Performance and Head-to-Head Comparison of Three Clinical Models to Predict Occurrence of Postthrombotic Syndrome: A Validation Study

OBJECTIVE

 The SOX-PTS, Amin, and Méan models are three different clinical prediction scores stratifying the risk for postthrombotic syndrome (PTS) development in patients with acute deep vein thrombosis (DVT) of the lower limbs. Herein, we aimed to assess and compare these scores in the same cohort of patients.

METHODS

 We retrospectively applied the three scores in a cohort of 181 patients (196 limbs) who participated in the SAVER pilot trial for an acute DVT. Patients were stratified into PTS risk groups using positivity thresholds for high-risk patients as proposed in the derivation studies. All patients were assessed for PTS 6 months after index DVT using the Villalta scale. We calculated the predictive accuracy for PTS and area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve for each model.

RESULTS

 The Méan model was the most sensitive (sensitivity 87.7%; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 77.2-94.5) with the highest negative predictive value (87.5%; 95% CI: 76.8-94.4) for PTS. The SOX-PTS was the most specific score (specificity 97.5%; 95% CI: 92.7-99.5) with the highest positive predictive value (72.7%; 95% CI: 39.0-94.0). The SOX-PTS and Méan models performed well for PTS prediction (AUROC: 0.72; 95% CI: 0.65-0.80 and 0.74; 95% CI: 0.67-0.82), whereas the Amin model did not (AUROC: 0.58; 95% CI: 0.49-0.67).

CONCLUSION

 Our data support that the SOX-PTS and Méan models have good accuracy to stratify the risk for PTS.

Recurrence after stopping anticoagulants in women with combined oral contraceptive-associated venous thromboembolism: A systematic review and meta-analysis

The risk of recurrence after discontinuation of anticoagulation for a combined oral contraceptive (COC)-associated venous thromboembolism (VTE) is unclear. Therefore, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to estimate the incidence of recurrent VTE among women with COC-associated VTE, unprovoked VTE and to compare the incidence of recurrent VTE between the two groups. The Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Embase Classic +Embase and Medline ALL to July 2020 and citations from included studies were searched. Randomized controlled trials, prospective cohort studies and meta-analyses of these study types were selected. The analysis was conducted by random-effects model. Nineteen studies were identified including 1537 women [5828 person-years (PY)] with COC-associated VTE and 1974 women (7798 PY) with unprovoked VTE. Studies were at low risk of bias. The incidence rate of VTE recurrence was 1.22/100 PY [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.92-1.62, I²  = 6%] in women with COC-associated VTE, 3.89/100 PY (95% CI 2.93-5.17, I²  = 74%) in women with unprovoked VTE and the unadjusted incidence rate ratio was 0.34 (95% CI 0.26-0.46, I²  = 3%). The recurrence risk in women after COC-associated VTE is low and lower than after an unprovoked VTE.

Statins for venous event reduction in patients with venous thromboembolism: A multicenter randomized controlled pilot trial assessing feasibility

BACKGROUND

Statins may reduce the risk for recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE); however, no randomized trials have explored this hypothesis. We performed a pilot randomized trial to determine feasibility of recruitment for a larger trial of secondary VTE prevention with rosuvastatin.

METHODS

Patients with a newly diagnosed symptomatic proximal deep vein thrombosis and/or pulmonary embolism, receiving standard anticoagulation, were randomly allocated to adjuvant rosuvastatin 20 mg once daily for 180 days or no rosuvastatin for 6 months.

RESULTS

Between November 2016 and December 2019, 3391 patients were assessed for eligibility in six centers. Of these patients, 1347 (39.7%) were eligible and approached for participation in the trial and 312 (23.1%) were randomized. The mean rate of randomization was 8.2 ± 4.3 patients per month. During follow-up, five recurrent VTE events were observed, three (1.9%) in the rosuvastatin group (two pulmonary embolism, one deep vein thrombosis), and two (1.3%) in the control group (two pulmonary embolism; P = 0.68). One major arterial event occurred in the rosuvastatin arm and none in the control arm (0.6% vs. 0%, P = 0.50).

CONCLUSION

This pilot trial supports the feasibility of a larger scale randomized controlled trial to determine the efficacy of adjuvant rosuvastatin for the secondary prevention of VTE.

Long-term risk of major bleeding after discontinuing anticoagulation for unprovoked venous thromboembolism: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The long-term risk of major bleeding after discontinuing anticoagulant therapy for a first unprovoked venous thromboembolism (VTE) is uncertain.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the incidence of major bleeding up to 5 years after discontinuing anticoagulation for a first unprovoked VTE.

METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane CENTRAL (from inception to January 2021) to identify relevant randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and prospective cohort studies reporting major bleeding after discontinuing anticoagulation in patients with a first unprovoked VTE who had completed ≥3 months of initial treatment. Unpublished data on major bleeding events and person-years were obtained from authors of included studies to calculate study-level incidence rates. Random-effects meta-analysis was used to pool results across studies.

RESULTS

Of 1123 records identified by the search, 20 studies (17 RCTs) and 8740 patients were included in the analysis. During 13 011 person-years of follow-up after discontinuing anticoagulation, the pooled incidence of major bleeding (n=41) and fatal bleeding (n=7) per 100 person-years was 0.35 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.20-0.54) and 0.09 (95% CI, 0.05-0.15). The 5-year cumulative incidence of major bleeding was of 1.0% (95% CI, 0.4%-2.4%). The case-fatality rate of major bleeding after discontinuing anticoagulation was 19.9% (95% CI, 10.6%-31.1%).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with a first unprovoked VTE have a non-trivial risk of major bleeding once anticoagulants are discontinued. Estimates from this study can help clinicians counsel patients about the incremental risk of major bleeding with extended anticoagulation to guide decision making about treatment duration for unprovoked VTE.

Long-term risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism among patients receiving extended oral anticoagulant therapy for first unprovoked venous thromboembolism: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The long-term risk for recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE) during extended anticoagulation for a first unprovoked VTE is uncertain.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the incidence of recurrent VTE during extended anticoagulation of up to 5 years in patients with a first unprovoked VTE.

METHODS

MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane CENTRAL were searched to identify randomized trials and prospective cohort studies reporting recurrent VTE among patients with a first unprovoked VTE who were to receive anticoagulation for a minimum of six additional months after completing ≥3 months of initial treatment. Unpublished data on number of recurrent VTE and person-years, obtained from authors of included studies, were used to calculate study-level incidence rate, and random-effects meta-analysis was used to pool results.

RESULTS

Twenty-six studies and 15 603 patients were included in the analysis. During 11 631 person-years of follow-up, the incidence of recurrent VTE and fatal pulmonary embolism per 100 person-years was 1.41 (95% CI, 1.03-1.84) and 0.09 (0.04-0.16), with 5-year cumulative incidences of 7.1% (3.0%-13.2%) and 1.2% (0.4%-4.6%), respectively. The incidence of recurrent VTE was 1.08 (95% CI, 0.77-1.44) with direct oral anticoagulants and 1.55 (1.01-2.20) with vitamin K antagonists. The case-fatality rate of recurrent VTE was 4.9% (95% CI, 2.2%-8.7%).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with a first unprovoked VTE, the long-term risk of recurrent VTE during extended anticoagulation is low but not negligible. Thus, clinicians and patients should be aware of this risk and take appropriate and timely action in case of suspicion of recurrent VTE. Estimates from this study can be used to advise patients on what to expect while receiving extended anticoagulation, and estimate the net clinical benefit of extended treatment to guide long-term management of unprovoked VTE.

Long-Term Risk for Major Bleeding During Extended Oral Anticoagulant Therapy for First Unprovoked Venous Thromboembolism : A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The long-term risk for major bleeding in patients receiving extended (beyond the initial 3 to 6 months) anticoagulant therapy for a first unprovoked venous thromboembolism (VTE) is uncertain.

PURPOSE

To determine the incidence of major bleeding during extended anticoagulation of up to 5 years among patients with a first unprovoked VTE, overall, and in clinically important subgroups.

DATA SOURCES

MEDLINE, Embase, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials from inception to 23 July 2021.

STUDY SELECTION

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and prospective cohort studies reporting major bleeding among patients with a first unprovoked VTE who were to receive oral anticoagulation for a minimum of 6 additional months after completing at least 3 months of initial anticoagulant treatment.

