Ambulatory blood pressure after 12 weeks of quadruple combination of quarter doses of blood pressure medication vs. standard medication

BACKGROUND

A combination of four ultra-low-dose blood pressure (BP) medications lowered office BP more effectively than initial monotherapy in the QUARTET trial. The effects on average ambulatory BP changes at 12 weeks have not yet been reported in detail.

METHODS

Adults with hypertension who were untreated or on monotherapy were eligible for participation. Overall, 591 participants were randomized to either the quadpill (irbesartan 37.5 mg, amlodipine 1.25 mg, indapamide 0.625 mg, and bisoprolol 2.5 mg) or monotherapy control (irbesartan 150 mg). The difference in 24-h, daytime, and night-time systolic and diastolic ambulatory BP at 12 weeks along further metrics were predefined secondary outcomes.

RESULTS

Of 576 participants, 289 were randomized to the quadpill group and 287 to the monotherapy group. At 12 weeks, mean 24-h ambulatory SBP and DBP were 7.7 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 9.6-5.8] and 5.3 (95% CI: 6.5-4.1) mmHg lower in the quadpill vs. monotherapy group ( P  < 0.001 for both). Similar reductions in the quadpill group were observed for daytime (8.1/5.7 mmHg lower) and night-time (6.3/4.0 mmHg lower) BP at 12 weeks (all P  < 0.001) compared to monotherapy. The rate of BP control (24-h average BP < 130/80 mmHg) at 12 weeks was higher in the quadpill group (77 vs. 50%; P  < 0.001). The reduction in BP load was also more pronounced with the quadpill.

CONCLUSION

A quadruple quarter-dose combination compared with monotherapy resulted in greater ambulatory BP lowering across the entire 24-h period with higher ambulatory BP control rates and reduced BP variability at 12 weeks. These findings further substantiate the efficacy of an ultra-low-dose quadpill-based BP lowering strategy.

The impact of incident stroke on cognitive trajectories in later life

BACKGROUND

Cognitive impairment is common after stroke, and a large proportion of stroke patients will develop dementia. However, there have been few large prospective studies which have assessed cognition both prior to and after stroke. This study aims to determine the extent to which incident stroke impacts different domains of cognitive function in a longitudinal cohort of older community-dwelling individuals.

METHODS

19,114 older individuals without cardiovascular disease or major cognitive impairment were recruited and followed over a maximum 11 years. Stroke included ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke and was adjudicated by experts. Cognitive function was assessed regularly using Modified Mini-Mental State Examination (3MS), Hopkins Verbal Learning Test-Revised (HVLT-R), Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT), and Controlled Oral Word Association Test (COWAT). Linear mixed models were used to investigate the change in cognition at the time of stroke and decline in cognitive trajectories following incident stroke.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up period of 8.4 [IQR: 7.2, 9.6] years, 815 (4.3%) participants experienced a stroke. Over this time, there was a general decline observed in 3MS, HVLT-R delayed recall, and SDMT scores across participants. However, for individuals who experienced a stroke, there was a significantly greater decline across all cognitive domains immediately after the event immediately after the event (3MS: -1.03 [95%CI: -1.45, -0.60]; HVLT-R: -0.47 [-0.70, -0.24]; SDMT: -2.82 [-3.57, -2.08]; COWAT: -0.67 [-1.04, -0.29]) and a steeper long-term decline for three of these domains (3MS -0.62 [-0.88, -0.35]; COWAT: -0.30 [-0.46, -0.14]); HVLT-R: -0.12 [95%CI, -0.70, -0.24]). However individuals with stroke experienced no longer-term decline in SDMT compared to the rest of the participants.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings highlight the need for comprehensive neuropsychology assessments for ongoing monitoring of cognition following incident stroke; and potential early intervention.

Participants' views of ultra-low dose combination therapy for high blood pressure: a mixed-methods study from the QUARTET trial

Single-pill combination therapy containing four quarter-dose medications for high blood pressure improves BP control compared to monotherapy, however patient-reported acceptance of the quadpill as a treatment strategy remains undescribed. We collected within-trial feedback and interviewed participants from the quadruple ultra-low-dose treatment for hypertension (QUARTET) trial to characterise patient attitudes to this intervention. All trial participants were asked about ease and preference for the quadpill and provided an opportunity to give further comments on the trial at 12 weeks (trial primary endpoint) and 52 weeks extended follow-up. Separately, we used purposive and quota sampling for the semi-structured telephone interviews, with the resultant verbatim transcripts analysed using an inductive thematic analysis approach. Themes were re-evaluated after each successive interview, and at suspected data saturation, an additional interview conducted for confirmation. At 12 weeks follow-up, 502 of 591 (85%) participants responded to acceptability questions, and 359 of 417 (86%) responded at week 52. Most reported the trial capsule easy or very easy to take. From eight sites, 16 participants were interviewed between 5 August 2020 and 19 November 2020. All described a positive experience, preferred once-daily morning dosing and found routine facilitated adherence. Participants valued individual responsibility for adherence, and involvement of the general practitioner in blood-pressure management. Most reported capsule size did not deter adherence but desired a smaller capsule. Participants described a preference for minimising number and dosage of medications, reduced capsule size, and once-daily morning dosing. These findings suggest a preference for single-pill combination therapy for blood pressure lowering.

Therapeutic Inertia With Initial Low-Dose Quadruple Combination Therapy for Hypertension: Results From the QUARTET Trial

BACKGROUND

Low-dose combinations are a promising intervention for improving blood pressure (BP) control but their effects on therapeutic inertia are uncertain.

METHODS

Analysis of 591 patients randomized to an ultra-low-dose quadruple pill or initial monotherapy. The episode of therapeutic inertia was defined as a patient visit with a BP of >140/90 mm Hg without intensification of antihypertensive treatment. We compared the frequency of therapeutic inertia episodes between Quadpill and initial monotherapy as a proportion of the total population (intention-to-treat analysis with the denominator being all participants randomized) and as a proportion of people with uncontrolled BP (with the denominator being participants with uncontrolled BP).

RESULTS

Therapeutic inertia occurred in fewer participants randomized to Quadpill compared with monotherapy. For example, among the 390 participants with a 6-month follow-up, therapeutic inertia according to unattended BP was 21/192 (11%) versus 45/192 (23%), P=0.002. There were similar rates of therapeutic inertia among those with uncontrolled unattended BP in each group (all P>0.4). Consistent observations were seen with the use of attended office BP measures. The major determinants of not intensifying treatment during follow-up were BP readings that were close to target and large improvements in BP compared with the previous visit.

CONCLUSIONS

Among all treated individuals, low-dose Quadpill reduced the number of therapeutic inertia episodes compared with initial monotherapy. After the first follow-up visit, most high BP values did not lead to treatment intensification in both groups. Education is needed about the importance of treatment intensification despite a significant improvement in BP or BP being close to target.

REGISTRATION

URL: https://anzctr.org.au/Trial/Registration/TrialReview.aspx?ACTRN=ACTRN12616001144404; Unique identifier: ACTRN12616001144404.

Blood Pressure Lowering in Patients With Central Hypertension: A randomized Clinical Trial

BACKGROUND

Cuff blood pressure (BP) is recommended for guiding hypertension management. However, central BP has been proposed as a superior clinical measurement. This study aimed to determine whether controlling hypertension as measured by central BP was beneficial in reducing left ventricular mass index beyond control of standard cuff hypertension.

METHODS

This multicenter, open-label, blinded-end point trial was conducted in individuals treated for uncomplicated hypertension with controlled cuff BP (<140/90 mm Hg) but elevated central BP (≥0.5 SD above age- and sex-specific normal values). Participants were randomized to 24-months intervention with spironolactone 25 mg/day (n=148) or usual care control (n=153). The primary outcome was change in left ventricular mass index measured by cardiac MRI. Cuff and central BPs were measured by clinic, 7-day home and 24-hour ambulatory BPs.

RESULTS

At 24-months, there was a greater reduction in left ventricular mass index (-3.2 [95% CI, -5.0 to -1.3] g/m2; P=0.001) with intervention compared with control. Cuff and central BPs were lowered by a similar magnitude across all BP measurement modes (eg, clinic cuff systolic BP, -6.16 [-9.60 to -2.72] mm Hg and clinic central systolic BP, -4.96 [-8.06 to -1.86] mm Hg; P≥0.48 all). Secondary analyses found that changes in left ventricular mass index correlated to changes in BP, with the magnitude of effect nearly identical for BP measured by cuff (eg, 24-hour systolic BP, β, 0.17 [0.02-0.31] g/m2) or centrally (24-hour systolic BP, β, 0.16 [0.01-0.32] g/m2).

CONCLUSIONS

Among individuals with central hypertension, spironolactone had beneficial effects in reducing LV mass. Secondary analyses showed that changes in LV mass were equally well associated with lower measured standard cuff BP and central BP.

REGISTRATION

URL: https://www.anzctr.org.au/; Unique identifier: ACTRN12613000053729.

Prevalence and Predictors of Emergency Medical Service Use in Patients Undergoing Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention for ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction

AIM

We aim to describe prevalence of Emergency Medical Service (EMS) use, investigate factors predictive of EMS use, and determine if EMS use predicts treatment delay and mortality in our ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) cohort.

METHOD

We prospectively collected data on 5,602 patients presenting with STEMI for primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) transported to PCI-capable hospitals in Victoria, Australia, from 2013-2018 who were entered into the Victorian Cardiac Outcomes Registry (VCOR). We linked this dataset to the Ambulance Victoria and National Death Index (NDI) datasets. We excluded late presentation, thrombolysed, and in-hospital STEMI, as well as patients presenting with cardiogenic shock and out-of-hospital cardiac arrest.

RESULTS

In total, 74% of patients undergoing primary PCI for STEMI used EMS. Older age, female gender, higher socioeconomic status, and a history of prior ischaemic heart disease were independent predictors of using EMS. EMS use was associated with shorter adjusted door-to-balloon (53 vs 72 minutes, p<0.001) and symptom-to-balloon (183 vs 212 minutes, p<0.001) times. Mode of transport was not predictive of 30-day or 12-month mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

EMS use in Victoria is relatively high compared with internationally reported data. EMS use reduces treatment delay. Predictors of EMS use in our cohort are consistent with those prevalent in prior literature. Understanding the patients who are less likely to use EMS might inform more targeted education campaigns in the future.

Low-Density-Lipoprotein Cholesterol and Mortality Outcomes Among Healthy Older Adults: A Post Hoc Analysis of ASPREE Trial

BACKGROUND

The prognostic implication of cholesterol levels in older adults remains uncertain. This study aimed to examine the relationship between low-density-lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-c) and mortality outcomes in older individuals.

