Follow-up blood cultures do not reduce mortality in hospitalized patients with Gram-negative bloodstream infection: a retrospective population-wide cohort study

OBJECTIVES

The utility of follow-up blood cultures (FUBCs) in patients with Gram-negative bloodstream infection (GN-BSI) is controversial. Observational studies have suggested significant mortality benefit but may be limited by single-centre designs, immortal time bias, and residual confounding. We examined the impact of FUBCs on mortality in patients with GN-BSI in a retrospective population-wide cohort study in Ontario, Canada.

METHODS

Adult patients with GN-BSI hospitalized between April 2017 and December 2021 were included. Primary outcome was all-cause mortality within 30 days. FUBC was treated as a time-varying exposure. Secondary outcomes were 90-day mortality, length of stay, and number of days alive and out of hospital at 30 and 90 days.

RESULTS

Thirty-four thousand one hundred patients were included; 8807 (25.8%) patients received FUBC, of which 966 (11.0%) were positive. Median proportion of patients receiving FUBC was 18.8% (interquartile range, 10.0-29.7%; range, 0-66.1%) across 101 hospitals; this correlated with positivity and contamination rate. Eight hundred ninety (10.1%) patients in the FUBC group and 2263 (8.9%) patients in the no FUBC group died within 30 days. In the fully adjusted model, there was no association between FUBC and mortality (hazard ratio, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.90-1.04). Patients with FUBC had significantly longer length of stay (median, 11 vs. 7 days; adjusted risk ratio, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.16-1.21) and fewer number of days alive and out of hospital at 30 and 90 days.

DISCUSSION

FUBC collection in patients with GN-BSI varies widely across hospitals and may be associated with prolonged hospitalization without clear survival benefit. Residual confounding may be present given the observational design. Clear benefit should be demonstrated in a randomized trial before widespread adoption of routine FUBC.

Introduction of a penicillin allergy de-labelling program with direct oral challenge and its effects on utilization of beta-lactam antimicrobials: a multicenter retrospective parallel cohort study

BACKGROUND

Self-reported penicillin allergy labels are common and often inaccurate after assessment. These labels can lead to reduced use of first-line beta-lactam antibiotics and worse outcomes. We measured the impact of a previously performed inpatient proactive systematic penicillin allergy de-labelling program on subsequent antibiotic use. This prior program included assessment, risk-stratification, and low risk direct oral amoxicillin challenge.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective comparison of parallel cohorts from two separate tertiary care hospital campuses in Ottawa, Canada across two penicillin de-labelling intervention periods across April 15th to April 30th, 2021, and February 15th to March 8th, 2022. Outcomes, including penicillin allergy labelling and antibiotic use, were collected for the index admission and the subsequent 6-month period. Descriptive statistics and multivariate regression analyses were performed.

RESULTS

A total of 368 patients with penicillin allergy label were included across two campuses and study periods. 24 (13.8%) patients in the intervention groups had sustained penicillin allergy label removal at 30 days from admission vs. 3 (1.5%) in the non-intervention group (p < 0.001). In the 6-months following admission, beta-lactams were prescribed more frequently in the intervention groups vs. the non-intervention groups for all patients (28 [16.1%] vs.15 [7.7%], p = 0.04) and were prescribed more frequently amongst those who received at least one antibiotic (28/46 [60.9%] vs.15/40 [37.5%], p = 0.097). In a multivariate regression analysis, the intervention groups were found to be associated with an increased odds of beta-lactam prescribing in all patients (OR 2.49, 95%CI 1.29-5.02) and in those prescribed at least one antibiotic (OR 2.44, 95%CI 1.00-6.15). No drug-related adverse events were reported.

CONCLUSIONS

Proactive penicillin allergy de-labelling for inpatients was associated with a reduction in penicillin allergy labels and increased utilization of beta-lactams in the subsequent 6-months.

A sepsis treatment algorithm to improve early antibiotic de-escalation while maintaining adequacy of coverage (Early-IDEAS): A prospective observational study

BACKGROUND

Empiric antibiotic treatment selection should provide adequate coverage for potential pathogens while minimizing unnecessary broad-spectrum antibiotic use. We sought to pilot a sepsis treatment algorithm to individualize antibiotic recommendations, and thereby improve early antibiotic de-escalation while maintaining adequacy of coverage (Early-IDEAS).

METHODS

In this observational study, the Early-IDEAS decision support algorithm was derived from previous Gram- negative and Gram-positive prediction rules and models along with local guidelines, and then applied to prospectively identified consecutive adults within 24 hours of suspected sepsis. The primary outcome was the proportion of patients for whom de-escalation of the primary antibiotic regimen was recommended by the algorithm. Secondary outcomes included: (1) proportion of patients for whom escalation was recommended; (2) number of recommended de-escalation steps along a pre-specified antibiotic cascade; and (3) adequacy of therapy in patients with culture-confirmed infection.

