture and food systems: The Eur-Agri-SSPs

Scenarios describe plausible and internally consistent views of the future. They can be used by scientists, policymakers and entrepreneurs to explore the challenges of global environmental change given an appropriate level of spatial and sectoral detail and systematic development. We followed a nine-step protocol to extend and enrich a set of global scenarios - the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) - providing regional and sectoral detail for European agriculture and food systems using a one-to-one nesting participatory approach. The resulting five Eur-Agri-SSPs are titled (1) Agriculture on sustainable paths, (2) Agriculture on established paths, (3) Agriculture on separated paths, (4) Agriculture on unequal paths, and (5) Agriculture on high-tech paths. They describe alternative plausible qualitative evolutions of multiple drivers of particular importance and high uncertainty for European agriculture and food systems. The added value of the protocol-based storyline development process lies in the conceptual and methodological transparency and rigor; the stakeholder driven selection of the storyline elements; and consistency checks within and between the storylines. Compared to the global SSPs, the five Eur-Agri-SSPs provide rich thematic and regional details and are thus a solid basis for integrated assessments of agriculture and food systems and their response to future socio-economic and environmental changes.

Sustainable food system policies need to address environmental pressures and impacts: The example of water use and water stress

Sustainable food systems are high on the political and research agendas. One of the three pillars of sustainability is environmental sustainability. We argue that, when defining related policies, such as policies under the European Green Deal, both environmental pressures and impacts carry important and complementary information and should be used in combination. Although the environmental focus of a sustainable food system is to have a positive or neutral impact on the natural environment, addressing pressures is necessary to achieve this goal. We show this by means of the pressure water use (or water footprint) and its related impact water stress, by means of different arguments: 1) Water use and water stress are only weakly correlated; 2) water use can be evaluated towards a benchmark, addressing resource efficiency; 3) water use is used for resource allocation assessments within or between economic sectors; 4) water amounts are needed to set fair share amounts for citizens, regions, countries or on a global level 5) the pressure water use requires less data, whereas water stress assessments have more uncertainty and 6) both provide strong communication tools to citizens, including for food packaging labelling. As a result, we present a water quantity sustainability scheme, that addresses both water use and water stress, and can be used in support of food system policies, including food package labelling.

Unveiling the potential for an efficient use of nitrogen along the food supply and consumption chain

Ensuring global food security is one of the challenges of our society. Nitrogen availability is key for food production, while contributing to different environmental impacts. This paper aims firstly to assess nitrogen flows and to highlight hotspots of inefficient use of nitrogen along the European food chain, excluding primary production. Secondly, it aims to analyse the potential for reducing the identified inefficiencies and increase nitrogen circularity. A baseline and three scenarios-reflecting waste targets reported in EU legislation and technological improvements- are analysed. Results highlighted a potential to reduce reactive nitrogen emissions up to more than 45%. However, this would imply the conversion of reactive nitrogen in molecular nitrogen, such as urea, before re-entering in the food chain. Techniques to harvest reactive nitrogen directly from urine and wastewater are considered promising to increase nitrogen use efficiency along the food chain.

•

Nitrogen flows from post-farm gate to consumption in food system were investigated.

•

Only 45% of the nitrogen flows in the post-farm gate food system ends up as ingested N.

•

Emissions of reactive nitrogen can be reduced up to 70% in tested scenarios.

•

Tertiary wastewater treatment plants reduce reactive nitrogen emissions but not contribute to N circularity.

•

Nitrogen circularity can be increased with innovative techniques capturing reactive nitrogen.

Integrated management for sustainable cropping systems: Looking beyond the greenhouse balance at the field scale

Cover crops (CC) promote the accumulation of soil organic carbon (SOC), which provides multiple benefits to agro-ecosystems. However, additional nitrogen (N) inputs into the soil could offset the CO2 mitigation potential due to increasing N2 O emissions. Integrated management approaches use organic and synthetic fertilizers to maximize yields while minimizing impacts by crop sequencing adapted to local conditions. The goal of this work was to test whether integrated management, centered on CC adoption, has the potential to maximize SOC stocks without increasing the soil greenhouse gas (GHG) net flux and other agro-environmental impacts such as nitrate leaching. To this purpose, we ran the DayCent bio-geochemistry model on 8,554 soil sampling locations across the European Union. We found that soil N2 O emissions could be limited with simple crop sequencing rules, such as switching from leguminous to grass CC when the GHG flux was positive (source). Additional reductions of synthetic fertilizers applications are possible through better accounting for N available in green manures and from mineralization of soil reservoirs while maintaining cash crop yields. Therefore, our results suggest that a CC integrated management approach can maximize the agro-environmental performance of cropping systems while reducing environmental trade-offs.