DATA EXTRACTION

Two reviewers independently abstracted data and assessed study quality. Unpublished data required for analyses were obtained from authors of included studies.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Among the 14 RCTs and 13 cohort studies included in the analysis, 9982 patients received a vitamin K antagonist (VKA) and 7220 received a direct oral anticoagulant (DOAC). The incidence of major bleeding per 100 person-years was 1.74 events (95% CI, 1.34 to 2.20 events) with VKAs and 1.12 events (CI, 0.72 to 1.62 events) with DOACs. The 5-year cumulative incidence of major bleeding with VKAs was 6.3% (CI, 3.6% to 10.0%). Among patients receiving either a VKA or a DOAC, the incidence of major bleeding was statistically significantly higher among those who were older than 65 years or had creatinine clearance less than 50 mL/min, a history of bleeding, concomitant use of antiplatelet therapy, or a hemoglobin level less than 100 g/L. The case-fatality rate of major bleeding was 8.3% (CI, 5.1% to 12.2%) with VKAs and 9.7% (CI, 3.2% to 19.2%) with DOACs.

LIMITATION

Data were insufficient to estimate incidence of major bleeding beyond 1 year of extended anticoagulation with DOACs.

CONCLUSION

In patients with a first unprovoked VTE, the long-term risks and consequences of anticoagulant-related major bleeding are considerable. This information will help inform patient prognosis and guide decision making about treatment duration for unprovoked VTE.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

Canadian Institutes of Health Research. (PROSPERO: CRD42019128597).

Antithrombotic Therapy for VTE Disease: Second Update of the CHEST Guideline and Expert Panel Report - Executive Summary

BACKGROUND

This is the second update to the 9^th edition of these guidelines. We provide recommendations on 17 PICO (Patients, Interventions, Comparators, Outcomes) questions, four of which have not been addressed previously.

METHODS

We generate strong and weak recommendations based on high, moderate, and low-certainty evidence, using GRADE methodology.

RESULTS

The panel generated 29 guidance statements, 13 of which are graded as strong recommendations, covering aspects of antithrombotic management of venous thromboembolism from initial management through secondary prevention and risk reduction of post-thrombotic syndrome. Four new guidance statements are added that did not appear in the 9^th edition (2012) or first update (2016). Eight statements have been substantially modified from the first update.

CONCLUSION

New evidence has emerged since 2016 which further informs the standard of care for patients with venous thromboembolism. Substantial uncertainty remains regarding important management questions, particularly in limited disease and special patient populations.

Which older emergency patients are at risk of intracranial bleeding after a fall? A protocol to derive a clinical decision rule for the emergency department

INTRODUCTION

Falling on level ground is now the most common cause of traumatic intracranial bleeding worldwide. Older adults frequently present to the emergency department (ED) after falling. It can be challenging for clinicians to determine who requires brain imaging to rule out traumatic intracranial bleeding, and often head injury decision rules do not apply to older adults who fall. The goal of our study is to derive a clinical decision rule, which will identify older adults who present to the ED after a fall who do not have clinically important intracranial bleeding.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This is a prospective cohort study enrolling patients aged 65 years or older, who present to the ED of 11 hospitals in Canada and the USA within 48 hours of having a fall. Patients are included if they fall on level ground, off a chair, toilet seat or out of bed. The primary outcome is the diagnosis of clinically important intracranial bleeding within 42 days of the index ED visit. An independent adjudication committee will determine the primary outcome, blinded to all other data. We are collecting data on 17 potential predictor variables. The treating physician completes a study data form at the time of initial assessment, prior to brain imaging. Data extraction is supplemented by an independent, structured electronic medical record review. We will perform binary recursive partitioning using Classification and Regression Trees to derive a clinical decision rule.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study was initially approved by the Hamilton Integrated Research Ethics Committee and subsequently approved by the research ethics boards governing all participating sites. We will disseminate our results by journal publication, presentation at international meetings and social media.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT03745755.

A simplified decision rule to rule out deep vein thrombosis using clinical assessment and D-dimer

BACKGROUND

Current clinical decision rules to exclude deep vein thrombosis (DVT) are underused partly because of their complexity. A simplified rule that can be easily applied would be more appealing to use in clinical practice.

METHODS

We used individual patient data from prospective diagnostic studies of patients suspected of DVT to develop a new clinical decision rule. The primary outcome was presence of DVT either at initial testing or during follow-up. DVT was considered safely excluded if the upper 95% confidence interval (CI) of DVT prevalence was <2%.

RESULTS

Four studies and 3368 patients were eligible for this analysis. Overall prevalence of DVT was 17%. In addition to D-dimer, two variables, calf swelling and DVT as the most likely diagnosis, are included in the new rule. Based on these two variables, two clinical pretest probability (CPTP) groups were defined; low (none of the two items present) and high (at least one of the items present). DVT can be safely excluded in patients with low CPTP with a D-dimer <500 ng/mL (prevalence = 0.1%; 95% CI, 0.0-0.8), low CPTP with a D-dimer between 500 ng/ml and 1000 ng/ml (prevalence = 0.3%; 95% CI, 0.0-1.7), and D-dimer <500 ng/ml in patients with high CPTP (prevalence = 0.3%; 95% CI, 0.0-1.0).

CONCLUSIONS

The combination of D-dimer and Wells items resulted in a simple clinical decision rule with 3 items. The results suggest that the rule can safely exclude DVT. Prospective validation is required.

Postoperative low molecular weight heparin bridging treatment for patients at high risk of arterial thromboembolism (PERIOP2): double blind randomised controlled trial

OBJECTIVE

To determine the efficacy and safety of dalteparin postoperative bridging treatment versus placebo for patients with atrial fibrillation or mechanical heart valves when warfarin is temporarily interrupted for a planned procedure.

DESIGN

Prospective, double blind, randomised controlled trial.

SETTING

10 thrombosis research sites in Canada and India between February 2007 and March 2016.

PARTICIPANTS

1471 patients aged 18 years or older with atrial fibrillation or mechanical heart valves who required temporary interruption of warfarin for a procedure.

INTERVENTION

Random assignment to dalteparin (n=821; one patient withdrew consent immediately after randomisation) or placebo (n=650) after the procedure.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Major thromboembolism (stroke, transient ischaemic attack, proximal deep vein thrombosis, pulmonary embolism, myocardial infarction, peripheral embolism, or vascular death) and major bleeding according to the International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis criteria within 90 days of the procedure.

RESULTS

The rate of major thromboembolism within 90 days was 1.2% (eight events in 650 patients) for placebo and 1.0% (eight events in 820 patients) for dalteparin (P=0.64, risk difference -0.3%, 95% confidence interval -1.3 to 0.8). The rate of major bleeding was 2.0% (13 events in 650 patients) for placebo and 1.3% (11 events in 820 patients) for dalteparin (P=0.32, risk difference -0.7, 95% confidence interval -2.0 to 0.7). The results were consistent for the atrial fibrillation and mechanical heart valves groups.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with atrial fibrillation or mechanical heart valves who had warfarin interrupted for a procedure, no significant benefit was found for postoperative dalteparin bridging to prevent major thromboembolism.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00432796.

Physician choices in pulmonary embolism testing

BACKGROUND:

Evidence-based guidelines advise excluding pulmonary embolism (PE) diagnosis using d-dimer in patients with a lower probability of PE. Emergency physicians frequently order computed tomography (CT) pulmonary angiography without d-dimer testing or when d-dimer is negative, which exposes patients to more risk than benefit. Our objective was to develop a conceptual framework explaining emergency physicians’ test choices for PE.

METHODS:

We conducted a qualitative study using in-depth interviews of emergency physicians in Canada. A nonmedical researcher conducted in-person interviews. Participants described how they would test simulated patients with symptoms of possible PE, answered a knowledge test and were interviewed on barriers to using evidence-based PE tests.

RESULTS:

We interviewed 63 emergency physicians from 9 hospitals in 5 cities, across 3 provinces. We identified 8 domains: anxiety with PE, barriers to using the evidence (time, knowledge and patient), divergent views on evidence-based PE testing, inherent Wells score problems, the drive to obtain CT rather than to diagnose PE, gestalt estimation artificially inflating PE probability, subjective reasoning and cognitive biases supporting deviation from evidence-based tests and use of evidence-based testing to rule out PE in patients who are very unlikely to have PE. Choices for PE testing were influenced by the disease, environment, test qualities, physician and probability of PE.

INTERPRETATION:

Analysis of structured interviews with emergency physicians provided a conceptual framework to explain how these physicians use tests for suspected PE. The data suggest 8 domains to address when implementing an evidence-based protocol to investigate PE.

