1
|
Wen B, Wu Y, Guo Y, Gasparrini A, Tong S, Overcenco A, Urban A, Schneider A, Entezari A, Vicedo-Cabrera AM, Zanobetti A, Analitis A, Zeka A, Tobias A, Nunes B, Alahmad B, Armstrong B, Forsberg B, Pan SC, Íñiguez C, Ameling C, Valencia CDLC, Åström C, Houthuijs D, Van Dung D, Royé D, Indermitte E, Lavigne E, Mayvaneh F, Acquaotta F, de'Donato F, Rao S, Sera F, Carrasco-Escobar G, Kan H, Orru H, Kim H, Holobaca IH, Kyselý J, Madureira J, Schwartz J, Jaakkola JJK, Katsouyanni K, Diaz MH, Ragettli MS, Hashizume M, Pascal M, Coélho MDSZS, Ortega NV, Ryti N, Scovronick N, Michelozzi P, Matus Correa P, Goodman P, Saldiva PHN, Raz R, Abrutzky R, Osorio S, Dang TN, Colistro V, Huber V, Lee W, Seposo X, Honda Y, Kim Y, Guo YL, Bell ML, Li S. Comparison for the effects of different components of temperature variability on mortality: A multi-country time-series study. Environ Int 2024; 187:108712. [PMID: 38714028 DOI: 10.1016/j.envint.2024.108712] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/23/2023] [Revised: 04/27/2024] [Accepted: 04/28/2024] [Indexed: 05/09/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Temperature variability (TV) is associated with increased mortality risk. However, it is still unknown whether intra-day or inter-day TV has different effects. OBJECTIVES We aimed to assess the association of intra-day TV and inter-day TV with all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. METHODS We collected data on total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality and meteorology from 758 locations in 47 countries or regions from 1972 to 2020. We defined inter-day TV as the standard deviation (SD) of daily mean temperatures across the lag interval, and intra-day TV as the average SD of minimum and maximum temperatures on each day. In the first stage, inter-day and intra-day TVs were modelled simultaneously in the quasi-Poisson time-series model for each location. In the second stage, a multi-level analysis was used to pool the location-specific estimates. RESULTS Overall, the mortality risk due to each interquartile range [IQR] increase was higher for intra-day TV than for inter-day TV. The risk increased by 0.59% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.53, 0.65) for all-cause mortality, 0.64% (95% CI: 0.56, 0.73) for cardiovascular mortality, and 0.65% (95% CI: 0.49, 0.80) for respiratory mortality per IQR increase in intra-day TV0-7 (0.9 °C). An IQR increase in inter-day TV0-7 (1.6 °C) was associated with 0.22% (95% CI: 0.18, 0.26) increase in all-cause mortality, 0.44% (95% CI: 0.37, 0.50) increase in cardiovascular mortality, and 0.31% (95% CI: 0.21, 0.41) increase in respiratory mortality. The proportion of all-cause deaths attributable to intra-day TV0-7 and inter-day TV0-7 was 1.45% and 0.35%, respectively. The mortality risks varied by lag interval, climate area, season, and climate type. CONCLUSIONS Our results indicated that intra-day TV may explain the main part of the mortality risk related to TV and suggested that comprehensive evaluations should be proposed in more countries to help protect human health.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Bo Wen
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Yao Wu
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Yuming Guo
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia.
| | - Antonio Gasparrini
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre for Statistical Methodology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre on Climate Change & Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Shilu Tong
- Shanghai Children's Medical Centre, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China; School of Public Health, Institute of Environment and Population Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China; Center for Global Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China; School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Ala Overcenco
- National Agency for Public Health of the Ministry of Health, Labour and Social Protection of the Republic of Moldova, Republic of Moldova
| | - Aleš Urban
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic; Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Alexandra Schneider
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München - German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Alireza Entezari
- Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran
| | - Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Antonella Zanobetti
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Antonis Analitis
- Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece
| | - Ariana Zeka
- Institute for Environment, Health and Societies, Brunel University London, London, UK
| | - Aurelio Tobias
- Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, Spanish Council for Scientific Research, Barcelona, Spain; School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
| | - Baltazar Nunes
- Department of Epidemiology, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge, Porto, Portugal; Centro de Investigação em Saúde Pública, Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Barrak Alahmad
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Ben Armstrong
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Bertil Forsberg
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Shih-Chun Pan
- National Institute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan
| | - Carmen Íñiguez
- Department of Statistics and Computational Research, Universitat de València, València, Spain; CIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health, Madrid, Spain
| | - Caroline Ameling
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Centre for Sustainability and Environmental Health, Bilthoven, Netherlands
| | | | - Christofer Åström
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Danny Houthuijs
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Centre for Sustainability and Environmental Health, Bilthoven, Netherlands
| | - Do Van Dung
- Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam
| | - Dominic Royé
- CIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health, Madrid, Spain; Department of Geography, University of Santiago de Compostela, Santiago de Compostela, Spain
| | - Ene Indermitte
- Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
| | - Eric Lavigne
- School of Epidemiology & Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada; Air Health Science Division, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada
| | - Fatemeh Mayvaneh
- Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran
| | | | | | - Shilpa Rao
- Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway
| | - Francesco Sera
- Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications "G. Parenti", University of Florence, Florence, Italy
| | - Gabriel Carrasco-Escobar
- Health Innovation Lab, Institute of Tropical Medicine "Alexander von Humboldt", Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru; Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA
| | - Haidong Kan
- Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Hans Orru
- Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
| | - Ho Kim
- Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
| | | | - Jan Kyselý
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic; Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Joana Madureira
- Environmental Health Department, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge, Porto, Portugal; EPIUnit - Instituto de Saúde Pública, Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal; Laboratório para a Investigação Integrativa e Translacional em Saúde Populacional (ITR), Porto, Portugal
| | - Joel Schwartz
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Jouni J K Jaakkola
- Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland; Medical Research Center Oulu (MRC Oulu), Oulu University Hospital and University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
| | - Klea Katsouyanni
- Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece; School of Population Health and Environmental Sciences, King's College London, London, UK
| | - Magali Hurtado Diaz
- Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca Morelos, Mexico
| | - Martina S Ragettli
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Masahiro Hashizume
- Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Mathilde Pascal
- Santé Publique France, Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, French National Public Health Agency, Saint Maurice, France
| | | | | | - Niilo Ryti
- Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland; Medical Research Center Oulu (MRC Oulu), Oulu University Hospital and University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
| | - Noah Scovronick
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Paola Michelozzi
- Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome, Italy
| | | | - Patrick Goodman
- School of Physics, Technological University Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
| | | | - Raanan Raz
- Braun School of Public Health and Community Medicine, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel
| | - Rosana Abrutzky
- Universidad de Buenos Aires, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Instituto de Investigaciones Gino Germani, Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Samuel Osorio
- Department of Environmental Health, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Tran Ngoc Dang
- Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam
| | - Valentina Colistro
- Department of Quantitative Methods, School of Medicine, University of the Republic, Montevideo, Uruguay
| | - Veronika Huber
- IBE-Chair of Epidemiology, LMU Munich, Munich, Germany; Department of Physical, Chemical and Natural Systems, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Sevilla, Spain
| | - Whanhee Lee
- School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA; Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, School of Medicine, Ewha Womans University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Xerxes Seposo
- School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
| | - Yasushi Honda
- Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Yoonhee Kim
- Department of Global Environmental Health, Graduate School of Medicine, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Yue Leon Guo
- National Institute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan; Environmental and Occupational Medicine, National Taiwan University College of Medicine and NTU Hospital, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; Graduate Institute of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, National Taiwan University College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Michelle L Bell
- School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Shanshan Li
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia.
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Kapwata T, Abdelatif N, Scovronick N, Gebreslasie MT, Acquaotta F, Wright CY. Identifying heat thresholds for South Africa towards the development of a heat-health warning system. Int J Biometeorol 2024; 68:381-392. [PMID: 38157021 PMCID: PMC10794383 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-023-02596-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/07/2022] [Revised: 11/30/2023] [Accepted: 12/05/2023] [Indexed: 01/03/2024]
Abstract
Exposure to heatwaves may result in adverse human health impacts. Heat alerts in South Africa are currently based on defined temperature-fixed threshold values for large towns and cities. However, heat-health warning systems (HHWS) should incorporate metrics that have been shown to be effective predictors of negative heat-related health outcomes. This study contributes to the development of a HHWS for South Africa that can potentially minimize heat-related mortality. Distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNM) were used to assess the association between maximum and minimum temperature and diurnal temperature range (DTR) and population-adjusted mortality during summer months, and the effects were presented as incidence rate ratios (IRR). District-level thresholds for the best predictor from these three metrics were estimated with threshold regression. The mortality dataset contained records of daily registered deaths (n = 8,476,532) from 1997 to 2013 and data for the temperature indices were for the same period. Maximum temperature appeared to be the most statistically significant predictor of all-cause mortality with strong associations observed in 40 out of 52 districts. Maximum temperature was associated with increased risk of mortality in all but three of the districts. Our results also found that heat-related mortality was influenced by regional climate because the spatial distribution of the thresholds varied according to the climate zones across the country. On average, districts located in the hot, arid interior provinces of the Northern Cape and North West experienced some of the highest thresholds compared to districts located in temperate interior or coastal provinces. As the effects of climate change become more significant, population exposure to heat is increasing. Therefore, evidence-based HHWS are required to reduce heat-related mortality and morbidity. The exceedance of the maximum temperature thresholds provided in this study could be used to issue heat alerts as part of effective heat health action plans.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Thandi Kapwata
- Environment and Health Research Unit, South African Medical Research Council, Johannesburg, 2028, South Africa.
- Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 0028, South Africa.
| | - Nada Abdelatif
- Biostatistics Research Unit, South African Medical Research Council, Durban, 4001, South Africa
| | - Noah Scovronick
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, 30322, USA
| | - Michael T Gebreslasie
- School of Agriculture, Earth, and Environmental Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, 3629, South Africa
| | | | - Caradee Y Wright
- Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 0028, South Africa
- Environment and Health Research Unit, South African Medical Research Council, Pretoria, 0084, South Africa
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Alahmad B, Khraishah H, Royé D, Vicedo-Cabrera AM, Guo Y, Papatheodorou SI, Achilleos S, Acquaotta F, Armstrong B, Bell ML, Pan SC, de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho M, Colistro V, Dang TN, Van Dung D, De’ Donato FK, Entezari A, Guo YLL, Hashizume M, Honda Y, Indermitte E, Íñiguez C, Jaakkola JJ, Kim H, Lavigne E, Lee W, Li S, Madureira J, Mayvaneh F, Orru H, Overcenco A, Ragettli MS, Ryti NR, Saldiva PHN, Scovronick N, Seposo X, Sera F, Silva SP, Stafoggia M, Tobias A, Garshick E, Bernstein AS, Zanobetti A, Schwartz J, Gasparrini A, Koutrakis P. Associations Between Extreme Temperatures and Cardiovascular Cause-Specific Mortality: Results From 27 Countries. Circulation 2023; 147:35-46. [PMID: 36503273 PMCID: PMC9794133 DOI: 10.1161/circulationaha.122.061832] [Citation(s) in RCA: 52] [Impact Index Per Article: 52.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/24/2022] [Accepted: 09/29/2022] [Indexed: 12/14/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death worldwide. Existing studies on the association between temperatures and cardiovascular deaths have been limited in geographic zones and have generally considered associations with total cardiovascular deaths rather than cause-specific cardiovascular deaths. METHODS We used unified data collection protocols within the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Network to assemble a database of daily counts of specific cardiovascular causes of death from 567 cities in 27 countries across 5 continents in overlapping periods ranging from 1979 to 2019. City-specific daily ambient temperatures were obtained from weather stations and climate reanalysis models. To investigate cardiovascular mortality associations with extreme hot and cold temperatures, we fit case-crossover models in each city and then used a mixed-effects meta-analytic framework to pool individual city estimates. Extreme temperature percentiles were compared with the minimum mortality temperature in each location. Excess deaths were calculated for a range of extreme temperature days. RESULTS The analyses included deaths from any cardiovascular cause (32 154 935), ischemic heart disease (11 745 880), stroke (9 351 312), heart failure (3 673 723), and arrhythmia (670 859). At extreme temperature percentiles, heat (99th percentile) and cold (1st percentile) were associated with higher risk of dying from any cardiovascular cause, ischemic heart disease, stroke, and heart failure as compared to the minimum mortality temperature, which is the temperature associated with least mortality. Across a range of extreme temperatures, hot days (above 97.5th percentile) and cold days (below 2.5th percentile) accounted for 2.2 (95% empirical CI [eCI], 2.1-2.3) and 9.1 (95% eCI, 8.9-9.2) excess deaths for every 1000 cardiovascular deaths, respectively. Heart failure was associated with the highest excess deaths proportion from extreme hot and cold days with 2.6 (95% eCI, 2.4-2.8) and 12.8 (95% eCI, 12.2-13.1) for every 1000 heart failure deaths, respectively. CONCLUSIONS Across a large, multinational sample, exposure to extreme hot and cold temperatures was associated with a greater risk of mortality from multiple common cardiovascular conditions. The intersections between extreme temperatures and cardiovascular health need to be thoroughly characterized in the present day-and especially under a changing climate.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Barrak Alahmad
- Environmental Health Department (B.Alahmad, A.Z., J.S., P.K.), Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA
- Environmental and Occupational Health Department, Faculty of Public Health, Kuwait University, Kuwait City (B.Alahmad)
| | - Haitham Khraishah
- Cardiology Division, University of Maryland Medical Center, University of Maryland, Baltimore (H.Khraishah)
| | - Dominic Royé
- Department of Geography, University of Santiago de Compostela, Spain (D.R.)
| | - Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine (A.M.V-C.)
- Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Switzerland (A.M.V-C.)
- Department of Public Health Environments and Society (A.M.V-C., B.Armstrong), London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK
| | - Yuming Guo
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia (Y.G., S.L.)
| | | | - Souzana Achilleos
- School of Health Sciences, Cyprus University of Technology, Limassol (S.A.)
- Department of Primary Care and Population Health, University of Nicosia Medical School, Cyprus (S.A.)
| | | | - Ben Armstrong
- Department of Public Health Environments and Society (A.M.V-C., B.Armstrong), London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK
| | - Michelle L. Bell
- School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT (M.L.B., W.L.)
| | - Shih-Chun Pan
- National Institute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan (S-C.P., Y-L.L.G.)
| | | | - Valentina Colistro
- Department of Quantitative Methods, School of Medicine, University of the Republic, Montevideo, Uruguay (V.C.)
| | - Tran Ngoc Dang
- Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam (T.N.D., D.V.D.)
| | - Do Van Dung
- Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam (T.N.D., D.V.D.)
| | | | - Alireza Entezari
- Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran (A.E., F.M.)
| | - Yue-Liang Leon Guo
- National Institute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan (S-C.P., Y-L.L.G.)
| | - Masahiro Hashizume
- Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, University of Tokyo, Japan (M.H.)
| | - Yasushi Honda
- Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan (Y.H.)
| | - Ene Indermitte
- Department of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Estonia (E.I., H.O.)
| | - Carmen Íñiguez
- CIBER de Epidemiología y Salud Pública, Madrid, Spain (D.R., C.Í.)
- Department of Statistics and Computational Research, Universitat de València, Spain (C.Í.)
| | - Jouni J.K. Jaakkola
- Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (J.J.K.J.), University of Oulu, Finland
- Medical Research Center Oulu (J.J.K.J.), University of Oulu, Finland
- Biocenter Oulu (N.R.I.R., J.J.K.J.), University of Oulu, Finland
| | - Ho Kim
- Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, South Korea (H.Kim)
| | - Eric Lavigne
- School of Epidemiology and Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Canada (E.L.)
| | - Whanhee Lee
- School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT (M.L.B., W.L.)
- School of Biomedical Engineering, College of Information and Biomedical Engineering, Pusan National University, Yangsan, South Korea (W.L.)
| | - Shanshan Li
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia (Y.G., S.L.)
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia (S.L.)
| | - Joana Madureira
- Department of Environmental Health, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge, Porto, Portugal (J.M.)
- Epidemiology Research Unit (EPIUnit) (J.M.), Instituto de Saúde Pública, Universidade do Porto, Portugal
- Laboratory for Integrative and Translational Research in Population Health (J.M.), Instituto de Saúde Pública, Universidade do Porto, Portugal
| | - Fatemeh Mayvaneh
- Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran (A.E., F.M.)
| | - Hans Orru
- Department of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Estonia (E.I., H.O.)
| | - Ala Overcenco
- Laboratory of Management in Science and Public Health, National Agency for Public Health of the Ministry of Health, Chisinau, Moldova (A.O.)
| | - Martina S. Ragettli
- Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (M.S.R.), Switzerland
- University of Basel (M.S.R.), Switzerland
| | - Niilo R.I. Ryti
- Biocenter Oulu (N.R.I.R., J.J.K.J.), University of Oulu, Finland
| | | | - Noah Scovronick
- Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA (N.S.)
| | - Xerxes Seposo
- School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Japan (X.S., A.T.)
| | - Francesco Sera
- Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications G. Parenti, University of Florence, Italy (F.S.)
| | - Susana Pereira Silva
- Department of Epidemiology, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge, Lisboa, Portugal (S.P.S.)
| | - Massimo Stafoggia
- Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome, Italy (F.K.D’D., M.S.)
| | - Aurelio Tobias
- School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Japan (X.S., A.T.)
- Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, Spanish Council for Scientific Research, Barcelona (A.T.)
| | - Eric Garshick
- Pulmonary, Allergy, Sleep and Critical Care Medicine Section, Department of Medicine, Veterans Affairs Boston Healthcare System, Harvard Medical School, West Roxbury, MA (E.G.)
- Channing Division of Network Medicine, Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women’s Hospital (E.G.), Harvard Medical School, MA
| | - Aaron S. Bernstein
- Center for Climate, Health and the Global Environment (A.S.B.), Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA
- Department of Pediatrics, Boston Children’s Hospital (A.S.B.), Harvard Medical School, MA
| | - Antonella Zanobetti
- Environmental Health Department (B.Alahmad, A.Z., J.S., P.K.), Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA
| | - Joel Schwartz
- Environmental Health Department (B.Alahmad, A.Z., J.S., P.K.), Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA
| | - Antonio Gasparrini
- Centre for Statistical Methodology (A.G.), London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health (A.G.), London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK
| | - Petros Koutrakis
- Environmental Health Department (B.Alahmad, A.Z., J.S., P.K.), Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA
| |
Collapse
|
4
|
Choi HM, Lee W, Roye D, Heo S, Urban A, Entezari A, Vicedo-Cabrera AM, Zanobetti A, Gasparrini A, Analitis A, Tobias A, Armstrong B, Forsberg B, Íñiguez C, Åström C, Sheng Ng CF, Indermitte E, Lavigne E, Mayvaneh F, Acquaotta F, Sera F, Orru H, Kim H, Kyselý J, Madueira J, Schwartz J, Jaakkola JJK, Katsouyanni K, Diaz MH, Ragettli MS, Hashizume M, Pascal M, Ryti N, Scovronick N, Osorio S, Tong S, Seposo X, Honda Y, Kim Y, Guo YL, Guo Y, Bell ML. Corrigendum to "Effect modification of greenness on the association between heat and mortality: A multi-city multi-country study". EBioMedicine 2023; 87:104396. [PMID: 36463754 PMCID: PMC9720512 DOI: 10.1016/j.ebiom.2022.104396] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/03/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
| | - Whanhee Lee
- School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Dominic Roye
- Department of Geography, University of Santiago de Compostela, Santiago de Compostela, Spain
| | - Seulkee Heo
- School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Aleš Urban
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic; Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Alireza Entezari
- Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Khorasan Razavi, Iran
| | | | - Antonella Zanobetti
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Antonio Gasparrini
- Department of Public Health Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre for Statistical Methodology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Antonis Analitis
- Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Greece
| | - Aurelio Tobias
- Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDAEA), Spanish Council for Scientific Research (CSIC), Barcelona, Spain; School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
| | - Ben Armstrong
- Department of Public Health Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Bertil Forsberg
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Sweden
| | - Carmen Íñiguez
- Department of Statistics and Computational Research, Universitat de València, València, Spain
| | - Christofer Åström
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Sweden
| | - Chris Fook Sheng Ng
- School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan; Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Ene Indermitte
- Department of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
| | - Eric Lavigne
- School of Epidemiology and Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada; Air Health Science Division, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada
| | - Fatemeh Mayvaneh
- Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Khorasan Razavi, Iran
| | | | - Francesco Sera
- Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications "G. Parenti", University of Florence, Florence, Italy
| | - Hans Orru
- Department of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
| | - Ho Kim
- Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Jan Kyselý
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic; Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic; Global Change Research Institute, Czech Academy of Sciences, Brno, Czech Republic
| | - Joana Madueira
- Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Health Dr Ricardo Jorge, Lisbon, Portugal; EPI Unit, Institute of Public Health, University of Porto, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Joel Schwartz
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Jouni J K Jaakkola
- Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
| | - Klea Katsouyanni
- Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Greece
| | - Magali Hurtado Diaz
- Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico
| | - Martina S Ragettli
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Masahiro Hashizume
- School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan; Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Mathilde Pascal
- Department of Environmental Health, French National Public Health Agency, Public Health France, Saint Maurice, France
| | - Niilo Ryti
- Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
| | - Noah Scovronick
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Samuel Osorio
- Institute of Advanced Studies, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Shilu Tong
- Shanghai Children's Medical Centre, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China; School of Public Health, Institute of Environment and Population Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China; Center for Global Health, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China; School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Xerxes Seposo
- School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
| | - Yasushi Honda
- School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan; Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan; Faculty of Health and Sport Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Yoonhee Kim
- Department of Global Environmental Health, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Yue-Liang Guo
- National Taiwan University and National Taiwan University Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan; National Institute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan
| | - Yuming Guo
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Michelle L Bell
- School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| |
Collapse
|
5
|