Nitrogen futures in the shared socioeconomic pathways 4

Humanity's transformation of the nitrogen cycle has major consequences for ecosystems, climate and human health, making it one of the key environmental issues of our time. Understanding how trends could evolve over the course of the 21st century is crucial for scientists and decision-makers from local to global scales. Scenario analysis is the primary tool for doing so, and has been applied across all major environmental issues, including nitrogen pollution. However, to date most scenario efforts addressing nitrogen flows have either taken a narrow approach, focusing on a singular impact or sector, or have not been integrated within a broader scenario framework - a missed opportunity given the multiple environmental and socio-economic impacts that nitrogen pollution exacerbates. Capitalizing on our expanding knowledge of nitrogen flows, this study introduces a framework for new nitrogen-focused narratives based on the widely used Shared Socioeconomic Pathways that include all the major nitrogen-polluting sectors (agriculture, industry, transport and wastewater). These new narratives are the first to integrate the influence of climate and other environmental pollution control policies, while also incorporating explicit nitrogen-control measures. The next step is for them to be used as model inputs to evaluate the impact of different nitrogen production, consumption and loss trajectories, and thus advance understanding of how to address environmental impacts while simultaneously meeting key development goals. This effort is an important step in assessing how humanity can return to the planetary boundary of this essential element over the coming century.

A protocol to develop Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture

Moving towards a more sustainable future requires concerted actions, particularly in the context of global climate change. Integrated assessments of agricultural systems (IAAS) are considered valuable tools to provide sound information for policy and decision-making. IAAS use storylines to define socio-economic and environmental framework assumptions. While a set of qualitative global storylines, known as the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), is available to inform integrated assessments at large scales, their spatial resolution and scope is insufficient for regional studies in agriculture. We present a protocol to operationalize the development of Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture - Eur-Agri-SSPs - to support IAAS. The proposed design of the storyline development process is based on six quality criteria: plausibility, vertical and horizontal consistency, salience, legitimacy, richness and creativity. Trade-offs between these criteria may occur. The process is science-driven and iterative to enhance plausibility and horizontal consistency. A nested approach is suggested to link storylines across scales while maintaining vertical consistency. Plausibility, legitimacy, salience, richness and creativity shall be stimulated in a participatory and interdisciplinary storyline development process. The quality criteria and process design requirements are combined in the protocol to increase conceptual and methodological transparency. The protocol specifies nine working steps. For each step, suitable methods are proposed and the intended level and format of stakeholder engagement are discussed. A key methodological challenge is to link global SSPs with regional perspectives provided by the stakeholders, while maintaining vertical consistency and stakeholder buy-in. We conclude that the protocol facilitates systematic development and evaluation of storylines, which can be transferred to other regions, sectors and scales and supports inter-comparisons of IAAS.

Environmental footprint family to address local to planetary sustainability and deliver on the SDGs

The number of publications on environmental footprint indicators has been growing rapidly, but with limited efforts to integrate different footprints into a coherent framework. Such integration is important for comprehensive understanding of environmental issues, policy formulation and assessment of trade-offs between different environmental concerns. Here, we systematize published footprint studies and define a family of footprints that can be used for the assessment of environmental sustainability. We identify overlaps between different footprints and analyse how they relate to the nine planetary boundaries and visualize the crucial information they provide for local and planetary sustainability. In addition, we assess how the footprint family delivers on measuring progress towards Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), considering its ability to quantify environmental pressures along the supply chain and relating them to the water-energy-food-ecosystem (WEFE) nexus and ecosystem services. We argue that the footprint family is a flexible framework where particular members can be included or excluded according to the context or area of concern. Our paper is based upon a recent workshop bringing together global leading experts on existing environmental footprint indicators.

The value of manure - Manure as co-product in life cycle assessment

Livestock production is important for food security, nutrition, and landscape maintenance, but it is associated with several environmental impacts. To assess the risk and benefits arising from livestock production, transparent and robust indicators are required, such as those offered by life cycle assessment. A central question in such approaches is how environmental burden is allocated to livestock products and to manure that is re-used for agricultural production. To incentivize sustainable use of manure, it should be considered as a co-product as long as it is not disposed of, or wasted, or applied in excess of crop nutrient needs, in which case it should be treated as a waste. This paper proposes a theoretical approach to define nutrient requirements based on nutrient response curves to economic and physical optima and a pragmatic approach based on crop nutrient yield adjusted for nutrient losses to atmosphere and water. Allocation of environmental burden to manure and other livestock products is then based on the nutrient value from manure for crop production using the price of fertilizer nutrients. We illustrate and discuss the proposed method with two case studies.

