Potential for positive biodiversity outcomes under diet-driven land use change in Great Britain

Background

A shift toward human diets that include more fruit and vegetables, and less meat is a potential pathway to improve public health and reduce food system-related greenhouse gas emissions. Associated changes in land use could include conversion of grazing land into horticulture, which makes more efficient use of land per unit of dietary energy and frees-up land for other uses.

Methods

Here we use Great Britain as a case study to estimate potential impacts on biodiversity from converting grazing land to a mixture of horticulture and natural land covers by fitting species distribution models for over 800 species, including pollinating insects and species of conservation priority.

Results

Across several land use scenarios that consider the current ratio of domestic fruit and vegetable production to imports, our statistical models suggest a potential for gains to biodiversity, including a tendency for more species to gain habitable area than to lose habitable area. Moreover, the models suggest that climate change impacts on biodiversity could be mitigated to a degree by land use changes associated with dietary shifts.

Conclusions

Our analysis demonstrates that options exist for changing agricultural land uses in a way that can generate win-win-win outcomes for biodiversity, adaptation to climate change and public health.

Potential for positive biodiversity outcomes under diet-driven land use change in Great Britain

Background: A shift toward human diets that include more fruit and vegetables, and less meat is a potential pathway to improve public health and reduce food system-related greenhouse gas emissions. Associated changes in land use could include conversion of grazing land into horticulture, which makes more efficient use of land per unit of dietary energy and frees-up land for other uses. Methods: Here we use Great Britain as a case study to estimate potential impacts on biodiversity from converting grazing land to a mixture of horticulture and natural land covers by fitting species distribution models for over 800 species, including pollinating insects and species of conservation priority. Results: Across several land use scenarios that consider the current ratio of domestic fruit and vegetable production to imports, our statistical models suggest a potential for gains to biodiversity, including a tendency for more species to gain habitable area than to lose habitable area. Moreover, the models suggest that climate change impacts on biodiversity could be mitigated to a degree by land use changes associated with dietary shifts. Conclusions: Our analysis demonstrates that options exist for changing agricultural land uses in a way that can generate win-win-win outcomes for biodiversity, adaptation to climate change and public health.

Towards the Three Dimensions of Sustainability for International Research Team Collaboration: Learnings from the Sustainable and Healthy Food Systems Research Programme

This paper highlights the potential for learning and virtual collaboration in international research teams to contribute towards sustainability goals. Previous research confirmed the environmental benefits of carbon savings from international virtual conferences. This paper adds the social and economic dimensions by using a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods to measure the constraints and benefits for personal development, economic costs, efficiency and team learning of holding international virtual conferences (VCs). Using the Sustainable and Healthy Food Systems (SHEFS) research programme as a case study, we analysed VC participant survey data to identify strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats of VCs. We estimated 'saved' GHG emissions, costs, and time, of using VCs as an alternative for a planned in-person meeting in Chennai, India. Hosting VCs reduced North-South, gender, and researcher inclusivity concerns, financial and travelling time costs, and substantially reduced emissions. For one international meeting with 107 participants, changing to a virtual format reduced the per capita GHG emissions to half the annual global average, and avoided 60% of travel costs. The benefits of VCs outweighed weaknesses. The main strengths were inclusivity and access, with 20% more early/mid-career researchers attending. This study identified opportunities for international research partnerships to mitigate their carbon footprint (environmental benefit) and enhance inclusivity of early/mid-career, women and Global South participants (social benefit), whilst continuing to deliver effective collaborative research meetings (economic benefit). In doing so, we present a holistic view of sustainability opportunities for virtual collaboration.