Performance of two clinical scales to assess quality of life in patients with post-thrombotic syndrome

OBJECTIVE

We directly compared the Villalta scale and the Venous Clinical Severity Score (VCSS) to determine which of the two measures would be better at capturing clinically important cases of post-thrombotic syndrome (PTS) and PTS severity compared with patient-reported quality of life (QOL) scores.

METHODS

We performed a secondary analysis of the ATTRACT (acute venous thrombosis: thrombus removal with adjunctive catheter-directed thrombolysis) trial study population. We calculated the correlations of the Villalta scores and VCSSs with QOL scores (short-form 36-item health survey [SF-36] physical component summary [PCS] and mental component summary [MCS]; and VEINES [venous insufficiency epidemiological and economic study]-QOL/symptom [VEINES-QOL/Sym] questionnaire) at each study visit (6, 12, 18, and 24 months of follow-up). The correlation of the random intercept (mean scores) and random slope (rate of change of the scores) among the Villalta scores, VCSS, and VEINES-QOL/Sym scores was assessed using a multivariate longitudinal model.

RESULTS

The median correlation between Villalta scores and VCSSs was 0.72. The median correlation between the Villalta scores and VEINES-QOL and VEINES-Sym scores at all follow-up visits was -0.68 and -0.71, respectively. The median correlation between the Villalta scores and SF-36 PCS and MCS scores was -0.51 and -0.31, respectively. For the VCSSs, the median correlation with the VEINES-QOL and VEINES-Sym scores at all follow-up visits was -0.39 and -0.41, respectively. The median correlation between the VCSSs and SF-36 PCS and MCS scores was -0.32 and -0.13, respectively. The correlations between the random effects in the multivariate longitudinal models showed a similar pattern. The effect of covariate adjustment by age, sex, and body mass index was minor.

CONCLUSIONS

The Villalta scores and VCSSs correlated strongly. The Villalta scale showed a substantially greater correlation with venous disease-specific and general QOL scores compared with the correlation with the VCSS. Our findings suggest that when a single scale is used to assess for clinically meaningful PTS, the Villalta scale will better capture the effects of PTS on patient-reported QOL.

Rivaroxaban Compared to Placebo for the Treatment of Leg Superficial Vein Thrombosis: A Randomized Trial

The role of rivaroxaban in the treatment of leg superficial venous thrombosis (SVT) is uncertain. This article aims to determine if rivaroxaban is an effective and safe treatment for leg SVT. Patients with symptomatic leg SVT of at least 5 cm length were randomized to 45 days of rivaroxaban 10 mg daily or to placebo, and followed for a total of 90 days. Treatment failure (required a nonstudy anticoagulant; had proximal deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism; or had surgery for SVT) at 90 days was the primary efficacy outcome. Secondary efficacy outcomes included leg pain severity, and venous disease-specific and general health-related quality of life over 90 days. Major bleeding at 90 days was the primary safety outcome. Poor enrollment led to the trial being stopped after 85 of the planned 600 patients were randomized to rivaroxaban (n = 43) or placebo (n = 42). One rivaroxaban and five placebo patients had a treatment failure by 90 days (absolute risk reduction = 9.0%, 95% confidence interval: -22 to 5.9%). Leg pain improvement did not differ at 7 (p = 0.16) or 45 days (p = 0.89), but was greater with rivaroxaban at 90 days (p = 0.011). There was no difference in venous disease-specific (p = 0.99) or general health-related (p = 0.37) quality of life over 45 days. There were no major bleeds or deaths in either group. There were no identifiable differences in efficacy or safety between rivaroxaban and placebo in patients with symptomatic SVT but comparisons were undermined by a much smaller than planned sample size (NCT1499953).

Correlation between Post-Procedure Residual Thrombus and Clinical Outcome in Deep Vein Thrombosis Patients Receiving Pharmacomechanical Thrombolysis in a Multicenter Randomized Trial

PURPOSE

To evaluate relationships between immediate venographic results and clinical outcomes of pharmacomechanical catheter-directed thrombolysis (PCDT).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Venograms from 317 patients with acute proximal deep vein thrombosis (DVT) who received PCDT in a multicenter randomized trial were reviewed. Quantitative thrombus resolution was assessed by independent readers using a modified Marder scale. The physician operators recorded their visual assessments of thrombus regression and venous flow. These immediate post-procedure results were correlated with patient outcomes at 1, 12, and 24 months.

RESULTS

PCDT produced substantial thrombus removal (P < .001 for pre-PCDT vs. post-PCDT thrombus scores in all segments). At procedure end, spontaneous venous flow was present in 99% of iliofemoral venous segments and in 89% of femoral-popliteal venous segments. For the overall proximal DVT population, and for the femoral-popliteal DVT subgroup, post-PCDT thrombus volume did not correlate with 1-month or 24-month outcomes. For the iliofemoral DVT subgroup, over 1 and 24 months, symptom severity scores were higher (worse), and venous disease-specific quality of life (QOL) scores were lower (worse) in patients with greater post-PCDT thrombus volume, with the difference reaching statistical significance for the 24-month Villalta post-thrombotic syndrome (PTS) severity score (P = .0098). Post-PCDT thrombus volume did not correlate with 12-month valvular reflux.

CONCLUSIONS

PCDT successfully removes thrombus in acute proximal DVT. However, the residual thrombus burden at procedure end does not correlate with the occurrence of PTS during the subsequent 24 months. In iliofemoral DVT, lower residual thrombus burden correlates with reduced PTS severity and possibly also with improved venous QOL and fewer early symptoms.

Diagnosing deep vein thrombosis in cancer patients with suspected symptoms: An individual participant data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

A previous individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis showed that the Wells rule and D-dimer testing cannot exclude suspected deep vein thrombosis (DVT) in cancer patients.

OBJECTIVES

To explore reasons for this reduced diagnostic accuracy and to optimize the diagnostic pathway for cancer patients suspected of DVT.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Using IPD from 13 studies in patients with suspected DVT, DVT prevalence and the predictive value of the Wells rule items and D-dimer testing were compared between patients with and without cancer. Next, we developed a prediction model with five variables selected from all available diagnostic predictors.

RESULTS

Among the 10 002 suspected DVT patients, there were 834 patients with cancer. The median prevalence of DVT in these patients with cancer was 37.5% (interquartile range [IQR], 30.8-45.5), whereas it was 15.1% (IQR, 11.5-16.7) in patients without cancer. Diagnostic performance of individual Wells rule items and D-dimer testing was similar across patients with and without cancer, except "immobility" and "history of DVT." The newly developed rule showed a pooled c-statistic 0.80 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.75-0.83) and good calibration. However, using this model, still only 4.3% (95% CI, 3.0-5.7) of the suspected patients with cancer could be identified with a predicted DVT posttest probability of <2%.

CONCLUSIONS

Likely because of the high prevalence of DVT, clinical models followed by D-dimer testing fail to rule out DVT efficiently in cancer patients suspected of DVT. Direct referral for compression ultrasonography appears to be the preferred approach for diagnosis of suspected DVT in cancer patients.

Bleeding Independently associated with Mortality after noncardiac Surgery (BIMS): an international prospective cohort study establishing diagnostic criteria and prognostic importance

BACKGROUND

We aimed to establish diagnostic criteria for bleeding independently associated with mortality after noncardiac surgery (BIMS) defined as bleeding during or within 30 days after noncardiac surgery that is independently associated with mortality within 30 days of surgery, and to estimate the proportion of 30-day postoperative mortality potentially attributable to BIMS.

METHODS

This was a prospective cohort study of participants ≥45 yr old having inpatient noncardiac surgery at 12 academic hospitals in eight countries between 2007 and 2011. Cox proportional hazards models evaluated the adjusted relationship between candidate diagnostic criteria for BIMS and all-cause mortality within 30 days of surgery.

RESULTS

Of 16 079 participants, 2.0% (315) died and 36.1% (5810) met predefined screening criteria for bleeding. Based on independent association with 30-day mortality, BIMS was identified as bleeding leading to a postoperative haemoglobin <70 g L^-1, transfusion of ≥1 unit of red blood cells, or that was judged to be the cause of death. Bleeding independently associated with mortality after noncardiac surgery occurred in 17.3% of patients (2782). Death occurred in 5.8% of patients with BIMS (161/2782), 1.3% (39/3028) who met bleeding screening criteria but not BIMS criteria, and 1.1% (115/10 269) without bleeding. BIMS was associated with mortality (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.87; 95% confidence interval: 1.42-2.47). We estimated the proportion of 30-day postoperative deaths potentially attributable to BIMS to be 20.1-31.9%.