Complementing the topsoil information of the Land Use/Land Cover Area Frame Survey (LUCAS) with modelled N2O emissions

Two objectives of the Common Agricultural Policy post-2013 (CAP, 2014-2020) in the European Union (EU) are the sustainable management of natural resources and climate smart agriculture. To understand the CAP impact on these priorities, the Land Use/Cover statistical Area frame Survey (LUCAS) employs direct field observations and soil sub-sampling across the EU. While a huge amount of information can be retrieved from LUCAS points for monitoring the environmental status of agroecosystems and assessing soil carbon sequestration, a fundamental aspect relating to climate change action is missing, namely nitrous oxide (N2O) soil emissions. To fill this gap, we ran the DayCent biogeochemistry model for more than 11'000 LUCAS sampling points under agricultural use, assessing also the model uncertainty. The results showed that current annual N2O emissions followed a skewed distribution with a mean and median values of 2.27 and 1.71 kg N ha-1 yr-1, respectively. Using a Random Forest regression for upscaling the modelled results to the EU level, we estimated direct soil emissions of N2O in the range of 171-195 Tg yr-1 of CO2eq. Moreover, the direct regional upscaling using modelled N2O emissions in LUCAS points was on average 0.95 Mg yr-1 of CO2eq. per hectare, which was within the range of the meta-model upscaling (0.92-1.05 Mg ha-1 yr-1 of CO2eq). We concluded that, if information on management practices would be made available and model bias further reduced by N2O flux measurement at representative LUCAS points, the combination of the land use/soil survey with a well calibrated biogeochemistry model may become a reference tool to support agricultural, environmental and climate policies.

Major challenges of integrating agriculture into climate change mitigation policy frameworks

Taking the European Union (EU) as a case study, we simulate the application of non-uniform national mitigation targets to achieve a sectoral reduction in agricultural non-carbon dioxide (CO₂) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Scenario results show substantial impacts on EU agricultural production, in particular, the livestock sector. Significant increases in imports and decreases in exports result in rather moderate domestic consumption impacts but induce production increases in non-EU countries that are associated with considerable emission leakage effects. The results underline four major challenges for the general integration of agriculture into national and global climate change mitigation policy frameworks and strategies, as they strengthen requests for (1) a targeted but flexible implementation of mitigation obligations at national and global level and (2) the need for a wider consideration of technological mitigation options. The results also indicate that a globally effective reduction in agricultural emissions requires (3) multilateral commitments for agriculture to limit emission leakage and may have to (4) consider options that tackle the reduction in GHG emissions from the consumption side.

Development and testing of a European Union-wide farm-level carbon calculator

Direct greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture accounted for approximately 10% of total European Union (EU) emissions in 2010. To reduce farming-related GHG emissions, appropriate policy measures and supporting tools for promoting low-C farming practices may be efficacious. This article presents the methodology and testing results of a new EU-wide, farm-level C footprint calculator. The Carbon Calculator quantifies GHG emissions based on international standards and technical specifications on Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and C footprinting. The tool delivers its results both at the farm level and as allocated to up to 5 main products of the farm. In addition to the quantification of GHG emissions, the calculator proposes mitigation options and sequestration actions that may be suitable for individual farms. The results obtained during a survey made on 54 farms from 8 EU Member States are presented. These farms were selected in view of representing the diversity of farm types across different environmental zones in the EU. The results of the C footprint of products in the data set show wide range of variation between minimum and maximum values. The results of the mitigation actions showed that the tool can help identify practices that can lead to substantial emission reductions. To avoid burden-shifting from climate change to other environmental issues, the future improvements of the tool should include incorporation of other environmental impact categories in place of solely focusing on GHG emissions.