Classifying ecosystem stressor interactions: Theory highlights the data limitations of the additive null model and the difficulty in revealing ecological surprises

Understanding how multiple co-occurring environmental stressors combine to affect biodiversity and ecosystem services is an on-going grand challenge for ecology. Currently, progress has been made through accumulating large numbers of smaller-scale empirical studies that are then investigated by meta-analyses to detect general patterns. There is particular interest in detecting, understanding and predicting 'ecological surprises' where stressors interact in a non-additive (e.g. antagonistic or synergistic) manner, but so far few general results have emerged. However, the ability of the statistical tools to recover non-additive interactions in the face of data uncertainty is unstudied, so crucially, we do not know how well the empirical results reflect the true stressor interactions. Here, we investigate the performance of the commonly implemented additive null model. A meta-analysis of a large (545 interactions) empirical dataset for the effects of pairs of stressors on freshwater communities reveals additive interactions dominate individual studies, whereas pooling the data leads to an antagonistic summary interaction class. However, analyses of simulated data from food chain models, where the underlying interactions are known, suggest both sets of results may be due to observation error within the data. Specifically, we show that the additive null model is highly sensitive to observation error, with non-additive interactions being reliably detected at only unrealistically low levels of data uncertainty. Similarly, plausible levels of observation error lead to meta-analyses reporting antagonistic summary interaction classifications even when synergies co-dominate. Therefore, while our empirical results broadly agree with those of previous freshwater meta-analyses, we conclude these patterns may be driven by statistical sampling rather than any ecological mechanisms. Further investigation of candidate null models used to define stressor-pair interactions is essential, and once any artefacts are accounted for, the so-called 'ecological surprises' may be more frequent than was previously assumed.

Four priorities for new links between conservation science and accounting research

Article impact statement: New collaborations with accounting research can improve conservation impact of ecosystem-based information systems.

The Lancet Countdown: tracking progress on health and climate change

The Lancet Countdown: tracking progress on health and climate change is an international, multidisciplinary research collaboration between academic institutions and practitioners across the world. It follows on from the work of the 2015 Lancet Commission, which concluded that the response to climate change could be "the greatest global health opportunity of the 21st century". The Lancet Countdown aims to track the health impacts of climate hazards; health resilience and adaptation; health co-benefits of climate change mitigation; economics and finance; and political and broader engagement. These focus areas form the five thematic working groups of the Lancet Countdown and represent different aspects of the complex association between health and climate change. These thematic groups will provide indicators for a global overview of health and climate change; national case studies highlighting countries leading the way or going against the trend; and engagement with a range of stakeholders. The Lancet Countdown ultimately aims to report annually on a series of indicators across these five working groups. This paper outlines the potential indicators and indicator domains to be tracked by the collaboration, with suggestions on the methodologies and datasets available to achieve this end. The proposed indicator domains require further refinement, and mark the beginning of an ongoing consultation process-from November, 2016 to early 2017-to develop these domains, identify key areas not currently covered, and change indicators where necessary. This collaboration will actively seek to engage with existing monitoring processes, such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals and WHO's climate and health country profiles. The indicators will also evolve over time through ongoing collaboration with experts and a range of stakeholders, and be dependent on the emergence of new evidence and knowledge. During the course of its work, the Lancet Countdown will adopt a collaborative and iterative process, which aims to complement existing initiatives, welcome engagement with new partners, and be open to developing new research projects on health and climate change.

[Does low-risk delivery exist?]

OBJECTIVES

The main objective of our study is to evaluate the rate of call of the obstetrician during childbirth supposed in low-risk and compare it to high-risk deliveries in a maternity service level II. The secondary objective is to assess the level of intervention of the obstetrician with the patient in both groups.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This is a prospective study of 490 patients including 259 classified as low risk based on obstetric criteria of Bourgogne Perinatal Network. The criteria considered for the call and/or intervention of the obstetrician were the following: altered fetal heart rate, lactate scalp, instrumental delivery, cesarean section, complete or complicated perineal, serious event during labor (cord prolapse, uterine rupture…), postpartum hemorrhage treated by prostaglandin ocytocic. The high-risk group is taken as reference for the calculation of confidence intervals.

RESULTS

The rate of call of the obstetrician in the low versus high risk are: 37% [95% CI: 0.98-2.11] and 29% [95% CI: 1.00] (P=0.0587). The rate of intervention of the obstetrician in the low versus high risk is 21% [95% CI: 1.15-3.07] and 12% [95% CI: 1.00] (P=0.0109).

CONCLUSION

The delivery process is unpredictable and potentially risky. Thirty-seven percent of patients classified as low risk at the beginning of labour have required intervention of the obstetrician and 21% of them his intervention.