Choi HM, Lee W, Roye D, Heo S, Urban A, Entezari A, Vicedo-Cabrera AM, Zanobetti A, Gasparrini A, Analitis A, Tobias A, Armstrong B, Forsberg B, Íñiguez C, Åström C, Indermitte E, Lavigne E, Mayvaneh F, Acquaotta F, Sera F, Orru H, Kim H, Kyselý J, Madueira J, Schwartz J, Jaakkola JJK, Katsouyanni K, Diaz MH, Ragettli MS, Pascal M, Ryti N, Scovronick N, Osorio S, Tong S, Seposo X, Guo YL, Guo Y, Bell ML. Effect modification of greenness on the association between heat and mortality: A multi-city multi-country study. EBioMedicine 2022; 84:104251. [PMID: 36088684 PMCID: PMC9471476 DOI: 10.1016/j.ebiom.2022.104251] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/20/2022] [Revised: 07/29/2022] [Accepted: 08/17/2022] [Indexed: 01/21/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Identifying how greenspace impacts the temperature-mortality relationship in urban environments is crucial, especially given climate change and rapid urbanization. However, the effect modification of greenspace on heat-related mortality has been typically focused on a localized area or single country. This study examined the heat-mortality relationship among different greenspace levels in a global setting. METHODS We collected daily ambient temperature and mortality data for 452 locations in 24 countries and used Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) as the greenspace measurement. We used distributed lag non-linear model to estimate the heat-mortality relationship in each city and the estimates were pooled adjusting for city-specific average temperature, city-specific temperature range, city-specific population density, and gross domestic product (GDP). The effect modification of greenspace was evaluated by comparing the heat-related mortality risk for different greenspace groups (low, medium, and high), which were divided into terciles among 452 locations. FINDINGS Cities with high greenspace value had the lowest heat-mortality relative risk of 1·19 (95% CI: 1·13, 1·25), while the heat-related relative risk was 1·46 (95% CI: 1·31, 1·62) for cities with low greenspace when comparing the 99th temperature and the minimum mortality temperature. A 20% increase of greenspace is associated with a 9·02% (95% CI: 8·88, 9·16) decrease in the heat-related attributable fraction, and if this association is causal (which is not within the scope of this study to assess), such a reduction could save approximately 933 excess deaths per year in 24 countries. INTERPRETATION Our findings can inform communities on the potential health benefits of greenspaces in the urban environment and mitigation measures regarding the impacts of climate change. FUNDING This publication was developed under Assistance Agreement No. RD83587101 awarded by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to Yale University. It has not been formally reviewed by EPA. The views expressed in this document are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Agency. EPA does not endorse any products or commercial services mentioned in this publication. Research reported in this publication was also supported by the National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities of the National Institutes of Health under Award Number R01MD012769. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health. Also, this work has been supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (2021R1A6A3A03038675), Medical Research Council-UK (MR/V034162/1 and MR/R013349/1), Natural Environment Research Council UK (Grant ID: NE/R009384/1), Academy of Finland (Grant ID: 310372), European Union's Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion (Grant ID: 820655 and 874990), Czech Science Foundation (22-24920S), Emory University's NIEHS-funded HERCULES Center (Grant ID: P30ES019776), and Grant CEX2018-000794-S funded by MCIN/AEI/ 10.13039/501100011033 The funders had no role in the design, data collection, analysis, interpretation of results, manuscript writing, or decision to publication.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
| | - Whanhee Lee
- School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Dominic Roye
- Department of Geography, University of Santiago de Compostela, Santiago de Compostela, Spain
| | - Seulkee Heo
- School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Aleš Urban
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic; Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Alireza Entezari
- Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar Khorasan Razavi, Iran
| | | | - Antonella Zanobetti
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Antonio Gasparrini
- Department of Public Health Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre for Statistical Methodology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Antonis Analitis
- Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Greece
| | - Aurelio Tobias
- Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDAEA), Spanish Council for Scientific Research (CSIC), Barcelona, Spain; School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
| | - Ben Armstrong
- Department of Public Health Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Bertil Forsberg
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Sweden
| | - Carmen Íñiguez
- Department of Statistics and Computational Research, Universitat de València, València, Spain
| | - Christofer Åström
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Sweden
| | - Ene Indermitte
- Department of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
| | - Eric Lavigne
- School of Epidemiology and Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada; Air Health Science Division, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada
| | - Fatemeh Mayvaneh
- Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar Khorasan Razavi, Iran
| | | | - Francesco Sera
- Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications "G. Parenti", University of Florence, Florence, Italy
| | - Hans Orru
- Department of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
| | - Ho Kim
- Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Jan Kyselý
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic; Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic; Global Change Research Institute, Czech Academy of Sciences, Brno, Czech Republic
| | - Joana Madueira
- Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Health Dr Ricardo Jorge, Lisbon, Portugal; EPI Unit, Institute of Public Health, University of Porto, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Joel Schwartz
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Jouni J K Jaakkola
- Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
| | - Klea Katsouyanni
- Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Greece
| | - Magali Hurtado Diaz
- Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico
| | - Martina S Ragettli
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Mathilde Pascal
- Department of Environmental Health, French National Public Health Agency, Public Health France, Saint Maurice, France
| | - Niilo Ryti
- Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
| | - Noah Scovronick
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Samuel Osorio
- Institute of Advanced Studies, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Shilu Tong
- Shanghai Children's Medical Centre, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China; School of Public Health, Institute of Environment and Population Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China; Center for Global Health, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China; School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Xerxes Seposo
- School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
| | - Yue Leon Guo
- National Taiwan University and National Taiwan University Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan; National Institute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan
| | - Yuming Guo
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Michelle L Bell
- School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| |
Collapse
|
6
|
Wu Y, Li S, Zhao Q, Wen B, Gasparrini A, Tong S, Overcenco A, Urban A, Schneider A, Entezari A, Vicedo-Cabrera AM, Zanobetti A, Analitis A, Zeka A, Tobias A, Nunes B, Alahmad B, Armstrong B, Forsberg B, Pan SC, Íñiguez C, Ameling C, De la Cruz Valencia C, Åström C, Houthuijs D, Van Dung D, Royé D, Indermitte E, Lavigne E, Mayvaneh F, Acquaotta F, de'Donato F, Rao S, Sera F, Carrasco-Escobar G, Kan H, Orru H, Kim H, Holobaca IH, Kyselý J, Madureira J, Schwartz J, Jaakkola JJK, Katsouyanni K, Hurtado Diaz M, Ragettli MS, Hashizume M, Pascal M, de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho M, Ortega NV, Ryti N, Scovronick N, Michelozzi P, Correa PM, Goodman P, Nascimento Saldiva PH, Abrutzky R, Osorio S, Dang TN, Colistro V, Huber V, Lee W, Seposo X, Honda Y, Guo YL, Bell ML, Guo Y. Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with short-term temperature variability from 2000-19: a three-stage modelling study. Lancet Planet Health 2022; 6:e410-e421. [PMID: 35550080 PMCID: PMC9177161 DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(22)00073-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/16/2022] [Revised: 03/22/2022] [Accepted: 03/23/2022] [Indexed: 05/08/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Increased mortality risk is associated with short-term temperature variability. However, to our knowledge, there has been no comprehensive assessment of the temperature variability-related mortality burden worldwide. In this study, using data from the MCC Collaborative Research Network, we first explored the association between temperature variability and mortality across 43 countries or regions. Then, to provide a more comprehensive picture of the global burden of mortality associated with temperature variability, global gridded temperature data with a resolution of 0·5° × 0·5° were used to assess the temperature variability-related mortality burden at the global, regional, and national levels. Furthermore, temporal trends in temperature variability-related mortality burden were also explored from 2000-19. METHODS In this modelling study, we applied a three-stage meta-analytical approach to assess the global temperature variability-related mortality burden at a spatial resolution of 0·5° × 0·5° from 2000-19. Temperature variability was calculated as the SD of the average of the same and previous days' minimum and maximum temperatures. We first obtained location-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations based on a daily time series of 750 locations from the Multi-country Multi-city Collaborative Research Network. We subsequently constructed a multivariable meta-regression model with five predictors to estimate grid-specific temperature variability related-mortality associations across the globe. Finally, percentage excess in mortality and excess mortality rate were calculated to quantify the temperature variability-related mortality burden and to further explore its temporal trend over two decades. FINDINGS An increasing trend in temperature variability was identified at the global level from 2000 to 2019. Globally, 1 753 392 deaths (95% CI 1 159 901-2 357 718) were associated with temperature variability per year, accounting for 3·4% (2·2-4·6) of all deaths. Most of Asia, Australia, and New Zealand were observed to have a higher percentage excess in mortality than the global mean. Globally, the percentage excess in mortality increased by about 4·6% (3·7-5·3) per decade. The largest increase occurred in Australia and New Zealand (7·3%, 95% CI 4·3-10·4), followed by Europe (4·4%, 2·2-5·6) and Africa (3·3, 1·9-4·6). INTERPRETATION Globally, a substantial mortality burden was associated with temperature variability, showing geographical heterogeneity and a slightly increasing temporal trend. Our findings could assist in raising public awareness and improving the understanding of the health impacts of temperature variability. FUNDING Australian Research Council, Australian National Health & Medical Research Council.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Yao Wu
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Shanshan Li
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
| | - Qi Zhao
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Bo Wen
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Antonio Gasparrini
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre for Statistical Methodology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre on Climate Change & Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Shilu Tong
- Shanghai Children's Medical Centre, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China; School of Public Health, Institute of Environment and Population Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China; Center for Global Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China; School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
| | - Ala Overcenco
- National Agency for Public Health of the Ministry of Health, Labour and Social Protection of the Republic of Moldova, Chișinău, Moldova
| | - Aleš Urban
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic; Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Alexandra Schneider
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München-German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Alireza Entezari
- Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran
| | - Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Antonella Zanobetti
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Antonis Analitis
- Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece
| | - Ariana Zeka
- Institute for Environment, Health and Societies, Brunel University London, London, UK
| | - Aurelio Tobias
- Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, Spanish Council for Scientific Research, Barcelona, Spain; School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
| | - Baltazar Nunes
- Department of Epidemiology, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge, Porto, Portugal; Centro de Investigação em Saúde Pública, Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Barrak Alahmad
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Ben Armstrong
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Bertil Forsberg
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Shih-Chun Pan
- NationalInstitute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan
| | - Carmen Íñiguez
- Department of Statistics and Computational Research, Universitat de València, València, Spain; CIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health, Madrid, Spain
| | - Caroline Ameling
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Centre for Sustainability and Environmental Health, Bilthoven, Netherlands
| | | | - Christofer Åström
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Danny Houthuijs
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Centre for Sustainability and Environmental Health, Bilthoven, Netherlands
| | - Do Van Dung
- Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Dominic Royé
- CIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health, Madrid, Spain; Department of Geography, University of Santiago de Compostela, Santiago de Compostela, Spain
| | - Ene Indermitte
- Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
| | - Eric Lavigne
- School of Epidemiology & Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada; Air Health Science Division, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada
| | - Fatemeh Mayvaneh
- Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran
| | | | | | - Shilpa Rao
- Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway
| | - Francesco Sera
- Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications "G Parenti", University of Florence, Florence, Italy
| | - Gabriel Carrasco-Escobar
- Health Innovation Lab, Institute of Tropical Medicine "Alexander von Humboldt", Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru; Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA
| | - Haidong Kan
- Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Hans Orru
- Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
| | - Ho Kim
- Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
| | | | - Jan Kyselý
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic; Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Joana Madureira
- Environmental Health Department, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge, Porto, Portugal; EPIUnit-Instituto de Saúde Pública, Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal; Laboratório para a Investigação Integrativa e Translacional em Saúde Populacional (ITR), Porto, Portugal