Modeled Changes in Potential Grassland Productivity and in Grass-Fed Ruminant Livestock Density in Europe over 1961-2010

About 25% of European livestock intake is based on permanent and sown grasslands. To fulfill rising demand for animal products, an intensification of livestock production may lead to an increased consumption of crop and compound feeds. In order to preserve an economically and environmentally sustainable agriculture, a more forage based livestock alimentation may be an advantage. However, besides management, grassland productivity is highly vulnerable to climate (i.e., temperature, precipitation, CO2 concentration), and spatial information about European grassland productivity in response to climate change is scarce. The process-based vegetation model ORCHIDEE-GM, containing an explicit representation of grassland management (i.e., herbage mowing and grazing), is used here to estimate changes in potential productivity and potential grass-fed ruminant livestock density across European grasslands over the period 1961-2010. Here "potential grass-fed ruminant livestock density" denotes the maximum density of livestock that can be supported by grassland productivity in each 25 km × 25 km grid cell. In reality, livestock density could be higher than potential (e.g., if additional feed is supplied to animals) or lower (e.g., in response to economic factors, pedo-climatic and biotic conditions ignored by the model, or policy decisions that can for instance reduce livestock numbers). When compared to agricultural statistics (Eurostat and FAOstat), ORCHIDEE-GM gave a good reproduction of the regional gradients of annual grassland productivity and ruminant livestock density. The model however tends to systematically overestimate the absolute values of productivity in most regions, suggesting that most grid cells remain below their potential grassland productivity due to possible nutrient and biotic limitations on plant growth. When ORCHIDEE-GM was run for the period 1961-2010 with variable climate and rising CO2, an increase of potential annual production (over 3%) per decade was found: 97% of this increase was attributed to the rise in CO2, -3% to climate trends and 15% to trends in nitrogen fertilization and deposition. When compared with statistical data, ORCHIDEE-GM captures well the observed phase of climate-driven interannual variability in grassland production well, whereas the magnitude of the interannual variability in modeled productivity is larger than the statistical data. Regional grass-fed livestock numbers can be reproduced by ORCHIDEE-GM based on its simple assumptions and parameterization about productivity being the only limiting factor to define the sustainable number of animals per unit area. Causes for regional model-data misfits are discussed, including uncertainties in farming practices (e.g., nitrogen fertilizer application, and mowing and grazing intensity) and in ruminant diet composition, as well as uncertainties in the statistical data and in model parameter values.

Livestock greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation potential in Europe

The livestock sector contributes considerably to global greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). Here, for the year 2007 we examined GHG emissions in the EU27 livestock sector and estimated GHG emissions from production and consumption of livestock products; including imports, exports and wastage. We also reviewed available mitigation options and estimated their potential. The focus of this review is on the beef and dairy sector since these contribute 60% of all livestock production emissions. Particular attention is paid to the role of land use and land use change (LULUC) and carbon sequestration in grasslands. GHG emissions of all livestock products amount to between 630 and 863 Mt CO2 e, or 12-17% of total EU27 GHG emissions in 2007. The highest emissions aside from production, originate from LULUC, followed by emissions from wasted food. The total GHG mitigation potential from the livestock sector in Europe is between 101 and 377 Mt CO2 e equivalent to between 12 and 61% of total EU27 livestock sector emissions in 2007. A reduction in food waste and consumption of livestock products linked with reduced production, are the most effective mitigation options, and if encouraged, would also deliver environmental and human health benefits. Production of beef and dairy on grassland, as opposed to intensive grain fed production, can be associated with a reduction in GHG emissions depending on actual LULUC emissions. This could be promoted on rough grazing land where appropriate.

Comparison of land nitrogen budgets for European agriculture by various modeling approaches

A comparison of nitrogen (N) budgets for the year 2000 of agro-ecosystems is made for the EU 27 countries by four models with different complexity and data requirements, i.e. INTEGRATOR, IDEAg, MITERRA and IMAGE. The models estimate a comparable total N input in European agriculture, i.e. 23.3-25.7 Mton N yr(-1), but N uptake varies more, i.e. from 11.3 to 15.4 Mton N yr(-1) leading to total N surpluses varying from 10.4 to 13.2 Mton N yr(-1). The estimated overall variation at EU 27 is small for the emissions of ammonia (2.8-3.1 Mton N yr(-1)) and nitrous oxide (0.33-0.43 Mton N yr(-1)), but large for the sum of N leaching and runoff (2.7-6.3 Mton N yr(-1)). Unlike the overall EU estimates, the difference in N output fluxes between models is large at regional scale. This is mainly determined by N inputs, differences being highest in areas with high livestock density.