CONCLUSIONS

Bleeding independently associated with mortality after noncardiac surgery (BIMS), defined as bleeding that leads to a postoperative haemoglobin <70 g L^-1, blood transfusion, or that is judged to be the cause of death, is common and may account for a quarter of deaths after noncardiac surgery.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT00512109.

Whole-exome sequencing identifies rare variants in STAB2 associated with venous thromboembolic disease

Deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism, collectively defined as venous thromboembolism (VTE), are the third leading cause of cardiovascular death in the United States. Common genetic variants conferring increased varying degrees of VTE risk have been identified by genome-wide association studies (GWAS). Rare mutations in the anticoagulant genes PROC, PROS1 and SERPINC1 result in perinatal lethal thrombosis in homozygotes and markedly increased VTE risk in heterozygotes. However, currently described VTE variants account for an insufficient portion of risk to be routinely used for clinical decision making. To identify new rare VTE risk variants, we performed a whole-exome study of 393 individuals with unprovoked VTE and 6114 controls. This study identified 4 genes harboring an excess number of rare damaging variants in patients with VTE: PROS1, STAB2, PROC, and SERPINC1. At STAB2, 7.8% of VTE cases and 2.4% of controls had a qualifying rare variant. In cell culture, VTE-associated variants of STAB2 had a reduced surface expression compared with reference STAB2. Common variants in STAB2 have been previously associated with plasma von Willebrand factor and coagulation factor VIII levels in GWAS, suggesting that haploinsufficiency of stabilin-2 may increase VTE risk through elevated levels of these procoagulants. In an independent cohort, we found higher von Willebrand factor levels and equivalent propeptide levels in individuals with rare STAB2 variants compared with controls. Taken together, this study demonstrates the utility of gene-based collapsing analyses to identify loci harboring an excess of rare variants with functional connections to a complex thrombotic disease.

Preoperative prediction of Bleeding Independently associated with Mortality after noncardiac Surgery (BIMS): an international prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Diagnostic criteria for Bleeding Independently associated with Mortality after noncardiac Surgery (BIMS) have been defined as bleeding that leads to a postoperative haemoglobin <70 g L^-1, leads to blood transfusion, or is judged to be the direct cause of death. Preoperative prediction guides for BIMS can facilitate informed consent and planning of perioperative care.

METHODS

In a prospective cohort study of 16 079 participants aged ≥45 yr having inpatient noncardiac surgery at 12 academic hospitals in eight countries between 2007 and 2011, 17.3% (2782) experienced BIMS. An electronic risk calculator for BIMS was developed and internally validated by logistic regression with bootstrapping, and further simplified to a risk index. Decision curve analysis assessed the potential utility of each prediction guide compared with a strategy of identifying risk of BIMS based on preoperative haemoglobin <120 g L^-1.

RESULTS

With information about the type of surgery, preoperative haemoglobin, age, sex, functional status, kidney function, history of high-risk coronary artery disease, and active cancer, the risk calculator accurately predicted BIMS (bias-corrected C-statistic, 0.84; 95% confidence interval, 0.837-0.852). A simplified index based on preoperative haemoglobin <120 g L^-1, open surgery, and high-risk surgery also predicted BIMS, but less accurately (C-statistic, 0.787; 95% confidence interval, 0.779-0.796). Both prediction guides could improve decision making compared with knowledge of haemoglobin <120 g L^-1 alone.

CONCLUSIONS

BIMS, defined as bleeding that leads to a postoperative haemoglobin <70 g L^-1, leads to blood transfusion, or that is judged to be the direct cause of death, can be predicted by a simple risk index before surgery.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT00512109.

Tranexamic acid and rosuvastatin in patients at risk of cardiovascular events after noncardiac surgery: a pilot of the POISE-3 randomized controlled trial

Background

Surgical bleeding is associated with postoperative cardiovascular complications. The efficacy and safety of tranexamic acid (TXA) in noncardiac surgery are still uncertain. Statins may prevent perioperative cardiovascular complications. We conducted a pilot to assess the feasibility of a perioperative trial of TXA and rosuvastatin.

Methods

Using a factorial design, we randomized patients at cardiovascular risk undergoing noncardiac surgery to intravenous TXA (1 g at the start and end of surgery) or placebo, and oral rosuvastatin (40 mg before and 20 mg daily for 30 days after surgery) or placebo. Feasibility outcomes included recruitment rates, follow-up, and compliance to interventions. Clinical outcomes were secondarily explored.

Results

After 3 months, we changed the design to a partial factorial due to the difficult recruitment of statin-naive patients. Over 6 months, 100 patients were randomized in the TXA trial (49 TXA, 51 placebo), 34 in the rosuvastatin trial (18 rosuvastatin, 16 placebo). Ninety-two percent (95% CI 80–98) of TXA and 86% (95% CI 74–94) of TXA-placebo patients received the 2 study doses. Thirty-three percent (95% CI 13–59) of rosuvastatin patients and 37% (95% CI 15–65) of rosuvastatin-placebo patients discontinued the study drug. A major cardiovascular complication occurred at 30 days in 1 TXA and 6 TXA-placebo patients, and 1 rosuvastatin and no rosuvastatin-placebo patients.

Conclusions

Our pilot study supports the feasibility of a perioperative TXA trial in noncardiac surgery. Feasibility of a perioperative rosuvastatin trial is uncertain because of a high prevalence of statin use in the target population and concerns about compliance.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.govNCT02546648.

External validation of the SOX-PTS score in a prospective multicenter trial of patients with proximal deep vein thrombosis

BACKGROUND

Using data from the SOX Trial, we recently developed a clinical prediction model for occurrence of the postthrombotic syndrome (PTS) after proximal deep vein thrombosis (DVT), termed the SOX-PTS score. The score includes anatomical extent of DVT; body mass index; and baseline Villalta score.

OBJECTIVE

To externally validate the SOX-PTS score.

METHODS

Logistic regression analysis of data from the ATTRACT Trial that evaluated pharmacomechanical catheter directed thrombolysis in patients with proximal DVT. The primary outcome was the occurrence of PTS (defined as Villalta score ≥ 5) from 6 to 24 months after DVT. Secondary outcomes included moderate-severe PTS (Villalta scale ≥ 10) and severe PTS (Villalta scale ≥ 14). Predictive performance was assessed by discrimination and calibration. An updated score was evaluated in an exploratory analysis.

RESULTS

Six hundred and ninety-one ATTRACT patients were included, of whom 328 (47%) developed PTS. The c-statistic was 0.63; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.59-0.67 for PTS. The model's performance appeared to be better for the outcomes moderate to severe PTS and severe PTS (c-statistic 0.67; 95% CI 0.62-0.72 for moderate-severe PTS and 0.70; 0.64-0.77 for severe PTS). An updated model with age as an additional variable performed similarly to the original model.

CONCLUSION

We externally validated the SOX-PTS score for estimating the risk of developing PTS, moderate to severe PTS, and severe PTS, in patients with proximal DVT. The score may be useful to predict PTS at the time of DVT diagnosis. Further external validation in different patient cohorts is required.

Clinical pre-test probability adjusted versus age-adjusted D-dimer interpretation strategy for DVT diagnosis: A diagnostic individual patient data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

To increase the clinical usefulness of the D-dimer test in diagnosis of deep vein thrombosis (DVT), two strategies have been proposed: the age-adjusted, and the clinical pre-test probability (CPTP) adjusted interpretation. However, it is not known which of these strategies is superior.

OBJECTIVE

To conduct an individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis that compares the sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value (NPV), and utility (the proportion of all patients who have a negative D-dimer test) when the two strategies are used to interpret D-dimer results.

METHODS

Using an established IPD database, we conducted a meta-analysis to compare the two strategies. A bivariate random effects regression model was used to estimate and compare the pooled sensitivity and specificity simultaneously. The pooled NPV and utility of the two strategies was compared using a univariate random effects model.

RESULTS

Four studies were eligible for this analysis, with a total of 2554 patients. Overall prevalence of DVT was 12% with substantial heterogeneity between studies (P value < .001). Both strategies have high pooled NPVs (99.8%) with a difference of 0% (95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.1, 0.1). The difference between the pooled specificity of the CPTP-adjusted strategy (57.3%) and the age-adjusted strategy (54.7%) was 2.6% (95% CI: -7.7, 12.8). The CPTP-adjusted strategy (49.4%) has a marginally greater pooled utility compared with the age-adjusted approach (47.4%), with a pooled difference of 1.9% (95% CI: -0.1, 3.9).