| | - Joel Schwartz
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Jouni J K Jaakkola
- Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland; Medical Research Center Oulu (MRC Oulu), Oulu University Hospital and University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
| | - Klea Katsouyanni
- Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece; School of Population Health and Environmental Sciences, King's College London, London, UK
| | - Magali Hurtado Diaz
- Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca Morelos, Mexico
| | - Martina S Ragettli
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Masahiro Hashizume
- Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Mathilde Pascal
- Santé Publique France, Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, French National Public Health Agency, Saint Maurice, France
| | | | | | - Niilo Ryti
- Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland; Medical Research Center Oulu (MRC Oulu), Oulu University Hospital and University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
| | - Noah Scovronick
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Paola Michelozzi
- Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome, Italy
| | | | - Patrick Goodman
- School of Physics, Technological University Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
| | | | - Rosana Abrutzky
- Universidad de Buenos Aires, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Instituto de Investigaciones Gino Germani, Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Samuel Osorio
- Department of Environmental Health, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Tran Ngoc Dang
- Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Valentina Colistro
- Department of Quantitative Methods, School of Medicine, University of the Republic, Montevideo, Uruguay
| | - Veronika Huber
- IBE-Chair of Epidemiology, LMU Munich, Munich, Germany; Department of Physical, Chemical and Natural Systems, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Sevilla, Spain
| | - Whanhee Lee
- School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA; Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, School of Medicine, Ewha Womans University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Xerxes Seposo
- School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
| | - Yasushi Honda
- Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Yue Leon Guo
- NationalInstitute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan; Environmental and Occupational Medicine, National Taiwan University College of Medicine and NTU Hospital, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; Graduate Institute of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, National Taiwan University College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Michelle L Bell
- School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Yuming Guo
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
| |
Collapse
|
7
|
Wu Y, Wen B, Li S, Gasparrini A, Tong S, Overcenco A, Urban A, Schneider A, Entezari A, Vicedo-Cabrera AM, Zanobetti A, Analitis A, Zeka A, Tobias A, Alahmad B, Armstrong B, Forsberg B, Íñiguez C, Ameling C, De la Cruz Valencia C, Åström C, Houthuijs D, Van Dung D, Royé D, Indermitte E, Lavigne E, Mayvaneh F, Acquaotta F, de’Donato F, Sera F, Carrasco-Escobar G, Kan H, Orru H, Kim H, Holobaca IH, Kyselý J, Madureira J, Schwartz J, Katsouyanni K, Hurtado-Diaz M, Ragettli MS, Hashizume M, Pascal M, de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho M, Scovronick N, Michelozzi P, Goodman P, Nascimento Saldiva PH, Abrutzky R, Osorio S, Dang TN, Colistro V, Huber V, Lee W, Seposo X, Honda Y, Bell ML, Guo Y. Fluctuating temperature modifies heat-mortality association in the globe. Innovation (N Y) 2022; 3:100225. [PMID: 35340394 PMCID: PMC8942841 DOI: 10.1016/j.xinn.2022.100225] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/16/2021] [Accepted: 03/02/2022] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
Studies have investigated the effects of heat and temperature variability (TV) on mortality. However, few assessed whether TV modifies the heat-mortality association. Data on daily temperature and mortality in the warm season were collected from 717 locations across 36 countries. TV was calculated as the standard deviation of the average of the same and previous days’ minimum and maximum temperatures. We used location-specific quasi-Poisson regression models with an interaction term between the cross-basis term for mean temperature and quartiles of TV to obtain heat-mortality associations under each quartile of TV, and then pooled estimates at the country, regional, and global levels. Results show the increased risk in heat-related mortality with increments in TV, accounting for 0.70% (95% confidence interval [CI]: −0.33 to 1.69), 1.34% (95% CI: −0.14 to 2.73), 1.99% (95% CI: 0.29–3.57), and 2.73% (95% CI: 0.76–4.50) of total deaths for Q1–Q4 (first quartile–fourth quartile) of TV. The modification effects of TV varied geographically. Central Europe had the highest attributable fractions (AFs), corresponding to 7.68% (95% CI: 5.25–9.89) of total deaths for Q4 of TV, while the lowest AFs were observed in North America, with the values for Q4 of 1.74% (95% CI: −0.09 to 3.39). TV had a significant modification effect on the heat-mortality association, causing a higher heat-related mortality burden with increments of TV. Implementing targeted strategies against heat exposure and fluctuant temperatures simultaneously would benefit public health. Increased temperature variability (TV) poses a greater mortality risk due to heat TV has a more profound modification effect on extreme heat-mortality association Strategies against heat and TV simultaneously would benefit public health
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Yao Wu
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne 3004, Australia
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne 3004, Australia
| | - Bo Wen
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne 3004, Australia
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne 3004, Australia
| | - Shanshan Li
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne 3004, Australia
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne 3004, Australia
- Corresponding author
| | - Antonio Gasparrini
- Department of Public Health, Environments, and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK
- Centre for Statistical Methodology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK
- Centre on Climate Change & Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK
| | - Shilu Tong
- Shanghai Children’s Medical Centre, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200025, China
- School of Public Health, Institute of Environment and Human Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei 230032, China
- Center for Global Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing 211166, China
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane 4000, Australia
| | - Ala Overcenco
- National Agency for Public Health of the Ministry of Health, Labour, and Social Protection of the Republic of Moldova, Chisinau MD-2009, Republic of Moldova
| | - Aleš Urban
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague 141 00, Czech Republic
- Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague 165 00, Czech Republic
| | - Alexandra Schneider
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München–German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg 85747, Germany
| | - Alireza Entezari
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne 3004, Australia
- Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar 9617976487, Iran
| | - Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera
- Department of Public Health, Environments, and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern 3012, Switzerland
- Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern 3012, Switzerland
| | - Antonella Zanobetti
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA 02115, USA
| | - Antonis Analitis
- Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens 11527, Greece
| | - Ariana Zeka
- Institute for Environment, Health, and Societies, Brunel University London, London UB8 3PN, UK
| | - Aurelio Tobias
- Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, Spanish Council for Scientific Research, Barcelona 08034, Spain
- School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki 852-8521, Japan
| | - Barrak Alahmad
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA 02115, USA
| | - Ben Armstrong
- Department of Public Health, Environments, and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, UK
| | - Bertil Forsberg
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå 901 87, Sweden
| | - Carmen Íñiguez
- Department of Statistics and Computational Research, Universitat de València, València 46003, Spain
- CIBER de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid 28029, Spain
| | - Caroline Ameling
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Centre for Sustainability and Environmental Health, Bilthoven 3720 BA, Netherlands
| | - César De la Cruz Valencia
- Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca Morelos 62100, Mexico
| | - Christofer Åström
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå 901 87, Sweden
| | - Danny Houthuijs
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Centre for Sustainability and Environmental Health, Bilthoven 3720 BA, Netherlands
| | - Do Van Dung
- Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City 17000, Vietnam
| | - Dominic Royé
- CIBER de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid 28029, Spain
- Department of Geography, University of Santiago de Compostela, Santiago de Compostela 15705, Spain
| | - Ene Indermitte
- Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu 50090, Estonia
| | - Eric Lavigne
- School of Epidemiology & Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON K1N 6N5, Canada
- Air Health Science Division, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON K1A 0K9, Canada
| | - Fatemeh Mayvaneh
- Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar 9617976487, Iran
| | | | - Francesca de’Donato
- Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome 00147, Italy
| | - Francesco Sera
- Department of Statistics, Computer Science, and Applications “G. Parenti”, University of Florence, Florence 50121, Italy
| | - Gabriel Carrasco-Escobar
- Health Innovation Laboratory, Institute of Tropical Medicine “Alexander von Humboldt”, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima 15102, Peru
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA
| | - Haidong Kan
- Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
| | - Hans Orru
- Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu 50090, Estonia
| | - Ho Kim
- Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul 08826, Republic of Korea
| | | | - Jan Kyselý
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague 141 00, Czech Republic
- Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague 165 00, Czech Republic
| | - Joana Madureira
- EPIUnit – Instituto de Saúde Pública, Universidade do Porto, Porto 4050-600, Portugal
- Laboratório para a Investigação Integrativa e Translacional em Saúde Populacional (ITR), Porto 4050-600, Portugal
- Environmental Health Department, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr. Ricardo Jorge, Porto 4000-055, Portugal
| | - Joel Schwartz
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA 02115, USA
| | - Klea Katsouyanni
- Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens 11527, Greece
- School of Population Health and Environmental Sciences, King’s College London, London WC2R 2LS, UK
| | - Magali Hurtado-Diaz
- Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca Morelos 62100, Mexico
| | - Martina S. Ragettli
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel 4051, Switzerland
- University of Basel, Basel 4001, Switzerland
| | - Masahiro Hashizume
- Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo 113-8654, Japan
| | - Mathilde Pascal
- Santé Publique France, Department of Environmental Health, French National Public Health Agency, Saint Maurice 94 410, France
| | | | - Noah Scovronick
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA 30322, USA
| | - Paola Michelozzi
- Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome 00147, Italy
| | | | | | - Rosana Abrutzky
- Universidad de Buenos Aires, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Instituto de Investigaciones Gino Germani, Buenos Aires C1053ABH, Argentina
| | - Samuel Osorio
- Department of Environmental Health, University of São Paulo, São Paulo 01246-904, Brazil
| | - Tran Ngoc Dang
- Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City 17000, Vietnam
| | - Valentina Colistro
- Department of Quantitative Methods, School of Medicine, University of the Republic, Montevideo 11200, Uruguay
| | - Veronika Huber
- IBE-Chair of Epidemiology, Ludwig Maximilian University Munich, Munich 81377, Germany
- Department of Physical, Chemical, and Natural Systems, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Sevilla 41013, Spain
| | - Whanhee Lee
- School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511, USA
- Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, School of Medicine, Ewha Womans University, Seoul 03760, South Korea
| | - Xerxes Seposo
- School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki 852-8521, Japan
| | - Yasushi Honda
- Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan
| | - Michelle L. Bell
- School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06511, USA
| | - Yuming Guo
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne 3004, Australia
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne 3004, Australia
- Corresponding author
| |
Collapse
|
8
|
Scripcă AS, Acquaotta F, Croitoru AE, Fratianni S. The impact of extreme temperatures on human mortality in the most populated cities of Romania. Int J Biometeorol 2022; 66:189-199. [PMID: 34739588 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-021-02206-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/21/2020] [Revised: 10/04/2021] [Accepted: 10/11/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
The impact of extreme weather conditions on humans is one of the most important topics in biometeorology studies. The main objective of this study is to analyze the relationship between temperature-related weather conditions and natural mortality in the five most populated cities of Romania, namely, Bucharest, Cluj-Napoca, Constanța, Iași, and Timișoara. The results of this study aim to bridge a gap in national research. In the present paper, we used daily natural mortality data and daily minimum and maximum air temperatures. The distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) allowed us to identify weather conditions associated with natural mortality. The most important results are as follows: (i) a higher daily mortality is related to a high frequency of heat stress conditions; (ii) a higher maximum temperature increases the relative risk (RR) of natural mortality; (iii) the maximum number of fatalities is recorded on the first day of high-temperature events; and (iv) individuals much more easily adapt to cold stress conditions. The main conclusion in this study is that the inhabitants of the most populated cities in Romania are more sensitive to high-temperature stress than to low-temperature stress.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Andreea-Sabina Scripcă
- Doctoral School of Geography, Babeș-Bolyai University, 5-7, Clinicilor Street, 400006, Cluj-Napoca, Romania
| | - Fiorella Acquaotta
- Department of Earth Sciences, University of Turin, Via Valperga Caluso 35, 10125, Turin, Italy
- Centro Interdipartimentale Sui Rischi Naturali in Ambiente Montano E Collinare, NatRisk University of Turin, Turin, Italy
| | - Adina-Eliza Croitoru
- Department of Physical and Technical Geography, Babeș-Bolyai University, 5-7, Clinicilor Street, 400006, Cluj-Napoca, Romania.
