Patients' experience on pain outcomes after hip arthroplasty: insights from an information tool based on registry data

BACKGROUND

Arthroplasty registries are rarely used to inform encounters between clinician and patient. This study is part of a larger one which aimed to develop an information tool allowing both to benefit from previous patients' experience after total hip arthroplasty (THA). This study focuses on generating the information tool specifically for pain outcomes.

METHODS

Data from the Geneva Arthroplasty Registry (GAR) about patients receiving a primary elective THA between 1996 and 2019 was used. Selected outcomes were identified from patient and surgeon surveys: pain walking, climbing stairs, night pain, pain interference, and pain medication. Clusters of patients with homogeneous outcomes at 1, 5, and 10 years postoperatively were generated based on selected predictors evaluated preoperatively using conditional inference trees (CITs).

RESULTS

Data from 6,836 THAs were analysed and 14 CITs generated with 17 predictors found significant (p < 0.05). Baseline WOMAC pain score, SF-12 self-rated health (SRH), number of comorbidities, SF-12 mental component score, and body mass index (BMI) were the most common predictors. Outcome levels varied markedly by clusters whilst predictors changed at different time points for the same outcome. For example, 79% of patients with good to excellent SRH and less than moderate preoperative night pain reported absence of night pain at 1 year after THA; in contrast, for those with fair/poor SHR this figure was 50%. Also, clusters of patients with homogeneous levels of night pain at 1 year were generated based on SRH, Charnley, WOMAC night and pain scores, whilst those at 10 years were based on BMI alone.

CONCLUSIONS

The information tool generated under this study can provide prospective patients and clinicians with valuable and understandable information about the experiences of "patients like them" regarding their pain outcomes.

Findings from a pilot randomized trial of spinal decompression alone or spinal decompression plus instrumented fusion

Aims

Symptomatic spinal stenosis is a very common problem, and decompression surgery has been shown to be superior to nonoperative treatment in selected patient groups. However, performing an instrumented fusion in addition to decompression may avoid revision and improve outcomes. The aim of the SpInOuT feasibility study was to establish whether a definitive randomized controlled trial (RCT) that accounted for the spectrum of pathology contributing to spinal stenosis, including pelvic incidence-lumbar lordosis (PI-LL) mismatch and mobile spondylolisthesis, could be conducted.

Methods

As part of the SpInOuT-F study, a pilot randomized trial was carried out across five NHS hospitals. Patients were randomized to either spinal decompression alone or spinal decompression plus instrumented fusion. Patient-reported outcome measures were collected at baseline and three months. The intended sample size was 60 patients.

Results

Of the 90 patients screened, 77 passed the initial screening criteria. A total of 27 patients had a PI-LL mismatch and 23 had a dynamic spondylolisthesis. Following secondary inclusion and exclusion criteria, 31 patients were eligible for the study. Six patients were randomized and one underwent surgery during the study period. Given the low number of patients recruited and randomized, it was not possible to assess completion rates, quality of life, imaging, or health economic outcomes as intended.

Conclusion

This study provides a unique insight into the prevalence of dynamic spondylolisthesis and PI-LL mismatch in patients with symptomatic spinal stenosis, and demonstrates that there is a need for a definitive RCT which stratifies for these groups in order to inform surgical decision-making. Nonetheless a definitive study would need further refinement in design and implementation in order to be feasible.

Multimorbidity research in Sub-Saharan Africa: Proceedings of an interdisciplinary workshop

As life expectancies rise globally, the number of people living with multiple chronic health conditions – commonly referred to as ‘multimorbidity’ – is rising. Multimorbidity has been recognised as especially challenging to respond to in countries whose health systems are under-funded, fragmented, and designed primarily for acute care, including in sub-Saharan Africa. A growing body of research in sub-Saharan Africa has sought to better understand the particular challenges multimorbidity poses in the region and to develop context-sensitive responses. However, with multimorbidity still crystallising as a subject of enquiry, there remains considerable heterogeneity in conceptualising multimorbidity across disciplines and fields, hindering coordinated action. In June 2022, 60 researchers, practitioners, and stakeholders with regional expertise from nine sub-Saharan African countries gathered in Blantyre, Malawi to discuss ongoing multimorbidity research across the region. Drawing on insights from disciplines including epidemiology, public health, clinical medicine, anthropology, history, and sociology, participants critically considered the meaning, singular potential, and limitations of the concept of multimorbidity in sub-Saharan Africa. The workshop emphasised  the need to move beyond a disease-centred concept of multimorbidity to one foregrounding patients’ values, needs, and social context; the importance of foregrounding structures and systems rather than behaviour and lifestyles; the value of a flexible (rather than standard) definition of multimorbidity; and the need to leverage local knowledge, expertise, resources, and infrastructure. The workshop further served as a platform for exploring opportunities for training, writing, and ongoing collaboration.

Are Janus kinase inhibitors safe and effective in treating the key clinical domains of psoriatic arthritis? A systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

Psoriatic arthritis (PsA), is a complex inflammatory arthropathy with a heterogenous spectrum of disease presentation. Despite the vast therapeutic armamentarium, disease control in a considerable proportion of patients is suboptimal. The aim of this study was to assess the safety and efficacy of Janus kinase inhibitors (JAKi), in the management of key clinical domains of PsA including peripheral arthritis, psoriasis, enthesitis and dactylitis.

METHOD

Randomized placebo-controlled trials (RCTs) of JAKi in PsA were identified by a systematic literature search using EMBASE, PubMed and CENTRAL. All included studies underwent meta-analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 5 RCTs were included. Patients were randomized to tofacitinib (n = 474), filgotinib (n = 65), upadacitinib (n = 1281) or placebo (n = 937). JAKi treatment was associated with superior efficacy across all primary outcome measures vs placebo: American College of Rheumatology (ACR) 20 (risk ratio [RR] 2.10, [95% CI 1.86-2.37], P < .00001, I2 = 19%); ACR 50 (RR 3.43, [95% CI 2.37-4.96], P < .00001, I2 = 66%); ACR 70 (RR 4.57, [95% CI 1.83-11.44], P = .001, I2 = 82%); Psoriasis Area and Severity Index 75 (RR 2.96, [95% CI 2.44-3.58], P < .00001, I2 = 0%); enthesitis resolution (RR 1.82, [95% CI 1.56-2.12], P < .00001, I2 = 0%); and dactylitis resolution (RR 1.85, [95% CI 1.57-2.16], P < .00001, I2 = 0%). JAKi were associated with an overall increased risk of adverse events (RR 1.14, [95% CI 1.07-1.21], P = .0001, I2 = 0%) with increased risk of infection (RR1.23, [95% CI 1.08-1.39], P = .001, I2 = 0%) vs placebo.

CONCLUSION

This pooled analysis demonstrates the efficacy of JAKi in treating key clinical domains of PsA. However, they are associated with an increased risk of adverse events, including infection. Further studies are required to corroborate these findings and further elucidate the safety profile.

Survival of primary ankle replacements: data from global joint registries

BACKGROUND

Ankle arthroplasty, commonly known as ankle replacement, is a surgical procedure for treating end-stage ankle osteoarthritis. Whilst evidence shows good clinical results after surgery, little is known of the long-term survival of ankle replacements and the need for ankle revision. Using more recent implant data and long-term data, there is now opportunity to examine at a population-level the survival rate for ankle implants, to examine between-country differences in ankle revision surgery, and to compare temporal trends in revision rates between countries.

