Induced abortion in Africa: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

One of the main factors contributing to maternal morbidity and mortality is induced abortion. The WHO estimates that over 44 million induced abortions take place annually around the world. The majority of these abortions-about 50%-are unsafe, significantly increasing maternal morbidity and contributing to 13% of maternal deaths. Thus, this review aimed to estimate the pooled prevalence of induced abortion and its associated factors in Africa.

METHODS

To find literature on the prevalence of induced abortion and its associated factors, a thorough search of the internet databases such as PubMed/MEDLINE, African Journals Online, and Google Scholar was conducted. The data were extracted using a structured method of data collection. Software called STATA 14 was used to do the analysis. funnel plot and Egger regression test were used to evaluate potential publication bias. I2 statistics and Cochrane's Q were used to measure the heterogeneity at a p-value < 0.05.

RESULTS

976 studies were found through a thorough search of electronic databases. Finally, 46 full-text abstract papers were included in this study. The estimated pooled prevalence of induced abortion was 16% (95% CI: 13%-19%). According to the sub-group analysis, most studies were conducted in Ethiopia, and the pooled prevalence was 19% (95% CI: 10%-30%). Similarly, the subgroup analysis by year of study showed that the prevalence of induced abortion was 39% (95% CI: 17%-64%) among studies conducted in 2019.

CONCLUSION

The results of this study thus imply that the pooled prevalence of induced abortion is higher than that of earlier studies that were published in some nations. the data from this study are needed to support reproductive and adolescent health programmers and policymakers and to formulate recommendations for future clinical practice and guidelines.

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.

FINDINGS

Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378-521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20-3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5-45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7-26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6-38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5-32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7-2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.

INTERPRETATION

As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Prevalence of neonatal near miss in Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Neonatal near miss (NNM) applies to cases where newborns almost died during the first 28 d of life but survived life-threatening conditions following birth. The most vulnerable time for infant survival is the neonatal stage, corresponding to almost 50% of deaths occurring at <5 y of age. No study indicates the overall pooled prevalence of NNM in Africa. Thus this review aimed to estimate the overall pooled prevalence of NNMs in Africa.

METHODS

Articles were retrieved through a comprehensive search strategy using PubMed/MEDLINE, Embase, Health InterNetwork Access to Research Initiative, Cochrane Library and Google Search. Data extraction was done independently by all authors. Forest plots and tables were used to represent the original data. The statistical heterogeneity was evaluated using I2 statistics. There was heterogeneity between the included articles. Therefore the authors used a meta-analysis of random effects to estimate the aggregate pooled prevalence of NNM in Africa. Funnel plot and Egger regression test methods were used to assess possible publication bias. R software version 3.5.3 and R studio version 1.2.5003 were used to analyse the data. The guideline of the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses was used to publish this article. The review was registered on the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (registration ID: CRD42021290223).

RESULTS

Through an exhaustive search, we found 835 articles. However, we considered only eight full-text articles to be included in this meta-analysis. The analysis of included studies showed that the overall pooled prevalence of NNM in Africa was 30% (95% confidence interval [CI] 16 to 44). The subgroup analysis by study year showed that the prevalence of NNM from 2012-2015 and 2018-2019 was 36% (95% CI 23 to 49) and 20% (95% CI 1 to 39), respectively.

CONCLUSION

This finding suggests that the pooled prevalence of NNM is high in Africa as compared with other studies. Therefore the government and other stakeholders working on maternal and child health should assist in the design of interventions and strategies for improving the quality of neonatal care.

Time to recovery from severe acute malnutrition and its predictors among under five children admitted to therapeutic feeding units of general and referral hospitals in Tigray, Ethiopia, 2020: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Across the globe, an estimated 16 million children under the age of 5 are affected by severe acute malnutrition. Children with severe acute malnutrition are nine times more likely to die than well-nourished children. In Ethiopia, 7% of children under five are wasted, and 1% of these are severely wasted. A prolonged hospital stay increases the incidence of hospital-acquired infections. The aim of this study was to assess the time to recovery and its predictors among children 6-59 months old with severe acute malnutrition admitted to therapeutic feeding units of selected general and referral hospitals in Tigray, Ethiopia.

