Infant Whole-Cell Versus Acellular Pertussis Vaccination in 1997 to 1999 and Risk of Childhood Hospitalization for Food-Induced Anaphylaxis: Linked Administrative Databases Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Evidence suggests that children who had received an initial priming dose of whole-cell pertussis (wP) vaccine, rather than acellular pertussis (aP) vaccine, had a lower risk of developing IgE-mediated food allergy, the most common cause of anaphylaxis-related hospital presentations of childhood.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the association between wP versus aP vaccination in infancy and subsequent hospital presentations for anaphylaxis.

METHODS

This study was preregistered under PMID 34874968. Perinatal records for a cohort of New South Wales-born children (1997-1999) receiving their first dose of pertussis-containing vaccine before age 4 months were probabilistically linked to hospital and immunization records. We used adjusted Cox models to estimate hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95% CIs for anaphylaxis-coded hospitalizations.

RESULTS

There were 218,093 New South Wales-born children who received a first dose of wP or aP before age 4 months. Among these children, 86 experienced at least one hospitalization for food-induced anaphylaxis at age 5-15 years (range of events per patient, one to three). The person-time of follow-up was 1,476,969 years, and 665,519 years for children vaccinated with wP as a first dose (wP-1 children) and aP as a first dose (aP-1 children), respectively. The incidence rates for first hospitalization for food anaphylaxis were 3.5 (95% CI, 2.6-4.6) and 5.1 (95% CI, 3.5-7.1) per 100,000 child-years among wP-1 children and aP-1 children, respectively (aHR for wP vs aP = 0.47; 95% CI, 0.26-0.83). For first admission for venom anaphylaxis, the incidence rate was 4.9 (95% CI, 3.9-6.2) per 100,000 child-years among wP-1 children and 5.1 (95% CI, 3.5-7.1) per 100,000 child-years among aP-1 children (aHR for wP vs aP = 0.92; 95% CI, 0.53-1.60), and for all-cause anaphylaxis, the incidence rate was 10.6 (95% CI, 9.0-12.4) per 100,000 child-years among wP-1 children and 12.8 (95% CI, 10.2-15.8) per 100,000 child-years among aP-1 children (aHR for wP vs aP = 0.92; 95% CI, 0.53-1.60).

CONCLUSION

Vaccination with wP in infancy was associated with a lower risk of hospitalizations for food-induced anaphylaxis (and therefore severe IgE-mediated food allergy) occurring in childhood.

Measles, mumps, rubella and varicella antibodies among international and domestic university students

BACKGROUND

Vaccine-preventable infections are generally well controlled in Australia. However, gaps in immunity can lead to outbreaks and are important to identify. Young adults are a highly mobile population and a potential source of imported infections. We aimed to evaluate anti- measles, mumps, rubella and varicella (MMR&V) IgG seroprevalence and explore factors relating to antibody seropositivity.

METHODS

A cross-sectional online survey was conducted among students from a large Australian university to collect demographic, vaccination, infection and travel characteristics. Blood samples were collected to measure MMR&V seroprevalence. Logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with seropositivity.

RESULTS

Among 804 university students, seroprevalence (positive or equivocal) for measles was 82.3% (95% CI 79.6-84.8%), mumps 79.5% (95% CI 76.7-82.3%), rubella 91.5% (95% CI 89.6-93.5%) and varicella 86.2% (95% CI 84.1-88.8%), with 452 (56.2%, 95% CI 52.8-59.6) seropositive to all four viruses. Varicella seropositivity was highest in the older birth cohort (born 1988-1991). Measles seropositivity was higher for international students compared to domestic students. Among international students, mumps seroprevalence was significantly lower than measles and rubella seroprevalence. International travel in the previous 12 months was reported by 63.1% of students, but only 18.2% of travellers reported seeking pre-travel health advice prior to most recent international travel.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, this study suggests immunity to MMR&V is sub-optimal. We found the university student population to be highly mobile and unlikely to seek pre-travel advice; thus, they are a potential source of infection importation. The implementation of university immunization policies could address the gaps identified and our findings can inform the development of targeted vaccination campaigns.

Association between pertussis vaccination in infancy and childhood asthma: A population-based record linkage cohort study

BACKGROUND

Asthma is among the commonest noncommunicable diseases of childhood and often occurs with other atopic comorbidities. A previous case-control study found evidence that compared to children who received acellular pertussis (aP) vaccines in early infancy, children who received one or more doses of whole-cell pertussis (wP) vaccine had lower risk of developing IgE-mediated food allergy. We hypothesized that wP vaccination in early infancy might protect against atopic asthma in childhood.

METHODS

Retrospective record-linkage cohort study of children between 5 and < 15 years old and born between January 1997, and December 1999, in the Australian states of Western Australia (WA) and New South Wales (NSW), receiving wP versus aP vaccine as the first pertussis vaccine dose. The main outcome and measures were first and recurrent hospitalizations for asthma; hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were computed by means of Cox and Andersen and Gill models.

RESULTS

274,405 children aged between 5 and < 15 years old (78.4% NSW-born) received a first dose of either wP (67.8%) or aP vaccine before 4 months old. During the follow-up period, there were 5,905 hospitalizations for asthma among 3,955 children. The incidence rate for first hospitalization was 1.5 (95% CI 1.4-1.5) per 1,000 child-years among children receiving wP vaccine as a first dose, and 1.5 (95% CI 1.4-1.6) among those vaccinated with aP vaccine as a first dose. The adjusted HRs for those who received wP vaccine versus aP vaccine as the first dose were 1.02 (95% CI 0.94-1.12) for first hospitalizations and 1.07 (95% CI 0.95-1.2) for recurrent hospitalizations for asthma.

CONCLUSIONS

We found no convincing evidence of a clinically relevant association between receipt of wP versus aP vaccines in early infancy and hospital presentations for asthma in childhood.

Incremental effectiveness of 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine against pneumonia hospitalisation among Australian Indigenous children: A record linkage study

BACKGROUND

The impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) on pneumonia in children is well-documented but data on 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV23) are lacking. Between 2001 and 2011, Indigenous children in Western Australia (WA) were recommended to receive PPV23 at 18-24 months of age following 3 doses of 7-valent PCV. We evaluated the incremental effectiveness of PPV23 against pneumonia hospitalisation.

METHODS

Indigenous children born in WA between 2001 and 2012 who received PCV dose 3 by 12 months of age were followed from 18 to 60 months of age for the first episode of pneumonia hospitalisation (all-cause and 3 subgroups: presumptive pneumococcal, other specified causes, and unspecified). We used Cox regression modelling to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for pneumonia hospitalisation among children who had, versus had not, received PPV23 between 18 and 30 months of age after adjustment for confounders.

RESULTS

11,120 children had 327 first episodes of all-cause pneumonia hospitalisation, with 15 (4.6%) coded as presumptive pneumococcal, 46 (14.1%) as other specified causes and 266 (81.3%) unspecified. No statistically significant reduction in all-cause pneumonia was seen with PPV23 (HR 1.11; 95% CI: 0.87-1.43), but the direction of the association differed for presumptive pneumococcal (HR 0.47; 95% CI: 0.16-1.35) and specified (HR 0.89; 95% CI: 0.49-1.62) from unspecified causes (HR 1.13; 95% CI: 0.86-1.49). During the baseline period before PPV23 vaccination (12-18 months), all-cause pneumonia risk was higher among PPV23-vaccinated than unvaccinated children (RR: 1.73; 95% CI: 1.30-2.28).

CONCLUSION

In this high-risk population, no statistically significant incremental effect of a PPV23 booster at 18-30 months was observed against hospitalised all-cause pneumonia or the more specific outcome of presumptive pneumococcal pneumonia. Confounding by indication may explain the slight trend towards an increased risk against all-cause pneumonia. Larger studies with better control of confounding are needed to further inform PPV23 vaccination.

COVID-19 Vaccine Uptake by Infection Status in New South Wales, Australia

Using linked public health data from Australia to measure uptake of COVID-19 vaccination by infection status, we found coverage considerably lower among infected than uninfected persons for all ages. Increasing uptake of scheduled doses, including among previously infected persons after the recommended postinfection delay, is needed to reduce COVID-19 illness rates.

Estimating the excess burden of pertussis disease in Australia within the first year of life, that might have been prevented through timely vaccination

BACKGROUND

Previous Australian studies have shown that delayed vaccination with each of the three primary doses of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis-containing vaccines (DTP) is up to 50 % in certain subpopulations. We estimated the excess burden of pertussis that might have been prevented if (i) all primary doses and (ii) each dose was given on time.

METHODS

Perinatal, immunization, pertussis notification and death data were probabilistically linked for 1 412 984 infants born in two Australian states in 2000-12. A DTP dose administered >15 days after the recommended age was considered delayed. We used Poisson regression models to compare pertussis notification rates to 1-year of age in infants with ≥1 dose delayed (Aim 1) or any individual dose delayed (Aim 2) versus a propensity weighted counterfactual on-time cohort.

RESULTS

Of all infants, 42% had ≥1 delayed DTP dose. We estimated that between 39 to 365 days of age, 85 (95% CI: 61-109) cases per 100 000 infants, could have been prevented if all infants with ≥1 delayed dose had received their three doses within the on-time window. Risk of pertussis was higher in the delayed versus the on-time cohort, so crude rates overestimated the excess burden (110 cases per 100 000 infants (95% CI: 95-125)). The estimated dose-specific excess burden per 100 000 infants was 132 for DTP1, 50 for DTP2 and 19 for DTP3.