- Research Centre for Sustainable Development, Babeș-Bolyai University, 5-7, Clinicilor Street, 400006, Cluj-Napoca, Romania.
| | - Simona Fratianni
- Department of Earth Sciences, University of Turin, Via Valperga Caluso 35, 10125, Turin, Italy
- Centro Interdipartimentale Sui Rischi Naturali in Ambiente Montano E Collinare, NatRisk University of Turin, Turin, Italy
| |
Collapse
|
9
|
Zhao Q, Guo Y, Ye T, Gasparrini A, Tong S, Overcenco A, Urban A, Schneider A, Entezari A, Vicedo-Cabrera AM, Zanobetti A, Analitis A, Zeka A, Tobias A, Nunes B, Alahmad B, Armstrong B, Forsberg B, Pan SC, Íñiguez C, Ameling C, De la Cruz Valencia C, Åström C, Houthuijs D, Dung DV, Royé D, Indermitte E, Lavigne E, Mayvaneh F, Acquaotta F, de'Donato F, Di Ruscio F, Sera F, Carrasco-Escobar G, Kan H, Orru H, Kim H, Holobaca IH, Kyselý J, Madureira J, Schwartz J, Jaakkola JJK, Katsouyanni K, Hurtado Diaz M, Ragettli MS, Hashizume M, Pascal M, de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coélho M, Valdés Ortega N, Ryti N, Scovronick N, Michelozzi P, Matus Correa P, Goodman P, Nascimento Saldiva PH, Abrutzky R, Osorio S, Rao S, Fratianni S, Dang TN, Colistro V, Huber V, Lee W, Seposo X, Honda Y, Guo YL, Bell ML, Li S. Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study. Lancet Planet Health 2021; 5:e415-e425. [PMID: 34245712 DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(21)00081-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 171] [Impact Index Per Article: 57.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/30/2020] [Revised: 04/01/2021] [Accepted: 04/06/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Exposure to cold or hot temperatures is associated with premature deaths. We aimed to evaluate the global, regional, and national mortality burden associated with non-optimal ambient temperatures. METHODS In this modelling study, we collected time-series data on mortality and ambient temperatures from 750 locations in 43 countries and five meta-predictors at a grid size of 0·5° × 0·5° across the globe. A three-stage analysis strategy was used. First, the temperature-mortality association was fitted for each location by use of a time-series regression. Second, a multivariate meta-regression model was built between location-specific estimates and meta-predictors. Finally, the grid-specific temperature-mortality association between 2000 and 2019 was predicted by use of the fitted meta-regression and the grid-specific meta-predictors. Excess deaths due to non-optimal temperatures, the ratio between annual excess deaths and all deaths of a year (the excess death ratio), and the death rate per 100 000 residents were then calculated for each grid across the world. Grids were divided according to regional groupings of the UN Statistics Division. FINDINGS Globally, 5 083 173 deaths (95% empirical CI [eCI] 4 087 967-5 965 520) were associated with non-optimal temperatures per year, accounting for 9·43% (95% eCI 7·58-11·07) of all deaths (8·52% [6·19-10·47] were cold-related and 0·91% [0·56-1·36] were heat-related). There were 74 temperature-related excess deaths per 100 000 residents (95% eCI 60-87). The mortality burden varied geographically. Of all excess deaths, 2 617 322 (51·49%) occurred in Asia. Eastern Europe had the highest heat-related excess death rate and Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest cold-related excess death rate. From 2000-03 to 2016-19, the global cold-related excess death ratio changed by -0·51 percentage points (95% eCI -0·61 to -0·42) and the global heat-related excess death ratio increased by 0·21 percentage points (0·13-0·31), leading to a net reduction in the overall ratio. The largest decline in overall excess death ratio occurred in South-eastern Asia, whereas excess death ratio fluctuated in Southern Asia and Europe. INTERPRETATION Non-optimal temperatures are associated with a substantial mortality burden, which varies spatiotemporally. Our findings will benefit international, national, and local communities in developing preparedness and prevention strategies to reduce weather-related impacts immediately and under climate change scenarios. FUNDING Australian Research Council and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Qi Zhao
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China; Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Yuming Guo
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
| | - Tingting Ye
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Antonio Gasparrini
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre for Statistical Methodology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Shilu Tong
- Shanghai Children's Medical Centre, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China; School of Public Health, Institute of Environment and Population Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China; Center for Global Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China; School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
| | - Ala Overcenco
- Laboratory of Management in Science and Public Health, National Agency for Public Health of the Ministry of Health, Chisinau, Moldova
| | - Aleš Urban
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic; Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Alexandra Schneider
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München-German Research Center for Environmental Health, Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Alireza Entezari
- Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran
| | - Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Antonella Zanobetti
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Antonis Analitis
- Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece
| | - Ariana Zeka
- Institute of Environment, Health and Societies, Brunel University London, London, UK
| | - Aurelio Tobias
- Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, Spanish Council for Scientific Research, Barcelona, Spain; School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
| | - Baltazar Nunes
- Department of Epidemiology, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge, Porto, Portugal; Centro de Investigação em Saúde Pública, Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Barrak Alahmad
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Ben Armstrong
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Bertil Forsberg
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Shih-Chun Pan
- National Institute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan
| | - Carmen Íñiguez
- Department of Statistics and Computational Research, Universitat de València, València, Spain; CIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health, Madrid, Spain
| | - Caroline Ameling
- Centre for Sustainability and Environmental Health, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, Netherlands
| | | | - Christofer Åström
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Danny Houthuijs
- Centre for Sustainability and Environmental Health, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, Netherlands
| | - Do Van Dung
- Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Dominic Royé
- CIBER of Epidemiology and Public Health, Madrid, Spain; Department of Geography, University of Santiago de Compostela, Santiago de Compostela, Spain
| | - Ene Indermitte
- Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
| | - Eric Lavigne
- School of Epidemiology and Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada; Air Health Science Division, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada
| | - Fatemeh Mayvaneh
- Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran
| | | | | | | | - Francesco Sera
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications G. Parenti, University of Florence, Florence, Italy
| | - Gabriel Carrasco-Escobar
- Health Innovation Lab, Institute of Tropical Medicine Alexander von Humboldt, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru; Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, University of California, San Diego, CA, USA
| | - Haidong Kan
- Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Hans Orru
- Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
| | - Ho Kim
- Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
| | | | - Jan Kyselý
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic; Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - Joana Madureira
- Department of Environmental Health, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge, Porto, Portugal; EPIUnit, Instituto de Saúde Pública, Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal
| | - Joel Schwartz
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Jouni J K Jaakkola
- Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research and Biocenter Oulu, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland; Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
| | - Klea Katsouyanni
- Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece; School of Population Health and Environmental Sciences, King's College London, London, UK
| | - Magali Hurtado Diaz
- Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca Morelos, Mexico
| | - Martina S Ragettli
- Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Masahiro Hashizume
- Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Mathilde Pascal
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Santé Publique France, French National Public Health Agency, Saint Maurice, France
| | | | | | - Niilo Ryti
- Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research and Biocenter Oulu, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
| | - Noah Scovronick
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - Paola Michelozzi
- Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome, Italy
| | | | - Patrick Goodman
- School of Physics, Technological University Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
| | | | - Rosana Abrutzky
- Instituto de Investigaciones Gino Germani, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - Samuel Osorio
- Department of Environmental Health, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Shilpa Rao
- Norwegian institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway
| | | | - Tran Ngoc Dang
- Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Valentina Colistro
- Department of Quantitative Methods, School of Medicine, University of the Republic, Montevideo, Uruguay
| | - Veronika Huber
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; Department of Physical, Chemical and Natural Systems, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Sevilla, Spain
| | - Whanhee Lee
- School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Xerxes Seposo
- School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
| | - Yasushi Honda
- Faculty of Health and Sport Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Yue Leon Guo
- National Institute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan; Environmental and Occupational Medicine, NTU College of Medicine and NTU Hospital, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; Institute of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, NTU College of Public Health, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Michelle L Bell
- School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Shanshan Li
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
| |
Collapse
|
10
|
Urban A, Di Napoli C, Cloke HL, Kyselý J, Pappenberger F, Sera F, Schneider R, Vicedo-Cabrera AM, Acquaotta F, Ragettli MS, Íñiguez C, Tobias A, Indermitte E, Orru H, Jaakkola JJK, Ryti NRI, Pascal M, Huber V, Schneider A, De' Donato F, Michelozzi P, Gasparrini A. Evaluation of the ERA5 reanalysis-based Universal Thermal Climate Index on mortality data in Europe. Environ Res 2021; 198:111227. [PMID: 33974842 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2021.111227] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 11.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/28/2020] [Revised: 04/03/2021] [Accepted: 04/23/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Air temperature has been the most commonly used exposure metric in assessing relationships between thermal stress and mortality. Lack of the high-quality meteorological station data necessary to adequately characterize the thermal environment has been one of the main limitations for the use of more complex thermal indices. Global climate reanalyses may provide an ideal platform to overcome this limitation and define complex heat and cold stress conditions anywhere in the world. In this study, we explored the potential of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) based on ERA5 - the latest global climate reanalysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) - as a health-related tool. Employing a novel ERA5-based thermal comfort dataset ERA5-HEAT, we investigated the relationships between the UTCI and daily mortality data in 21 cities across 9 European countries. We used distributed lag nonlinear models to assess exposure-response relationships between mortality and thermal conditions in individual cities. We then employed meta-regression models to pool the results for each city into four groups according to climate zone. To evaluate the performance of ERA5-based UTCI, we compared its effects on mortality with those for the station-based UTCI data. In order to assess the additional effect of the UTCI, the performance of ERA5-and station-based air temperature (T) was evaluated. Whilst generally similar heat- and cold-effects were observed for the ERA5-and station-based data in most locations, the important role of wind in the UTCI appeared in the results. The largest difference between any two datasets was found in the Southern European group of cities, where the relative risk of mortality at the 1st percentile of daily mean temperature distribution (1.29 and 1.30 according to the ERA5 vs station data, respectively) considerably exceeded the one for the daily mean UTCI (1.19 vs 1.22). These differences were mainly due to the effect of wind in the cold tail of the UTCI distribution. The comparison of exposure-response relationships between ERA5-and station-based data shows that ERA5-based UTCI may be a useful tool for definition of life-threatening thermal conditions in locations where high-quality station data are not available.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Aleš Urban
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic; Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic.