METHODS

A prospective cohort study design was conducted among children aged 6-59 months admitted with severe acute malnutrition in selected hospitals in Tigray that have therapeutic feeding units. The data were cleaned, coded, entered into Epi-data Manager, and exported to STATA 14 for analysis.

RESULT

Among 232 children followed in the study, 176 have recovered from severe acute malnutrition with a recovery rate of 54 per 1000 person-days observation and the median time to recovery was 16 days with an inter-quartile range of 8. In a multivariable Cox Regression, feeding plumpy nut [AHR 0.49 (95% CI 0.2717216-0.8893736)] and failing to gain 5 gr/kg/day for three successive days after feeding freely on F-100 [AHR 3.58 (95% CI 1.78837-7.160047)] were found to have an association with time to recovery.

CONCLUSION

Despite the median time to recovery is shorter than what has been reported in a few studies, we can conclude that this could not let children avoid any possible hospital-acquired infections. The impact of staying in a hospital may also extend to the mother/caregiver in terms of the infection that they may acquire or the costs imposed on them.

Prevalence of hypertension among type 2 diabetes mellitus patients in Ethiopia: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Hypertension among diabetic patients is a worldwide public health challenge and a leading modifiable risk factor for other cardiovascular diseases and death. This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of hypertension among diabetic patients in Ethiopia.

METHODS

The studies were selected using PubMed, Embase, Health InterNetwork Access to Research Initiative and Cochrane Library databases and Google searches. Two independent authors carried out the data extraction using a predetermined and structured method of data collection. R version 3.5.3 and RStudio version 1.2.5003 were used for analysing the data. To assess possible publication bias, funnel plot test methods were used. The guidelines of the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses were used to publish the results. This study was registered in the Prospective Register Systematic Reviews (CRD42020170649).

RESULTS

A total of 218 articles were identified but only 6 six full-text abstract papers were included in this systematic review and meta-analysis. The random effects model analysis showed that the pooled prevalence of hypertension among type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) patients in Ethiopia was 55% (95% confidence interval [CI] 49 to 61). The subgroup analysis of the pooled prevalence of hypertension among type 2 DM patients in the Oromia and Southern regions was 51% (95% CI 42 to 59) and 58% (95% CI 54 to 63), respectively. The pooled prevalence of hypertension among type 2 DM patients was higher among urban residents (60% [95% CI 54 to 67] and 52% [95% CI 41 to 63] among urban and rural residents, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

This study showed a high pooled prevalence of hypertension among type 2 DM patients in Ethiopia. Appropriate preventive measures should be implemented to reduce the burden of hypertension among DM patients in Ethiopia.

Global, regional, and national mortality among young people aged 10-24 years, 1950-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Documentation of patterns and long-term trends in mortality in young people, which reflect huge changes in demographic and social determinants of adolescent health, enables identification of global investment priorities for this age group. We aimed to analyse data on the number of deaths, years of life lost, and mortality rates by sex and age group in people aged 10-24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019 by use of estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

We report trends in estimated total numbers of deaths and mortality rate per 100 000 population in young people aged 10-24 years by age group (10-14 years, 15-19 years, and 20-24 years) and sex in 204 countries and territories between 1950 and 2019 for all causes, and between 1980 and 2019 by cause of death. We analyse variation in outcomes by region, age group, and sex, and compare annual rate of change in mortality in young people aged 10-24 years with that in children aged 0-9 years from 1990 to 2019. We then analyse the association between mortality in people aged 10-24 years and socioeconomic development using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure based on average national educational attainment in people older than 15 years, total fertility rate in people younger than 25 years, and income per capita. We assess the association between SDI and all-cause mortality in 2019, and analyse the ratio of observed to expected mortality by SDI using the most recent available data release (2017).

FINDINGS

In 2019 there were 1·49 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·39-1·59) worldwide in people aged 10-24 years, of which 61% occurred in males. 32·7% of all adolescent deaths were due to transport injuries, unintentional injuries, or interpersonal violence and conflict; 32·1% were due to communicable, nutritional, or maternal causes; 27·0% were due to non-communicable diseases; and 8·2% were due to self-harm. Since 1950, deaths in this age group decreased by 30·0% in females and 15·3% in males, and sex-based differences in mortality rate have widened in most regions of the world. Geographical variation has also increased, particularly in people aged 10-14 years. Since 1980, communicable and maternal causes of death have decreased sharply as a proportion of total deaths in most GBD super-regions, but remain some of the most common causes in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where more than half of all adolescent deaths occur. Annual percentage decrease in all-cause mortality rate since 1990 in adolescents aged 15-19 years was 1·3% in males and 1·6% in females, almost half that of males aged 1-4 years (2·4%), and around a third less than in females aged 1-4 years (2·5%). The proportion of global deaths in people aged 0-24 years that occurred in people aged 10-24 years more than doubled between 1950 and 2019, from 9·5% to 21·6%.