METHODS

Four national joint registries from Australia, New Zealand, Norway and Sweden provided the necessary data on revision outcome following primary ankle replacement, for various periods of observation - the earliest starting in 1993 up to the end of 2019. Data were either acquired from published, online annual reports or were provided from direct contact with the joint registries. The key information extracted were Kaplan-Meier estimates to plot survival probability curves following primary ankle replacement.

RESULTS

The survival rates varied between countries. At 2 years, across all registries, survival rates all exceeded 0.9 (range 0.91 to 0.97). The variation widened at 5 years (range 0.80 to 0.91), at 10 years (range 0.66 to 0.84) and further at 15-years follow-up (0.56 to 0.78). At each time point, implant survival was greater in Australia and New Zealand with lower rates in Sweden and Norway.

CONCLUSIONS

We observed variation in primary ankle replacement survival rates across these national registries, although even after 5 years, these population derived data show an 80% revision free survival. These data raise a number of hypotheses concerning the reasons for between-country differences in revision-free survival which will require access to primary data for analysis.

Erectile dysfunction predicts mortality in middle-aged and older men independent of their sex steroid status

BACKGROUND

erectile dysfunction is associated with mortality, whereas the association between low testosterone (T) and higher mortality remains controversial. Sexual dysfunction and low T often coexist, but the relative importance of sexual symptoms versus low T in predicting mortality is not known. We studied the interrelationships between sex steroids and sexual symptoms with all-cause mortality in a large prospective cohort of European men.

DESIGN

survival status was assessed in 1,788 community-dwelling men, aged 40-79, who participated in the European Male Ageing Study (EMAS). Sexual symptoms were evaluated via a validated questionnaire (EMAS-SFQ). Sex steroids were measured by mass spectrometry. Cox proportional hazard models were used to study the association between hormones, sexual symptoms and mortality.

RESULTS

about 420 (25.3%) men died during a mean follow-up of 12.6 ± 3.1 years. Total T levels were similar in both groups, but free T was lower in those who died. Men with three sexual symptoms (erectile dysfunction, reduced morning erections and lower libido) had a higher mortality risk compared with men with none of these symptoms (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence intervals: 1.75 (1.28-2.40, P = 0.001)). Particularly, erectile dysfunction and poor morning erections, but not lower libido, were associated with increased mortality (HR 1.40 (1.13-1.74, P = 0.002), 1.28 (1.04-1.59, P = 0.023) and 1.12 (0.90-1.39, P = 0.312), respectively). Further adjusting for total T, free T or oestradiol did not influence the observed risk.

CONCLUSIONS

sexual symptoms, in particular erectile dysfunction, predict all-cause mortality independently of sex steroids and can be an early warning sign of a poor health status.

Unicompartmental compared with total knee replacement for patients with multimorbidities: a cohort study using propensity score stratification and inverse probability weighting

BACKGROUND

Although routine NHS data potentially include all patients, confounding limits their use for causal inference. Methods to minimise confounding in observational studies of implantable devices are required to enable the evaluation of patients with severe systemic morbidity who are excluded from many randomised controlled trials.

OBJECTIVES

Stage 1 - replicate the Total or Partial Knee Arthroplasty Trial (TOPKAT), a surgical randomised controlled trial comparing unicompartmental knee replacement with total knee replacement using propensity score and instrumental variable methods. Stage 2 - compare the risk benefits and cost-effectiveness of unicompartmental knee replacement with total knee replacement surgery in patients with severe systemic morbidity who would have been ineligible for TOPKAT using the validated methods from stage 1.

DESIGN

This was a cohort study.

SETTING

Data were obtained from the National Joint Registry database and linked to hospital inpatient (Hospital Episode Statistics) and patient-reported outcome data.

PARTICIPANTS

Stage 1 - people undergoing unicompartmental knee replacement surgery or total knee replacement surgery who met the TOPKAT eligibility criteria. Stage 2 - participants with an American Society of Anesthesiologists grade of ≥ 3.

INTERVENTION

The patients were exposed to either unicompartmental knee replacement surgery or total knee replacement surgery.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome measure was the postoperative Oxford Knee Score. The secondary outcome measures were 90-day postoperative complications (venous thromboembolism, myocardial infarction and prosthetic joint infection) and 5-year revision risk and mortality. The main outcome measures for the health economic analysis were health-related quality of life (EuroQol-5 Dimensions) and NHS hospital costs.

RESULTS

In stage 1, propensity score stratification and inverse probability weighting replicated the results of TOPKAT. Propensity score adjustment, propensity score matching and instrumental variables did not. Stage 2 included 2256 unicompartmental knee replacement patients and 57,682 total knee replacement patients who had severe comorbidities, of whom 145 and 23,344 had linked Oxford Knee Scores, respectively. A statistically significant but clinically irrelevant difference favouring unicompartmental knee replacement was observed, with a mean postoperative Oxford Knee Score difference of < 2 points using propensity score stratification; no significant difference was observed using inverse probability weighting. Unicompartmental knee replacement more than halved the risk of venous thromboembolism [relative risk 0.33 (95% confidence interval 0.15 to 0.74) using propensity score stratification; relative risk 0.39 (95% confidence interval 0.16 to 0.96) using inverse probability weighting]. Unicompartmental knee replacement was not associated with myocardial infarction or prosthetic joint infection using either method. In the long term, unicompartmental knee replacement had double the revision risk of total knee replacement [hazard ratio 2.70 (95% confidence interval 2.15 to 3.38) using propensity score stratification; hazard ratio 2.60 (95% confidence interval 1.94 to 3.47) using inverse probability weighting], but half of the mortality [hazard ratio 0.52 (95% confidence interval 0.36 to 0.74) using propensity score stratification; insignificant effect using inverse probability weighting]. Unicompartmental knee replacement had lower costs and higher quality-adjusted life-year gains than total knee replacement for stage 2 participants.

LIMITATIONS

Although some propensity score methods successfully replicated TOPKAT, unresolved confounding may have affected stage 2. Missing Oxford Knee Scores may have led to information bias.

CONCLUSIONS

Propensity score stratification and inverse probability weighting successfully replicated TOPKAT, implying that some (but not all) propensity score methods can be used to evaluate surgical innovations and implantable medical devices using routine NHS data. Unicompartmental knee replacement was safer and more cost-effective than total knee replacement for patients with severe comorbidity and should be considered the first option for suitable patients.

FUTURE WORK

Further research is required to understand the performance of propensity score methods for evaluating surgical innovations and implantable devices.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

This trial is registered as EUPAS17435.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 66. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

1263 Does Multimorbidity Influence the Likelihood of Receiving A Total Hip Replacement for Osteoarthritis?

Introduction

Limited data are available on the influence of multimorbidity on the outcomes of total hip replacement for patients with hip osteoarthritis. Thus, patients with multimorbidity and their clinicians across the UK are making decisions on whether or not to proceed with total hip replacement without clear information available on the potential risks and benefits. It is not known how such patients are currently managed. The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of multimorbidity on the likelihood of receiving total hip replacement in patients with hip osteoarthritis in the UK.

Method

A cohort study was performed, with cohort comprised of all patients over 65 years with a diagnosis of hip osteoarthritis recorded in Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Severity of multimorbidity burden was measured using four different scores (Charlson Comorbidity Index, Electronic Frailty Index, count of drugs prescribed, count of primary care interactions). The outcome was total hip replacement, evaluated using Kaplan-Meier survival and competing-risk analyses.