| | - Claudia Di Napoli
- School of Agriculture, Policy and Development, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Forecast Department, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom.
| | - Hannah L Cloke
- Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Sweden; Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Jan Kyselý
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic; Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic; Global Change Research Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Brno, Czech Republic
| | - Florian Pappenberger
- Forecast Department, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom
| | - Francesco Sera
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Rochelle Schneider
- Forecast Department, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom; Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom; Ф-Lab, European Space Agency (ESA-ESRIN), Frascati, Italy; The Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Ana M Vicedo-Cabrera
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom; Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | | | - Martina S Ragettli
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Carmen Íñiguez
- Department of Statistics and Computational Research, Universitat de València, València, Spain
| | - Aurelio Tobias
- Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, Spanish Council for Scientific Research, Barcelona, Spain; School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
| | - Ene Indermitte
- Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
| | - Hans Orru
- Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
| | - Jouni J K Jaakkola
- Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland; Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland; Medical Research Center Oulu (MRC Oulu), Oulu University Hospital and University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland; Biocenter Oulu, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
| | - Niilo R I Ryti
- Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland; Medical Research Center Oulu (MRC Oulu), Oulu University Hospital and University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland; Biocenter Oulu, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
| | - Mathilde Pascal
- Santé Publique France, Department of Environmental Health, French National Public Health Agency, Saint Maurice, France
| | - Veronika Huber
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; Department of Physical, Chemical and Natural Systems, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Sevilla, Spain
| | - Alexandra Schneider
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München - German Research Center for Environmental Health (GmbH), Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Francesca De' Donato
- Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service ASL Roma 1, Rome, Italy
| | - Paola Michelozzi
- Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service ASL Roma 1, Rome, Italy
| | - Antonio Gasparrini
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom; The Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom; Centre for Statistical Methodology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| |
Collapse
|
11
|
Vicedo-Cabrera AM, Scovronick N, Sera F, Royé D, Schneider R, Tobias A, Astrom C, Guo Y, Honda Y, Hondula DM, Abrutzky R, Tong S, de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho M, Saldiva PHN, Lavigne E, Correa PM, Ortega NV, Kan H, Osorio S, Kyselý J, Urban A, Orru H, Indermitte E, Jaakkola JJK, Ryti N, Pascal M, Schneider A, Katsouyanni K, Samoli E, Mayvaneh F, Entezari A, Goodman P, Zeka A, Michelozzi P, de’Donato F, Hashizume M, Alahmad B, Diaz MH, De La Cruz Valencia C, Overcenco A, Houthuijs D, Ameling C, Rao S, Ruscio FD, Carrasco-Escobar G, Seposo X, Silva S, Madureira J, Holobaca IH, Fratianni S, Acquaotta F, Kim H, Lee W, Iniguez C, Forsberg B, Ragettli MS, Guo YLL, Chen BY, Li S, Armstrong B, Aleman A, Zanobetti A, Schwartz J, Dang TN, Dung DV, Gillett N, Haines A, Mengel M, Huber V, Gasparrini A. The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change. Nat Clim Chang 2021; 11:492-500. [PMID: 34221128 PMCID: PMC7611104 DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01058-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 196] [Impact Index Per Article: 65.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/02/2020] [Accepted: 04/20/2021] [Indexed: 05/19/2023]
Abstract
Climate change affects human health; however, there have been no large-scale, systematic efforts to quantify the heat-related human health impacts that have already occurred due to climate change. Here, we use empirical data from 732 locations in 43 countries to estimate the mortality burdens associated with the additional heat exposure that has resulted from recent human-induced warming, during the period 1991-2018. Across all study countries, we find that 37.0% (range 20.5-76.3%) of warm-season heat-related deaths can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change and that increased mortality is evident on every continent. Burdens varied geographically but were of the order of dozens to hundreds of deaths per year in many locations. Our findings support the urgent need for more ambitious mitigation and adaptation strategies to minimize the public health impacts of climate change.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- A. M. Vicedo-Cabrera
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - N. Scovronick
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | - F. Sera
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications ‘G. Parenti’, University of Florence, Florence, Italy
| | - D. Royé
- Department of Geography, University of Santiago de Compostela, Santiago de Compostela, Spain
- CIBER de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
| | - R. Schneider
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Φ-Lab, European Space Agency (ESA-ESRIN), Frascati, Italy
- The Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF), Reading, UK
| | - A. Tobias
- Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, Spanish Council for Scientific Research, Barcelona, Spain
- School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
| | - C. Astrom
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - Y. Guo
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - Y. Honda
- Faculty of Health and Sport Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - D. M. Hondula
- School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA
| | - R. Abrutzky
- Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Instituto de Investigaciones Gino Germani, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina
| | - S. Tong
- Shanghai Children’s Medical Center, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
- School of Public Health, Institute of Environment and Population Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
- Center for Global Health, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China
| | | | | | - E. Lavigne
- Air Health Science Division, Health Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
- School of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
| | - P. Matus Correa
- Department of Public Health, Universidad de los Andes, Santiago, Chile
| | - N. Valdes Ortega
- Department of Public Health, Universidad de los Andes, Santiago, Chile
| | - H. Kan
- School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - S. Osorio
- Department of Environmental Health, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - J. Kyselý
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
- Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - A. Urban
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
- Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
| | - H. Orru
- Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
| | - E. Indermitte
- Institute of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
| | - J. J. K. Jaakkola
- Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
- Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
| | - N. Ryti
- Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
| | - M. Pascal
- Santé Publique France, Department of Environmental Health, French National Public Health Agency, Saint Maurice, France
| | - A. Schneider
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München—German Research Center for Environmental Health (GmbH), Neuherberg, Germany
| | - K. Katsouyanni
- Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, School of Medicine, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece
- MRC-PHE Centre for Environment and Health, Environmental Research Group, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - E. Samoli
- Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, School of Medicine, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece
| | - F. Mayvaneh
- Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran
| | - A. Entezari
- Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran
| | - P. Goodman
- School of Physics, Technological University Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
| | - A. Zeka
- Institute for Environment, Health and Societies, Brunel University London, London, UK
| | - P. Michelozzi
- Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome, Italy
| | - F. de’Donato
- Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome, Italy
| | - M. Hashizume
- Department of Global Health Policy, School of International Health, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | - B. Alahmad
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - M. Hurtado Diaz
- Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca Morelos, Mexico
| | - C. De La Cruz Valencia
- Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca Morelos, Mexico
| | - A. Overcenco
- Laboratory of Management in Science and Public Health, National Agency for Public Health of the Ministry of Health, Chisinau, Republic of Moldova
| | - D. Houthuijs
- Centre for Sustainability and Environmental Health, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, the Netherlands
| | - C. Ameling
- Centre for Sustainability and Environmental Health, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, the Netherlands
| | - S. Rao
- Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway
| | - F. Di Ruscio
- Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway
| | - G. Carrasco-Escobar
- Health Innovation Laboratory, Institute of Tropical Medicine ‘Alexander von Humboldt’, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru
| | - X. Seposo
- Department of Environmental Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
| | - S. Silva
- Department of Epidemiology, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - J. Madureira
- Department of Enviromental Health, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge, Porto, Portugal
- EPIUnit—Instituto de Saúde Pública, Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal
| | - I. H. Holobaca
- Faculty of Geography, Babes-Bolay University, Cluj-Napoca, Romania
| | - S. Fratianni
- Department of Earth Sciences, University of Torino, Turin, Italy
| | - F. Acquaotta
- Department of Earth Sciences, University of Torino, Turin, Italy
| | - H. Kim
- Graduate School of Public Health & Institute of Health and Environment, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - W. Lee
- Graduate School of Public Health & Institute of Health and Environment, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - C. Iniguez
- CIBER de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
- Department of Statistics and Computational Research, Universitat de Valencia, Valencia, Spain
| | - B. Forsberg
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
| | - M. S. Ragettli
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland
- University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Y. L. L. Guo
- Environmental and Occupational Medicine, and Institute of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, National Taiwan University (NTU) and NTU Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
- National Institute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan,Taiwan
| | - B. Y. Chen
- National Institute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan,Taiwan
| | - S. Li
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
| | - B. Armstrong
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- The Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - A. Aleman
- Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, University of the Republic, Montevideo, Uruguay
| | - A. Zanobetti
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - J. Schwartz
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - T. N. Dang
- Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - D. V. Dung
- Department of Environmental Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - N. Gillett
- Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, British Colombia, Canada
| | - A. Haines
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Φ-Lab, European Space Agency (ESA-ESRIN), Frascati, Italy
| | - M. Mengel
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
| | - V. Huber
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
- Department of Physical, Chemical and Natural Systems, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Seville, Spain
| | - A. Gasparrini
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- The Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Centre for Statistical Methodology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| |
Collapse
|
12
|