INTERPRETATION

Variation in adolescent mortality between countries and by sex is widening, driven by poor progress in reducing deaths in males and older adolescents. Improving global adolescent mortality will require action to address the specific vulnerabilities of this age group, which are being overlooked. Furthermore, indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to jeopardise efforts to improve health outcomes including mortality in young people aged 10-24 years. There is an urgent need to respond to the changing global burden of adolescent mortality, address inequities where they occur, and improve the availability and quality of primary mortality data in this age group.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Use of multidimensional item response theory methods for dementia prevalence prediction: an example using the Health and Retirement Survey and the Aging, Demographics, and Memory Study

BACKGROUND

Data sparsity is a major limitation to estimating national and global dementia burden. Surveys with full diagnostic evaluations of dementia prevalence are prohibitively resource-intensive in many settings. However, validation samples from nationally representative surveys allow for the development of algorithms for the prediction of dementia prevalence nationally.

METHODS

Using cognitive testing data and data on functional limitations from Wave A (2001-2003) of the ADAMS study (n = 744) and the 2000 wave of the HRS study (n = 6358) we estimated a two-dimensional item response theory model to calculate cognition and function scores for all individuals over 70. Based on diagnostic information from the formal clinical adjudication in ADAMS, we fit a logistic regression model for the classification of dementia status using cognition and function scores and applied this algorithm to the full HRS sample to calculate dementia prevalence by age and sex.

RESULTS

Our algorithm had a cross-validated predictive accuracy of 88% (86-90), and an area under the curve of 0.97 (0.97-0.98) in ADAMS. Prevalence was higher in females than males and increased over age, with a prevalence of 4% (3-4) in individuals 70-79, 11% (9-12) in individuals 80-89 years old, and 28% (22-35) in those 90 and older.

CONCLUSIONS

Our model had similar or better accuracy as compared to previously reviewed algorithms for the prediction of dementia prevalence in HRS, while utilizing more flexible methods. These methods could be more easily generalized and utilized to estimate dementia prevalence in other national surveys.

Diabetic Peripheral Neuropathy in Ethiopia: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Currently, diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN) is one of the most severe complications of diabetes mellitus (DM). Despite the seriousness of this problem, limited evidence is available on the prevalence of diabetic peripheral neuropathy among patients with diabetes mellitus in Ethiopia. In Ethiopia, there were no updated studies that estimate the national prevalence of DPN. Hence, this systematic review and meta-analysis provided a national prevalence of diabetic peripheral neuropathy among patients with diabetes mellitus in Ethiopia.

METHODS

This study was submitted for registration with the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) in March 2020 and accepted with the registration number CRD42020173831. Different database searching engines were searched online to retrieve related articles, including PubMed, Scopus, Google Scholar, African Journals Online, World Health Organization (WHO) Afro Library, and Cochrane Review. The reviewers used the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guideline in the reviewing process. In this systematic review and meta-analysis, all published and unpublished articles were analyzed. The reviewers used the random effects model to estimate the pooled prevalence of diabetic peripheral neuropathy among diabetes mellitus patients. The reviewers conducted the statistical analysis using the R version 3.5.3 and RStudio version 1.2.5033 software for Windows. The reviewers evaluated the heterogeneity across the included studies by the inconsistency index (I ²). The reviewers examined the publication bias by the funnel plot.

RESULTS

The search of the databases produced 245 papers. After checking the inclusion and exclusion criteria, 38 articles with 14029 total patients with diabetes mellitus were found suitable for the review. Except for three (retrospective cohort study), all studies were cross-sectional. The overall pooled prevalence of diabetic peripheral neuropathy was 22% (95% CI 18% to 26%). The subgroup analysis of diabetic peripheral neuropathy among patients with diabetes in the different regions was 23% (95% CI 17% to 29%) in Addis Ababa, 27% (95% CI 16% to 38%) in Oromia, 16% (95% CI 14% to 18%) in South nation and nationalities, and 15% (95% CI 6% to 24%) in Amhara.