Results

28,025 patients were included. 10,948 patients underwent total hip replacement. Increased multimorbidity burden was associated with decreased likelihood of undergoing surgery, irrespective of the method of scoring multimorbidity. Electronic Frailty Index had the largest difference between categories. Adjusted hazard ratio (‘severe multimorbidity versus ‘fit’) was 0.34 (95% CI 0.22, 0.51).

Conclusions

Patients with hip osteoarthritis and concurrent multimorbidity were up to two thirds less likely to undergo total hip replacement. Whether this difference in healthcare management is appropriate depends on to what extent multimorbidity influences the outcomes of total hip replacement.

1279 Does Multimorbidity Influence the Outcomes of Total Hip Replacement for Osteoarthritis?

Introduction

Limited data are available on the influence of multimorbidity on the outcomes of total hip replacement for patients with hip osteoarthritis, including the rate of complications and degree of functional benefit. The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of multimorbidity on the outcomes of total hip replacement in the UK.

Method

A cohort study was performed, with cohort comprised of all patients over 65 years with a diagnosis of hip osteoarthritis recorded in Clinical Practice Research Datalink and receipt of primary total hip replacement recorded in Hospital Episode Statistics Admitted Patient Care. Severity of multimorbidity burden was measured using four different scores (Charlson Comorbidity Index, Electronic Frailty Index, count of drugs prescribed, count of primary care interactions). The outcomes were (i) the risks of total hip replacement, assessed by serious post-operative complications within 90 days (analysed with logistic regression), and (ii) the benefits of surgery, assessed by post-operative Oxford Hip Score (OHS) and EQ-5D quality of life score (analysed with linear regression).

Results

6,682 patients were included. The rate of complications was 3.2%. Patients with severe multimorbidity burden were at 1.5 to 2.5 times increased risk of complications than patients without multimorbidity. There was no clinically meaningful difference in the benefits of surgery between patients with and without multimorbidity, irrespective of the method of scoring multimorbidity.

Conclusions

Even for patients with severe multimorbidity burden, the potential benefits of total hip replacement for osteoarthritis remain substantial, while the increase in risk is relatively small.

Estimating the population health burden of musculoskeletal conditions using primary care electronic health records

OBJECTIVES

Better indicators from affordable, sustainable data sources are needed to monitor population burden of musculoskeletal conditions. We propose five indicators of musculoskeletal health and assessed if routinely available primary care electronic health records (EHR) can estimate population levels in musculoskeletal consulters.

METHODS

We collected validated patient-reported measures of pain experience, function and health status through a local survey of adults (≥35 years) presenting to English general practices over 12 months for low back pain, shoulder pain, osteoarthritis and other regional musculoskeletal disorders. Using EHR data we derived and validated models for estimating population levels of five self-reported indicators: prevalence of high impact chronic pain, overall musculoskeletal health (based on Musculoskeletal Health Questionnaire), quality of life (based on EuroQoL health utility measure), and prevalence of moderate-to-severe low back pain and moderate-to-severe shoulder pain. We applied models to a national EHR database (Clinical Practice Research Datalink) to obtain national estimates of each indicator for three successive years.

RESULTS

The optimal models included recorded demographics, deprivation, consultation frequency, analgesic and antidepressant prescriptions, and multimorbidity. Applying models to national EHR, we estimated that 31.9% of adults (≥35 years) presenting with non-inflammatory musculoskeletal disorders in England in 2016/17 experienced high impact chronic pain. Estimated population health levels were worse in women, older aged and those in the most deprived neighbourhoods, and changed little over 3 years.

CONCLUSION

National and subnational estimates for a range of subjective indicators of non-inflammatory musculoskeletal health conditions can be obtained using information from routine electronic health records.

Trends in the Utilization of Ankle Replacements: Data From Worldwide National Joint Registries

BACKGROUND

Over the past decade, there has been a growth in the use of ankle replacements. Data from national joint registries have shown between-country differences in the utilization of ankle replacement. The reasons for these differences are, however, not well understood. Our aims were to describe and compare the annual incidence of primary ankle replacement between countries and, to examine potential reasons for variation over time.

METHODS

We used aggregate data and summary statistics on ankle replacements for the period 1993 to 2019 from national joint replacement registries in Australia, Finland, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden and the United Kingdom. From the annual recorded counts of procedures, demographic data were extracted on age, sex distribution, and indication(s) for primary ankle replacement. Registry-level summary results were also obtained on data completeness, counts of hospitals/units, and health care providers performing ankle replacements annually and data collection processes (mandatory vs voluntary). Annual ankle replacement incidence for all diagnoses and, by indication categories (osteoarthritis [OA] and rheumatoid arthritis [RA]), were calculated per 100 000 residential population aged ≥18 years.

RESULTS

For the period with data from all 6 countries (2010-2015), New Zealand had the largest annual incidence (mean ± SD) of 3.3 ± 0.2 ankle replacement procedures per 100 000 population whereas Finland had the lowest incidence (0.92 replacements). There were no common temporal trends in the utilization of ankle replacements. Over the years studied, OA was the predominant diagnosis in the United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand, whereas RA was the most common indication in Scandinavia.

CONCLUSION

In these 6 countries, we found marked differences in the utilization of ankle replacements. Registry-related factors including data completeness and the number of hospitals/surgeons performing ankle replacements are likely to contribute to the observed between-country differences and need to be carefully considered when interpreting comparisons for this less common site for joint replacement surgery.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Level III, retrospective study.

'All disease begins in the gut'-the role of the intestinal microbiome in ankylosing spondylitis

Ankylosing spondylitis is a chronic, debilitating arthritis with a predilection for the axial skeleton. It has a strong genetic predisposition, but the precise pathogenetic mechanisms involved in its development have not yet been fully elucidated. This has implications both for early diagnosis and for effective management. Recently, alterations in the intestinal microbiome have been implicated in disease pathogenesis. In this review, we summarize studies assessing the intestinal microbiome in AS pathogenesis, in addition to synthesizing the literature exploring the postulated mechanisms by which it exerts it pathogenic potential. Finally, we review studies analysing manipulation of the microbiome as a potential therapeutic avenue in AS management.

Does pre-existing morbidity influences risks and benefits of total hip replacement for osteoarthritis: a prospective study of 6682 patients from linked national datasets in England

Total hip arthroplasty (THA) surgery for elderly people with multimorbidity increases the risk of serious health hazards including mortality. Whether such background morbidity reduces the clinical benefit is less clear.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate how pre-existing health status, using multiple approaches, influences risks of, and quality of life benefits from, THA.

SETTING

Longitudinal record linkage study of a UK sample linking their primary care to their secondary care records.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 6682 patients were included, based on the recording of the diagnosis of hip osteoarthritis in a national primary care register and the recording of the receipt of THA in a national secondary care register.Data were extracted from the primary care register on background health and morbidity status using five different constructs: Charlson Comorbidity Index, Electronic Frailty Index (eFI) and counts of comorbidity disorders (from list of 17), prescribed medications and number of primary care visits prior to recording of THA.

OUTCOME MEASURES

(1) Postoperative complications and mortality; (2) postoperative hip pain and function using the Oxford Hip Score (OHS) and health-related quality of life using the EuroQoL (EQ)-5D score.

RESULTS

Perioperative complication rate was 3.2% and mortality was 0.9%, both increased with worse preoperative health status although this relationship varied depending on the morbidity construct: the eFI showing the strongest relationship but number of visits having no predictive value. By contrast, the benefits were not reduced in those with worse preoperative health, and improvement in both OHS and EQ-5D was observed in all the morbidity categories.

