Impact of COVID-19 on care-home mortality and life expectancy in Scotland

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 deaths are commoner among care-home residents, but the mortality burden has not been quantified.

METHODS

Care-home residency was identified via a national primary care registration database linked to mortality data. Life expectancy was estimated using Makeham-Gompertz models to (i) describe yearly life expectancy from November 2015 to October 2020 (ii) compare life expectancy (during 2016-18) between care-home residents and the wider population and (iii) apply care-home life expectancy estimates to COVID-19 death counts to estimate years of life lost (YLL).

RESULTS

Among care-home residents, life expectancy in 2015/16 to 2019/20 ranged from 2.7 to 2.3 years for women and 2.3 to 1.8 years for men. Age-sex-specific life expectancy in 2016-18 in care-home residents was lower than in the Scottish population (10 and 2.5 years in those aged 70 and 90, respectively). Applying care home-specific life expectancies to COVID-19 deaths yield mean YLLs for care-home residents of 2.6 and 2.2 for women and men, respectively. In total YLL care-home residents have lost 3,560 years in women and 2,046 years in men. Approximately half of deaths and a quarter of YLL attributed to COVID-19 were accounted for by the 5% of over-70s who were care-home residents.

CONCLUSION

COVID-19 infection has led to the loss of substantial years of life in care-home residents aged 70 years and over in Scotland. Prioritising the 5% of older adults who are care-home residents for vaccination is justified not only in terms of total deaths, but also in terms of YLL.

Month of Conception and Learning Disabilities: A Record-Linkage Study of 801,592 Children

Learning disabilities have profound, long-lasting health sequelae. Affected children born over the course of 1 year in the United States of America generated an estimated lifetime cost of $51.2 billion. Results from some studies have suggested that autistic spectrum disorder may vary by season of birth, but there have been few studies in which investigators examined whether this is also true of other causes of learning disabilities. We undertook Scotland-wide record linkage of education (annual pupil census) and maternity (Scottish Morbidity Record 02) databases for 801,592 singleton children attending Scottish schools in 2006-2011. We modeled monthly rates using principal sine and cosine transformations of the month number and demonstrated cyclicity in the percentage of children with special educational needs. Rates were highest among children conceived in the first quarter of the year (January-March) and lowest among those conceived in the third (July-September) (8.9% vs 7.6%; P < 0.001). Seasonal variations were specific to autistic spectrum disorder, intellectual disabilities, and learning difficulties (e.g., dyslexia) and were absent for sensory or motor/physical impairments and mental, physical, or communication problems. Seasonality accounted for 11.4% (95% confidence interval: 9.0, 13.7) of all cases. Some biologically plausible causes of this variation, such as infection and maternal vitamin D levels, are potentially amendable to intervention.

Risk of oesophageal cancer among patients previously hospitalised with eating disorder

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There are case reports of oesophageal cancer in patients with eating disorders.

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We followed up a cohort of patients hospitalised previously with eating disorders.

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These patients were at significantly increased risk of oesophageal cancer.

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All cancers were squamous cell carcinomas in females with prior anorexia nervosa.

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Indirect evidence suggests confounding by established risk factors.

Background

It has been suggested that the risk of oesophageal adenocarcinoma might be increased in patients with a history of eating disorders due to acidic damage to oesophageal mucosa caused by self-induced vomiting practiced as a method of weight control. Eating disorders have also been associated with risk factors for squamous cell carcinoma of the oesophagus, including alcohol use disorders, as well as smoking and nutritional deficiencies, which have been associated with both main sub-types of oesophageal cancer. There have been several case reports of oesophageal cancer (both main sub-types) arising in patients with a history of eating disorders.

Methods

We used linked records of hospitalisation, cancer registration and mortality in Scotland spanning 1981–2012 to investigate the risk of oesophageal cancer among patients with a prior history of hospitalisation with eating disorder. The cohort was restricted to patients aged ≥10 years and <60 years at the date of first admission with eating disorder. Disregarding the first year of follow-up, we calculated indirectly standardised incidence ratios using the general population as the reference group to generate expected numbers of cases (based on age-, sex-, socio-economic deprivation category-, and calendar period-specific rates of disease).