RESULTS

We screened 578 patients, of whom 107 eligible patients were included. The Early-IDEAS treatment recommendation was informed by Gram-negative models in 76 (71%) patients, Gram-positive rules in 64 (59.8%), and local guidelines in 27 (25.2%). Antibiotic de-escalation was recommended in almost half of all patients (n = 52, 48.6%), with a median of 2 steps down the a priori antibiotic treatment cascade. No treatment change was recommended in 45 patients (42.1%), and escalation was recommended in 10 (9.3%). Among the 17 patients with positive blood cultures, both the clinician prescribed regimen and the algorithm recommendation provided adequate coverage for the isolated pathogen in 12 patients (70.6%), (p = 1). Among the 25 patients with positive relevant, non-blood cultures, both the clinician prescribed regimen and the algorithm recommendation provided adequate coverage in 20 (80%), (p = 1).

CONCLUSION

An individualized decision support algorithm in early sepsis could lead to substantial antibiotic de-escalation without compromising adequate antibiotic coverage.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on blood culture practices and bloodstream infections

IMPORTANCE

Bacterial infections are a significant cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, previous studies have demonstrated pandemic-related shifts in the epidemiology of bacterial bloodstream infections (BSIs) in the general population and in specific hospital systems. Our study uses a large, comprehensive data set stratified by setting [community, long-term care (LTC), and hospital] to uniquely demonstrate how the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on BSIs and testing practices varies by healthcare setting. We showed that, while the number of false-positive blood culture results generally increased during the pandemic, this effect did not apply to hospitalized patients. We also found that many infections were likely under-recognized in patients in the community and in LTC, demonstrating the importance of maintaining healthcare for these groups during crises. Last, we found a decrease in infections caused by certain pathogens in the community, suggesting some secondary benefits of pandemic-related public health measures.

Identifying clusters of coexisting conditions and outcomes among adults admitted to hospital with community-acquired pneumonia: a multicentre cohort study

BACKGROUND

Little is known about patterns of coexisting conditions and their influence on clinical care or outcomes in adults admitted to hospital for community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). We sought to evaluate how coexisting conditions cluster in this population to advance understanding of how multimorbidity affects CAP.

METHODS

We studied 11 085 adults admitted to hospital with CAP at 7 hospitals in Ontario, Canada. Using cluster analysis, we identified patient subgroups based on clustering of comorbidities in the Charlson Comorbidity Index. We derived and replicated cluster analyses in independent cohorts (derivation sample 2010-2015, replication sample 2015-2017), then combined these into a total cohort for final cluster analyses. We described differences in medications, imaging and outcomes.

RESULTS

Patients clustered into 7 subgroups. The low comorbidity subgroup (n = 3052, 27.5%) had no comorbidities. The DM-HF-Pulm subgroup had prevalent diabetes, heart failure and chronic lung disease (n = 1710, 15.4%). One disease category defined each remaining subgroup, as follows: pulmonary (n = 1621, 14.6%), diabetes (n = 1281, 11.6%), heart failure (n = 1370, 12.4%), dementia (n = 1038, 9.4%) and cancer (n = 1013, 9.1%). Corticosteroid use ranged from 11.5% to 64.9% in the dementia and pulmonary subgroups, respectively. Piperacillin-tazobactam use ranged from 9.1% to 28.0% in the pulmonary and cancer subgroups, respectively. The use of thoracic computed tomography ranged from 5.7% to 36.3% in the dementia and cancer subgroups, respectively. Adjusting for patient factors, the risk of in-hospital death was greater in the cancer (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 3.12, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.44-3.99), dementia (adjusted OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.05-2.35), heart failure (adjusted OR 1.66, 95% CI 1.35-2.03) and DM-HF-Pulm subgroups (adjusted OR 1.35, 95% CI 1.12-1.61), and lower in the diabetes subgroup (adjusted OR 0.67, 95% CI 0.50-0.89), compared with the low comorbidity group.

INTERPRETATION

Patients admitted to hospital with CAP cluster into clinically recognizable subgroups based on coexisting conditions. Clinical care and outcomes vary among these subgroups with little evidence to guide decision-making, highlighting opportunities for research to personalize care.

Antibiotic Selection and Duration for Catheter-Associated Urinary Tract Infection in Non-Hospitalized Older Adults: A Population-Based Cohort Study

Background

We sought to evaluate the impact of antibiotic selection and duration of therapy on treatment failure in older adults with catheter-associated urinary tract infection (CA-UTI).

Methods

We conducted a population-based cohort study comparing antibiotic treatment options and duration of therapy for non-hospitalized adults aged 66 and older with presumed CA-UTI (defined as an antibiotic prescription and an organism identified in urine culture in a patient with urinary catheterization documented within the prior 90 d). The primary outcome was treatment failure, a composite of repeat urinary antibiotic prescribing, positive blood culture with the same organism, all-cause hospitalization or mortality, within 60 days. We determined the risk of treatment failure accounting for age, sex, comorbidities, and healthcare exposure using log-binomial regression.

Results

Of 4,436 CA-UTI patients, 2,709 (61.1%) experienced treatment failure. Compared to a reference of TMP-SMX (61.9% failure), of those treated with fluoroquinolones, 56.3% experienced failure (RR 0.91, 95% CI: 0.85-0.98) and 60.9% of patients treated with nitrofurantoin experienced failure (RR 1.02, 95% CI: 0.94-1.10). Compared to 5-7 days of therapy (treatment failure: 59.4%), 1-4 days was associated with 69.5% failure (RR 1.15, 95% CI: 1.05-1.27), and 8-14 days was associated with a 62.0% failure (RR 1.05, 95% CI: 0.99-1.11).