CONCLUSIONS

Independent of preoperative morbidity, THA leads to similar substantial improvements in quality of life. These are offset by an increase in medical complications in some subgroups of patients with high morbidity, depending on the definition used. For most elderly people, their other health disorders should not be a barrier for THA.

Influence of pre-existing multimorbidity on receiving a hip arthroplasty: cohort study of 28 025 elderly subjects from UK primary care

The median age for total hip arthroplasty (THA) is over 70 years with the corollary that many individuals have multiple multimorbidities. Despite the predicted improvement in quality of life, THA might be denied even to those with low levels of multimorbidity.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate how pre-existing levels of multimorbidity influence the likelihood and timing of THA.

SETTING

Longitudinal record linkage study of a UK sample linking their primary care to their secondary care records.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 28 025 patients were included, based on the recording of the diagnosis of hip osteoarthritis in a national primary care register, Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Data were extracted from the database on background health and morbidity status using five different constructs: Charlson Comorbidity Index, Electronic Frailty Index and counts of chronic diseases (from list of 17), prescribed medications and number of primary care visits prior to recording of osteoarthritis.

OUTCOME MEASURES

The record of having received a THA as recorded in the primary care record and the linked secondary care database: Hospital Episode Statistics.

RESULTS

40% had THA: median follow 10 months (range 1-17 years). Increased multimorbidity was associated with a decreased likelihood of undergoing THA, irrespective of the method of assessing multimorbidity although the impact varied by approach.

CONCLUSION

Markers of pre-existing ill health influence the decision for THA in the elderly with end-stage hip osteoarthritis, although these effects are modest for indices of multimorbidity other than eFI. There is evidence of this influence being present even in people with moderate decrements in their health, despite the balance of benefits to risk in these individuals being positive.

O16 Development of risk calculators for hand osteoarthritis and invasive treatment

Aim

Develop a prediction model for incident radiographic IPJ osteoarthritis when multiple clinical risk factors are present.

Methods

This study used secondary analysis from the Chingford 1000 Women Study, a prospective cohort of women aged 45 to 64 years. At baseline, anthropometric, clinical, and lifestyle measured had been collected. Hand radiographs had been taken at baseline and 10 years, read using the Kellgren-Lawrence atlas. For the current study, participants with osteoarthritis (Kellgren-Lawrence ≥2) in any IPJ at baseline were excluded. Risk factors were selected from baseline based on biological plausibility, a published systematic review, and a Delphi study of Hand Surgeons. Incident osteoarthritis was diagnosed at 10 years if ≥ 1 IPJ was Kellgren-Lawrence ≥2. The model was built with logistic regression and elastic net penalisation, and performance assessed through discrimination (c-statistic) and calibration (c-slope). Complete case analysis was used.

Results

Of 1,003 participants, 459 participants were included in this study (median age: 51 years, 202 (44%) with IPJ osteoarthritis at follow-up). Manual occupation (P &lt; 0.01), base of thumb osteoarthritis (P &lt; 0.03), and older age (using a 3-knot spline) were the most important risk factors. C-statistic was 0.67 (0.62 to 0.72) and C-slope was 1.00 (0.68 to 1.34).

Conclusions

Osteoarthritis at the base of thumb and IPJs might be a continuum of the same disease. Knowledge of these modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors can inform prevention strategies.

POS0125 CALCULATING RISK OF HAND OSTEOARTHRITIS PROGRESSION AT TEN YEARS THROUGH A PREDICTION MODEL

Background:

Hand osteoarthritis (OA) is a chronic, progressive disease, commonly affecting middle aged women. OA at the interphalangeal joints (IPJs) or the thumb base are considered different disease subsets (1). Few studies have investigated individual risk factors for IPJ OA progression (2). Prediction models can be used to calculate overall disease risk from multiple risk factors. This can guide prevention and treatment options.

Objectives:

Develop and internally validate a prediction model for IPJ OA progression.

Methods:

Data from the Chingford 1000 Women Study (Chingford Study), the largest population-based cohort worldwide assessing hand OA, was used. It is representative of the middle-aged female population in the United Kingdom (3). At baseline, 1,003 women aged 45 to 64 years’ old were recruited, and 693 measurements taken. Hand radiographs were taken at baseline and after ten years, read using the Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) atlas (inter-observer correlation: ≥0.7 (4)).

For the current study, participants must have had OA (KL ≥2 in ≥1 IPJ) on baseline hand radiographs. Participants with KL 4 in all 16 IPJs at baseline were excluded. Risk factors from the Chingford Study at baseline were selected by biological plausibility, literature evidence (2), and hand surgeons‘ consensus (5): age (years), occupation (manual versus non manual), OA in ≥1 thumb base (KL ≥2 versus KL<2), body mass index (BMI) (kg/m2), family history of hand OA (yes versus no). The outcome was defined on an ordinal scale for the number of IPJs (up to >5 IPJs) with OA progression (increase by KL ≥1), at ten years’.

The prediction model was developed using a penalized proportional odds logistic regression. Odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) were reported for each risk factor. The model was internally validated using 2,000 bootstrap iterations. Model performance was assessed for discrimination (C-statistic), and calibration (C-slope). 3.5% of data was missing, and complete case analysis was used.

Results:

699 women had baseline hand radiographs: 38 were unreadable, 459 had no IPJ OA. Seven participants had missing data (occupation: 5, BMI: 1, family history: 1) and were excluded. 195 participants were included this study. Median age at baseline was 59 (interquartile range: 8) years.

181 (92.8%) participants had OA progression at 10 years (Figure 1). Thumb base OA (odds ratio: 1.32 (0.93 to 1.88)) was most strongly associated with IPJ OA progression (Table 1). C-statistic was 0.57, and calibration slope was 1.38 for the optimism-corrected model.

Table 1.

Odds ratios for risk factors

Risk factorOdds ratio (95% confidence interval)Age (years)1.02 (0.99 to 1.06)Occupation (manual versus non manual)0.88 (0.60 to 1.29)Thumb base OA (Kellgren-Lawrence grade ≥2 versus <2)1.32 (0.93 to 1.88)Family history of hand OA (yes versus no)1.03 (0.72 to 1.45)Body mass index (kg/m2)1.04 (0.99 to 1.09)

OA: Osteoarthritis

Conclusion:

More stringent cut-offs for OA progression would be clinically useful. It was only weakly possible to predict which participants with IPJ OA would progress. This suggests that other risk factors, such as gender, ethnicity and genetics, may be predominant.

Figure 1.

Hand interphalangeal joints with osteoarthritis progression (Kellgren-Lawrence grade ≥1) at 10 years’ follow up

References:

[1]Kloppenburg M, et al. Research in hand osteoarthritis: time for reappraisal and demand for new strategies. Ann Rheum Dis. 2007;66(9):1157-61.

[2]Shah K, et al. Risk factors for the progression of finger interphalangeal joint osteoarthritis: a systematic review. Rheumatol Int. 2020;40(11):1781-1792.

[3]Hart DJ, Spector TD. The relationship of obesity, fat distribution and osteoarthritis in women in the general population: the Chingford Study. J Rheumatol. 1993;20:331-335.

[4]Hart DJ, et al. Reliability and reproducibility of grading radiographs for osteoarthritis of the hand. Br J Rheum. 1993;32:S1.

[5]Shah K, et al. Delphi consensus of risk factors for development and progression of finger interphalangeal joint osteoarthritis. J Hand Surg Eur Vol. 2019;44(10):1089-1090.