Results

After exclusions, the cohort consisted of 3617 individuals contributing 52,455 person-years at risk. The median duration of follow-up was 13.9 years. Seven oesophageal cancers were identified, as compared with 1.14 expected, yielding a standardised incidence ratio of 6.1 (95% confidence interval: 2.5–12.6). All were squamous cell carcinomas arising in females with a prior history of anorexia nervosa.

Conclusions

Patients hospitalised previously with eating disorders are at increased risk of developing oesophageal cancer. Confounding by established risk factors (alcohol, smoking, and nutritional deficiency) seems a more likely explanation than acidic damage through self-induced vomiting because none of the incident cases of oesophageal cancer were adenocarcinomas, and because the study cohort had higher than background rates of hospitalisation with alcohol-related conditions and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Educational outcomes following breech delivery: a record-linkage study of 456947 children

BACKGROUND

Obstetric management of term breech infants changed dramatically following the Term Breech Trial which suggested increased serious neonatal morbidity following trial of labour. Short-term morbidity is a poor proxy of long-term neurological sequelae. We determined whether vaginal breech delivery was associated with educational outcomes.

METHODS

We linked three Scotland-wide administrative databases at an individual level: the ScotXed school census; Scottish Qualifications Authority (SQA) examination results; and Scottish Morbidity Record (SMR02) maternity database. The linkage provided information on singleton children, born at term, attending Scottish schools between 2006 and 2011.

RESULTS

Of the 456 947 eligible children, 1574 (0.3%) had vaginal breech deliveries, 12 489 (2.7%) planned caesarean section for breech presentation and 442 090 (96.9%) vaginal cephalic deliveries. The percentage of term breech infants delivered vaginally fell from 23% to 7% among children who started school in 2006 and 2011, respectively. Of children born by vaginal breech delivery, 1.5% had a low 5-min Apgar score (≤3) compared with only 0.4% of those born by either breech caesarean section [adjusted odds ratio (OR) 6.16, 95% confidence interval (CI) 4.44-8.54, p<0.001] or cephalic vaginal delivery (adjusted OR 3.84, 95% CI 2.99-4.93, p<0.001). Children born by vaginal breech delivery had lower examination attainment than those born by either planned caesarean section for breech presentation (adjusted OR 1.16, 95% CI 1.02-1.32, p=0.020) or vaginal cephalic delivery (adjusted OR 1.14, 95% CI 1.01-1.28, p=0.029).

CONCLUSIONS

Vaginal delivery of term breech infants was associated with lower examination attainment, as well as poorer Apgar scores, suggesting that the adverse effects are not just short-term.

Nationwide linkage analysis in Scotland-Has mortality following hospital admission for Crohn's disease changed in the early 21st century?

BACKGROUND

National Scottish data were used to compare 3-year mortality in patients hospitalized for Crohn's disease (CD) between 1998-2000 and 2007-2009.

METHODS

The linked Scottish Morbidity Records database was used to identify patients admitted with CD during two periods: Period 1 (1998-2000) and Period 2 (2007-2009). 3-year mortality and standardized mortality ratio (SMR) were determined and multivariable logistic regression analysis of associated factors was performed. Mortality was determined following four admission types: surgery-elective, surgery-emergency, medical-elective and medical-emergency. 3-year mortality was compared between study periods using age-standardized rates.

RESULTS

The number of patients per 100,000 population hospitalized with CD per year was unchanged (15.7 [Period 1]; 14.4 [Period 2]). Overall crude and adjusted 3-year mortality rates were also unchanged (crude mortality 9.0%-9.1%, adjusted mortality odds ratio [OR]=0.87, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.65-1.17; p=0.36). The adjusted 3-year mortality increased following elective surgery (Period 1: 1/303 [0.3%]; Period 2: 9/261 [3.4%]); OR=13.5 [CI 1.66-109.99]) and decreased following emergency medical admission (Period 1: 99/779 [12.7%]; Period 2:86/802 [10.7%]; OR=0.68 [CI 0.47-0.97]). Directly age-standardized mortality rates were similar (Period 1:338/10,000 person years [CI 282-394]; Period 2:333/10,000 person years [CI 276-390], p=0.2). On multivariable regression, age, deprivation status, comorbidity and the length of hospital stay were associated with mortality in both periods. High 3-year mortality was observed during both periods in patients between 50 and 64years (Period 1: 33/298 [11.1%, SMR=4.8 [CI 3.44-6.63], Period 2: 33/296 [11.1%, SMR=5.9 [4.14-8.22]) and over 65years(Period 1: 94/275 [34.2%, SMR=2.78 [CI 2.42-3.62], Period 2: 78/251 [31.1%, SMR=3.31 [2.64-4.11]).