Conclusions

Although most treatment options for CA-UTI have a similar risk of treatment failure, fluoroquinolones, and treatment durations ≥ 5 days in duration appear to be associated with modestly improved clinical outcomes. From a duration of therapy perspective, this study provides reassurance that relatively short courses of 5-7 days may be reasonable for CA-UTI.

Antimicrobial resistance in patients with COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Frequent use of antibiotics in patients with COVID-19 threatens to exacerbate antimicrobial resistance. We aimed to establish the prevalence and predictors of bacterial infections and antimicrobial resistance in patients with COVID-19.

METHODS

We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies of bacterial co-infections (identified within ≤48 h of presentation) and secondary infections (>48 h after presentation) in outpatients or hospitalised patients with COVID-19. We searched the WHO COVID-19 Research Database to identify cohort studies, case series, case-control trials, and randomised controlled trials with populations of at least 50 patients published in any language between Jan 1, 2019, and Dec 1, 2021. Reviews, editorials, letters, pre-prints, and conference proceedings were excluded, as were studies in which bacterial infection was not microbiologically confirmed (or confirmed via nasopharyngeal swab only). We screened titles and abstracts of papers identified by our search, and then assessed the full text of potentially relevant articles. We reported the pooled prevalence of bacterial infections and antimicrobial resistance by doing a random-effects meta-analysis and meta-regression. Our primary outcomes were the prevalence of bacterial co-infection and secondary infection, and the prevalence of antibiotic-resistant pathogens among patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 and bacterial infections. The study protocol was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42021297344).

FINDINGS

We included 148 studies of 362  976 patients, which were done between December, 2019, and May, 2021. The prevalence of bacterial co-infection was 5·3% (95% CI 3·8-7·4), whereas the prevalence of secondary bacterial infection was 18·4% (14·0-23·7). 42 (28%) studies included comprehensive data for the prevalence of antimicrobial resistance among bacterial infections. Among people with bacterial infections, the proportion of infections that were resistant to antimicrobials was 60·8% (95% CI 38·6-79·3), and the proportion of isolates that were resistant was 37·5% (26·9-49·5). Heterogeneity in the reported prevalence of antimicrobial resistance in organisms was substantial (I2=95%).

INTERPRETATION

Although infrequently assessed, antimicrobial resistance is highly prevalent in patients with COVID-19 and bacterial infections. Future research and surveillance assessing the effect of COVID-19 on antimicrobial resistance at the patient and population level are urgently needed.

FUNDING

WHO.

Low-dose trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole for the treatment of Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia (LOW-TMP): protocol for a phase III randomised, placebo-controlled, dose-comparison trial

INTRODUCTION

Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia (PJP) is an opportunistic infection of immunocompromised hosts with significant morbidity and mortality. The current standard of care, trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (TMP-SMX) at a dose of 15-20 mg/kg/day, is associated with serious adverse drug events (ADE) in 20%-60% of patients. ADEs include hypersensitivity reactions, drug-induced liver injury, cytopenias and renal failure, all of which can be treatment limiting. In a recent meta-analysis of observational studies, reduced dose TMP-SMX for the treatment of PJP was associated with fewer ADEs, without increased mortality.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

A phase III randomised, placebo-controlled, trial to directly compare the efficacy and safety of low-dose TMP-SMX (10 mg/kg/day of TMP) with the standard of care (15 mg/kg/day of TMP) among patients with PJP, for a composite primary outcome of change of treatment, new mechanical ventilation, or death. The trial will be undertaken at 16 Canadian hospitals. Data will be analysed as intention to treat. Primary and secondary outcomes will be compared using logistic regression adjusting for stratification and presented with 95% CI.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study has been conditionally approved by the McGill University Health Centre; Ethics approval will be obtained from all participating centres. Results will be submitted for publication in a peer-reviewed journal.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT04851015.

The collapse of infectious disease diagnoses commonly due to communicable respiratory pathogens during the COVID-19 pandemic: A time series and hierarchical clustering analysis

Background

Nonpharmaceutical interventions such as physical distancing and mandatory masking were adopted in many jurisdictions during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic to decrease spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). We determined the effects of these interventions on incidence of healthcare utilization for other infectious diseases.

Methods

Using a healthcare administrative dataset, we employed an interrupted time series analysis to measure changes in healthcare visits for various infectious diseases across the province of Ontario, Canada, from January 2017 to December 2020. We used a hierarchical clustering algorithm to group diagnoses that demonstrated similar patterns of change through the pandemic months.