Acknowledgements:

We would like to thank all of the participants of The Chingford 1000 Women Study, Professor Tim Spector, Dr Deborah Hart, Dr Alan Hakim, Maxine Daniels, Alison Turner, James van Santen and Julie Damnjanovic for their time and dedication.

Disclosure of Interests:

Karishma Shah: None declared, Garrett Bullock: None declared, Alan Silman: None declared, Dominic Furniss: None declared, Nigel Arden Consultant of: Receives personal fees from Pfizer/Lily for consultancy outside the scope of this work, Grant/research support from: Receives grant from Merck outside the scope of this work, Gary Collins: None declared

Musculoskeletal pain and loneliness, social support and social engagement among older adults: Analysis of the Oxford Pain, Activity and Lifestyle cohort

Background

Musculoskeletal (MSK) pain is common in older adults. Physical and psychological consequences of MSK pain have been established, but it is also important to consider the social impact. We aimed to estimate the association between MSK pain and loneliness, social support and social engagement.

Methods

We used baseline data from the Oxford Pain, Activity and Lifestyle study. Participants were community‐dwelling adults aged 65 years or older from across England. Participants reported demographic information, MSK pain by body site, loneliness, social support and social engagement. We categorised pain by body regions affected (upper limb, lower limb and spinal). Widespread pain was defined as pain in all three regions. We used logistic regression models to estimate associations between distribution of pain and social factors, controlling for covariates.

Results

Of the 4977 participants analysed, 4193 (84.2%) reported any MSK pain, and one‐quarter (n = 1298) reported widespread pain. Individuals reporting any pain were more likely to report loneliness (OR [odds ratio]: 1.62; 95% CI [confidence interval]: 1.32–1.97) or insufficient social support (OR: 1.54; 95% CI: 1.08–2.19) compared to those reporting no pain. Widespread pain had the strongest association with loneliness (OR: 1.94; 95% CI: 1.53–2.46) and insufficient social support (OR: 1.71; 95% CI: 1.14–2.54). Pain was not associated with social engagement.

Conclusions

Older adults commonly report MSK pain, which is associated with loneliness and perceived insufficiency of social support. This finding highlights to clinicians and researchers the need to consider social implications of MSK pain in addition to physical and psychological consequences.

Childhood overweight and obesity and back pain risk: a cohort study of 466 997 children

OBJECTIVES

To assess the association between age, sex, socioeconomic group, weight status and back pain risk in a large general population cohort of children.

DESIGN AND SETTING

A dynamic cohort of children aged 4 years in the Information System for Research in Primary Care (SIDIAP) electronic primary care records data in Catalonia. Multivariable Cox models were fitted to explore the association between back pain and weight status categories according to the WHO 2007 growth reference groups (body mass index for age z-score). Models were adjusted for age, sex, socioeconomic status and nationality.

PARTICIPANTS

Children seen at age 4 years at paediatric primary care clinics between 1 January 2006 and 31 December 2013 and followed up until 31 December 2016 or age 15 years.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Incident back pain registered by paediatricians at primary care using the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Health Related Problems, 10th Edition code M54.

RESULTS

466 997 children were followed for a median 5.0 years (IQR 5.1). In multivariable models, overweight and obesity increased back pain risk, with adjusted HRs of 1.18 (95% CI 1.09 to 1.27) and 1.34 (95%CI 1.19 to 1.51) for overweight and obesity, respectively. Females were at greater risk of back pain than males with adjusted HR 1.40 (95%CI 1.35 to 1.46). Adjusted HR was 1.43 (95%CI 1.33 to 1.55) for back pain in children from the most deprived socioeconomic groups compared with the least deprived socioeconomic groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Maintaining a healthy weight from an early age may reduce the prevalence of back pain in both children and adults. Overweight female children from deprived socioeconomic groups are at greatest risk of back pain and represent a target population for intervention.

FRI0511 THE DESCRIPTIVE EPIDEMIOLOGY AND SECULAR TRENDS OF LOWER BACK PAIN PROCEDURES IN ROUTINE UK NHS CARE FROM 2000 TO 2016

Background:

The lifetime prevalence of lower back pain is between 60% and 70%, with surgical treatments spared for those not responding to other options.

Objectives:

To investigate the age, gender and socio-economic status differences in back pain procedures in the UK between 2000, 2008 and 2016.

Methods:

Data was obtained from primary care electronic medical records (CPRD GOLD) linked to English hospital admissions data. Lower back procedures in patients aged 35+ were identified using OPCS-4 codes for Decompression (Dc), Fusion (F), Therapeutic injections (TI) and Denervation (Dn). Standardised incidence rates (IR) of each type of lower back procedures were calculated per 10,000 CPRD registered person years for each age group, gender, region and SES strata in 2000, 2008 and 2016. IR were also calculated for combinations of age and gender. Negative binomial regression calculated incidence rate ratios (IRR) and 95% confidence intervals.

Results:

The IR of lower back procedures was 21.5 [20.7, 22.3] per 10,000 person years in 2000. This doubled by 2008 (45.5 [44.5, 46.5]) and trebled by 2016 (62.5 [60.8, 64.2]). Number of events and incidence rates of each procedure type are shown in table 1 below. The incidence of Dn has increased 6-fold whilst Dc and F have doubled. Female (IR in 2016 of 73.99 [71.43, 76.61] vs 50.08 [47.90, 52.33] in men, IRR 1.50 [1.41, 1.59]) and age are associated with back procedure rates (figure 1). Large socio-economic differences were observed, with higher procedure rates seen in the most deprived areas. These differences did however narrow over time during the study period (figure 2).

Table 1.

Event numbers and incidence rates of different types of lower back procedure.

FusionDecompressionTherapeutic InjectionDenervationEventsIR (95% CI)EventsIR (95% CI)EventsIR (95% CI)EventsIR (95% CI)20001090.86 (0.71, 1.04)4663.69 (3.36, 4.04)203516.11 (15.42, 16.82)910.72 (0.58, 0.88)20083331.77 (1.58, 1.97)11976.35 (6.00, 6.72)628333.35 (32.53, 34.18)5963.16 (2.91, 3.43)20161591.93 (1.65, 2.26)5256.39 (5.85, 6.96)386547.03 (45.56, 48.54)4875.93 (5.41, 6.48)Figure 1.

Age and Gender stratified incidence rate ratios of all back procedures in 2000, 2008 and 2016

Figure 2.

Deprivation status incidence rate ratios by year

Conclusion:

The incidence of lower back procedures has more than trebled since 2000. Women are more likely to have lower back procedures than men, with patients aged 65-74 the most likely to have a procedure. Procedures in those aged 75+ have become more common over time, potentially increasing the risk of post-operative complications. Socio-economic differences in the incidence of low back procedures are probably related to the known higher prevalence of back pain in deprived areas. Whether the observed narrowing in socio-economic variation over time is explained by a reduced need or by lowered provision needs further research.

Disclosure of Interests:

Danielle E Robinson: None declared, Jennifer Lane: None declared, Richard Craig: None declared, Andrew Judge: None declared, James Bailey: None declared, Dahai Yu: None declared, Kelvin Jordan: None declared, George Peat: None declared, Ross Wilkie: None declared, Alan Silman: None declared, Victoria Y Strauss: None declared, Daniel Prieto-Alhambra Grant/research support from: Professor Prieto-Alhambra has received research Grants from AMGEN, UCB Biopharma and Les Laboratoires Servier, Consultant of: DPA’s department has received fees for consultancy services from UCB Biopharma, Speakers bureau: DPA’s department has received fees for speaker and advisory board membership services from Amgen

Lifetime risk of knee and hip replacement following a diagnosis of RA: findings from a cohort of 13 961 patients from England

Objective

To estimate the lifetime risk of knee and hip replacement following a diagnosis of RA.