Moirano G, Zanet S, Giorgi E, Battisti E, Falzoi S, Acquaotta F, Fratianni S, Richiardi L, Ferroglio E, Maule M. Integrating environmental, entomological, animal, and human data to model the Leishmania infantum transmission risk in a newly endemic area in Northern Italy. One Health 2020; 10:100159. [PMID: 33117874 PMCID: PMC7582207 DOI: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2020.100159] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/23/2020] [Revised: 08/06/2020] [Accepted: 08/06/2020] [Indexed: 12/16/2022] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Historically, leishmaniasis in Italy was constrained to areas with Mediterranean climate. In the last 20 years, sand fly vectors (Phlebotomus perniciosus), cases of canine leishmaniasis (CanL) and cases of human visceral leishmaniasis (VL) have been observed in Northern Italian regions, traditionally classified as cold areas unsuitable for sand fly survival. AIM We aim to evaluate through a One-Health approach the risk of endemic transmission of Leishmania infantum in the Piedmont Region, Northern Italy. METHODS We collected environmental, entomological, animal, and human data. We applied a geostatistical binomial model to map the probability of P. perniciosus presence in the study area, using selected environmental parameters as predictors. We evaluated the spatial relationship between the probability of P. perniciosus presence and the geographical distribution of CanL and VL cases observed between 1999 and 2013. RESULTS Between 1999 and 2003, 142 sampling sets (17%) out of 839 resulted positive for P. perniciosus. Elevation, degree of slope, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and summer temperatures were associated with positive sampling sets. During the study period, 164 (13.6%) of Piedmont municipalities reported at least one autochthonous case of CanL, while 89 VL cases were observed in 54 municipalities (4.5%). We observed an association between municipalities affected by autochthonous CanL cases and the estimated probability of P. perniciosus presence (Odds Ratio for 10% increase of probability: 2.66; 95% confidence intervals (CI): 2.16-3.37). We found that human VL incident cases were positively associated with the probability of the municipality of residence of being endemic for CanL (Incidence Rate Ratio for 10% increase of probability: 1.49; 95% CI 1.02-2.16). CONCLUSIONS Using a One-Health approach, we quantified the spatial association between the distribution of P. perniciosus, municipalities endemic for CanL and incident cases of human VL, suggesting that the disease has become endemic in the Piedmont region.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- G. Moirano
- Cancer Epidemiology Unit, Department of Medical Sciences, University of Turin, Torino, Italy
| | - S. Zanet
- Dept. of Veterinary Sciences, University of Turin, Torino, Italy
| | - E. Giorgi
- CHICAS, Lancaster University Medical School, Lancaster, UK
| | - E. Battisti
- Dept. of Veterinary Sciences, University of Turin, Torino, Italy
| | - S. Falzoi
- Department of Earth Sciences, University of Turin, Torino, Italy
| | - F. Acquaotta
- Department of Earth Sciences, University of Turin, Torino, Italy
- Centro di Ricerca sui Rischi Naturali, Ambiente Montano e Collinare (NatRisk), Grugliasco, Italy
| | - S. Fratianni
- Department of Earth Sciences, University of Turin, Torino, Italy
- Centro di Ricerca sui Rischi Naturali, Ambiente Montano e Collinare (NatRisk), Grugliasco, Italy
| | - L. Richiardi
- Cancer Epidemiology Unit, Department of Medical Sciences, University of Turin, Torino, Italy
| | - E. Ferroglio
- Dept. of Veterinary Sciences, University of Turin, Torino, Italy
| | - M. Maule
- Cancer Epidemiology Unit, Department of Medical Sciences, University of Turin, Torino, Italy
| |
Collapse
|
13
|
Lee W, Kim Y, Sera F, Gasparrini A, Park R, Michelle Choi H, Prifti K, Bell ML, Abrutzky R, Guo Y, Tong S, de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho M, Nascimento Saldiva PH, Lavigne E, Orru H, Indermitte E, Jaakkola JJK, Ryti NRI, Pascal M, Goodman P, Zeka A, Hashizume M, Honda Y, Hurtado Diaz M, César Cruz J, Overcenco A, Nunes B, Madureira J, Scovronick N, Acquaotta F, Tobias A, Vicedo-Cabrera AM, Ragettli MS, Guo YLL, Chen BY, Li S, Armstrong B, Zanobetti A, Schwartz J, Kim H. Projections of excess mortality related to diurnal temperature range under climate change scenarios: a multi-country modelling study. Lancet Planet Health 2020; 4:e512-e521. [PMID: 33159878 PMCID: PMC7869581 DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(20)30222-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 32] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/17/2020] [Revised: 08/27/2020] [Accepted: 08/27/2020] [Indexed: 05/24/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Various retrospective studies have reported on the increase of mortality risk due to higher diurnal temperature range (DTR). This study projects the effect of DTR on future mortality across 445 communities in 20 countries and regions. METHODS DTR-related mortality risk was estimated on the basis of the historical daily time-series of mortality and weather factors from Jan 1, 1985, to Dec 31, 2015, with data for 445 communities across 20 countries and regions, from the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Research Network. We obtained daily projected temperature series associated with four climate change scenarios, using the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, from the lowest to the highest emission scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5). Excess deaths attributable to the DTR during the current (1985-2015) and future (2020-99) periods were projected using daily DTR series under the four scenarios. Future excess deaths were calculated on the basis of assumptions that warmer long-term average temperatures affect or do not affect the DTR-related mortality risk. FINDINGS The time-series analyses results showed that DTR was associated with excess mortality. Under the unmitigated climate change scenario (RCP 8.5), the future average DTR is projected to increase in most countries and regions (by -0·4 to 1·6°C), particularly in the USA, south-central Europe, Mexico, and South Africa. The excess deaths currently attributable to DTR were estimated to be 0·2-7·4%. Furthermore, the DTR-related mortality risk increased as the long-term average temperature increased; in the linear mixed model with the assumption of an interactive effect with long-term average temperature, we estimated 0·05% additional DTR mortality risk per 1°C increase in average temperature. Based on the interaction with long-term average temperature, the DTR-related excess deaths are projected to increase in all countries or regions by 1·4-10·3% in 2090-99. INTERPRETATION This study suggests that globally, DTR-related excess mortality might increase under climate change, and this increasing pattern is likely to vary between countries and regions. Considering climatic changes, our findings could contribute to public health interventions aimed at reducing the impact of DTR on human health. FUNDING Korea Ministry of Environment.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Whanhee Lee
- Department of Public Health Science, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Yoonhee Kim
- Department of Global Environmental Health, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Francesco Sera
- Department of Public Health Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Antonio Gasparrini
- Department of Public Health Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre for Statistical Methodology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK; Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Rokjin Park
- School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
| | | | - Kristi Prifti
- Department of Public Health Science, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Michelle L Bell
- School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - Rosana Abrutzky
- Faculty of Social Sciences, Research Institute Gino Germani, University of Buenos Aires, Buenos Aries, Argentina
| | - Yuming Guo
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Shilu Tong
- Shanghai Children's Medical Centre, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
| | | | | | - Eric Lavigne
- School of Epidemiology and Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada; Air Health Science Division, Health Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada
| | - Hans Orru
- Department of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
| | - Ene Indermitte
- Department of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
| | - Jouni J K Jaakkola
- Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
| | - Niilo R I Ryti
- Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
| | - Mathilde Pascal
- Department of Environmental Health, French National Public Health Agency, Public Health France, Saint Maurice, France
| | - Patrick Goodman
- School of Physics, Technological University Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
| | - Ariana Zeka
- Institute of Environment, Health and Societies, Brunel University London, London, UK
| | - Masahiro Hashizume
- Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Yasushi Honda
- Faculty of Health and Sport Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Magali Hurtado Diaz
- Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico
| | - Julio César Cruz
- Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico
| | - Ala Overcenco
- Laboratory of Management in Science and Public Health, National Agency for Public Health of the Ministry of Health, Chisinau, Republic of Moldova
| | - Baltazar Nunes
- Department of Epidemiology, National Institute of Health Dr Ricardo Jorge, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Joana Madureira
- Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Health Dr Ricardo Jorge, Lisbon, Portugal; EPIUnit, Institute of Public Health, University of Porto, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Noah Scovronick
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | | | - Aurelio Tobias
- Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, IDAEA, Spanish Council for Scientific Research, CSIC, Barcelona, Spain; School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
| | | | - Martina S Ragettli
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Yue-Liang Leon Guo
- Environmental and Occupational Medicine, and Institute of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, National Taiwan University and National Taiwan University Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan; National Institute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan
| | - Bing-Yu Chen
- National Institute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan; National Institute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan
| | - Shanshan Li
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Ben Armstrong
- Department of Public Health Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Antonella Zanobetti
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Joel Schwartz
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Ho Kim
- Department of Public Health Science, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea.
| |
Collapse
|
14
|
Gates A, Klein M, Acquaotta F, Garland RM, Scovronick N. Short-term association between ambient temperature and homicide in South Africa: a case-crossover study. Environ Health 2019; 18:109. [PMID: 31842901 PMCID: PMC6915878 DOI: 10.1186/s12940-019-0549-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/02/2019] [Accepted: 12/06/2019] [Indexed: 05/14/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Criminology research has traditionally investigated sociodemographic predictors of crime, such as sex, race, age, and socioeconomic status. However, evidence suggests that short-term fluctuations in crime often vary more than long-term trends, which sociodemographic factors cannot explain. This has redirected researchers to explore how environmental factors, such as meteorological variables, influence criminal behavior. In this study we investigate the association between daily ambient temperature and homicide incidence in South Africa, a country with one of the highest homicide rates in the world. METHODS Mortality data was from South Africa's civil registration system and includes all recorded deaths in the country from 1997 to 2013 (17 years). Daily temperature was from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Association of the United States and South Africa's Agricultural Research Council. Data were analyzed using a time-stratified case-crossover design with conditional logistic regression. We delineated cases as either "definite" (ICD-10 codes X85-Y09, n = 68,356) or "probable" homicides (ICD-10 codes W25-W26, W32-W34, W50, Y22-Y24, Y28-Y29, n = 177,873). Case periods were defined as the day on which a death occurred. Control periods were selected using a day-of-week match within the same month and district. Analyses investigated same-day and lagged effects of maximum, mean and minimum temperature. RESULTS A one-degree Celsius increase in same-day maximum temperature - our a priori metric of choice - was associated with a 1.5% (1.3-1.8%) increase in definite homicides and a 1.2% (1.1-1.3%) increase in total (definite + probable) homicides. Significant (p < 0.05) positive associations were also observed when applying other temperature metrics (mean, minimum) and lags (1, 0-1). The shape of the association did not display any clear non-linearities. There was no evidence of confounding by public holidays or air pollution. CONCLUSIONS This study suggests a positive association between daily ambient temperature and homicide in South Africa. This temperature-health relationship may be of particular concern in the context of climate change. The ability to include meteorological variables as a predictor of criminal activity and violent behavior could prove valuable in resource allocation for crime prevention efforts.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Abigail Gates
- Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA.