METHODS

This post hoc analysis examined the associations of LDL-c levels with mortality risks from all-cause, cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer, and combined non-CVD/noncancer conditions in a cohort of individuals aged ≥65 years from the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly trial (NCT01038583). At baseline, participants had no diagnosed dementia, physical disability, or CVD, and were not taking lipid-lowering agents. Outcome analyses were performed using multivariable Cox models.

RESULTS

We analyzed 12 334 participants (mean age: 75.2 years). Over a median 7-year follow-up, 1 250 died. Restricted cubic splines found a U-shaped relation for LDL-c and all-cause mortality, cancer mortality, and noncancer/non-CVE mortality (nadir: 3.3-3.4 mmol/L); the risk of CVD mortality was similar at LDL-c below 3.3 mmol/L and increased above 3.3 mmol/L. Similar trends were observed in analyses modeling LDL-c by quartiles. When modeling LDL-c as a continuous variable, the risk of all-cause mortality, cancer mortality, and noncancer/non-CVD mortality was decreased by 9%, 16%, and 18%, respectively, per 1-mmol/L higher LDL-c, and the risk of CVD mortality was increased by 19% per 1-mmol/L higher LDL-c. Reduced all-cause and non-CVD/noncancer mortality risks were only significant in males but not females (pinteraction < .05).

CONCLUSIONS

There were U-shaped relationships between LDL-c and all-cause mortality, cancer mortality, and noncancer/non-CVD mortality in healthy older adults. Higher LDL-c levels were associated with an increased risk of CVD mortality. Future studies are warranted to confirm our results.

Clinical Outcomes of Renal Transplant Recipients Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

BACKGROUND

Clinical outcomes of patients with renal transplant (RT) undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) remain poorly elucidated.

METHOD

Between 2014 and 2021, data were analysed for the following three groups of patients undergoing PCI enrolled in a multicentre Australian registry: (1) RT recipients (n=226), (2) patients on dialysis (n=992), and (3) chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR], 30‒60 mL/min per 1.73 m2) without previous RT (n=15,534). Primary outcome was 30-day major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCEs)-composite of mortality, myocardial infarction, stent thrombosis, target vessel revascularisation, and stroke.

RESULTS

RT recipients were younger than dialysis and patients with CKD (61±10 vs 68±12 vs 78±8.2 years, p<0.001). Patients with RT less frequently had severe left ventricular dysfunction compared with dialysis and CKD groups (6.7% vs 14% and 8.5%); however more, often presented with acute coronary syndrome (58% vs 52% and 48%), especially STEMI (all p<0.001). Patients with RT and CKD had lower rates of 30-day MACCE (4.4% and 6.8% vs 11.6%, p<0.001) than the dialysis group. Three-year survival was similar between RT and CKD groups, however was lower in the dialysis group (80% and 83% vs 60%, p<0.001). After adjustment, dialysis was an independent predictor of 30-day MACCE (odds ratio [OR] 1.90, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.44‒2.50, p<0.001), however RT was not (OR 0.91, CI 0.42‒1.96, p=0.802). Both RT (hazard ratio [HR] 2.07, CI 1.46‒2.95, p<0.001) and dialysis (HR 1.35, CI 1.02‒1.80, p=0.036) heightened the hazard of long-term mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

RT recipients have more favourable clinical outcomes following PCI compared with patients on dialysis. However, despite having similar short-term outcomes to patients with CKD, the hazard of long-term mortality is significantly greater for RT recipients.

No-Reflow Prediction in Acute Coronary Syndrome During Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: The NORPACS Risk Score

BACKGROUND

Suboptimal coronary reperfusion (no reflow) is common in acute coronary syndrome percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and is associated with poor outcomes. We aimed to develop and externally validate a clinical risk score for angiographic no reflow for use following angiography and before PCI.

METHODS

We developed and externally validated a logistic regression model for prediction of no reflow among adult patients undergoing PCI for acute coronary syndrome using data from the Melbourne Interventional Group PCI registry (2005-2020; development cohort) and the British Cardiovascular Interventional Society PCI registry (2006-2020; external validation cohort).

RESULTS

A total of 30 561 patients (mean age, 64.1 years; 24% women) were included in the Melbourne Interventional Group development cohort and 440 256 patients (mean age, 64.9 years; 27% women) in the British Cardiovascular Interventional Society external validation cohort. The primary outcome (no reflow) occurred in 4.1% (1249 patients) and 9.4% (41 222 patients) of the development and validation cohorts, respectively. From 33 candidate predictor variables, 6 final variables were selected by an adaptive least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model for inclusion (cardiogenic shock, ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction with symptom onset >195 minutes pre-PCI, estimated stent length ≥20 mm, vessel diameter <2.5 mm, pre-PCI Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction flow <3, and lesion location). Model discrimination was very good (development C statistic, 0.808; validation C statistic, 0.741) with excellent calibration. Patients with a score of ≥8 points had a 22% and 27% risk of no reflow in the development and validation cohorts, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The no-reflow prediction in acute coronary syndrome risk score is a simple count-based scoring system based on 6 parameters available before PCI to predict the risk of no reflow. This score could be useful in guiding preventative treatment and future trials.

Sex differences in long-term survival after total arterial coronary artery bypass grafting

OBJECTIVES

It is uncertain if the evidence on improved long-term survival of total arterial coronary artery bypass grafting applies to female patients. This study aims to compare the long-term survival outcomes of using total arterial revascularization (TAR) versus at least 1 saphenous vein graft separately for men and women.

METHODS

This retrospective analysis of the Australian and New Zealand Society of Cardiac-Thoracic Surgical Database had administrative linkage to the National Death Index. We identified all patients undergoing primary isolated coronary bypass from June 2001 to January 2020 inclusive. Following sex stratification, propensity score matching with 36 variables and Cox proportional hazard regression were used to facilitate adjusted comparisons. A Cox interaction-term analysis was performed to investigate the impact of sex on TAR survival benefit. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

Of the 69 624 eligible patients receiving at least 2 grafts, 13 019 (18.7%) were female patients. Matching generated 14 951 male and 3530 female pairs. Compared to vein-dependent procedures, TAR was associated with significantly reduced incidence of long-term all-cause mortality for both male (hazard ratio, 0.86; 95% confidence interval, 0.81-0.91; P < 0.001) and female (hazard ratio, 0.82; 95% confidence interval, 0.73-0.91; P < 0.001) cohorts. Interaction-term analysis indicated no significant subgroup effect from sex (P = 0.573) on the survival advantage of TAR. The treatment effect provided by TAR remained significant across most sex-stratified disease subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS

TAR, when compared to the use of at least 1 saphenous vein graft, provides comparable superior long-term survival outcomes in both females and males.

Association between long-term use of calcium channel blockers (CCB) and the risk of breast cancer: a retrospective longitudinal observational study protocol

INTRODUCTION

Calcium channel blockers (CCB), a commonly prescribed antihypertensive (AHT) medicine, may be associated with increased risk of breast cancer. The proposed study aims to examine whether long-term CCB use is associated with the development of breast cancer and to characterise the dose-response nature of any identified association, to inform future hypertension management.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The study will use data from 2 of Australia's largest cohort studies; the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health, and the 45 and Up Study, combined with the Rotterdam Study. Eligible women will be those with diagnosed hypertension, no history of breast cancer and no prior CCB use at start of follow-up (2004-2009). Cumulative dose-duration exposure to CCB and other AHT medicines will be captured at the earliest date of: the outcome (a diagnosis of invasive breast cancer); a competing risk event (eg, bilateral mastectomy without a diagnosis of breast cancer, death prior to any diagnosis of breast cancer) or end of follow-up (censoring event). Fine and Gray competing risks regression will be used to assess the association between CCB use and development of breast cancer using a generalised propensity score to adjust for baseline covariates. Time-varying covariates related to interaction with health services will also be included in the model. Data will be harmonised across cohorts to achieve identical protocols and a two-step random effects individual patient-level meta-analysis will be used.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval was obtained from the following Human research Ethics Committees: Curtin University (ref No. HRE2022-0335), NSW Population and Health Services Research Ethics Committee (2022/ETH01392/2022.31), ACT Research Ethics and Governance Office approval under National Mutual Acceptance for multijurisdictional data linkage research (2022.STE.00208). Results of the proposed study will be published in high-impact journals and presented at key scientific meetings.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT05972785.

Comparison of Characteristics and Outcomes in Patients With Acute Decompensated Heart Failure Admitted Under General Medicine and Cardiology Units

BACKGROUND

Acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) is a leading cause of cardiovascular disease hospitalisations associated with significant morbidity and mortality. In hospitals, HF patients are typically managed by cardiology or physician teams, with differences in patient demographics and clinical outcomes. This study utilises contemporary HF registry data to compare patient characteristics and outcomes in those with ADHF admitted into General Medicine and Cardiology units.

METHODS

The Victorian Cardiac Outcomes Registry was utilised to identify patients hospitalised with ADHF 30-day period in each of four consecutive years. We compared patient characteristics, pharmacological management and outpatient follow-up of patients admitted to General Medicine and Cardiology units. Primary outcome measures included in-hospital mortality, 30-day readmission, and 30-day mortality.

RESULTS

Between 2014 and 2017, a total of 1,253 patients with ADHF admissions were registered, with 53% admitted in General Medicine units and 47% in Cardiology units. General Medicine patients were more likely to be older (82 vs 71 years; p<0.001), female (51% vs 34%; p<0.001), and have higher prevalence of comorbidities and preserved left ventricular function (p<0.001). There were no differences in primary outcome measures between General Medicine and Cardiology in terms of: in-hospital mortality (5.0% vs 3.9%; p=0.35), 30-day readmission (23.4% vs 23.6%; p=0.93), and 30-day mortality (10.0% vs 8.0%; p=0.21).

CONCLUSIONS

Hospitalised patients with HF continue to have high mortality and rehospitalisation rates. The choice of treatment by General Medicine or Cardiology units, based on the particular medical profile and individual needs of the patients, provides equivalent outcomes.

Electrocardiographic patterns and clinical outcomes of acute coronary syndrome cardiogenic shock in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention - A propensity score analysis

OBJECTIVES

To determine the influence of presenting electrocardiographic (ECG) changes on prognosis in acute coronary syndrome cardiogenic shock (ACS-CS) patients undergoing percutaneous coronary angiography (PCI).

BACKGROUND

The effect of initial ECG changes such as ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) versus non-STEMI among patients ACS-CS on prognosis remains unclear.

METHODS

We analysed data from consecutive patients with ACS-CS enrolled in the Victorian Cardiac Outcomes registry between 2014 and 2020. Inverse probability of treatment weighting analysis (IPTW) was used to assess the effect of ECG changes on 30-day mortality.