CONCLUSIONS

We provide robust evidence that improved DTP vaccine timeliness, especially for the first dose, substantially reduces the burden of infant pertussis. Our methodology, using a potential outcomes framework, is applicable to other settings.

Serological testing of blood donors to characterise the impact of COVID-19 in Melbourne, Australia, 2020

Rapidly identifying and isolating people with acute SARS-CoV-2 infection has been a core strategy to contain COVID-19 in Australia, but a proportion of infections go undetected. We estimated SARS-CoV-2 specific antibody prevalence (seroprevalence) among blood donors in metropolitan Melbourne following a COVID-19 outbreak in the city between June and September 2020. The aim was to determine the extent of infection spread and whether seroprevalence varied demographically in proportion to reported cases of infection. The design involved stratified sampling of residual specimens from blood donors (aged 20–69 years) in three postcode groups defined by low (<3 cases/1,000 population), medium (3–7 cases/1,000 population) and high (>7 cases/1,000 population) COVID-19 incidence based on case notification data. All specimens were tested using the Wantai SARS-CoV-2 total antibody assay. Seroprevalence was estimated with adjustment for test sensitivity and specificity for the Melbourne metropolitan blood donor and residential populations, using multilevel regression and poststratification. Overall, 4,799 specimens were collected between 23 November and 17 December 2020. Seroprevalence for blood donors was 0.87% (90% credible interval: 0.25–1.49%). The highest estimates, of 1.13% (0.25–2.15%) and 1.11% (0.28–1.95%), respectively, were observed among donors living in the lowest socioeconomic areas (Quintiles 1 and 2) and lowest at 0.69% (0.14–1.39%) among donors living in the highest socioeconomic areas (Quintile 5). When extrapolated to the Melbourne residential population, overall seroprevalence was 0.90% (0.26–1.51%), with estimates by demography groups similar to those for the blood donors. The results suggest a lack of extensive community transmission and good COVID-19 case ascertainment based on routine testing during Victoria’s second epidemic wave. Residual blood donor samples provide a practical epidemiological tool for estimating seroprevalence and information on population patterns of infection, against which the effectiveness of ongoing responses to the pandemic can be assessed.

Effectiveness of 7-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine Against Invasive Pneumococcal Disease in Medically At-Risk Children in Australia: A Record Linkage Study

BACKGROUND

Children with chronic medical conditions are at higher risk of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), but little is known about the effectiveness of the primary course of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) in these children.

METHODS

A cohort born in 2001-2004 from two Australian states and identified as medically at-risk (MAR) of IPD either using ICD-coded hospitalizations (with conditions of interest identified by 6 months of age) or linked perinatal data (for prematurity) were followed to age 5 years for notified IPD by serotype. We categorized fully vaccinated children as either receiving PCV dose 3 by <12 months of age or ≥1 PCV dose at ≥12 months of age. Cox proportional hazard modeling was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs), adjusted for confounders, and vaccine effectiveness (VE) was estimated as (1-HR) × 100.

RESULTS

A total of 9220 children with MAR conditions had 53 episodes of IPD (43 vaccine-type); 4457 (48.3%) were unvaccinated and 4246 (46.1%) were fully vaccinated, with 1371 (32.3%) receiving dose 3 by 12 months and 2875 (67.7%) having ≥1 dose at ≥12 months. Estimated VE in fully vaccinated children was 85.9% (95% CI: 33.9-97.0) against vaccine-type IPD and 71.5% (95% CI: 26.6-88.9) against all-cause IPD.

CONCLUSION

This is the first population-based study evaluating the effectiveness of PCV in children with MAR conditions using record linkage. Our study provides evidence that the VE for vaccine-type and all-cause IPD in MAR children in Australia is high and not statistically different from previously reported estimates for the general population. This method can be replicated in other countries to evaluate VE in MAR children.

Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies in Australia following the first epidemic wave in 2020: a national survey

Background

As of mid-2021, Australia’s only nation-wide COVID-19 epidemic occurred in the first six months of the pandemic. Subsequently there has been limited transmission in most states and territories. Understanding community spread during the first wave was hampered by initial limitations on testing and surveillance. To characterize the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2-specific antibody seroprevalence generated during this time, we undertook Australia’s largest national SARS-CoV-2 serosurvey.

Methods

Between 19 June-6 August 2020, residual specimens were sampled from people undergoing general pathology testing (all ages), women attending antenatal screening (20–39 years) and blood-donors (20–69 years) based on the Australian population’s age and geographic distributions. Specimens were tested by Wantai total SARS-CoV-2-antibody assay. Seroprevalence estimates adjusted for test performance were produced. SARS-CoV-2 antibody-positive specimens were characterized with microneutralization assays.

Results

Of 11,317 specimens (5132 general pathology; 2972 antenatal; 3213 blood-donors), 71 were positive for SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies. Seroprevalence estimates were 0.47% (95% credible interval: 0.04-0.89%), 0.25% (0.03-0.54%) and 0.23% (0.04-0.54%), respectively. No seropositive specimens had neutralizing antibodies.

Conclusions

Australia’s seroprevalence was extremely low (&lt;0.5%) following the only national COVID-19 wave thus far. These data and the subsequent limited community transmission highlight the population’s naivety to SARS-CoV-2 and the urgency of increasing vaccine-derived protection.

Pertussis immunisation in infancy and atopic outcomes: A protocol for a population-based cohort study using linked administrative data

INTRODUCTION

The burden of IgE-mediated food allergy in Australian born children is reported to be among the highest globally. This illness shares risk factors and frequently coexists with asthma, one of the most common noncommunicable diseases of childhood. Findings from a case-control study suggest that compared to immunisation with acellular pertussis vaccine, early priming of infants with whole-cell pertussis vaccine may be associated with a lower risk of subsequent IgE-mediated food allergy. If whole-cell vaccination is protective of food allergy and other atopic diseases, especially if protective against childhood asthma, the population-level effects could justify its preferential recommendation. However, the potential beneficial effects of whole-cell pertussis vaccination for the prevention of atopic diseases at a population-scale are yet to be investigated.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Analyses of population-based record linkage data will be undertaken to compare the rates of admissions to hospital for asthma in children aged between 5 and 15 years old, who were born in Western Australia (WA) or New South Wales (NSW) between 1997 and 1999 (329,831) when pertussis immunisation in Australia transitioned from whole-cell to acellular only schedules. In the primary analysis we will estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for the time-to-first-event (hospital admissions as above) using Cox proportional hazard models in recipients of a first dose of whole-cell versus acellular pertussis-containing vaccine before 112 days old (~4 months of age). Similarly, we will also fit time-to-recurrent events analyses using Andersen-Gill models, and robust variance estimates to account for potential within-child dependence. Hospitalisations for all-cause anaphylaxis, food anaphylaxis, venom, all-cause urticaria and atopic dermatitis will also be examined in children who received at least one dose of pertussis-containing vaccine by the time of the cohort entry, using analogous statistical methods. Presentations to the emergency departments will be assessed separately using the same statistical approach.

472Long-term effectiveness of 3-dose primary course and 4-year booster dose of pertussis vaccine in Australia

Background

Australia’s National Immunisation Program recommended a 3-dose primary Diphtheria-Tetanus-Pertussis (DTP) vaccination course at 2, 4 and 6 months and a booster dose at 4 years during 2003-2015. We examined vaccine effectiveness by time since doses 3 and 4, as studies to date have shown conflicting results.

Methods

Perinatal, immunisation, pertussis notification and death data were linked for 1,086,319 infants born in two Australian states in 2003-2012. Administration of DTP doses 3 and 4 from 5.5-7 months and 47-53 months respectively, was considered age-appropriate. Adjusted Cox proportional hazards models with time-varying vaccination status were used to estimate vaccine effectiveness (VE = 1–hazard ratio) against notified pertussis post age-appropriate doses 3 and 4 compared to unvaccinated children, with additional benefit of dose 4 compared to receipt of primary course alone.

Results

Dose 3 VE declined from 79% (CI 75%-83%) from 0-6 months to 64% (CI 60%-67%) at 6-36 months and 45% (CI 31%-56%) at 36-42 months post-vaccination. Compared to unvaccinated children, VE after dose 4 declined from 83% (CI 80%-86%) at 0-12 months to 67% (CI 60%-72%) and 55% (CI 46%-63%) in the following two 12-month periods post-vaccination. When compared to dose 3, the relative VE for dose 4 was 58% (CI 51%-64%) in 0-18 months post-vaccination.

Conclusion and Key messages

Our study adds to previous Australian evidence for substantial waning of vaccine induced immunity against pertussis over a 3-year period following dose 3. VE was significantly higher in the 18 months following dose 4 compared to receipt of primary course alone.

473Preventable pertussis burden in Australia within the first year of life by improving vaccination timeliness

Background

Previous Australian studies have shown that on-time Diphtheria-Tetanus-Pertussis (DTP) vaccination coverage is 50-60% in certain subpopulations. We estimated the potentially preventable burden of pertussis if, 1) the full primary course and, 2) each dose was given on-time.

Methods

Perinatal, immunisation, pertussis notification, and death data were linked for 1,412,984 infants born in two Australian states in 2000-2012. A DTP dose administered &gt;15 days after the recommended age was categorised as delayed. For aim 1, pertussis rates up to 1-year of age were compared in infants with ≥1 dose delayed versus all doses on-time, using Poisson regression methods. For aim 2, the expected number of cases preventable by each dose was calculated as the product of the number of cases observed during the period of delay and (1 – dose-specific vaccine effectiveness).