Methods

The analysis was undertaken using routinely collected data from the English NHS. Diagnosis of RA was identified using primary care records, with knee and hip replacement observed in linked hospital records. Parametric survival models were fitted for up to 15 years of follow-up, with age, sex, Charlson comorbidity score, socioeconomic status, BMI and smoking status included as explanatory variables. A decision model was used to combine and extrapolate survival models to estimate lifetime risk.

Results

The number of individuals with a diagnosis of RA and included in the study was 13 961. Lifetime risk of knee replacement and hip replacement was estimated to be 22% (95% CI: 16, 29%) and 17% (95% CI: 11, 26%) following a diagnosis of RA for the average patient profile (non-smoking women aged 64 with no other comorbidities, BMI of 27 and in the top socioeconomic quintile). Risks were higher for younger patients.

Conclusion

The lifetime risk of knee and hip replacement for individuals with a diagnosis of RA is approximately double that of the general population. These findings allow for a better understanding of long-term prognosis and healthcare resource use, and highlight the importance of timely diagnosis and effective treatment.

The impact of BMI and smoking on risk of revision following knee and hip replacement surgery: evidence from routinely collected data

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to assess the association of body mass index (BMI) and smoking with risk of revision following total knee replacement (TKR) and total hip replacement (THR).

DESIGN

Primary care data, from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD), was linked to inpatient hospital records, from Hospital Episode Statistics Admitted Patient Care (HES APC), and covered 1997 to 2014. Parametric survival models, with BMI and smoking status included as explanatory variables, were estimated for 10-year risk of revision and mortality, and were extrapolated to estimate lifetime risk of revision.

FINDINGS

TKR and THR cohorts included 10,260 and 10,961 individuals, respectively. For a change in BMI from 25 to 35, the 10-year risk of revision is expected change from 4.6% (3.3-6.4%) to 3.7% (2.6-5.1%) for TKR and 3.7% (2.8-5.1%) to 4.0% (2.8-5.7%) for THR for an otherwise average patient profile. Meanwhile, changing from a non-smoker to a current smoker is expected to change the risk of revision from 4.1% (3.1-5.5%) to 2.8% (1.7-4.7%) for TKR and from 3.8% (2.8-5.3%) to 2.9% (1.9-4.7%) for THR for an otherwise average patient profile. Estimates of lifetime risk were also similar for different values of BMI or smoking status.

CONCLUSIONS

Obesity and smoking do not appear to have a meaningful impact on the risk of revision following TKR and THR.

The effect of rheumatoid arthritis on patient-reported outcomes following knee and hip replacement: evidence from routinely collected data

OBJECTIVES

To compare outcomes of total knee replacement (TKR) and total hip replacement (THR) for individuals with RA and OA.

METHODS

We performed a cohort study using routinely collected data. Oxford Knee Score, Oxford Hip Score, and EuroQol 5-dimension 3-level (EQ-5D-3L) questionnaires were collected before and 6 months after surgery. Multivariable regressions were used to estimate the association between diagnosis and post-operative scores after controlling for pre-operative scores and patient characteristics.

RESULTS

Study cohorts included 2070 OA and 142 RA patients for TKR and 2030 OA and 98 RA patients for THR. Following TKR, the median Oxford Knee Score was 37 [interquartile range (IQR) 29-43] for OA and 36 (27-42) for RA while the median EQ-5D-3L was 0.76 (0.69-1.00) and 0.69 (0.52-0.85), respectively. After THR, the Oxford Hip Score was 42 (IQR 36-46) for OA and 39 (30-44) for RA while the EQ-5D-3L was 0.85 (0.69-1.00) and 0.69 (0.52-1.00), respectively. The estimated effect of RA, relative to OA, on post-operative scores was -0.05 (95% CI -1.57, 1.48) for the Oxford Knee Score, -0.09 (-0.13, -0.06) for the EQ-5D-3L following TKR, -1.35 (-2.93, -0.22) for the Oxford Hip Score, and -0.08 (-0.12, -0.03) for the EQ-5D-3L following THR.

CONCLUSION

TKR and THR led to substantial improvements in joint-specific scores and overall quality of life. While diagnosis had no clinically meaningful effect on joint-specific outcomes, improvements in general quality of life were somewhat less for those with RA, which is likely due to the systemic and multijoint nature of rheumatoid disease.

The impact of rheumatoid arthritis on the risk of adverse events following joint replacement: a real-world cohort study

Purpose

To assess whether rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is associated with a greater risk of adverse events following total knee replacement (TKR) and total hip replacement (THR) than osteoarthritis (OA).

Patients and methods

Individuals with a diagnosis of RA or OA were identified using primary care records. TKR and THR following diagnosis were identified using linked hospital records. Myocardial infarction (MI), prosthetic joint infection (PJI), venous thromboembolism (VTE), and death were identified within 90 days following surgery, and revision procedures over 10 years following surgery. The impact of RA compared to OA on the risk for these adverse events was assessed using Cox proportional hazard models. Univariable models, with diagnosis as the only explanatory variable, and multivariable models, with age, gender, and year of surgery first added and then a measure of other comorbidities also included, were estimated.

Results

In all 20,763 individuals, with 10,260 TKR and 10,961 THR, were included in the analysis. Compared to those with OA, individuals with a diagnosis of RA had a greater incidence of MI over 90 days following TKR (OA: 0.28%, RA: 0.75%) and revision over 10 years following THR (OA: 5.55%, RA: 8.68%). Both of these differences were statistically significant with, for example, hazard ratios of 3.54 (1.44 to 8.73) for MI and 1.61 (1.06 to 2.46) for revision after controlling for age, gender, year of surgery, and other comorbidities.

Conclusion

These findings suggest that, compared to individuals with OA, those with RA have an increased short-term risk of MI following TKR. While risk of MI remains below 1%, this does underline the importance of the management of cardiovascular risk factors for those with RA. RA was also associated with an increased long-term risk of revision following THR, which strengthens the argument for investing in therapies which may prevent the need for joint replacement.

Disability, fatigue, pain and their associates in early diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis: the European Scleroderma Observational Study

Objectives

Our aim was to describe the burden of early dcSSc in terms of disability, fatigue and pain in the European Scleroderma Observational Study cohort, and to explore associated clinical features.

Methods

Patients completed questionnaires at study entry, 12 and 24 months, including the HAQ disability index (HAQ-DI), the Cochin Hand Function Scale (CHFS), the Functional Assessment of Chronic Illness Therapy-fatigue and the Short Form 36 (SF36). Associates examined included the modified Rodnan skin score (mRSS), current digital ulcers and internal organ involvement. Correlations between 12-month changes were also examined.