CONCLUSIONS

More than one-fifth of patients with diabetes have diabetic peripheral neuropathy. According to this study, the prevalence of diabetic peripheral neuropathy in Ethiopia is considerably high. This evidence suggests that attention should be given to patients with diabetes in monitoring patients' blood glucose.

The burden, admission, and outcome of COVID-19 in Africa: protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: According to the World Health Organization (WHO), the outbreak of coronavirus disease in 2019 (COVID-19) has been declared as pandemic and public health emergency that infected more than 5 million people worldwide at the time of writing this protocol. Strong evidence for the burden, admission, and outcome of COVID-19 has not been published in Africa. Therefore, this protocol will be served as a guideline to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of the burden, admission, and outcome of COVID-19 in Africa. Methods: Published and unpublished studies on the burden, admission, and outcome of COVID-19 in Africa and written in any language will be included. Databases (PubMed / MEDLINE, Google Scholar, Google, EMBASE, Web of Science, Microsoft Academic, WHO COVID-19 database, Cochran Library, Africa Wide Knowledge, and Africa Index Medicus) from December 2019 to May 2020 will be searched. Two independent reviewers will select, screen, extract data, and assess the risk of bias. The proportion will be measured using a random-effects model. Subgroup analysis will be conducted to manage hetrogeinity. The presence of publication bias will be assessed using Egger's test and visual inspection of the funnel plots. This systematic and meta-analysis review protocol will be reported per the PRISMA-P guidelines. Conclusion: This systematic review and meta-analysis protocol will be expected to quantify the burden, admission, and outcome of COVID-19 in Africa. Systematic review registration: This protocol was submitted for registration with the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) in March 2020 and accepted with the registration number: CRD42020179321(https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO).

Intimate partner violence against reproductive age women during COVID-19 pandemic in northern Ethiopia 2020: a community-based cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

As the global pandemic of corona virus (COVID-19) spreads across continents and communities, people are forced to respond with strict preventive measures such as staying at home and keeping social distance. In relation with these measures, particularly with the staying at home, increasing rates of domestic violence are beginning to surface. Hence, this study was aimed at determining the prevalence of intimate partner violence against reproductive age women in northern Ethiopia during the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

A community-based cross-sectional study design was employed. The data were collected during the period of April to May, 2020 using interviews and a self-administered standard questionnaire. The data were entered into the Epi-data manager version 4.2 and exported to SPSS 22 for analysis. The descriptive analysis such as frequency distribution, percentage, and measures of central tendency were used. This was followed by binary and multiple logistic regression analysis to infer the association between the outcome and independent variables.

RESULTS

A total of 682 participants were included in the study. The prevalence of intimate partner violence against women was found to stood at 24.6% with psychological violence being the most prevalent (13.3%), followed by physical (8.3%) and sexual violence (5.3%). Women were more likely to suffer from violence if they were housewives (AOR, 95% CI (18.062 (10.088, 32.342))), age less than 30 (AOR, 95% CI (23.045 (5.627, 94.377))), women with arrange marriage (AOR, 95% CI (2.535 (1.572, 4.087))) and women with husband's age being "between" 31-40 (AOR, CI 95% (2.212 (1.024, 4.777))).

CONCLUSIONS

This study showed the presence of a relatively high prevalence of intimate partner violence against women. Thus, public reporting of any cases or concerns of abuse is critical and vital to mitigate the problem.

Estimating global injuries morbidity and mortality: methods and data used in the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study

BACKGROUND

While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria.

METHODS

In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced.

RESULTS

GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes.

CONCLUSIONS

GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future.

Epidemiology of injuries from fire, heat and hot substances: global, regional and national morbidity and mortality estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study

BACKGROUND

Past research has shown how fires, heat and hot substances are important causes of health loss globally. Detailed estimates of the morbidity and mortality from these injuries could help drive preventative measures and improved access to care.