Results

We found that visits for infectious diseases commonly caused by communicable respiratory pathogens (eg, acute bronchitis, acute sinusitis) formed distinct clusters from diagnoses that often originate from pathogens derived from the patient’s own flora (eg, urinary tract infection, cellulitis). Moreover, infectious diagnoses commonly arising from communicable respiratory pathogens (hierarchical cluster 1: highly impacted diagnoses) were significantly decreased, with a rate ratio (RR) of 0.35 (95% confidence interval [CI], .30–.40; P < .001) after the introduction of public health interventions in April–December 2020, whereas infections typically arising from the patient’s own flora (hierarchical cluster 3: minimally impacted diagnoses) did not demonstrate a sustained change in incidence (RR, 0.95 [95% CI, .90–1.01]; P = .085).

Conclusions

Public health measures to curtail the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 were widely effective against other communicable respiratory infectious diseases with similar modes of transmission but had little effect on infectious diseases not strongly dependent on person-to-person transmission.

Introducing the Escalation Antibiogram: A Simple Tool to Inform Changes in Empiric Antimicrobials in the Non-Responding Patient

BACKGROUND

Hospital antibiograms guide initial empiric antibiotic treatment selections, but do not directly inform escalation of treatment among non-responding patients.

METHODS

Using Gram-negative bacteremia (GNB) as an exemplar condition, we sought to introduce the concept of an Escalation Antibiogram. Among GNBs between 2017-2020 from six hospitals in the Greater Toronto Area, we generated escalation antibiograms for each of 12 commonly used agents. Among organisms resistant to that antibiotic, we calculated the likelihood of susceptibility to each of the other 11 agents. In subgroup analyses, we examined escalation antibiograms across study years, individual hospitals, community versus hospital onset, and pathogen type.

RESULTS

Among 6577 GNB episodes, the likelihood of coverage was: ampicillin 31.8%, cefazolin 62.7%, ceftriaxone 67.1%, piperacillin-tazobactam 72.5%, ceftazidime 74.1%, trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole 74.4%, ciprofloxacin 77.1%, tobramycin 88.3%, gentamicin 88.8%, ertapenem 91.0%, amikacin 97.5%, and meropenem 98.2%. The escalation antibiograms revealed marked shifts in likelihood of coverage by the remaining 11 agents. For example, among ceftriaxone-resistant isolates piperacillin-tazobactam susceptibility (21.2%) was significantly lower than trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (54.2%, p<0.0001), ciprofloxacin (63.0%, p<0.0001), ertapenem (73.4%, p<0.0001), tobramycin (80.1%, p<0.0001), gentamicin (82.8%, p<0.0001), meropenem (94.3%, p<0.0001), and amikacin (97.1%, p<0.0001). Trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole was the second ranked agent in the meropenem escalation antibiogram (49.6%), and first in the amikacin escalation antibiogram (86.0%). Escalation antibiograms were consistent across 4 study years and 6 hospitals.

CONCLUSION

Escalation antibiograms can be generated to inform empiric treatment changes in non-responding patients. These tools can yield important insights such as avoiding the common maneuver of escalating from ceftriaxone to piperacillin-tazobactam in suspected GNB.

SARS-CoV-2 detection from the built environment and wastewater and its use for hospital surveillance

Patients hospitalized with SARS-CoV-2 infections are major contributors to morbidity and mortality in health care settings. Our understanding of the distribution of this virus in the built health care environment and wastewater, and relationship to disease burden, is limited. We performed a prospective multi-center study of environmental sampling of SARS-CoV-2 from hospital surfaces and wastewater and evaluated their relationships with regional and hospital COVID-19 burden. We validated a qPCR-based approach to surface sampling and collected swab samples weekly from different locations and surfaces across two tertiary care hospital campuses for a 10-week period during the pandemic, along with wastewater samples. Over the 10-week period, 963 swab samples were collected and analyzed. We found 61 (6%) swabs positive for SARS-CoV-2, with the majority of these ( n = 51) originating from floor samples. Wards that actively managed patients with COVID-19 had the highest frequency of positive samples. Detection frequency in built environment swabs was significantly associated with active cases in the hospital throughout the study. Wastewater viral signal changes appeared to predate change in case burden. Our results indicate that environment sampling for SARS-CoV-2, in particular from floors, may offer a unique and resolved approach to surveillance of COVID-19.

A Randomized Double-Blind Placebo-Control Feasibility Trial of Immunoglobulin Treatment for Prevention of Recurrent Acute Exacerbations of COPD

Background

Observational studies suggest that immunoglobulin treatment may reduce the frequency of acute exacerbations of COPD (AECOPD).

Objective

To inform the design of a future randomised control trial (RCT) of intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) treatment efficacy for AECOPD prevention.

Methods

A pilot RCT was conducted. We recruited patients with COPD hospitalized for AECOPD, or from ambulatory clinics with one severe, or two moderate AECOPD in the previous year regardless of their serum IgG level. Patients were allocated in a 1:1 ratio with balanced randomisation to monthly IVIG or normal saline for 1 year. The primary outcome was feasibility defined as pre-specified accrual, adherence, and follow-up rates. Secondary outcomes included safety, tolerance, AECOPD rates, time to first AECOPD, quality of life, and healthcare costs.