RESULTS

Of 1564 patients with ACS-CS who underwent PCI, 161 had non-STEMI and 1403 had STEMI on ECG. The mean age was 66 ± 13 years, and 74 % (1152) were males. Patients with non-STEMI compared to STEMI were older (70 ± 12 vs 65 ± 13 years), had higher rates of diabetes (34 % vs 21 %), prior coronary artery bypass graft surgery (14 % vs 3.3 %), peripheral arterial disease (10.6 % vs 4.1 %, p < 0.01), and lower baseline eGFR (53.8 [37.1, 75.4] vs 65.3 [46.3, 87.8] ml/min/1.73m2), all p ≤ 0.01. Non-STEMI patients were more likely to have a culprit left circumflex artery (29 % vs 20 %) and more often underwent multivessel percutaneous coronary intervention (30 % vs 20 %) but had lower rates of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (21 % vs 39 %), all p ≤ 0.01. Propensity score analysis with IPTW confirmed that non-STEMI ECG was associated with lower odds for 30-day all-cause mortality (OR 0.47 [0.32, 0.69], p < 0.001), and 30-day major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (OR 0.48 [0.33, 0.70]).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients undergoing PCI, Non-STEMI as compared to STEMI on index ECG was associated with approximately half the relative risk of both 30-day mortality and 30-day MACCE and could be a useful variable to integrate in ACS-CS risk scores.

The ASPREE Healthy Ageing Biobank: Methodology and participant characteristics

ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE), a placebo-controlled prevention trial of low dose aspirin, provided the opportunity to establish a biospecimen biobank from initially healthy persons aged 70+ years for future research. The ASPREE Healthy Ageing Biobank (ASPREE Biobank) collected, processed and stored blood and urine samples at -80degC or under nitrogen vapour at two timepoints, three years apart, from a willing subset of Australian ASPREE participants. Written informed consent included separate opt-in questions for biomarker and genetic testing. Fractionated blood and urine were aliquoted into multiple low-volume, barcoded cryotubes for frozen storage within 4 hours of collection. Specially designed and outfitted mobile laboratories provided opportunities for participation by people in regional and rural areas. Detailed, high quality demographic, physiological and clinical data were collected annually through the ASPREE trial. 12,219 participants contributed blood/urine at the first timepoint, 10,617 of these older adults provided 3-year follow-up samples, and an additional 1,712 provided saliva for DNA. The mean participant age was 74 years, 54% were female and 46% lived outside major cities. Despite geographical and logistical challenges, nearly 100% of blood/urine specimens were processed and frozen within 4 hours of collection into >1.4 million aliquots. After a median of 4.7 years, major clinical events among ASPREE Biobank participants included 332 with dementia, 613 with cardiovascular disease events, 1259 with cancer, 357 with major bleeds and 615 had died. The ASPREE Biobank houses and curates a large number of biospecimens collected prior to the clinical manifestations of major disease, and 3-year follow-up samples, all linked to high quality, extensive phenotypic information. This provides the opportunity to identify or validate diagnostic, prognostic and predictive biomarkers, and potentially study biological effectors, of ageing-related diseases or maintenance of older-age good health.

Utilisation of Chronic Disease and Mental Health Management Services and Cardioprotective Medication Prescriptions in Primary Care for Patients With Cardiovascular Diseases and Cancer: A Cross-Sectional Study

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among cancer survivors. Mental health is considered an important risk factor affecting the treatment of cardiovascular disease. However, little is known about the use of secondary prevention strategies for CVD in patients with both cancer and CVD. This study aimed to compare the utilisation of primary care chronic disease management plans, mental health care and guideline-indicated cardioprotective medications among CVD patients with and without cancer.

METHODS

Retrospective cross-sectional study utilising clinical data of patients with CVD from 50 Australian primary care practices. Outcomes included the use of chronic disease management plans, mental health care, guideline-indicated cardioprotective medications and influenza vaccination. Logistic regression, accounting for demographic and clinical covariates and clustering effects by practices, was used to compare the two groups.

RESULTS

Of the 15,040 patients with CVD, 1,486 patients (9.9%) concurrently had cancer. Patients with cancer, compared to those without, were older (77.6 vs 71.8 years, p<0.001), more likely to drink alcohol (62.6% vs 55.7%, p<0.001), have lower systolic (130.3±17.8 vs 132.5±21.1 mmHg, p<0.001) and diastolic (72.2±11 vs 75.3±34 mmHg, p<0.001) blood pressure. Although suboptimal for both groups, patients with cancer were significantly more likely to have general practice management plans (GPMPs) (51.4% vs 43.2%, p<0.001), coordination of team care arrangements (TCAs) (46.2% vs 37.0%, p<0.001), have a review of either GPMP or TCA (42.8% vs 34.7%, p<0.001), have a mental health treatment consultation (15.4% vs 10.5%, p=0.004) and be prescribed blood pressure-lowering medications (70.1% vs 66.0%, p=0.002). However, there were no statistical differences in the prescription of lipid-lowering or antiplatelet medications. After adjustments for covariates and multiple testing, patients with cancer did not show a difference in GPMPs, TCAs, and a review of either, but were more likely to receive mental health treatment consultations than those without cancer (odds ratio 1.76; 95% confidence interval 1.42-2.19).

CONCLUSIONS

Less than half of patients with CVD had a GPMP, TCA or review of either. Although those patients with cancer were more likely to receive these interventions, still around half the patients did not. Medicare-funded GPMPs, TCAs and a review of either GPMP or TCA were underutilised, and future studies should seek to identify ways of improving access to these services.

Long-term blood pressure variability and frailty risk in older adults

INTRODUCTION

In healthy older adults, the relationship between long-term, visit-to-visit variability in blood pressure (BP) and frailty is uncertain.

METHODS

Secondary analysis of blood pressure variability (BPV) and incident frailty in >13 000 participants ≥65-70 years enrolled in the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) trial and its observational follow-up (ASPREE-XT). Participants were without dementia, physical disability, or cardiovascular disease at baseline. BPV was estimated using standard deviation of mean BP from three annual visits (baseline through the second annual follow-up). Frailty was defined using Fried phenotype and a frailty deficit accumulation index (FDAI). Participants with frailty during the BPV estimation period were excluded from the main analysis. Adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression evaluated the association between BPV and incident frailty, and linear mixed models for change in frailty scores, through a maximum of 9 years of follow-up.

RESULTS

Participants in the highest systolic BPV tertile were at higher risk of frailty compared to those in the lowest (referent) tertile of systolic BPV [Fried hazard ratio (HR) 1.17, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.04-1.31; FDAI HR 1.18, 95% CI 1.07-1.30]. Findings were consistent when adjusted for multiple covariates and when stratified by antihypertensive use. Linear mixed models showed that higher systolic BPV was associated with increasing frailty score over time. Diastolic BPV was not consistently associated.

CONCLUSIONS

High systolic BPV, independent of mean BP, is associated with increased risk of frailty in healthy older adults. Variability of BP across visits, even in healthy older adults, can convey important risk information beyond mean BP.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01038583 and ISRCTN83772183.

Development and Validation of Scores to Predict Prolonged Mechanical Ventilation after Cardiac Surgery

OBJECTIVES

To optimize the early prediction of prolonged postoperative mechanical ventilation after cardiac surgery (>24 hours postoperatively).

DESIGN

The authors performed a retrospective analysis.

SETTING

The Australian and New Zealand Society of Cardiac and Thoracic Surgeons (ANZSCTS) database was utilized.

PARTICIPANTS

All patients included in the ANZSCTS database between January 2015 and December 2018 were analyzed.

INTERVENTIONS

No interventions were performed in this observational study.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

A previously developed model was modified to allow retrospective risk calculation and model assessment (Modified Hessels score). The database was split into development and validation sets. A new risk model was developed using forward and backward stepwise elimination (ANZ-PreVent score). The authors assessed 48,382 patients, of whom 5004 (10.3%) were ventilated mechanically for >24 hours post-operatively. The Modified Hessels score demonstrated good performance in this database, with a c-index of 0.78 (95% CI 0.77-0.78) and a Brier score of 0.08. The newly developed ANZ-PreVent score demonstrated better performance (validation cohort, n = 12,229), with a c-index of 0.84 (95% CI 0.83-0.85) (p < 0.0001) and a Brier score of 0.07. Both scores performed better than the severity of illness scores commonly used to predict outcomes in intensive care.

CONCLUSIONS

The authors validated a modified version of an existing prediction score and developed the ANZ-PreVent score, with improved performance for identifying patients at risk of ventilation for >24 hours. The improved score can be used to identify high-risk patients for targeted interventions in future randomized controlled trials.

Daily low-dose aspirin and incident type 2 diabetes in community-dwelling healthy older adults: a post-hoc analysis of efficacy and safety in the ASPREE randomised placebo-controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Inflammation has been implicated in the pathogenesis of diabetes. This study investigated the randomised treatment effect of low-dose aspirin on incident type 2 diabetes and fasting plasma glucose (FPG) concentrations among older adults.

METHODS

ASPREE was a double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of daily oral low-dose aspirin. The study population included community-dwelling individuals aged 70 years or older (≥65 years for US minority ethnic groups) in the USA and Australia who were free of cardiovascular disease, independence-limiting physical disability, or dementia. For the post-hoc analysis, we excluded participants with diabetes at baseline or with incomplete or missing incident diabetes data during follow-up. Participants were randomly assigned 1:1 to oral 100 mg daily enteric-coated aspirin or placebo. Incident diabetes was defined as self-reported diabetes, commencement of glucose-lowering medication, or a FPG concentration of 7·0 mmol/L or more assessed at annual follow-up visits among participants with no diabetes at baseline. We used Cox proportional hazards models and mixed-model repeated measures to assess the effect of aspirin on incident diabetes and FPG concentrations in the intention-to-treat population. We assessed major bleeding in participants who had taken at least one dose of study medication.

FINDINGS

Between March 10, 2010, and Dec 24, 2014, a total of 16 209 participants were included (8086 [49·9%] randomly assigned to aspirin and 8123 [50·1%] randomly assigned to placebo). During a median follow-up of 4·7 years (IQR 3·6-5·7), 995 (in 6·1% individuals) incident cases of type 2 diabetes were recorded (459 in the aspirin group and 536 in the placebo group). Compared with placebo, the aspirin group had a 15% reduction in risk of incident diabetes (hazard ratio 0·85 [95% CI 0·75 to 0·97]; p=0·013) and a slower rate of increase in FPG concentration at year 5 (between-group difference estimate -0·048 mmol/L [95% CI -0·079 to -0·018]; p=0·0017). Major bleeding (major gastrointestinal bleeding, intracranial bleeding, and clinically significant bleeding at other sites) occurred in 510 (3·2%) of 16 104 participants (300 [3·7%] in the aspirin group and 210 [2·6%] in the placebo group). Compared with placebo, the aspirin group had a 44% increase in risk of major bleeding (hazard ratio 1·44 [95% CI 1·21 to 1·72]; p<0·0001).