CONCLUSIONS

Both D-dimer interpretation strategies were associated with a high and similar NPV, and similar utility.

Accelerated surgery versus standard care in hip fracture (HIP ATTACK): an international, randomised, controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Observational studies have suggested that accelerated surgery is associated with improved outcomes in patients with a hip fracture. The HIP ATTACK trial assessed whether accelerated surgery could reduce mortality and major complications.

METHODS

HIP ATTACK was an international, randomised, controlled trial done at 69 hospitals in 17 countries. Patients with a hip fracture that required surgery and were aged 45 years or older were eligible. Research personnel randomly assigned patients (1:1) through a central computerised randomisation system using randomly varying block sizes to either accelerated surgery (goal of surgery within 6 h of diagnosis) or standard care. The coprimary outcomes were mortality and a composite of major complications (ie, mortality and non-fatal myocardial infarction, stroke, venous thromboembolism, sepsis, pneumonia, life-threatening bleeding, and major bleeding) at 90 days after randomisation. Patients, health-care providers, and study staff were aware of treatment assignment, but outcome adjudicators were masked to treatment allocation. Patients were analysed according to the intention-to-treat principle. This study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02027896).

FINDINGS

Between March 14, 2014, and May 24, 2019, 27 701 patients were screened, of whom 7780 were eligible. 2970 of these were enrolled and randomly assigned to receive accelerated surgery (n=1487) or standard care (n=1483). The median time from hip fracture diagnosis to surgery was 6 h (IQR 4-9) in the accelerated-surgery group and 24 h (10-42) in the standard-care group (p<0·0001). 140 (9%) patients assigned to accelerated surgery and 154 (10%) assigned to standard care died, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 0·91 (95% CI 0·72 to 1·14) and absolute risk reduction (ARR) of 1% (-1 to 3; p=0·40). Major complications occurred in 321 (22%) patients assigned to accelerated surgery and 331 (22%) assigned to standard care, with an HR of 0·97 (0·83 to 1·13) and an ARR of 1% (-2 to 4; p=0·71).

INTERPRETATION

Among patients with a hip fracture, accelerated surgery did not significantly lower the risk of mortality or a composite of major complications compared with standard care.

FUNDING

Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

Clinical Predictors of Intracranial Bleeding in Older Adults Who Have Fallen: A Cohort Study

OBJECTIVES

Emergency department (ED) visits among older adults are frequently instigated by a fall at home. Some of these patients develop intracranial bleeding. The aim of this study was to identify the incidence of intracranial bleeding and the associated clinical features in older adults who present to the ED after falling.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

Three Canadian EDs.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 2 176 patients age 65 years or older who presented to the ED with a fall were assessed, and 1753 were included. Inclusion criteria were a fall on level ground, off a bed, chair, or toilet, or from one or two steps within 48 hours.

MEASUREMENTS

Emergency physicians recorded predefined clinical findings on initial assessment. The primary outcome was intracranial bleeding, diagnosed either by computed tomography at the index visit or within 42 days. Associations between baseline clinical findings and the presence of intracranial bleeding were assessed with multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS

A total of 1753 patients (median age = 82 y) were enrolled, of whom 39% were male, 35% were on antiplatelet therapy, and 25% were on an anticoagulant. The incidence of intracranial bleeding was 5.0% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 4.1-6.1). Overall, 76 patients were diagnosed at the index ED visit, and 12 were diagnosed during follow-up. Multivariable regression identified four clinical variables that were independently associated with intracranial bleeding: new abnormalities on neurologic examination (odds ratio [OR] = 4.4; 95% CI = 2.4-8.1), bruise or laceration on the head (OR = 4.3; 95% CI = 2.7-7.0), chronic kidney disease (OR = 2.4; 95% CI = 1.3-4.6), and reduced Glasgow Coma Scale from normal (OR = 1.9; 95% CI = 1.0-3.4).

CONCLUSION

The incidence of intracranial bleeding in our study was 5.0%. We found significant associations between intracranial bleeding and four simple clinical variables. We did not find significant associations between intracranial bleeding and antiplatelet or anticoagulant use. J Am Geriatr Soc 68:970-976, 2020.

Quality of life after pharmacomechanical catheter-directed thrombolysis for proximal deep venous thrombosis

BACKGROUND

After deep venous thrombosis (DVT), many patients have impaired quality of life (QOL). We aimed to assess whether pharmacomechanical catheter-directed thrombolysis (PCDT) improves short-term or long-term QOL in patients with proximal DVT and whether QOL is related to extent of DVT.

METHODS

The Acute Venous Thrombosis: Thrombus Removal with Adjunctive Catheter-Directed Thrombolysis (ATTRACT) trial was an assessor-blinded randomized trial that compared PCDT with no PCDT in patients with DVT of the femoral, common femoral, or iliac veins. QOL was assessed at baseline and 1 month, 6 months, 12 months, 18 months, and 24 months using the Venous Insufficiency Epidemiological and Economic Study on Quality of Life/Symptoms (VEINES-QOL/Sym) disease-specific QOL measure and the 36-Item Short Form Health Survey (SF-36) physical component summary (PCS) and mental component summary general QOL measures. Change in QOL scores from baseline to assessment time were compared in the PCDT and no PCDT treatment groups overall and in the iliofemoral DVT and femoral-popliteal DVT subgroups.

RESULTS

Of 692 ATTRACT patients, 691 were analyzed (mean age, 53 years; 62% male; 57% iliofemoral DVT). VEINES-QOL change scores were greater (ie, better) in PCDT vs no PCDT from baseline to 1 month (difference, 5.7; P = .0006) and from baseline to 6 months (5.1; P = .0029) but not for other intervals. SF-36 PCS change scores were greater in PCDT vs no PCDT from baseline to 1 month (difference, 2.4; P = .01) but not for other intervals. Among iliofemoral DVT patients, VEINES-QOL change scores from baseline to all assessments were greater in the PCDT vs no PCDT group; this was statistically significant in the intention-to-treat analysis at 1 month (difference, 10.0; P < .0001) and 6 months (8.8; P < .0001) and in the per-protocol analysis at 18 months (difference, 5.8; P = .0086) and 24 months (difference, 6.6; P = .0067). SF-36 PCS change scores were greater in PCDT vs no PCDT from baseline to 1 month (difference, 3.2; P = .0010) but not for other intervals. In contrast, in femoral-popliteal DVT patients, change scores from baseline to all assessments were similar in the PCDT and no PCDT groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients with proximal DVT, PCDT leads to greater improvement in disease-specific QOL than no PCDT at 1 month and 6 months but not later. In patients with iliofemoral DVT, PCDT led to greater improvement in disease-specific QOL during 24 months.

Endovascular Thrombus Removal for Acute Iliofemoral Deep Vein Thrombosis

BACKGROUND

The ATTRACT trial (Acute Venous Thrombosis: Thrombus Removal with Adjunctive Catheter-Directed Thrombolysis) previously reported that pharmacomechanical catheter-directed thrombolysis (PCDT) did not prevent postthrombotic syndrome (PTS) in patients with acute proximal deep vein thrombosis. In the current analysis, we examine the effect of PCDT in ATTRACT patients with iliofemoral deep vein thrombosis.

METHODS

Within a large multicenter randomized trial, 391 patients with acute deep vein thrombosis involving the iliac or common femoral veins were randomized to PCDT with anticoagulation versus anticoagulation alone (No-PCDT) and were followed for 24 months to compare short-term and long-term outcomes.

RESULTS

Between 6 and 24 months, there was no difference in the occurrence of PTS (Villalta scale ≥5 or ulcer: 49% PCDT versus 51% No-PCDT; risk ratio, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.78-1.15; P=0.59). PCDT led to reduced PTS severity as shown by lower mean Villalta and Venous Clinical Severity Scores ( P<0.01 for comparisons at 6, 12, 18, and 24 months), and fewer patients with moderate-or-severe PTS (Villalta scale ≥10 or ulcer: 18% versus 28%; risk ratio, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.45-0.94; P=0.021) or severe PTS (Villalta scale ≥15 or ulcer: 8.7% versus 15%; risk ratio, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.32-1.01; P=0.048; and Venous Clinical Severity Score ≥8: 6.6% versus 14%; risk ratio, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.24-0.87; P=0.013). From baseline, PCDT led to greater reduction in leg pain and swelling ( P<0.01 for comparisons at 10 and 30 days) and greater improvement in venous disease-specific quality of life (Venous Insufficiency Epidemiological and Economic Study Quality of Life unit difference 5.6 through 24 months, P=0.029), but no difference in generic quality of life ( P>0.2 for comparisons of SF-36 mental and physical component summary scores through 24 months). In patients having PCDT versus No-PCDT, major bleeding within 10 days occurred in 1.5% versus 0.5% ( P=0.32), and recurrent venous thromboembolism over 24 months was observed in 13% versus 9.2% ( P=0.21).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with acute iliofemoral deep vein thrombosis, PCDT did not influence the occurrence of PTS or recurrent venous thromboembolism. However, PCDT significantly reduced early leg symptoms and, over 24 months, reduced PTS severity scores, reduced the proportion of patients who developed moderate-or-severe PTS, and resulted in greater improvement in venous disease-specific quality of life.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT00790335.