Results

Seventy patients were randomized (37 female; mean age 67.7; mean FEV1 35.1%). Recruitment averaged 4.5±0.9 patients per month (range 0–8), 34 (49%) adhered to at least 80% of planned treatments, and four (5.7%) were lost to follow-up. There were 35 serious adverse events including seven deaths and one thromboembolism. None was related to IVIG. There were 56 and 48 moderate and severe AECOPD in the IVIG vs control groups. In patients with at least 80% treatment adherence, median time to first moderate or severe AECOPD was 275 vs 114 days, favoring the IVIG group (HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.3–1.92).

Conclusion

The study met feasibility criteria for recruitment and retention, but adherence was low. A trend toward more robust treatment efficacy in adherent patients supports further study, but future trials must address treatment adherence.

Trial registration number

NCT0290038, registered 24 February 2016, https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02690038 and NCT03018652, registered January 12, 2017, https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03018652.

Polymicrobial Clostridioides difficile lung empyema

Clostridioides (Clostridium) difficile is a well-known cause of enteritis and antibiotic-associated diarrhea. Extraintestinal C. difficile infection is uncommon, with most extraintestinal infections involving the intra-abdominal cavity and anatomic structures adjacent to the colon. Empyema secondary to C. difficile is especially rare, with only a handful of cases reported in the medical literature. A standard antibiotic treatment regimen for C. difficile empyema does not currently exist, and data chronicling successful treatment is limited. We present the case of an 80-year-old woman with a polymicrobial C. difficile empyema who was successfully treated with multiple chest tube insertions and intravenous vancomycin.

Evaluating the contributions of strategies to prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the healthcare setting: a modelling study

Background Since its onset, the COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant morbidity and mortality worldwide, with particularly severe outcomes in healthcare institutions and congregate settings. To mitigate spread, healthcare systems have been cohorting patients to limit contacts between uninfected patients and potentially infected patients or healthcare workers (HCWs). A major challenge in managing the pandemic is the presence of currently asymptomatic individuals capable of transmitting the virus, who could introduce COVID-19 into uninfected cohorts. The optimal combination of personal protective equipment (PPE) and testing approaches to prevent these events is unclear, especially in light of ongoing limitations in access to both. Methods Using stochastic simulations with an SEIR model we quantified and compared the impacts of PPE use, patient and HCWs testing, and cohorting. Findings In the base case without testing or PPE, the healthcare system was rapidly overwhelmed, and became a net contributor to the force of infection. We found that effective use of PPE by both HCWs and patients could prevent this scenario, while random testing of apparently asymptomatic individuals on a weekly basis was less effective. We also found that even imperfect use of PPE could provide substantial protection by decreasing the force of infection, and that creation of smaller patient/HCW subcohorts can provide additional resilience to outbreak development. Interpretation These findings reinforce the importance of ensuring adequate PPE supplies even in the absence of testing, and provide support for strict subcohorting regimens to reduce outbreak potential in healthcare institutions.

1605. Temperature Modulates the Rate of Increase of Antibiotic Resistance Across Europe

Background

Widely recognized as a major public health threat globally, the rapid increase of antibiotic resistance in bacteria could soon render our most effective method to combat infections obsolete. Factors influencing the burden of resistance in human populations remain poorly described, though temperature is known to play an important role in mechanisms of bacterial growth and transmission.

Methods

Here, we present the first evidence that ambient temperatures may modulate the rate of increase of antibiotic resistance across Europe. Using a comprehensive dataset containing information across 28 countries, for 17 years (2000–2016), 3 common bacterial pathogens, and 4 antibiotic classes collectively representing over 4 million tested isolates, we show that antibiotic resistance has increased more rapidly in warmer regions over a period of nearly 2 decades.

Results

Specifically, we show that European countries with 10°C warmer ambient temperatures have experienced more rapid increases in antibiotic resistance to E. coli and K. pneumoniae over the 17-year period, ranging between 0.33%/year (95% CI 0.2, 0.5) and 1.2%/year (0.4, 1.9), even after accounting for recognized drivers of resistance including antibiotic consumption and population density. We found a decreasing relationship for S. aureus and methicillin of -0.4%/year (95% CI −0.7, 0.0), reflecting widespread declines in MRSA across Europe over the study period.

Conclusion

Our findings suggest that rising temperatures globally may hasten the spread of resistance and complicate efforts to mitigate it.

Disclosures

All authors: No reported disclosures.

The association of adequate empirical treatment and time to recovery from bacteraemic urinary tract infections: a retrospective cohort study

Our objective was to evaluate whether patients with bacteraemic urinary tract infection (UTI) who receive inadequate empirical therapy have worse outcomes than those with adequate therapy. This was a retrospective cohort study of patients with bacteraemic UTI. The exposure variable was adequate versus inadequate empirical antibiotic therapy (AEAT versus IEAT) within 24 h of culture collection. Primary endpoint was time to cure. The primary analysis used propensity score models with inverse probability of treatment weights. A secondary Cox proportional hazards modelling approach was used to test the robustness of this finding, and to evaluate other patient and pathogen predictors of time to cure. Of 469 patients with bacteraemic UTI, 368 (78.5%) received AEAT. There was no significant difference in mortality between those receiving AEAT and those receiving IEAT (adjusted OR 0.86, 95%CI 0.47-1.58). Receipt of AEAT had no association with time to cure (HR 0.93, 95%CI 0.73-1.19, p 0.55) or time to normalization of individual clinical variables. Cox proportional hazards modelling revealed that longer time to cure was associated with liver disease (HR 0.25, 95%CI 0.08-0.76, p 0.015), prior stroke (HR 0.73, 95%CI 0.54-0.99, p 0.044), empirical receipt of piperacillin-tazobactam (HR 0.77, 95%CI 0.59-0.99, p 0.044), qSOFA score >1 (HR 0.68, 95%CI 0.55-0.84, p < 0.001), and hospital-onset UTI (HR 0.53, 95%CI 0.39-0.71, p < 0.001). In conclusion, we found no association between AEAT and time to cure for patients with bacteraemic UTI. It may be appropriate to accept a higher risk threshold when choosing empirical antibiotic regimens, even in centres with high rates of resistant uropathogens.