Results

The 326 patients recruited (median disease duration 11.9 months) displayed high levels of disability [mean (s.d.) HAQ-DI 1.1 (0.83)], with ‘grip’ and ‘activity’ being most affected. Of the 18 activities assessed in the CHFS, those involving fine finger movements were most affected. High HAQ-DI and CHFS scores were both associated with high mRSS (ρ = 0.34, P < 0.0001 and ρ = 0.35, P < 0.0001, respectively). HAQ-DI was higher in patients with digital ulcers (P = 0.004), pulmonary fibrosis (P = 0.005), cardiac (P = 0.005) and muscle involvement (P = 0.002). As anticipated, HAQ-DI, CHFS, the Functional Assessment of Chronic Illness Therapy and SF36 scores were all highly correlated, in particular the HAQ-DI with the CHFS (ρ = 0.84, P < 0.0001). Worsening HAQ-DI over 12 months was strongly associated with increasing mRSS (ρ = 0.40, P < 0.0001), decreasing hand function (ρ = 0.57, P < 0.0001) and increasing fatigue (ρ = −0.53, P < 0.0001).

Conclusion

The European Scleroderma Observational Study highlights the burden of disability in early dcSSc, with high levels of disability and fatigue, associating with the degree of skin thickening (mRSS). Impaired hand function is a major contributor to overall disability.

Trends and determinants of length of stay and hospital reimbursement following knee and hip replacement: evidence from linked primary care and NHS hospital records from 1997 to 2014

OBJECTIVES

To measure changes in length of stay following total knee and hip replacement (TKR and THR) between 1997 and 2014 and estimate the impact on hospital reimbursement, all else being equal. Further, to assess the degree to which observed trends can be explained by improved efficiency or changes in patient profiles.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study using routinely collected data.

SETTING

National Health Service primary care records from 1995 to 2014 in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink were linked to hospital inpatient data from 1997 to 2014 in Hospital Episode Statistics Admitted Patient Care.

PARTICIPANTS

Study participants had a diagnosis of osteoarthritis or rheumatoid arthritis.

INTERVENTIONS

Primary TKR, primary THR, revision TKR and revision THR.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Length of stay and hospital reimbursement.

RESULTS

10 260 primary TKR, 10 961 primary THR, 505 revision TKR and 633 revision THR were included. Expected length of stay fell from 16.0 days (95% CI 14.9 to 17.2) in 1997 to 5.4 (5.2 to 5.6) in 2014 for primary TKR and from 14.4 (13.7 to 15.0) to 5.6 (5.4 to 5.8) for primary THR, leading to savings of £1537 and £1412, respectively. Length of stay fell from 29.8 (17.5 to 50.5) to 11.0 (8.3 to 14.6) for revision TKR and from 18.3 (11.6 to 28.9) to 12.5 (9.3 to 16.8) for revision THR, but no significant reduction in reimbursement was estimated. The estimated effect of year of surgery remained similar when patient characteristics were included.

CONCLUSIONS

Length of stay for joint replacement fell substantially from 1997 to 2014. These reductions have translated into substantial savings. While patient characteristics affect length of stay and reimbursement, patient profiles have remained broadly stable over time. The observed reductions appear to be mostly explained by improved efficiency.

Association between NICE guidance on biologic therapies with rates of hip and knee replacement among rheumatoid arthritis patients in England and Wales: An interrupted time-series analysis

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the impact of NICE approval of tumor necrosis factor inhibitor (TNFi) therapies on the incidence of total hip replacement (THR) and total knee replacement (TKR) among rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients in England and Wales.

METHODS

Primary care data [Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD)] for the study period (1995-2014) were used to identify incident adult RA patients. The age and sex-standardised 5-year incidence of THR and TKR was calculated separately for RA patients diagnosed in each six-months between 1995-2009. We took a natural experimental approach, using segmented linear regression to estimate changes in level and trend following the publication of NICE TA 36 in March 2002, incorporating a 1-year lag. Regression coefficients were used to calculate average change in rates, adjusted for prior level and trend.

RESULTS

We identified 17,505 incident RA patients of whom 465 and 650 underwent THR and TKR surgery, respectively. The modeled average incidence of THR and TKR over the biologic-era was 6.57/1000 person years (PYs) and 8.51/1000 PYs, respectively, with projected (had pre-NICE TA 36 level and trend continued uninterrupted) figures of 5.63/1000 PYs and 12.92 PYs, respectively. NICE guidance was associated with a significant average decrease in TKR incidence of -4.41/1000 PYs (95% C.I. -6.88 to -1.94), equating to a relative 34% reduction. Overall, no effect was seen on THR rates.

CONCLUSIONS

Among incident RA patients in England and Wales, NICE guidance on TNFi therapies for RA management was temporally associated with reduced rates of TKR but not THR.

Treatment outcome in early diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis: the European Scleroderma Observational Study (ESOS)

Objectives

The rarity of early diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis (dcSSc) makes randomised controlled trials very difficult. We aimed to use an observational approach to compare effectiveness of currently used treatment approaches.

Methods

This was a prospective, observational cohort study of early dcSSc (within three years of onset of skin thickening). Clinicians selected one of four protocols for each patient: methotrexate, mycophenolate mofetil (MMF), cyclophosphamide or ‘no immunosuppressant’. Patients were assessed three-monthly for up to 24 months. The primary outcome was the change in modified Rodnan skin score (mRSS). Confounding by indication at baseline was accounted for using inverse probability of treatment (IPT) weights. As a secondary outcome, an IPT-weighted Cox model was used to test for differences in survival.

Results

Of 326 patients recruited from 50 centres, 65 were prescribed methotrexate, 118 MMF, 87 cyclophosphamide and 56 no immunosuppressant. 276 (84.7%) patients completed 12 and 234 (71.7%) 24 months follow-up (or reached last visit date). There were statistically significant reductions in mRSS at 12 months in all groups: −4.0 (−5.2 to −2.7) units for methotrexate, −4.1 (−5.3 to −2.9) for MMF, −3.3 (−4.9 to −1.7) for cyclophosphamide and −2.2 (−4.0 to −0.3) for no immunosuppressant (p value for between-group differences=0.346). There were no statistically significant differences in survival between protocols before (p=0.389) or after weighting (p=0.440), but survival was poorest in the no immunosuppressant group (84.0%) at 24 months.

Conclusions

These findings may support using immunosuppressants for early dcSSc but suggest that overall benefit is modest over 12 months and that better treatments are needed.

Trial registration number

NCT02339441.

Association between amputation, arthritis and osteopenia in British male war veterans with major lower limb amputations

Objectives: To investigate the association between amputation, osteoarthritis and osteopenia in male war veterans with major lower limb amputations. Specific questions were to determine whether lower limb amputees following trauma are at subsequent risk of developing osteoarthritis (OA) and osteoporosis of the hip on both the amputated and nonamputated sides.

Design: Retrospective cohort study in British Male Second World War veterans with major unilateral lower limb amputations.

Subjects: Seventy-five male Second World War veterans with major lower limb amputations known to be alive were invited to participate from a subregional rehabilitation centre. After exclusions, 44 agreed to attend for examination and radiological screening.

Methods: The presence of hip OA was determined from a single anterior posterior pelvic X-ray using two approaches: minimum joint space and the Kellgren and Lawrence (K&L) scoring system. Bone mineral density (BMD) was measured by a dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scan and prosthetic rehabilitation outcome measures were recorded.

Results: Twenty-seven (61%) hips on the amputated side and 10 (23%) on the nonamputated side were positive for OA (based on Kellgren and Lawrence grade of >2). Using a minimum joint space threshold of below 2.5 mm, 24 (55%) hips on the amputation side and 8 (18%) on the nonamputated side were also positive for OA. There was a threefold increased risk of OA for those with above-knee compared to a below-knee amputation. By contrast from published general population surveys, only 4 (11%) cases of hip OA would have been expected on both the amputated and nonamputated hips.