CONCLUSION

Nationwide linkage data demonstrate that overall 3-year mortality after hospitalization for CD is high, especially in patients over 50years, and has not altered between the time periods 1998-2000 and 2007-2009.

Comparison of mortality following hospitalisation for ulcerative colitis in Scotland between 1998-2000 and 2007-2009

BACKGROUND

Scottish nationwide linkage data from 1998 to 2000 demonstrated high 3-year mortality in patients hospitalised with ulcerative colitis (UC).

AIM

To compare 3-year mortality, and factors related to mortality, in Scottish patients hospitalised with UC between 1998-2000 and 2007-2009.

METHODS

The Scottish Morbidity Records and linked datasets were used to assess 3-year mortality, standardised mortality ratio (SMR) and multivariate analyses of factors associated with 3-year mortality. The 3-year mortality was determined after four admission types: surgery-elective or emergency; medical-elective or emergency. Age-standardised mortality rates (ASR) were used to compare mortality rates between periods.

RESULTS

Ulcerative colitis admissions increased from 10.6 in Period 1 to 11.6 per 100 000 population per year in Period 2 (P = 0.046). Crude and adjusted 3-year mortality fell between time periods (crude 12.2% to 8.3%; adjusted OR 0.59, CI 0.42-0.81, P = 0.04). Adjusted 3-year mortality following emergency medical admission (OR 0.58, CI 0.39-0.87, P = 0.003) and in patients >65 years (38.8% to 28.7%, P = 0.02) was lower in Period 2. The SMR in period 1 was 3.04 and 2.96 in Period 2. Directly age-standardised mortality decreased from 373 (CI 309-437) to 264 (CI 212-316) per 10 000 person-years. On multivariate analysis, increasing age (50-64 years OR 7.11 (CI 2.77-18.27, P < 0.05); 65-74 years OR 14.70 (CI 5.65-38.25 P < 0.05); >75 years OR 46.42 (CI 18.29-117.78, P < 0.001) and co-morbidity (OR 3.02, CI 1.72-5.28, P < 0.001) were significantly associated with 3-year mortality in Period 2.

CONCLUSIONS

Comparisons of crude and adjusted mortality rates suggest significant improvement in outcome over the last decade - however, mortality remains high, and older age and co-morbidity are important predictors of outcome.

Nationwide linkage analysis in Scotland to assess mortality following hospital admission for Crohn's disease: 1998-2000

BACKGROUND

Although population-based studies of patients with Crohn's disease (CD) suggest only a modestly increased mortality, recent data have raised concerns regarding the outcome of CD patients requiring hospitalisation.

AIM

To determine the mortality and contributory factors in 1595 patients hospitalised for CD in Scotland between 1998 and 2000.

METHODS

The Scottish Morbidity Records database and linked datasets were used to assess longitudinal patient outcome, and to explore associations between 3-year mortality and age, sex, comorbidity, admission type and social deprivation. The standardised mortality ratio (SMR) at 3 years from admission was calculated with reference to the Scottish population.

RESULTS

The SMR was 3.31 (95% confidence interval 2.80-3.89). This was increased in all patients, other than those <30 years at presentation, and was highest in patients aged 50-64 years (SMR 4.84 [3.44-6.63]). On multivariate analysis, age >50, admission type, comorbidity, social deprivation and length of admission were significantly associated with mortality. Other than age, admission type was the strongest factor predictive of death. Three-year crude mortality was 0.3% for elective surgical, 8.7% for emergency surgical, 8.3% for elective nonsurgical and 12.7% for emergency nonsurgical admission (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The study demonstrates high mortality rates in patients hospitalised during 1998-2000 for CD, especially in patients over 50. Elective surgery is associated with lower mortality than emergency surgery or medical therapy. Further study is needed to determine whether these patterns have changed following the introduction of biological treatment.

Nationwide linkage analysis in Scotland implicates age as the critical overall determinant of mortality in ulcerative colitis

BACKGROUND

Recent data associated higher mortality with medical rather than surgical intervention in patients with ulcerative colitis who require hospitalization.

AIM

To examine factors influencing UC-related mortality in Scotland.