1165. Comparing Patient Risk Factors, Sequence Type, and Resistance Loci Identification Approaches for Predicting Antibiotic Resistance in Escherichia coli Bloodstream Infections

Background

To improve the adequacy of empiric antibiotic therapy, an important predictor of clinical outcome, rapid diagnostic tests of antibiotic resistance are increasingly being developed that identify the presence or absence of antibiotic resistance genes/Loci. Few approaches have utilized other sources of predictive information, which could be identified in shorter time periods, including patient epidemiologic risk factors for antibiotic resistance and markers of lineage (e.g., sequence type).

Methods

Using a dataset of 414 Escherichia coli isolated from separate episodes of bacteremia at a single academic institution in Toronto, Canada between 2010 and 2015, we compared the potential predictive ability of three approaches (epidemiologic, sequence type, and gene identification) for classifying antibiotic resistance to three commonly used classes of broad-spectrum antibiotic therapy (third-generation cephalosporins, fluoroquinolones, and aminoglycosides). We used logistic regression models with binary predictor variables to generate model receiver operating characteristic curves. Predictive discrimination was measured using apparent and corrected (bootstrapped) area under the curves (AUCs).

Results

Using two simple epidemiologic risk factors (prior antibiotic exposure and recent prior Gram-negative susceptibility), modest predictive discrimination was achieved (AUCs 0.65–0.74). Sequence type demonstrated strong discrimination (AUCs 0.84–0.94) across all three antibiotic classes. Epidemiologic risk factors significantly improved sequence-type prediction for cephalosporins and aminoglycosides (P &lt; 0.05). Gene identification approaches provided the highest degree of discrimination (AUCs 0.73–0.99), with no statistically significant benefit of adding epidemiologic predictors.

Conclusion

Rapid identification of sequence type, or other lineage-based classification, could produce excellent discrimination of antibiotic resistance, and may be improved by incorporating readily available epidemiologic predictors.

Disclosures

All authors: No reported disclosures.

Economic evaluation of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis strategies: protocol for a methodological systematic review and quantitative synthesis

BACKGROUND

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) with antiretrovirals is an efficacious and effective intervention to decrease the risk of HIV (human immunodeficiency virus) acquisition. Yet drug and delivery costs prohibit access in many jurisdictions. In the absence of guidelines for the synthesis of economic evaluations, we developed a protocol for a systematic review of economic evaluation studies for PrEP by drawing on best practices in systematic reviews and the conduct and reporting of economic evaluations. We aim to estimate the incremental cost per health outcome of PrEP compared with placebo, no PrEP, or other HIV prevention strategies; assess the methodological variability in, and quality of, economic evaluations of PrEP; estimate the incremental cost per health outcome of different PrEP implementation strategies; and quantify the potential sources of heterogeneity in outcomes.

METHODS

We will systematically search electronic databases (MEDLINE, Embase) and the gray literature. We will include economic evaluation studies that assess both costs and health outcomes of PrEP in HIV-uninfected individuals, without restricting language or year of publication. Two reviewers will independently screen studies using predefined inclusion criteria, extract data, and assess methodological quality using the Philips checklist, Second Panel on the Cost-effectiveness of Health and Medicines, and the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research recommendations. Outcomes of interest include incremental costs and outcomes in natural units or utilities, cost-effectiveness ratios, and net monetary benefit. We will perform descriptive and quantitative syntheses using sensitivity analyses of outcomes by population subgroups, HIV epidemic settings, study designs, baseline intervention contexts, key parameter inputs and assumptions, type of outcomes, economic perspectives, and willingness to pay values.

DISCUSSION

Findings will guide future economic evaluation of PrEP strategies in terms of methodological and knowledge gaps, and will inform decisions on the efficient integration of PrEP into public health programs across epidemiologic and health system contexts.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42016038440 .

Antibiotic Consumption and Antibiotic Resistance Across Organisms, Drugs, and Consumer Groups

Background

Antibiotic consumption is considered a major driver of antibiotic resistance, but it remains unclear whether the consumption–resistance relationship is apparent for many organisms and drugs, and whether aggregate consumption is the best predictor of resistance.