Results

58% of infants had all primary DTP doses on time. We estimated that 85 (95% CI: 61-109) cases per 100,000 infants, aged 39-days to 1-year, could have been prevented if all infants had been vaccinated on time; 77% of these infants had received ≥1 DTP dose within the first year of life. Estimated preventable burden attributable to delayed DTP1 (58/100,000) was higher than for DTP2 (26/100,000) and DTP3 (15/100,000).

Conclusions and Key messages

Poor vaccine timeliness, especially delayed DTP1, is a key contributor to the residual burden of pertussis. These findings can inform cost-benefit analyses of targeted programs and public health messaging to reduce delays.

Levels of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine coverage and indirect protection against invasive pneumococcal disease and pneumonia hospitalisations in Australia: An observational study

BACKGROUND

There is limited empiric evidence on the coverage of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) required to generate substantial indirect protection. We investigate the association between population PCV coverage and indirect protection against invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and pneumonia hospitalisations among undervaccinated Australian children.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Birth and vaccination records, IPD notifications, and hospitalisations were individually linked for children aged <5 years, born between 2001 and 2012 in 2 Australian states (New South Wales and Western Australia; 1.37 million children). Using Poisson regression models, we examined the association between PCV coverage, in small geographical units, and the incidence of (1) 7-valent PCV (PCV7)-type IPD; (2) all-cause pneumonia; and (3) pneumococcal and lobar pneumonia hospitalisation in undervaccinated children. Undervaccinated children received <2 doses of PCV at <12 months of age and no doses at ≥12 months of age. Potential confounding variables were selected for adjustment a priori with the assistance of a directed acyclic graph. There were strong inverse associations between PCV coverage and the incidence of PCV7-type IPD (adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR] 0.967, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.958 to 0.975, p-value < 0.001), and pneumonia hospitalisations (all-cause pneumonia: aIRR 0.991 95% CI 0.990 to 0.994, p-value < 0.001) among undervaccinated children. Subgroup analyses for children <4 months old, urban, rural, and Indigenous populations showed similar trends, although effects were smaller for rural and Indigenous populations. Approximately 50% coverage of PCV7 among children <5 years of age was estimated to prevent up to 72.5% (95% CI 51.6 to 84.4) of PCV7-type IPD among undervaccinated children, while 90% coverage was estimated to prevent 95.2% (95% CI 89.4 to 97.8). The main limitations of this study include the potential for differential loss to follow-up, geographical misclassification of children (based on residential address at birth only), and unmeasured confounders.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we observed substantial indirect protection at lower levels of PCV coverage than previously described-challenging assumptions that high levels of PCV coverage (i.e., greater than 90%) are required. Understanding the association between PCV coverage and indirect protection is a priority since the control of vaccine-type pneumococcal disease is a prerequisite for reducing the number of PCV doses (from 3 to 2). Reduced dose schedules have the potential to substantially reduce program costs while maintaining vaccine impact.

Childhood vaccination coverage in Australia: an equity perspective

BACKGROUND

This study describes trends in social inequities in first dose measles-mumps-rubella (MMR1) vaccination coverage in Western Australia (WA) and New South Wales (NSW). Using probabilistically-linked administrative data for 1.2 million children born between 2002 and 2011, we compared levels and trends in MMR1 vaccination coverage measured at age 24 months by maternal country of birth, Aboriginal status, maternal age at delivery, socio-economic status, and remoteness in two states.

RESULTS

Vaccination coverage was 3-4% points lower among children of mothers who gave birth before the age of 20 years, mothers born overseas, mothers with an Aboriginal background, and parents with a low socio-economic status compared to children that did not belong to these social groups. In both states, between 2007 and 2011 there was a decline of 2.1% points in MMR1 vaccination coverage for children whose mothers were born overseas. In 2011, WA had lower coverage among the Aboriginal population (89.5%) and children of young mothers (89.3%) compared to NSW (92.2 and 92.1% respectively).

CONCLUSION

Despite overall high coverage of MMR1 vaccination, coverage inequalities increased especially for children of mothers born overseas. Strategic immunisation plans and policy interventions are important for equitable vaccination levels. Future policy should target children of mothers born overseas and Aboriginal children.

Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies in Sydney after the first epidemic wave of 2020

OBJECTIVES

To estimate SARS-CoV-2-specific antibody seroprevalence after the first epidemic wave of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Sydney.

SETTING, PARTICIPANTS

People of any age who had provided blood for testing at selected diagnostic pathology services (general pathology); pregnant women aged 20-39 years who had received routine antenatal screening; and Australian Red Cross Lifeblood plasmapheresis donors aged 20-69 years.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study; testing of de-identified residual blood specimens collected during 20 April - 2 June 2020.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Estimated proportions of people seropositive for anti-SARS-CoV-2-specific IgG, adjusted for test sensitivity and specificity.

RESULTS

Thirty-eight of 5339 specimens were IgG-positive (general pathology, 19 of 3231; antenatal screening, 7 of 560; plasmapheresis donors, 12 of 1548); there were no clear patterns by age group, sex, or location of residence. Adjusted estimated seroprevalence among people who had had general pathology blood tests (all ages) was 0.15% (95% credible interval [CrI], 0.04-0.41%), and 0.29% (95% CrI, 0.04-0.75%) for plasmapheresis donors (20-69 years). Among 20-39-year-old people, the age group common to all three collection groups, adjusted estimated seroprevalence was 0.24% (95% CrI, 0.04-0.80%) for the general pathology group, 0.79% (95% CrI, 0.04-1.88%) for the antenatal screening group, and 0.69% (95% CrI, 0.04-1.59%) for plasmapheresis donors.

CONCLUSIONS

Estimated SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence was below 1%, indicating that community transmission was low during the first COVID-19 epidemic wave in Sydney. These findings suggest that early control of the spread of COVID-19 was successful, but efforts to reduce further transmission remain important.

Estimating pneumococcal vaccine coverage among Australian Indigenous children and children with medically at-risk conditions using record linkage

BACKGROUND

Risk-based recommendations are common for pneumococcal vaccines but little is known about their uptake. In Australia, pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) was funded only for Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander (Indigenous) children and those with underlying medical conditions in 2001, and then there were different booster dose recommendations depending on risk after the introduction of universal PCV vaccination in 2005.

METHODS

We measured coverage of PCV dose 3 and additional PCV and 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV23) doses by risk group among children born in July 2001-December 2012 in two Australian states using linked immunisation and hospitalisation data (available until December 2013). We ascertained medical risk conditions using hospitalisation diagnosis codes and Indigenous status using an established algorithm, comparing coverage for children born pre (2001-2004) and post (2005-2012) universal PCV funding.

RESULTS

Among 1.3 million children, 63,897 (4.9%) were Indigenous and 32,934 (2.5%) had at least one medically at-risk condition identified by age 6 months. For births in 2001-2004, coverage for PCV dose 3 by 1 year of age was 37% for Indigenous, 15% for medically at-risk and 11% in other children, increasing to 83%, 91% and 92%, respectively for births in 2005-2012. In children with medically at-risk conditions, PCV dose 4 coverage by 2 years was 1% for 2001-2004 births, increasing to 9% for 2005-2012 births, with PPV23 coverage by 6 years 3% in both cohorts. Among eligible Indigenous children, PPV23 coverage by 3 years was 45% for 2001-2004 births and 51% for 2005-2012 births.

CONCLUSIONS

Coverage with additional recommended booster doses was very low among children with medical conditions, and only modest among Indigenous children. If additional PCV doses are recommended for some risk groups, especially in the context of routine schedules with reduced doses (e.g. 2 + 1 and 1 + 1), measures to improve implementation will be required.

Women's empowerment is associated with maternal nutrition and low birth weight: evidence from Bangladesh Demographic Health Survey

Background

The burden of maternal undernutrition and low birth weight (LBW) incurs enormous economic costs due to their adverse consequences. Women’s empowerment is believed to be one of the key factors for attaining maternal and child health and nutritional goals. Our objective was to investigate the association of women’s empowerment with maternal undernutrition and LBW.

Methods

We used nationally representative data from the Bangladesh Demographic Health Survey for 2011 and 2014. We analysed 27357 women and 9234 mother-child pairs. A women’s empowerment index (WEI) was constructed using principal component analysis with five groups of indicators: a) education, b) access to socio-familial decision making, c) economic contribution and access to economic decision making, d) attitudes towards domestic violence and e) mobility. We estimated odds ratios as the measure of association between the WEI and the outcome measures using generalized estimating equations to account for the cluster level correlation.

Results

The overall prevalence of maternal undernutrition was 20% and LBW was 18%. The WEI was significantly associated with both maternal undernutrition and LBW with a dose-response relationship. The adjusted odds of having a LBW baby was 32% [AOR (95% CI): 0.68 (0.57, 0.82)] lower in the highest quartile of the WEI relative to the lowest quartile. Household wealth significantly modified the effect of the WEI on maternal nutrition; in the highest wealth quintile, the odds of maternal undernutrition was 54% [AOR (95% CI): 0.46 (0.33, 0.64)] lower while in the lowest wealth quintile the odds of undernutrition was only 18% [AOR (95% CI): 0.82 (0.67, 1.00)] lower comparing the highest WEI quartile with the lowest WEI quartile. However, the absolute differences in prevalence of undernutrition between the highest and lowest WEI quartiles were similar across wealth quintiles (6–8%).