INTERPRETATION

Aspirin treatment reduced the incidence of type 2 diabetes and slowed the increase in FPG concentration but increased major bleeding among community-dwelling older adults. Given the increasing prevalence of type 2 diabetes among older adults, the potential for anti-inflammatory agents such as aspirin to prevent type 2 diabetes or improve glucose levels warrants further study with a comprehensive assessment of all potential safety events of interest.

FUNDING

US National Institute on Aging, US National Cancer Institute, National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia, Monash University, and the Victorian Cancer Agency.

Multimorbidity impacts cardiovascular disease risk following percutaneous coronary intervention: latent class analysis of the Melbourne Interventional Group (MIG) registry

BACKGROUND

Multimorbidity is strongly associated with disability or functional decline, poor quality of life and high consumption of health care services. This study aimed (1) To identify patterns of multimorbidity among patients undergoing first recorded percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI); (2) To explore the association between the identified patterns of multimorbidity on length of hospital stay, 30-day and 12- month risk of major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) after PCI.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study of the Melbourne Interventional Group (MIG) registry. This study included 14,025 participants who underwent their first PCI from 2005 to 2015 in Victoria, Australia. Based on a probabilistic modelling approach, Latent class analysis was adopted to classify clusters of people who shared similar combinations and magnitude of the comorbidity of interest. Logistic regression models were used to estimate odd ratios and 95% confidence interval (CI) for the 30-day and 12-month MACCE.

RESULTS

More than two-thirds of patients had multimorbidity, with the most prevalent conditions being hypertension (59%) and dyslipidaemia (60%). Four distinctive multimorbidity clusters were identified each with significant associations for higher risk of 30-day and 12-month MACCE. The cluster B had the highest risk of 30-day MACCE event that was characterised by a high prevalence of reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate (92%), hypertension (73%) and reduced ejection fraction (EF) (57%). The cluster C, characterised by a high prevalence of hypertension (94%), dyslipidaemia (88%), reduced eGFR (87%), diabetes (73%) and reduced EF (65%) had the highest risk of 12-month MACCE and highest length of hospital stay.

CONCLUSION

Hypertension and dyslipidaemia are prevalent in at least four in ten patients undergoing coronary angioplasty. This study showed that clusters of patients with multimorbidity had significantly different risk of 30-day and 12-month MACCE after PCI. This suggests the necessity for treatment approaches that are more personalised and customised to enhance patient outcomes and the quality of care delivered to patients in various comorbidity clusters. These results should be validated in a prospective cohort and to evaluate the potential impacts of these clusters on the prevention of MACCE after PCI.

Platelet versus fresh frozen plasma transfusion for coagulopathy in cardiac surgery patients

BACKGROUND

Platelets (PLTS) and fresh frozen plasma (FFP) are often transfused in cardiac surgery patients for perioperative bleeding. Their relative effectiveness is unknown.

METHODS

We conducted an entropy-weighted retrospective cohort study using the Australian and New Zealand Society of Cardiac and Thoracic Surgeons National Cardiac Surgery Database. All adults undergoing cardiac surgery between 2005-2021 across 58 sites were included. The primary outcome was operative mortality.

RESULTS

Of 174,796 eligible patients, 15,360 (8.79%) received PLTS in the absence of FFP and 6,189 (3.54%) patients received FFP in the absence of PLTS. The median cumulative dose was 1 unit of pooled platelets (IQR 1 to 3) and 2 units of FFP (IQR 0 to 4) respectively. After entropy weighting to achieve balanced cohorts, FFP was associated with increased perioperative (Risk Ratio [RR], 1.63; 95% Confidence Interval [CI], 1.40 to 1.91; P<0.001) and 1-year (RR, 1.50; 95% CI, 1.32 to 1.71; P<0.001) mortality. FFP was associated with increased rates of 4-hour chest drain tube output (Adjusted mean difference in ml, 28.37; 95% CI, 19.35 to 37.38; P<0.001), AKI (RR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.27; P = 0.033) and readmission to ICU (RR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.09 to 1.42; P = 0.001).

CONCLUSION

In perioperative bleeding in cardiac surgery patient, platelets are associated with a relative mortality benefit over FFP. This information can be used by clinicians in their choice of procoagulant therapy in this setting.

Real-world long-term survival after non-emergent percutaneous coronary intervention to unprotected left main coronary artery - From the Melbourne Interventional Group (MIG) registry

BACKGROUND

Current evidence suggests that percutaneous coronary intervention for unprotected left main coronary artery disease (LMPCI) in selected patients is a safe alternative to coronary artery bypass grafting. However, real-world long-term survival data is limited.

METHODS

We analyzed 24,644 patients from the MIG (Melbourne Interventional Group) registry between 2005 and 2020. We compared baseline clinical and procedural characteristics, in-hospital and 30-day outcomes, and long-term survival between unprotected LMPCI and non-LMPCI among patients without ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction, cardiogenic shock, or cardiac arrest.

RESULTS

Unprotected LMPCI patients (n = 185) were significantly older (mean age 72.0 vs. 64.6 years, p < 0.001), had higher prevalence of impaired ejection fraction (EF <50 %; 27.3 % vs. 14.9 %, p < 0.001) and lower estimated glomerular filtration rate < 60 ml/min/1.73m2 (40.9 % vs. 21.5 %, p < 0.001), and had greater use of intravascular ultrasound (21 % vs. 1 %, p < 0.001) and drug-eluting stents (p < 0.001). LMPCI was associated with longer hospital stay (4 days vs. 2 days, p < 0.001). There was no significant difference in other in-hospital outcomes, 30-day mortality (0.6 % vs. 0.6 %, p = 0.90), and major adverse cardiac events (1.7 % vs. 3 %, p = 0.28). Although the unadjusted Kaplan-Meier survival to 8 years was significantly less with LMPCI compared to non-LMPCI (p < 0.01), LMPCI was not a predictor of long-term survival up to 8 years after Cox regression analysis (HR 0.67, 95 % CI 0.40-1.13, p = 0.13).

CONCLUSION

In this study, non-emergent unprotected LMPCI was uncommonly performed, and IVUS was underutilized. Despite greater co-morbidities, LMPCI patients had comparable 30-day outcomes to non-LMPCI, and LMPCI was not an independent predictor of long-term mortality.

Variability in Contemporary Heparin Prescription and Activated Clotting Time Monitoring During Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: Call for Up-To-Date Evidence-Based Guidelines

BACKGROUND

Unfractionated heparin (UFH) is the preferred anticoagulant agent in percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) procedures for minimising the risk of thrombotic complications. Because of the narrow therapeutic range of UFH, some society guidelines have advocated the use of the activated clotting time (ACT) test to monitor anticoagulation intensity during PCI to reduce thrombotic and bleeding complications. We aimed to assess the current practice of UFH prescription and its monitoring in Australia and New Zealand (ANZ).

METHOD

We conducted an anonymous voluntary cross-sectional survey of interventional cardiologists (ICs) who were members of the Cardiac Society of Australia and New Zealand in 2022. The survey included 10 questions pertaining to the current practice of anticoagulation during PCI.

RESULTS

Of 430 ICs surveyed, 148 responded (response rate, 34.4%). Most ICs (84.4%) prescribed 70-100 IU/kg of UFH for PCI. Over half of ICs (58.7%) routinely measured ACT during PCI, whereas only 22.2% routinely measured ACT after PCI to guide additional UFH prescription. Among ICs who prescribed additional UFH, approximately half (48%) aimed for ACT ≥250 seconds. Factors that influenced post-PCI UFH prescription included vascular access site and concomitant antiplatelet or anticoagulant therapy.

CONCLUSIONS

The contemporary practice of UFH prescription during PCI and ACT monitoring in ANZ is variable and based on outdated evidence preceding current drug-eluting stents, antiplatelet therapies, and radial-first practice. Current society guideline recommendations lack clarity and agreement, reflecting the quality of the available evidence. Up-to-date clinical trials evaluating UFH prescription and ACT monitoring are needed to optimise clinical outcomes in contemporary PCI procedures.

Sex Differences in Pharmacotherapy and Long-Term Outcomes in Patients With Ischaemic Heart Disease and Comorbid Left Ventricular Dysfunction

BACKGROUND

Left ventricular (LV) dysfunction and ischaemic heart disease (IHD) are common among women. However, women tend to present later and are less likely to receive guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT) compared with men.

METHODS

We analysed prospectively collected data (2005-2018) from a multicentre registry on GDMT 30 days after percutaneous coronary intervention in 13,015 patients with LV ejection fraction <50%. Guideline-directed medical therapy was defined as beta blocker, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin receptor blocker±mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist. Long-term mortality was determined by linkage with the Australian National Death Index.

RESULTS

Women represented 20% (2,634) of the total cohort. Mean age was 65±12 years. Women were on average >5 years, with higher body mass index and higher rates of hypertension, diabetes, renal dysfunction, prior stroke, and rheumatoid arthritis. Guideline-directed medical therapy was similar between sexes (73% vs 72%; p=0.58), although women were less likely to be on an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin receptor blocker (80% vs 82%; p=0.02). Women were less likely to be on statin therapy (p<0.001) or a second antiplatelet agent (p=0.007). Women had higher unadjusted long-term mortality (25% vs 19%; p<0.001); however, there were no differences in long-term mortality between sexes on adjusted analysis (hazard ratio 0.99; 95% confidence interval 0.87-1.14; p=0.94).

CONCLUSIONS

Rates of GDMT for LV dysfunction were high and similar between sexes; however, women were less likely to be on appropriate IHD secondary prevention. The increased unadjusted long-term mortality in women was attenuated in adjusted analysis, which highlights the need for optimisation of baseline risk to improve long-term outcomes of women with IHD and comorbid LV dysfunction.

Relationship between BMI and prognosis of chronic heart failure outpatients in Vietnam: a single-center study

Background

Insufficient data exists regarding the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and the prognosis of chronic heart failure (CHF) specifically within low- and middle-income Asian countries. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of BMI on adverse outcomes of ambulatory patients with CHF in Vietnam.