Methods

We conducted a landscape assessment of the consumption-resistance relationship by comparing a 20% sample of Medicare Part D outpatient antibiotic pharmacy claims with a nationwide survey of hospital antibiotic susceptibility reports. Antibiotic consumption was summarized in individual states and hospital-referral regions (HRRs) using traditional, aggregate consumption or by metrics that account for the concentration of consumption in a few individuals (Gini coefficient). The consumption–resistance relationships for 17 organism–drug combinations were simultaneously evaluated (Spearman’s rho; linear models predicting resistance from aggregate consumption and Gini coefficient) and corrected for multiple-hypothesis testing (Benjamini–Hochberg).

Results

We identified a significant correlation between aggregate consumption of an antibiotic and an organism’s reported resistance to that antibiotic in only a few cases: quinolones and E. coli (Spearman’s rho = 0.65, adjusted P < 10⁻⁴) and E. cloacae (rho = 0.50, adjusted P = 0.006). In other cases, notably E. coli with trimethoprim–sulfamethoxazole, the distribution of antibiotic consumption among consumers has a marginal relationship with antibiotic resistance (−1.0 p.p. resistance per p.p. Gini coefficient of consumption among consumers, unadjusted P < 0.001).

Conclusion

There is a clear correlation between aggregate consumption of an antibiotic and resistance of an organism to that antibiotic in only a few cases, suggesting that antibiotic steward efforts might maximize their effectiveness by focusing on particular organisms, drugs, and consumer groups rather than overall, aggregate consumption.

Disclosures

All authors: No reported disclosures.

Predictive utility of swab screening for vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus in selection of empiric antibiotics for Enterococcus sterile-site infections: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Swab screening for vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus (VRE) is used to identify VRE carriers and thus prevent transmission of this organism. We tested whether screening results could have unintended benefits in predicting the vancomycin susceptibility of subsequent Enterococcus infections experienced by these patients.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of all patients admitted to a large tertiary care hospital between 2010 and 2015 who underwent swab screening for VRE before experiencing an Enterococcus sterile-site infection. We derived test characteristics using the screening result as the test variable predicting the presence or absence of vancomycin resistance in the sterile-site Enterococcus species.

RESULTS

Culture results for sterile-site samples were positive for Enterococcus for 619 patients during the study period. Of these, 488 (79%) had previously undergone VRE screening. A total of 19 (4%) of the 488 screening results were positive for VRE, and 10 (2%) of the sterile-site Enterococcus isolates were resistant to vancomycin. The overall specificity of VRE swabs was 97% (95% confidence interval [CI] 96%-99%), sensitivity was 70% (95% CI 35%-93%), the positive likelihood ratio was 28 (95% CI 14-56), and the negative likelihood ratio was 0.31 (95% CI 0.12-0.79). The post-test probability of vancomycin resistance in a sterile-site culture, given a positive result with VRE screening swab, was 37% using study data and 83% using published aggregate prevalence data for VRE in the United States.

INTERPRETATION

Prior VRE screening swab results represent a useful tool for predicting vancomycin resistance in sterile-site Enterococcus infections. Patients with a positive result for VRE screening swab and Enterococcus identified by culture of sterile-site samples should receive empiric treatment with linezolid or daptomycin until sensitivity results are available.

Assessment of the potential for international dissemination of Ebola virus via commercial air travel during the 2014 west African outbreak

BACKGROUND

The WHO declared the 2014 west African Ebola epidemic a public health emergency of international concern in view of its potential for further international spread. Decision makers worldwide are in need of empirical data to inform and implement emergency response measures. Our aim was to assess the potential for Ebola virus to spread across international borders via commercial air travel and assess the relative efficiency of exit versus entry screening of travellers at commercial airports.

METHODS

We analysed International Air Transport Association data for worldwide flight schedules between Sept 1, 2014, and Dec 31, 2014, and historic traveller flight itinerary data from 2013 to describe expected global population movements via commercial air travel out of Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. Coupled with Ebola virus surveillance data, we modelled the expected number of internationally exported Ebola virus infections, the potential effect of air travel restrictions, and the efficiency of airport-based traveller screening at international ports of entry and exit. We deemed individuals initiating travel from any domestic or international airport within these three countries to have possible exposure to Ebola virus. We deemed all other travellers to have no significant risk of exposure to Ebola virus.

FINDINGS

Based on epidemic conditions and international flight restrictions to and from Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone as of Sept 1, 2014 (reductions in passenger seats by 51% for Liberia, 66% for Guinea, and 85% for Sierra Leone), our model projects 2.8 travellers infected with Ebola virus departing the above three countries via commercial flights, on average, every month. 91,547 (64%) of all air travellers departing Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone had expected destinations in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. Screening international travellers departing three airports would enable health assessments of all travellers at highest risk of exposure to Ebola virus infection.

INTERPRETATION

Decision makers must carefully balance the potential harms from travel restrictions imposed on countries that have Ebola virus activity against any potential reductions in risk from Ebola virus importations. Exit screening of travellers at airports in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone would be the most efficient frontier at which to assess the health status of travellers at risk of Ebola virus exposure, however, this intervention might require international support to implement effectively.