Diagnosis of Pulmonary Embolism with d-Dimer Adjusted to Clinical Probability

BACKGROUND

Retrospective analyses suggest that pulmonary embolism is ruled out by a d-dimer level of less than 1000 ng per milliliter in patients with a low clinical pretest probability (C-PTP) and by a d-dimer level of less than 500 ng per milliliter in patients with a moderate C-PTP.

METHODS

We performed a prospective study in which pulmonary embolism was considered to be ruled out without further testing in outpatients with a low C-PTP and a d-dimer level of less than 1000 ng per milliliter or with a moderate C-PTP and a d-dimer level of less than 500 ng per milliliter. All other patients underwent chest imaging (usually computed tomographic pulmonary angiography). If pulmonary embolism was not diagnosed, patients did not receive anticoagulant therapy. All patients were followed for 3 months to detect venous thromboembolism.

RESULTS

A total of 2017 patients were enrolled and evaluated, of whom 7.4% had pulmonary embolism on initial diagnostic testing. Of the 1325 patients who had a low C-PTP (1285 patients) or moderate C-PTP (40 patients) and a negative d-dimer test (i.e., <1000 or <500 ng per milliliter, respectively), none had venous thromboembolism during follow-up (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.00 to 0.29%). These included 315 patients who had a low C-PTP and a d-dimer level of 500 to 999 ng per milliliter (95% CI, 0.00 to 1.20%). Of all 1863 patients who did not receive a diagnosis of pulmonary embolism initially and did not receive anticoagulant therapy, 1 patient (0.05%; 95% CI, 0.01 to 0.30) had venous thromboembolism. Our diagnostic strategy resulted in the use of chest imaging in 34.3% of patients, whereas a strategy in which pulmonary embolism is considered to be ruled out with a low C-PTP and a d-dimer level of less than 500 ng per milliliter would result in the use of chest imaging in 51.9% (difference, -17.6 percentage points; 95% CI, -19.2 to -15.9).

CONCLUSIONS

A combination of a low C-PTP and a d-dimer level of less than 1000 ng per milliliter identified a group of patients at low risk for pulmonary embolism during follow-up. (Funded by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research and others; PEGeD ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02483442.).

Cost-Effectiveness of Pharmacomechanical Catheter-Directed Thrombolysis Versus Standard Anticoagulation in Patients With Proximal Deep Vein Thrombosis: Results From the ATTRACT Trial

BACKGROUND

In patients with acute deep vein thrombosis (DVT), pharmacomechanical catheter-directed thrombolysis (PCDT) in conjunction with anticoagulation therapy is increasingly used with the goal of preventing postthrombotic syndrome. Long-term costs and cost-effectiveness of these 2 treatment strategies from the perspective of the US healthcare system have not been compared.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Between 2009 and 2014, the ATTRACT trial (Acute Venous Thrombosis: Thrombus Removal With Adjunctive Catheter-Directed Thrombolysis) randomized 692 patients with acute proximal DVT to PCDT plus anticoagulation (n=337) or standard treatment with anticoagulation alone (n=355). Costs (2017 US dollars) were assessed over a 24-month follow-up period using a combination of resource-based costing, hospital bills, Medicare reimbursement rates, and the Drug Topics Red Book. Health state utilities were obtained from the Short Form-36. In-trial results and US life tables were used to develop a Markov cohort model to evaluate lifetime cost-effectiveness. For the PCDT group, mean costs of the initial procedure were $13 600; per-patient costs associated with the index hospitalization were $21 509 for PCDT and $3877 for standard care (difference=$17 632; 95% CI, $16 117-$19 243). The 24-month difference in costs was $20 045 (95% CI, $16 093-$24 120). Utility scores increased significantly between baseline and 6 months for both groups, with no significant differences between groups at any follow-up time point. Projected differences in lifetime costs of $16 740 and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) of 0.08, yield an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for PCDT of $222 041/QALY gained. In probabilistic sensitivity analysis, the probability that PCDT would achieve a lifetime incremental cost-effectiveness ratio <$50 000/QALY or <$150 000/QALY was 1% and 25%, respectively. For iliofemoral DVT, QALY gains with PCDT were greater, yielding an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $137 526/QALY; for femoral-popliteal DVT, standard therapy was an economically dominant strategy.

CONCLUSIONS

With an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio >$200 000/QALY gained, PCDT is not an economically attractive treatment for proximal DVT. PCDT may be of intermediate value in patients with iliofemoral DVT. Clinical Trial Registration URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00790335.

Interventional Therapies for Acute Pulmonary Embolism: Current Status and Principles for the Development of Novel Evidence: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association

Pulmonary embolism (PE) represents the third leading cause of cardiovascular mortality. The technological landscape for management of acute intermediate- and high-risk PE is rapidly evolving. Two interventional devices using pharmacomechanical means to recanalize the pulmonary arteries have recently been cleared by the US Food and Drug Administration for marketing, and several others are in various stages of development. The purpose of this document is to clarify the current state of endovascular interventional therapy for acute PE and to provide considerations for evidence development for new devices that will define which patients with PE would derive the greatest net benefit from their use in various clinical settings. First, definitions and limitations of commonly used risk stratification tools for PE are reviewed. An adjudication of risks and benefits of available interventional therapies for PE follows. Next, considerations for optimal future evidence development in this field are presented in the context of the current US regulatory framework. Finally, the document concludes with a discussion of the pros and cons of the rapidly expanding PE response team model of care delivery.

Relationships between the use of pharmacomechanical catheter-directed thrombolysis, sonographic findings, and clinical outcomes in patients with acute proximal DVT: Results from the ATTRACT Multicenter Randomized Trial

Few studies have documented relationships between endovascular therapy, duplex ultrasonography (DUS), post-thrombotic syndrome (PTS), and quality of life (QOL). The Acute Venous Thrombosis: Thrombus Removal with Adjunctive Catheter-Directed Thrombolysis (ATTRACT) trial randomized 692 patients with acute proximal deep vein thrombosis (DVT) to receive anticoagulation or anticoagulation plus pharmacomechanical catheter-directed thrombolysis (PCDT). Compression DUS was obtained at baseline, 1 month and 12 months. Reflux DUS was obtained at 12 months in a subset of 126 patients. Clinical outcomes were collected over 24 months. At 1 month, patients who received PCDT had less residual thrombus compared to Control patients, evidenced by non-compressible common femoral vein (CFV) (21% vs 35%, p < 0.0001), femoral vein (51% vs 70%, p < 0.0001), and popliteal vein (61% vs 74%, p < 0.0001). At 12 months, in the ultrasound substudy, valvular reflux prevalence was similar between groups (85% vs 91%, p = 0.35). CFV non-compressibility at 1 month was associated with higher rates of any PTS (61% vs 46%, p < 0.001), a higher incidence of moderate-or-severe PTS (30% vs 19%, p = 0.003), and worse QOL (difference 8.2 VEINES-QOL (VEnous INsufficiency Epidemiological and Economic Study on Quality of Life) points; p = 0.004) at 24 months. Valvular reflux at 12 months was associated with moderate-or-severe PTS at 24 months (30% vs 0%, p = 0.01). In summary, PCDT results in less residual thrombus but does not reduce venous valvular reflux. CFV non-compressibility at 1 month is associated with more PTS, more severe PTS, and worse QOL at 24 months. Valvular reflux may predispose to moderate-or-severe PTS. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier NCT00790335.

Long term risk of symptomatic recurrent venous thromboembolism after discontinuation of anticoagulant treatment for first unprovoked venous thromboembolism event: systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

To determine the rate of a first recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE) event after discontinuation of anticoagulant treatment in patients with a first episode of unprovoked VTE, and the cumulative incidence for recurrent VTE up to 10 years.