| | - Mitchel Klein
- Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| | | | - Rebecca M Garland
- Smart Places Cluster, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, Pretoria, South Africa
- Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria, Hatfield, Pretoria, South Africa
- Unit for Environmental Sciences and Management, North West University, Potchefstroom, South Africa
| | - Noah Scovronick
- Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA
| |
Collapse
|
15
|
Kim Y, Kim H, Gasparrini A, Armstrong B, Honda Y, Chung Y, Ng CFS, Tobias A, Íñiguez C, Lavigne E, Sera F, Vicedo-Cabrera AM, Ragettli MS, Scovronick N, Acquaotta F, Chen BY, Guo YLL, Seposo X, Dang TN, de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho M, Saldiva PHN, Kosheleva A, Zanobetti A, Schwartz J, Bell ML, Hashizume M. Suicide and Ambient Temperature: A Multi-Country Multi-City Study. Environ Health Perspect 2019; 127:117007. [PMID: 31769300 PMCID: PMC6927501 DOI: 10.1289/ehp4898] [Citation(s) in RCA: 82] [Impact Index Per Article: 16.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Previous literature suggests that higher ambient temperature may play a role in increasing the risk of suicide. However, no multi-country study has explored the shape of the association and the role of moderate and extreme heat across different locations. OBJECTIVES We examined the short-term temperature-suicide relationship using daily time-series data collected for 341 locations in 12 countries for periods ranging from 4 to 40 y. METHODS We conducted a two-stage meta-analysis. First, we performed location-specific time-stratified case-crossover analyses to examine the temperature-suicide association for each location. Then, we used a multivariate meta-regression to combine the location-specific lag-cumulative nonlinear associations across all locations and by country. RESULTS A total of 1,320,148 suicides were included in this study. Higher ambient temperature was associated with an increased risk of suicide in general, and we observed a nonlinear association (inverted J-shaped curve) with the highest risk at 27°C. The relative risk (RR) for the highest risk was 1.33 (95% CI: 1.30, 1.36) compared with the risk at the first percentile. Country-specific results showed that the nonlinear associations were more obvious in northeast Asia (Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan). The temperature with the highest risk of suicide ranged from the 87th to 88th percentiles in the northeast Asian countries, whereas this value was the 99th percentile in Western countries (Canada, Spain, Switzerland, the UK, and the United States) and South Africa, where nearly linear associations were estimated. The country-specific RRs ranged from 1.31 (95% CI: 1.19, 1.44) in the United States to 1.65 (95% CI: 1.40, 1.93) in Taiwan, excluding countries where the results were substantially uncertain. DISCUSSION Our findings showed that the risk of suicide increased with increasing ambient temperature in many countries, but to varying extents and not necessarily linearly. This temperature-suicide association should be interpreted cautiously, and further evidence of the relationship and modifying factors is needed. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP4898.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Yoonhee Kim
- Department of Global Environmental Health, Graduate School of Medicine, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Ho Kim
- Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Antonio Gasparrini
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Ben Armstrong
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Yasushi Honda
- Faculty of Health and Sport Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan
| | - Yeonseung Chung
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon, South Korea
| | - Chris Fook Sheng Ng
- School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
| | - Aurelio Tobias
- Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research, Spanish Council for Scientific Research, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Carmen Íñiguez
- Department of Statistics and Computational Research, Universitat de València, Spain
- CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain
| | - Eric Lavigne
- School of Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
- Air Health Science Division, Health Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
| | - Francesco Sera
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Martina S. Ragettli
- Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Environmental Exposures and Health Unit, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland
- University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
| | - Noah Scovronick
- Department of Environmental Health, Emory Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
| | | | - Bing-Yu Chen
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Medicine, National Taiwan University College of Medicine and National Taiwan University Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Yue-Liang Leon Guo
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Medicine, National Taiwan University College of Medicine and National Taiwan University Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
- National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan
| | - Xerxes Seposo
- Department of Environmental Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
| | - Tran Ngoc Dang
- Institute of Research and Development, Duy Tan University, Da Nang, Vietnam
- Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | | | | | - Anna Kosheleva
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Antonella Zanobetti
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Joel Schwartz
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Michelle L. Bell
- School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, USA
| | - Masahiro Hashizume
- School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
- Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
| |
Collapse
|
16
|
Moirano G, Gasparrini A, Acquaotta F, Fratianni S, Merletti F, Maule M, Richiardi L. West Nile Virus infection in Northern Italy: Case-crossover study on the short-term effect of climatic parameters. Environ Res 2018; 167:544-549. [PMID: 30145430 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2018.08.016] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/24/2018] [Revised: 07/03/2018] [Accepted: 08/10/2018] [Indexed: 06/08/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Changes in climatic conditions are hypothesized to play a role in the increasing number of West Nile Virus (WNV) outbreaks observed in Europe in recent years. OBJECTIVES We aimed to investigate the association between WNV infection and climatic parameters recorded in the 8 weeks before the diagnosis in Northern Italy. METHODS We collected epidemiological data about new infected cases for the period 2010-2015 from the European Center for Disease Control and Prevention (ECDC) and meteorological data from 25 stations throughout the study area. Analyses were performed using a conditional Poisson regression with a time-stratified case-crossover design, specifically modified to account for seasonal variations. Exposures included weekly average of maximum temperatures, weekly average of mean temperatures, weekly average of minimum temperatures and weekly total precipitation. RESULTS We found an association between incidence of WNV infection and temperatures recorded 5-6 weeks before diagnosis (Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR) for 1 °C increase in maximum temperatures at lag 6: 1.11; 95% CI 1.01-1.20). Increased weekly total precipitation, recorded 1-4 weeks before diagnosis, were associated with higher incidence of WNV infection, particularly for precipitation recorded 2 weeks before diagnosis (IRR for 5 mm increase of cumulative precipitation at lag 2: 1.16; 95% CI 1.08-1.25). CONCLUSIONS Increased precipitation and temperatures might have a lagged direct effect on the incidence of WNV infection. Climatic parameters may be useful for detecting areas and periods of the year potentially characterized by a higher incidence of WNV infection.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Giovenale Moirano
- Cancer Epidemiology Unit, Department of Medical Sciences, University of Turin and CPO-Piemonte, Torino Via Santena 7, 10126, Italy.
| | - Antonio Gasparrini
- Department of Public Health, Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Fiorella Acquaotta
- Department of Earth Sciences, University of Turin, via Valperga Caluso 35, 10125 Torino, Italy; Centro interdipartimentale sui rischi naturali in ambiente montano e collinare NatRisk, via Leonardo da Vinci 44, 10095 Grugliasco, TO, Italy
| | - Simona Fratianni
- Department of Earth Sciences, University of Turin, via Valperga Caluso 35, 10125 Torino, Italy; Centro interdipartimentale sui rischi naturali in ambiente montano e collinare NatRisk, via Leonardo da Vinci 44, 10095 Grugliasco, TO, Italy
| | - Franco Merletti
- Cancer Epidemiology Unit, Department of Medical Sciences, University of Turin and CPO-Piemonte, Torino Via Santena 7, 10126, Italy
| | - Milena Maule
- Cancer Epidemiology Unit, Department of Medical Sciences, University of Turin and CPO-Piemonte, Torino Via Santena 7, 10126, Italy
| | - Lorenzo Richiardi
- Cancer Epidemiology Unit, Department of Medical Sciences, University of Turin and CPO-Piemonte, Torino Via Santena 7, 10126, Italy
| |
Collapse
|
17
|
Scovronick N, Sera F, Acquaotta F, Garzena D, Fratianni S, Wright CY, Gasparrini A. The association between ambient temperature and mortality in South Africa: A time-series analysis. Environ Res 2018; 161:229-235. [PMID: 29161655 PMCID: PMC5773242 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2017.11.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 74] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/18/2017] [Revised: 09/07/2017] [Accepted: 11/01/2017] [Indexed: 05/06/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND There is an extensive literature describing temperature-mortality associations in developed regions, but research from developing countries, and Africa in particular, is limited. METHODS We conducted a time-series analysis using daily temperature data and a national dataset of all 8.8 million recorded deaths in South Africa between 1997 and 2013. Mortality and temperature data were linked at the district municipality level and relationships were estimated with a distributed lag non-linear model with 21 days of lag, and pooled in a multivariate meta-analysis. RESULTS We found an association between daily maximum temperature and mortality. The relative risk for all-age all-cause mortality on very cold and hot days (1st and 99th percentile of the temperature distribution) was 1.14 (1.10,1.17) and 1.06 (1.03,1.09), respectively, when compared to the minimum mortality temperature. This "U" shaped relationship was evident for every age and cause group investigated, except among 25-44 year olds. The strongest associations were in the youngest (< 5) and oldest (> 64) age groups and for cardiorespiratory causes. Heat effects occurred immediately after exposure but diminished quickly whereas cold effects were delayed but persistent. Overall, 3.4% of deaths (~ 290,000) in South Africa were attributable to non-optimum temperatures over the study period. We also present results for the 52 district municipalities individually. CONCLUSIONS An assessment of the largest-ever dataset for analyzing temperature-mortality associations in (South) Africa indicates mortality burdens associated with cold and heat, and identifies the young and elderly as particularly vulnerable.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Noah Scovronick
- Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA.
| | - Francesco Sera
- Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1H 9SH, UK
| | | | - Diego Garzena
- Department of Earth Sciences, University of Turin, Turin 10124, Italy
| | - Simona Fratianni
- Department of Earth Sciences, University of Turin, Turin 10124, Italy
| | - Caradee Y Wright
- Environment and Health Research Unit, South African Medical Research Council and Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria, Pretoria 0001, South Africa
| | - Antonio Gasparrini
- Department of Social and Environmental Health Research, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1H 9SH, UK
| |
Collapse
|
18
|
Acquaotta F, Ardissino G, Fratianni S, Perrone M. Role of climate in the spread of shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli infection among children. Int J Biometeorol 2017; 61:1647-1655. [PMID: 28389880 DOI: 10.1007/s00484-017-1344-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [What about the content of this article? (0)] [Affiliation(s)] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/30/2016] [Revised: 03/27/2017] [Accepted: 03/29/2017] [Indexed: 06/07/2023]
Abstract
Haemolytic-uraemic syndrome (HUS) is a rare disease mainly affecting children that develops as a complication of shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) infection. It is characterised by acute kidney injury, platelet consumption and mechanical destruction of red blood cells (haemolysis). In order to test the working hypothesis that the spread of the infection is influenced by specific climatic conditions, we analysed all of the identified cases of infection occurring between June 2010 and December 2013 in four provinces of Lombardy, Italy (Milano, Monza Brianza, Varese and Brescia), in which a STEC surveillance system has been developed as part of a preventive programme. In the selected provinces, we recorded in few days a great number of cases and clusters which are unrelated for spatially distant or for the disease are caused by different STEC serotypes. In order to investigate a common factor that favoured the onset of infection, we have analysed in detail the weather conditions of the areas. The daily series of temperature, rain and relative humidity were studied to show the common climate peculiarities whilst the correlation coefficient and the principal component analysis (PCA) were used to point out the meteorological variable, maximum temperature, as the principal climate element in the onset of the infection. The use of distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM) and the climate indices characterising heat waves (HWs) has allowed to identify the weather conditions associated with STEC infection. The study highlighted a close temporal correlation between STEC infection in children and the number, duration and frequency of heat waves. In particular, if the maximum temperature is greater than 90th percentile, days classified as very hot, for 3 or more consecutive days, the risk of infection is increasing.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Fiorella Acquaotta
- Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, Universita degli Studi di Torino, Torino, Italy.
- Centro interdipartimentale sui rischi naturali in ambiente montano e collinare, NatRisk, Grugliasco, Torino, Italy.
| | - Gianluigi Ardissino
- Center for Prevention, Control and Management of Hemolytic Uremic Syndrome at the Fondazione IRCCS Ca' Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Milan, Italy
| | - Simona Fratianni
- Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, Universita degli Studi di Torino, Torino, Italy
- Centro interdipartimentale sui rischi naturali in ambiente montano e collinare, NatRisk, Grugliasco, Torino, Italy
| | - Michela Perrone
- Center for Prevention, Control and Management of Hemolytic Uremic Syndrome at the Fondazione IRCCS Ca' Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Milan, Italy
| |
Collapse
|
19
|
|