Methods

Between 2018 and 2020, we prospectively enrolled consecutive outpatients with clinically stable CHF in an observational cohort, single-center study. The participants were stratified according to Asian-specific BMI thresholds. The relationships between BMI and adverse outcomes (all-cause death and all-cause hospitalization) were analyzed by Kaplan-Meier survival curves and Cox proportional-hazards model.

Results

Among 320 participants (age 63.5 ± 13.3 years, 57.9% male), the median BMI was 21.4 kg/m2 (IQR 19.5-23.6), and 10.9% were underweight (BMI <18.50 kg/m2). Over a median follow-up time of 32 months, the cumulative incidence of all-cause mortality and hospitalization were 5.6% and 19.1%, respectively. After multivariable adjustment, underweight patients had a significantly higher risk of all-cause mortality than patients with normal BMI (adjusted hazard ratios = 3.03 [95% CI: 1.07-8.55]). Lower BMI remained significantly associated with a worse prognosis when analyzed as a continuous variable (adjusted hazard ratios = 1.27 [95% CI: 1.03-1.55] per 1 kg/m2 decrease for all-cause mortality). However, BMI was not found to be significantly associated with the risk of all-cause hospitalization (p > 0.05).

Conclusion

In ambulatory patients with CHF in Vietnam, lower BMI, especially underweight status (BMI < 18.5 kg/m2), was associated with a higher risk of all-cause mortality. These findings suggest that BMI should be considered for use in risk classification, and underweight patients should be managed by a team consisting of cardiologists, nutritionists, and geriatricians.

Association Between Triglycerides and Risk of Dementia in Community-Dwelling Older Adults: A Prospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

It has been suggested that higher triglyceride levels were associated with a lower risk of Alzheimer disease. This study aimed to examine the association of triglycerides with dementia and cognition change in community-dwelling older adults.

METHODS

This prospective longitudinal study used data from the Aspirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) randomized trial of adults aged 65 years or older without dementia or previous cardiovascular events at enrollment. The main outcome was incident dementia. Other outcomes included changes in composite cognition and domain-specific cognition (global cognition, memory, language and executive function, and psychomotor speed). The association between baseline triglycerides and dementia risk was estimated using Cox proportional hazard models adjusting for relevant risk factors. Linear mixed models were used to investigate cognitive change. The analysis was repeated in a subcohort of participants with available APOE-ε4 genetic data with additional adjustment for APOE-ε4 carrier status and an external cohort (UK Biobank) with similar selection criteria applied.

RESULTS

This study included 18,294 ASPREE participants and 68,200 UK Biobank participants (mean age: 75.1 and 66.9 years; female: 56.3% and 52.7%; median [interquartile range] triglyceride: 106 [80-142] mg/dL and 139 [101-193] mg/dL), with dementia recorded in 823 and 2,778 individuals over a median follow-up of 6.4 and 12.5 years, respectively. Higher triglyceride levels were associated with lower dementia risk in the entire ASPREE cohort (hazard ratio [HR] with doubling of triglyceride: 0.82, 95% CI 0.72-0.94). Findings were similar in the subcohort of participants with APOE-ε4 genetic data (n = 13,976) and in the UK Biobank cohort (HR was 0.82 and 0.83, respectively, all p ≤ 0.01). Higher triglycerides were also associated with slower decline in composite cognition and memory over time (p ≤ 0.05).

DISCUSSION

Older adults with higher triglyceride levels within the normal to high-normal range had a lower dementia risk and slower cognitive decline over time compared with individuals with lower triglyceride levels. Higher triglyceride levels may be reflective of better overall health and/or lifestyle behaviors that would protect against dementia development. Future studies are warranted to investigate whether specific components within the total circulating pool of plasma triglycerides may promote better cognitive function, with the hope of informing the development of new preventive strategies.

Cardiovascular Disease Risk Scores and Incident Dementia and Cognitive Decline in Older Men and Women

INTRODUCTION

Risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) also increase the risk of dementia. However, whether commonly used CVD risk scores are associated with dementia risk in older adults who do not have a history of CVD, and potential gender differences in this association, remains unclear. The aim of this study was to determine whether CVD risk scores are prospectively associated with cognitive decline and dementia in initially healthy older men and women.

METHODS

A total of19,114 participants from a prospective cohort of individuals aged 65+ years without known CVD or dementia were recruited. The atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk score (ASCVDRS), Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation 2-Older Persons (SCORE2-OP), and the Framingham risk score (FRS) were calculated at baseline. Risk of dementia (according to DSM-IV criteria) and cognitive decline (defined as a >1.5 standard deviation decline in global cognition, episodic memory, psychomotor speed, or verbal fluency from the previous year) were assessed using hazard ratio.

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up of 6.4 years, 850 individuals developed dementia and 4,352 cognitive decline. Men and women in the highest ASCVDRS tertile had a 41% (95% CI 1.08, 1.85) and 45% (1.11, 1.89) increased risk of dementia compared to the lowest tertile, respectively. Likewise, men and women in the highest SCORE2-OP tertile had a 64% (1.24, 2.16) and 60% (1.22, 2.11) increased risk of dementia compared to the lowest tertile, respectively. Findings were similar, but the risk was slightly lesser when examining risk of cognitive decline for both ASCVDRS and SCORE2-OP. However, FRS was only associated with the risk of cognitive decline among women (highest vs. lowest tertiles: 1.13 [1.01-1.26]).

CONCLUSION

These findings suggest the utility of the ASCVDRS and SCORE2-OP in clinical practice, to not only assess future risk of CVD, but also as potential early indicators of cognitive impairment, even in relatively healthy older men and women.

Survival Benefit of Multiple Arterial Revascularization With and Without Supplementary Saphenous Vein Graft

Background It is unknown if the presence of saphenous vein grafting (SVG) adversely affects late survival following coronary surgery with multiple arterial grafting (MAG) versus single arterial grafting. Methods and Results A retrospective, observational, multicenter cohort study from 2001 to 2020 was conducted using the Australian and New Zealand Society of Cardiac and Thoracic Surgeons Database linked to the National Death Index. Patients undergoing primary isolated coronary artery bypass grafting with ≥2 grafts were included, and exclusions were patients aged <18 years, reoperations, concomitant or previous cardiac surgery, and the absence of arterial grafting. Demographics, comorbidities, medication, and operative configurations were propensity score matched between cohorts. The primary outcome was all-cause late death. Of 59 689 eligible patients, 35 113 were MAG (58.8%), and 24 576 were single arterial grafting (41.2%). Of the MAG cohort, 17 055 (48.6%) patients did not receive supplementary SVG (total arterial revascularization). Matching separately generated 22 764 patient pairs for MAG versus single arterial grafting, and 11 137 patient pairs for MAG with total arterial revascularization versus MAG with ≥1 supplementary vein grafts. At a median follow-up duration of 5.0 years postoperatively, the mortality rate was significantly lower for MAG than single arterial grafting (hazard ratio [HR], 0.79 [95% CI, 0.76-0.83]; P<0.001). The stratified MAG analysis found that MAG with total arterial revascularization had a lower risk of late death (HR, 0.85 [95% CI, 0.80-0.91]; P<0.001) compared with MAG with ≥1 supplementary vein grafts. Sensitivity analyses produced consistent outcomes as the primary analysis. Following adjustment for the presence of SVG in the Cox model, the survival advantage of incremental number of arteries was lost. Conclusions Multiple arterial grafting has significantly improved long-term survival compared with single arterial grafting. A further incremental survival benefit exists when no SVG is used.

Compliance-Adjusted Estimates of Aspirin Effects Among Older Persons in the ASPREE Randomized Trial

The Aspirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) Trial recruited 19,114 participants across Australia and the United States during 2010-2014. Participants were randomized to receive either 100 mg of aspirin daily or matching placebo, with disability-free survival as the primary outcome. During a median 4.7 years of follow-up, 37% of participants in the aspirin group permanently ceased taking their study medication and 10% commenced open-label aspirin use. In the placebo group, 35% and 11% ceased using study medication and commenced open-label aspirin use, respectively. In order to estimate compliance-adjusted effects of aspirin, we applied rank-preserving structural failure time models. The results for disability-free survival and most secondary endpoints were similar in intention-to-treat and compliance-adjusted analyses. For major hemorrhage, cancer mortality, and all-cause mortality, compliance-adjusted effects of aspirin indicated greater risks than were seen in intention-to-treat analyses. These findings were robust in a range of sensitivity analyses. In accordance with the original trial analyses, compliance-adjusted results showed an absence of benefit with aspirin for primary prevention in older people, along with an elevated risk of clinically significant bleeding.

Sex-Specific Effects of Blood Pressure Lowering Pharmacotherapy for the Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease: An Individual Participant-Level Data Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Whether the relative effects of blood pressure (BP)-lowering treatment on cardiovascular outcomes differ by sex, particularly when BP is not substantially elevated, has been uncertain.

METHODS

We conducted an individual participant-level data meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials of pharmacological BP lowering. We pooled the data and categorized participants by sex, systolic BP categories in 10-mm Hg increments from <120 to ≥170 mm Hg, and age categories spanning from <55 to ≥85 years. We used fixed-effect one-stage individual participant-level data meta-analyses and applied Cox proportional hazard models, stratified by trial, to analyze the data.

RESULTS

We included data from 51 randomized controlled trials involving 358 636 (42% women) participants. Over 4.2 years of median follow-up, a 5-mm Hg reduction in systolic BP decreased the risk of major cardiovascular events both in women and men (hazard ratio [95% CI], 0.92 [0.89-0.95] for women and 0.90 [0.88-0.93] for men; P for interaction, 1). There was no evidence for heterogeneity of relative treatment effects by sex for the major cardiovascular disease, its components, or across the different baseline BP categories (all P for interaction, ≥0.57). The effects in women and men were consistent across age categories and the types of antihypertensive medications (all P for interaction, ≥0.14).

CONCLUSIONS

The effects of BP reduction were similar in women and men across all BP and age categories at randomization and with no evidence to suggest that drug classes had differing effects by sex. This study does not substantiate sex-based differences in BP-lowering treatment.

Transforming blood pressure control in primary care through a novel remote decision support strategy based on wearable blood pressure monitoring: The NEXTGEN-BP randomized trial protocol

BACKGROUND

Despite high blood pressure being the leading preventable risk factor for death, only 1 in 3 patients achieve target blood pressure control. Key contributors to this problem are clinical inertia and uncertainties in relying on clinic blood pressure measurements to make treatment decisions.