METHOD

Using the national record linkage database 1998-2000, 3-year mortality was determined after four admission types: colectomy-elective or emergency; no colectomy-elective or emergency.

RESULTS

Of 1078 patients, crude 3-year mortality rates were: colectomy elective 5.6% (n = 177) and emergency 9.0% (100); no colectomy elective 9.8% (244) and emergency 16.0% (557). Using elective colectomy as reference, multivariate analysis [OR (95% CI)] showed that admission age >50 years [OR 5.46 (2.29-11.95)], male gender [OR 1.92 (1.23-3.02)], comorbidity [OR 2.2 (1.38-3.51)], length of stay >15 days [OR 2.04 (1.08-3.84)] and prior IBD admission [OR 1.66 (1.06-2.61)] were independently related to mortality. Age was the strongest determinant. No patient <30 years died. Mortality of patients aged <50 years [10/587 (1.7%)] was significantly lower than mortality of those aged 50-64 years [26/246 (10.6%)] (chi(2) = 32.91; P < 0.0000001) and >65 [96/245 (39.2%)] (chi(2) = 218.2; P < 0.0000001). For those patients aged more than 65 years, mortality in the four groups was 29.4%, 33.3%, 28.1% and 44.7%- all greater than expected in the Scottish population on assessment of standardized mortality ratios.

CONCLUSION

Hospital admission in UC patients >65 is associated with high mortality. Management strategies should consider this by treatment in specialist units, early investigation, focused medical treatment and earlier surgical referral.

Adhesions after abdominal surgery in children

PURPOSE

The objective of this study is to quantify the overall burden (operative and nonoperative) of small bowel obstruction caused by adhesions after laparotomy in children.

METHODS

Data from the Scottish National Health Service Medical Record Linkage database were used to assess risk of an adhesion-related readmission in the 5 years after open abdominal surgery in children and adolescents younger than 16 years from April 1996 to March 1997.

RESULTS

A total of 1581 children underwent abdominal surgery (ie, from duodenum downward). Patients undergoing surgery on the ileum had the highest risk of readmission because of adhesions in the subsequent 5 years after surgery (9.2%)--formation/closure of ileostomy had the greatest risk (25%); 6.5% of children were readmitted after general laparotomy, 4.7% after duodenal surgery, and 2.1% after colonic surgery. The incidence of readmissions was 0.3% after appendicectomy. The overall readmission rate was 5.3% (if appendicectomy was excluded) and 1.1% (if appendicectomy was included).

CONCLUSION

This population-based study has demonstrated that children have a high incidence of readmissions owing to adhesions after lower abdominal surgery. The risks are related to the site and the type of the original surgery. The risk of further readmissions was highest in the first year but continued with time. The data enable surgeons to target antiadhesion strategies at procedures that lead to a high risk of adhesions.

Population-based analysis of the risk of adhesion-related readmissions after abdominal surgery in children

PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to quantify the risk of adhesion-related readmissions after abdominal surgery in children.

METHODS

This was a population-based study. One thousand five hundred eighty-one children younger than 16 years underwent laparotomy in 1996. Patients were identified from the Scottish Morbidity Records database and followed up for 4 years.

RESULTS

In children younger than 5 years, 4.2% had a readmission "directly" owing to adhesions. In children younger than 16 years, 1.1% had a readmission directly owing to adhesions. The highest risk of readmission followed surgery on the small intestine (9.3%), followed by abdominal wall surgery (5.8%), duodenal surgery (2.6%), colonic surgery (2.1%), and appendicectomy (0.3%). 55% of all readmissions occurred in the first year.

CONCLUSION

There was no difference in readmission rates between younger and older children when comparing the organ on which surgery was initially performed. The highest readmission rate followed small intestinal surgery and the lowest followed appendicectomy. The risk of readmission was highest in the first year.

The SCAR-3 study: 5-year adhesion-related readmission risk following lower abdominal surgical procedures

OBJECTIVE

The Surgical and Clinical Adhesions Research (SCAR) and SCAR-2 studies demonstrated that the burden of adhesions following lower abdominal surgery is considerable and appears to remain unchanged despite advances in strategies to prevent adhesions. In this study, we assessed the adhesion-related readmission risk directly associated with common lower abdominal surgical procedures, taking into account the effect of previous surgery, demography and concomitant disease.