Developing spatially stratified N(2)O emission factors for Europe

We investigate the possibility to replace the - so-called - Tier 1 IPCC approach to estimate soil N(2)O emissions with stratified emissions factors that take into account both N-input and the spatial variability of the environmental conditions within the countries of the European Union, using the DNDC-Europe model. Spatial variability in model simulations is high and corresponds to the variability reported in literature for field data. Our results indicate that (a) much of the observed variability in N(2)O fluxes reflects the response of soils to external conditions, (b) it is likely that national inventories tend to overestimate the uncertainties in their estimated direct N(2)O emissions from arable soils; (c) on average over Europe, the fertilizer-induced emissions (FIE) coincide with the IPCC factors, but they display large spatial variations. Therefore, at scales of individual countries or smaller, a stratified approach considering fertilizer type, soil characteristics and climatic parameters is preferable.

Assessing the impact of Cross Compliance measures on nitrogen fluxes from European farmlands with DNDC-EUROPE

We investigated the effects of the agricultural Cross Compliance measures for European cultivated lands, focusing on nitrogen (N) fluxes from corn fields. Four scenarios have been designed according to some conservation farming practices, namely no-till, max manure, catch crop and N splitting. Results indicated that (1) in the no-till scenario the N(2)O fluxes are decreased during the first simulated years, with a return to default fluxes in following years; no-till particularly decreased N(2)O emission in the dryer and colder simulation spatial units (HSMUs); (2) the no-till and the N splitting scenarios slightly increased the N surplus because of a decrease in plant uptake; (3) introducing a rotation with alfalfa decreased the N leaching in the corn crops following the catch crops; and (4) the application of fertilizer and manure during the cold and wet seasons led to an increase of N leaching.

Farm, land, and soil nitrogen budgets for agriculture in Europe calculated with CAPRI

We calculated farm, land, and soil N-budgets for countries in Europe and the EU27 as a whole using the agro-economic model CAPRI. For EU27, N-surplus is 55 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) in a soil budget and 65 kg N(2)O-N ha(-1) yr(-1) and 67 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) in land and farm budgets, respectively. NUE is 31% for the farm budget, 60% for the land budget and 63% for the soil budget. NS values are mainly related to the excretion (farm budget) and application (soil and land budget) of manure per hectare of total agricultural land. On the other hand, NUE is best explained by the specialization of the agricultural system toward animal production (farm NUE) or the share of imported feedstuff (soil NUE). Total N input, intensive farming, and the specialization to animal production are found to be the main drivers for a high NS and low NUE.

Multicompartmental fate of persistent substances. Comparison of predictions from multi-media box models and a multicompartment chemistry-atmospheric transport model

BACKGROUND, AIM AND SCOPE

Modelling of the fate of environmental chemicals can be done by relatively simple multi-media box models or using complex atmospheric transport models. It was the aim of this work to compare the results obtained for both types of models using a small set of non-ionic and non-polar or moderately polar organic chemicals, known to be distributed over long distances.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Predictions of multimedia exposure models of different types, namely three multimedia mass-balance box models (MBMs), two in the steady state and one in the non-steady state mode, and one non-steady state multicompartment chemistry-atmospheric transport model (MCTM), are compared for the first time. The models used are SimpleBox, Chemrange, the MPI-MBM and the MPI-MCTM. The target parameters addressed are compartmental distributions (i.e. mass fractions in the compartments), overall environmental residence time (i.e. overall persistence and eventually including other final sinks, such as loss to the deep sea) and a measure for the long-range transport potential. These are derived for atrazine, benz-[a]-pyrene, DDT, alpha and gamma-hexachlorocyclohexane, methyl parathion and various modes of substance entry into the model world.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Compartmental distributions in steady state were compared. Steady state needed 2-10 years to be established in the MCTM. The highest fraction of the substances in air is predicted by the MCTM. Accordingly, the other models predict longer substance persistence in most cases. The results suggest that temperature affects the compartmental distribution more in the box models, while it is only one among many climate factors acting in the transport model. The representation of final sinks in the models, e.g. burial in the sediment, is key for model-based compartmental distribution and persistence predictions. There is a tendency of MBMs to overestimate substance sinks in air and to underestimate atmospheric transport velocity as a consequence of the neglection of the temporal and spatial variabilities of these parameters. Therefore, the long-range transport potential in air derived from MCTM simulations exceeds the one from Chemrange in most cases and least for substances which undergo slow degradation in air.

CONCLUSIONS AND PERSPECTIVES

MBMs should be improved such as to ascertain that the significance of the atmosphere for the multicompartmental cycling is not systematically underestimated. Both types of models should be improved such as to cover degradation in air in the particle-bound state and transport via ocean currents. A detailed understanding of the deviations observed in this work and elsewhere should be gained and multimedia fate box models could then be 'tuned in' to match better the results of comprehensive multicompartmental transport models.