FUNDING

Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

Development of a geometrically accurate imaging protocol at 3 Tesla MRI for stereotactic radiosurgery treatment planning

The purpose of this study is to develop a geometrically accurate imaging protocol at 3 T magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) treatment planning. In order to achieve this purpose, a methodology is developed to investigate the geometric accuracy and stability of 3 T MRI for SRS in phantom and patient evaluations. Forty patients were enrolled on a prospective clinical trial. After frame placement prior to SRS, each patient underwent 3 T MRI after 1.5 T MRI and CT. MR imaging protocols included a T1-weighted gradient echo sequence and a T2-weighted spin echo sequence. Phantom imaging was performed on 3 T prior to patient imaging using the same set-up and imaging protocols. Geometric accuracy in patients and phantoms yielded comparable results for external fiducial reference deviations and internal landmarks between 3 T and 1.5 T MRI (mean ≤ 0.6 mm; standard deviation ≤ 0.3 mm). Mean stereotactic reference deviations between phantoms and patients correlated well (T1: R = 0.79; T2: R = 0.84). Statistical process control analysis on phantom QA data demonstrated the stability of our SRS imaging protocols, where the geometric accuracy of the 3 T SRS imaging protocol is operating within the appropriate tolerance. Our data provide evidence supporting the spatial validity of 3 T MRI for targeting SRS under imaging conditions investigated. We have developed a systematic approach to achieve confidence on the geometric integrity of a given imaging system/technique for clinical integration in SRS application.

Ongoing high-risk sexual behaviors in relation recreational drug use in sexual encounters. Analysis of 5 years of data from the Toronto Sexual Contact Study

The current study investigated the association between the use of recreational drugs at the time of sexual activity and high-risk sexual behavior in a Toronto cohort of 249 homosexual and bisexual men over a 5-year period commencing in 1984 to 1985 and concluding in 1989 to 1990. The main analysis was based on a total of 2536 visits. Univariate and multivariate Liang-Zeger regression models were used to relate the log of the sexual activity score (SARS) to the independent variables over the 20 follow-up visits while controlling for intercorrelations between variables from the same respondent. We found that there was a significant decline, over time, in the sexual activities that pose a higher risk of infection with human immunodeficiency virus. Recreational drugs still appear to be playing an important role in the continuation of higher-risk sexual activities. The use of poppers in conjunction with sex is a strong predictor of high-risk activity, as is use of alcohol and marijuana in conjunction with sex. Also, simultaneously strongly associated with higher-risk score is the Centers for Disease Control classification II. More emphasis needs to be placed on educating the population about the potential risks of combining reactional drugs with sexual activity.

Aerosol pentamidine for secondary prophylaxis of AIDS-related Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia. A randomized, placebo-controlled study

OBJECTIVE

To assess the safety and efficacy of aerosol pentamidine for secondary prophylaxis of Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia in patients with the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS).

PARTICIPANTS

Patients recovering from a first confirmed episode of AIDS-related P. carinii pneumonia who had no evidence of either another active AIDS-defining opportunistic infection or another pulmonary abnormality were considered eligible for the study but were included only if they had received no immunomodulators or antiretroviral agents other than zidovudine within 30 days of entry. One hundred sixty-two patients were randomized and started on the study drug.

INTERVENTION

Patients were randomly assigned to receive aerosol pentamidine, 60 mg per dose, or placebo, delivered using a hand-held, patient-triggered, ultrasonic nebulizer. The induction phase of treatment consisted of 5 doses over 14 days, followed by a maintenance phase beginning on day 21 and consisting of one dose every 2 weeks.

RESULTS

Thirty-two cases of P. carinii pneumonia were diagnosed before the termination of the trial; 27 cases occurred among 78 patients receiving placebo and 5 occurred among 84 patients receiving aerosol pentamidine. Estimates of the cumulative relapse rate of P. carinii pneumonia by 24 weeks were 50% and 9% for the placebo and pentamidine groups, respectively (P less than 0.001). Adverse reactions attributed to the study drug occurred in 15 of 78 patients receiving placebo and in 28 of 84 patients receiving pentamidine (P = 0.04). These were all mild or moderate in severity and did not preclude continued administration of the study drug.

CONCLUSION

Intermittent therapy with aerosol pentamidine is highly effective and well tolerated as secondary prophylaxis for AIDS-related P. carinii pneumonia.

Comparison of saliva and blood for human immunodeficiency virus prevalence testing

Testing saliva for the detection of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) antibodies has many potential advantages for epidemiologic surveillance. A commercial ELISA kit and a standardized in-house immunoblot (IB) system were slightly modified to enhance antibody detection in saliva. Frozen saliva specimens from Toronto Sexual Contact Study participants (including sequential saliva specimens collected during seroconversion) were tested as were fresh saliva samples collected from a population of street-based intravenous drug users (IVDUs). HIV antibody results on saliva were compared with HIV serostatus determined by ELISA and IB on serum or dried blood spots. The overall sensitivity was 98.3% (117/119) for the kit and 99.2% (118/119) for IB; the specificity was 100% (429/429). In the IVDU population, compliance in the voluntary submission of specimens increased from 69% agreeing to provide blood samples to 89% agreeing to provide blood, saliva, or both. Saliva specimens can be easily collected under difficult field conditions with minimal training and provide a valuable alternative to testing blood for HIV-seroprevalence studies.