Diet and cannibalism in plainfin midshipman Porichthys notatus

The macroscopic and microscopic diversity of potential food items available in the nests of plainfin midshipman Porichthys notatus were quantified and compared with items that were found in the stomach and intestine (digestive tract) of the guarding males. In this species, males occur as one of two possible reproductive morphs: guarder males that care for young and sneaker males that parasitize the courtship and care of guarder males. Although it was predicted that guarder males would have fewer feeding opportunities due to their confinement to the nest, they in fact had more food items in their digestive tracts than did sneaker males and females. Date in the breeding season (a proxy of care duration) and body condition were not correlated with the amount of food consumed by guarder males. The main type of food consumed was P. notatus embryos; 69% of all guarder males sampled had cannibalized offspring. By comparing the diet of both sexes and tactics, this study sheds light on some of the strategies designed to cope with the costs of providing parental care.

Decoupling the effects of logging and hunting on an afrotropical animal community

In tropical forests, hunting nearly always accompanies logging. The entangled nature of these disturbances complicates our ability to resolve applied questions, such as whether secondary and degraded forest can sustain populations of tropical animals. With the expansion of logging in central Africa, conservation depends on knowledge of the individual and combined impacts of logging and hunting on animal populations. Our goals were (1) to decouple the effects of selective logging and hunting on densities of animal guilds, including apes, duikers, monkeys, elephant, pigs, squirrels, and large frugivorous and insectivorous birds and (2) to compare the relative importance of these disturbances to the effects of local-scale variation in forest structure and fruit abundance. In northern Republic of Congo, we surveyed animals along 30 transects positioned in forest disturbed by logging and hunting, logging alone, and neither logging nor hunting. While sampling transects twice per month for two years, we observed 47 179 animals of 19 species and eight guilds in 1154 passages (2861 km). Species densities varied by as much as 480% among forest areas perturbed by logging and/or hunting, demonstrating the strong effects of these disturbances on populations of some species. Densities of animal guilds varied more strongly with disturbance type than with variation in forest structure, canopy cover, and fruit abundance. Independently, logging and hunting decreased density of some guilds and increased density of others: densities varied from 44% lower (pigs) to 90% higher (insectivorous birds) between logged and unlogged forest and from 61% lower (apes) to 77% higher (frugivorous birds) between hunted and unhunted forest. Their combined impacts exacerbated decreases in populations of some guilds (ape, duiker, monkey, and pig), but counteracted one another for others (squirrels, insectivorous and frugivorous birds). Together, logging and hunting shifted the relative abundance of the animal community away from large mammals toward squirrels and birds. Logged forest, even in the absence of hunting, does not maintain similar densities as unlogged forest for most animal guilds. To balance conservation with the need for economic development and wild meat in tropical countries, landscapes should be spatially managed to include protected areas, community hunting zones, and production forest.

Plants as reef fish: fitting the functional form of seedling recruitment

The life histories of many species depend first on dispersal to local sites and then on establishment. After dispersal, density-independent and density-dependent mortalities modify propagule supply, determining the number of individuals that establish. Because multiple factors influence recruitment, the dichotomy of propagule versus establishment limitation is best viewed as a continuum along which the strength of propagule or establishment limitation changes with propagule input. To evaluate the relative importance of seed and establishment limitation for plants, we (1) describe the shape of the recruitment function and (2) use limitation and elasticity analyses to quantify the sensitivity of recruitment to perturbations in seed limitation and density-independent and density-dependent mortality. Using 36 seed augmentation studies for 18 species, we tested four recruitment functions against one another. Although the linear model (accounting for seed limitation and density-independent mortality) fitted the largest number of studies, the nonlinear Beverton-Holt model (accounting for density-dependent mortality) performed better at high densities of seed augmentation. For the 18 species, seed limitation constrained population size more than other sources of limitation at ambient conditions. Seedling density reached saturation with increasing seed density in many studies, but at such high densities that seedling density was primarily limited by seed availability rather than microsite availability or density dependence.

A simple model for complex dynamical transitions in epidemics

Dramatic changes in patterns of epidemics have been observed throughout this century. For childhood infectious diseases such as measles, the major transitions are between regular cycles and irregular, possibly chaotic epidemics, and from regionally synchronized oscillations to complex, spatially incoherent epidemics. A simple model can explain both kinds of transitions as the consequences of changes in birth and vaccination rates. Measles is a natural ecological system that exhibits different dynamical transitions at different times and places, yet all of these transitions can be predicted as bifurcations of a single nonlinear model.

Analytic Models for the Patchy Spread of Plant Disease

Plant epidemiologists have long been concerned with the patchy nature of plant disease epidemics. This paper presents a new analytical model for patchy plant epidemics (and patchy dynamics in general), using a second-order approximation to capture the spatial dynamics in terms of the densities and spatial covariances of healthy and infected hosts. Using these spatial moment equations helps us to explain the dynamic growth of patchiness during the early phase of the epidemic, and how the patchiness feeds back on the growth rate of the epidemic. Both underlying heterogeneity in the host spatial arrangement and dynamically generated heterogeneity in the spatial arrangement of infected plants initially accelerate but later decelerate the epidemic.

Impact of vaccination on the spatial correlation and persistence of measles dynamics

The onset of measles vaccination in England and Wales in 1968 coincided with a marked drop in the temporal correlation of epidemic patterns between major cities. We analyze a variety of hypotheses for the mechanisms driving this change. Straightforward stochastic models suggest that the interaction between a lowered susceptible population (and hence increased demographic noise) and nonlinear dynamics is sufficient to cause the observed drop in correlation. The decorrelation of epidemics could potentially lessen the chance of global extinction and so inhibit attempts at measles eradication.

Spatial heterogeneity, nonlinear dynamics and chaos in infectious diseases

There is currently considerable interest in the role of nonlinear phenomena in the population dynamics of infectious diseases. Childhood diseases such as measles are particularly well documented dynamically, and have recently been the subject of analyses (of both models and notification data) to establish whether the pattern of epidemics is chaotic. Though the spatial dynamics of measles have also been extensively studied, spatial and nonlinear dynamics have only recently been brought together. The present review concentrates mainly on describing this synthesis. We begin with a general review of the nonlinear dynamics of measles models, in a spatially homogeneous environment. Simple compartmental models (specifically the SEIR model) can behave chaotically, under the influence of strong seasonal 'forcing' of infection rate associated with patterns of schooling. However, adding observed heterogeneities such as age structure can simplify the deterministic dynamics back to limit cycles. By contrast all current strongly seasonally forced stochastic models show large amplitude irregular fluctuations, with many more 'fadeouts' of infection that is observed in real communities of similar size. This indicates that (social and/or geographical) spatial heterogeneity is needed in the models. We review the exploration of this problem with nonlinear spatiotemporal models. The few studies to date indicate that spatial heterogeneity can help to increase the realism of models. However, a review of nonlinear analyses of spatially subdivided measles data show that more refinements of the models (particularly in representing the impact of human demographic changes on infection dynamics) are required. We conclude with a discussion of the implication of these results for the dynamics of infectious diseases in general and, in particular, the possibilities of cross fertilization between human disease epidemiology and the study of plant and animal diseases.

Chaos and biological complexity in measles dynamics

Measles epidemiology offers a unique perspective on the construction of models to describe the dynamics of ecological systems. Simple models of measles transmission can generate deterministic chaos by various mechanisms. However, incorporating more biological realism into the model, in the form of age structure and realism in the seasonal forcing function, can suppress complex dynamics. Adding stochastic terms to the models restores complex dynamics, but raises new questions about demographic scale and population structure in these models.