METHODS

Data from the Scottish National Health Service medical record linkage database were used to assess the risk of an adhesion-related readmission following open lower abdominal surgery during April 1996-March 1997.

RESULTS

Patients undergoing lower abdominal surgery (excluding appendicectomy) had a 5% risk of readmission directly related to adhesions in the 5 years following surgery. Appendicectomy was associated with a lower rate of readmission (0.9%), but contributed over 7% of the total lower abdominal surgery patient readmission burden. Panproctocolectomy (15.4%), total colectomy (8.8%) and ileostomy surgery (10.6%) were associated with the highest risk of an adhesion-related readmission. Overall, the risk of readmission was doubled in patients who had undergone abdominal or pelvic surgery within 5 years of the incident operation. A higher risk of readmission was also recorded in patients aged < 60 years compared with those aged > or = 60 yrs. The effect of gender was assessed. However, as the surgical codes used were found to be skewed towards women, these data have not been reported. Readmission risk was slightly higher in patients with concomitant peritonitis compared with patients without peritonitis. In contrast, Crohn's disease had no effect on risk. Patients with colorectal cancer had a lower risk of adhesion formation. However, this may have been due to the type of surgery performed in this patient group.

CONCLUSION

The identification of high-risk patient subgroups may assist in effectively targeting adhesion-prevention strategies and the proffering of preoperative advice on adhesion risk.

Thyroid disease and increased cardiovascular risk

The effects of thyroid dysfunction are thought to be reversible on restoration of euthyroidism, but postmortem and epidemiologic data suggest that subclinical or treated thyroid disease is associated with increased vascular risk. In order to determine the extent of this risk, and to explore whether the nature and/or treatment of thyroid disease are critical in this relationship, we used medical record linkage to match patients with treated thyroid disease of various etiologies with routinely collected national inpatient and daycase hospital discharge records and death records, and assessed the number of hospitalizations from cardiovascular or cerebrovascular disease or death in patients with thyroid disease and control patients. Patients treated for Graves' disease had more hospitalizations from cardiovascular disease than controls (relative risk, 1.42; 95% confidence interval, 1.20 to 1.67; p < 0.001). Toxic multinodular goiter was also associated with significantly higher rates of cardiovascular disease (relative risk, 1.50; 95% confidence interval, 1.11 to 2.02; p = 0.008). Patients with Hashimoto's thyroiditis aged over 50 years had a threefold increase in cardiovascular admissions compared to controls (23.5% and 6.5%, respectively; 95% confidence interval for difference, 6.0% to 27.9%; p = 0.003). Thus, different forms of thyroid disease were associated with increased long-term vascular risk despite restoration of euthyroidism. The mechanisms that mediate this risk are unclear but may not involve thyroid hormone abnormality.

Colorectal surgery: the risk and burden of adhesion-related complications

OBJECTIVES

Adhesions are associated with serious medical complications. This study examines the real-time burden of adhesion-related readmissions following colorectal surgery and assesses the impact of previous surgery on adhesion-related outcomes.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The study used data from the Scottish National Health Service Medical Record Linkage Database to identify three cohorts of patients who had undergone open colorectal surgery during the financial years 1996-97, 1997-98 and 1998-99. Each cohort was followed up for at least 2 years and the number and category of adhesion-related readmissions was recorded. The influence of any previous operations on adhesion-related readmissions was also determined by performing a subanalysis within the 1996-97 cohort of patients who had no record of abdominal surgery within either the previous 5 or 15 years. The relative risk of adhesion-related readmissions was also assessed.

RESULTS

In the 1996-97 cohort, 9.0% of patients were readmitted within a year after surgery; 2.1% had complications directly related to adhesions and 6.9% had complications that were possibly related. After 4 years, 19.0% of patients were readmitted for reasons directly or possibly related to adhesions. Many patients were readmitted on more than one occasion and the relative risk of adhesion-related complications was 29.7 per 100 initial procedures over 4 years. In the subgroups that had no record of abdominal surgery within the previous 5 or 15 years, the relative risks of adhesion-related complications were 24.8% and 23.5%, respectively. There was no change in the rate of adhesion-related readmissions following colorectal surgery between 1996 and 1999.

CONCLUSION

Colorectal surgery is associated with a considerable rate of adhesion-related readmissions. Preventative measures should be considered to reduce this risk.