Conclusions

This study used a comprehensive measure of women’s empowerment and provides strong evidence that low levels of women’s empowerment are associated with maternal undernutrition as well as with delivering LBW babies in Bangladesh. Therefore, policies to increase empowerment of women would contribute to improved public health.

Hepatitis E as a cause of adult hospitalization in Bangladesh: Results from an acute jaundice surveillance study in six tertiary hospitals, 2014-2017

In the absence of reliable data on the burden of hepatitis E virus (HEV) in high endemic countries, we established a hospital-based acute jaundice surveillance program in six tertiary hospitals in Bangladesh to estimate the burden of HEV infection among hospitalized acute jaundice patients aged ≥14 years, identify seasonal and geographic patterns in the prevalence of hepatitis E, and examine factors associated with death.

We collected blood specimens from enrolled acute jaundice patients, defined as new onset of either yellow eyes or skin during the past three months of hospital admission, and tested for immunoglobulin M (IgM) antibodies against HEV, HBV and HAV. The enrolled patients were followed up three months after hospital discharge to assess their survival status; pregnant women were followed up three months after their delivery to assess pregnancy outcomes. From December’2014 to September’2017, 1925 patients with acute jaundice were enrolled; 661 (34%) had acute hepatitis E, 48 (8%) had hepatitis A, and 293 (15%) had acute hepatitis B infection. Case fatality among hepatitis E patients was 5% (28/589). Most of the hepatitis E cases were males (74%; 486/661), but case fatality was higher among females—12% (8/68) among pregnant and 8% (7/91) among non-pregnant women. Half of the patients who died with acute hepatitis E had co-infection with HAV or HBV. Of the 62 HEV infected mothers who were alive until the delivery, 9 (15%) had miscarriage/stillbirth, and of those children who were born alive, 19% (10/53) died, all within one week of birth. This study confirms that hepatitis E is the leading cause of acute jaundice, leads to hospitalizations in all regions in Bangladesh, occurs throughout the year, and is associated with considerable morbidity and mortality. Effective control measures should be taken to reduce the risk of HEV infections including improvements in water quality, sanitation and hygiene practices and the introduction of HEV vaccine to high-risk groups.

In the absence of reliable surveillance data on the burden of hepatitis E in endemic countries, we conducted a hospital-based acute jaundice surveillance study over a two and a half year period in six tertiary hospitals in Bangladesh. The study confirms that HEV infections occur throughout the year, and is a major (34%) cause of acute jaundice in tertiary hospitals in Bangladesh. Three-quarters of the acute hepatitis E cases were male, and HEV infection was higher among patients residing in urban areas than patients in rural areas (41% vs 32%). The overall case fatality rate of acute HEV infections in hospitals was 5%, but was higher among pregnant women (12%). Hepatitis E patients who died were more likely to have co-infection with HAV or HBV than the HEV infected patients who did not die. Fifteen percent of HEV infected mothers had miscarriage/stillbirth. Of the children who were born alive, 19% died, all within one week of birth. Considering the high burden of hepatitis E among hospitalized acute jaundice patients, Bangladesh could take control measures to reduce this risk including improvements in water quality, sanitation and hygiene practices and the introduction of hepatitis E vaccine in high-risk areas.

Coxiella burnetii seroprevalence in unvaccinated veterinary workers in Australia: Evidence to support Q fever vaccination

Q fever (caused by Coxiella burnetii) is a serious zoonotic disease that occurs almost worldwide. Occupational contact with animals increases the risk of exposure, and Q fever vaccination is recommended for veterinary workers in Australia. This study aimed to investigate C. burnetii seroprevalence among unvaccinated veterinary workers in Australia and determine factors associated with a positive serological result. During 2014 and 2015, convenience sampling at veterinary conferences and workplace vaccination clinics was undertaken. Participants completed a questionnaire and provided a blood sample for C. burnetii serology. Participants were predominantly veterinarians (77%), but veterinary support staff, animal scientists, and administration workers also participated. Blood samples (n = 192) were analysed by an immunofluorescence assay and considered positive where the phase I or phase II IgG titre was ≥1/50. Seroprevalence was 19% (36/192; 95% CI 14%-25%). A positive serological result was significantly associated with (a) working in outer regional/remote areas (odds ratio [OR] 6.2; 95% CI 1.9-20.8; reference = major cities; p = .009) and (b) having spent more than 50% of total career working with ruminants (OR 4.8; 95% CI 1.7-13.5; reference = <15% of career; p = .025). These findings confirm an increased risk of exposure to C. burnetii compared to the general population, providing new evidence to support Q fever vaccination of veterinary workers in Australia.

Infant, maternal and demographic predictors of delayed vaccination: A population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Receiving vaccines at or close to their due date (vaccination timeliness) is a now key measure of program performance. However, studies comprehensively examining predictors of delayed infant vaccination are lacking. We aimed to identify predictors of short and longer-term delays in diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP) vaccination by dose number and ethnicity.

METHODS

Perinatal, notification, death and immunisation databases were linked for 1.3 million births in 2000-11 from two Australian states (Western Australia and New South Wales), with follow-up data until 2013. Ordinal logistic regression was used to estimate adjusted relative risks (RR) by degree of delay. Separate models were constructed for each vaccine dose and for Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal children.

RESULTS

Each dose-specific cohort included at least 49,000 Aboriginal and 1.1 million non-Aboriginal children. Delayed receipt was more common among Aboriginal than non-Aboriginal children (eg for the first dose of DTP [DTP1] 19.4 v 8.1%). Risk factors for delayed vaccination were strongest for DTP1, and delayed receipt of DTP1 was a key driver of subsequent delays; every week DTP1 was delayed was associated with a 1.6 to 2-fold increased risk of delayed DTP2 receipt. For DTP1, ≥3 previous pregnancies (the only factor more strongly associated with longer than shorter delays; RR ≥5 compared to no previous pregnancies), and children born to mothers <20 years of age (RR ≥2 compared to ≥35 years) were at highest risk of delay. Other independent predictors were prematurity, maternal smoking during pregnancy, and being born in Western Australia (if Aboriginal) or another country in the Oceania region.

CONCLUSION

The sub-populations at risk for delayed vaccination we have identified are likely generalisable to other high-income settings. Measures to improve their dose 1 timeliness, particularly for children with older siblings, are likely to have significant flow-on benefits for timeliness of later doses.

A Low-Cost, Community Knowledge Approach to Estimate Maternal and Jaundice-Associated Mortality in Rural Bangladesh

In the absence of a civil registration system, a house-to-house survey is often used to estimate cause-specific mortality in low- and middle-income countries. However, house-to-house surveys are resource and time intensive. We applied a low-cost community knowledge approach to identify maternal deaths from any cause and jaundice-associated deaths among persons aged ≥ 14 years, and stillbirths and neonatal deaths in mothers with jaundice during pregnancy in five rural communities in Bangladesh. We estimated the method's sensitivity and cost savings compared with a house-to-house survey. In the five communities with a total of 125,570 population, we identified 13 maternal deaths, 60 deaths among persons aged ≥ 14 years associated with jaundice, five neonatal deaths, and four stillbirths born to a mother with jaundice during pregnancy over the 3-year period before the survey using the community knowledge approach. The sensitivity of community knowledge method in identifying target deaths ranged from 80% for neonatal deaths to 100% for stillbirths and maternal deaths. The community knowledge approach required 36% of the staff time to undertake compared with the house-to-house survey. The community knowledge approach was less expensive but highly sensitive in identifying maternal and jaundice-associated mortality, as well as all-cause adult mortality in rural settings in Bangladesh. This method can be applied in rural settings of other low- and middle-income countries and, in conjunction with hospital-based hepatitis diagnoses, used to monitor the impact of programs to reduce the burden of cause-specific hepatitis mortality, a current World Health Organization priority.

Timeliness and factors associated with rotavirus vaccine uptake among Australian Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal children: A record linkage cohort study

OBJECTIVES

Rotavirus vaccines (RV), included in Australia's National Immunisation Program from mid-July 2007, are unique in strict time limits for administration. Here, we report on timeliness of RV uptake, compare cumulative RV coverage to age 12 months with DTPa, and assess factors associated with receipt of RV among Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal children.

METHODS

Birth records for 681,456 children born in two Australian states in 2007-2012 were probabilistically linked to national immunisation records. We assessed on-time coverage (defined as receipt of vaccine dose between 4 days prior to scheduled date and the recommended upper limit) for RV and compared this to diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTPa) vaccine. Logistic regression modelling was used to assess independent determinants of receipt of RV.

RESULTS

Compared to non-Aboriginal infants, on-time RV coverage was lower for all doses among Aboriginal infants. Post the upper age limit of RV dose2, DTPa dose2 coverage increased by 9-16% to ≥90%, whereas RV coverage remained around 77% (Aboriginal) and 85% (non-Aboriginal). Compared to first-born children, the adjusted odds of receiving ≥1 RV dose if born to a mother with ≥3 previous births was 0.30 (95%CI: 0.27-0.34) among Aboriginal, and 0.53 (95%CI: 0.51-0.55) among non-Aboriginal children. Prematurity (<33 weeks), low birthweight (<1500 g), maternal age <20 years, maternal smoking during pregnancy and living in a disadvantaged area were independently associated with decreased vaccine uptake.

CONCLUSIONS

Aboriginal children are at greater risk of rotavirus disease than non-Aboriginal children and delayed vaccine receipt is substantially higher. Although specific programs targeting groups at risk of delayed vaccination might improve RV coverage, relaxation of upper age restrictions is most readily implementable, and its overall risk-benefit should be evaluated.