METHODS

We used the Global Burden of Disease 2017 framework to produce three main results. First, we produced results on incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, deaths, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life years from 1990 to 2017 for 195 countries and territories. Second, we analysed these results to measure mortality-to-incidence ratios by location. Third, we reported the measures above in terms of the cause of fire, heat and hot substances and the types of bodily injuries that result.

RESULTS

Globally, there were 8 991 468 (7 481 218 to 10 740 897) new fire, heat and hot substance injuries in 2017 with 120 632 (101 630 to 129 383) deaths. At the global level, the age-standardised mortality caused by fire, heat and hot substances significantly declined from 1990 to 2017, but regionally there was variability in age-standardised incidence with some regions experiencing an increase (eg, Southern Latin America) and others experiencing a significant decrease (eg, High-income North America).

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence and mortality of injuries that result from fire, heat and hot substances affect every region of the world but are most concentrated in middle and lower income areas. More resources should be invested in measuring these injuries as well as in improving infrastructure, advancing safety measures and ensuring access to care.

Global injury morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2017: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries.

METHODS

We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).

FINDINGS

In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505).

INTERPRETATION

Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.

Epidemiology of facial fractures: incidence, prevalence and years lived with disability estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) has historically produced estimates of causes of injury such as falls but not the resulting types of injuries that occur. The objective of this study was to estimate the global incidence, prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) due to facial fractures and to estimate the leading injurious causes of facial fracture.

METHODS

We obtained results from GBD 2017. First, the study estimated the incidence from each injury cause (eg, falls), and then the proportion of each cause that would result in facial fracture being the most disabling injury. Incidence, prevalence and YLDs of facial fractures are then calculated across causes.

RESULTS

Globally, in 2017, there were 7 538 663 (95% uncertainty interval 6 116 489 to 9 493 113) new cases, 1 819 732 (1 609 419 to 2 091 618) prevalent cases, and 117 402 (73 266 to 169 689) YLDs due to facial fractures. In terms of age-standardised incidence, prevalence and YLDs, the global rates were 98 (80 to 123) per 100 000, 23 (20 to 27) per 100 000, and 2 (1 to 2) per 100 000, respectively. Facial fractures were most concentrated in Central Europe. Falls were the predominant cause in most regions.

CONCLUSIONS

Facial fractures are predominantly caused by falls and occur worldwide. Healthcare systems and public health agencies should investigate methods of all injury prevention. It is important for healthcare systems in every part of the world to ensure access to treatment resources.

Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea.

METHODS

We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates.

FINDINGS

The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1-65·8), 17·4% (7·7-28·4), and 59·5% (34·2-86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage.

INTERPRETATION

By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national burden of chronic kidney disease, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Health system planning requires careful assessment of chronic kidney disease (CKD) epidemiology, but data for morbidity and mortality of this disease are scarce or non-existent in many countries. We estimated the global, regional, and national burden of CKD, as well as the burden of cardiovascular disease and gout attributable to impaired kidney function, for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017. We use the term CKD to refer to the morbidity and mortality that can be directly attributed to all stages of CKD, and we use the term impaired kidney function to refer to the additional risk of CKD from cardiovascular disease and gout.

METHODS

The main data sources we used were published literature, vital registration systems, end-stage kidney disease registries, and household surveys. Estimates of CKD burden were produced using a Cause of Death Ensemble model and a Bayesian meta-regression analytical tool, and included incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, mortality, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). A comparative risk assessment approach was used to estimate the proportion of cardiovascular diseases and gout burden attributable to impaired kidney function.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2017, 1·2 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·2 to 1·3) people died from CKD. The global all-age mortality rate from CKD increased 41·5% (95% UI 35·2 to 46·5) between 1990 and 2017, although there was no significant change in the age-standardised mortality rate (2·8%, -1·5 to 6·3). In 2017, 697·5 million (95% UI 649·2 to 752·0) cases of all-stage CKD were recorded, for a global prevalence of 9·1% (8·5 to 9·8). The global all-age prevalence of CKD increased 29·3% (95% UI 26·4 to 32·6) since 1990, whereas the age-standardised prevalence remained stable (1·2%, -1·1 to 3·5). CKD resulted in 35·8 million (95% UI 33·7 to 38·0) DALYs in 2017, with diabetic nephropathy accounting for almost a third of DALYs. Most of the burden of CKD was concentrated in the three lowest quintiles of Socio-demographic Index (SDI). In several regions, particularly Oceania, sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America, the burden of CKD was much higher than expected for the level of development, whereas the disease burden in western, eastern, and central sub-Saharan Africa, east Asia, south Asia, central and eastern Europe, Australasia, and western Europe was lower than expected. 1·4 million (95% UI 1·2 to 1·6) cardiovascular disease-related deaths and 25·3 million (22·2 to 28·9) cardiovascular disease DALYs were attributable to impaired kidney function.