METHODS

The NEXTGEN-BP open-label, multicenter, randomized controlled trial will investigate the efficacy, safety, acceptability and cost-effectiveness of a wearable blood pressure monitor-based care strategy for the treatment of hypertension, compared to usual care, in lowering clinic blood pressure over 12 months. NEXTGEN-BP will enroll 600 adults with high blood pressure, treated with 0 to 2 antihypertensive medications. Participants attending primary care practices in Australia will be randomized 1:1 to the intervention of a wearable-based remote care strategy or to usual care. Participants in the intervention arm will undergo continuous blood pressure monitoring using a wrist-wearable cuffless device (Aktiia, Switzerland) and participate in 2 telehealth consultations with their primary care practitioner (general practitioner [GP]) at months 1 and 2. Antihypertensive medication will be up-titrated by the primary care practitioner at the time of telehealth consults should the percentage of daytime blood pressure at target over the past week be <90%, if clinically tolerated. Participants in the usual care arm will have primary care consultations according to usual practice. The primary outcome is the difference between intervention and control in change in clinic systolic blood pressure from baseline to 12 months. Secondary outcomes will be assessed at month 3 and month 12, and include acceptability to patients and practitioners, cost-effectiveness, safety, medication adherence and patient engagement.

CONCLUSIONS

NEXTGEN-BP will provide evidence for the effectiveness and safety of a new paradigm of wearable cuffless monitoring in the management of high blood pressure in primary care.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ACTRN12622001583730.

The Role of Posterior Wall Isolation in Catheter Ablation for Persistent Atrial Fibrillation and Systolic Heart Failure: A Secondary Analysis of a Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance

Catheter ablation for patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) is associated with improved left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and survival compared with medical therapy. Nonrandomized studies have reported improved success with posterior wall isolation (PWI).

Objective

To determine the impact of pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) with PWI vs PVI alone on outcomes in patients with HFrEF.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This was an ad hoc secondary analysis of the CAPLA trial, a multicenter, prospective, randomized control trial that involved 11 centers in 3 countries (Australia, Canada, and UK). CAPLA featured 338 patients with persistent AF randomized to either PVI plusPWI or PVI alone. This substudy included patients in the original CAPLA study who had symptomatic HFrEF (LVEF <50% and New York Heart Association class ≥II).

Interventions

Pulmonary vein isolation with PWI vs PVI alone.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary end point was freedom from any documented atrial arrhythmia greater than 30 seconds, after a single ablation procedure, without the use of antiarrhythmic drug (AAD) therapy at 12 months.

Results

A total of 98 patients with persistent AF and symptomatic HFrEF were identified (mean [SD] age, 62.1 [9.8] years; 79.5% men; and mean [SD] LVEF at baseline, 34.6% [7.9%]). After 12 months, 58.7% of patients with PVI plus PWI were free from recurrent atrial arrhythmia without the use of AAD therapy vs 61.5% with PVI alone (hazard ratio, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.54-1.91; P = .96). There were no significant differences in freedom from atrial arrhythmia with or without AAD therapy after multiple procedures (PVI plus PWI vs PVI alone, 60.9% vs 65.4%; P = .73) or AF burden (median, 0% in both groups; P = .78). Mean LVEF improved substantially in PVI plus PWI (∆ LVEF, 19.3% [13.0%; P < .01) and PVI alone (18.2% [14.1%; P < .01), with no difference between groups (P = .71). Normalization of LV function occurred in 65.2% of patients in the PVI plus PWI group and 50.0% of patients with PVI alone (P = .13).

Conclusions and Relevance

The results of this study indicate that addition of PWI to PVI did not improve freedom from arrhythmia recurrence or recovery of LVEF in patients with persistent AF and symptomatic HFrEF. Catheter ablation was associated with significant improvements in systolic function, irrespective of ablation strategy used. These results caution against the routine inclusion of PWI in patients with HFrEF undergoing first-time catheter ablation for persistent AF.

Trial Registration

http://anzctr.org.au Identifier: ACTRN12616001436460.

Impact of Preprocedural Diastolic Blood Pressure on Outcomes in Patients Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

BACKGROUND

Recent US guidelines recommend lower blood pressure (BP) targets in hypertension, but aggressive lowering of diastolic BP (DBP) can occur at the expense of myocardial perfusion, particularly in the presence of coronary artery disease. We sought to establish the long-term impact of low DBP on mortality among patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention with well-controlled systolic BP.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 12 965 patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention between 2009 and 2018 from the Melbourne Interventional Group registry who had a preprocedural systolic BP of ≤140 mm Hg. Patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction, cardiogenic shock, and out-of-hospital arrest were excluded. Patients were stratified into 5 groups according to preprocedural DBP: <50, 50 to 59, 60 to 69, 70 to 79, and ≥80 mm Hg. The primary outcome was long-term, all-cause mortality. Mortality data were derived from the Australian National Death Index.

RESULTS

Patients with DBP<50 mm Hg were older with higher rates of diabetes, renal impairment, prior myocardial infarction, left ventricular dysfunction, peripheral and cerebrovascular disease (all P<0.001). Patients with DBP<50 mm Hg had higher 30-day (2.5% versus 0.7% for the other 4 quintiles; P<0.0001) and long-term mortality (median, 3.6 years; follow-up, 29% versus 11%; P<0.0001). Cox-regression analysis revealed that DBP<50 mm Hg was an independent predictor of long-term mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.55 [95% CI, 1.20-2.00]; P=0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with well-controlled systolic BP undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention, low DBP (<50 mm Hg) is an independent predictor of long-term mortality.

Cost-effectiveness of ultra-low-dose quadruple combination therapy for high blood pressure

OBJECTIVE

To determine the cost-effectiveness and cost-utility of a quadpill containing irbesartan 37.5 mg, amlodipine 1.25 mg, indapamide 0.625 mg and bisoprolol 2.5 mg in comparison with irbesartan 150 mg for people with hypertension who are either untreated or receiving monotherapy.

METHODS

We conducted a within-trial and modelled economic evaluation of the Quadruple UltrA-low-dose tReaTment for hypErTension trial. The analysis was preplanned, and medications and health service use captured during the trial. The main outcomes were incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for cost per mm Hg systolic blood pressure (BP) reduction at 3 months, and modelled cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) over a lifetime.

RESULTS

The within-trial analysis showed no clear difference in cost per mm Hg BP lowering between randomised treatments at 3 months ($A10 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) $A -18 to $A37) per mm Hg per person) for quadpill versus monotherapy. The modelled cost-utility over a lifetime projected a mean incremental cost of $A265 (95% UI $A166 to $A357) and a mean 0.02 QALYs gained (95% UI 0.01 to 0.03) per person with quadpill therapy compared with monotherapy. Quadpill therapy was cost-effective in the base case (ICER of $A14 006 per QALY), and the result was sensitive to the quadpill cost in one-way sensitivity analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Quadpill in comparison with monotherapy is comparably cost-effective for short-term BP lowering. In the long-term, quadpill therapy is likely to be cost-effective.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ANZCTRN12616001144404.

Association of a healthy lifestyle with mortality in older people

BACKGROUND

Unhealthy lifestyle behaviours such as smoking, high alcohol consumption, poor diet or low physical activity are associated with morbidity and mortality. Public health guidelines provide recommendations for adherence to these four factors, however, their relationship to the health of older people is less certain.

METHODS

The study involved 11,340 Australian participants (median age 7.39 [Interquartile Range (IQR) 71.7, 77.3]) from the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly study, followed for a median of 6.8 years (IQR: 5.7, 7.9). We investigated whether a point-based lifestyle score based on adherence to guidelines for a healthy diet, physical activity, non-smoking and moderate alcohol consumption was associated with subsequent all-cause and cause-specific mortality.

RESULTS

In multivariable adjusted models, compared to those in the unfavourable lifestyle group, individuals in the moderate lifestyle group (Hazard Ratio (HR) 0.73 [95% CI 0.61, 0.88]) and favourable lifestyle group (HR 0.68 [95% CI 0.56, 0.83]) had lower risk of all-cause mortality. A similar pattern was observed for cardiovascular related mortality and non-cancer/non-cardiovascular related mortality. There was no association of lifestyle with cancer-related mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

In a large cohort of initially healthy older people, reported adherence to a healthy lifestyle is associated with reduced risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Adherence to all four lifestyle factors resulted in the strongest protection.

Developmental origin and local signals cooperate to determine septal astrocyte identity

Astrocyte specification during development is influenced by both intrinsic and extrinsic factors, but the precise contribution of each remains poorly understood. Here we show that septal astrocytes from Nkx2.1 and Zic4 expressing progenitor zones are allocated into non-overlapping domains of the medial (MS) and lateral septal nuclei (LS) respectively. Astrocytes in these areas exhibit distinctive molecular and morphological features tailored to the unique cellular and synaptic circuit environment of each nucleus. Using single-nucleus (sn) RNA sequencing, we trace the developmental trajectories of cells in the septum and find that neurons and astrocytes undergo region and developmental stage-specific local cell-cell interactions. We show that expression of the classic morphogens Sonic hedgehog (Shh) and Fibroblast growth factors (Fgfs) by MS and LS neurons respectively, functions to promote the molecular specification of local astrocytes in each region. Finally, using heterotopic cell transplantation, we show that both morphological and molecular specifications of septal astrocytes are highly dependent on the local microenvironment, regardless of developmental origins. Our data highlights the complex interplay between intrinsic and extrinsic factors shaping astrocyte identities and illustrates the importance of the local environment in determining astrocyte functional specialization.

A developmentally defined population of neurons in the lateral septum controls responses to aversive stimuli

When interacting with their environment, animals must balance exploratory and defensive behavior to evaluate and respond to potential threats. The lateral septum (LS) is a structure in the ventral forebrain that calibrates the magnitude of behavioral responses to stress-related external stimuli, including the regulation of threat avoidance. The complex connectivity between the LS and other parts of the brain, together with its largely unexplored neuronal diversity, makes it difficult to understand how defined LS circuits control specific behaviors. Here, we describe a mouse model in which a population of neurons with a common developmental origin (Nkx2.1-lineage neurons) are absent from the LS. Using a combination of circuit tracing and behavioral analyses, we found that these neurons receive inputs from the perifornical area of the anterior hypothalamus (PeFAH) and are specifically activated in stressful contexts. Mice lacking Nkx2.1-lineage LS neurons display increased exploratory behavior even under stressful conditions. Our study extends the current knowledge about how defined neuronal populations within the LS can evaluate contextual information to select appropriate behavioral responses. This is a necessary step towards understanding the crucial role that the LS plays in neuropsychiatric conditions where defensive behavior is dysregulated, such as anxiety and aggression disorders.

Cost-effectiveness of screening for primary aldosteronism in hypertensive patients in Australia: a Markov modelling analysis

BACKGROUND

Primary aldosteronism affects 3-14% of hypertensive patients in the primary care setting and up to 30% in the hypertensive referral units. Although primary aldosteronism screening is recommended in patients with treatment-resistant hypertension, diagnosis at an earlier stage of disease may prevent end-organ damage and optimize patient outcomes.