DESIGN

Systematic review and meta-analysis.

DATA SOURCES

Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (from inception to 15 March 2019).

STUDY SELECTION

Randomised controlled trials and prospective cohort studies reporting symptomatic recurrent VTE after discontinuation of anticoagulant treatment in patients with a first unprovoked VTE event who had completed at least three months of treatment.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Two investigators independently screened studies, extracted data, and appraised risk of bias. Data clarifications were sought from authors of eligible studies. Recurrent VTE events and person years of follow-up after discontinuation of anticoagulant treatment were used to calculate rates for individual studies, and data were pooled using random effects meta-analysis. Sex and site of initial VTE were investigated as potential sources of between study heterogeneity.

RESULTS

18 studies involving 7515 patients were included in the analysis. The pooled rate of recurrent VTE per 100 person years after discontinuation of anticoagulant treatment was 10.3 events (95% confidence interval 8.6 to 12.1) in the first year, 6.3 (5.1 to 7.7) in the second year, 3.8 events/year (95% confidence interval 3.2 to 4.5) in years 3-5, and 3.1 events/year (1.7 to 4.9) in years 6-10. The cumulative incidence for recurrent VTE was 16% (95% confidence interval 13% to 19%) at 2 years, 25% (21% to 29%) at 5 years, and 36% (28% to 45%) at 10 years. The pooled rate of recurrent VTE per 100 person years in the first year was 11.9 events (9.6 to 14.4) for men and 8.9 events (6.8 to 11.3) for women, with a cumulative incidence for recurrent VTE of 41% (28% to 56%) and 29% (20% to 38%), respectively, at 10 years. Compared to patients with isolated pulmonary embolism, the rate of recurrent VTE was higher in patients with proximal deep vein thrombosis (rate ratio 1.4, 95% confidence interval 1.1 to 1.7) and in patients with pulmonary embolism plus deep vein thrombosis (1.5, 1.1 to 1.9). In patients with distal deep vein thrombosis, the pooled rate of recurrent VTE per 100 person years was 1.9 events (95% confidence interval 0.5 to 4.3) in the first year after anticoagulation had stopped. The case fatality rate for recurrent VTE was 4% (95% confidence interval 2% to 6%).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with a first episode of unprovoked VTE who completed at least three months of anticoagulant treatment, the risk of recurrent VTE was 10% in the first year after treatment, 16% at two years, 25% at five years, and 36% at 10 years, with 4% of recurrent VTE events resulting in death. These estimates should inform clinical practice guidelines, enhance confidence in counselling patients of their prognosis, and help guide decision making about long term management of unprovoked VTE.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42017056309.

Long-term risk of recurrence in patients with a first unprovoked venous thromboembolism managed according to d-dimer results; A cohort study

Essentials Long-term recurrence risk after a first unprovoked VTE with negative d-dimer levels is uncertain. Anticoagulation was stopped if d-dimer was negative, and was continued if d-dimer was positive. Five years after stopping anticoagulants, recurrent VTE was 30% in men and 17% in women. Negative d-dimers do not justify stopping anticoagulants in most men but appear to in most women.

BACKGROUND

The long-term risk of recurrence in patients with a first unprovoked venous thromboembolism (VTE) who have negative d-dimer results is uncertain.

OBJECTIVES

To determine this risk, including in subgroups based on sex.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

ln a prospective interventional cohort study of 410 patients with a first unprovoked VTE, anticoagulants were stopped if d-dimer was negative on therapy and 1 month after stopping therapy. Other patients remained on anticoagulant therapy. We previously reported findings after a mean of 2.2 years. The current report includes 3 years of additional follow-up in 293 of these patients.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 5.0 years, recurrent VTE after stopping therapy in response to negative d-dimer testing was 5.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.6-6.5) per patient-year overall, 7.5% (95% CI, 5.5-10.0) in men, 3.8% (95% CI, 2.0-6.6) in women with VTE not associated with estrogens, and 0.4% (95% CI, 0.0-2.3) in women with VTE associated with estrogens (P < 0.001 for three-group comparison). Risk of recurrence at 5 years was 21.5% (95% CI, 16.4-26.5) overall, 29.7% (95% CI, 22.1-37.3) in men, 17.0% (95% CI, 8.1-25.9) in non-estrogen women, and 2.3% (95% CI, 0.0-6.8) in estrogen women.

CONCLUSION

The long-term risk of recurrence in patients with a first unprovoked VTE who have negative d-dimer results is not low enough to justify stopping anticoagulant therapy in men, but appears to be low enough in women for many to choose stopping therapy (ClinicalTrials.gov; NCT00720915).

Treatment of Superficial Vein Thrombosis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background The optimal first line treatment for patients with isolated superficial venous thrombosis (SVT) of the lower extremity is unknown.

Objective This article reports estimates of the rate of venous thromboembolic complications among patients with SVT according to treatment.

Materials and Methods A systematic review and meta-analysis was performed using unrestricted searches of electronic databases. Reported events were transformed to event per 100 patient-years of follow-up and a random effects model was used to calculate pooled rates according to pre-specified treatment categories. The primary outcome was the occurrence of deep vein thrombosis (DVT) or pulmonary embolism (PE) during the study follow-up period.

Results Seventeen articles, including 6,862 patients, were included in the meta-analysis. Fondaparinux had the lowest event rate with 1.4 events per 100 patient-years of follow-up (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.5–2.8, I 2 = 18%). Pooled event rates for DVT or PE ranged from 9.3 to 16.6 events per 100 patient-years across other treatment categories, and the pooled event rate for no treatment/placebo was 10.5 events per 100 patient-years (95% CI, 3.0–22.0). Major bleeding was low and similar across all treatment categories. Heterogeneity was moderate to high for most pooled estimates.

Conclusion While pooled event rates suggest that fondaparinux achieves the lowest rate of DVT or PE, low-quality evidence for other treatments prevents firm conclusions about the optimal treatment for SVT.

Pharmacomechanical Catheter-Directed Thrombolysis in Acute Femoral–Popliteal Deep Vein Thrombosis: Analysis from a Stratified Randomized Trial

Background and Objectives The Acute Venous Thrombosis: Thrombus Removal with Adjunctive Catheter-Directed Thrombolysis (ATTRACT) trial reported that pharmacomechanical catheter-directed thrombolysis (PCDT) did not reduce post-thrombotic syndrome (PTS), but reduced moderate-to-severe PTS and the severity of PTS symptoms. In this analysis, we examine the effect of PCDT in patients with femoral–popliteal deep vein thrombosis (DVT) (without involvement of more proximal veins).

Patients and Methods Within the ATTRACT trial, 300 patients had DVT involving the femoral vein without involvement of the common femoral or iliac veins and were randomized to receive PCDT with anticoagulation or anticoagulation alone (no PCDT). Patients were followed for 24 months.

Results From 6 to 24 months, between the PCDT versus no PCDT arms, there was: no difference in any PTS (Villalta scale ≥ 5: risk ratio [RR] = 0.97; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.75–1.24); moderate-or-severe PTS (Villalta scale ≥ 10: RR = 0.93; 95% CI, 0.57–1.52); severity of PTS scores; or general or disease-specific quality of life (p > 0.5 for all comparisons). From baseline to both 10 and 30 days, there was no difference in improvement of leg pain or swelling between treatment arms. From baseline to 10 days, major bleeding occurred in three versus none (p = 0.06) and any bleeding occurred in eight versus two (p = 0.032) PCDT versus no PCDT patients. Over 24 months, recurrent venous thromboembolism occurred in 16 PCDT and 12 no PCDT patients (p = 0.24).

Conclusion In patients with femoral–popliteal DVT, PCDT did not improve short- or long-term efficacy outcomes, but it increased bleeding. Therefore, PCDT should not be used as initial treatment of femoral–popliteal DVT. (NCT00790335).