Effectiveness of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine against hospital admissions for pneumonia in Australian children: a retrospective, population-based, record-linked cohort study

BACKGROUND

Reductions in pneumonia hospitalisations following introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) have been reported from high-incidence and low-incidence settings but long-term data comparing vaccinated with unvaccinated children are sparse.

METHODS

We did a retrospective, population-based, record-linkage cohort study in Australian children using administrative health data from the Western Australian Midwives' Notification System and New South Wales Perinatal Data Collection, and the birth and death registries in both states. PCV vaccination details, pneumonia-coded hospital admissions, and invasive pneumococcal disease notification records were individually linked for children born between 2001 and 2012. The primary outcome was defined as the first hospital admission for all-cause pneumonia. Cox models were used to calculate adjusted hazard ratios (HR) to estimate the effect of PCV doses on pneumonia-coded hospital admissions by Aboriginal status, birth period, remoteness, and pneumonia diagnostic category in children younger than 2 years. Person-time of follow-up time for each child started at birth and was censored at the earliest of first hospital admission for all-cause pneumonia, death, invalid PCV dose, when the child reached age 24 months, or the end date of the study period (Dec 31, 2013) FINDINGS: The study cohort comprised 1 365 893 children liveborn between Jan 1, 2001, and Dec 31, 2012, of whom 66 484 (4·9%) were identified as Aboriginal. The overall rate for all-cause pneumonia hospital admissions for children younger than 2 years over the entire study period was 17·6/1000 child-years in Aboriginal children and 5·5/1000 child-years in non-Aboriginal children. Compared with children born between 2001 and 2004 (ie, the pre-universal PCV period), the incidence of pneumonia-coded hospital admissions decreased in both vaccinated (6·5 vs 5·7 per 1000 child-years [12% reduction, 95% CI 3-21; p=0·01]) and unvaccinated non-Aboriginal children (6·8 vs 3·7 [45% reduction; 41-49]) born 2005-12 (the universal PCV period); among Aboriginal children, declines were significant only among those vaccinated (27·4 vs 14·1 [49% reduction, 40-55]). Among Aboriginal children born 2005-12, the risk of pneumonia-coded hospital admission after three doses of PCV was lower than those unvaccinated (adjusted HR 0·83, 95% CI 0·65-0·99) but, among non-Aboriginal children, the risk was similar (adjusted HR 1·09, 0·98-1·22). Overall, remote-born Aboriginal children had the highest incidence of hospital admission for pneumonia and among children born 2005-12, the adjusted risk was 37% lower (adjusted HR 0·63, 95% CI 0·42-0·96) among those fully vaccinated than those unvaccinated.

INTERPRETATION

Reductions in pneumonia-coded hospital admissions in unvaccinated children predominated in non-Aboriginal children with low incidence of pneumonia but were not significant in Aboriginal children with high incidence. These findings have potential implications for measuring PCV effect using a non-specific endpoint such as all-cause pneumonia in high-incidence populations.

FUNDING

Commonwealth Government Collaborative Research Infrastructure Strategy and Education Investment Fund Super Science Initiative and the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

Influenza vaccination coverage in a population-based cohort of Australian-born Aboriginal and non-Indigenous older adults

Background: There is limited information on vaccination coverage and characteristics associated with vaccine uptake in Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander adults. We aimed to provide more current estimates of influenza vaccination coverage in Aboriginal adults. Methods: Self-reported vaccination status (n=559 Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander participants, n=80,655 non-Indigenous participants) from the 45 and Up Study, a large cohort of adults aged 45 years or older, was used to compare influenza vaccination coverage in Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander adults with coverage in non-Indigenous adults. Results: Of Aboriginal and non-Indigenous respondents aged 49 to <65 years, age-standardised influenza coverage was respectively 45.2% (95% CI 39.5–50.9%) and 38.5%, (37.9–39.0%), p-value for heterogeneity=0.02. Coverage for Aboriginal and non-Indigenous respondents aged ≥65 years was respectively 67.3% (59.9–74.7%) and 72.6% (72.2–73.0%), p-heterogeneity=0.16. Among Aboriginal adults, coverage was higher in obese than in healthy weight participants (adjusted odds ratio (aOR)=2.38, 95%CI 1.44–3.94); in those aged <65 years with a medical risk factor than in those without medical risk factors (aOR=2.13, 1.37–3.30); and in those who rated their health as fair/poor compared to those who rated it excellent (aOR=2.57, 1.26–5.20). Similar associations were found among non-Indigenous adults. Conclusions: In this sample of adults ≥65 years, self-reported influenza vaccine coverage was not significantly different between Aboriginal and non-Indigenous adults whereas in those <65 years, coverage was higher among Aboriginal adults. Overall, coverage in the whole cohort was suboptimal. If these findings are replicated in other samples and in the Australian Immunisation Register, it suggests that measures to improve uptake, such as communication about the importance of influenza vaccine and more effective reminder systems, are needed among adults.

Varicella vaccine effectiveness over 10 years in Australia; moderate protection from 1-dose program

OBJECTIVES

To examine the impact of Australia's single dose infant varicella vaccination program, we assessed single dose varicella vaccine effectiveness (VE) in preventing hospitalised disease using two methods.

METHODS

Clinically confirmed varicella cases from the Paediatric Active Enhanced Disease Surveillance (PAEDS) sentinel network were age-matched to 20 controls obtained from the Australian Immunisation Register. Conditional logistic regression models were used to estimate VE and compared with estimates obtained using our second approach.

RESULTS

There were 78 hospitalised varicella cases during the post vaccine introduction period from January 2008 to December 2015, who were eligible for funded varicella vaccination. Median age at onset was 4.5 years and more than half (59%) were vaccinated. The majority of children received one vaccine brand (Varilrix, GSK). The estimated case-control VE for one dose of vaccine against hospitalised varicella was 64.7% (95% CI: 43.3-78.0%); estimates using the screening method were not significantly different. Exclusion of children who were immunocompromised did not significantly alter VE estimates.

CONCLUSIONS

Although Australia's program has impacted on the burden of varicella disease, single dose VE against varicella hospitalisation is only moderate. Greater reductions in varicella disease could potentially be achieved by incorporation of a second vaccine dose into the program to minimise breakthrough disease and interrupt virus circulation.

Measles control in Australia - threats, opportunities and future needs

Control of measles was the focus of a national workshop held in 2015 in Sydney, Australia, bringing together stakeholders in disease control and immunisation to discuss maintaining Australia's measles elimination status in the context of regional and global measles control. The global epidemiology of measles was reviewed, including outbreaks in countries that have achieved elimination, such as the Disneyland outbreak in the United States and large outbreaks in Sydney, Australia. Transmission of measles between Australia and New Zealand occurs, but has not been a focus of control measures. Risk groups, the genetic and seroepidemiology of measles as well as surveillance, modelling and waning vaccine-induced immunity were reviewed. Gaps in policy, research and practice for maintaining measles elimination status in Australia were identified and recommendations were developed. Elimination of measles globally is challenging because of the infectiousness of measles and the need for 2-dose vaccine coverage rates in excess of 95% in all countries to achieve it. Until this occurs, international travel will continue to permit measles importation from endemic countries to countries that have achieved elimination. When measles cases are imported, failure to diagnose and isolate cases places the health system at risk of measles outbreaks. Vaccine funding models can result in gaps in vaccine coverage for adults and migrants. Australia introduced a whole-of-life immunisation register in 2016 and catch-up vaccination for at-risk communities, which will improve measles control. Research on diagnosis, immunology, case management and modelling of vaccination strategies are important to ensure continued control of measles.

Willingness of veterinarians in Australia to recommend Q fever vaccination in veterinary personnel: Implications for workplace health and safety compliance

Q fever vaccine uptake among veterinary nurses in Australia is low, suggesting veterinarians are not recommending the vaccination to veterinary personnel. This study aimed to determine the willingness of veterinarians to recommend Q fever vaccination to veterinary personnel and to identify factors influencing Q fever vaccine uptake by veterinary nurses in Australia. An online cross sectional survey targeted veterinarians and veterinary nurses in Australia in 2014. Responses were analysed using multivariable logistic regression. Factors significantly (p<0.05) associated with a willingness to recommend the vaccination, expressed by 35% (95% CI 31-38%) of veterinarians (n = 828), were (1) being very concerned for colleagues regarding Coxiella burnetii (OR 4.73), (2) disagreeing the vaccine is harmful (OR 3.80), (3) high Q fever knowledge (OR 2.27), (4) working within small animal practice (OR 1.67), (5) disagreeing the vaccine is expensive (OR 1.55), and (6) age, with veterinarians under 39 years most likely to recommend vaccination. Of the veterinary nursing cohort who reported a known Q fever vaccination status (n = 688), 29% (95% CI 26-33%) had sought vaccination. This was significantly (p<0.05) associated with (1) agreeing the vaccine is important (OR 8.34), (2) moderate/high Q fever knowledge (OR 5.51), (3) working in Queensland (OR 4.00), (4) working within livestock/mixed animal practice (OR 3.24), (5) disagreeing the vaccine is expensive (OR 1.86), (6) strong reliance on work culture for biosecurity information (OR 2.5), (7) perceiving personal exposure to Coxiella burnetii to be at least low/moderate (OR 2.14), and (8) both agreeing the vaccine is safe and working within a corporate practice structure (OR 4.28). The study identified the need for veterinarians to take greater responsibility for workplace health and safety promotion, and calls for better education of veterinary personnel to raise awareness of the potential for occupational exposure to C. burnetii and improve the perception of the Q fever vaccine as being important, safe and cost-effective.