METHODS

A Markov model was used to estimate the cost-effectiveness of screening for primary aldosteronism in treatment and disease (cardiovascular disease and stroke) naive hypertensive patients. Within the model, a 40-year-old patient with hypertension went through either the screened or the unscreened arm of the model. They were followed until age 80 or death. In the screening arm, the patient underwent standard diagnostic testing for primary aldosteronism if the screening test, aldosterone-to-renin ratio, was elevated above 70 pmol/l : mU/l. Diagnostic accuracies, transition probabilities and costs were derived from published literature and expert advice. The main outcome of interest was the incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER).

RESULTS

Screening hypertensive patients for primary aldosteronism compared with not screening attained an ICER of AU$35 950.44 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. The results were robust to different sensitivity analyses. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis demonstrated that in 73% of the cases, it was cost-effective to screen at the commonly adopted willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of AU$50 000.

CONCLUSION

The results from this study demonstrated that screening all hypertensive patients for primary aldosteronism from age 40 is cost-effective. The findings argue in favour of screening for primary aldosteronism before the development of severe hypertension in the Australian healthcare setting.

A Retrospective Review of Arthroscopic Shaver Utilization in Adolescent Gynecomastia

Background

This study compares the arthroscopic shaver and liposuction with other established methods for treatment of adolescent gynecomastia.

Methods

Surgical management was via four operative techniques: open excision, open excision/liposuction, arthroscopic shaver/liposuction, or open excision and free nipple graft. Data were collected and compared using independent t tests, linear regression models, and one-way analysis of variance.

Results

Patients were stratified by Rohrich grades I -II (low) (N = 47) or III -IV (high) (N = 13). The groups were similar in age (P = 0.662) with lower BMI in the low-grade group (x̄ = 25.36 ± 2.1) vs. high-grade group (x̄ = 27.62 ± 4.0; P < 0.001). The low-grade group showed no significant difference in operative time across surgical techniques with decreased mean operative time in the high-grade group using the arthroscopic shaver technique (x̄ = 55.8 ± 7.56) compared with open excision (x̄ = 70.83 ± 11.02, P = 0.04), open excision plus liposuction (x̄ = 89.5 ± 24.93, P = 24.93), and open excision plus free nipple graft (x̄ = 81.67 ± 19.11, P = 0.05). There was no significant difference in complication (P = 0.84) or reoperation (P = 0.68) rates across surgical techniques regardless of grade.

Conclusions

These findings suggest that the arthroscopic shaver is safe and effective for treatment of both low- and high-grade gynecomastia in adolescents. The results yielded a similar incidence of complications and reoperation across surgical techniques, and the arthroscopic shaver approach demonstrated a shorter operative time compared with other techniques for high-grade gynecomastia.

Effect of Concomitant Cardiac Arrest on Outcomes in Patients With Acute Coronary Syndrome-Related Cardiogenic Shock

Patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS)-related cardiogenic shock (CS) with or without concomitant CA may have disparate prognoses. We compared clinical characteristics and outcomes of patients with CS secondary to ACS with and without cardiac arrest (CA). Between 2014 and 2020, 1,573 patients with ACS-related CS with or without CA who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention enrolled in a multicenter Australian registry were analyzed. Primary outcome was 30-day major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) (composite of mortality, myocardial infarction, stent thrombosis, target vessel revascularization and stroke). Long-term mortality was obtained through linkage to the National Death Index. Compared with the no-CA group (n = 769, 49%), the CA group (n = 804, 51%) was younger (62 vs 69 years, p <0.001) and had fewer comorbidities. Patients with CA more frequently had ST-elevation myocardial infarction (92% vs 86%), occluded left anterior descending artery (43% vs 33%), and severe preprocedural renal impairment (49% vs 42%) (all p <0.001). CA increased risk of 30-day MACCE by 45% (odds ratio 1.45, 95% confidence interval 1.05 to 2.00, p = 0.024) after adjustment. CA group had higher 30-day MACCE (55% vs 42%, p <0.001) and mortality (52% vs 37%, p <0.001). Three-year survival was lower for CA compared with no-CA patients (43% vs 52%, p <0.001). In Cox regression, CS with CA was associated with a trend toward greater long-term mortality hazard (hazard ratio 1.19, 95% confidence interval 1.00 to 1.41, p = 0.055). In conclusion, concomitant CA among patients with ACS-related CS conferred a particularly heightened short-term risk with a diminishing legacy effect over time for mortality. CS survivors continue to exhibit high sustained long-term mortality hazard regardless of CA status.

Willingness to be tested for a secondary cause of hypertension: a survey of the Australian general community

BACKGROUND

Primary aldosteronism (PA) represents the most common and potentially curable cause of secondary hypertension. However, PA is not commonly screened for, and up to 34% of patients who screen positive do not complete the full diagnostic process. This suggests that the diagnostic process may pose a barrier to patients and may contribute to the under-diagnosis of PA.

AIMS

To evaluate the willingness of the Australian general public to undergo testing for secondary causes of hypertension and identify enablers or barriers to testing from the patients' perspective.

METHODS

An online survey containing questions on knowledge and attitudes towards hypertension, willingness to be tested and enablers/barriers towards testing was distributed to the Australian community.

RESULTS

Of 520 adult respondents (mean age 50.4 years, SD 27.3 years; 28.8% hypertensive; 56.0% female), the majority of non-hypertensive and hypertensive respondents (82.7% vs 70.0%; P = 0.03) were willing to undergo testing for a secondary cause of hypertension that involved blood and urine tests. Greater knowledge of hypertensive risk modification strategies and complications was predictive of willingness to be tested, whereas age, sex, education level, geographic location, socio-economic status and cardiovascular comorbidities were not. The top three barriers to testing included fear of a serious underlying condition, lack of belief in further testing and increased stress associated with further testing.

CONCLUSION

A high proportion of patients are willing to engage in testing for a secondary cause of hypertension. Education about the risks associated with hypertension and the testing process may overcome several barriers to testing.

Characteristics and Outcomes of Young Patients With ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction Without Standard Modifiable Risk Factors

Patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) with no standard modifiable risk factors (SMuRFs: hypertension, diabetes mellitus, hypercholesterolemia, and smoking) have worse short-term mortality than those with SMuRFs. Whether this association extends to younger patients is unclear. A retrospective cohort study was performed of patients aged 18 to 45 years with STEMI at 3 Australian hospitals between 2010 and 2020. Nonatherosclerotic causes of STEMI were excluded. The primary outcome was 30-day all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes included 1 and 2-year mortality. Cox proportional hazards analysis was used. Of 597 patients, the median age was 42 (interquartile range 38 to 44) years, 85.1% were men and 8.4% were SMuRF-less. Patients who are SMuRF-less were >2 times more likely to have cardiac arrest (28.0% vs 12.6%, p = 0.003); require vasopressors (16.0% vs 6.8%, p = 0.018), mechanical support (10.0% vs 2.3%, p = 0.046), or intensive care admission (20.0% vs 5.7%, p <0.001); and have higher rate of left anterior descending artery infarcts than those with SMuRFs (62.0% vs 47.2%, p = 0.045). No significant differences in thrombolysis or percutaneous intervention were observed. Guideline-directed medical therapy at discharge was high (>90%), and not different in the SMuRF-less. 30-day mortality was almost fivefold higher in the SMuRF-less (hazard ratio 4.70, 95% confidence interval 1.66 to 13.35, p = 0.004), remaining significant at 1 and 2 years. In conclusion, young patients who are SMuRF-less have a higher 30-day mortality after STEMI than their counterparts with SMuRFs. This may be partially mediated by higher rates of cardiac arrest and left anterior descending artery territory events. These findings further highlight the need for improved prevention and management of SMuRF-less STEMI.

Paying attention to cardiac surgical risk: An interpretable machine learning approach using an uncertainty-aware attentive neural network

Machine learning (ML) is increasingly applied to predict adverse postoperative outcomes in cardiac surgery. Commonly used ML models fail to translate to clinical practice due to absent model explainability, limited uncertainty quantification, and no flexibility to missing data. We aimed to develop and benchmark a novel ML approach, the uncertainty-aware attention network (UAN), to overcome these common limitations. Two Bayesian uncertainty quantification methods were tested, generalized variational inference (GVI) or a posterior network (PN). The UAN models were compared with an ensemble of XGBoost models and a Bayesian logistic regression model (LR) with imputation. The derivation datasets consisted of 153,932 surgery events from the Australian and New Zealand Society of Cardiac and Thoracic Surgeons (ANZSCTS) Cardiac Surgery Database. An external validation consisted of 7343 surgery events which were extracted from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC) III critical care dataset. The highest performing model on the external validation dataset was a UAN-GVI with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.78 (0.01). Model performance improved on high confidence samples with an AUC of 0.81 (0.01). Confidence calibration for aleatoric uncertainty was excellent for all models. Calibration for epistemic uncertainty was more variable, with an ensemble of XGBoost models performing the best with an AUC of 0.84 (0.08). Epistemic uncertainty was improved using the PN approach, compared to GVI. UAN is able to use an interpretable and flexible deep learning approach to provide estimates of model uncertainty alongside state-of-the-art predictions. The model has been made freely available as an easy-to-use web application demonstrating that by designing uncertainty-aware models with innately explainable predictions deep learning may become more suitable for routine clinical use.

A systematic review on post-discharge venous thromboembolism prophylaxis in patients with COVID-19

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) is associated with venous thromboembolism (VTE), not only during hospitalization but also after discharge, raising concerns about anticoagulant (AC) use for post-discharge COVID-19 patients. We aimed to systematically review the current literature on the possible benefits or risks regarding extended thromboprophylaxis.

MAIN BODY

We searched related databases from December 1, 2019, to October 6, 2022, including studies on the necessity, duration, and selection of the ideal AC regarding extended thromboprophylaxis for post-discharge COVID-19 patients. The screening of the selected databases led to 18 studies and 19 reviews and guidelines. Studies included 52,927 hospitalized COVID-19 patients, with 19.25% receiving extended thromboprophylaxis. VTE events ranging from 0 to 8.19% (median of 0.7%) occurred in a median follow-up of 49.5 days. All included studies and guidelines, except four studies, recommended post-discharge prophylaxis after an individual risk assessment indicating high thrombotic and low bleeding risk. Studies used risk assessment models (RAMs), clinical evaluation, and laboratory data to identify COVID-19 patients with a high risk of VTE. IMPROVE-DD was the most recommended RAM. Direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) and low molecular weight heparins (LMWHs) were the most used AC classes.