Formation of nitrate and sulfate in the plume of Berlin

BACKGROUND, AIMS AND SCOPE

Secondary inorganic aerosol (SIA), i.e. particulate sulphate (S(VI)), ammonium and nitrate (N(V)), is formed from gaseous precursors, i.e. sulfur dioxide (S(IV)), ammonia and nitrogen oxides, in polluted air on the time-scale of hours to days. Besides particulate ammonium and nitrate, the respective gaseous species ammonia and nitric acid can be formed as well. SIA contributes significantly to elevated levels of respirable particulate matter in urban areas and in strongly anthropogenically influenced air in general.

METHODS

The near-ground aerosol chemical composition was studied at two stationary sites in the vicinity of Berlin during a field campaign in the summer of 1998. By means of analysis of the wind field, two episodes were identified which allow one to study changes within individual air masses during transport, i.e. a Lagrangian type of experiment, with one station being upwind and the other downwind of the city. By reference to a passive tracer (Na+) and estimates on dry depositional losses, the influences of dispersion and mixing on concentration changes can be eliminated from the data analysis.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Chemical changes were observed in N(-III), N(V) and S(VI) species. SIA, i.e. N(V) and S(VI), was formed from emissions in the city within a few hours. Furthermore, the significance of emissions in the city was confirmed by the lacking SIA formation in the case of transport around the city. For the two episodes, SIA formation rates could be derived, albeit not more precisely than by an order of magnitude. N(V) formation rates were between 1.4 and 20 and between 1.9 and 59% h(-1) on the two days, respectively, and S(VI) formation rates were >17 and >10% h(-1). The area south of the city was identified as a source of ammonia.

CONCLUSION

The probability of occurrence of situations during which the downwind site (50 km downwind of Berlin) would be hit by an urban plume is > 7.4%. Furthermore, for the general case of rural areas in Germany, it is estimated that there is a significant probability to be hit by an urban plume (>8%, corresponding to >1 month per year) for more than half of these. The S(VI) formation rates are higher than explainable by homogeneous, gas-phase chemistry and suggest the involvement of heterogeneous reactions of aerosol particles.

RECOMMENDATION AND OUTLOOK

The possible contribution of heterogeneous processes to S(VI) formation should be addressed in laboratory studies. Measurements at more than two sites could improve the potential of Lagrangian field experiments for the quantification of atmospheric chemical transformations, if a second downwind site is chosen in such a way that, at least under particularly stable conditions, measurements there are representative for the source area.

Indicators for persistence and long-range transport potential as derived from multicompartment chemistry-transport modelling

Total environmental and compartmental residence times as a measure for persistence as well as indicators for long-range transport potential (LRTP) have been derived from global geo-referenced modelling and LRTP is characterized in two geographic directions for the first time. A dynamic multicompartment chemistry-transport model (MCTM) was used to study the fate of the insecticides DDT and alpha-hexachlorocyclohexane (alpha-HCH) during the first 2 years upon entry. The indicators for LRTP were defined such as to address the tendencies of substance distributions to migrate ('plume displacement', PD) and to spread into remote areas ('spatial spreading', SS). The indicators deliver values as function of time upon entry. With the aim to address the effect of location of entry on environmental fate, scenarios of emission from the territories of seven countries were studied. It was found that the effect of location of entry on the spatial scale of countries (400-4000 km) is significant for the compartmental distribution and the inter-compartmental mass exchange fluxes (e.g., number of atmospheric cycles, 'hops'). Location of entry introduces uncertainties in the order of a factor of 5 for the total environmental residence time, tau(overall), and a factor of 5-20 for PD and SS. For the 2nd year upon entry into the environment, tau(overall)=317-1527 days are predicted for DDT and 101-463 days for alpha-HCH. The influence of location of entry does affect the substance ranking, i.e. we cannot simply state that DDT is more persistent than alpha-HCH, but for one scenario studied, application in China, the opposite is predicted. Precipitation patterns proved to be significant, besides other climate parameters, for atmospheric residence time. Integration of the location of entry in chemicals risk assessments is therefore recommended. In general, persistence and some indicators for LRTP, pertinent to their definition, refer to the fate of a large fraction, e.g., 63% (=1-1/e) or 90%, but not the total substance burden. The choice of this fraction may have the consequence of a normative step which defines the spatial and temporal extensions of a related chemicals risk assessment and may affect substance ranking.