Comparison of the Accuracy of Impedance Plethysmography and Compression Ultrasonography in Outpatients with Clinically Suspected Deep Vein Thrombosis

Impedance plethysmography (IPG) and compression ultrasonography (CUS) have been reported to be highly accurate for the diagnosis of deep vein thrombosis (DVT) in symptomatic patients. In many centres CUS has become the method of choice. However, direct comparisons of the accuracy of IPG to CUS have not been performed. To determine the test of choice we performed a two centre prospective comparison of IPG and CUS, with venography, and determined how the size and distribution of thrombi influenced the accuracy of each test. 495 symptomatic outpatients with suspected DVT had evaluable venograms. The prevalence of DVT was 27% (130/495), 84% (109) of which were proximal. The sensitivity of IPG and CUS for proximal vein thrombosis was 77% and 90% respectively (p = .002). The specificity of IPG was 93% whereas the specificity of CUS was 98% (p = 0.04). There were significant differences in accuracy between the two centres as a consequence of differences in the size and location of thrombi. The majority of proximal thrombi not detected by IPG and CUS involved less than 5 cm of the distal half of the popliteal vein and most of these thrombi occurred in one centre. Exclusion of these thrombi from the analysis increases the sensitivity of CUS to 99% (86/87) and IPG to 91% (72/79), for proximal thrombi (p = .019). The positive predictive value of CUS was strongly influenced by the number of abnormal venous segments (three sites were examined); 100% (80/80) if two or three sites were abnormal, but only 68% if a single site was involved. We conclude that: 1) CUS is more accurate than the IPG for the diagnosis of DVT in symptomatic outpatients, and this relationship holds true regardless of the size or location of the DVT, 2) the sensitivities of IPG and CUS are much lower for small proximal DVT, and 3) confirmatory venography is warranted if the abnormality with CUS is limited to one venous segment.

Factors Influencing the Reported Sensitivity and Specificity of Impedance Plethysmography for Proximal Deep Vein Thrombosis

A number of recent studies have found a considerably lower sensitivity of the IPG for proximal DVT than originally reported. We reviewed the literature to try and identify reasons for the between study differences in sensitivity and specificity of the IPG for proximal DVT. A number of biases were identified which may have inflated the sensitivity reported by some earlier studies including: repeated IPG testing prior to venography; inclusion of data from patients used to derive the IPG discriminant line in the final calculation of sensitivity; and inclusion of patients with a known abnormal IPG in the study population. In addition, there is emerging evidence that, at least in some centers, the sensitivity of the IPG may have decreased due to a shift in the spectrum of proximal DVTs to smaller clots. Furthermore, rates of conversion during serial follow-up are considerably higher for IPG than for venous ultrasound, suggesting that IPG conversion is often due to extension of small missed proximal DVTs rather than just extension of calf vein clots. As the smaller proximal DVTs which IPG is prone to miss are likely to be clinically less important than more extensive clots, it is unclear whether the recently reported drop in sensitivity of the IPG places patients at increased risk. IPG users need to be aware of its limitations, and we recommend that additional testing is performed in patients with a high clinical suspicion of DVT who have a normal IPG, as the negative predictive value of IPG may be unacceptable in these circumstances.

Pilot trials in thrombosis: Purpose and pitfalls

Randomized controlled trials provide important evidence to guide clinical practice. These full-scale trials are expensive, time consuming and many are never successfully completed. Well conducted pilot studies help with full-scale trial design, assessment and optimization of feasibility, and can avoid the waste of resources associated with starting a full-scale trial that will not succeed. They also provide an opportunity for capacity growth and mentorship of new investigators. It is important to appreciate that the usual goal of a pilot trial is assessment of feasibility and refinement of trial design rather than to gain preliminary evidence of efficacy. Indeed, using event rates from a pilot trial to calculate sample sizes can be misleading in therapeutic trials. Misconceptions exist that pilot trials are just "small trials," are easy to perform, and are not worthy of publication. While, in the past, many pilot trials were poorly conducted and not followed by a full-scale trial, by following the recommendations in the "CONSORT 2010 statement: extension to randomized pilot and feasibility trials," high-quality pilot trials can be performed and reported that will greatly improve the chances of successfully completing a practice-changing trial. We propose that pilot trials are a valuable investment and describe the TRIM-Line pilot trial (NCT03506815), a pilot study assessing the feasibility of a randomized controlled trial investigating primary thromboprophylaxis with rivaroxaban in patients with malignancy and central venous catheters, as an illustrative example of how a pilot trial in the area of thrombosis should be designed.

Dabigatran in patients with myocardial injury after non-cardiac surgery (MANAGE): an international, randomised, placebo-controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Myocardial injury after non-cardiac surgery (MINS) increases the risk of cardiovascular events and deaths, which anticoagulation therapy could prevent. Dabigatran prevents perioperative venous thromboembolism, but whether this drug can prevent a broader range of vascular complications in patients with MINS is unknown. The MANAGE trial assessed the potential of dabigatran to prevent major vascular complications among such patients.

METHODS

In this international, randomised, placebo-controlled trial, we recruited patients from 84 hospitals in 19 countries. Eligible patients were aged at least 45 years, had undergone non-cardiac surgery, and were within 35 days of MINS. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive dabigatran 110 mg orally twice daily or matched placebo for a maximum of 2 years or until termination of the trial and, using a partial 2-by-2 factorial design, patients not taking a proton-pump inhibitor were also randomly assigned (1:1) to omeprazole 20 mg once daily, for which results will be reported elsewhere, or matched placebo to measure its effect on major upper gastrointestinal complications. Research personnel randomised patients through a central 24 h computerised randomisation system using block randomisation, stratified by centre. Patients, health-care providers, data collectors, and outcome adjudicators were masked to treatment allocation. The primary efficacy outcome was the occurrence of a major vascular complication, a composite of vascular mortality and non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-haemorrhagic stroke, peripheral arterial thrombosis, amputation, and symptomatic venous thromboembolism. The primary safety outcome was a composite of life-threatening, major, and critical organ bleeding. Analyses were done according to the intention-to-treat principle. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01661101.

FINDINGS

Between Jan 10, 2013, and July 17, 2017, we randomly assigned 1754 patients to receive dabigatran (n=877) or placebo (n=877); 556 patients were also randomised in the omeprazole partial factorial component. Study drug was permanently discontinued in 401 (46%) of 877 patients allocated to dabigatran and 380 (43%) of 877 patients allocated to placebo. The composite primary efficacy outcome occurred in fewer patients randomised to dabigatran than placebo (97 [11%] of 877 patients assigned to dabigatran vs 133 [15%] of 877 patients assigned to placebo; hazard ratio [HR] 0·72, 95% CI 0·55-0·93; p=0·0115). The primary safety composite outcome occurred in 29 patients (3%) randomised to dabigatran and 31 patients (4%) randomised to placebo (HR 0·92, 95% CI 0·55-1·53; p=0·76).

INTERPRETATION

Among patients who had MINS, dabigatran 110 mg twice daily lowered the risk of major vascular complications, with no significant increase in major bleeding. Patients with MINS have a poor prognosis; dabigatran 110 mg twice daily has the potential to help many of the 8 million adults globally who have MINS to reduce their risk of a major vascular complication [corrected].

FUNDING

Boehringer Ingelheim and Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

Age-adjusted versus clinical probability-adjusted D-dimer to exclude pulmonary embolism

INTRODUCTION

A low D-dimer can exclude suspected pulmonary embolism (PE) in cases with low or intermediate clinical probability of disease. Yet D-dimer is nonspecific, so many cases without PE require imaging. D-dimer's specificity is improved by increasing the threshold for a positive test with age (age × 10 ng/mL; age-adjusted D-dimer; AADD) or clinical probability of PE (1000 ng/mL if low and 500 ng/mL if intermediate clinical probability; clinical probability-adjusted D-dimer; CPADD). It is unclear which approach is preferable.

OBJECTIVES

We report the sensitivity, specificity and negative predictive value (NPV) of AADD compared to CPADD in suspected PE.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A retrospective cohort of 3500 consecutive cases imaged for suspected PE at two U.S. emergency departments was assembled. We analyzed cases with low or intermediate clinical probability of PE (Revised Geneva Score) who had a D-dimer. The outcome was acute PE on imaging at presentation.

RESULTS

Of the 3500 cases, 1745 were eligible. 37% were low, and 63% were intermediate clinical probability of PE. PE was present in 145 (8.3%) cases. Sensitivity of CPADD was 87.5% vs. 96.6% for AADD (difference 9.1%; 95% CI 4.3% to 14.0%). NPV of CPADD was 97.1% vs. 99.0% for AADD (difference 1.9%; 95% CI, 0.7% to 3.1%). Specificity of CPADD was 37.5% vs. 30.2% for AADD (difference -7.3%; 95% CI -9.4% to -5.1%). D-dimer was negative in 35.4% of cases using CPADD vs. 28.0% using AADD.

CONCLUSIONS

CPADD modestly improved the specificity of D-dimer, but had a lower NPV than AADD. AADD appears preferable in this analysis.