Assessment of on-time vaccination coverage in population subgroups: A record linkage cohort study

Reported infant vaccination coverage at age 12 months in Australia is >90%. On-time coverage of the 2-4-6 month schedule and coverage in specific populations is rarely reported. We conducted a population-based cohort study of 1.9 million Australian births, 1996-2012, combining individual birth and perinatal records with immunisation records through probabilistic linkage. We assessed on-time coverage across 13 demographic and perinatal characteristics of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis vaccines (DTP) defined as vaccination 14 days prior to the scheduled due date, to 30 days afterwards. On-time DTP vaccination coverage in non-Aboriginal infants was 88.1% for the 2-month dose, 82.0% for 4-month dose, and 76.7% for 6-month dose; 3-dose coverage was 91.3% when assessed at 12 months. On-time DTP coverage for Aboriginal infants was 77.0%, 66.5%, and 61.0% for the 2-4-6 month dose; 3-dose coverage at 12 months was 79.3%. Appreciable differences in on-time coverage were observed across population subgroups. On-time coverage in non-Aboriginal infants born to mothers with ≥3 previous pregnancies was 62.5% for the 6-month dose (47.9% for Aboriginal infants); up to 23.5 percentage points lower than for first-borns. Infants born to mothers who smoked during pregnancy had coverage 8.7-10.3 percentage points lower than infants born to non-smoking mothers for the 4- and 6-month dose. A linear relationship was apparent between increasing socio-economic disadvantage and decreasing on-time coverage. On-time coverage of the 2-4-6 month schedule is only 50-60% across specific population subgroups representing a significant avoidable public health risk. Aboriginal infants, multiparous mothers, and those who are socio-economically disadvantaged are key groups most likely to benefit from targeted programs addressing vaccine timeliness.

Australian rubella serosurvey 2012-2013: On track for elimination?

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization has targeted rubella virus for elimination regionally. Australia was one of the first countries to implement a nationally funded rubella immunisation program, in 1971, and conducts regular national rubella serosurveillance studies. We aimed to estimate the seroprevalence of rubella-specific IgG antibody in the Australian population by age and sex in 2012-2013, to compare the results with three previous serosurveys conducted in 1996-1999, 2002 and 2007 and to estimate the effective reproduction numbers (R_n).

METHODS

This study used 2729 serum and plasma specimens, randomly selected from a specimen bank collected in 2012-2013 across Australia. Age groups included in the sample ranged from 1 to 49 years. Sera were tested for rubella-specific IgG-antibody using the Enzygnost anti-rubella IgG enzyme immunoassay and classified as positive, negative or equivocal according to rubella-specific IgG concentrations of >7 IU/ml, <3 IU/ml and 3-7 IU/ml, respectively.

RESULTS

The overall proportions seropositive, seronegative and equivocal for rubella-specific IgG were 92.1% (95% CI, 91.0-93.2), 6.7% (95% CI, 5.7-7.7) and 1.2% (95% CI, 0.8-1.6), respectively. The proportion of males seropositive was significantly lower than females in the 30-34 (83.1% vs. 96.8%, p = 0.003), 35-39 (86.1% vs. 96.3%, p = 0.02) and 40-44 (86.1% vs. 95.7%, p = 0.03) year age groups. R_n for rubella in 2012-2013 was estimated to be 0.33 (95% CI 0.28-0.39).

DISCUSSION

The 2012-2013 national serosurvey showed levels of rubella-specific IgG seropositivity in the Australian population are relatively high with no evidence of decrease compared to previous serosurveys conducted in 1996-1999, 2002 and 2007. The lower proportion of seropositive males aged 30-44 years likely reflects the initial immunisation program targeting females only. To our knowledge this study represents the longest period of serosurveillance following introduction of a nationally funded rubella immunisation program. The lack of evidence of decreasing rubella-specific IgG seropositivity is therefore reassuring for Australia and other countries with longstanding high vaccine coverage.

Effectiveness of a 3 + 0 pneumococcal conjugate vaccine schedule against invasive pneumococcal disease among a birth cohort of 1.4 million children in Australia

BACKGROUND

Most studies use indirect cohort or case-control methods to estimate vaccine effectiveness (VE) of 7- and 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV7 and PCV13) against invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD). Neither method can measure the benefit vaccination programs afford the unvaccinated and many studies were unable to estimate dose-specific VE. We linked Australia's national immunisation register with health data from two states to calculate IPD incidence by vaccination status and VE for a 3 + 0 PCV schedule (doses at 2, 4, 6 months, no booster) among a cohort of 1.4 million births.

METHODS

Births records for 2001-2012 were probabilistically linked to IPD notifications, hospitalisations, deaths, and vaccination history (available until December 2013). IPD rates in vaccinated and unvaccinated children <2 years old were compared using Cox proportional hazards models (adjusting for potential confounders), with VE = (1 - adjusted hazard ratio) × 100. Separate models were performed for all-cause, PCV7, PCV13 and PCV13-non-PCV7 serotype-specific IPD, and for Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal children.

RESULTS

Following introduction of universal PCV7 in 2005, rates of PCV7 serotype and all-cause IPD in unvaccinated children declined 89.5% and 61.4%, respectively, to be similar to rates in vaccinated children. Among non-Aboriginal children, VEs for 3 doses were 94.2% (95%CI: 81.9-98.1) for PCV7 serotype-specific IPD, 85.6% (95%CI: 60.5-94.8) for PCV13-non-PCV7 serotype-specific IPD and 80.1% (95%CI: 59.4-90.3) for all-cause IPD. There were no statistically significant differences between the VEs for 3 doses and for 1 or 2 doses against PCV13 and PCV13-non-PCV7 serotype-specific IPD, or between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal children.

CONCLUSION

Our population-based cohort study demonstrates that >90% coverage in the first year of a universal 3 + 0 PCV program provided high population-level protection, predominantly attributable to strong herd effects. The size of the cohort enabled calculation of robust dose-specific VE estimates for important population sub-groups relevant to vaccination policies internationally.

Declining measles antibodies in the era of elimination: Australia's experience

BACKGROUND

Australia is one of only a few countries with a long-standing and consistent serosurveillance program. We conducted a national serosurvey in 2012-2013 to estimate population seroprevalence of measles-specific IgG and the effective reproduction number, R, and compare the results with the three previous serosurveys (1996-1999, 2002 and 2007) to examine trends following a decade of sustained measles control.

METHODS

2729 residual sera from 1 to 49 year olds were tested using the Enzygnost anti-measles IgG enzyme immunoassay (EIA). All sera in the equivocal range by EIA on re-testing and a random sample of low positive and negative sera were later tested by a microneutralisation assay. R was calculated from weighted estimates of the proportion seronegative by age using a previously developed contact matrix.

RESULTS

In the 2012-13 serosurvey, anti-measles IgG seropositivity for 1-49 year olds was 80.8% (95% CI: 79.4-82.3%) and 8.9% (95% CI: 7.8-10.0%) had equivocal antibody levels. The increasing proportion of seronegative and equivocal individuals in age groups 10-39 years continued a trend seen in previous serosurveys. There was also an increase in equivocal results among 2-4 and 5-9 year old children, >90% of whom were recently vaccinated. R increased from 0.57 in 1999 to above the epidemic threshold of 1 in 2012-13 (R = 1.7). All 20 EIA negative sera, 238/241 (98.8%) equivocal sera, and 89/92 (96.7%) low positive sera had a titre <10 (negative) in the measles microneutralisation assay.

CONCLUSIONS

A number of countries with sustained measles control have now demonstrated that measles-specific IgG antibodies decline with time since vaccination. As there is good epidemiologic evidence of population-level protection, the implications of declining measles-specific IgG antibody levels for maintaining measles elimination are unclear. Novel studies to determine correlates of protection against measles transmission and disease in the post-elimination era are needed to help answer this question.

Evaluation of Combination Measles-Mumps-Rubella-Varicella Vaccine Introduction in Australia

IMPORTANCE

Incorporating combination vaccines, such as the measles-mumps-rubella-varicella (MMRV) vaccine, into immunization schedules should be evaluated from a benefit-risk perspective. Use of MMRV vaccine poses challenges due to a recognized increased risk of febrile seizures (FSs) when used as the first dose in the second year of life. Conversely, completion by age 2 years of measles, mumps, rubella, and varicella immunization may offer improved disease control.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the effect on safety and coverage of earlier (age 18 months) scheduling of MMRV vaccine as the second dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV) in Australia.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Prospective active sentinel safety surveillance comparing the relative incidence (RI) of FSs in toddlers given MMRV and measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) and a national cohort study of vaccine coverage rates and timeliness before and after MMRV vaccine introduction were conducted. All Australian children aged 11 to 72 months were included in the coverage analysis, and 1471 Australian children aged 11 to 59 months were included in the FS analysis, with a focus on those aged 11 to 23 months.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

MMRV vaccine safety, specifically, the RI of FSs after MMRV vaccine at age 18 months, compared with risk following MMR vaccine and vaccine uptake for 2-dose MCV and single-dose varicella vaccine, focusing on timeliness.