INTERPRETATION

Kidney disease has a major effect on global health, both as a direct cause of global morbidity and mortality and as an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease. CKD is largely preventable and treatable and deserves greater attention in global health policy decision making, particularly in locations with low and middle SDI.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, Regional, and National Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life-Years for 29 Cancer Groups, 1990 to 2017: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study

Importance

Cancer and other noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are now widely recognized as a threat to global development. The latest United Nations high-level meeting on NCDs reaffirmed this observation and also highlighted the slow progress in meeting the 2011 Political Declaration on the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases and the third Sustainable Development Goal. Lack of situational analyses, priority setting, and budgeting have been identified as major obstacles in achieving these goals. All of these have in common that they require information on the local cancer epidemiology. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is uniquely poised to provide these crucial data.

Objective

To describe cancer burden for 29 cancer groups in 195 countries from 1990 through 2017 to provide data needed for cancer control planning.

Evidence Review

We used the GBD study estimation methods to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Results are presented at the national level as well as by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income, educational attainment, and total fertility rate. We also analyzed the influence of the epidemiological vs the demographic transition on cancer incidence.

Findings

In 2017, there were 24.5 million incident cancer cases worldwide (16.8 million without nonmelanoma skin cancer [NMSC]) and 9.6 million cancer deaths. The majority of cancer DALYs came from years of life lost (97%), and only 3% came from years lived with disability. The odds of developing cancer were the lowest in the low SDI quintile (1 in 7) and the highest in the high SDI quintile (1 in 2) for both sexes. In 2017, the most common incident cancers in men were NMSC (4.3 million incident cases); tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer (1.5 million incident cases); and prostate cancer (1.3 million incident cases). The most common causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for men were TBL cancer (1.3 million deaths and 28.4 million DALYs), liver cancer (572 000 deaths and 15.2 million DALYs), and stomach cancer (542 000 deaths and 12.2 million DALYs). For women in 2017, the most common incident cancers were NMSC (3.3 million incident cases), breast cancer (1.9 million incident cases), and colorectal cancer (819 000 incident cases). The leading causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for women were breast cancer (601 000 deaths and 17.4 million DALYs), TBL cancer (596 000 deaths and 12.6 million DALYs), and colorectal cancer (414 000 deaths and 8.3 million DALYs).

Conclusions and Relevance

The national epidemiological profiles of cancer burden in the GBD study show large heterogeneities, which are a reflection of different exposures to risk factors, economic settings, lifestyles, and access to care and screening. The GBD study can be used by policy makers and other stakeholders to develop and improve national and local cancer control in order to achieve the global targets and improve equity in cancer care.

Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017

Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2-to end preventable child deaths by 2030-we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000-2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations.

Magnitude of metabolic syndrome and its associated factors among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus in Ayder Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Tigray, Ethiopia: a cross sectional study

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to assess magnitude of metabolic syndrome and its associated factors among type 2 diabetes mellitus patients in Ayder Comprehensive Specialized Hospital. A hospital based cross sectional study design was used. Binary logistic regression model was used.

RESULT

A total of 419 respondents (208 males and 211 females) were enrolled; the mean age was 56.39 (SD 10.18), 51.1% of the respondents had metabolic syndrome according to international diabetes federation. Sex and age were statistically associated with metabolic syndrome with [AOR (95% CI) 1.93 (1.057, 3.533) and 1.04 (1.012, 1.072)] respectively. Regular physical exercise, overweight and obesity were statistically associated with metabolic syndrome with [AOR (95% CI) 1.84 (1.002, 3.362), 2.68 (1.518, 4.747) and 3.55 (1.254, 10.074)] respectively. To conclude, Magnitude of metabolic syndrome was high. The associated factors for metabolic syndrome are physical inactivity, inadequate intake of fruits, family history, overweight, and obesity.