There was a significant decrease in femoral neck BMD in the amputated side ( p< 0.0001) and significantly lower BMD in above-knee amputees than in below-knee amputees ( p = 0.0027) as compared to normal age- and sexmatched population.

Conclusion: Male war veterans with unilateral major lower limb amputations develop significantly more osteoarthritis of the hip than expected on both ipsi- and contralateral sides. Amputation was also associated with loss of bone density. Above-knee amputees develop significantly more hip osteoarthritis and osteopenia of greater severity in the amputated side than below-knee amputees

Association between amputation, arthritis and osteopenia in British male war veterans with major lower limb amputations

Objectives: To investigate the association between amputation, osteoarthritis and osteopenia in male war veterans with major lower limb amputations. Specific questions were to determine whether lower limb amputees following trauma are at subsequent risk of developing osteoarthritis (OA) and osteoporosis of the hip on both the amputated and nonamputated sides.

Design: Retrospective cohort study in British Male Second World War veterans with major unilateral lower limb amputations.

Subjects: Seventy-five male Second World War veterans with major lower limb amputations known to be alive were invited to participate from a subregional rehabilitation centre. After exclusions, 44 agreed to attend for examination and radiological screening.

Methods: The presence of hip OA was determined from a single anterior posterior pelvic X-ray using two approaches: minimum joint space and the Kellgren and Lawrence (K&L) scoring system. Bone mineral density (BMD) was measured by a dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scan and prosthetic rehabilitation outcome measures were recorded.

Results: Twenty-seven (61%) hips on the amputated side and 10 (23%) on the nonamputated side were positive for OA (based on Kellgren and Lawrence grade of >2). Using a minimum joint space threshold of below 2.5 mm, 24 (55%) hips on the amputation side and 8 (18%) on the nonamputated side were also positive for OA. There was a threefold increased risk of OA for those with above-knee compared to a below-knee amputation. By contrast, from published general population surveys only 4 (11%) cases of hip OA would have been expected on both the amputated and nonamputated hips.

There was a significant decrease in femoral neck BMD in the amputated side ( p <0.0001) and significantly lower BMD in above-knee amputees than in below-knee amputees ( p = 0.0027) as compared to normal age-and sexmatched population.

Conclusion: Male war veterans with unilateral major lower limb amputations develop significantly more osteoarthritis of the hip than expected on both ipsi-and contralateral sides. Amputation was also associated with loss of bone density. Above-knee amputees develop significantly more hip osteoarthritis and osteopenia of greater severity in the amputated side than below-knee amputees.

UK biobank: an open access resource for identifying the causes of a wide range of complex diseases of middle and old age

Cathie Sudlow and colleagues describe the UK Biobank, a large population-based prospective study, established to allow investigation of the genetic and non-genetic determinants of the diseases of middle and old age.

Mapping pathogenesis of arthritis through small animal models

Animal models have been used for a number of decades to study arthritis and have contributed greatly to unravelling mechanisms of pathogenesis and validating new targets for treatment. All animal models have sets of limitations and over the years there has been natural refinement of existing models as well as creation of new ones. The success of genetic modification in mice has fuelled an exponential increase in the use of murine models for arthritis research and has significantly increased our understanding of disease processes. This review focuses on those rodent models of RA and OA that have current utility and are widely used by the research community. We highlight the subtle but important differences in existing models by positioning them on a pathogenesis map whereby model selection is determined by the specific aspect of disease to be studied. We discuss the evolving challenges in in vivo arthritis studies and our perceived gaps for future new model development. The document includes technical and cost implications of performing the described models, and the ethical considerations of such approaches.

Management of Behçet disease: a systematic literature review for the European League Against Rheumatism evidence-based recommendations for the management of Behçet disease

OBJECTIVES

To present and analyse the literature sources regarding the management of Behçet disease (BD) identified during the systematic literature research, which formed the basis for the European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) evidence-based recommendations for the management of BD.

METHODS

Problem areas and related keywords regarding the management of BD were determined by the multidisciplinary expert committee commissioned by EULAR for developing the recommendations. A systematic literature research was performed using MedLine and Cochrane Library resources through to December 2006. Meta-analyses, systematic reviews, randomised controlled trials (RCTs), open studies, observational studies, case control studies and case series' involving > or = 5 patients were included. For each intervention the effect size and number needed to treat were calculated for efficacy. Odds ratios and numbers needed to harm were calculated for safety issues of different treatment modalities where possible.

RESULTS

The literature research yielded 137 articles that met the inclusion criteria; 20 of these were RCTs. There was good evidence supporting the use of azathioprine and cyclosporin A in eye involvement and interferon (IFN)alpha in mucocutaneous involvement. There were no RCTs with IFNalpha or tumour necrosis factor (TNF)alpha antagonists in eye involvement. Similarly controlled data for the management of vascular, gastrointestinal and neurological involvement is lacking.

CONCLUSION

Properly designed, controlled studies (new and confirmatory) are still needed to guide us in managing BD.

A new paradigm for musculoskeletal clinical trials in the UK: the Arthritis Research Campaign (ARC) Clinical Studies Groups initiative

In October 2007, the UK Arthritis Research Campaign (ARC) launched a new approach for the support of clinical trials and related research in the UK. The initiative depends on a partnership between ARC, the UK Clinical Research Network (UKCRN) and the pharmaceutical and related industry. The aim is to develop nationally agreed strategic plans for intervention research for the major musculoskeletal disorders. These will range from testing experimental therapies to novel approaches/ways of using existing interventions, taking advantage of the opportunities afforded for the enhanced support for clinical trials promised by the establishment of local research networks within the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Comprehensive Clinical Research Network (CCRN). The initiative encourages greater collaboration with industry with a move to enhance industrial support for research strategies prioritized by the key stakeholders of health care professionals and patients.

The performance of anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide antibodies in predicting the severity of radiologic damage in inflammatory polyarthritis: results from the Norfolk Arthritis Register

Objective

Anti–cyclic citrullinated peptide (anti-CCP) antibodies are a stronger predictor of the severity of rheumatoid arthritis than is rheumatoid factor (RF). Their role in predicting outcome in unselected patients with new-onset inflammatory polyarthritis (IP) has not been examined. The aims of this study were to examine the role of baseline RF and anti-CCP antibodies in determining the likelihood of patients having erosions at presentation or in predicting future radiologic damage, and to determine whether anti-CCP antibodies or RF is sufficiently robust to be clinically useful in guiding treatment decisions in early IP.

Methods

Patients were recruited from the Norfolk Arthritis Register. Logistic regression models were fitted to test the ability of anti-CCP antibodies and RF to predict erosions. Further models were investigated to examine the role of anti-CCP antibodies in patients stratified by RF status.

Results

The presence of anti-CCP antibodies at baseline was strongly associated with both prevalent erosions (odds ratio [OR] 2.53 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.48–4.30]) and developing erosions at 5 years (OR 10.2 [95% CI 6.2–16.9]). These ORs were higher than those for RF (OR 1.63 [95% CI 0.94–2.82] and OR 3.4 [95% CI 2.2–5.2], respectively). The likelihood ratio (LR) for the prediction of prevalent erosions and erosions at 5 years was highest in the RF−subgroup (LR 2.2 and 5.8, respectively). However, 27% of anti-CCP−patients had developed erosions by 5 years.

Conclusion

Despite their strong association with the presence, development, and extent of erosions, anti-CCP antibodies alone are not a sufficiently accurate measure upon which to base clinical treatment decisions. Knowledge of anti-CCP antibody status is most informative in RF−negative patients.