CONCLUSIONS

Post-discharge prophylaxis for COVID-19 patients is recommended after an individual assessment. The IMPROVE-DD model can help predict VTE risk. After distinguishing patients who need post-discharge AC therapy, DOACs for 30-35 days and LMWHs for 40-45 days can be the drug of choice. Further studies, particularly the results of the ongoing randomized controlled trials (RCTs), are required. Also, to properly handle such patients, every physician should consider lifestyle modification in addition to pharmacological treatment for post-discharge VTE prophylaxis.

Association between coffee or tea consumption and cardiovascular outcomes in patients with stable coronary artery disease: Analysis from the CLARIFY registry

BACKGROUND

Conflicting data exist on the association between consumption of coffee or tea and cardiovascular outcomes, and few focus on patients with established coronary artery disease.

AIM

To describe the association between coffee or tea consumption and cardiovascular outcomes in patients with stable coronary artery disease, using an extensive contemporary international registry, allowing the identification of multiple potential confounders.

METHODS

The Prospective Observational Longitudinal Registry of Patients With Stable Coronary Artery Disease (CLARIFY) registry enrolled in 2009 and 2010 in 45 countries, with a 5-year follow-up. Patients were categorized according to daily consumption of coffee or tea, and were compared with those declaring neither. The primary composite outcome of myocardial infarction, stroke or cardiovascular death was analysed at 5years, as well as all-cause mortality. Sensitivity analyses were performed with a multivariable model.

RESULTS

A total of 15,459 and 10,029 patients declared coffee or tea consumption, respectively. At 5years, after full adjustment, no association was found between coffee consumption and the primary outcome: hazard ratio 1.04 (95% confidence interval 0.89-1.21) for 1 cup; 0.94 (0.82-1.08) for 2-3 cups; and 1.04 (0.86-1.27) for ≥4 cups (P=0.51). Drinking tea was not associated with a different incidence of the primary outcome before or after adjustment, with fully adjusted hazard ratios of 1.08 (95% confidence interval 0.84-1.38) for 1 cup, 1.12 (0.96-1.31) for 2-3 cups and 0.95 (0.79-1.14) for ≥4 cups (P=0.30). After full adjustment, neither coffee nor tea drinking was associated with all-cause mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

In outpatients with stable coronary artery disease, there was no association between coffee or tea consumption and ischaemic outcomes or all-cause mortality.

Outcomes of thrombus aspiration during primary percutaneous coronary intervention for ST-elevation myocardial infarction

BACKGROUND

Previous large multi-centre randomised controlled trials have not provided clear benefit with routine intracoronary thrombus aspiration (TA) as an adjunct to primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI).

AIM

To determine whether there is a difference in outcomes with the use of manual TA prior to PCI, compared with PCI alone in a cohort of patients with STEMI.

METHODS

We analysed data from 6270 consecutive patients undergoing primary PCI for STEMI prospectively enrolled in the Melbourne Interventional Group registry between 2007 and 2018. Multivariable analysis was performed to determine predictors of 30-day major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) and long-term mortality.

RESULTS

We compared 1621 (26%) patients undergoing primary PCI with TA to 4649 (74%) patients undergoing PCI alone. Male gender (81% vs 78%; P < 0.01), younger age (61 vs 63 years; P = 0.03), GP-IIb/IIIa use (76% vs 58%, P < 0.01), and current smoking (40% vs 36%; P < 0.01) were more common in the TA group. TA was more likely to be used in patients with complex lesions (83% vs 66%; P < 0.01) with TIMI 0 flow (77% vs 56%; P < 0.01). No significant difference in post-procedural TIMI flow, stroke, 30-day mortality, or long-term mortality were identified. Multivariable analysis demonstrated a reduction in 30-day MACCE (hazard ratio (HR) 0.75; confidence interval (CI) 0.63-0.89; P < 0.01) in the TA group, but was not associated with long-term mortality (HR 0.98; CI 0.85-1.1; P = 0.73).

CONCLUSION

The use of TA in patients undergoing primary PCI for STEMI was not associated with improved short or long-term mortality when compared with PCI alone.

Cognitive trajectories and incident dementia after a cardiovascular event in older adults

INTRODUCTION

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a recognized risk factor for dementia. Here we determined the extent to which an incident CVD event modifies the trajectory of cognitive function and risk of dementia.

METHODS

19,114 adults (65+) without CVD or dementia were followed prospectively over 9 years. Incident CVD (fatal coronary heart disease, nonfatal myocardial infarction [MI], stroke, hospitalization for heart failure) and dementia (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition criteria) were adjudicated by experts.

RESULTS

Nine hundred twenty-two participants had incident CVD, and 44 developed dementia after CVD (4.9% vs. 4.4% for participants without CVD). Following a CVD event there was a short-term drop in processing speed (-1.97, 95% confidence interval [CI]: -2.57 to -1.41), but there was no significant association with longer-term processing speed. In contrast, faster declines in trajectories of global function (-0.56, 95% CI: -0.76 to -0.36), episodic memory (-0.10, 95% CI: -0.16 to -0.04), and verbal fluency (-0.19, 95% CI: -0.30 to -0.01) were observed.

DISCUSSION

Findings highlight the importance of monitoring cognition after a CVD event.

Tree-based survival analysis improves mortality prediction in cardiac surgery

Objectives

Machine learning (ML) classification tools are known to accurately predict many cardiac surgical outcomes. A novel approach, ML-based survival analysis, remains unstudied for predicting mortality after cardiac surgery. We aimed to benchmark performance, as measured by the concordance index (C-index), of tree-based survival models against Cox proportional hazards (CPH) modeling and explore risk factors using the best-performing model.

Methods

144,536 patients with 147,301 surgery events from the Australian and New Zealand Society of Cardiac and Thoracic Surgeons (ANZSCTS) national database were used to train and validate models. Univariate analysis was performed using Student's T-test for continuous variables, Chi-squared test for categorical variables, and stratified Kaplan-Meier estimation of the survival function. Three ML models were tested, a decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), and gradient boosting machine (GBM). Hyperparameter tuning was performed using a Bayesian search strategy. Performance was assessed using 2-fold cross-validation repeated 5 times.

Results

The highest performing model was the GBM with a C-index of 0.803 (0.002), followed by RF with 0.791 (0.003), DT with 0.729 (0.014), and finally CPH with 0.596 (0.042). The 5 most predictive features were age, type of procedure, length of hospital stay, drain output in the first 4 h (ml), and inotrope use greater than 4 h postoperatively.

Conclusion

Tree-based learning for survival analysis is a non-parametric and performant alternative to CPH modeling. GBMs offer interpretable modeling of non-linear relationships, promising to expose the most relevant risk factors and uncover new questions to guide future research.

Low-Dose Aspirin and the Risk of Stroke and Intracerebral Bleeding in Healthy Older People: Secondary Analysis of a Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance

Low-dose aspirin has been widely used for primary and secondary prevention of stroke. The balance between potential reduction of ischemic stroke events and increased intracranial bleeding has not been established in older individuals.

Objective

To establish the risks of ischemic stroke and intracranial bleeding among healthy older people receiving daily low-dose aspirin.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This secondary analysis of the Aspirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of daily low-dose aspirin was conducted among community-dwelling people living in Australia or the US. Participants were older adults free of symptomatic cardiovascular disease. Recruitment took place between 2010 and 2014, and participants were followed up for a median (IQR) of 4.7 (3.6-5.7) years. This analysis was completed from August 2021 to March 2023.

Interventions

Daily 100-mg enteric-coated aspirin or matching placebo.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Stroke and stroke etiology were predetermined secondary outcomes and are presented with a focus on prevention of initial stroke or intracranial bleeding event. Outcomes were assessed by review of medical records.

Results

Among 19 114 older adults (10 782 females [56.4%]; median [IQR] age, 74 [71.6-77.7] years), 9525 individuals received aspirin and 9589 individuals received placebo. Aspirin did not produce a statistically significant reduction in the incidence of ischemic stroke (hazard ratio [HR], 0.89; 95% CI, 0.71-1.11). However, a statistically significant increase in intracranial bleeding was observed among individuals assigned to aspirin (108 individuals [1.1%]) compared with those receiving placebo (79 individuals [0.8%]; HR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.03-1.84). This occurred by an increase in a combination of subdural, extradural, and subarachnoid bleeding with aspirin compared with placebo (59 individuals [0.6%] vs 41 individuals [0.4%]; HR, 1.45; 95% CI, 0.98-2.16). Hemorrhagic stroke was recorded in 49 individuals (0.5%) assigned to aspirin compared with 37 individuals (0.4%) in the placebo group (HR, 1.33; 95% CI, 0.87-2.04).

Conclusions and Relevance

This study found a significant increase in intracranial bleeding with daily low-dose aspirin but no significant reduction of ischemic stroke. These findings may have particular relevance to older individuals prone to developing intracranial bleeding after head trauma.

Trial Registration

ISRCTN.org Identifier: ISRCTN83772183.

Health Characteristics and Aspirin Use in Participants at the Baseline of the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly - eXTension (ASPREE-XT) Observational Study

BACKGROUND

Aspirin as a primary preventative in healthy older adults did not prolong disability-free survival in the ASPREE randomized trial. Observational studies following randomized trials allow assessment of benefits and harms which may not appear during the trial. We describe health characteristics, physical function, and aspirin use in the ASPREE-eXTension (ASPREE-XT) observational study cohort.

METHODS

Descriptive statistics compared health characteristics of those consented to ASPREE-XT at their first post-trial baseline (XT01) to corresponding ASPREE baseline values, and to those not consented. Likelihood of an indication for aspirin was assessed in participants reporting aspirin use at XT01.

RESULTS

16,317 (93%) of the remaining and eligible 17,546 ASPREE participants were consented into ASPREE-XT; 14,894 completed XT01. Mean participant age had increased from 74.9 to 80.6 years. Overall health and physical function declined from the original ASPREE baseline; more participants were living alone, there was higher prevalence of chronic kidney disease, diabetes, and frailty, grip strength was lower and gait speed slower. Those not consented into ASPREE-XT were slightly older, and had lower cognitive scores and higher prevalence of age-related conditions than those who continued. 1015/11,717 (8.7%) participants without an apparent indication for aspirin reported using aspirin at XT01.

CONCLUSIONS

The ASPREE-XT cohort was slightly less healthy at the XT01 visit than at ASPREE trial initiation, and rates of aspirin use without indication were similar to ASPREE baseline. Participants will be followed long-term to investigate aspirin's potential legacy towards dementia and cancer prevention and explore determinants of healthy aging.