RESULTS

Of the 1471 children, the median age at first FS was 21 months (interquartile range [IQR], 14-31 months). Three hundred ninety-one children were aged 11 to 23 months and had at least 1 FS included in the analysis; of these, 207 (52.9%) were male. A total of 278 children (71.1%) had received MMR followed by MMRV vaccine, 97 (24.8%) had received MMR vaccine only, and 16 (4.1%) had received neither vaccine. There was no increased risk of FSs (RI, 1.08; 95% CI, 0.55-2.13) in the 5 to 12 days following MMRV vaccine given as the second MCV to toddlers. Febrile seizures occurred after dose 1 of MMR vaccine at a known low increased risk (RI, 2.71; 95% CI, 1.71- 4.29). Following program implementation, 2-dose MCV coverage at age 36 months exceeded that obtained at age 60 months in historical cohorts recommended to receive MMR vaccine before school entry, and on-time vaccination increased by 13.5% (from 58.9% to 72.4%). Despite no change in the scheduled age of varicella vaccine, use of MMRV vaccine was associated with a 4.0% increase in 1-dose varicella vaccine coverage.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide evidence of the absence of an association between use of MMRV vaccine as the second dose of MCV in toddlers and an increased risk of FSs. Incorporation of MMRV vaccine has facilitated improvements in vaccine coverage that will potentially improve disease control.

Probabilistic linkage of national immunisation and state-based health records for a cohort of 1.9 million births to evaluate Australia's childhood immunisation program

Introduction

Several countries have developed national immunisation registers, but only the Nordic countries have linked their registers to other health data in order to comprehensively evaluate the `real world' effectiveness of vaccines. Nordic countries can link datasets deterministically using the national person identifier, but most countries, including Australia, don't have such an identifier to enable this type of linkage.

Objectives

To describe the process for assembling a linked study cohort that will enable the conduct of population-based studies related to immunisation and immunisation policy.

Methods

National death and immunisation databases along with state health data (notifications of vaccine preventable diseases, perinatal data, hospital admissions and emergency department presentations) up until December 2013 were probabilistically linked (using demographic details) for children born between 1996 and 2012 in two states: Western Australia and New South Wales (42% of Australia's population, combined).

Results

After exclusions there were 1.95 million children in the study cohort (live born children with both a birth and perinatal record which represents 97.5% of all live births in the state perinatal data collections - our source population) and 18.0 million person years of follow up (mean: 9.2 years per child). The characteristics of children in the cohort were generally similar to those only included in state perinatal databases and outcome measures were in keeping with expected figures from unlinked data sources. However, the lack of a dynamic national population register meant immigrants could not be included.

Conclusions

We have been able to develop a similarly comprehensive system to the Nordic countries based on probabilistic linkage methods. Our experience should provide encouragement to other countries with national immunisation registers looking to establish similar systems.

Patterns of Drug Use and Drug-related Hospital Admissions in HIV-Positive and -Negative Gay and Bisexual Men

We aimed to compare rates of illicit drug-related hospitalisations in HIV-negative (HIV-ve) (n = 1325) and HIV-positive (HIV+ve) (n = 557) gay and bisexual men (GBM) with rates seen in the general male population and to examine the association between self-reported illicit drug use and drug-related hospitalisation. Participants were asked how often they used a range of illicit drugs in the previous 6 months at annual interviews. Drug-related hospital admissions were defined as hospital admissions for mental or behavioural disorders due to illicit drug use (ICD 10: F11-16, F18, F19), drug poisoning (T40-T45, T50) or toxic effect of gases (T53, T59, T65). Drug-related hospitalisations were 4.8 times higher in the HIV-ve cohort [SIR 4.75 (95 % CI 3.30-6.91)] and 3.5 times higher in the HIV+ve cohort [SIR 3.51 (1.92-5.88)] compared with the general population. Periods of weekly drug use [IRR 1.86 (1.01-3.46)], poly-drug use [IRR 2.17 (1.07-4.38)] and cannabis use [low use-IRR 1.95 (1.01-3.77), high use-IRR 2.58 (1.29-5.16)] were associated with drug-related hospitalisation in both cohorts, as was being a consistently high meth/amphetamine user throughout follow-up [IRR 3.24 (1.07-9.83)] and being an inconsistent or consistent injecting drug user throughout follow-up [IRR 3.94 (1.61-9.66), IRR 4.43(1.04-18.76), respectively]. Other risk factors for drug-related hospitalisation indicated the likelihood of comorbid drug and mental health issues in GBM hospitalised for drug use.

Risk factors and burden of acute Q fever in older adults in New South Wales: a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To measure the acute burden of and to identify risk factors associated with notified Q fever in older adults in New South Wales.

DESIGN, SETTINGS AND PARTICIPANTS

A prospective cohort of adults aged 45 years and over (the 45 and Up Study) recruited during 2006-2009 and followed using linked Q fever notifications, hospital records and death records during 2006-2012.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Incident cases of Q fever, based on a linked Q fever notification; proportion of cases with a Q fever-coded hospitalisation.

RESULTS

A total of 266 906 participants were followed up for 1 254 650 person-years (mean, 4.7 ± 1.0 years per person). In our study population, the incidence of notified Q fever during follow-up was 3.6 (95% CI, 2.7-4.8) per 100 000 person-years. After adjustments, age (≥ 65 years v 45-54 years: hazard ratio [HR], 0.39; 95% CI, 0.16-0.96), sex (women v men: HR, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.26-0.88), and area and type of residence (P < 0.001 for trend) remained significantly associated with Q fever. Compared with those living in an inner regional area but not on a farm, the risk of notified Q fever was highest for those living on a farm in outer regional or remote areas (HR, 11.98; 95% CI, 5.47-26.21), followed by those living on a farm in inner regional areas (HR, 4.95; 95% CI, 1.79-13.65). Of notified Q fever cases, 15 of 39 (38%) had been hospitalised with a diagnosis consistent with Q fever.

CONCLUSIONS

Adults living on a farm in outer regional and remote areas are at a substantially greater risk of contracting Q fever. This suggests that, as well as targeting specific occupational groups for vaccination, there would be benefits in increasing public awareness of Q fever and vaccination among those living on and near farms in outer regional and remote areas of Australia.

Poor record linkage sensitivity biased outcomes in a linked cohort analysis

OBJECTIVES

To examine the validity of deterministic compared to probabilistic record linkage in the ascertainment of hospitalizations in two linked cohorts.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

HIV-negative (HIV-ve) (n = 1,325) and HIV-positive (HIV+ve) gay and bisexual men (n = 557) recruited in Sydney, Australia, were probabilistically and deterministically linked to a statewide hospital registry (July 2000-June 2012).

RESULTS

Using probabilistic linkage as the reference standard, deterministic linkage had higher specificity but much lower sensitivity [34.67% (95% confidence interval: 33.44, 35.92)]. A disproportionate number of links missed were individuals with poorer socioeconomic and health indicators, including HIV status. Risk of hospitalization compared to the general male population [HIV+ve standardized incidence ratio (SIR) = 1.45 (1.33-1.59); HIV-ve SIR = 0.72 (0.67-0.78)] was significantly underestimated when deterministic linkage was used [HIV+ve SIR = 0.46 (0.37-0.58); HIV-ve SIR = 0.29 (0.24-0.35)]. The impact of linkage strategy on the calculation of incidence rate ratios (IRRs) was less, but a greater discrepancy in IRRs was seen for diagnostic categories where event rates were low or where the sensitivity of the deterministic linkage was differential between the two cohorts.

CONCLUSION

Linkage without proven high sensitivity and specificity should be carefully considered. In circumstances of undetermined sensitivity, SIRs should not be calculated as the extent of underestimation is unknown. The comparison of linked events within or between cohorts is more robust to linkage misclassification; however, selection bias does affect estimates and should be considered before linkage.

Verification of measles elimination in Australia: Application of World Health Organization regional guidelines

Background: The World Health Organization (WHO) Western Pacific Region (WPR) Guidelines on verification of measles elimination were established in 2012. This article outlines Australia’s approach to addressing the guideline’s five lines of evidence, which led to formal verification of elimination by the WHO Regional Verification Commission (RVC) in March 2014.

Methods: The criteria were addressed using national measles notifications, data from selected laboratories, the national childhood immunization register, and three national serosurveys (1998/1999, 2002, 2007).

Results: Australia met or exceeded all indicator targets with either national or sentinel data. Laboratory and epidemiological surveillance were of high quality, with 85% of cases documented as imported/import-related (target 80%); coverage with the first dose of measles vaccine was close to 94% in 2008–2012 and second dose coverage increased to 91% in 2012 (target >95%). There is ongoing commitment by the Australian Government to increase immunization coverage, and the absence of sustained transmission of any single measles genotype was demonstrated.

Conclusions: This is the first documentation of the successful application of the WPR RVC guidelines. The indicators afford some flexibility but appear to provide appropriate rigor to judge achievement of measles elimination. Our experience could assist other countries seeking to verify their elimination status.

Hospitalisation rates and associated factors in community-based cohorts of HIV-infected and -uninfected gay and bisexual men

OBJECTIVES

There is evidence that HIV-positive patients are suffering from a greater burden of morbidity as they age due to nonAIDS-related complications. To date it has been difficult to determine what part of this excess risk is due to the health effects of HIV, its treatment or to lifestyle factors common to gay and bisexual men (GBM). We calculated overall and cause-specific hospitalisation rates and risk factors for hospitalisations in HIV-negative and HIV-positive cohorts of GBM and compare these with rates in the general male population.

METHODS

We conducted a record linkage study, linking two cohorts of HIV-negative (n = 1325) and HIV-positive (n = 557) GBM recruited in Sydney, New South Wales (NSW), Australia with the NSW hospital discharge data register. We compared rates of hospitalisation in the two cohorts and risk factors for hospitalisation using random-effects Poisson regression methods. Hospitalisation rates for each cohort were further compared with those in the general male population using indirect standardisation.

RESULTS

We observed 2032 hospitalisations in the HIV-negative cohort during 13,016 person-years (PYs) [crude rate: 15.6/100 PYs (95% CI: 14.9-16.3)] and 2130 hospitalisations in the HIV-positive cohort during 5571 PYs [crude rate: 38.2/100 PYs (95% CI: 36.6-39.9)]. HIV-positive individuals had an increased risk of hospitalisation compared with the HIV-negative individuals [adjusted-IRR: 2.34 (95% CI: 1.91-2.86)] and the general population [SHR: 1.45 (95% CI: 1.33-1.59)]. Hospitalisation rates were lower in the HIV-negative cohort compared with the general population [SHR: 0.72 (95% CI: 0.67-0.78)]. The primary causes of hospitalisation differed between groups.

CONCLUSIONS

HIV-positive GBM continue to experience excess morbidity compared with HIV-negative GBM men and the general population. HIV-negative GBM had lower morbidity compared with the general male population suggesting that GBM identity does not confer excess risk.

Febrile seizures following measles and varicella vaccines in young children in Australia

BACKGROUND

Febrile seizures (FS) are common in childhood with incidence peaking in the second year of life when measles and varicella-containing vaccines are administered. This study aimed to examine the vaccine-attributable risk of FS following separate administration of MMR and monovalent varicella vaccines (VV) prior to a planned change to MMRV as the second dose of measles-containing vaccine at 18 months of age.

METHODS

All FS cases in children aged <5 years from 1st January 2012 to 30th April 2013 were identified from emergency department (ED) and inpatient databases at five Australian tertiary paediatric hospitals participating in PAEDS (Paediatric Active Enhanced Disease Surveillance). Immunization records were obtained from the Australian Childhood Immunization Register (ACIR). The relative incidence (RI) of FS following MMR dose 1 (MMR1) and VV in children aged 11-23 months was determined using the self-controlled case series (SCCS) method and used to calculate attributable risk.

RESULTS

There were 2013 FS episodes in 1761 children. The peak age at FS was 18 months. The risk of FS was significantly increased 5-12 days post receipt of MMR1 at 12 months (RI=1.9 [95% CI: 1.3-2.9]), but not after VV at 18 months (RI=0.6 [95% CI: 0.3-1.2]. The estimated excess annual number of FS post MMR1 was 24 per 100,000 vaccinated children aged 11-23 months (95% CI=7-49 cases per 100,000) or 1 per 4167 doses.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study detected the expected increased FS risk post MMR1 vaccine at 12 months, but monovalent varicella vaccine at age 18 months was not associated with increased risk of FS. This provides baseline data to assess the risk of FS post MMRV, introduced in Australia as the second dose of measles-containing vaccine at 18 months of age in July 2013.

A new method for assessing how sensitivity and specificity of linkage studies affects estimation

Background

While the importance of record linkage is widely recognised, few studies have attempted to quantify how linkage errors may have impacted on their own findings and outcomes. Even where authors of linkage studies have attempted to estimate sensitivity and specificity based on subjects with known status, the effects of false negatives and positives on event rates and estimates of effect are not often described.

Methods

We present quantification of the effect of sensitivity and specificity of the linkage process on event rates and incidence, as well as the resultant effect on relative risks. Formulae to estimate the true number of events and estimated relative risk adjusted for given linkage sensitivity and specificity are then derived and applied to data from a prisoner mortality study. The implications of false positive and false negative matches are also discussed.

Discussion

Comparisons of the effect of sensitivity and specificity on incidence and relative risks indicate that it is more important for linkages to be highly specific than sensitive, particularly if true incidence rates are low. We would recommend that, where possible, some quantitative estimates of the sensitivity and specificity of the linkage process be performed, allowing the effect of these quantities on observed results to be assessed.

General practice encounters following seasonal influenza vaccination as a proxy measure of early-onset adverse events

BACKGROUND

In 2010, use of seasonal trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) in children <5 years of age was suspended in Australia following reports of vaccine-related febrile convulsions. We investigated the utility of data on primary care [general practice (GP)] consultations for any reason within three days of receipt of influenza vaccine as recorded on the Australian Childhood Immunisation Register (ACIR) as a means of signal detection.

METHODS

Data on GP consultations were obtained from Medicare Australia (Australian Government Department of Human Services) for children recorded on the ACIR as receiving either TIV or monovalent influenza vaccine. Rates of GP consultation by day following ACIR-recorded receipt of influenza vaccine were compared by year (2008-2010), vaccine type, age and region.

RESULTS

In 2010, GP encounter rates on the day after receipt of the TIV manufactured by bioCSL (formerly CSL Biotherapies (Fluvax(®)) were significantly higher than both bioCSL TIVs in the previous two years [rate ratio (RR) 1.9; 95% CI: 1.7-2.2] and Sanofi Pasteur TIV, Vaxigrip(®) [RR 1.6, 95% CI 1.4-1.7] in 2009-2010. Encounter rates were also higher than for CSL Monovalent influenza vaccine, Panvax(®) [RR 1.9, 95% CI 1.7-2.2] in 2009-2010. These findings were robust to adjustment for age group (≤ 2, >2 years) and region (Western Australia vs other Australian states/territories).

CONCLUSIONS

A primary care consultation on the day after vaccine receipt is a reasonable proxy for early reactogenicity and has potential for use in various settings.

Estimating the measles effective reproduction number in Australia from routine notification data

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the measles effective reproduction number (R) in Australia by modelling routinely collected notification data.

METHODS

R was estimated for 2009-2011 by means of three methods, using data from Australia's National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System. Method 1 estimated R as 1 - P, where P equals the proportion of cases that were imported, as determined from data on place of acquisition. The other methods estimated R by fitting a subcritical branching process that modelled the spread of an infection with a given R to the observed distributions of outbreak sizes (method 2) and generations of spread (method 3). Stata version 12 was used for method 2 and Matlab version R2012 was used for method 3. For all methods, calculation of 95% confidence intervals (CIs) was performed using a normal approximation based on estimated standard errors.

FINDINGS

During 2009-2011, 367 notifiable measles cases occurred in Australia (mean annual rate: 5.5 cases per million population). Data were 100% complete for importation status but 77% complete for outbreak reference number. R was estimated as < 1 for all years and data types, with values of 0.65 (95% CI: 0.60-0.70) obtained by method 1, 0.64 (95% CI: 0.56-0.72) by method 2 and 0.47 (95% CI: 0.38-0.57) by method 3.

CONCLUSION

The fact that consistent estimates of R were obtained from all three methods enhances confidence in the validity of these methods for determining R.

Country of birth and other factors associated with hepatitis B prevalence in a population with high levels of immigration

BACKGROUND AND AIM

While hepatitis B virus (HBV) prevalence is known to vary greatly between countries, systematically collected population-level prevalence data from some countries is limited. Antenatal HBV screening programs in countries with substantial migrant populations provide the opportunity to systematically examine HBV prevalence in order to inform local and regional HBV estimates.

METHODS

A comprehensive register of Australian mothers giving birth from January 2000 to December 2008 was linked to a register of HBV notifications. Age-standardized prevalence of chronic HBV were calculated overall and by the mother's country of birth. Multiple logistic regression was used to investigate other factors associated with HBV prevalence.

RESULTS

Five hundred twenty-three thousand six hundred sixty-five women were included and linked to 3861 HBV notifications. The age-standardized HBV prevalence was low (0.75%, 95% confidence interval 0.72-0.79). The highest HBV prevalence rates were observed in women born in Cambodia (8.60%), Taiwan (8.10%), Vietnam (7.49%), China (6.80%), and Tonga (6.51%). Among Australia-born women, those who smoked during pregnancy, were from a more disadvantaged socioeconomic background, and lived in remote areas were more likely to have HBV. There was also a trend suggesting a decrease in the prevalence of HBV over time.

CONCLUSIONS

Antenatal screening for HBV can provide systematic population estimates of HBV prevalence in migrants and also identify other high prevalence groups. Longer follow-up will be required to confirm the small decrease in HBV prevalence observed in this study.

Survival after diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma and potential impact of treatment in a hepatitis B or C infected cohort

AIM

  Little is known about the patterns of care and the impact of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treatment on health outcomes at a population level. We conducted a population-based cohort study to examine HCC survival trends among people diagnosed with hepatitis B (HBV) or hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, to determine predictors of receiving potentially curative therapy for HCC, and to examine the impact of HCC treatment on survival in New South Wales, Australia.

METHODS

  The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate survival, logistic regression to determine predictors of potentially curative therapy and Cox proportional hazards models to determine the impact of HCC treatment on survival. Years of potential life lost (YPLL) were calculated.

RESULTS

  During the period 1993-2007, 1081 cases of HCC were diagnosed. Median survival increased from 10.4 months during 1993-1997 to 18.4 months during 1998-2002, with no further improvement thereafter. Younger age at diagnosis (<65 years), being Asian-born and having multiple comorbid conditions increased the odds of receiving curative therapy. The effect of HCC treatment on the risk of mortality was similar between the HBV- and HCV-related HCC groups. Tumor-specific therapies had adjusted hazard ratios ranging 0.06-0.25 and palliative/supportive therapy alone had adjusted hazard ratios ranging 0.76-1.08. The average YPLL per person was 23.3.

CONCLUSION

  The burden of viral hepatitis-related HCC is substantial. Despite treatment advances in recent years, there has been no significant improvement in HCC survival. Efforts to improve HCC screening and early diagnosis are required to deliver curative treatment which clearly has a survival advantage.